ELECTORAL PREFERENCES MEXICO 2006 Nobody’s Unpredictable NATIONAL SURVEYS CONDUCTED BY IPSOS-BIMSA...

ELECTORAL PREFERENCESMEXICO 2006

Nobody’s Unpredictable

NATIONAL SURVEYS CONDUCTED BY IPSOS-BIMSA FROM SEPTEMBER 2003-NOVEMBER 2005

2

2

POLL OF POLLSOctober-November 2006

FIRMDemotécnia

(Mileno Diario)Ipsos - Bimsa

GEA - ISA GausscConsulta Mitofsky

Reforma

Felipe Calderón (PAN) 25 27 29 34 29 32

Roberto Madrazo (PRI) 29 30 27 29 30 24

A.M. López Obrador (PRD)

39 35 38 34 35 33

Bernardo de la Garza (PVEM)

5 6 - - 5 8

Otros 2 2 6 3 1 3

TOTAL 100 100 100 100 100 100

(1st place - 2nd place) 10 5 9 0 5 1

1st place - 3rd place) 14 8 11 5 6 9

3

3

VOTE CHOICE 2006KEY VARIABLES

INDEPENDENT VOTERS

PRESIDENTIALAPPROVAL

PARTISANSHIP

STATE OF THEECONOMY

CANDIDATES' POPULARITY

VOTE CHOICE

2006

4

4

1.- CANDIDATES’ POPULARITY

5

5

NAME RECOGNITION AMLO, ROBERTO MADRAZO & FELIPE

CALDERÓN

9796

939494949392 91 93 95 99

949696

9291918990948887

87 84

61

5043

5050

60

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

SEP 03 NOV 03 FEB 04 MAR 04 ABR 04 MAY 04 AGO 04 NOV 04 FEB 05 MAY 05 AGO 05 NOV 05

% NAME RECOGNITION AMLO % NAME RECOGNITION MADRAZO

% NAME RECOGNITION CALDERÓN

6

6

50

60

5043

50

61

84

31

13135

8 10 7

14 1210914 14 16

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

MAY 04 AGO 04 NOV 04 FEB 05 MAY 05 AGO 05 NOV 05

% NAME RECOGNITION % POSITIVE OPINIONS % NEGATIVE OPINIONS

IMAGE OF FELIPE CALDERÓNDo you have a positive or negative opinion about FELIPE

CALDERÓN?. (%)

POSITIVE OPINIONS

DK/NA ARE NOT REPORTED

7

7

9496969287 87 88

9490 89 91 91

3729

3829

3630303038

39 3236

25302831

2525232026232521

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100


% NAME RECOGNITION % NEGATIVE OPINIONS % POSITIVE OPINIONS

IMAGE OF ROBERTO MADRAZODo you have a positive or negative opinion about ROBERTO

MADRAZO? (%)


8

8

9796999592 91 93 94 94 94 93 93

4348

5046

5144

3842

5460 58 58

1614169

17 1612161712 7

9

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100


% NAME RECOGNITION % POSITIVE OPINIONS % NEGATIVE OPINIONS

IMAGE OF ANDRÉS MANUEL LÓPEZ OBRADOR

Do you have a positive or negative opinion about ANDRÉS MANUEL LÓPEZ OBRADOR? (%)


9

9

2.- PARTISANSHIP

10

10

PARTY IDENTIFICATION(%)

19

20

1516

18232221

26

2623

2421

29

2623

26 25

2425

3028272728 282829

24

2530

29 31

28

14

1215

13121516 1415

1613

1314

1215 15

1114

404041

403937

3433323132 32

35

27

35

27

28

29

0

10

20

30

40

50

JUL03

(ExitPoll)

SEP03

NOV03

FEB04

MAR04

MAY04

AGO04

SEP04

NOV04

NOV04

FEB05

FEB05

MAR05

MAY05

MAY05

JUL05

AGO05

NOV05

PANISTAS PRIISTAS PERREDISTAS INDEPENDENTS

11

11NO SE MUESTRA EL PORCENTAJE DE NS/NC

ELECTORAL CHOICE BY PARTY IDENTIFICATION(% NOVEMBER 2005)

32

92

1014

78

410

66

23

80

0

50

100

FELIPE CALDERÓN ROBERTO MADRAZOANDRÉS MANUEL LÓPEZ OBRADOR

PANISTAS PRIÍSTAS PERREDISTAS INDEPENDIENTES

Non response and support for others are not shown

12

12

PARTISAN COHESION

80

657172

69

56 54

66

6661

6975 71 71

74

67

76

68

77

78

73

73

72

71

71

7774

8074

6661

69

7066

6166

76

65

8891

979191

95

8794908888

8490

868385

8993 92

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

SEP03

MAR04

ABR04

MAY04

AGO04

SEP04

NOV04

DIC 04

FEB05

FEB05

MAR05

MAY05

MAY05

JUN05

JUL05

AGO05

AGO05

OCT05

NOV05

PANISTAS' SUPPORT FOR THEIR CANDIDATE PRIISTAS' SUPPORT FOR THEIR CANDIDATE

PERREDISTAS' SUPPORT FOR THEIR CANDIDATE

IN NOV. 2005 FELIPE CALDERÓN IS PAN`S CANDIDATE.

13

13

ELECTORAL SCENARIO

27 29

36

8

2832 33

7

FELIPE CALDERÓN ROBERTO MADRAZO ANDRÉS MANUELLÓPEZ OBRADOR

OTROS

SCENARIO: ALL PARTIES WITH THE SAME LEVEL OF PARTY COHESION

14

14

3.- INDEPENDENTS

15

15

PARTY IDENTIFICATION

6060596063

73

6568 68 6573 72 71

68 66

4040414037343232 32 35

2735

27 28 29

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

JUL 03(ExitPoll)

SEP 03 NOV 03 FEB 04 MAR 04 MAY 04 AGO 04 SEP 04 NOV 04 FEB 05 MAR 05 MAY 05 JUL 05 AGO 05 NOV 05

PARTISANS INDEPENDENTS

16

16

INDEPENDENTS

14

12111314

16

9

15

15

1311 141714151413 14

1110

12111515

1410

1315

101011101288

811 9

323737

4136

475047434246

2837

3338

32

23

3840

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

SEP03

MAR04

ABR04

MAY04

AGO04

SEP04

NOV04

DIC 04

FEB05

FEB05

MAR05

MAY05

MAY05

JUN05

JUL05

AGO05

AGO05

OCT05

NOV05

SANTIAGO CREEL/FELIPE CALDERÓN ROBERTO MADRAZO ANDRÉS MANUEL LÓPEZ OBRADOR

IN NOV. 2005 FELIPE CALDERÓN IS PAN’S CANDIDATE

ELECTORAL PREFERENCES OF INDEPENDENTS

DK/NA and support for others are not shown

VIDEOSCANDALS IMPEACHMENT PROCESS

17

17

4.- PRESIDENTIAL APPROVAL

18


5150

39

3337

65

2929

34

1919

22

31

55

0

10

20

30

40

50

60


APPROVE A LOT

SOMEWHAT APPROVE

NEUTRALSOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE

DISAPPROVE A LOT

PRESIDENTIAL APPROVAL AND PARTISAN CHOICE

19

19

PRESIDENTIAL APPROVAL

NO SE MUESTRA EL PORCENTAJE DE NS/NC

50 51

59

505552

515153575454 52

1921

1822

20211820

1211

1917

19

3126

21

272425

3027

3229

2527 27

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

JUL 03(ExitPoll)

NOV 03 FEB 04 MAR 04 ABR 04 MAY 04 AGO 04 NOV 04 FEB 05 MAR 05 JUN 05 AGO 05 NOV 05

APPROVE NEUTRAL DISAPPROVE

DK/NA ARE NOT SHOWN

20

20

5.- STATE OF THE ECONOMY

21


ECONOMY HAS IMPROVED STAYS THE SAMEECONOMY HAS

WORSENED

52

40

22

3226

1815

29

52

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

NO SE MUESTRA EL PORCENTAJE DE NS/NC


STATE OF THE ECONOMY IN COMPARISON TO ONE YEAR AGO AND PARTISAN CHOICE

22

22

STATE OF THE ECONOMY IN COMPARISON TO ONE YEAR AGO

29

20

18182320 22

18

45 45

53

36

4139

4952

2523

28

35

43

37 3136

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

SEP 03 NOV 03 FEB 04 MAY 04 NOV 04 FEB 05 AGO 05 NOV 05

HAS IMPROVED STAYS THE SAME HAS WORSENED

NO SE MUESTRA EL PORCENTAJE DE NS/NCDK/NA ARE NOT SHOWN

23

23

PREFERENCIA ELECTORAL POR PARTIDO

CONCLUSIONS

24

24

POPULARITY ? X .PARTISANSHIP . . XINDEPENDENTS X? X . PRESIDENTIAL APPROVAL . X XSTATE OF THE ECONOMY ? ? ?

PERSPECTIVAS DE LOS CANDIDATOS

ELECTORAL PREFERENCES MEXICO 2006 Nobody’s Unpredictable NATIONAL SURVEYS CONDUCTED BY IPSOS-BIMSA...

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