Electoral College Consequences
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Transcript of Electoral College Consequences
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Electoral College Consequences
Winner-take-all Winner-take-all Battleground statesBattleground states
Targeted in campaignsTargeted in campaignsPolicy benefitsPolicy benefits
Depresses turnoutDepresses turnout Build broad geographical coalition Build broad geographical coalition Misfire?Misfire?
Bush 3.5 million popular vote marginBush 3.5 million popular vote margin Swing of 150,000 votes in OhioSwing of 150,000 votes in Ohio
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Britain’s Division Head of StateHead of State
Head of Government
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President wears “many hats”
Chief of State Chief of State Manager of the Economy Manager of the Economy Chief Executive Chief Executive Commander-in-Chief Commander-in-Chief Chief Diplomat Chief Diplomat Chief Legislator Chief Legislator Chief of the Party Chief of the Party World LeaderWorld Leader
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Constitutional Basics
Normative ?-- Normative ?-- Hamilton, Fed No. 70. Hamilton, Fed No. 70. Energy in the Executive Energy in the Executive one person officeone person office elected for a fixed termelected for a fixed term national constituencynational constituency Vague formal powers from ConstitutionVague formal powers from Constitution
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Constitutional DNA
HamiltonHamilton ““Energy in the Energy in the
Executive”Executive” One person officeOne person office Fixed termFixed term National National
constituencyconstituency Vague formal Vague formal
powerspowers
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Few Formal Executive Powers
• Administrative head of government
• Commander-in-Chief of military
• Veto (or sign) legislation
• Nominate judges, cabinet secretaries
• Treaties, pardons, convene Congress
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Modern Presidency
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FDR’s Legacy
Wins World War IIWins World War II Ends the Great DepressionEnds the Great Depression Ends economic insecurity with Social Ends economic insecurity with Social
SecuritySecurity Fights for working man (unions, Fights for working man (unions,
minimum wage)minimum wage) Reduces agricultural poverty (farm Reduces agricultural poverty (farm
supports)supports)
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The Modern PresidencyWWII onward
The FDR Standard (1932-45)
• Emphasis on leadership & bully pulpit• National problems• New role for federal government• President as active leader• Welfare state• Expanded executive branch (budget)
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Paradox of the Modern Presidency President is #1President is #1
Increased expectations of presidencyIncreased expectations of presidency Increased staff, resourcesIncreased staff, resources Shift in quality and quantity of attention paid to Shift in quality and quantity of attention paid to
president president Chief policy-makerChief policy-maker
BUTBUT No change in formal powers!No change in formal powers!
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New American President--Power of Clark Kent --Expectations of Superman
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Going Public Strategy
PresidentsPresidents Marshall public support for their policies Marshall public support for their policies
and actionsand actions Cultivate popular cultural image of Cultivate popular cultural image of
themselvesthemselves
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Public Approval of President
Three general trendsThree general trends Declines while in officeDeclines while in office EconomyEconomy Rally events and scandalsRally events and scandals
Beyond Presidential ControlBeyond Presidential Control
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The Current Incumbent30
4050
6070
8090
100
June 049/11 Iraq SaddamInaug
George W. Bush Approval Ratings
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Bush- Social Security Roadtrip
Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling Social Security (USA Today/Gallup)
47
41 43
35
40
5248
56
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
2002 2005/1 2005/2 2005/3
Approve Disapprove
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What is George W. Bush’s image?
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Macho
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“Mission Accomplished”
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Cowboy (not wimp)
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Compassionate Conservative
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Education President
====
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Likes Children and Baseball
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Patriotism
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Going Public
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Alternative Image?
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Institutional Presidency
Jefferson in 1900 had 2 assistantsJefferson in 1900 had 2 assistants Brownlow CommitteeBrownlow Committee
““The president needs helpThe president needs help”” President not Congress should be in charge President not Congress should be in charge
of executive branchof executive branch
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Presidency is Many People
EOP: OMB, NSC, CEA, “czars,” VP,and WHO
WHO: close advisors,no Senate approval
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Where is the Power?
Cabinet OfficialsCabinet Officials Department of StateDepartment of State Department of Department of
Defense Defense Department of Department of
TreasuryTreasury
Exec. Office of Pres.Exec. Office of Pres. White House Office White House Office
(WHO)(WHO) NSCNSC OMBOMB CEACEA
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Institutional Presidency I: West Wing
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Institutional Presidency II: OEOB
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Implications of Instit. Pres
Radical change in system of government?Radical change in system of government? Increased presidential control of policy Increased presidential control of policy
making and centralization of the decision making and centralization of the decision makingmaking
Increases potential for screw upsIncreases potential for screw ups Reduced accountabilityReduced accountability
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Transition from Historical to Modern Presidency Historic PresidencyHistoric Presidency
President is a clerkPresident is a clerk Congress #1Congress #1
Modern PresidencyModern Presidency Increased popular expectationsIncreased popular expectations President #1President #1 No change in formal powersNo change in formal powers
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Modern Presidents Response
Devote tremendous time and resources to Devote tremendous time and resources to manipulating public image manipulating public image Going publicGoing public
Have immense staff of political, policy, and Have immense staff of political, policy, and partisan expertspartisan experts Institutional presidencyInstitutional presidency
Are presidents stronger– YES, but Are presidents stronger– YES, but expectations outstrip capacityexpectations outstrip capacity
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World’s Greatest Clerkship
Neustadt, Presidential Power (Al’s prof)Neustadt, Presidential Power (Al’s prof) power of president do not flow from literary power of president do not flow from literary
reading of constitutionreading of constitution Decisions are not self executing JFK, Cuban Decisions are not self executing JFK, Cuban
Missile CrisisMissile Crisis "The conditions that promote his leadership in "The conditions that promote his leadership in
form, preclude a guarantee of leadership in form, preclude a guarantee of leadership in fact." fact."
““presidential power is power to bargain”presidential power is power to bargain”
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Limited formal powers=constant bargaining President canPresident can
Nominate judges, butNominate judges, but Propose trade treaties, butPropose trade treaties, but Propose popular legislation, butPropose popular legislation, but Propose spending less on military golf courses,Propose spending less on military golf courses,
Will Presidents keep their promises?Will Presidents keep their promises? Constitutional odds are stacked against them!Constitutional odds are stacked against them!
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Presidential power = persuasion
Formal powers are minimalFormal powers are minimal Can propose legislation, C in CCan propose legislation, C in C Dependent on other institutions Dependent on other institutions
Informal powers are crucialInformal powers are crucial Presidential power is power to persuadePresidential power is power to persuade Presidents have to bargainPresidents have to bargain
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Informal Powers
Professional reputationProfessional reputation Electoral resultsElectoral results BargainingBargaining
Carrot and the stickCarrot and the stick Marshalling public opinion (going public)Marshalling public opinion (going public)
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The Stick and Senator Shelby
Dem criticizes Dem criticizes Clinton’s BudgetClinton’s Budget
Space Shuttle to TXSpace Shuttle to TX No Tickets for ‘Bama No Tickets for ‘Bama
Celebration at WHCelebration at WH Shelby’s response?Shelby’s response?
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Unsuccessful Persuasion
Clinton Campaign PromiseClinton Campaign Promise Allow gays and lesbians to serve openly in Allow gays and lesbians to serve openly in
militarymilitary CongressCongress
Sam Nunn (D-GA) on the submarineSam Nunn (D-GA) on the submarine Don’t ask, don’t tell in Family Medical Leave Don’t ask, don’t tell in Family Medical Leave
ActAct C in C of MilitaryC in C of Military
Cruising chat rooms and gay barsCruising chat rooms and gay bars
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Success of Don’t Ask/Don’t Tell
Source: CNN Special Source: CNN Special ReportReport
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Truman and Marshall Plan
Truman’s prospects for Aid to EuropeTruman’s prospects for Aid to Europe Un-elected presidentUn-elected president Very unpopularVery unpopular Large GOP majorities in CongressLarge GOP majorities in Congress Memory of Great DepressionMemory of Great Depression Increasing IsolationismIncreasing Isolationism
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Ranking Presidents
Will history judge Bill Clinton as a great Will history judge Bill Clinton as a great president? George W. Bush?president? George W. Bush?
Why or why not?Why or why not?
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Ranking Post WW II Presidents
Good/GreatGood/Great TrumanTruman EisenhowerEisenhower JFKJFK
–LBJLBJ–ReaganReagan–ClintonClinton
Why such variety?Why such variety?
Bad/FailuresBad/Failures NixonNixon FordFord CarterCarter Bush (41)Bush (41)
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Greenstein
Executive branch “reflects the character and Executive branch “reflects the character and personality of the president”personality of the president”
highly personalized nature of modern highly personalized nature of modern American PresidencyAmerican Presidency
Presidential success = Characteristics of Presidential success = Characteristics of Individual PresidentIndividual President
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Effectiveness as Public Communicator
Bully PulpitBully Pulpit
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Organizational Capacity
LoyaltyLoyalty Candid discussion Candid discussion Prevent group-thinkPrevent group-think
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Political Skill
Establish reputation as Establish reputation as “skilled operator”“skilled operator”
Opposes, then SignsOpposes, then Signs Corporate Corporate
Responsibility ActResponsibility Act Homeland SecurityHomeland Security
Public opposesPublic opposes Tax CutsTax Cuts War in IraqWar in Iraq
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Vision Thing
Possession of a set of Possession of a set of overarching goalsoverarching goals
Over-rated?Over-rated?
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Cognitive Style
Presidency not a Presidency not a multiple choice testmultiple choice test
Reagan vs. CarterReagan vs. Carter
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Emotional Intelligence
DisturbedDisturbed NixonNixon LBJLBJ
Risk-takersRisk-takers JFKJFK ClintonClinton
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Skrownek
Presidents in Historical TimePresidents in Historical Time Times affects nature of skillTimes affects nature of skill
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Political time as a resource for or constraint on a president
Regime Regime strengthstrength
President’s Party AffiliationPresident’s Party Affiliation
OpposedOpposed Affiliated Affiliated
Vulnerable regimeVulnerable regime Reconstructive Reconstructive presidentpresident
Disjunctive Disjunctive presidentpresident
Resilient regimeResilient regime Preemptive Preemptive presidentpresident
Articulator Articulator (Faithful Son) (Faithful Son)
presidentpresident
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Political Time
The idea that at any given time there is a The idea that at any given time there is a dominant ideological regime, connected to, dominant ideological regime, connected to, but even broader than party. but even broader than party.
A president’s party’s relationship to the A president’s party’s relationship to the dominant partisan regime LIMITS or dominant partisan regime LIMITS or EXPANDS a president’s legitimate EXPANDS a president’s legitimate authority to change national policiesauthority to change national policies
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Politics of Reconstruction
Greatest potential for Greatest potential for leadershipleadership
New ideological New ideological commitmentscommitments
Create new political Create new political coalitionscoalitions
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Politics of Preemption
Constrained by dominant Constrained by dominant ideological regimeideological regime ““Era of big government Era of big government
is dead” NAFTA, is dead” NAFTA, Welfare reform, Welfare reform, balanced budgetbalanced budget
Focus on creative political Focus on creative political leadershipleadership V-Chip, New CovenantV-Chip, New Covenant
Danger or personal Danger or personal political isolationpolitical isolation
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Politics of Articulation
““Normal” situationNormal” situation Deliver on Regime’s Deliver on Regime’s
unfulfilled policy agendaunfulfilled policy agenda Tax cuts, deregulation, Tax cuts, deregulation,
moral issuesmoral issues Partial birth abortion, Partial birth abortion,
abstinence education, gay abstinence education, gay marriagemarriage
Maintain Political CoalitionMaintain Political Coalition Prevent Moral-Economic Prevent Moral-Economic
splitsplit
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Is a strong president good?
FramersFramers Can a president represent an entire nationCan a president represent an entire nation Woodrow Wilson/Teddy Roosevelt critiqueWoodrow Wilson/Teddy Roosevelt critique
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Presidential Power- 2 views
It is not only the president’s "right, but his duty to It is not only the president’s "right, but his duty to do anything that the needs of the nation demanded do anything that the needs of the nation demanded unless such action was forbidden by the Congress." unless such action was forbidden by the Congress." T. RooseveltT. Roosevelt
The president can exercise no power which cannot The president can exercise no power which cannot be fairly and reasonably traced to some specific be fairly and reasonably traced to some specific grant of power .. either in the federal constitution or grant of power .. either in the federal constitution or in an act of Congress. There is no undefined in an act of Congress. There is no undefined residuum of power which he can exercise because it residuum of power which he can exercise because it seems to him to be in the public interest. William seems to him to be in the public interest. William Taft 1916.Taft 1916.