Electoral CollegeElectoral CollegeAP Lectures 2012AP Lectures 2012

Dr. Rebecca DeenDr. Rebecca DeenDepartment of Political ScienceDepartment of Political Science

UT ArlingtonUT Arlingtondeen@uta.edudeen@uta.edu

Outline of today’s Outline of today’s conversationconversation

Electoral College & the ConstitutionElectoral College & the Constitution History of its implementation (unintended consequences)History of its implementation (unintended consequences)

Election of 1800Election of 1800 The mechanics of the ECThe mechanics of the EC Perceived structural problemsPerceived structural problems

Faithless electorsFaithless electors House electionHouse election

Election of 1824Election of 1824 EC winner and nationwide popular vote not the same outcome EC winner and nationwide popular vote not the same outcome

(so-called “wrong winner”)(so-called “wrong winner”) Election of 1888, 2000Election of 1888, 2000 Close call elections – 1876, 1960Close call elections – 1876, 1960

How the EC effects contemporary campaigns for the How the EC effects contemporary campaigns for the presidency – “electoral college math”presidency – “electoral college math”

Electoral College HistoryElectoral College History

http://www.archives.gov/federal-register/electoral-college/about.html

Issues before the Constitutional ConventionIssues before the Constitutional Convention Balance the experiences of the colonistsBalance the experiences of the colonists

Tyranny under Great BritainTyranny under Great Britain Ineffective government under Articles of ConfederationIneffective government under Articles of Confederation

Conflicts and CompromisesConflicts and Compromises How does creating the Executive fit into this discussion?How does creating the Executive fit into this discussion?

One of the ways these tensions were manifested One of the ways these tensions were manifested was in the method of selecting the President and was in the method of selecting the President and the length of his term.the length of his term.

Rules and the Structure Rules and the Structure of Debate Matterof Debate Matter

Life tenure? Hereditary succession?Life tenure? Hereditary succession?

Rejected both of these, but beyond that, Rejected both of these, but beyond that, though, little consensus. Several ideas though, little consensus. Several ideas were floated:were floated:

Legislative selection?Legislative selection? Pro?Pro? Con?Con?

Rules/Structure cont’Rules/Structure cont’

Legislative Selection would threaten executive Legislative Selection would threaten executive independence and autonomyindependence and autonomy

Way to avoid that would be to have one long termWay to avoid that would be to have one long term

Problem? Problem? No accountability – not reflective of republican idealsNo accountability – not reflective of republican ideals

The Framers decided that this term limit was The Framers decided that this term limit was undesirable and the advocates for its removal had undesirable and the advocates for its removal had the votes, so it was removed. However, once it was the votes, so it was removed. However, once it was removed, the long term wasn’t so attractive, so it removed, the long term wasn’t so attractive, so it was shortened.was shortened.

Once the term was shorted and reelection made Once the term was shorted and reelection made possible, congressional selection didn’t look so good.possible, congressional selection didn’t look so good.

Rules/Structure cont’Rules/Structure cont’

Direct election by populace?Direct election by populace? Was reconsidered briefly, but was rejected Was reconsidered briefly, but was rejected

(was twice defeated by overwhelming votes).(was twice defeated by overwhelming votes). In addition to fearing direct democracy, the framers In addition to fearing direct democracy, the framers

considered a national election impracticalconsidered a national election impractical Regional sectionalism too divisiveRegional sectionalism too divisive Worry about regional “favorite sons” who would Worry about regional “favorite sons” who would

govern with interests of region and not nationgovern with interests of region and not nation (“We the People” from Preamble to Constitution)(“We the People” from Preamble to Constitution)

Rules/Structure cont’Rules/Structure cont’

Section through intermediariesSection through intermediaries Senators were already chosen through Senators were already chosen through

state legislaturesstate legislatures Another kind of intermediary body? - Another kind of intermediary body? -

Electoral CollegeElectoral College Late in sessionLate in session Drew on other compromisesDrew on other compromises Reflected federalismReflected federalism Independence of electors protected. Independence of electors protected.

Unintended ConsequencesUnintended ConsequencesElection of 1800Election of 1800

http://www.history.org/history/teaching/enewsletter/volume7/oct08/teachstrategy.cfm

Historical contextHistorical context

Young nation – tenuous international relationshipsYoung nation – tenuous international relationships Political disagreements over Constitution still Political disagreements over Constitution still

presentpresent Antifederalists Antifederalists Jeffersonian Democrats Jeffersonian Democrats

Federal v. state powerFederal v. state power Slavery, taxes, landSlavery, taxes, land

Campaign of 1800Campaign of 1800 Fierce battleFierce battle Outcome – Jefferson & Burr tied in EC with 73 votesOutcome – Jefferson & Burr tied in EC with 73 votes Adams (Federalist) – 65 votesAdams (Federalist) – 65 votes

1212thth Amendment Amendment

Separate votes for P and VPSeparate votes for P and VP This is concurrent with the rise of This is concurrent with the rise of

political parties, which were not political parties, which were not accounted for by Framersaccounted for by Framers

Reinforced federalism – states decide Reinforced federalism – states decide their own elections lawstheir own elections laws

Mechanics of Mechanics of Electoral College todayElectoral College today

http://www.archives.gov/federal-register/electoral-college/state_responsibilities.html#dates

Elector allocation – based on Great CompromiseElector allocation – based on Great Compromise 538 electors – 270 to win538 electors – 270 to win

States have chosen to cast votes en bloc, with States have chosen to cast votes en bloc, with the exception of Maine and Nebraskathe exception of Maine and Nebraska Plurality of the state wide vote Plurality of the state wide vote all the state’s electors all the state’s electors

December - the electors meet in their respective December - the electors meet in their respective states and votestates and vote Vote is mailed to VP (who is P of Senate)Vote is mailed to VP (who is P of Senate)

January - VP announces the vote on the floor of January - VP announces the vote on the floor of the Senate.the Senate. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BcGt8hQZzg4 from from

20092009

Mechanics cont’Mechanics cont’

If no majority in Electoral CollegeIf no majority in Electoral College

House decides P with each state getting House decides P with each state getting 1 vote.1 vote.

Senate picks VPSenate picks VP

Effects of EC rulesEffects of EC rules

Magnifies outcome – 1992 as an Magnifies outcome – 1992 as an exampleexample

CandidateCandidate Popular vote %Popular vote % EC %EC %

ClintonClinton 4343 6868

BushBush 3838 3131

PerotPerot 1919 00

Effects cont’Effects cont’

Not neutralNot neutral Large states --can win just by winning the Large states --can win just by winning the

12 largest + 2 more12 largest + 2 more CA has 1/5 of all EC votes neededCA has 1/5 of all EC votes needed

Small states Small states Competitive States, and especially Competitive States, and especially

dependable and cohesive voting blocks dependable and cohesive voting blocks within those stateswithin those states

Goux and Hopkins 2008 Goux and Hopkins 2008 Charnock, McCann and Tenpas 2009Charnock, McCann and Tenpas 2009

Perceived Structural Perceived Structural ProblemsProblems

What is the biggest fear? - “wrong What is the biggest fear? - “wrong winner”winner”

Faithless electorsFaithless electors Rare Rare http://archive.fairvote.org/e_college/faithless.htm#1http://archive.fairvote.org/e_college/faithless.htm#1

Barbara Lett-Simons - 2000 Barbara Lett-Simons - 2000 Gore elector from DCGore elector from DC

State have varied laws on electorsState have varied laws on electors http://www.archives.gov/federal-register/electoral-college/laws.htmlhttp://www.archives.gov/federal-register/electoral-college/laws.html

Perceived problems cont’Perceived problems cont’

House electionHouse election Compromise with the 2Compromise with the 2ndnd or 3 or 3rdrd place candidate place candidate

Already saw this with election of 1800Already saw this with election of 1800

1824 - Andrew Jackson garnered some support beyond his 1824 - Andrew Jackson garnered some support beyond his regional base, however, wasn’t strong enough – he got a regional base, however, wasn’t strong enough – he got a plurality but not a majority of the EC.plurality but not a majority of the EC.

Went to the House who chose John Quincy Adams by one vote.Went to the House who chose John Quincy Adams by one vote. Henry Clay, Speaker of the House, was the distant 4th in the race. Henry Clay, Speaker of the House, was the distant 4th in the race.

His supporters in the House, threw their support behind Adams, His supporters in the House, threw their support behind Adams, defeating Jackson.defeating Jackson.

Clay was appointed Secretary of State and Jackson was furious, Clay was appointed Secretary of State and Jackson was furious, charging a corrupt bargain.charging a corrupt bargain.

http://millercenter.org/president/jqadams/essays/http://millercenter.org/president/jqadams/essays/biography/3biography/3

Perceived problems cont’Perceived problems cont’

Win nation wide popular vote but not the EC majorityWin nation wide popular vote but not the EC majority Election of 1888Election of 1888

Cleveland won plurality but lost in EC to Harrison. 3000 votes Cleveland won plurality but lost in EC to Harrison. 3000 votes in IN and 15000 in NY made difference.in IN and 15000 in NY made difference.

http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/showelection.php?year=1888http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/showelection.php?year=1888

““The election outcome gave President Cleveland approximately The election outcome gave President Cleveland approximately 90,000 popular votes more than Harrison, but Harrison carried 90,000 popular votes more than Harrison, but Harrison carried the electoral college 233 to 168. Harrison's victory was based the electoral college 233 to 168. Harrison's victory was based upon two swing states: New York and Indiana.”upon two swing states: New York and Indiana.”

http://millercenter.org/president/bharrison/essays/biography/3http://millercenter.org/president/bharrison/essays/biography/3

Hypothetical exampleHypothetical exampleSay you won each of these by 51% of the state’s voters (which would mean you’d get all the EC votes)Say you won each of these by 51% of the state’s voters (which would mean you’d get all the EC votes)

ECEC 51% of vote51% of voteININ 1212 1,621,8801,621,880FLFL 2525 3,336,3303,336,330MIMI 1818 2,214,3732,214,373PAPA 2323 3,056,4313,056,431OHOH 2121 3,336,8943,336,894

9999 13,565,90813,565,908

Win small or moderate states with large marginsWin small or moderate states with large marginsBut here you win roughly the same % of popular vote, but don’t get nearly the EC votesBut here you win roughly the same % of popular vote, but don’t get nearly the EC votes

AKAK 66 1,729,5941,729,594KYKY 88 2,731,2022,731,202MSMS 77 1,640,1501,640,150OROR 77 1,774,4491,774,449WVWV 55 1,349,9001,349,900

2727 9,225,2959,225,295

Election of 2000Election of 2000 Gore-Lieberman 267 EC, Gore-Lieberman 267 EC,

50,999,897 (48.38%) national popular vote50,999,897 (48.38%) national popular votehttp://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/showelection.php?year=2000

Other “close calls”Other “close calls”

Truman v. Dewey 1948Truman v. Dewey 1948 12500 in CA would have changed 12500 in CA would have changed

outcomeoutcome Kennedy v. Nixon 1960Kennedy v. Nixon 1960

900 votes in IA and MS would have 900 votes in IA and MS would have deprived JFK the EC majority.deprived JFK the EC majority.

Other close calls cont’Other close calls cont’

However, the race that had many parallels However, the race that had many parallels to 2000: 1876to 2000: 1876

Tilden v. HayesTilden v. Hayes ReconstructionReconstruction Economic recessionEconomic recession Contested slates of electors (LA, FL, SC)Contested slates of electors (LA, FL, SC)

http://elections.harpweek.com/http://elections.harpweek.com/controversy.htmcontroversy.htm

Hayes v. Tilden cont’Hayes v. Tilden cont’

Very long and contested battle between the Republican Hayes Very long and contested battle between the Republican Hayes and Democratic challenger Tilden. It appeared after the and Democratic challenger Tilden. It appeared after the election that Tilden had won, in what would be the first victory election that Tilden had won, in what would be the first victory for the Democrats since before the Civil War.for the Democrats since before the Civil War.

With 20 electoral votes in dispute, the resolution was brokered With 20 electoral votes in dispute, the resolution was brokered by an Electoral Commission and a series of backroom by an Electoral Commission and a series of backroom negotiationsnegotiations

The result was the GOP retaining presidency and the federal The result was the GOP retaining presidency and the federal government giving home rule back to South – the end of government giving home rule back to South – the end of Reconstruction.Reconstruction.

Library of Congress portal for scores of digital resources on Library of Congress portal for scores of digital resources on election of 1876election of 1876

http://www.loc.gov/rr/program/bib/elections/election1876.htmlhttp://www.loc.gov/rr/program/bib/elections/election1876.html

How will this affect 2012?How will this affect 2012?

We will examine several Electoral We will examine several Electoral College calculators as we explore the College calculators as we explore the truth that the rules of the game truth that the rules of the game affect the way the game is playedaffect the way the game is played

Let’s start by comparing and Let’s start by comparing and contrasting the primary/nomination contrasting the primary/nomination season with the general election:season with the general election:

Primaries & Caucuses – the Primaries & Caucuses – the fight for the nominationfight for the nomination

Rules in place here are set by partyRules in place here are set by party

Magic number of delegates set by partyMagic number of delegates set by party

The method of allocating the delegates across each state is set by The method of allocating the delegates across each state is set by party and stateparty and state Democrats have proportional with a thresholdDemocrats have proportional with a threshold Republicans generally allow states to choose between Republicans generally allow states to choose between

proportional and winner take allproportional and winner take all

Example of GOP in 2012 - chose a winner-take-all and Example of GOP in 2012 - chose a winner-take-all and proportional hybrid, which prohibited WTA states prior to proportional hybrid, which prohibited WTA states prior to April 1, 2012. April 1, 2012.

http://www.cbsnews.com/primary-election-results-2012/scorecard.shtml?party=R&tag=contentMain;contentBohttp://http://www.cbsnews.com/primary-election-results-2012/scorecard.shtml?party=R&tag=contentMain;contentBohttp://www.cbsnews.com/primary-election-results-2012/scorecard.shtml?party=R&tag=contentMain;contentBodywww.cbsnews.com/primary-election-results-2012/scorecard.shtml?party=R&tag=contentMain;contentBody

Fight for nomination cont’Fight for nomination cont’

StrategiesStrategies Appeal to your base as a function of Appeal to your base as a function of

turnout & PIDturnout & PID Early money and winning is importantEarly money and winning is important

In WTA systems it’s win or go homeIn WTA systems it’s win or go home In proportional systems, early money buys you In proportional systems, early money buys you

viability, which then helps you raise more money viability, which then helps you raise more money – you’ll need for a long fight (example – Romney)– you’ll need for a long fight (example – Romney)

General Election rules General Election rules gamegame

““Rule structure” is based on ECRule structure” is based on EC A 50 state strategy doesn’t make senseA 50 state strategy doesn’t make sense Target the swing states while solidifying Target the swing states while solidifying

your base (make sure they turnout)your base (make sure they turnout)

Often called electoral college math:Often called electoral college math: http://www.270towin.com/http://www.270towin.com/

Possible reforms to the Possible reforms to the Electoral CollegeElectoral College

Automatic planAutomatic plan Eliminate the electors but keep the EC. Pop vote directly Eliminate the electors but keep the EC. Pop vote directly

translated into EC votestranslated into EC votes District planDistrict plan

EC vote per congressional district (on a winner take all EC vote per congressional district (on a winner take all basis)basis)

+ 2 EC votes per state to the overall state winner+ 2 EC votes per state to the overall state winner Proportional planProportional plan

EC votes per state would be the proportion of popular votes EC votes per state would be the proportion of popular votes in that statein that state

***None of these precludes possibility of EC winner and ***None of these precludes possibility of EC winner and popular vote winner not being same***popular vote winner not being same***

Possible reforms cont’Possible reforms cont’

Direct popular electionDirect popular election Do away with EC altogether. Do away with EC altogether.

If no one gets a majority, there would be a If no one gets a majority, there would be a runoff election between the two top vote runoff election between the two top vote gettersgetters

What effects would this have?What effects would this have?

Wrong winner – really?Wrong winner – really?

Some argue that there really isn’t a Some argue that there really isn’t a “wrong winner” (Glenn 2003)“wrong winner” (Glenn 2003) Framers of the Constitution intentionally Framers of the Constitution intentionally

vested decision making power in the vested decision making power in the states - federalism. Constitutionally, states - federalism. Constitutionally, there is no such thing as the national there is no such thing as the national popular vote, only the statewide popular popular vote, only the statewide popular votevote

Analogy of Baseball World Analogy of Baseball World SeriesSeries

How do you win the world series? How do you win the world series? Does it matter which team scores the Does it matter which team scores the most runs across all the games in the most runs across all the games in the series?series?

Ex: 1960 World Series

Pirates 6 3 0 3 5 0 10 27Yankees 4 16 10 2 2 12 9

55P Y Y P P Y P

Analogy of Baseball World Analogy of Baseball World SeriesSeries

How do you win the world series? How do you win the world series? Does it matter which team scores the Does it matter which team scores the most runs across all the games in the most runs across all the games in the series?series?

Ex: 1960 World Series

Pirates 6 3 0 3 5 0 10 27Yankees 4 16 10 2 2 12 9

55P Y Y P P Y P

Is the system we have good for Is the system we have good for democracy?democracy?

Direct election systemDirect election system Candidate would win who appealed to that Candidate would win who appealed to that

largest voting block - they would never have to largest voting block - they would never have to consider the minority.consider the minority.

Another component of the argument is that Another component of the argument is that what dilutes the power of voters is not the what dilutes the power of voters is not the electoral college, but lopsided outcomes.electoral college, but lopsided outcomes. In close races, the swing voters mattersIn close races, the swing voters matters In asymmetrical outcomes, there are no swing In asymmetrical outcomes, there are no swing

votersvoters

……the rest of the storythe rest of the story

The Yankees were the favorite through The Yankees were the favorite through much of the season.much of the season.

Came down to decisive Game 7Came down to decisive Game 7 Yankees had led through much of Yankees had led through much of

gamegame Pirates scored 5 runs in the 8th to Pirates scored 5 runs in the 8th to

go ahead 9-7go ahead 9-7 Amazingly, the Yankees scored two Amazingly, the Yankees scored two

in the top of the 9th, to tie.in the top of the 9th, to tie.

Bill MazeroskiBill Mazeroski Bill Mazeroski - the bottom of the Bill Mazeroski - the bottom of the

9th - if the Pirates didn’t score, it 9th - if the Pirates didn’t score, it would go to a 10th and the Yankees would go to a 10th and the Yankees would have momentumwould have momentum

He hits a home run to left – the He hits a home run to left – the Pirates win.Pirates win.

Career AVG: .260Career AVG: .260 1960 AVG: .2901960 AVG: .290 Played all 17 years in majors for the Pirates Played all 17 years in majors for the Pirates

(1956-1972). (1956-1972). Inducted into the Hall of Fame 2001.Inducted into the Hall of Fame 2001. http://www.baseball-almanac.com/players/player.php?http://www.baseball-almanac.com/players/player.php?

p=mazerbi01p=mazerbi01

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/baseballs_best/mlb_bb_gamepage.jsp?story_page=bb_60ws_nyapit