U.S. Presidential ElectionsU.S. Presidential Elections

The election

process

The Road to the White HouseThe Road to the White House

““Testing the waters”Testing the waters” - 2 years- 2 years

Declaring CandidacyDeclaring Candidacy - 1.5 years- 1.5 years

Primaries and CaucusesPrimaries and Caucuses Feb – JuneFeb – June

(except: Iowa, NH)(except: Iowa, NH)

National Conventions – nominationsNational Conventions – nominations late summerlate summer

CampaigningCampaigning Sept-NovSept-Nov

DebatesDebates OctoberOctober

Election DayElection Day Nov – 1Nov – 1stst Tues Tues after first Mondayafter first Monday

Election ConfirmationElection Confirmation December-JanDecember-Jan

InaugurationInauguration January 20January 20

““Testing the Waters”Testing the Waters”

Potential candidates try to get a Potential candidates try to get a feel for how their chances would feel for how their chances would be at winning their party’s be at winning their party’s nominationnomination

Intra-party competitionIntra-party competition

Seeking out:Seeking out: Large amounts of moneyLarge amounts of money Broad base of supportBroad base of support

ConsiderationsConsiderations

““Incumbent”- is the person currently Incumbent”- is the person currently holding the office. holding the office. ConnectionsConnections EstablishedEstablished Fewer contenders (sometimes not Fewer contenders (sometimes not

challenged)challenged) Blame or credit for state of affairsBlame or credit for state of affairs Likely to have support of partyLikely to have support of party

ConsiderationsConsiderations

Opposition PartiesOpposition Parties Relatively unknown figuresRelatively unknown figures Raise support “from scratch”Raise support “from scratch” Full-blown campaign with many challengersFull-blown campaign with many challengers Huge investment of time and moneyHuge investment of time and money Only one “winner”Only one “winner”

Declaring CandidacyDeclaring Candidacy

Timing - maximum publicity Timing - maximum publicity

Location – supporters, hypeLocation – supporters, hype

Appear elect-able!Appear elect-able!

Generate excitement among Generate excitement among votersvoters

Who wants to be the Democratic Who wants to be the Democratic Nominee?Nominee?

Joseph Biden Joseph Biden

Wesley ClarkWesley Clark

Christopher DoddChristopher Dodd

Bill RichardsonBill Richardson

Al Gore?????Al Gore?????

Hillary ClintonHillary Clinton

John EdwardsJohn Edwards

Barack ObamaBarack Obama

Who wants to be the Republican Who wants to be the Republican Nominee?Nominee?

Tommy ThompsonTommy Thompson

Jim GilmoreJim Gilmore

Sam BrownbackSam Brownback

Mike HuckabeeMike Huckabee

John McCainJohn McCain

Rudy GuilianiRudy Guiliani

George PatakiGeorge Pataki

Mitt RomneyMitt Romney

CostsCosts

““In January 2007, In January 2007, Federal ElectionFederal Election Commission Chairman Michael Toner Commission Chairman Michael Toner stated that the 2008 U.S. presidential race stated that the 2008 U.S. presidential race will be "the most expensive election in will be "the most expensive election in American history." Toner estimated that American history." Toner estimated that the 2008 race will be a "$1 billion election," the 2008 race will be a "$1 billion election," and that to be "taken seriously," a and that to be "taken seriously," a candidate will need to raise at least $100 candidate will need to raise at least $100 million by the end of 2007. “ million by the end of 2007. “

Source: http://www.fec.gov/Source: http://www.fec.gov/

PrimariesPrimaries

PrimariesPrimaries Is an election in which a parties votesIs an election in which a parties votes

Choose some or all of a State party organizations Choose some or all of a State party organizations delegates to their party’s national conventiondelegates to their party’s national convention

Express a preference among various contenders Express a preference among various contenders for their party’s presidential nomination.for their party’s presidential nomination.

Open PrimaryOpen Primary

A party-nominating election in which any A party-nominating election in which any qualified voter can take part.qualified voter can take part.

Closed primaryClosed primary

A party nominating election in which only A party nominating election in which only declared party members can vote.declared party members can vote.

New Hampshire PrimaryNew Hampshire Primary

The first place to hold primaries every four The first place to hold primaries every four years (January 22, 2008)years (January 22, 2008)Since 1940 has held the first presidential Since 1940 has held the first presidential primaries.primaries.““New Hampshire guards its first-in-the-New Hampshire guards its first-in-the-nation title with a law that sets the date of nation title with a law that sets the date of the primary as the Tuesday of the week the primary as the Tuesday of the week before the date on which any other states before the date on which any other states schedules their primary” (Magruders, 370)schedules their primary” (Magruders, 370)

““Super Tuesday”Super Tuesday”

is the day when the most states is the day when the most states simultaneously hold their primary electionssimultaneously hold their primary electionsthe single day when the most nominating the single day when the most nominating delegates can be wondelegates can be wonIn 2004, Super Tuesday was on March 2In 2004, Super Tuesday was on March 2 California, Connecticut, Georgia, Maryland, California, Connecticut, Georgia, Maryland,

Massachusetts, New York, Ohio, Rhode Massachusetts, New York, Ohio, Rhode Island and Vermont (1,150 delegate votes)Island and Vermont (1,150 delegate votes)

2008? Will it be February 5 or March 4??2008? Will it be February 5 or March 4??

CaucusesCaucuses

As a nominating device, a group of like-As a nominating device, a group of like-minded people who meet to select the minded people who meet to select the candidates they will support in an candidates they will support in an upcoming election.upcoming election.Each caucus selects delegates to the next Each caucus selects delegates to the next levellevelLocalLocalDistrictDistrictStateState

Iowa’s impactIowa’s impact

““Iowa’s precinct caucuses are the first Iowa’s precinct caucuses are the first contest in the presidential nomination contest in the presidential nomination processes of both parties and the state processes of both parties and the state thus attracts much attention from thus attracts much attention from prospective candidates”prospective candidates” Source:http://www.gwu.edu/~action/2008/Source:http://www.gwu.edu/~action/2008/

chrniowa08.html chrniowa08.html

Primaries - a processPrimaries - a process

National ConventionsNational Conventions

Developed through tradition – not part of Developed through tradition – not part of the constitution or founding fathers’ planthe constitution or founding fathers’ plan

Build unityBuild unity

Party platformParty platform

Nomination – in recent years, this has Nomination – in recent years, this has already been decidedalready been decided

Running mate declaredRunning mate declared

About 3 months before About 3 months before Election DayElection Day

Publicity more than Publicity more than actual decisionsactual decisions

Opportunity for direct Opportunity for direct media exposuremedia exposure

Build excitement Build excitement among party members among party members

National Conventions cont’dNational Conventions cont’d

Democratic National ConventionDemocratic National Convention

http://dems2004.org/

SpeakersSpeakers

http://www.dems2004.org

Convention excitementConvention excitement

DNC ProtestersDNC Protesters

Republican National ConventionRepublican National Convention

RNC ProtestersRNC Protesters

2008 Conventions2008 Conventions

Democratic National ConventionDemocratic National Convention Denver, Colorado August 25-28, 2008Denver, Colorado August 25-28, 2008

Republican National ConventionRepublican National Convention St. Paul, Minnesota September 1-4St. Paul, Minnesota September 1-4

Candidates chosen… now what?Candidates chosen… now what?

The game of The game of campaigning begins! campaigning begins! The goal: score 270 The goal: score 270 electoral votes!!electoral votes!!

WhatWhat are electoral are electoral votes?votes?

270

Campaign “Strategy”Campaign “Strategy”

Role of media/pollsRole of media/pollsAdvertisingAdvertisingFinancing a campaignFinancing a campaignHandling of issues – very carefully!!Handling of issues – very carefully!!““Swing states”/ “Battleground States”Swing states”/ “Battleground States”The great quest to sway public opinion, to The great quest to sway public opinion, to attract voters without losing othersattract voters without losing others

The (beloved) MediaThe (beloved) Media

Networks – ABC, CBS, NBC, FoxNewsNetworks – ABC, CBS, NBC, FoxNewsPrinted media – Time, Newsweek, New York Printed media – Time, Newsweek, New York Times, Washington Post, other publicationsTimes, Washington Post, other publicationsCable – CNN, MSNBC, C-Span (1 and 2)Cable – CNN, MSNBC, C-Span (1 and 2)Pollsters – Gallup, independent, privatePollsters – Gallup, independent, privateInternet – whole new realm of information Internet – whole new realm of information dispersaldispersal““spin” and slant – satirical “news” shows – eg: spin” and slant – satirical “news” shows – eg: The Daily Show – where many young Americans The Daily Show – where many young Americans get their newsget their news

http://thedailyshow.comhttp://thedailyshow.com

Media:Media: These photos are from the same website – each taken These photos are from the same website – each taken

from the candidate’s personal profile. Which do you think this site from the candidate’s personal profile. Which do you think this site prefers? Bush-Cheney or Kerry-Edwards?prefers? Bush-Cheney or Kerry-Edwards?

From www.planet.nl/show/

All-important “Photo ops”All-important “Photo ops”

And by all means, HOLD And by all means, HOLD PEOPLE’S BABIES!PEOPLE’S BABIES!

Campaign adsCampaign ads

Target important voting audiencesTarget important voting audiencesHighlight areas of vulnerability in opponentHighlight areas of vulnerability in opponent Negative campaign adsNegative campaign ads

Highlight strengths of candidateHighlight strengths of candidate

Campaign FinanceCampaign Finance

Where does the money come from?Where does the money come from?

Matching Funds - yes or no?Matching Funds - yes or no?

Figures from this year and elections pastFigures from this year and elections past

donations and spending by candidate donations and spending by candidate http://www.opensecrets.org/presidential/index.asp

The Major IssuesThe Major Issues

Foreign PolicyForeign Policy

Economy / JobsEconomy / Jobs

Health CareHealth Care

Issues as dividersIssues as dividers

Often used to reach out to specific groups Often used to reach out to specific groups of peopleof people

Interest groups and campaignsInterest groups and campaigns

Negative ads often point out (or create the Negative ads often point out (or create the impression of) weaknesses on issuesimpression of) weaknesses on issues

Debates are the most issue-focused Debates are the most issue-focused

““Winner-take-all”Winner-take-all”

Exceptions: Maine and Nebraska

Where would you focus your energy and campaign the hardest?

““Battleground States”Battleground States”Also “swing states”

States that are still “undecided” in who is likely to capture their electoral votes.

Rather than waste time and money on sealing a larger margin of victory in “guaranteed” states, candidates tend to focus on winning these all-important regions.

Source: http://www.time.com/time/election2004/battleground/

The DebatesThe Debates

1. U. of Miami – Thursday, September 301. U. of Miami – Thursday, September 30Topic: Foreign Policy / IraqTopic: Foreign Policy / Iraq

2. Washington Univ. St. Louis, MO2. Washington Univ. St. Louis, MO““Town Hall” DebateTown Hall” Debate

3. Arizona State U. – Wednesday, October 133. Arizona State U. – Wednesday, October 13Domestic Policies, EconomyDomestic Policies, Economy

Best site for watching the debates:

http://news.yahoo.com/elections/

I am the debate championBut I’m still the likeable, simple all-American guy people identify with

Election Day…Election Day…

Election DayElection Day

Time zones – polls close in the Eastern time zone hours Time zones – polls close in the Eastern time zone hours before they close in the westbefore they close in the west

Exit polls – informal polls try to predict the election outcome Exit polls – informal polls try to predict the election outcome by asking voters who they voted forby asking voters who they voted for

Voter turn-out – many factors work together to determine Voter turn-out – many factors work together to determine whether an individual voter will actually get out and vote! whether an individual voter will actually get out and vote!

Voting method – absentee ballots, plus a variety of voting Voting method – absentee ballots, plus a variety of voting machines, mean that different voters use slightly machines, mean that different voters use slightly different ballots; in 2000 there was great controversy of different ballots; in 2000 there was great controversy of the “butterfly ballots” in some parts of Floridathe “butterfly ballots” in some parts of Florida

Ballot from Florida 2000Ballot from Florida 2000

Aftermath of elections 2000Aftermath of elections 2000

……and beyondand beyond

Individual states’ electors meet to cast their official votes (the Individual states’ electors meet to cast their official votes (the first Monday after the second Wednesday in December)first Monday after the second Wednesday in December)Separate ballots are cast for president and viceSeparate ballots are cast for president and viceVotes are certified by each state’s governor and forwarded to Votes are certified by each state’s governor and forwarded to the President of the Senate (i.e.: the current vice president)the President of the Senate (i.e.: the current vice president)

Maryland’s 2000 electors

Official decision is confirmedOfficial decision is confirmedJanuary 6, (unless a January 6, (unless a Sunday), in a joint Sunday), in a joint session of Congress, session of Congress, certificates are certificates are opened and votes opened and votes talliedtallied

If no candidate for If no candidate for president receives a president receives a

majority – Housemajority – House

If no vice-presidential If no vice-presidential candidate receives a candidate receives a

majority – Senatemajority – Senate

Inauguration DayInauguration Day

January 20January 20

Inauguration Ceremony Inauguration Ceremony at the Capitol Buildingat the Capitol Building

- oath of office- oath of office- inaugural address- inaugural address

Inaugural Parade Inaugural Parade through the streets of through the streets of

Washington, DCWashington, DCInaugural Balls in Inaugural Balls in

Washington.Washington.

Oath of Office CeremonyOath of Office Ceremony

Pictures from www.secretservice.gov/

Inaugural FestivitiesInaugural Festivities

Parade

Arrival at the White House

Inaugural Ball

Just in case you think elections are Just in case you think elections are a solemn occasion…a solemn occasion…

Elections are also a great supplier of Elections are also a great supplier of material for the creative people in the material for the creative people in the comedy business!comedy business!