El Turismo hacia el 2030
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Transcript of El Turismo hacia el 2030
UNWTO General Assembly19th SessionGyeongjuRepublic of Korea10 October 2011
International tourist arrivals
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
milli
on Tourism 2020 Vision forecastActual 1995-2010*
881 mn
Tourism 2020 Vision vs. actual trendWorld
528 mn
940 mn
Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
Tourism Towards 2030
• A broad research project in continuation of UNWTO’s work in the area of long-term forecasting initiated in the 1990s.
• Objectives:– Assist UNWTO Members in formulating policies and long-term strategic plans– Provide a global reference on tourism future development– Reinforce UNWTO’s role in agenda setting for tourism-related subjects– Constitute a reference for UNWTO strategic documents, programme of work and
activities• Central in the study are the projections for international tourism flows in
the two decades 2010-2030– Data series on international tourist arrivals as reported by destination countries are
used as the key indicator, taking into account subregion of destination, region of origin, mode of transport and purpose of visit for the period 1980-2010
– The quantitative forecast is based on a causal econometric model with international tourist arrivals as the dependent variable and as independent variables growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), a proxy for traveller affluence and business travel potential, and also cost of transport
Growth in international tourism will continue, but at a more moderate pace
International tourism, World International Tourist Arrivals, % change over previous year
source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©
3
0
0
1
9
4
3
9
7
6
7
0
9
3
44
6
5
3
4
8
0
3
-2
10
6 6
7
2
-4
7
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1980/'79 1985/'84 1990/'89 1995/'94 2000/'99 2005/'04 2010/'09 2015/'14 2020/'19 2025/'24 2030/'29
International tourist arrivals to increase by 43 million a year on average
International tourism, World International Tourist Arrivals, absolute change over previous year, million
source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©
8
0
0
4
25
1310
3027
22
28
-2
39
15
21 20
33
26
16
22
49
-1
20
-11
70
45 45
56
20
-35
58
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
International tourist arrivals to reach 1.8 billion by 2030
International tourism, World International Tourist Arrivals, million
source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
1,500
1,750
2,000
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Emerging economy destinations to surpass advanced destinations in 2015
Inbound tourism, advanced and emerging economies International Tourist Arrivals, million
emerging economies
advanced economies
source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Asia and the Pacific will gain most of the new arrivals
Inbound tourism by region of destination International Tourist Arrivals, million
Europe
Asia and the Pacific
Americas
Middle East
Africa
source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Asia and the Pacific, the Middle East and Africa to increase their shares
Africa3%
Americas23%
Asia and the Pacific8%
Europe63%
Middle East3%
Middle East6%
Europe51%
Asia and the Pacific22%
Americas16%
Africa5%
Africa7%
Americas14%
Asia and the Pacific30%
Europe41%
Middle East8%
1980
2010
2030
North-East Asia will be the most visited subregion in 2030
Europe continues to lead in international arrivals received per 100 of population
No major change in share by purpose of visit
International tourism by purpose of visit International Tourist Arrivals, million
Leisure, recreation and holidays
VFR, health, religion, other
Business and professional
source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Air transport will continue to increasemarket share, but at a slower pace
International tourism by means of transport International Tourist Arrivals, million
by air
over surface
source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©
0
250
500
750
1,000
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Travel between regions continues to grow slightly faster than within the same region
International tourism by region of destination and origin International Tourist Arrivals, share, %
within same region
between regions
source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Asia and the Pacific will also be the outbound region that grows most
Outbound tourism by region of origin International Tourist Arrivals generated, million
12
110 88
308
1030
160204
509
3790
265
541
832
81
6
169
2571
60
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Africa Americas Asia and the Pacific Europe Middle East
1980 1995 2010 2030
Outbound tourism participation is highest in Europe and still low in Asia and the Pacific
Outbound tourism by region of origin International Tourist Arrivals generated per 100 population
source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©
92
14
3
36
614
3
17
5
57
1722
6
24
12
89
25
61
12
1
21
6
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
World Africa Americas Asia and thePacific
Europe Middle East
1980 1995 2010 2030
What if assumptions change?
Tourism Towards 2030: global projection and sensitivity analysis International Tourist Arrivals, million
source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
1,500
1,750
2,000
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Actual data 1980-2010Transport costs continue to fall (scenario 3)Central projectionFaster rising cost of transport (scenario 2)A slower-than-expected economic recovery and future growth (Scenario 1)
One-Page Tourism Towards 2030
• Global growth in international tourist arrivals to continue, but at a more moderate pace, from 4.2% per year (1980–2020) to 3.3% (2010–2030), as a result of four factors:– The base volumes are higher, so smaller increases still add substantial numbers– Lower GDP growth, as economies mature– A lower elasticity of travel to GDP– A shift from falling transport costs to increasing ones
• Tourism Towards 2030 shows that there is still a substantial potential for further expansion in coming decades. Established as well as new destinations can benefit from this trend and opportunity, provided they do shape the adequate conditions and policies with regard to business environment, infrastructure, facilitation, marketing and human resources.
• Along with opportunities, challenges also arise in maximising social and economic benefits and minimising negative impacts
• Long-term tourism growth pattern: more moderate, sustainable and inclusive
Tourism towards 2030 /Global Overview
Thank you very much for your attention!
World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
www.unwto.org