El Nino-Cause and Effect
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Transcript of El Nino-Cause and Effect
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Causes and Effects to economy, health and socialwell-being of people
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What is El Nio?
West trade winds keep the warm waters of the central Pacific Ocean in place
Normal conditions
El Nio conditions
West trade winds weaken and the warm waters of the central Pacific Ocean move towards the
equatorial Pacific until they reach the South American coast
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State Agricultural Response Team 8
Caused by changes in sea surface temperature (SST)
in the equatorial Pacific Ocean
Strongly influence climate around the world Return every 2 to 7 years but do not always follow
each other
Affect production of winter vegetables and other
crops in the southeast U.S.
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State Agricultural Response Team 9
El Nio Phase Warmer than normal sea surface
temperature in the Pacific Ocean near the equator
Example: Strong El Nio phases in 1982-83 and 1997-98
caused excessive rainfall on the West Coast and the Gulf
coast
La Nia Phase Cooler than normal sea surface
temperature in the Pacific Ocean near the equator
Example: 1998-99 and 1999-2000 La Nia phases
caused drier and warmer winters in Florida. Result:
increase forest fires; drier and warmer than usual
temperatures in other parts of the U.S.
El Nio and La Nia Phases
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State Agricultural Response Team 10
Changes in watertemperature inthis red-shaded
area of thePacific Ocean onthe equator nearSouth Americaare monitored to
track El Nio orLa Nia phases
Track El Nio and La Nia
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State Agricultural Response Team 11
Neither El Nio nor La Nia phases exist
Surface water temperatures (SSTs) normal or near
normal; SSTs are different at different times of theyear but are usually from 75F to 80F in
December through February
Neutral phases are twice as likely to happen aseither El Nio and La Nia
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` El Nio is the strongest predictor of dryseason storminess across Florida
` Extratropical storms can sometimes haveas great an impact as tropical systems
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State Agricultural Response Team 12
El i i Imp t SE US
Rain
Temperature
Freezes
Hurricanes
Wild fires Crop production
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El Nio Phase Increase in average rain Novemberto March; 30% more rain than normal amount
Extra El Nio winter rain can lower harvest of
winter vegetables due to excessive moisture and
low solar radiation
La Nia Phase Less than average rain Novemberto March; 10% to 30% less than normal amount
lasting from fall through winter and spring
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` Destructive Thunderstorms
` Strong Downbursts
` Tornadoes
` Fatalities: 47 total
` Property Damage:
Estimated at $1.6 billion
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State Agricultural Response Team 15
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State Agricultural Response Team 16
El Nio Phase Temperature 2F to 3F belownormal in Florida and Gulf Coast during the
winter
La Nia Phase Temperatures 2F to 4Fabove normal December through April and
increase farther north in Florida
La Nia phase average daily minimum
temperatures June through August likely to
be lower than normal in south Florida
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State Agricultural Response Team 18
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State Agricultural Response Team 19
More likely to happen in Neutral
phases
11 of the 12 freezes that
seriously damaged southeastagriculture in the last 103 years
occurred in Neutral phase
winters
El Nio and La Nia phases donot appear to affect when first
and last frost happen
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State Agricultural Response Team 20
Last 12 severefreezes in Central
Florida were all
during Neutral years
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State Agricultural Response Team 21
El Nio Phase Fewer hurricanesbecause upper level winds over Atlantic
Ocean are not suitable; chance of a
hurricane striking the U.S. is less likely
La Nia Phase Helps hurricanesdevelop in the Atlantic Ocean; greater
chance that a hurricane may hit the U.S.
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State Agricultural Response Team 22
Chance of 2 hurricaneshitting the U.S.:
28% in El Nio
48% in Neutral
66% in La Nia
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State Agricultural Response Team 23
In La Nia Phase
Below normal rain
from fall into April, one
of driest months of theyear
Soil and forests
extremely dry;
Increased risk of fires
in spring and summer,especially in South
Florida
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State Agricultural Response Team 24
Wild Fires
In El Nio Phase -- Wet winters seem to
lower the risk of wild fires
Wild fires usually not a problem inwestern Panhandle -- this area gets more
rain than rest of state
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` The strongest and most devastating of thecentury.
` 2,000 deaths.
` $13 billion in damage to property and livelihoods.
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` is associated with dengue,
malaria, and cholera
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` Diseases related to water scarcity or shortage diarrhea and skin diseases
` Red tide blooms paralytic shellfish poisoning
` Disorders associated with high temperatures heat cramps, heat exhaustion, exertional heatinjury, and heat stroke
(DepED Memo no. 92, s 2010)
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` Food and water-borne diseases typhoid,cholera, hepatitis A, food-poisoning, diarrhea
` Sore eyes
` Measles` Mosquito-borne diseases - dengue
` Malaria
` Others sunburn, prickly heat
` (DepED Memo no. 92, s 2010)
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` Conserve water and use it wisely
` Protect water resources from contamination
` Drink more fluids
` Listen t the updates on shellfish ban` Wear light clothing
` Avoid strenuous physical activity
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State Agricultural Response Team 43
