El futuro-de-la-tecnologia-y-la-tecnologia-del-futuro-jose-luis-cordeiro
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José Luis Cordeiro The Millennium Project Director, Venezuela Node Singularity University NASA Ames, California, USA IDE – JETRO, Tokyo, Japan (past 3 years) Yonsei University, Seoul, Korea (next 3 years)
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Transcript of El futuro-de-la-tecnologia-y-la-tecnologia-del-futuro-jose-luis-cordeiro
José Luis Cordeiro
The Millennium ProjectDirector, Venezuela Node
Singularity UniversityNASA Ames, California, USA
IDE – JETRO, Tokyo, Japan (past 3 years)
Yonsei University, Seoul, Korea (next 3 years)
Lima, 17 de septiembre de 2011
4 0 N o d o s e n e l m u n d o
The Millennium Project
The Millennium Project’s 15th AnniversaryAnnual Report Cardon the Future
• Global Challenges• State of the Future Index• Egypt 2020• Future Arts/Media 2020• Latin America 2030• Environmental Security• Other Futures Research
Plus 8,000-page CD
El Desafío Latinoamericano
Development is faster and faster
La Escalera del Desarrollo(Tiempo para duplicar el PIB por habitante)
Fuente: Basado en Banco Mundial (1991) y Angus Maddison (1994)
La Escalera del Desarrollo
Años
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Reino Unido, 1780-1838
EUA, 1839-1886
Japón, 1885-1919
Italia, 1890-1911
España, 1950-1968
Corea del Sur, 1978-1987
China, 1987-1994
Mientras más rápido vamos, más lejos necesitamos ver
Del Mediterráneo al Pacífico
500 years 5000 years
50 years ???
China( 中国 )
A new face for the world
A new behind for the world
China: (Chung Kuo)
Singularity University
Ray Kurzweil (MIT):The Singularity is Near
• www.singularity.com• Bill Gates• Ley de Moore
23
24
25
Sequencing the genome: cost and time
Year Cost (US$) Time
2003 1,000,000.000 13 years
2007 100,000,000 4 years
2008 1,000,000 2 months
2009 10,000 4 weeks
2015 100 5 days
2020 10 8 hours
“Android” Google Phone (gPhone)
Agricultural revolutionNatural resources
Industrial revolution
Financial resources
Knowledge revolution
Human resouces
The 3 “waves” of Alvin Toffler
Japón: de sacapuntas malos a computadoras buenas en 30 años
Energy “waves”: “decarbonization”
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
Future
Others
Gas
Oil
Coal
Wood
Towards a post-petroleum world
British Petroleum
Beyond Petroleum
Jeque Yamani, 2000Arabia Saudita
• La Edad de Piedra se acabó y no por falta de piedras, y la Edad del Petróleo se acabará pronto y no por falta de petróleo.
From manufacturing to mindfacturing
Finlandia(siglo XIX)
• País pobre
• Atrasado
• Colonia
• Idioma “bárbaro”
Bioenergy and “eternal” energy
• Photosynthesis:CO2 + 2 H2O + light→ (CH2O) + O2 + H2O
• From fossil hydrocarbons to live carbohydrates
• Craig Venter and his artificial bacteria
Complete Initial R&D for 1 MW to Full-Scale SSP
NASA: Space Solar Power Strategy2003-2005 2006-2010 2011-2015 2016-20202002
Studies & Proof-of-Concept Technology Research (TRL 2-4)
Technology Research, Development and Test (TRL 4-5)
Dual-Purpose Applications R&D (TRL 4-6)
FY99 FY00 FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20
Technology Demos (TRL 6-7)
LEGEND R&D Decision Point
Major R&D Pgm Milestone
Strategic R&T Road Map Objective
MSC 310 MW-Class Flight
Demo (TRL 7)
Complete Initial SSP Technology Research for 1-10 MW Class to Full-Scale Systems
Complete Initial R&D for 1 MW to Full-Scale SSP
Technology Testbeds
MSC 1100 kW Class SSP flight demo
50 M Class flight expt.(incl SPG, AR&D, dist. control)
Component-Level Flight Experiments
Ground Test of SPG/WPT/Other Breadboards
Large structures for large apertures & solar sails
Component-Level Proof-of-Concept
experiments
High Efficiency Arrays for S/C
SSP Concept definition complete
Ground Test very large deployable structures
1 MW Class SSP advanced technology subsystem flight
demo’s (SPG/SEPS/WPT)
10 kW 100 kW 1 MW
High Power SEPS For Science Probes
Lunar Power, Large SEPS
High-Power GEO CommSats
MSC 210-100 kW SSP
planetary surface demo
SSP Model System Concept(s)
MSC 4+(2020+)
JAXA: Space Solar Power Strategy
¿Qué es el futuro?
• ¡El futuro ya no es lo que era antes!
• Lo que hoy se vive no es el acabose, sino apenas el continuose de lo que empezose ya mucho ha.
Mafalda
• Passive (ostrich) Suffer the future
• Reactive (fire fighter) Respond
• Preactive (insurer) Prepare
• Proactive (builder) Create
Attitudestowards the future
Sir Arthur C. Clarke with Jose Cordeiro
The Three Laws of Sir Arthur C. Clarke
• First Law: When a distinguished but elderly scientist states that something is possible, he is almost certainly right. When he states that something is impossible, he is very probably wrong.
• Second Law: The only way of discovering the limits of the possible is to venture a little way past them into the impossible.
• Third Law: Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.
Technologies of the “past”
• 30 years agoPersonal computers
• 20 years agoCell phones
• 10 years agoGoogle
• What will happen in 10 years? In 20 years? In 30 years?Immortal (ageless) cells!
Physical Immortality: Death of Death1. Reproductive cells (good)
2. Cancer cells (bad)www.Mprize.org
NBIC (Nano-Bio-Info-Cogno)National Science FoundationDepartment of Commerce
Neurons
Cogno
NBIC
Bio
Info
Cells
Technological Convergence NBIC
Nano
Bits
Atoms
Technological convergence is accelerating…
… and everything is information
Ray Kurzweil (MIT):The Singularity is Near
• www.singularity.com• Bill Gates• Ley de Moore
Moore’s Wall?
ThermionicTube
Transistor
IC1
IC2
IC3
IC4
IC5
ICn
1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
1. 3D ICs
2. Quantum computing
3. Subatomic particles
Log Scale
No!
1. Nano (NBIC)
Nanotechnology: www.nano.gov
2. Bio (NBIC)
The glo-fish: transgenic fish (Taiwan)
Dolly: the clone
Singapore: Biopolis 2012
Korea: Hwang Woo-suk (Snuppy)
The attack of the clones?
Synthetic biology is born• Variola virus (smallpox)
Genes: 197Base pairs: 185,000
• Mycoplasma genitalium (bacteria)Genes: 485Base pairs: 580,000
• Homo sapiens sapiensGenes: ~25,000Base pairs: ~3,000,000,000
3. Info (NBIC)
MIT Media Lab: $100 laptop
The 3 Laws of “Knowledge”
• Law of Nodes(N units)
• Law of Metcalfe(N x N conexions)
• Law of Reed(exp.N Knowledge)
Global brain?
IBM´s Watson won in Jeopardy! February 14-16, 2011
4. Cogno (NBIC)
The triune brain:Paul MacLean, 1973
• Reptilian (primitive): instincts
• Limbic (paleomammalian): emotions
• Neocortex (neomammalian): intelligence
Riken Brain Institutewww.brain.riken.go.jp
Riken Brain Institutewww.brain.riken.go.jp
Paul Allen: www.BrainAtlas.org
• 1 brain• 1011 neurones• 1014 synapsis• 1017 computations
(per second)• And the mind?• And the spirit?• And the soul?
What is a brain?
Internal brain implants: Cyberkinetics Inc.
External brain implants
Robots in Japan and Korea
Asimo (Honda) evolution
Robots are good in Japan
Kevin Warwick: I, Cyborgwww.KevinWarwick.org
Humans and machines!
Humans or machines?
Marvin Minsky (MIT):Will robots inherit the earth?
Yes, but they will be us!
Bart Kosko, USC: Biology is not destiny.It was never more than tendency.
Biology was just nature's first quick and dirty way to compute with meat.
Chips are destiny!
Transhumanism is S&T for humans: transcending human limitations
www.TransHumanismo.org
Are humans trans-monkeys?
Transhumanism, yes...but carefully
Homo sapiens sapiens
Superman?
ChristopherReeve
(paraplegic)
Stephen Hawking
Michael J. Fox: Back to the Future
Ronald Reagan:Alzheimer’s
Space:the final frontier?
SpaceShipOne: Virgin Galactic 2012
The brain:the final frontier!
Yin-yang 阴阳 (and more yin-yang)
Light up the world
The world is one
Guru Cordeiro meditating in India (Hinduism) and in Japan (Buddhism)
¡Muchas gracias!www.Cordeiro.org
