EL Estado Mundial de la Agricultura y la Alimentation:

La ganadería a exámen

The State of

1

The State of Food and Agriculture

Livestock in the balance

FAO's major annual flagship publication.

Available in English, French, Spanish, Russian, Arabic and Chinese

www.fao.org/publications/sofa

Livestock in the balance

• Large, growing, dynamic sector

• Public goods at risk– Livelihoods and food security

– Natural resources and the environment

2

– Animal diseases and human health

• Better policies, institutions and regulations

• Conflicts and trade-offs

30

04

00

50

0In

de

x n

um

be

r:1

96

1=

10

0

Consumption is growing rapidly in

developing countries ...

Eggs

Meat

3

10

02

00

30

0In

de

x n

um

be

r:1

96

1=

10

0

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Roots and tubers Cereals

Meat Milk

Eggs

Per caput consumption of major food items in developing countries – kg per caput per year (index numbers 1961=100)

Milk

Drivers of growth

• Animal numbers more than productivity

• Cheap feed and fuel

• Economies of scale

4

• Economies of scale

• Technological innovation

... and structural change

• Vertical integration and global supply chains

• Geographic concentration

• Higher food safety and animal

5

• Higher food safety and animal health standards

• A widening dichotomy

Livelihoods and food security

• Livelihoods

– 1 billion people keep livestock

– 60 percent of rural households

– livestock have multiple functions

6

– livestock have multiple functions

• Food supply

– 15 percent of dietary energy

– 25 percent of protein supply

Environment: why livestock

are different from crops?

• Livestock use more land

• Livestock food chains are longer –and entail efficiency losses

7

• Livestock move

• Livestock production systems are mobile

Increasing animal

disease risks

• Co-existence of traditional and modern livestock production

• Increasing travel and trade

8

• Climate change and changing ecologies

Balancing objectives

• Livelihoods

• Food security

• Environment and natural resources

9

• Human health

Human health

Balancing objectives

10

Rapid industrialization

Low development Slow industrialization

Post-industrial

Livelihoods

EnvironmentFood

security

“...towards a more responsible

livestock sector...”

• Need to address and correct the current under-provision of global and local public goods in the livestock sector

11

• Deal with social, environmental and health aspects of sector development in a dynamic, integrated and inter-disciplinary manner

Development of the Development of the

Responsible Livestock AgendaResponsible Livestock Agenda• Led by a “dialogue group” (Netherlands, New

Zealand, Brazil, WB, FAO);

• Focus on enhancing efficiency of resource use (land, nutrients, water, energy) in global (land, nutrients, water, energy) in global livestock sector value chains;

• Through:– development of a “think tank”;

– knowledge sharing and policy dialogue

– supporting inter-governmental processes and partnerships

The State of Food and Agriculture

Livestock in the balance

FAO's major annual flagship publication.

Available in English, French, Spanish, Russian, Arabic and Chinese

14

Arabic and Chinese

www.fao.org/publications/sofa

“beef to become the caviar of

the future”the future”

Meat Production (5 countries)

Land use trends

110

115

120

125

Ind

ex:

1990=

100

Arable land Pasture Forest area

90

95

100

105

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

Ind

ex:

1990=

100

Real commodity prices

200

250

300

350

400

Ind

ex:

1983=

100

Beef and veal Pork Coarse grains Crude oil Oilseeds Oilmeal

0

50

100

150

200

1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007

Ind

ex:

1983=

100

Emission Intensities (direct emissions from livestock)

GTAP 2001 data base

5 countries

• mass product for the emerging middle class?

• feed resource constrains for beef: pasture, arablearable

• technological progress slow

• beef will have to go up-market

Net Trade: milk and meat

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

'000 m

etr

ic t

on

nes

-1,500

-1,000

-500

0

500

1,000

1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2007

'000 m

etr

ic t

on

nes

Meat

Milk

Net trade - Meat

1,500

2,000

2,500

'000 m

etr

ic t

on

nes

Argentina Brazil Chile

Paraguay Uruguay

-500

0

500

1,000

1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2007

'000 m

etr

ic t

on

nes

Trends in soybean production and exports

60

80

100

120

Mil

lio

n m

etr

ic t

on

nes

Production Exports

0

20

40

60

1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006

Mil

lio

n m

etr

ic t

on

nes

Concentrate feed use

Concentrate feed use, 2007

Cereals

Brans6%

Roots & tubers20%

Cereals51%

Oilcrops1%

Oil cakes22%

Trends in soybean production and

acreage

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

mil

lio

n h

ecatr

es

'000 m

etr

ic t

on

nes

Production Area harvested

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006

mil

lio

n h

ecatr

es

'000 m

etr

ic t

on

nes

Average annual change in land use, 1990-2008

Land use Argentina Brazil Paraguay Uruguay

1000 ha

Agriculture +303 +1,272 +180 +2

Arable land +311 +573 +116 +21Arable land +311 +573 +116 +21

Soybean area +635 +532 +87 +24

Pasture -7 +656 +63 -18

Forest land -273 -2,829 0 0

Other land -30 1,558 -1 -43

Total acreage for main land-use types and average annual change in land use, 1990-

2008Land use Argentina Brazil Paraguay Uruguay

1000 ha

1990- 1990- 1990- 1990-

2008

1990-

2008 2008

1990-

2008 2008

1990-

2008 2008

1990-

2008

Arable land 32,000 +311 61,000 +573 4,200 +116 1,640 +21

Pasture 99,850 -7 196,000 -656 16,100 +63 13,191 -18

Forest land 29,879 -237 523,910 -2,829 17,939 0 1,654 0

Average annual change in land use, 1990-2008

Land use Argentina Brazil Paraguay Uruguay

1000 ha

1990 2008 1990 2008 1990 2008 1990 2008

Arable land 26, 400 32,000 50,681 61,000 2,110 4,200 1,260 1,640

Pasture 99,970 99,850 184,200 196,000 14,960 16,100 13,520 13,191

Forest land 34,793 29,879 574,839 523,910 21,157 17,939 920 1,654