El CaribeEl Caribe1.10.2012 – Serie: 1.10.2012 – Serie: Economía de América LatinaEconomía de América Latina

Cuba

Cuba at a glance: 2012-16OVERVIEWA change of leadership within the forecast period is highly likely. Although the Economist Intelligence Unit expects the transfer of power to be relatively smooth, there is no obvious candidate for the presidency among the younger generation of politicians. Systemic changes to the tightly controlled political system are unlikely. The economic reform process will remain uneven and some vital measures (such as improving credit provision) will lag, but we nevertheless expect an expanded scope for private enterprise and foreign investment. We have revised down our 2012 growth forecast to 3%. However, growth is expected to pick up to around 4-5% annually in 2013-16. Following moves to increase usage of the "unofficial" (but legal) exchange rate in late 2010, the process of closing the gap with the official rate is forecast to begin in 2013, as part of a strategy to unify the two currencies. After registering a small estimated surplus (of 0.5% of GDP) in 2011, we expect the current account to remain in surplus in 2012-16, as the authorities focus on building reserves in order to prepare for eventual exchange-rate unification.

Source: Economist Intelligence Unit

Cuba's business environment score will improve marginally, in line with a gradual liberalisation of the island's state-dominated economy. However, Cuba will continue to lag at the bottom of the index rankings (78th out of 82 countries ranked), as room for domestic private business and foreign business involvement will remain heavily constrained. We anticipate that, starting from 2013, an adjustment of the unofficial exchange rate to bring it into closer alignment with the official rate will begin to reduce economic distortions, but imbalances resulting from the fixing of many prices below their market level and the persistence of the dual exchange-rate system will remain, continuing to deter investment.

Source: Economist Intelligence Unit

Venezuela

Venezuela at a glance: 2012-16OVERVIEWAlthough the Economist Intelligence Unit's baseline scenario is that the president, Hugo Chávez, will remain in power beyond 2013, the outcome of the October 7th presidential election is increasingly uncertain, as the opposition gathers momentum. Under Mr Chávez or another Partido Socialista Unido de Venezuela (PSUV) leader, political confrontation and social polarisation will continue, as the highly unorthodox and populist model followed so far will be intensified. If an opposition government takes power in 2013 the business and macroeconomic environment will improve gradually, but a strong chavista presence in the legislature will limit progress on political and judicial reforms. Backed by rising private consumption and high public spending, we expect the economy to expand by 5% in 2012, before decelerating to an average of only 2.1% in 2013-16, reflecting weak macroeconomic fundamentals. At an average of 25.8% in 2012-16, annual inflation will remain very high, but with many people relying on the black market (where prices are higher) for staple goods, the cost of living will increase faster than official data suggest. The continued build-up of supply/demand imbalances will force repeated devaluations in the exchange rate, with the fixed exchange rate forecast to end 2016 at BsF8.9:US$1.Source: Economist Intelligence Unit

Venezuela's business environment ranking will fall in 2012-16 to 80th place, making the country one of the least attractive investment locations in Latin America and globally. This reflects unpredictable state interventionism, a highly heterodox macroeconomic environment, sub-par legal security and difficulties accessing foreign exchange. Weak and politicised institutions, an unpredictable tax regime, an increasingly rigid labour market and deteriorating infrastructure will also impair the business outlook. A change in government in 2013 could lead to some improvements in the business environment, including improved transparency, a halt of nationalisations and more friendly policies towards private enterprise and foreign investment. However, there would be little progress in dealing with the country's structural constraints and in curbing corruption and bureaucratic inefficiency.

Source: Economist Intelligence Unit

VENEZUELAVENEZUELA

•Economía mixta•Organizaciones de comercio:•WTO•OPEC (OPEP) http://www.opec.org/home/

•Unasur http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Union_of_South_American_Nations

•MERCOSUR•ALBA http://fi.wikipedia.org/wiki/ALBA

VENEZUELAVENEZUELAInstituto Nacional de Estadísticas: http://www.ine.gov.ve/Trade

•PDVSA•Venezuela usually posts a trade surplus•Other than petroleum exports have been growing rapidly 20-25% of total exports. •The United States is Venezuela's leading trade partner and the 25th-largest market for USA•Venezuela is USA’s 14th-largest source of goods.

VENEZUELAVENEZUELA

Venezuela Inaugurates New Line for Extensive Rail System Projecthttp://www.venezuelanalysis.com/news/4316

Train to Cross all South America? Venezuela Wants to Push the Idea Forwardhttp://www.treehugger.com/files/2008/09/train-to-cross-south-america-southern-train-venezuela-argentina.php

FACTBOX: Venezuela's nationalizations under Hugo Chavezhttp://www.reuters.com/article/reutersEdge/idUSTRE5243CX20090305?pageNumber=2&virtualBrandChannel=0&sp=true

Colombia

Colombia at a glance: 2012-16OVERVIEWThe president, Juan Manuel Santos, of the centre-right Partido Social de Unidad Nacional (Partido de la U), will struggle to press on with his ambitious reform agenda in his last two years in office, reflecting lower public support and conflicts with the legislative. In order to boost his position ahead of the 2014 election, Mr Santos will seek to keep security from deteriorating, enhance the implementation capacity of his government and strengthen his support among low-income Colombians. Weaker external and domestic demand will offset fiscal and monetary stimuli, keeping GDP growth under 4.5% in 2012. GDP growth will pick-up slightly in 2013-16, helped by improvements to the business environment. The main thrust of economic policy under Mr Santos will be to consolidate macroeconomic stability, encourage foreign investment and promote more inclusive growth to reduce inequality and encourage job creation. A steady consolidation of the public finances will lead to a gradual reduction of the overall public debt, to 30% of GDP in 2016. Reversing a two-year tightening cycle, the Banco de la República (Banrep, the central bank) will embark on monetary easing in 2012 to boost domestic demand. It is likely to raise policy rates later in the forecast period, as growth picks up. The peso will remain strong in 2012-16, reflecting still-positive interest-rate differentials with developed countries and continuing large inflows of foreign direct investment (FDI) into the hydrocarbons and mining sectors.Source: Economist Intelligence Unit

Colombia's business environment will continue to improve over the forecast period, underpinned by a generally stable political environment, open policies towards private enterprise, foreign investment and trade, and the likelihood of important reforms to the land, tax and health systems. Owing to security improvements, the internal conflict will be less of a hindrance to business activity and foreign investment than in the past. However, deficiencies in the labour market owing to high costs and widespread informality, a poor infrastructure and a complex and unsettled tax regime will remain weak aspects of the business environment.

Source: Economist Intelligence Unit

COLOMBIACOLOMBIA

Exporta:Petróleo, café, plátanos, flores, algodón, arroz, textiles, azúcar, carbón, sal y esmeraldasImporta: Maquinaria, suministros químicos y cerealesTURISMOhttp://www.colombia.travel/es/

COLOMBIACOLOMBIA

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/co.html

+ Wikipedia

Destino de Exportaciones: USA : 35.8%VENEZUELA: 11.4%ECUADOR : 5.4%[

Origen de Importaciones: USA:26.8%BRASIL: 8.6%MÉXICO: 8.5%CHINA : 6%VENEZUELA: 5.6%ECUADOR: 4.1%[3]