EITO 2002 Presented by Bruno Lamborghini Chairman of EITO.
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Transcript of EITO 2002 Presented by Bruno Lamborghini Chairman of EITO.
EITO 2002
Presented by
Bruno LamborghiniChairman of EITO
EITO 2002
„Change has changed. No longer it is additive.
No longer does it move in a straight line.
Change is discontinuous, abrupt, seditious!“
(Gary Hamel)
Major factors and trends in Europe
On the negative side
Economic slowdown and dotcom bubble
Heavy 3G licence fees cutting or delaying carriers investment programmes
Delays in availability of GPRS and 3G, coupled with relative saturation of the GSM market
Pricing / tariff competition squeezing revenues streams
Low market acceptance of ASPs and E-marketplace models
Ongoing skill shortage hampering E-business development
Major factors and trends in Europe
On the positive side
From dotcom euphoria to real E-business for „bricks & mortar“ companies
Increasing adoption of Internet-centric solutions for E-business
Integrated services moving from back-office into front-office operations
Unmetered Internet access favouring consumer and professional usage
Growing mobile data expectations
Broadband (ADSL and WLL) diffusion driving Internet / multimedia applications and services
E-government programmes notably at local community level
World-wide ICT market growth by region,2001-2003, in %
5,1 5,4
7,8
0,5
5,1
9,4
5,3
7,67,3
8,79,3
13,8
4,4
6,6
9,8
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Western Europe USA Japan RoW World
2001 2002 2003
Source: EITO 2002 Market value 2002: 2.442 billion Euro
Western European ICT market actual growth by segment, 2001-2003, in %
Source: EITO 2002 Market value 2002: 678 billion Euro
-4,4
-1,7
4,5
8,08,6
10,8
-0,6
3,1
8,79,5
6,7 6,4
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Computer hardware
Software &IT services
Telecommunicationsequipment
Carrier services
2001 2002 2003
Western European ICT market annual growth, 1993-2003, in %
5,1
2,0
8,7
5,6
9,3
7,98,5
6,7
8,08,6
12,7
10,1
13,4
10,8
14,5
12,1
6,4
3,9
5,85,1
6,8
8,8
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1993/92 1994/93 1995/94 1996/95 1997/96 1998/97 1999/98 2000/99 2001/00 2002/01 2003/02
TLC IT
Source: EITO 2002 Market value 2002: 678 billion Euro
Western European IT market growth by country,2002-2003, in %
Market value 2002: 341 billion EuroSource: EITO 2002
2,9
7,4
5,9
9,3
7,1
10,3
6,8
10,2
6,6
9,4
5,6
7,7
2,0
7,2
5,1
8,8
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Germany France UK Italy Spain Benelux Nordic WesternEurope
2002/2001 2003/2002
Western European TLC market growth by country,2002-2003, in %
Market value 2002: 337 billion EuroSource: EITO 2002
5,6
9,1
5,75,4
4,0
5,65,0
6,26,8
6,1
8,9
6,8 7,07,3
5,8
6,8
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Germany France UK Italy Spain Benelux Nordic WesternEurope
2002/2001 2003/2002
Western European Web users by country, 2000-2005, thousands
Web users: individuals who access the World Wide Web at least once in every three months.
Source: EITO 2002
Western European Web buyers vs. Web users
Web users: individuals who access the World Wide Web at least once in every three months.
Web buyers: individuals that have conducted Internet commerce within three months.
Source: EITO 2002
Internet commerce in Western Europe, billion Euro
Source: EITO 2002
Internet commerce in the top 5 European countries, 2001-2005, million Euro
Source: EITO 2002
Stages of E-business development
Source: EITO 2002
EITO 2002 special studyEntering the UMTS era
Main outcome (Western Europe):
Mobile subscribers: end 2001: 291 million; end 2006: 401 million
Mobile Internet users: end 2001: 139 million (78% SMS only); end 2006: 203 million (61% GPRS-based and 28% UMTS-based)
Mobile terminal shipments: GPRS 80% from 2004-05; UMTS: 3% in 2004 to 42% in 2006
Mobile Internet-related services: 2001: 10 billion Euro (mainly SMS); 2006: 75 billion Euro (47% of total mobile service revenues)
Mobile internet content / services applications:
2006: 52% entertainment
19% communications
17% business services
9% transactions
Western European mobile Internet users by bearer service, millions
Source: EITO 2002
Western European mobile Internet service revenues, million Euro
Source: EITO 2002
Western European mobile content and services revenues by segment, million Euro
Source: EITO 2002
Mobile data value web
Source: EITO 2002
EITO 2002 special studyE-government and the business environment (1)
Main outcome:
Business interest in conducting online transactions with government for competitiveness improvement
Online tax as most important G2B service (other areas: procurement, employment, information) – complete G2B transactional services are rare
G2B (20%) less developed than G2C (31%) and G2G (35%)
G2B most developed in Germany, France, Denmark, Portugal
Main drivers: low costs, speed, pressure of government initiatives, ease of use
Main inhibitors: slow take-up of digital signature, security, costs, organisational barriers
Main question to government: costs, effective commitment, leadership, staff resources, trust
EITO 2002 special studyE-government and the business environment (2)
Main G2B services:
Social contribution for employees
Corporation tax: declaration, notification
VAT: declaration, notification
Registration of a new company
Submission of data to statistical offices
Customs declaration
Environment-related permits
Public procurement
EITO 2002 special studyE-government and the business environment (3)
Main challenges:
Security (20%)
Digital signature (20%)
Legacy issues (15%)
Lack of infrastructure (10%)
Lack of broadband (5%)
Proportion of GDP spent on public administration ICT compared with EU mean, 2000
Source: EITO 2002
ICT spending on public administration as percentage of GDP, EU member states, 2000
Source: EITO 2002
Proportion of public administration ICT expenditure on different E-government areas in EU member states, 2000
G2C31%
Non-specific14%
G2B20%
G2G35%
Source: EITO 2002
Public administration ICT expenditure by business application (percentage), 2000
Source: EITO 2002
EITO 2002 special studyThe impact of ICT on sustainable development (1)
What is sustainable development?
„A dynamic process which enables all people to realise their potential and
improve their quality of life in ways that simultaneously protect and enhance
the earth‘s life-support systems.“
The „triple bottom line“:
Economic sustainability: economic growth without making undue demands on social or natural resources
Environmental sustainability: minimising impacts and building / safeguarding natural resources
Social sustainability: building and not undermining social equity
EITO 2002 special studyThe impact of ICT on sustainable development (2)
Economic sustainability and ICT
Impact and opportunities:
1st order: ICT market growth, ICT investment, new companies, boom and
bust
2nd order: Business applications, new opportunities for SMEs, financial
markets, consumer empowerment
3rd order: New paradigm of growth, exclusion / inclusion
EITO 2002 special studyThe impact of ICT on sustainable development (3)
Environmental sustainability and ICT
Impact and opportunities:
1st order: Design / manufacture, operation, disposal of ICT equipment
2nd order: Use of transport, ICT business systems, virtualisation of material products, products lifetimes, environmental information
3rd order:Decoupling economic growth and energy consumption / carbon emission, changing settlement patterns
EITO 2002 special studyThe impact of ICT on sustainable development (4)
Social sustainability and ICT
Impact and opportunities:
1st order: Job creation, digital divide / opportunity
2nd order: Access to information, security challenge, better services, new communities online, popular protest online
3rd order: Cultural homogeneity / diversity, building local communities, building civic culture
EITO 2002 special studyThe impact of ICT on sustainable development (5)
Government / business policy options
Three broad principles:
Institutional innovation must be as radical as technological innovation in order to keep up with the pace of change
Business, government and non-governmental organisations must work in partnership for action to be effective
Successful policy will depend on a longer term view, beyond the ups and downs of ICT stock prices
Public / private policy actions (1)
Develop the E-economy policy agenda to maximise benefits and to build a model of a global knowledge society
Strengthen a stable and predictable EU regulatory framework and a progressive replacement of ex ante regulations with ex post antitrust measures for telecommunications
EU enlargement for targeting a net economy of half a billion people and diffusion of best practices among less developed regions
Public / private policy actions (2)
Promote broadband access as a main driver to net economy development
Harmonised regulations within the EU for broadband deployment and fiscal credits / incentives for broadband investments by users
Harmonised standards for components, protocols, security in wireless area
Promote digital broadcasting and digital rich media content
Invest in ICT-based education and E-learning for new skills and jobs