EIP Final Paper

22
McKinnis 1 Christopher McKinnis Professor Malcolm Campbell UWRT 1103 9 December 2015 How Climate Change Will Soon Take Over Your Kitchen We all love food, there’s no denial in that. Whether it’s pasta or pizza, hamburgers or hotdogs, cake or cookies, we all like to eat. Granted it’s a necessity to our survival as a species, but why not enjoy it while we can, right? Well, what would happen if you couldn’t eat your favorite foods anymore? Global warming has that covered, for it is making a direct impact on the global food supply and production. Although many anti- environmentalists deny its existence, global warming is real and is affecting every aspect of how we live everyday. Whether it’s the increase in global temperatures in the land and sea or the melting of the polar ice caps in the Arctic, the signs point us in the wrong direction, and it keeps getting worse. According to scientists from the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change, climate change has begun affecting crop and terrestrial food production on a global scale, with projections

description

uwrt

Transcript of EIP Final Paper

Page 1: EIP Final Paper

McKinnis 1

Christopher McKinnis

Professor Malcolm Campbell

UWRT 1103

9 December 2015

How Climate Change Will Soon Take Over Your Kitchen

We all love food, there’s no denial in that. Whether it’s pasta or pizza, hamburgers or

hotdogs, cake or cookies, we all like to eat. Granted it’s a necessity to our survival as a species,

but why not enjoy it while we can, right? Well, what would happen if you couldn’t eat your

favorite foods anymore? Global warming has that covered, for it is making a direct impact on

the global food supply and production. Although many anti-environmentalists deny its

existence, global warming is real and is affecting every aspect of how we live everyday.

Whether it’s the increase in global temperatures in the land and sea or the melting of the polar ice

caps in the Arctic, the signs point us in the wrong direction, and it keeps getting worse.

According to scientists from the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change,

climate change has begun affecting crop and terrestrial food production on a global scale, with

projections claiming that, for example, wheat yield could decrease by two percent per decade

from this point further. In addition, with the continuous alterations in global precipitation

patterns and sea and land temperatures, food prices could possibly spike up by 3% to 84% by the

year 2050. Such a gap goes to show how much speculation about what may occur over the next

few decades, due to the fact the effects of climate change are all dependent on our actions as a

global population. With the potential of possible global famine and increased international

tensions between global forces, this is an issue that has to be tackled as soon as possible.

Through the thorough analysis of all aspects of the effects of climate change on food production

Page 2: EIP Final Paper

McKinnis 2

and security on a global scale, scientists and politicians can pinpoint a path that can be taken in

order to keep us as a society and species together.

Climate Change: Where It’s Going Now

Before I begin with the topic on climate change’s effects on food production and security,

it is important to discuss what has caused this issue to escalate as much as it has over the past

few decades. Since 1861, the concentrations of the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide (CO2), and

nitrous oxide (N2O) in the troposphere have risen sharply, especially since 1950. Current CO2

levels in the troposphere appear to be higher than they have been in at least 160,000 years, hav-

ing surpassed the health level of 350 ppm (parts per million) in 1988. Today, this level is about

to break 400 ppm.

In a recent article published by The Guardian, experts from the United Nations’ weather

agency have expressed an urgent concern dealing with the rising CO2 concentrations in the at-

mosphere, predicting a historic milestone of 400 ppm, or parts per million, to be surpassed some-

time in the year 2016. With an increase of 43% in the CO2 levels from 1750 to 2014, immediate

action is necessary in order to cut down CO2 emissions, according to the secretary general of the

World Meteorological Society, Michel Jarraud. “We can’t see CO2. It is an invisible threat, but a

very real one. It means hotter global temperatures, more extreme weather events like heat-

waves and floods, melting ice, rising sea levels and increased acidity of the oceans. This is hap-

pening now and we are moving into uncharted territory at a frightening speed,” states Jarraud

(qtd in “Vaughan”). Unfortunately, it’s not just CO2 that’s affecting climate change. With in-

creased temperatures comes increased amounts of water vapor in the air due to evaporation and

Page 3: EIP Final Paper

McKinnis 3

transpiration. Water vapor, although most don’t realize it, is also a greenhouse gas, and also

traps heat within the Earth, further heating the surface and continuing the cycle (Vaughan).

Effects on Food Production

Climate change impacts every aspect of how we live and go about our days everyday, and

most people don’t realize that. Many believe that the ice that is melting in the Arctic or the rise

in the global temperatures have been happening since the beginning of time, and don’t see the

rationale of starting to do something about it now when it has been occurring forever. However,

global land and sea temperatures have risen quite dramatically over the past few decades and are

already having immediate impacts on how countries and companies go about producing food and

food-based products. In an interview by the Washington Post’s Roberto A. Ferdman, Nestlé

S.A.’s vice president and global head of operations José Lopez provides some interesting insight

on how climate change in its more recent and future years has and will affect the world’s largest

food company. When asked about how climate change is affecting Nestlé behind the scenes, the

issue with increased prices for raw materials comes up, and how this ultimately affects farmers.

“Farming has to become a different player in the eyes of the consumer,” states Lopez. “I am

convinced that consumers will accept and understand that food cannot be the place where you

save most of your money…the place where you have to have a value understanding. We need to

educate everyone one about the real value of their purchasing activities” (qtd. from “Ferdman”).

The most important aspect to food production is access to raw materials; without a

consistent influx of raw ingredients, such as corn and soybeans (two of Nestlé’s most used

crops), food companies such as Nestlé aren’t able to manufacture many of the products that are

known to us on a frequent enough basis to keep up with demand. In fact, climate change has a

Page 4: EIP Final Paper

McKinnis 4

direct effect on such raw materials and will continue to get worse as climatic changes continue to

occur. Crop yields and harvest quality are extremely sensitive to major changes in the

environment, especially extreme weather, such as hurricanes and tornadoes, and abnormal

precipitation and temperature rates. With such biophysical changes to global crop production,

changes in food production and food prices will also be triggered in order to compensate for the

loss in crop production (Hallegate). The impact of these changes ultimately relies on how

farmers and countries adapt to the changing climatic events, and with modern technology

constantly evolving in order to meet our needs and issues, this may eventually become a feasible

task. However, there is still much work that needs to be done in order for this to begin getting

resolved.

Impact on Farming: As mentioned in the interview with Mr. Lopez, farming also has

taken a massive hit recently due to the staggering effects of the current climatic change trends.

They are directly affected as weather patterns shift, and such changes alter crop yields and

production of crucial plants that feed a mast majority of the world population. One of the most

at-risk crops is wheat, which is one of the main staple crops in the world. According the Wheat

Initiative, a project launched by G20 agricultural ministers, wheat provides about 20% of daily

protein and calories. It notes, “With a world population of 9 billion in 2050, wheat demand is

expected to increase by 60%. To meet the demand, annual wheat yield increases must grow

from the current level of below 1% to at least 1.6%” (qtd. from “Mooney”).

Unfortunately, a new study in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

dauntingly paints an unpleasant picture for the future of wheat. With current climatic trends, a

warming climate could drive the yields downward in not only the United States, but, possibly, all

over the world. According to Jesse Tack of the agricultural economies department of Mississippi

Page 5: EIP Final Paper

McKinnis 5

State University and two colleagues, “The net effect of warming on yields is negative…even

after accounting for the benefits of reduced exposure to freezing temperatures” (qtd. from

“Rooney”). This is no small matter, for wheat is the largest source of vegetable protein in low-

income countries (Mooney).

In a more local viewpoint, the study also compared the results of winter wheat trials

across Kansas with weather and precipitation data over a span of nearly 30 years. Kansas

produced wheat crop worth about $2.8 billion in 2013, but the study shows that this may no

longer be feasible. Winter wheat grows from September to May and faces two major

temperature-related threats during this cycle: extreme winter cold and extreme spring heat. As

for whether the Kansas-based research can be easily extrapolated to other regions where wheat is

grown around the world, that depends highly on the local climate, claims lead author Tack. As

long as the warming creates a situation where the temperatures in any given place more

frequently reach 34 degrees Celsius, or 92.3 degrees Fahrenheit, during the growing, the effects

could potentially harm wheat (Mooney).

Food Security and the Resulting Direct and Indirect Impacts from Climate Change

According to the Food and Agriculture Organization, food security is defined as a

“situation that exists when all people, at all times, have physical, social, and economic access to

sufficient, safe, and nutritious food that meets their dietary needs and food preferences for an

active and healthy life.” There are four aspects of food security that are necessary to discuss in

order to truly analyze the complete impact of climate change: availability, stability, access, and

utilization.

Page 6: EIP Final Paper

McKinnis 6

Availability: Food availability addresses the “supply side” of food security and is

determined by the level of food production, efficient water use, stock levels, and net trade.

Climate change affects agriculture and therefore food production in complex ways that are not

easy to resolve. It directly impacts food production by altering the agro-economical conditions

necessary to produce food products and indirectly affects the growth and distribution of incomes,

ultimately leading to a demand for agricultural produce. In addition, the decline in crop yields

and land sustainability, when coupled with the increasing carbon dioxide concentrations, limits

the food production business. As a result, adaptation utilizing available management procedures

and crops as well as the incorporation of modern technology to help improve crop and food

production efficiency are key in order to protect the availability of such important raw materials.

Stability: Another important factor that will influence the global food security is the

stability in reference to global climatic events and whether or not we can slow the negative

effects of such events to the point to where we can function more efficiently. Global weather

conditions are expected to continue to change and become more variable than what they are

today. For example, increased temperatures and, consequently, increased supplies of

atmospheric water vapor will encourage the development of more destructive and frequent

extreme events, including cyclones, hurricanes, floods and droughts. Through greater

fluctuations in crop yields and local food supplies and higher risks of landslides and floods,

which leads to erosion damage, they can unfavorably affect the stability of food supplies and

ultimately food security.

Utilization: Disease is a huge concern in regards to climate change and food security

especially when it comes to food utilization on a global scale, which may not seem to be the case

at first. However, climate change can also affect the ability of individuals to effectively utilize

Page 7: EIP Final Paper

McKinnis 7

food by altering the conditions for food safety and changing the disease pressure from vector,

water, and food-borne diseases. The primary concern in regards to food security is the

possibility of a vicious circle where diseases can enhance global hunger, further putting

populations that may suffer at more of a risk of attracting an infectious disease. This wouldn’t

just affect food production and safety; this could potentially result in a decline in labor

productivity and an increase in poverty and mortality. In addition, with increased precipitation,

this will promote the development of water-borne diseases that can be easily spread through

insects such as mosquitos. Extreme rainfall events, along with this, will increase the amount of

flooding in areas that are environmentally degraded and where basic public infrastructure,

including hygiene and sanitation, are absent.

Access: World hunger has always been a lingering global issue for such a long period of

time. Although as a global community we have improved quite dramatically in increasing access

to food for communities and families that are lacking such necessities, with the current and

potential climatic trends, this will become much more difficult. Much of this will be of a result

of an increase in food prices. Although many studies project very different figures for their

estimates on food prices in the future, all of them have acknowledge an increase of some sort,

depending on the product and raw material. Rises in global food prices will make it much more

difficult for people to gain access to necessary foods in order to maintain a healthy lifestyle of

fruits, vegetables, vitamins, and many other crucial ingredients that affect our health. However,

with the current trends, it is quite difficult to give a specific estimate of whether or not world

hunger and malnutrition will continue to be a problem (Schmidhuber).

So Now What?

Page 8: EIP Final Paper

McKinnis 8

There are four main entry points for adaptation and risk reduction strategies targeting at

increased food security in view of climate change. One of the biggest steps towards solving such

a complex topic is to increase food availability. Another lies in strategies that “ensure that those

who are at greatest risk of hunger can actually access and benefit from increased amounts food

and that protect the most vulnerable from the immediate impacts of climate change.” In order

for this to happen, we must improve disaster risk management, enhance social protection

schemes, and strengthening resilient community-based development.

Adaptation Strategies: Local people are crucial in adapting agriculture and food systems

to meet their needs as climate conditions continue to be altered. With the need to increase

production due to an increase in the global population (thus increasing demand), the speed and

magnitude of the expected climatic changes pose new challenges that must be dealt with

immediately. Traditional coping mechanisms are no longer going to guarantee and ensure food

security and prevent effects on nutritional status. Therefore, they must be complemented by the

introduction of technical innovations and enabling frameworks, requiring more research towards

the breeding of new and adapted varieties of traditional crops, as well as maintaining a consistent

standard with the traditional crops, that can not only tolerate climate variability but are suitable

for changed climatic conditions.

In regards to technological innovations, it is crucial that they will be easily accessible and

affordable for all communities to be able to implement into their societies, whether or not they

are financially stable. Such strategies have to be supported by strong institutions and enabling

policy and legal frameworks. Incentives and services for rural producers will more likely

encourage the involvement of such strategies in their local markets, which will potentially spread

to other markets as competition increases. Adaptation to climate change can incorporate a range

Page 9: EIP Final Paper

McKinnis 9

of successfully tested methods originating from sustainable agriculture and natural resource

management; however, this will involve considerable investments and changes in practices that

may take some time before beneficial results are evident. As a result of this, other responses

must complement with these strategies in order to address the immediate effects of climate

change (IASC Task Force on Climate Change).

Disaster Risk Management: With the United States being the hardest-hit nation from

disasters over the last twenty years at 472 events, there is much need to take even more

precaution into managing the risks that arise in light of natural disasters. A report published by

the United Nations outlines the numerical data found in relation to the frequency of weather-

related disasters all across the globe over a span of the past 20 years. According to Margareta

Wahlström, the head of the U.N. Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR), many of these

disasters are influence by the weather and climate; in fact, over the past 20 years, 90% of major

disasters have been caused by weather. “Weather and climate are major drivers of disaster risk,

and this report demonstrates that the world is paying a high price in lives lost,” states Wahlström.

“Economic losses are a major development challenge for many of these least developed

countries battling climate change and poverty” (qtd from “Kostigen”). As climate change leads

progressively towards increased extremes, such as storms, droughts, and high temperatures, the

challenge to the “humanitarian community” is not only to respond to the issue at hand, but to

also be much better prepared in light of such an extreme and manage the risk in a safe and

efficient manner. Recent approaches that integrate relief and response in long-term risk

management have started to influence how such disaster management programs are planned and

financed (IASC Task Force on Climate Change).

Page 10: EIP Final Paper

McKinnis 10

In order for this to truly become a viable solution, the complex distinction between long-

term risk reduction and short-term response needs to be established and understood by the mass,

while those who are most vulnerable to food insecurity must be protect as soon as possible from

the immediate effects of climate change. Planning the appropriate risk reduction and response

requires an understanding of risks and vulnerabilities in terms of areas who are at-risk, where

they are located, and an analysis of why they are in danger of food insecurity. With that in mind,

those people and communities who are vulnerable should always be the “primary owners and

drivers of any actions aimed at increasing the resilience to disasters” and is crucial that are

directly involved in the planning and implantation of any procedure and program in regards to

disaster risk reduction. Such action, however, should be linked and better integrated into

national development plans and strategies. Furthermore, sectoral organizations must be bridged

together in order to share timely and relevant information concerning risks and how they are

managed, providing up-to-date climatic information and making it accessible to vulnerable

communities and decision-makers (IASC Task Force on Climate Change).

Social Protection Schemes: With the global climate changing as vastly as it is, the

existing injustices in food security, food safety and nutrition are most certain to be distance even

more so than ever before, causing even more issues for those in vulnerable areas. Although

adapting food production systems could potentially increase the resilience of poor farmers to the

changing climate conditions, the vast majority of the undernourished people do not have

sufficient capacities and resources in order to be able to adapt to or at lease manage with the risks

posed by climate change. In order for this to be resolved, an urgent need of public support in the

form of social protection schemes, safety nets and other supportive measures must be pushed

immediately. Without such public action, vicious cycles that lead into chronic poverty traps are

Page 11: EIP Final Paper

McKinnis 11

going to not only going to continue, but potentially worsen as changes in the global climate

continue to occur. For example, droughts possess numerous effects on families, especially those

who are dependent on the success of their farms and livestock. When droughts occur, the crops

and livestock die, leaving the family in a financial bind; this bind ultimately results in more

negative occurrences that further affect the family in more ways apart from their financial

situation, including a reduction in the family’s food intake, number of meals, and the purchasing

of less expensive yet unhealthy foods. Access to formal social protection systems remains very

limited in developing countries. Currently, only 20% of the global population have easy access

such systems. Furthermore, effective targeting of the poorest and the most vulnerable people is

highly critical, ultimately depending on policymakers developing a sound understanding of these

vulnerabilities. In addition, apart from financial resources, which is quite obvious in this

situation, formulating social protection policies therefore demands a significant institutional

capacity which allows for international influences to assist in the development process (IASC

Task Force on Climate Change).

Resilient Community-Based Development: In regards to the occurrence of natural

disasters, it is highly important to enable conditions to ensure that communities affected by

disasters are able to build back systems which are more suitable and well-adapted for changing

climate conditions. Such a “climate-smart” relief, rehabilitation, and development is crucial in

the improvement of the livelihoods of low-income farmers and rural people, which ultimately

increase their overall resilience to future disasters and negative effects from changing climate

conditions. Achieving resilient communities, which requires that people must increase material

welfare and reduce their risk from negative natural occurrences, is bound up with people who are

attaining greater capacity to determine their own destiny. There are three factors that are crucial

Page 12: EIP Final Paper

McKinnis 12

in the development of resilient communities: (1) “the prospect of major new investment flows

focused on previously neglected lands,” (2) “incentivizing farmers through investments in agro-

ecological practices and in providing environmental services,” and (3) the incorporation of the

local community involved in policy making and the implantation of such policies and programs.

Such investments that are going toward supporting community development in view of food

security must be properly executed and unified in order to ensure the best results possible (IASC

Task Force on Climate Change).

Conclusion

Our current situation is not good, at all. There is so much that we are putting on the line

due to our carelessness over the past few hundred years. However, now we can no longer point

fingers. We must take action in order to reverse, or at least slow down, the effects of our

mistakes to not only protect the environment, but to also save our species from extinction. Food

defines who we are as people; it is what keeps us going on a bad day or prevents us from nearly

come face-to-face to the reaper. We must take charge now, because this is our home and we

must protect it in order to protect ourselves.

Page 13: EIP Final Paper

McKinnis 13

Works Cited

Ferdman, Roberto A. “How Climate Change is Affecting the World’s Biggest Food Company.”

The Washington Post. The Washington Post. 5 September 2014. Web. 17 October 2015.

Gilbert, Natasha. "One-third of Our Greenhouse Gas Emissions Come from

Agriculture." Nature.com. Nature Publishing Group, 31 Oct. 2012. Web. 10 Nov. 2015.

Hallegatte, Stephane, et al. Shock Waves: Managing the Effects of Climate Change on Poverty.

Washington, DC: International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World

Bank, 2016. The World Bank Open Knowledge Repository. Nd. Web. 10 November 2015.

IASC Task Force on Climate Change. "Climate Change Adaptation Must Prioritize Food

Security." Adaptation and Climate Change. Ed. Roman Espejo. Detroit: Greenhaven

Press, 2013. At Issue. Rpt. from "Climate Change, Food Insecurity, and Hunger." Vol. 1.

2009. Opposing Viewpoints in Context. Web. 6 Dec. 2015.

Kostigen, Thomas M. "U.S. Hardest-hit Nation for Weather-related Disasters." USA Today. USA

Today, 28 Nov. 2015. Web. 04 Dec. 2015.

Mooney, Chris. "Troubling New Research Says Global Warming Will Cut Wheat

Yields." Washington Post. The Washington Post, 11 May 2015. Web. 04 Dec. 2015.

Schmidhuber, Josef and Francesco N. Tubiello. “Global food security under climate change.”

PNAS 104.50 (2007): 19703-19708. Web. 09 Nov. 2015.

Vaughan, Adam. "Earth's Climate Entering New 'Permanent Reality' as CO2 Hits New

High." The Guardian. Guardian News and Media Limited, 9 Nov. 2015. Web. 10 Nov.

2015.