EIONET/EPA networks Workshop on climate change vulnerability, impact and adaptation
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Transcript of EIONET/EPA networks Workshop on climate change vulnerability, impact and adaptation
EIONET/EPA networks Workshop onclimate change vulnerability, impact and adaptation
EEA, 27-28 november 2007
Regional impacts and vulnerabilityThe Mediterranean (Italy)
Franco Desiato, Domenico Gaudioso, Francesca Giordano
APAT – Agenzia Nazionale per la Protezione dell’Ambiente e per i Servizi Tecnici
Primary impacts indicators
(temperature, precipitation, …..)
Medium to long term forecasted change
(i.e. 2071-2100 versus 1961-1990)
of mean temperature, cumulated precipitation,…)
From high-resolution global or regional AOGCM models ….
Temperature change - Southern Europe:
1900-2000 (observed); 2000-2100 (A1B scenario , 11 models)
Cumulated Precipitation change - 21 models ensemble
2080 - 2099 versus 1980 - 1999 Scenario A1B
DJF JJA %
Uncertainty by prediction models
Precipitation anomaly (mm) – Northern Italy - Winter
……..Primary impacts indicators
(temperature, precipitation, …..
Medium to long term forecasted change
BUT ALSO :
Current trends estimate from observations time series
IS NEEDED FOR:
• the knowledge of past/current impacts of climate change
• the continuous, in-progress verification of AOGCM forecasts
• the downscaling: impacts and vulnerability estimates are needed at the local scale
Trend estimates from observations time series
Require time series homogenization:
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original
• WMO WG on Homogenization and Quality Control in Climatological Databases;
• COST Action ES0601: Advances in homogenisation methods of climate series: an integrated approach
Mean temperature anomaly over Italy
Italy: 1961-2006 T = +0.94 °C 1980 – 2006 T = +1.54 °C
Global: 1961-2006 T +0.7 °C
Cumulated precipitation anomaly 1961-2006
Northern Italy Central Italy
Southern Italy
Primary impacts EXTREMES indicators
Example: Set of indicators form the WMO CLIVAR Working Group on Climate Change Detection:
• Frost days• Summer days• Tropical nights• Cold days, cold nights• Warm days, warm nights• Maximum absolute temperature• Minimum absolute temperature
Tropical nights - Italy
1961-2006 = +12,5 days/year 1978 – 2006 = +21 days/year
• Southern Europe and the entire Mediterranean BasinSouthern Europe and the entire Mediterranean Basin due to the combined effect of high temperature increases and reduced precipitation in areas already coping with water scarcity
• Mountain areasMountain areas, in particular the AlpsAlps, where temperatures increase rapidly leading to widespread melting of snow and ice changing river flows
• Coastal zonesCoastal zones due to sea level rise combined with increased risks for storms.
• Densely populated floodplainsDensely populated floodplains due to increased risks for storms, intense rainfall and flash floods leading to widespread damages to built-up areas and infrastructure.
From the GREEN PAPERGREEN PAPER 4 out of the 6 most vulnerable areasvulnerable areas in Europe concern
Southern Europe and/or the MediterraneanSouthern Europe and/or the Mediterranean:
Areas of potential vulnerability to climate change Areas of potential vulnerability to climate change in Italyin Italy
Sensitivity to desertification
3% High
33% Medium
63% Low
1% Very low
DISMED Project
Desertification degradation of land in arid, semi-arid and dry sub-humid areas. It is caused primarily by human activities and climatic variations (UNCCD).
Areas at high risk: Sardinia, Sicily, Puglia, Basilicata
Flooding risk
Areas at high risk: Pianura Padano-Veneta, Versilia, Fondi and Pontina plains.
1500km out of 8000km at risk of erosion and flooding
Hydro-geological risk
Areas at high risk: 9,8% of the Italian territory- 4,1% floods- 5,2% landslides- 0,5% avalanches
• MARINE AND COASTAL SYSTEMSMARINE AND COASTAL SYSTEMS
• WATER RESOURCESWATER RESOURCES
• BIODIVERSITY AND FORESTSBIODIVERSITY AND FORESTS
• AGRICULTUREAGRICULTURE
• TOURISMTOURISM
Systems/Sectors of critical impactscritical impacts for Italy
CURRENT SITUATIONCURRENT SITUATION
Sea level: unchanged
Area experiencing erosion and at flooding risk: 1.500 km of low-lying coasts
Coastal plains at risk: 33 Italian coastal plains
FUTURE SCENARIOSFUTURE SCENARIOS
Sea level rise of the Mediterranean Sea up to 38 cm by 2100
Area at flooding risk: 4.500 km2
North: 25,4%; Centre: 5,4%; South: 62,6%; Sardinia: 6,6%
MARINE AND COASTAL SYSTEMSMARINE AND COASTAL SYSTEMS
Some example of indicators:
CURRENT SITUATIONCURRENT SITUATION
Glaciers: current glacier retreat in the Alps (-51% km2 during the last 150 years)
Snow cover: reduction of length/quantity of snow
Since 1990 anticipation of spring melt period of 15 days at 2500 m
Po River flow: 391 m3/s (July 2007); historical average value 1.156 m3/s
FUTURE SCENARIOSFUTURE SCENARIOS
Glaciers: glacier retreat between 30% and 70% by 2100
loss of glaciers below 3500 m by 2050
Snow cover: decrease of snow cover duration (several weeks/each °C increase)
Drought events frequency: increase from 1/100 years to 1/50 years or less by 2070
Reduction of alpine rivers flow: up to 80% during the summer period by 2070
WATER RESOURCES
Some example of indicators:
CURRENT SITUATION
Forest area: 10,5 M ha (2005) = 35% national territory –> increasing
Plant species distribution: shift at higher altitudes during the 20th century (0,5 – 4 m/decade)
Plant phenology: mean anticipation of phenological phases (3days/decade)
FUTURE SCENARIOS
Plant species distribution: shift of tree line in alpine areas (100 m)
- 62% of mountain plant species by 2080 (A1 scenario)
Coastal wetlands: - 20% by 2080 (SRES scenarios)
BIODIVERSITY AND FORESTS
Some example of indicators:
ITALY ITALY – Outputs from the National Conference on Climate – Outputs from the National Conference on Climate ChangeChange
From the Italian National Conference on Climate Change and from preparatory workshops, several indications emerge for the priority actions to be undertaken by the Ministry of Environment, Land and Sea.
By 2008By 2008 the Italian Ministry of the Environment, Land and Sea commits to drafting a national sustainable adaptation and land protection strategynational sustainable adaptation and land protection strategy.
Two important outcomes of the conference:
- The CLIMATE MANIFESTOCLIMATE MANIFESTO
- The first 13 ACTIONS FOR SUSTAINABLE 13 ACTIONS FOR SUSTAINABLE ADAPTATIONADAPTATION
ITALY ITALY – Outputs from the National Conference on Climate – Outputs from the National Conference on Climate ChangeChange
The first 13 ACTIONS FOR SUSTAINABLE ADAPTATION13 ACTIONS FOR SUSTAINABLE ADAPTATION concern:- research and knowledge work - extreme events - energy savings - marine resources- new models of consumption - tourism - water resources - health - agriculture - meteo-climatic early warning - coasts - public awareness- environmental incentives for labour and enterprises
The CLIMATE MANIFESTOCLIMATE MANIFESTO points out the following needs:- development of climate change mitigation policiesmitigation policies - coordinationcoordination of mitigationmitigation measures with adaptationadaptation measures- definition of a National Adaptation Plan to Climate ChangeNational Adaptation Plan to Climate Change- promotion of measures to assist developing countriesdeveloping countries - monitoring of progressmonitoring of progress at regular intervals through the National National
ConferenceConference on CC on CC
SPAIN SPAIN – National Plan for the adaptation to climate change– National Plan for the adaptation to climate change
20042004: previous step, ECCE project “A preliminary general assessment of the impacts in Spain due to the effects of climate change”
02-200602-2006: presentation at National Climate Council, Coordination Commission for Policies on Climate Change, Sectoral Conference of Environment
03-200603-2006: public consultation
07-200607-2006: formal approval at CCPCC
Every 4 yearsEvery 4 years: monitoring and assessment Report of the National Plan of adaptation to climate change, that will guide further developments
FRANCE FRANCE – National Strategy for the adaptation to climate – National Strategy for the adaptation to climate changechange
The French National StrategyFrench National Strategy for the adaptation to for the adaptation to climate changeclimate change has been drafted by the National Observatory for the Effects of Global Warming.
It represents an intermediate step between the scientific outputs and the drafting of an action plan.
November 2006November 2006: approval by the Inter-Ministry Committee for Sustainable Development
Four objectivesFour objectives:
- to assure safetysafety and public healthpublic health
- to limit the increase of inequalities in front of the riskinequalities in front of the risk
- to limit the costs through preventive measurespreventive measures
- to preserve the natural heritagenatural heritage
PORTUGAL PORTUGAL – The SIAM Project (Scenarios, Impacts and – The SIAM Project (Scenarios, Impacts and Adaptation Measures)Adaptation Measures)
AIMAIM: to carry out the first integrated assessment of the impacts of climate change in the country.
The work focuses on a core set of socio-economic and biophysical impacts, and is based upon scenarios of future climate produced by climate models.
Impacts on specific sectorsImpacts on specific sectors: fisheries, forestry and biodiversity, human health, water resources, agriculture, coastal zones, and energy
SIAM IISIAM II: application of the general methodology of project SIAM at a smaller geographic scale in order to provide responses to decision makers in the public sector.