EIA’s crude-by-rail data · PDF fileEIA’s crude-by-rail data For EIA Energy...
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www.eia.gov U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis EIA’s crude-by-rail data For EIA Energy Conference June 16, 2015 | Washington, DC By Mindi Farber-DeAnda, Biofuels and Emerging Technologies Team Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, and Biofuels Analysis
Transcript of EIA’s crude-by-rail data · PDF fileEIA’s crude-by-rail data For EIA Energy...
www.eia.gov U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis
EIA’s crude-by-rail data
For EIA Energy Conference June 16, 2015 | Washington, DC
By Mindi Farber-DeAnda, Biofuels and Emerging Technologies Team Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, and Biofuels Analysis
Takeaways
• At the end of March, EIA published monthly crude-by-rail (CBR) data along with its monthly petroleum supply balances
• EIA monthly data provides credible and publicly-available information on CBR movements, including historical monthly data starting in 2010
• Inter-regional CBR movements improve EIA’s petroleum balances by reducing unaccounted-for crude oil supply
• By including cross-border and intra-regional CBR data as well as the inter-regional CBR movements, the new data provides insight into total CBR traffic, which is of interest to other agencies and the public
EIA's crude-by-rail data June 16, 2015 2
Refinery receipts thousand barrels per day
Note: National CBR estimate from EIA using AAR weekly carload data, minus assumed petroleum products. Source: EIA and estimates based on data from the Surface Transportation Board and others.
3 EIA's crude-by-rail data June 16, 2015
New EIA CBR data vastly improve our understanding of refinery rail receipts
0
200
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600
800
1,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
PADD 5 PADD 4 PADD 3 PADD 2 PADD 1
After
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400
600
800
1,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
CBR estimate
Before
NA
Refinery + terminal receipts thousand barrels per day
Source: EIA and estimates based on data from the Surface Transportation Board and other information
4 EIA's crude-by-rail data June 16, 2015
Unaccounted-for crude oil (EIA’s adjustment factor) in EIA’s regional balances is greatly reduced when CBR data is included
-150
50
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450
650
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Unaccounted-for supply without CBR data
PADD 1 unaccounted-for crude oil supply thousand barrels per day
-150 -50 50
150 250 350
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Unaccounted-for supply without CBR data
PADD 5 unaccounted-for crude oil supply thousand barrels per day
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650
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Unaccounted-for supply with CBR data
PADD 1 unaccounted-for crude oil supply thousand barrels per day
-150 -50 50
150 250 350
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Unaccounted-for supply with CBR data
5 EIA's crude-by-rail data June 16, 2015
EIA’s CBR data process integrates multiple data streams
Estimated monthly carloads STB Quarterly
Commodity Statistics
EIA products (aggregated statistics
in barrels)
STB Carload Waybill Sample
• Only 7 Class 1 RRs • Not Sampled • Minimal details
• Inter/intra-PADD movements
• Canada imports/exports
• Class I and short line RRs that meet STB carload threshold • Sampled RR bills-of-lading • Highly detailed
1
2
3 4
• Use Class 1 carload data • Apply expansion factors • Apportion CBR movement
by month, PADD • Short line carloads
EIA data/estimation
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• 2-4 month estimates using multiple techniques
• Carload-to-barrel conversions for each regional pairing
NEB Canadian CBR exports
• Volumes and API gravity • Highly detailed
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Major shale oil producing areas indicate CBR originations within Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts (PADDs)
EIA's crude-by-rail data June 16, 2015 6
Western Canada Sedimentary Basin
Bakken
Niobrara
Permian
Eagle Ford
Haynesville
Utica
Marcellus
Crude oil infrastructure indicate openings for CBR: refineries, pipelines and waterways, and rail terminals
EIA's crude-by-rail data June 16, 2015 7
PADD 5 PADD 4 PADD 2
Representational inter-PADD pipeline flows exclude short-distance movements.
1 100 500 1200 Thousand barrels per day
PADD 1
PADD 3
2010 inter-PADD crude flows: pipeline and rail
EIA's crude-by-rail data June 16, 2015 8
2010 inter-PADD crude flows: pipeline
PADD 5 PADD 4 PADD 2
1 100 500 1200 Thousand barrels per day
PADD 1
PADD 3
Inter-PADD pipeline flows are faded to highlight rail movements.
2014 inter-PADD crude flows: pipeline
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2014 inter-PADD crude flows: pipeline and rail
PADD 5
PADD 4 PADD 2
Representational inter-PADD pipeline flows exclude short-distance movements.
1 100 500 1200 Thousand barrels per day
PADD 1
PADD 3
PADD 5 PADD 4 PADD 1
PADD 3
PADD 2
Representational inter-PADD pipeline flows exclude short-distance movements.
1 100 500 1200 Thousand barrels per day
Inter-PADD pipeline flows are faded to highlight rail movements.
-2,000
-1,500
-1,000
-500
0
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1,000
1,500
2,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015*
Rail Tanker and barge Pipeline Net receipts
Shipments
PADD 2 shipments and receipts by pipeline and rail thousand barrels per day
* 2015 data are averaged through March Source: EIA and estimates based on data from the Surface Transportation Board and other information
10 EIA's crude-by-rail data June 16, 2015
Crude outbound from PADD 2 continues to grow aided by CBR
Receipts
-1,500
-1,000
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015*
Rail Tanker and barge Pipeline Net receipts
Receipts
Shipments
PADD 3 shipments and receipts by mode thousand barrels per day
* 2015 data are averaged through March Source: EIA and estimates based on data from the Surface Transportation Board and other information
11 EIA's crude-by-rail data June 16, 2015
PADD 3 is now a net receiver of crude oil aided by CBR
Rail enhances PADD 4’s takeaway capacity
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-800
-600
-400
-200
0
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800
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015*
Rail Pipeline Net receipts
Receipts
Shipments
PADD 4 shipments and receipts by mode thousand barrels per day
* 2015 data are averaged through March Source: EIA and estimates based on data from the Surface Transportation Board and other information
EIA's crude-by-rail data June 16, 2015
0
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1,500
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015*
non-Canadian imports
domestic rail
domestic pipeline/water Canadian imports field production
Net crude oil supply to PADD 1 by source thousand barrels per day
* 2015 data are averaged through March Source: EIA and estimates based on data from the Surface Transportation Board and other information
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CBR receipts in PADD 1 are displacing non-Canadian crude imports
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500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015*
domestic rail receipts imports field production
PADD 5 field production, imports, and domestic rail receipts thousand barrels per day
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PADD 5 CBR receipts and imports substitute for long-term declining domestic production
* 2015 data are averaged through March Source: EIA and estimates based on data from the Surface Transportation Board and other information
-100
-50
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2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015*
Net Imports
CBR exports to Canada
Crude-by rail movements between the U.S. and Canada thousand barrels per day
* 2015 data are averaged through March Source: EIA estimates based on data from the Surface Transportation Board and other information
15 EIA's crude-by-rail data June 16, 2015
Canada-U.S CBR trade is still modest in both directions
CBR imports from Canada
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Annual CBR flows, 2010 – 2014 2010 2011
2013
EIA's crude-by-rail data June 16, 2015
2012
2014
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Next up
• EIA is improving the CBR data series
– Near-month estimation
– Crude imports from Canada by rail
– Analysis and processing of data
• EIA plans to extend its rail analysis to other energy commodities
‒ Biofuels (ethanol)
‒ Natural gas liquids (propane)
‒ Petroleum products
