EFRTC General AssemblyBrussels, 28 November 2008

Worldwide market for railway infrastructure

UNIFE Study Key Findings & Outlook 2016

1. The world market for rail infrastructure : status quo, trends and forecasts

2. Overall industry trends and impact on the rail infrastructure market

Agenda

Total rail supply market volume exceeds EUR 120 bn, infrastructure EUR 22 bn

Key data Worldwide Rail Market Study

22

10

37

53

1231)

Rail control

Infrastructure

Rolling stock

Services

TOTAL MARKET

Average market volumes 05-07 Growth p.a.

3.0-3.5%

2.5-3.0%

2.0-2.5%

2.0-2.5%

2.0-2.5%

17

10

31

27

861)

Rail control

Infrastructure

Rolling stock

Services 3.5-4.0%

2.0-2.5%

2.5-3.0%

3.0-3.5%2.5-3.0%

ACCESSIBLE MARKET2)

Average market volumes 05-07 Growth p.a.

1) Figures are including market volume for project integration,Growth rates are 9-year average growth rates

2) ACCESSIBLE MARKET: Part of the market open to any external supplier3) Infrastructure segment includes rail, sleepers, ballast, ballastless, catenary,

traction power supply 3

Accessible market volume rail market [EUR m] – average 05-071)

Western Europe

Eastern Europe

CIS

NAFTA

Rest of America

Asia/Pacific

Africa/Middle East

Infra-structure

Rolling stock

Rail control

Services

35

WesternEurope

24

NAFTA

21Asia/Pacific

20

Other

37

32Services

20Infra-structure

11

Rail Control

REGIONS [%]

SEGMENTS [%]

1) Excluding market volume for project integration

35% of the rail market volume originates from Western Europe

4

RollingStock

6,307 10,718 4,641 7,651 29,317

0,986 1,615 0,587 1,709 4,897

0,639 2,500 0,421 2,004 5,564

5,702 5,260 1,098 8,739 20,799

0,238 0,787 0,187 1,508 2,720

2,652 8,335 2,217 4,976 18,180

0,570 2,090 0,502 0,349 3,511

17,094 31,305 9,653 26,936 84,988

Facts and figures on the rail infrastructure market

VHS, mainline, freight

1.5 million km of passenger and freight infrastructure installed worldwide, 75% of which located in NAFTA, Asia/Pacific and Western Europe

69% of world’s rail infrastructure is mainline

half a million km of electrified track currently installed worldwide

-1/3 in Western Europe where half of all track km are already electrified

- NAFTA represents only 1% of world electrified infrastructure

Urban rail

70% of world’s 56,000 km of urban track are dedicated to light rail operation

Metro infrastructure gaining share in Asia/Pacific and Western Europe, light rail infrastructure mainly in CIS and Eastern Europe

Annual growth rates accessible market volume 2007-2016 [% p.a.]

Expected growth per product category ranges from 2% to 4%

6

Infrastructure Rolling Stock Rail control Services

Above average growth foreseen for electrification in the mainline segment

High growth ex-pected for (V)HS trains, intercity multiple units and light rail vehicles – slight decline in demand for coaches

Significant growth foreseen for ETCS (within and outside of Europe) and CBTC systems

Solid, global development and increasing accessibility expected, also due to increasing rolling stock base

2.5% – 3.0% 2.0% – 2.5% 3.0 – 3.5% 3.5% – 4.0%

Regional growth focus - mainline

Annual growth rates, accessible market, superstructure and electrification, VHS/ mainline, 2007-2016 [%]

Rest of America and NAFTA to enter VHS market in next few years

Negative growth rate for Eastern Europe to be explained by Turkish important orders in 05-07

Regional growth focus – urban rail

Annual growth rates, accessible market, superstructure and electrification,urban rail, 2007-2016 [%]

in the LT, need for mass transport systems in growing metropolitan areas (Asia)

Short-term growth boosted by huge rolling stock and infrastructure projects

Short-term (2008-2010) and long-term annual growth rates of annual market volume for rolling stock and infrastructure (EUR bn)

Leasing & Financingfacilitates operators' demand and generates additional demand through inter-nationalisation of leasing companies

Shortage of engi- neering capacity may become the bottleneck for growth

Urbanisation

results in additional and lasting demand for public rail transport, esp. in emerging megacities and metropolitan areas

ERTMS

opens European markets and creates additional demand from implementation outside of Europe

Ecological awareness & energy consumption favour rail as an environ- mentally friendly transport mode

Deregulation and liberalisationhigher competition for rail operation increases demand for new rolling stock

Selection of relevant major trends

Overall trends favor the industry's development

10

Indicates impact on the industry

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