Effects of Protection Measures for Lesser White-fronted Goose in

Europe including European Russia

©Lauri Kahanpää, 2007

To prepare protection of the Lesser White-fronted Goose (LWfG) Anser erythropus, best possible information about the species, its biology and current status, is of vital importance. Today, a wealth of such information is available. It is possible to calculate the future of the various European populations of the LWfG in dependence of planned protection measures and then choose optimal protection.

An easy to use computer model doing and presenting such calculations tis available at http://www.piskulkaconf.tk/.

In this talk we

1) Explain what the model calculates2) Feed the model with two different action plans to see what kind

of results we should expect implementing such plans.3) Estimate the reliability of the biological input data.

Introduction

Biological parameters for each of 6 interacting populations:- juvenil and adult mortality- breeding success - initial numbers of birds - emigration between populations etc.

Inputs

Numbers describing year by year protection efforts:- number of goslings caught in Russia for breeding in captivity- numbers of goslings released to Nature in Sweden - numbers of goslings released to Nature in Finland- other efforts (?)

When using the model, you put in your best available information for

Then you sput in a mix of protection efforts:

The six European populations in the model are (called)- the Norwegian population (migration SE!) - the (European) Russian population (migration SE!) - the Swedish (reintroduced) population (migration SW!)- the (future) Finnish population (migration SW!)- the captive Swedish population- the captive Finnish population

Outputs

The model forecasts the future for these populations in the input scenario and displays the results as charts

Free Fennoscandian individuals

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First scenario: If nothing new is done:

. Norwegian (SE-migrating) Swedish (SW migrating)1:st year mortality 78 % 25 %2:nd year mortality 16 % 20 %adult mortality 16 % 10 %breeding success / ad ind 0,5 0,3GROWTH RATE -5 % + 5%

Background data

First scenario again. Chart for all free populations:

. Russian (European) Captive (Theoretical)1:st year mortality 76 % 20 %2:nd year mortality 13 % 12%adult mortality 16 % 10 %breeding success / ad ind 0,5 0,35GROWTH RATE -3 % + 8%

European A. erythropus

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Do we know what is going on Russia?Individuals in European Russia

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This chart builds on the data:500 to 800 spring individuals in European Russia (Morozov and Syroechkowski 2002)240 breeding pairs in Europe (BirdLife 2004)

At least 20 per cent loss for Europe(an Russia) 1990 to 2000 ( annual 2 %) (BirdLife 2004)20-29 per cent loss for European Russia 1995 to 2000 ( annual 4-6 %) (BirdLife 2004)30-49 per cent loss for European Russia 1995 to 2005 ( annual 3-5 %) (IUCN 2004)

The following slides show the effects of two different protection

plans

For comparison, we think of the one plan to be carried out in Sweden, the other in Finland. Results of each are are plotted in the same charts.

Importing young LWfG from Russia to captivityHow many each year? 5 to Sweden in 2008-2025

none to Finland (Use current stock!)

Initial stock in captivityHow many to begin with? 8 in Sweden (Imported Russian)

70 in Finland (Selected captive)

Releasing young LWfG to freedomHow many each year? 15 in Sweden 2008-2025

15 in Finland 2008-2025 (the same!)but only, if goslings available in captivity (!)

The plans:

Effect of Catching annually 5 in European Russia

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How much will catching speed up extinction in Russia?

Effect of Catching 10 each year in Optimal and Pessimal Russian Scenarios .

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Future of captive populations

From Russia each year5 to Sweden ”constant import” (total 85) 0 to Finland ”no import” (total 0 )To Freedom each year ”almost all goslings are released” (maximally 15 S + 15 F)

At start in 2007:8 in Sweden ”new birds scenario”, 70 in Finland ”current birds scenario

Relases total: 252

Captive and Releases in SWE and FIN

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Efffect on free populations

Observations:Russian birds should better be caught soon - or never.The trend-turn in 2014 is mainly due to ”Finnish”restocking based on the current captive population.In ”Sweden”, the current free population is the basic growth ground. The next slide shows this in detail!

European Free Living

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NOR SWEFIN RUS

”Swedish” restocking with new (Russian) birds

The plan labeled ”Swedish” was: Import from Russia : 5/ yearRelease plan: 15/yearPossible releases: will be: (see separate chart ) (total 74, average 3)Observation: Releases in this plan do not contribute much to growth of reintroduced population. Reasons for failure of the plan labeled ”Swedish”: a) No initial captive stock b) Too early releases: No population growth in captivity

Sweden and Norway

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Comparison of the plans labeled ”Swedish” and ”Finnish”

”Swedish” scenario:Initially 8Import 5/yearall goslings releasedGoal 200 pairs

”Finnish” scenario:Initially 70No importmax 15 releases/yearGoal 100 pairs

Reaching Swedish Goal?

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Reaching "Finnish Goal"?

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GOALFin

The pale blue pillars represent growth of current Swedish population without further restocking. The dark blue pillars represent the planned scenario labeled ”Swedish”.

Other scenariosEuropean Free Living

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”No restocking at all” will result in a total European LWfG population of 500 individuals in 2025

European Free Living

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The model plans ”Sweden” and ”Finland” described above will result in a total European LWfG population of 750 individuals in 2025

Modifying the plan by importing 6/y to Finland will result in 830

European Free Living

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The following slide will give another view of the comparison between doing nothingand adapting the ”optimized” third plan above. This time we plot the effect for the EU only, neglecting Russia.

Restocking done

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FINSWENOR

Restocking in the EU

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ConclusionsWithout restocking

-the Norwegian population will die out. Another test run shows: Adult mortality must be halved (!) to stop decline in Norway.- the (European) Russian population will lose some 30 %- the Swedish (reintroduced) population will gain some 30 %- no Finnish population will exist

The plans essentially account to transporting LWfG from one place in Europe to another. Positive effects result from keeping them where they multiply fastest. Captivity is such a place, Freedom in Sweden another - not as fast, but more natural and risk free (and cost free). Russian caught ”fresh” captive birds

-Will easily harm the Russian free population as seen in the charts-Will only contribute to a minor increase in the EU population

70 founder birds -Will not even be sufficiently many to reach for a modest “Finnish” goal of 100 breeding pairs in 2025 - but close to that.- Are about half of the available total captive (“clean”) population in Europe

Thank You for Your Attention!

If questions:- The biological data used to produce these slides is adapted to the best knowledge available. - A full account on this as well as on the mathematics is given in the background document available on the same web site where you find the model itself.- The effects of other protection measures besides restocking have been tested for more than two decades. No positive effects have been observed.