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Effects of climate change on aquatic ecosystem & associated social & economic considerations in the
Yakima River Basin.
Alec G. Maule, Supervisory Research PhysiologistUSGS, WFRC, Columbia River Research Laboratory
Cook, Washington
Alec Maule – Project ManagerDeWayne Cecil – Chief Science Applications, Climate ChangeMark Mastin & Frank Voss (WaWSC) - Physical modelsJim Hatten & Tom Batt – Habitat criteria, GIS, DSSMatt Mesa & Jill Hardiman – BioenergeticsPat Connolly & Russ Perry – Fish pop analyses, Cohort survivalJessica Montag (Ft Collins, CO) — SociologistLynne Koontz (Ft Collins, CO) – EconomistChris Lynch, (BOR-Yakima) - Water management (RiverWare)David Graves — Tributary Water Temps
Columbia River Inter-Tribal Fish Commission
Habitat Physical Population Community
Bioenergetics
Linking models to predict CC effects: Yakima River Basin
Social & Economic analyses
Change Scenarios
Early2020-2030
Base1981 -2005
Mid20402050
WatershedModel
RiverWare
TemperatureModel
HydrodynamicModel
GISModeling
Habitat maps
Habitat DSS
Climate Change in the Yakima
Bovee et al. 2008
Mastin 2008
Bureau of Reclamation
Change Scenarios
Early2020-2030
Base1988 -2006
Mid20402050
WatershedModel
RiverWare
TemperatureModels
HydrodynamicModel
GISModeling
Habitat maps
Habitat DSS
Bioenergetics Model
Growth, Development
Migration, Reproduction
Cohort Survival Model
(Population)
Interactions(Community)
Global Climate Change Decision Support System
Social & EconomicAnalyses
Karen Jenni & Tim Nieman, DA Consultants
Habitat Physical Population Community
Bioenergetics
Decision Analysis (DA)
Social & Economic Analyses
DA Stakeholders Workshop – July 2009; 20+ attendees
Results: • Shifted species of concern -- steelhead• Added temp modeling tributaries & lower river• Columbia River Inter-Tribal Fish Commission• Developed a conceptual model of Yakima Basin
Irrigation DistrictsLocal elected officials
Fed, State & Tribal F &WFed & State Water Managers
Baseline & Future Hydrographs
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1-Jan
1-Feb
1-Mar
1-Apr
1-May
1-Jun 1-Jul
1-Aug
1-Sep
1-Oct
1-Nov
1-Dec
NA
P1
P2
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P1
P2
Gap Wapato
Baseflow
Coho salmon fry rearing
Baseline vs. Future Habitat Estimates
GapWapato
Coho Fry Habitat (hectares)
Current 2020-2029 2040-2049 Current 2020-2029 2040-2049
Flows – decreasing; Lower in Wapato,Higher in Gap
Habitat based on water velocity and depth per Bovee et al. (2008)
Sensitivity AnalysisDecrease in flows; flow higher in Gap,
lower in Wapato
Gap Wapato
Current Regulation
Current Regulation
“Flip-Flop”Water Flows
“Flip-Flop”Water Flows
Different Geomorphology
Habitat Physical Population Community
Bioenergetics
Social & Economic Analyses
1. Intro, Stakeholders’ workshop and conceptual model2. Mainstem temperature modeling3. Tributary temperature modeling4. Temperature and bioenergetics of juvenile steelhead and
Chinook salmon5. Hydrograph and available species- & life-stage-specific
habitat6. Estimating the effects of CC on the social & economic life of
the Yakama Tribe
Chapters
Where a River Takes You: Climate Change Effects on Social Values of Tribal Aquatic Systems
Jessica M Montag, Ph.D. Ft Collins Science
Center
Katie Swan, InternYakama Nation