The Roles Electronic and Mobile Commerce Play in the Spread of Influenza A

By Benjamin RogojanUndergraduateUniversity of Washington Bothell,School of Business

Abstract.

This review will examine the role at which increasing technology plays in the transfer of

influenza A. The changes in methods of electronic communication and commerce in the age of

mobile and electronic communication have played a role in the spread of influenza A. In

comparison to previous global epidemics the speed at which products and traveling business

persons travel has increased. These changes pose a future risk for spreading new pathogens,

especially one as volatile as influenza a virus such as the 2009 H1N1 swine flu epidemic. Due to

the slow growth rate of the virus in incubation CDC took a full year to ship 120 million vaccines

to the public. During this period influenza A H1N1/09 had already reached 214 countries. The

rate of mutation of Influenza has been gradually increasing and new strains have shown

phenotypes of being more virulent as well as resistant to medications and vaccines. Combined

with the current global market, it will be difficult global health organizations to prevent an

epidemic from becoming a pandemic due to increased rate of global trade and travel.

Keywords

Formites, Hemeglutinin, Neuraminidase, Phenotype, Antigenic

Introduction

The Internet first became public in 1995 following the decommissioning of NSFNET the

restricted access to the internet only to education organizations and Military operations (Hilbert,

2011). Once this law was decommissioned it allowed for the internet to become commercialized.

Originally designed for communication amongst scientist across far distances (Gromov, 1995),

the Internet was quickly integrated into commercial utilization and the first product purchased

over the secure Internet occurred in April 1995 (Amnesty, 1995). These changes in methods of

commerce continued in the preceding years. From eBay to Amazon, basic cell phones to

smartphones, the forms of E (M)-commerce began to exponentially grow (Jones, 2013).

Currently, over 200 million households in the US contain at least one computer and 300 million

people subscribe to cell phone providers (Miniwatts, 2014) and an internet connection.

With the increase in E (M)-commerce, technology, and various forms of electronic

communication, it became much easier for products to be purchased. There is no longer need to

travel to make purchases at a store when a person can use an electronic device to purchase what

they need. (Harlan Lebo, 2010). Instead, products began to travel internationally and consumers

began to demand a faster rate of shipping. In response, executives who need to work with their

international branches need to meet more and visit their new locations (Teytlaman, 2012). In the

same way products were being shipped internationally to meet a growing demand from the

public (Rodrigue, 2011). Furthermore, in 2003, the first ssmartphone with Internet capabilities,

the Blackberry, allowed the end-user to utilize both internet and application based software

mobile. The phone was soon popularized by 2006 (Halevy, 2009). This smartphone’s glory was

short-lived, however, as the iPhone and Android smartphones began to appear on the market in

2007 (Apple, Year? Citation for Android?). In response to the increase in smartphone demand,

cell phone providers began to require data transfer capabilities, as well as new application

software and business capabilities. This lead to the increased usage of Internet and E(M)-

commerce (Cromar, 2010). Soon 2G went to 3G, then 3G went to 4G, further increasing the

speed and frequency at which purchases and communications could be made. This began to

create a matrix of larger interactions amongst individuals from greater distances, which in turn

has increased the average amount of human interactions per capita (Christly, 2005). On average,

a person will have a close contact encounter with about 3.4 people in any given day (Mikolajzyk,

2007). This number increases for highly active members of society, this includes the

international business executive, and people considered to be highly sociable tend to be at a

higher risk of human interactions (Christly, 2005). All in all, these members of society are also

increasing their risk of coming into contact with a contagious host (Teytlaman, 2012).

Influenza A is caused by a single stranded RNA virus that requires either physical contact

or encounters with aerosol particles from a sneeze or cough within a range of about 6 feet in

order to infect a new host (CDC, 2014). The virus is susceptible to UV light and heat, and it

often spreads best in the dryer and colder months, scientist attribute this mostly due to the

amount of water vapor in the air making it more difficult to travel in warmer wetter

months(however, in tropical climates flu is a year round issue) (Lowen 2007). Unlike many

disease causing vireuses, such as those which cause polio, measles, hepatitis, and small pox,

which have vaccíneas that provide lifelong protection with boosters, influenza A’s capsid, which

is it’s shell made of segmented proteins that protect the RNA genetic material. Influenza A’s

capsid is constantly changing, due to the constantly changing receptors located on the capsids

surface scientist must constantly predict the mutations and come up with a subsequent vaccine

every season(Influenza, 2013). Influenza A virus’s greatest method of fitness is to avoid the

human immune system and seasonal vaccines by mutating its RNA randomly through continues

replication (Influenza, 2009). In particular, this virus is capable of altering two of its outer

Receptor proteins that allow it to enter the cell. Hemanglutinin (HA) a glycoprotein

receptor located on the viral capsid, binds with Salic acid on

the cell membrane, and then later allows the capsid to access

the cells endosome membrane(Russell, 2008).

Neuraminidase (NA) acts as an enzyme, following the viral

capsids docking it cleaves the HA protein from Salic acid.

In fig. 1 hemanglutinin is in green, and neuraminidase is in

blue (Enami, 2009). Currently there are 18 different

varieties of HA proteins and 11 different NA, in which each specific strain has small alternations

(CDC, 2014). Despite the many varieties of this virus, there are only a few, however, that are

virulent to humans, including H1N1 and H2N3 (WHO 2008). Recent advances in RNA

sequencing and networking data bases such as FLUDB have allowed researchers to follow

strains and examine their mutations, as was the case with the recent H1N1 breakout (Squires,

2012). This new ability allows comparison to previous pathogenic outbreaks to determine

relative differences. During the past decade, the change to E (M)-commerce has influenced the

rate of person and product movement, increasing the probability of viral particles being

transferred from host to host.

Humans have changed the way they purchase merchandise as products have become

more accessible using E (M)-commerce. Changes in technology and a high demand for products

have pushed companies to offer better services to their customer, including a larger variety of

products produced in a variety of countries and regions. This has therefore increased the distance

Figure 1. Influenza A Viral Capsid Diagram

at which products are sent and received. In turn, the necessity for travel of business people,

marketing managers etc., has increased the chance of infected hosts coming into contact with

unaffected people.

Research Methods

This review will examine the trends in the field of electronic communication and mobile

commerce, and the plausible effects the changes in communication and mobile technology play

in the spread of influenza A. By examining the Internet usage, both rurally and in business

settings, and the increase in E (M)-commerce technologies and the roles they play on customer

demands for international trade and speed. Comparing current trade and travel abilities, to

previous abilities in earlier points in history will be used to compare the previous rates of

transmission of infections to current influenza A and its ability to mutate its genetic material.

Influenza

Influenza causes on average 30,000 deaths and over 200,000 hospitalizations in the U.S. per year

(Thompson, 2004). The CDC tracks the spread and RNA alterations of influenza, particularly

Type A. A close watch is kept over influenza A virus due to two main factors: (1) influenza A

virus can infect a large spectrum of species (i.e. birds, horses, pigs, humans, etc.) and it has the

ability to occasionally jump species, creating concerns for human immunity to new strains

(Citation), and (2) the innate volatility of Influenza A virus’s RNA sequences, particularly the

sequences linked to the translation of HA receptor glycoprotein and NA (Influenza 2009). These

changes, however, are not limited to the HA, and NA protiens (Suzuki, 2009).

Influenza Trends

Influenza virus in temperate climates is currently known for being active during the cold and dry

months, and more active in the tropics year round (Lowen, 2007). There are several hypotheses

for influenza being seasonal. Yet, because due to the patterns influenza has in tropical climates it

has been difficult to solidify any specific theory. As shown in Figure 3, the infectivity rates in

the 2008-2009 North American flu season falls within the last weeks of 2008, leading to the

highest infectivity rate in weeks 5,7 and 9 of early 2009 — consistent with seasonal trends in

most temperate climate countries (Lowen, 2007). In contrast, other studies have shown that in

tropical climate countries such as Thailand, and Vietnam have several spikes in influenza that

occur over an annual period of time (Susuki, 2009). In Suzuki’s study researchers examined the

transfer of viral strains from Vietnam to Japan and finally to North America. This trait is not

isolated to the orient it has also been recorded in South America (WHO, 2011)

Insert figure heading here.

Figure 2. Influenza Seasonal Infections By week 2008-2009

In 2009, a new influenza A strain of H1N1 cropped up in Mexico, jumping from pig to human

hosts. This viral strain, unlike previous strains, began to affect America earlier than typical flu

season parameters, beginning in the spring and summer months of that year (Citation). In Figure

4, the global mortality rate is shown, depicting two large waves occurring before the typical

seasons, actively infecting people in North America during the warmer summer months

(Citation). Unlike previous strains that remained dormant during warmer months, this influenza

strain was more virulent and transmittable outside of normal flu season (CDC, 2010). This

increased the rate of overall infections that occurred during 2009-2010. Also if the infection

would have had a higher mortality rate it would be capable of transferring for host to host before

the CDC could come out with a vaccine.

Influenza Mutations

In recent years, Japanese influenza A’s amantidine resistance soared from 7.3% to 90% during

the 2003-2007 timeframe (Suzuki, 2009). Amantadine is an anti-viral medication that acts as a

competitive inhibiter with the viral protein M2 (Wang, 1993). This increased the rate of summer

peaks, Japan similar to America has its influenza season in winter, and however during the

periods from 2001-2007 4 of the 6 summer seasons had influenza peaks (Suzuki, 2009). The M2

protein is vital in the replication of Influenza A, following the endocytosis or entrance of the

virus across the endomembrane the M2 ion channel and is used in the acidification of the viral

capsid (Sakaguchi 1996). Being able to inhibit this process was key to stopping viral

replication. This was due to a change in a single amino-acid on the M2 gene of influenza A strain

H3N2 (Furuse 2009). RNA and DNA have redundant code to avoid viral mutations. A single

amino acid change due to the likely hood of a single amino acid change affecting the significance

of an organism. The US is observing similar changes in an H3N2 strain related to a 1968

pandemic that recently resurfaced (Kilbourne, 2006).This new strain has acquired new genetic

information from an avian influenza strain, antigenic shift which refers to two virus of the same

family swapping RNA to create a new virus, is one another risk influenza A poses(Job,2014).

Similar changes in influenza A H1N1 have been recorded in the H1N1/00 compared to the

H1N1/09 subtypes. Although these subtypes have the same origin they show very different

phenotypes. H1N1/09 has phenotypes that allow for easier transmission as well as increased

resistance to Adamantine and Oseltamivir medication. Adamantine antagonizes the M2 Ion

channel while Oseltamivir competes with the NA enzyme. This forces both world health

organizations and pharmaceutical to find alternative competitive inhibitors. However at the rate

H1N1 changes per year, which is currently 3.6 amino acids per-year (Ji-Rong Yang, 2013), This

task has become more difficult. For instance, it took the CDC a full year to produce the 121

million vaccines for H1N1/09. During this period the CDC was slowed by the rate the virus grew

in chicken egg embryos (CDC, 2010). Even this only is enough vaccines to inoculate 30 percent

of Americans. A new change in the virulence and transmission of another influenza strain could

couple with the rate at which the CDC is capable of produce a vaccine poses a new threat.

Figure 3. Global Deaths from H1N1/09 Influenza pandemic

One of these threats is depicted in Figure 4, above; this depicts the enhanced transmission

even during summer months. Unlike previous influenza strains which are not as active during the

warmer months. New strains of influenza A are demonstrating traits that are placing new stress

on world health orginzations. Influenza A, unlike many other viruses in past pandemics, is

difficult to eradicate. Due to its ability to change its genetic material, and go through anti-genic

drift

(Treanor, 2004). It also is not limited to the transmission of person to person. There are

several cases and previos pandemics , such as in 1918 where the horses were branded the culprit

of spread. Other more recent cases involve the 2004 avian flu and 2009 H1N1 swine flu

outbreak. If a single amino acid change can create a Adamantine, Oseltamivir, or Long Pentraxin

PTX3 resistance. Then it leaves the door open for a multiple amino acid that could lead to a

change that could produce a highly virulent influenza strain (Job, 2014).

Commerce Effects on Disease

Trade, travel, and commerce have played roles in several epidemics. One of the most notable

was the bubonic plague, caused by Yersinia pestis, that arose in 1330 in China (Sean, 2001),

eventually spreading along trade routes to Italy by invading Mongol hordes (Sean 2001). From

there, it travelled all across Europe from 1347-1400 (Austin, 2003). Trade and animals played a

large role in the spread of this disease fleas being transported on rats carried the disease and were

transported on trade ships bit humans and began to transmit the disease (Austin, 2013). In this

case, it is estimated that approximately 75-200 million people in China, Europe, and southern

Russia were killed as a result of the plague (Sean, 2001). It should be noted, however, that during

this same time period, countries with populations whom did not trade with Europe flourished and

their numbers grew (Sean, 2001). This is significant today because there are few countries that

don’t trade with one another (Crafts, 2009). If a highly virulent influenza A strain mutated, it

would become difficult to stop.

Another similar case in which disease was caused by travel followed World War I. In this case,

the disease, commonly known as Spanish Influenza, was believed to be spread by soldiers

returning from the Great War (Film, 2003). Some of the first cases of this influenza A were

recorded in Spain and America, but the virus later traveled all across the world (Film, 2003). The

mortality rate of this virus was approximately 2.5% (Briggs, 1997), and an estimated 20-40

million people died in under a year (Briggs 1997). These numbers may seem unsubstantial when

compared to the total world population, especially when compared to the death toll of the

bubonic plague. However, there are several risk factors that increase the seriousness of

pandemics. The first is the rate at which the virus spreads and kills their hosts (Briggs, 1997).

Unlike the black plague that took almost a century to cross Europe, Asia, and Southern Russia

and kill 75 million people (Briggs,1997), influenza A in 1918 took 1 year to cross the world,

killing at least 20 million people in the process (Briggs, 1997). In comparison the 1918 strain of

influenza killed 20-40 million people in one year compared to 1 year in Europe alone only 10

million people died Secondly, influenza A’s RNA changes rapidly, and it can jump species

(Treanor, 2004). In turn, this leads to anti-genic drift. This is the process of two different

subtypes of viruses that effect two different species combine their RNA to create a new strain.

The assortment of RNA can lead to new phenotypic traits. This leaves the option of a new virus

being translated in either a human or other animal species and then increasing fitness, and

mortality of the host. (Treanor, 2004). This increases the possibility of a new phenotype

surfacing that might increase virulence.

H1N1 2009 Swine Flu

In April 2009, a new strain of influenza was detected in Mexico,and the US (CDC, 2009). Within

a couple months, the virus spread to over 200 countries and territories (CDC, 2009). By June

2009, the WHO raised influenza A H1N1 to pandemic level 6, which refers to a moderate

outbreak of influenza(CDC, 2009). The figure below depicts the mortality rate of influenza A

H1N1 over the period of April 2009 - April 2010 (WHO, 2009). The mortality rate of this new

virus is comparable to previous pandemics, as the speed at which this pathogen spread over a

year’s time was unprecedented. Trade, product shifting business men, and highly active members

in communities in the modern age play a large role in the transmission of various diseases

(Teytelman, 2007), and this case was no different. The data in fig. _ which shows the spread that

occurred in one year, as well as in comparission with previous pandemics such as the black

plague the total distance traveled, the distance traveled and infection rate is much higher during

the 2009 outbreak.

Figure 4. World Wide Mortality rates due to H1N1/09 2009-2010

Figure. 5 Mid-Atlantic Influenza infections(CDC)

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Even though the viral strain H1N1/09 was not as pathogenic as the previous three influenza

pandemics in the 20century, it still possessed other key traits of H1N1/09. As discussed earlier,

influenza in temperate climates infects people in the colder and dryer months. Unlike normal

influenza outbreaks, many cases of H1N1 were recorded in spring and summer month. Figures 5

and 6 both look at the different infection rates of influenza over periods of time. Each is a

different region of the United stated. Fig. 6 depicts the Northwest region while Fig. 5 depicts the

Mid-Atlantic region. In both figures the rate of Influenza type A increased following 2009. This

was due to H1N1/09 the data shown in Figure 4 depicts H1N1/09 and its rapid increase and

overall cause of an influx of influenza in the years 2009-2010. There are two large peaks in the

2009-2010 season on the graph. The new strain was capable of infecting hosts in summer months

which lead to a higher number of infection in 2009-2010. From a week to week basis, Figure 4

shows similar data to figures 1, and 2, but instead views the growth and rapid transmission of

influenza H1N1/09. Like Spanish Influenza, this viral strain managed to become a global

pandemic all in under a year (Briggs, 1997). H1N1/09 similar to the 1918 flu took less than a

year to travel the around the world, much faster than the black plague did in 1347 (CDC, 2009).

If a more virulent, mutated strain of influenza were to arise, it runs the risk of being transferred

quickly across borders (WHO, 2010). Furthermore, subtypes sometimes co-infect a host and,

through exchange of RNA segments, can lead to mutated variants in future subtypes (Treanor,

2004).

Changes in Internet Usage

Commercial business as early as 1995 began to utilize the internet for research and

development forms of communication using an electronic medium to transfer information and

messages (Yates, 1999; Rollor, 2001). New methods of communication opened up new markets

for companies of all sizes. Companies of all size could now communicate internationally with

their markets. This in turn opened the opportunity to market their products around the world even

if they could not afford mass marketing. Previous changes in communication technology have

influenced global trade and International GDP. In one case in 1970 in the first international

transatlantic telephone lines became available. Soon to follow behind in 1971 Amtrak finished

their mainlines. Following these technological changes economies around the world saw an

average growth rate of the GDP per capita 3.96 by 1990, compared to the previous two decades

in which the growth was only 1.96(Rollor, 2001). Technology has opened doors to companies to

reach international markets and thus increase their communication and product transfer with new

customers. Economic growth has continued as technology and innovation in the 21st century has

continued to drive the speed and purchasing of countries. Following the introduction of E-

commerce in 1995 the electronic market began grew steadily. From 2000-2008 the electronic

market grew an average of 10 billion dollars annually. The stability of e-commerce in figure 9

continued even through the 2009 recession. In this graph the change from 2008 to 2009

Figure 7. E-commerce Growth rate

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Of overall sales only dropped 3%. Increasing trade and commerce internationally began

to create new industries and jobs and increase the size of the global market. This provided new

opportunities for influenza A to spread through moving products and hosts. The more required

mediators of trade and products countries desired from the electronic market opened up new

opportunities for influenza A transmission.

Rural Internet Usage

During the same period of time researchers began to notice a large increase in internet

usage in rural areas. From 1998-2000 they recorded an increase of 41% of internet connections

(McIntosh, 2001).

Figure 7. Internet Households

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There was a similar increase of households with internet from 2005-2007. Depicted

in Fig. 7, the amount of households with internet nearly double between this time periods. The

large increase in computers per household increased the availability of the internet for the

average household user. Where the average person from 18-92 years old in the US would spend

40 hours a week on the internet (U.S. Census 2005). Similar numbers were recognized during

2001-2006 in Japan, as numbers of internet users doubled over a small period of time(Nakano,

2009). People are beginning to rely more upon electronic forms of communication in order to

communicate and feel a sense of community. “Thus, the tools of the information revolution

provide a convenient means for the hyper-involved to continue their engagement when they are

physically alone and at any hour of the day” (McIntosh 2009). This in turn has the opportunity to

reduce the amount of necessity for human interactions. However this is in contrary with many

recent studies show that the increase in usage of the internet has made it easier to communicate

with others and increase their personal networks. For example, Reeds law depicts that a social

network with N number of people increase the possibility of creating personal and small groups

to the equivalent of 2 to the power of N .It has allowed for people to become closer and meet,

whereas without internet there is the plausibility they themselves never would have met. It has

merely, as some researchers have found, a new “tool” in our social tool kit (Tyler, 2002). We

rely on it to make our lives more efficient. Instead of decreasing our face to face interactions it

has made it easier to mediate and schedule days. With the result, the increasing usage and

reliance on the internet has provided a new opportunity to meet with people that we may not

have originally had time for. The more things seem to change, the more they really stay the same

E(M)-commerce

E (M)-commerce has played a large role on the impact of how products flow from raw materials

to finished product. In the figure 2(). There are two large inclines that can be observed in e-

commerce. From 2000-2007 and following 2009. Even through the recession of 2009 the global

revenue for electronic commerce remained overall stagnant. Customers continued to purchase

the similar amounts of products using electronic methods, even with the risk of the market. In

case of a global epidemic it begs the question, will people continue to purchase products and

force global business even with the risk of disease transfer. The world’s E commerce has

increased at a rapid rate over the past decade. Even during 2005 as examined in figure 8 at the

risk of avian flu outbreak customers continued to demand products.

Figure. 8 Internationally Shipped Products in Millions of Tons

Risks of E (M)-Commerce

Customers have become accustom to receiving products from international trade, oil,

smartphones, computers etc. Tied with ability for the customer to adjust and purchase products

immediately, is allowing products to be purchased faster. The change in the push/pull

relationships has given customers the feeling of being in charge with personal electronic

coupons, and mobile marketing. The increase in usage of E (M)-commerce has increased the

amount of necessity of international travel and traveling formites that could spread disease

transfer. Influenza is transferred through physical contact either with a host or with a product that

has virual capsids attached to them. In several similar cases such as the 1918 Spanish Flu

researchers account for the rapid transmission of the disease to the heavy amount of soldiers

traveling and returning from World War 1. It was also accounted to the ability of international

trade increasing (Stanford 1997). Another similar case can be examined in the Bubonic plague,

which was spread on rats on cargo ships to human hosts.

Smartphones

Smartphones entered the market in early 2000, around 2003 Blackberries began to alter the

phone market. The need for faster data speeds, diverse applications and internet usage became

customer needs. Mobile phones have given people the freedom to use various form of electronic

communication, including texting, data transfer, while they remain mobile. SMS alone in 2010

was estimated to account for 60% of the revenue collected for data transfer (Mahatanankoon,

2007). In figure 10 the amount of cellular subscribers in the USA in 1999 only 1/3 the

population had a cellphones, in contrast by 2010 nearly everyone in the USA owned some form

of a cellphone. The increased usage and availability of mobile phones has given marketers, and

companies’ new opportunities to sell to their customers. This has changed the necessity of

products, and increased the range from where products can come from. Companies such as

Amazon sell products from Samsung and Sony both companies that are selling products to an

international market. Amazon has recently begun to offer Amazon prime which gives customers

2 day shipping. Customers are constantly demanding and preferring a faster shipping rate. People

show traits of preferring instant gratification. Previous studies have shown that humans offered X

–value money now and an increased Y-value in a year from now, even if it is a substantial rise in

value humans will more likely choose the lower value money now rather than later (Fredrick,

2002). Humans do not show a desire to wait. Smartphones shift speeds to faster and faster speed

in turn humans have a higher demand for faster moving products. Companies such as Amazon,

as mentioned above has pin-pointed this desire and has begun to market products globally at

faster rates. This change places pressure on global traders and suppliers to become faster and

increase quantity of products. Leading to increased marketing, and meetings and necessity of

traveling active humans. This allows for the probability of traveling humans and products to

encounter viral particles. Mobile commerce has allowed the customer to demand products 24/7.

It has increased the market, and the economy. However, it has also created a new window to

influenza capsid particles to encounter uninfected hosts.

Figure 9. Cellular Subscribers

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Analysis

Examine figures 1, 2, 4, 5. There are similar trends. Although the initial reaction to influenza

rates are low from 2000- 2008. In 2009 the avian flu became mobile, crossing from China, to

America, and to the rest of the world. The current demand and speed of shipping will assist in the

spread of a pathogen. Populations have become dependent on products being shipped from

outsourced producers. Reexamine Figure 8 Shipping grew by 2500 million tons of product

annually. Except for the year 2009 during the rescission shipping continues to grow at a rapid

rate. With the growing shipping rates we are also witnessing rapidly mutating sub-types of

influenza A. Figure 6 shows the phenotypes of influenza A H1N1, due to small changes in the

Viral RNA the virus shows traits of being more virulent, having resistance to Adamantine, and

Oseltamivir. It also has demonstrates signs of having enhanced transmission. All of these

changes have been minor. Just examine the few examples this paper looks at we see that the

phenotypes have minor changes in amino acids. In 2000 influenza had little resistance to current

medicine and low transmission and virulence. In contrast in 2009, 2010, etc., we are beginning to

see increased virulence in strains that are human and non-human species. Alongside these new

phenotypes, the change in seasonality of certain virus strains is also a new variable that can

contribute to the future virulence of a new influenza strain. The virus’s ability to constantly

change its receptors and ion channels makes this virus a high contender for a future epidemic

with high mortality rates. With increased shipping rates and demands it will become difficult to

track and predict the movement of an influenza strain with increased virulence and lack of

seasonality. Even with the knowledge of various outbreaks world health organizations have still

commonly struggled to keep up with the quickly changing strains of influenza.

Discussion

Influenza A is a highly volatile virus that has the potential to become more than a seasonal

ailment. Instead, in similar cases such as in 1918 the virus may become virulent enough to have a

high mortality rate. In this modern era of E (M) commerce, and instant gratification with quick

deliveries. E (M)-commerce is no longer a luxury, it has become a necessity to many people in

developed countries. The culmination of using the Internet as a form of E-business to both

increases the range and rate at which products can go poses a growing threat. The rate at which

free agents come into contact with infected products and Hosts will become unmanageable. The

amount of people and products infected formites and hosts will encounter will be far greater than

in previous centuries. It will become difficult for government entities such as the CDC or the

WHO to create plans and quarantine countries and product at a rate that was fast enough to slow

the spread. In cases such as the 2009 epidemic of H1N1 the rate of infection was unavoidable.

Even with all the samples collected by the CDC and other companies it took 1 year for the

vaccine to come out (CDC, 2010). During this period influenza could have already taken on new

RNA phenotypes that would be unpredictable and continue to spread and become more resistant.

influenza unlike many other viruses does not have a stagnant RNA. It is susceptible to changes

and has managed to elude world health organizations for years. Recently new strains have

surfaced such as H6N1, and H7N9 that shows new affinities to attach to salicylic acid receptors

on the lung and esophagus lining. This strain is yet to cross over from its avian origin.

Nevertheless it still poses a new threat to the human species. influenza has shown rates of being

most infectious when a person is asymptomatic. This leads to the belief that even if people take

steps to avoid contact with infected hosts this will not slow the overall spread. E (M)-commerce

are engrained into societal trends. Many developed countries will not realize the threat the

consumer poses during the next outbreak as products shift from country to country. E (M)-

commerce comes with the expectation of speed. Even with human preventative measures the

speed at which an influenza A subtype in the future may pose threat due to the overwhelm speed

and distance reduction E(M)Commerce has provided

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