Effect of Climate Change on Urban Water System Design
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Transcript of Effect of Climate Change on Urban Water System Design
Vermelding onderdeel organisatie
April 13, 2023
1
Effect of Climate Change on Urban Water System Design
Estimates Based on KNMI ’06 Climate Scenarios.
Yanina Romero
April 13, 2023 2
Overview - Question - Method - Results - Conclusion
• Overview - climate change, urban water problems
• Question - climate scenarios, research question
• Methodology - tools, data selection process• Results - precipitation correlations, model
results• Conclusion - statements, further research
April 13, 2023 3
Overview – Question - Method - Results - Conclusion
• CO2 emissions → greenhouse effect → global warming
• Humans are cause – 90% certainty (IPCC report)• Global warming effects irreversible – don’t
make it worse!
• Measures being taken to reduce CO2 emissions
• Climate scenarios –Consistent image of a possible future climate.
Climate Change
April 13, 2023 4
Main Factors that Determine NL Climate
• Coastal location and prevailing westerly wind: sea climate• Westerly wind: mild and wet summers and
winters• Easterly wind: relative cold winters and
warm and dry summers
• Average global temperature• Warm golf stream: approx. +3 °C
Overview – Question - Method - Results - Conclusion
April 13, 2023 5
August 2006Overview – Question - Method - Results - Conclusion
April 13, 2023 6
Overview – Question - Method - Results - Conclusion
Schematic Overview of the Four KNMI’06 Climate Scenarios
April 13, 2023 7
KNMI’06 scenarios: 2050 relative to 1990KNMI’06 scenarios: 2050 relative to 1990
Overview – Question - Method - Results - Conclusion
April 13, 2023 8
• KNMI’06 climate scenarios given on a daily basis
• KNMI/RIONED assumption • Looking at the past to see the future• Research question –
Does the intensity of extreme hourly rainfall change in the same way as that
of daily rainfall?
Overview – Question - Method - Results - Conclusion
April 13, 2023 9
Time duration of data sets
• Available -10-minute, hour, daily• Most relevant 10-minute data, but un-validated• Cannot use 10-minute then compare hour to daily data
Hourl
y
Daily
Overview – Question - Method - Results - Conclusion
April 13, 2023 10
• What climate parameters affect the intensity of extreme precipitation?
• At the same time, need to be linked to climate scenario variables.
• Climate parameters – wind, humidity, pressure, temperature, radiation
• Sea-surface temperature (SST) for coastal cities• Correlations with precipitation – maximum daily
temperature and circulation
Overview – Question - Method - Results - Conclusion
Correlation and Selection of Climate Parameters
April 13, 2023 11
• Climate scenario steering parameter – G-west• ERA-40 database (1957-present)• Make these type of plots to show relations• More scatter plots
Source: G. Lenderink, KNMI
Hourly
Daily
Pre
cip
itati
on
G-west
Overview – Question - Method - Results - Conclusion
April 13, 2023 12
• Regional climate models (RCMs) input for climate scenarios
• Link precipitation to G-west• Compare daily precipitation to hourly
precipitation• Even more scatter plots...
Overview – Question - Method - Results - Conclusion
April 13, 2023 13
• Temperature vs. hourly and daily precipitation are similar• Higher temperatures, higher maximum precipitation – warmer days
Hourly Daily
Overview – Question - Method - Results - Conclusion
April 13, 2023 14
• G-west versus hourly and daily precipitation are similar• Maximum precipitation, lower G-west
Daily
Overview – Question - Method - Results - Conclusion
Hourly
Overview – Question - Method - Results - Conclusion
• Extreme events occur during warmer temperatures (>20 °C)
• Warmer days occur during summer months (MJJAS)• Focus on these months
April 13, 2023 15
April 13, 2023 16
• Focus on extreme events – important for urban water system
• Took annual and seasonal maximums
Overview – Question - Method - Results - Conclusion
April 13, 2023 17
• Annual maximum plots • No relation for temperature versus hourly and daily precipitation• Temperature domain is the same for both
Hourly Daily
Overview – Question - Method - Results - Conclusion
April 13, 2023 18
• Apparent difference between hourly and daily • However, low correlation coefficient for both• Could use more data points • Use other methods?
Hourly Daily
Overview – Question - Method - Results - Conclusion
April 13, 2023 19
Overview – Question - Method - Results - Conclusion
• Try another method to compare• Still hard to get a view of extremes• Try to look at this for one season (MJJAS)• Try taking out 0 rainfall days • Will find ratio between distributions
Daily Hourly
April 13, 2023 20
• Try another method to compare• Still hard to get a view of extremes• Try to look at this for one season (MJJAS)• Try taking out 0 rainfall days • Will find ratio between distributions
Overview – Question - Method - Results - Conclusion
Daily Hourly
Overview – Question - Method - Results - Conclusion
• Find ratio of 99% and 95% daily/hourly
• Used to project ratios for ∆Tmax
April 13, 2023 21
Overview – Question - Method - Results - Conclusion
• Find ratio of 95% and 99% daily/hourly• Use to project ratios for ∆G-west
• Assumption that Tmax and G-west independent
April 13, 2023 22
• Based on projected ∆G-west and ∆Tmax, ratio determined
• Applied to projected daily precipitation values to get maximum hour precipitation
April 13, 2023 23
date history
prec maxhp
19940810 31.3 39.5 34.1
20030610 27 32.9 32.6
20060705 26.7 33 32.7
20020709 27.4 34 31.9
19930518 27.9 32.9 27.9
20050729 59.7 74.9 20
19980611 55.2 67.3 26.4
20040623 43.9 53.5 10.5
20020820 43.8 55.7 25.1
19980914 42.2 52.7 7.1
Overview – Question - Method - Results - Conclusion
2050 W Scenario
Overview – Question - Method - Results - Conclusion
• Based distribution on rainfall distribution of historical date• Depending on historical event, maximum hour precipitation varies
April 13, 2023 24
Overview – Question - Method - Results - Conclusion
• Used projected hourly precipitation results for model of Almere Haven
• Largest effect with extreme hour events (>30 mm)April 13, 2023 25
Overview – Question - Method - Results - Conclusion
• 2050 W for 09-14-1998
• Less effect with over the day distributed event
April 13, 2023 26
Overview – Question - Method - Results - Conclusion
• 2050 W for 08-10-1994
• Large effect for extreme hour event
April 13, 2023 27
April 13, 2023 28
Preliminary Conclusions
• Based on the results of this research, reason to assume different change in hourly precipitation values compared to daily values.
• However, it would be interesting to do continuing research in this.
Overview – Question - Method - Results - Conclusion
Conclusion
• Daily to hour projections made for climate scenarios
• Substantial amount of water on street with precipitation of 30 mm/hour
April 13, 2023 29
Overview – Question - Method - Results - Conclusion
April 13, 2023 30
Overview – Question - Method - Results - Conclusion
• Further research for non-coastal cities – precipitation/G-west
• Project to digitize historical 5-10 minute data• Perhaps same analysis for 10-minute data • Risk analysis of urban water system (Monte Carlo)• Determine return periods of hour projections• Further research for precipitation/climate variable
relations• Continued research on climate change
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