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Transcript of EEKAA BusinessPlanBaltiskWindFarm-KAL Eng
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The European Union’s Tacis Programmefor the Russian Federation
Delegation of the European Commission to Russia
Energy Efficiency at Regional Level inArkhangelsk, Astrakhan and KaliningradRegions
Business Plan Baltisk WindFarm (Kaliningrad Oblast)
Final Report
December 2007
This project is funded by theEuropean Union
This project is implemented by theCOWI consortium
EuropeAid/120746/C/SV/RU
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Delegation of the EuropeanCommission to Russia
EuropeAid/120746/C/SV/RU
Energy Efficiency at RegionalLevel in Arkhangelsk, Astrakhan and KaliningradRegions
Business PlanBaltisk Wind Farm(Kaliningrad Oblast)Final Report
December 2007
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Published December 2007
Copyright © 2007 by EuropeAid, European Commission
Enquiries concerning reproduction should be sent tothe Tacis Information Office,
European Commission, 170 Rue de la Loi, B-1049 Brussels
This report has been prepared by the COWI-CENEf-ICCS/NTUA-Mott MacDonald-SWECO Consortium. The findings, conclusions andinterpretations expressed in this document are those of the Consortium alone and should in no way be taken to reflect the policies or opinionsof the European Commission.
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Business Plan Baltisk (Kaliningrad Oblast) Wind Farm
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Table of content
1. Executive summary .................................................................................................................. 5
2. Existing facilities ....................................................................................................................... 6
3. Present wind power and perspectives for its further development in the region .................... 14
4. Evaluation of wind power potential and technical capacity for project implementation .......... 15
5. Existing tariffs and state regulation......................................................................................... 19
6. Required equipment and selected technology........................................................................ 21
7. Investment plan ...................................................................................................................... 23
8. Production plan....................................................................................................................... 24
9. Environmental and technical safety........................................................................................ 25
10. Financial plan........................................................................................................................ 2710.1. Assumptions, accepted for financial analysis................................................................. 2710.2. Inputs ............................................................................................................................. 2710.3. Estimation of sales proceeds ......................................................................................... 2910.4. Financial sources ........................................................................................................... 3010.5. Cost-effectiveness.......................................................................................................... 30
11. Project stability analysis........................................................................................................ 31
11.1. Break-even level ............................................................................................................ 3111.2. Sensitivity analysis......................................................................................................... 32
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1. Executive summary
Present business plan provide conception and description of new wind power station
construction and operation. Wind power station location is Baltijsk municipality (Kaliningrad
region). Business plan was developed based on business offer of German company
Windkraftservice - und Handel GmbH. The main generative facilities have been selected are
windmills Nordex N90 with the power rating 2300 kWt; wind mill height is 80 m, blade span is
80 m. There are five wind mills will be installed and appropriate infrastructure such as
transformer station, transformer lines, roads and building sites will be constructed. Total wind
power station capacity is 11,5 MWt. Total investments is 12 205 thousand EUR, including
equipment purchasing cost is 11122 thousand EUR, buildings construction cost is 1083
thousand EUR.
Wind power station will be located on the north of Baltijsk municipality on shore of
Primorskaya bay. This location meets all the technical requirements as well as it is possible to
connect to existing electricity distribution system.
Taking into account climate conditions and technical characteristics of selected
equipment annual electricity production will be 31781,9 thousand kWt/h per year.
Cost price of electricity produced by wind power station is 0,591 RUR/ kWt.h at prices of
the year 2007. To pay all the allocated money back in time the selling price should be not less
than 1,38 RUR/ kWt.h (excluding VAT) (local tariff for electricity supply approved by the Tariff
committee for Baltijsk municipality for the year 2007).
Project will be financed from the different sources such as own funds of project initiator,
own funds of the companies which act as project partners at the rate of about 4 069 thousand
EUR (1/3rd of total investments) and credit of foreign bank at the rate of 8 136 thousand EUR
with credit period of 12 years and interest rate is 8%.
Taking into account abovementioned project appears effective and realizable and
secures following parameters:
• Net Present Value (for period -20 years and with interest rate - 8%) – 161,4 million RUR;
• Profit ratio – 41%;
• Simple pay back period – 9,6year;
• Discounted pay back period (discount rate is 8%) – 14,8 year;
• Internal Rate of Return – 12%.
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2. Existing facilities
The main elements of Kaliningrad region power industry are generating company JSC
“Yantarenergo” which deals with electricity generation, transmission and distribution as well as
JSC “Kaliningradskaya TETs-2”. Both of those companies are branches of RAO “US of Russia”
Other electricity sources owned by different companies are equipped with low-power
generating facilities (install capacities are verified from 0,5 up to 5000 kWt; total capacity is 70
thousand kWt) and used as reserved energy sources in a case of emergency, the didn’t have a
great influence upon the total energy balance of region .
Several types of power stations are operated on the territory of Kaliningrad region such
as Heat and Power Stations, small scale Hydro power Stations, renewable energy sourcessuch
as wind power stations.
Total installed capacity of power stations located in Kaliningrad region was 192 MWt in
the end of the year 1999. Towards the end of the year 2005 total installed capacity wasincreased up to 644 MWt due to the first unit of Kaliningrad TETs-2 had been put into operation.
Installed capacity of Kaliningrad power system for year 2000, 2004 and 2005.
HPS HPS Renewables Power plants
PeriodTotal,
MWtабс.
вел.%
абс.
вел.%
абс.
вел.%
абс.
вел.%
2000 193,4 130,3 67,4 1,7 0,9 1,4 0,7 60,0 31,0
2004 197,1 130,3 66,1 1,7 0,9 5,1 2,5 60,0 30,5
2005 643,5 576,7 89,6 1,7 0,3 5,1 0,8 60,0 9,3
2000 год
HPS
67%Hydro PS
0,9%
Renewabl
es
0,7%
Power
plants
31%
2005 годблок -
станции
9%нетрадиц.
0,8%
ГЭС
0,3%
ТЭС
90%
Structure of installed capacity for year 2000 and 2005, ( % of the total)
Source: JSC «Yantarenergo» (http://www.yantene.ru)
Following power stations are owned by JSC «Yantarenergo»: HPS «TETs-1 » in
Kaliningrad, Power station «GRES-2 » in Svetlij municipality, HPS in Gusev municipality, Hydro
Power Station « Pravdinskaya HPS-3 » in Pravdinsk municipality, Hydro Power Station
« Ozerskaya HPS» in Ozerskij municipality, Small scale Hydro Pwer Station in Zaozernij
municipality and Wind Mills Park consisted of 21 wind mill plants in Kulikovo village. Total
installed capacity of above mentioned power stations up to the end of the year 2005 came to
133,5 MWt.
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Most of existing power production facilities owned by JSC “Yantarenergo” are more then
20 years old with low capacity, therefore can not be considered as reliable energy sources for
Kaliningrad region. The biggest power station in the structure of JSC “Yantarenergo” is Power
station «GRES-2 » with installed capacity 114,8 MWt in Svetlij municipality. Необходимо
отметить, что в связи с высокими удельными расходами условного топлива на выработку
электроэнергии конденсационное оборудование ГРЭС-2 в настоящее время
законсервировано. В распоряжении ОАО «Янтарьэнерго» находятся также 3
гидроэлектростанции малой мощности: Правдинская ГЭС мощностью 1,14 МВт, Озерская
ГЭС – 0,5 МВт и Заозерная ГЭС – 0,053 МВт.
Within the period from 1998 till 2004 in cooperation with Danish partners joint
implementation project regarding construction of new Wind Mills Park with the total capacity of
5,1 MW. That was the first pilot project implemented with strong support of RSC UES of Russia,
Kaliningrad administration, Federal energy ministry and Environmental & Energy ministry of
Denmark. Danish Energy Authority and Danish company provided technical support of Wind Mill
Park construction within project implementation period.
Kaliningrad Heat and Power Station TETs-2 is one of the leading power generating
facilities of the regional electricity market. JSC “KaliningradskayaTETs-2” has been established
by RSC “UES of Russia” which owns 87,4% of shares. Remainder has been divided among
JSC “Yantarenergo” (1% of shares) and Russian Federation on behalf of Federal agency on
management of federal property (11,6 % of shares). First unit of TETs-2 inclusive 2 gas
turbines and 1 steam turbine, has been putted into operation in the end of the year 2005. The
total capacity of the station is 450 MW, heat capacity is 342 Gcal/h1. The estimated electricity
production is 2856,2 million kWh per year, heat production is 1661,5 thousand Gcal per year.
There are three more heat and power stations located on the territory of the region and
operated by different companies not dealing with the energy sector (TETs-8, TETs-9 and TETs-
10).
TETs-8 was operated by former pulp and paper factory JSC "Darita" and after its
bankruptcy for repayment of taxes debts had been handed over to Kaliningrad City Hall. There
were two back pressure turbines with generators in 6 МW each installed . However the turbine
and generating equipment is laid up for the moment and the boiler equipment is used with the
limited load.
TETs-10 (installed capacity is 36 MW) is owned by Sovetskij pulp and paper factory
which located in Sovetsk municipality. There are two extraction turbines (ПР-6-35/10/5), one is
back pressure turbine R-12-35/5 and another one is condensing turbine PT-12-35/10/1,2.
Basically the station is used for pulp and paper factory technological needs ЦБЗ, and during the
winter season provide heat produced to the district heating network of Sovetsk municipality.
TETs 9 with installed capacity of 12 MW is owned and operated by JSC “Cepruss”.
Distribution of the electric power in system practically is absent, therefore working capacity of
power station below established. Thermal energy is released{let off} for a heat supply of
Kaliningrad. It produces not so much electricity that is why operating capacity is lower than
installed one. Heat produced is delivered into the district heating network of the city.
1 At present heat produced is used for needs of second unit construction.
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According to estimations made the total amount of the electricity generated by TETs-2 in
the year 2006 was more than 2500 million kWh. The main reason not to operate TETs at full
loading is lack of the gas supplied for the region.
According to official report prepared by JSC “Yantarenergo” the bulk of electricity
(85%) is produced by heat and power production facilities which belong to JSC
“Yantarenergo”. Hydro Power Stations generate 12% of electricity and remaining 3% is
produced by wind mills. Within last 3 years electricity production increased by 33% and
for all that electricity probuced by wind mills was increased in five times.
Electricity generation, million kWt.h
2003 2004 2005
Total, 86,4 81,5 77,5
including:
HPS 69,7 64,2 62,1
GRES-247,3 45,7 42,5
Gusev HPS22,4 18,5 19,6
Hydro Power
Station10,1 11,8 10,1
HydroPS-38,7 9,8 8,4
Mini hydro PS
0,04 0,06 0,03Ozerskaya PS
1,4 1,9 1,7
Wind mills 6,6 5,5 5,2
Structure of electricity produced by JSC
«Yantarenergo» production facilities in 2005
г.
Источник : ОАО « Янтарьэнерго» (http://www.yantene.ru)
Up to the year 2006 there was a deficit of electricity in Kaliningrad region therefore more
than 90% of power is imported from UES of Russia as transit through Lithuania. Within
the period from 2003 till 2005 local electricity production didn’t exceed 3% of the total
electricity demand of the region .
In the table below there are figures on amounts of electricity produced and
amounts of electricity imported for the period 2003-2005.
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Comparison of electricity produced and electricity imported during 2003-2005, mln.kWt.h
2003 Share, % 2004 Share, % 2005 Share, %
Own production 86,4 2,8 81,5 2,5 77,5 2,3
Imported from FOREM 3113,3 3259,7 3325,3
Purchased from P&P factories 3,7 4,5 8,1
Total purchased 3117, 97,2 3264,2 97,5 3333,4 97,7
Источник : ОАО « Янтарьэнерго» (http://www.yantene.ru)
Putting into operation of TETs-2 in 2006 increased amount of electricity produced by
Kaliningrad power facilities up to 50% of the total power demand.
Energy system of Kaliningrad region includes following elements: high-voltage
transmission lines on 330, 110 and 60 kW, transmission grid LEP with capacity 10 and less kW,
3 transformer stations with capacity 330/110 kW and more than 40 transformer stations with
capacity 110 (60)/10 kW (see fig. 1). Extensive transmission grid provides reliable electricity
supply of consumers all over Kaliningrad region. Total extent of transmission lines of the
Kaliningrad region makes 13756 kms. In 1966 the Kaliningrad energy supply system has been
incorporated with a Northwest energy supply system and at present it is owned by UES of
Russia.
Transmission lines of Kaliningrad region (330-110 kWt)
Источник : ОАО» Янтарьэнерго».
Operation of a power supply system of Kaliningrad region is provided due to cross-flow
of electricity from UES of Russia through Lithuania by high-voltage transmission lines with
capacity (330 kW). Actual transmission line capacity is 700 МW, however in separate modes it
is reduced up to 200 МW. By an estimation, keeping existing demand growth rate at the
constant level after the year 2010 all the potentialities to purchase electricity from other regionsof Russia will be completely exhausted. At the same time high rates of economic development
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of region against a background of low installed power per employee of Kaliningrad region
national economy create preconditions for the further growth of a electricity demand.
During last years there is a continuous growth of electricity consumption in all trades,
except for an agricultural production. According to state statistics, the total amount of
the electricity consumed since 2000 has increased for 35 % and in 2005 has made
4,058 billion
kWh
30133220 3256
34283568
4058
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
м л н .
к В т ч
Electricity consumption o Kaliningrad region for the period 2000-2005 гг.
Источник : Федеральная служба госстатистики по Калининградской области.
The main electricity consumer in the total structure of electricity consumption is serves sector
and housing sector. Electricity consumption has increased by 17,7 % in 2004 concerning a
level of 2000. Considering housekeeping electricity consumption per head has increased by12,6
% , in sphere of services - by 23,3 %. Compare federation level specific electricity demand in
Kaliningrad region (1843 kWh/per head.) in 2004 was higher, for instance housekeeping sector
by 24,5 %, services sector by 24,9 %. Such break in parameters, except of continued
electrification of housing sector and services sector, is explained by the feature of separate
electricity consumers statistics..
Electricity demand in housekeeping and services sectors
2000 2004
Parameters Servicessector
housekeeping totalServicessector
housekeeping total
Population,thousandpeople
949 950
Electricityconsumption,mln. kWh
712,2 774,0 1486,2 879,1 872,2 1751,3
Specific
electricityconsumption,kWh/year
750,0 816,0 1566,0 925,0 918,0 1843,0
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At the same time, existing consumption level of electricity consumed by population of
Kaliningrad region is much lower than similar parameters, in the countries of Western and the
Eastern Europe. For instance, in the end of 90th annual specific electricity consumption in
Norway was 22500 kWh/head, in Sweden - 13800 kWh/head., in Germany - 6300 kWh/head,
Bulgaria - 4900 kWh/head., Poland - 3900 kWh/head, in Kaliningrad region this parameter was
1843 kWh/head in 2004. It determines the further growth of electricity consumption, first of all by
housekeeping sector.
Another large electricity consumer in Kaliningrad region is the industry (24,3 % in 2004).
However the further growth of industry electricity consumption the industry are not so
obvious: more than half of consumption falls on timber and paper industry, which future
in region is doubtfully, and only about 30 % falls on fast-growing industries such as
assembly of furnishing and cars, the food-processing industry.
According to forecasts of the European experts (research under TACIS projects in 2001,
2006-2007) reconstruction of industrial sector will change existing proportions in electricity
consumption. So, by TACIS experts it is predicted, that by 2010 industrial sector will become
the largest consumer of Kaliningrad region again. It will consume from 40 up to 50 % of a total
electricity consumption. The share of the population consumption will a little be reduced
(presumably - up to 30 %). Thus, in foreign experts opinion, both specific consumption, and
structure of a electricity consumption in Kaliningrad region will approximate to European
parameters.
Under the forecast contained in Energy strategy of Russia, the electricity consumption of
the Kaliningrad region in a case of high development should make 4,2 billion kWh per year by
the end of the year 2010, thus the annual maximum electricity demand in region will be made
770-850 MW.
According to other forecast made by experts of project institute "Energosetproekt"
(Moscow) the total electricity demand of Kaliningrad region will make 1922 million kWh
by 2010 , and 2225 million kWh by the year 2020 (see fig.).
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Electricity demand forecast for the year 2020
0,114 0,107 0,107 0,100 0,105 0,1570,230
1,530 1,6011,687 1,751
1,790
1,922
2,013
0,270
0,270
0,715 0,6590,659
0,6990,725
0,726
0,679
0,737 0,7610,822
0,8660,966
1,436
1,640
0,0320,029 0,035 0,043 0,040 0,046 0,077 0,100 0,120
0,115
0,337
0,288
0,252
0,1100,0980,0950,0830,079
0,325
0,072
2,225
1,486
0,0350,0140,015
0,0140,013
0,011
0,270
0,680
0,614
1,843
0,683
0,000
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
2000 г. 2001 г. 2002 г. 2003 г. 2004 г. 2005 г. 2010 г. 2015 г. 2020 г.
годы
, млрд. к т.ч
Строительство Произ-ные нужды сел-кого хоз-ваТранспорт Быт и сфера услугСобст-ные и произ-ные нужды эл-ций Потери в сетях АО и РАОПромышленность
3,010
3,260 3,220
5,220
3,428 3,568
3,777
4,840
5,800
Источник : ОАО “ Проектный институт “ Энергосетьпроект”
One of the main problems of consumers electricity supply are technical features of
Kaliningrad region energy system operation. At present the Baltic power system securing
reliable electricity supply of the region operate in parallel with Energy United System of Russia.
At the same time, as soon as Baltic States join to European Union they will disconnect their
power systems from the parallel operation with the Russian one and connect to European
Energy System. Therefore there are to options for Kaliningrad energy supply system: to be
synchronized with European Energy system or to be connected to Russian Energy System by
constructing new transmission lines to receive electricity fro Russia. Both options cannot
provide reliable electricity supply of the region and will result in tariff increase. Besides above-
mentioned options will not solve problem of energy safety securing of Kaliningrad region.
To prevent that it was considered to construct new Heat and Power Station
TETs-2 with installed power capacity 900 MW. In November, 2005 first power unit with
capacity 450 MW has been put into operation. Besides the Federal Goal Development
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program of Kaliningrad region contains the tasks on reconstruction of existing power
stations and increase in their installed capacity, including
- Heat and Power Station TETs-1 reconstruction (operate as heat only boiler)
by installing turbine type Т-12-35 and gas turbine with capacity 23 ;
- GRES-2 reconstruction in Svetlij municipality by replacing of existingequipment (installation of steam-gas unit with gas turbine type ГТ-110 and steam
turbine with capacity 50 MW);
- Reconstruction of Gusev TETs-1 by installing gas turbine unit type ПГУ-20;
- Completion of Pravdinskaya Hydro Power Stations HPS-3 and 4
reconstruction;
- Continuation of Zelenogradskaya wind mills power station construction up the
end the year 2010. There will 16 wind mills be installed with total capacity 3,7 MW.
All these measures realization will allow to increase electricity production in Kaliningrad
region and to cover future demand completely. But in the nearest future TETs-2 will be the
main electricity source.
TETs-2 is a gas fired station at the same time there is a luck of the gas supplied to
Kaliningrad region. To provide the region with the gas corresponding with the region gas
demand it is strictly recommended construction of new gas pipeline and allocation of special
gas limits for Kaliningrad region in GASPROM budget. While these problems remain not solved.
In conditions of increasing deficiency and high prices of fuel and energy
resources, feature of Kaliningrad region territorial location , the important role for region
is got with promotion of renewable energy sources . Unlike other Russian regions
Kaliningrad region has already experienced in wind mills operation and maintenance.
Hydro power is also common in the region due to two hydro power stations are in
operation now he. At the same time capacity of hydro power stations and wind mills
relatively small and do not bring large energy contribution into power supply of the
region..
Kaliningrad region has no any real resource opportunities for full securing of the energy
needs. Insufficiency of own fuel and energy resources puts traditional energy sector of the
region in full dependence on conditions of their deliveries from other regions of Russia through
territories of the foreign countries. Consequence of this is the strong energy dependence of
Kaliningrad region leading to reduction of economy stability functioning and social sphere and
potential threat to national interests of Russia in the region.
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3. Present wind power and perspectives for its further development in
the region
When solving the problem of Kaliningrad region energy supply renewable energy
sources, especially wind power are considered. By present time first steps in this direction are
already made.
According to Energy Efficiency Program of Kaliningrad region approved by the Law
«About the statement of Kaliningrad region Energy Efficiency Program for 2001-2005 »
renewable energy sources including wind power are considered as one of the basic directions
for Fuel and Energy Complex development. Possible wind mills locations, required quantity, and
electricity production for two variants of wind mills capacity such as 250 kW and 600 kW are
determined and technical potential of wind power for places most suitable by an expert
estimation for wind power development is evaluated. The estimated wind power potential is
about 1100 MW.
According to estimation made by Moscow project institute "Energosetproekt" experts the
largest possible scales of wind power development , are considered at the level of 110 MW in
the year 2010 and 220 Mw in the year 2020 accordingly. At the above specified capacities the
energy supply system can accept energy, produced by all wind power stations. The further
increase wind mills installed capacity will require to close down part of wind power stations that
means reduction of electricity production. Calculations on energy supply system stability have
shown an opportunity to accept energy from wind power station with capacity up to 200 MW
without conducting of additional decrement of capacity fluctuations, however increasing of
installed capacity of additional adjustable jet capacity sources up to 100 MW will be necessary.
That will provide stability of energy supply system in a case of short circuits..
The further increase of wind mills capacity is possible only in a case of heat recovering
that means utilization of the heat produced for hot tap water production and for the heating of
settlements and industrial companies (for example, for heating of feeding water used for boiler
stations). In this case wind power station total capacity will rise up to 350 MW. The installation
of automatically adjustable electro boilers with total capacity 150 MW, carrying out in a energy
supply system a role of a loading - regulator is strictly recommended. Thus, wind power station
development can solve the problem of heat supply.
The option to use wind power stations for heat production and heat supply is considered
separately. In this case total wind power stations total capacity can be increased by 2020 up to
1500-1800 MW in the region.
In 2000 within the framework of wind power development practical implementation the
Danish company " SЕАS Energy Service A.S. " with support of the Danish Energy Authorityand Russian Open Society " UES of Russia " has installed 5 wind mills (capacity 1 х 600 kw, 4 х
225 kw), in settlement Kulikovo and in 2002 Kaliningrad engineers installed 16 wind mills (with
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capacity 225 kw) more. Now Kulikovskaya wind power station consist of 21wind mills (Danish
production) with total capacity 5,1 MW.
At present the feasibility study of new off-shore wind mill park (with total capacity 50MW)
is under elaboration. Feasibility study is elaborated by Russian experts such as Russian Open
Society " UES of Russia ", JSC " NIIES " in cooperation with Danish experts Power
management of Denmark, "RAMBOLL"..
4. Evaluation of wind power potential and technical capacity for project
implementation
As a whole wind power technical potential of the region is estimated approximately in
75000 MW, electricity production is 90-120 billion kW.h (considering annual operational hours at
the level of 1200-1600 hours per year). At the same time the wind power technical potential for
the places (locations) most suitable by an expert estimation for wind power development is
determined in 1100 MW.
However to succeed with the project implementation it is necessary to estimate a level of
wind power potential in a concrete place of wind power station supposed location . An exact
estimation of wind power potential is complex enough and labor-intensive task. The most
reliable way of such estimation is carrying out of long experimental measurements directly in
researched area.
Long-term researching (a researched meteorological line in the Kaliningrad area
exceeds 20 years) show, that as a whole for the region no more than 9 % of the total
researching time is calm.
The most important characteristic of researched territory wind power potential is
the winds repeatability parameter in a operating sped range . On fig. 5-8 there is data
on values of this parameter depending on 6 standard gradation of winds: 0-1 km/s; 2-5
km/s; 6-11 km/s; 12-15 km/s; 16-20 km/s; 21 km/s and more, within different seasons of
the year, measured in zones of most active wind activity all over Kaliningrad region.2.
2 По данным, приведенным в публикации: Тупикин С.Н., Орлова Н.С. Ветроэнергетический потенциал
Калининградской области / Известия Русского географического общества. 1998, т. 130, вып. 6, с.84-91.
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
п о в т о р я е м о с т ь
в е
т р а ,
%
0-1 2-5 6-15 16-20 21 и более
диапазон скорости ветра, м/с
Рис. 5. Повторяемость ветров различных скоростей по сезонам.
Пункт наблюдений - Калининград
Зима Весна Лето Осень
6,09,4 11,0
7,0
51,3
63,0 63,0
46,047,3
27,2
25,7
40,9
1,4 0,4 0,3 2,0 0,1 0 0 0,10,0
10,0
20,0
30,0
40,0
50,0
60,0
70,0
п о в т о р я е м
о с т ь
в е т р а ,
%
0-1 2-5 6-15 16-20 21 и более
диапазон скорости ветра, м/с
Рис. 6. Повторяемость ветров различных скоростей по сезонам.
Пункт наблюдений -Балтийск
Зима Весна Лето Осень
0,0
10,0
20,0
30,0
40,0
50,0
60,0
70,0
п о в т о р я е м о с т ь
в е т р а ,
%
0-1 2-5 6-15 16-20 21 и более
диапазон скорости ветра, м/с
Рис. 7. Повторяемость ветров различных скоростей по сезонам.
Пункт наблюдений - Пионерск
Зима Весна Лето Осень
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0,0
10,0
20,0
30,0
40,0
50,0
60,0
70,0
п о в т о р я е м о с т ь в е т р а ,
%
0-1 2-5 6-15 16-20 21 и более
диапазон скорости ветра, м/с
Рис. 8. Повторяемость ветров различных скоростей по сезонам.
Пункт наблюдений - Мамоново
Зима Весна Лето Осень
In a view of majority of wind mills design features, electricity can be produced in a case
of certain interval of wind speed only, making operational range of wind mill. The parameter
describing a degree of wind mill capacity use from season to season called seasonal wind
factor (Кв) can be estimated based on wind repeatability of energy spectrum. The formula for
Кв calculation is:
Кв = Р / Д х 100 %,
where Р - total repeatability of wind operating speeds , Д - number of days for a season.
On fig. 9 there are values of parameter Кв for wind mill with operating range 4-20
km/s. The installations used in the project have wider operating range - 3-25 km/s,
therefore their efficiency will be a little bit higher..
КалининградБалтийск
Пионерск Мамоново
Зима
Весна
Лето
Осень
42
67
61
48
36
52
48
4246
56
5148
47
63
57
51
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Сезонный ветровой
коэффициент, %
Рис. 9. Динамика сезонного ветрового коэффициента
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The level of wind power potential is determined by relief and conditions of locality
protection. That is why, the Baltic shore and gulfs within the whole year differs in higher
wind speeds and large quantity of gale-strength wind. So, according to researches, if
along a narrow coastal strip of Baltic sea mid-annual speed of a wind makes 7-8 km/s,
then in a small remoteness from the sea (about 20 kms) this value is reduced up to 5-6km/s. Thus, the most perspective areas for wind power development are the areas
located in so-called to " a zone of active wind activity » (see fig. 10). Baltijsk municipality
is an example of such an area and can be considered as location for new wind power
station installation..
Рис. 10. wind activity zones of Kaliningrad region.
i. Источник : Орлова Н .С .
Ветроэнергетические ресурсы
Калининградской области и возможности их
рационального использования . Автореф. дис .
…канд. геогр. наук . – Калининград, 1996, с .
10.
From fig. 9 it is obvious, that among 4 places were under researching located in
a zone of active wind activity, the best value of Кв parameter is in Baltiysk where within
the whole year the level of this parameter exceeds 50 % - the threshold level that shows
technical and economic feasibility of wind power use. During the autumn-winter period
when energy supply system is completely loaded, average winds repeatability
parameter within wind mills operating designed in the project, stably exceeds 65 % (for
Baltijsk municipality) . Presence of stable winds of required operating range guarantees
rather stable wind mills operation in Baltiysk during certain period. According to the
long-term supervision fixed by meteorological station Kosa (it is located in 2 kms to the
west of Baltiysk), the average annual speed of a wind in this area is 7,8 km/s that is the
best parameter on the territory of the Kaliningrad region..
1
2 3
1 – zone of active wind activity
(wind power density 600-700 W/m2);
2 – zone of medium wind activity
(wind power density 400-600 W/m2);
3 – zone of low wind activity (wind
power density 200-300 W/m2).
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Thus, taking into account results of wind power analysis and the available
technical solutions and technologies, the most suitable wind power station location is
north part of Baltiysk municipality. Electricity produced will be delivered into the grid by
two existing transmission branch lines (with capacity 60 kW) as soon as station is
connected to Baltijsk energy supply system. Previous researches (conducted by JSC "
Institute " Energosetproekt », in 2004) have determined, that connection new windpower station is not only technically possible, but also will not require any significant
reconstruction of existing grid configuration. In a case of station operates with full load
during a winter the power flows in the grid with capacity 66 kW can change essentially,
down to change of power flows directions in separate transmission lines. However all
parts of he grid remain loaded poorly, power flows between 66 kW transmission lines
and 110 kW transmission lines decrease. Thus, There will be no problem with thermal
stability{of the grid. In a case if transmission line (capacity 110kW) 110 Svetlogorsk -
Pionersk is under the maintenance operating mode of the lines with capacities 66 and
110 kW respectively remains sufficient both considering voltage level, and transmissionlines load. At the same time to compensate reactive power consumed by wind mills'
asynchronous generators it is required to install additional automatically controlled
reactive capacity source for transformer station which located in Yantarnij settlement.
5. Existing tariffs and state regulation
Tariff and billing systems of energy sector, are a subject of state regulation and
state control. There is Federal law from 17.08.1995 №147-ФЗ « About natural
monopolies », which regulate following issues:
- Electricity prices and tariffs;
- Limit electricity price levels (maximum and/or minimum);
- Prices (tariffs) for system safety securing;
- Prices (tariffs) for services of electricity supplier;
- Prices (tariffs) for connection to existing grid;
- Other costs.
Regulation of above mentioned prices (tariffs) is carried out in the course of pricing
basics and prices (tariffs) regulatory framework approved by the Government of the Russian
Federation. State regulation of electricity prices for consumers of Kaliningrad region, is carried
out by Regional Tariff Committee.
Methodology of pricing and procedure of tariffs adjustment and approval for fuel
and energy complex is determined by regulation of Federal Tariff Committee. There are
two models used for prices calculation model «costs plus the proved profit» and so-
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called "cross subsidizing". Though according the governmental regulation from
26.09.1997 № 1231 "cross subsidizing" method should not be used any longer by the
end 2001, but taking into account the social importance of tariffs and payment ability of
population it is still applied for sometime. Result of such methodology application is the
differentiation of electricity tariffs for various consumer groups.
According to the pricing method accepted basis for tariffs regulation and calculation is
the costs i.e. electricity production costs, transportation costs, distribution costs, electricity
market operation costs, maintenance and operation costs. Considering these costs and settled
normative for the companies' profitability, administered electricity tariffs for various categories of
consumers are established.
The Basis for electricity tariffs (prices) calculations is the balance of electricity produced
which is approved by Federal Tariff Committee for each region. The basic components ofaverage electricity tariff in Kaliningrad region are price of electricity purchased and
transportation cost (about 70 % of the tariff). The wholesale market price of electricity purchase
Цopt pays off as the average value of the purchase price established by controlled sector of the
wholesale market (it is estimated by Federal Tariff Committee) and the purchase prices
established by competitive (free) sector of the wholesale market. On the top of that costs for
electricity production (electricity produced by Kaliningrad HPS) are also added..
Considering above mentioned expenses, and also other legal costs of JSC "
Yantarenergo", the Federal Tariffs Committee settles selling electricity price, and the
Government of Kaliningrad region (regional Tariff Department of Kaliningrad
Government) settles the prices for separate categories of consumers of Kaliningrad
region. According to the legislation, these prices should not be lower than average cost
price of electricity production, transmission and distribution for all consumers in the
region.
The tariffs and prices estimation is carried out based on:
- clause 5 of Federal law «About state regulation of electricity and heat tariffs and prices
in Russian Federation»;
- item 25 of “Pricing basics”;
- item 3 of “Regulation rules”;
- item 4 RF Government decree from 30th of May 2000 № 418 «About tariffs and prices
for electricity consumed by population».
The average electricity price settled for energy suppliers operating on the territory of
Kaliningrad region for the year 2007 is 1,02 RUR./kWh, for Baltijsk municipality (MO RF 476th of
the Navy) is 1,38 RUR/kWh.
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Electricity prices for end users vary in a range from 0,8 up to 1,87 RUR/kWh
depending on a category of consumers, voltage ranges and time of day and other conditions. In
2008, according to available forecasts, the level of average tariff will increase by 8-10 %.
The main reasons for electricity tariffs growth are increase in price electricity purchased
from wholesale market, and also the high cost price of electricity, produced by local powerstations. The cost price of electricity produced by power station owned by " Yantarenergo " in
2004 was not less than 1,8 RUR/kWh that was 1,75 times more compare the average price
had been settled by Tariff Committee for the same period. By estimations, in 2005-2006, due to
increase of fuel demand the cost price increased not less than by 30 %.
The certain hopes for reduction of electricity production cost price have been connected
with putting into operation of new TETs-2. However, by the preliminary data received during
pre-production operation of the first unit and taking into account growth of fuel pricesl (natural
gas), the cost price of electricity production has increased from 0,93 RUR/kWh (estimated
value) up to 1,3-1,5 RUR/kWh.
6. Required equipment and selected technology
Wind power installation N90 being basic unit of wind power station, produced by
West-German company « Nordex Borsig Energy GmbН » , is typical wind mill equipped
with stall adjustment, trilobite screw and the asynchronous generator. Application of theasynchronous generator is required according technical conditions of wind mill
operation within conditions of sharp and often changes of wind speed and low
инерционностью rotating parts lag. The operation of wind mill is considered in parallel
mode with power supply system operation, use of the asynchronous generator removes
a problem of " reactive capacity», shifting it on a power supply system. Stall adjustment
meant regulation based on use of blades with different length, provides stabilization of
wind mill capacity in a case of wind speed is more than 12 km/s. In a case of rated wind
speed is 15 km/s wind mill capacity is 2300 kw. In the technical specifications there is
the curve of wind mill efficiency measured for various wind speeds with operating range
(from 3 up to 25 km/s). The supplier of the equipment guarantees maximum deviations
from curve estimated values are not more +/-10 %
In a case of annual wind speed equals to 7,8 km/s, capacity factor will make
0,31, that meets the average standard values of this parameter for effectively working
installations (0,2-0,4). Actual capacity factor for wind mills type W-4200/600 are in
operation since March, 1998 is about 0,2.
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All wind mills' components are submitted by the standard units made by well-
known German producer. Automatic and conntrolled systems secure the continuous
remote control of the basic technical parameters of wind mills operation, such as: rotor
swiftness, generated capacity, temperature of generator windings. All
deviations{rejections} from normal values of these parameters are automatically fixedand transferred to the main control panel that provides an opportunity of fast and
operative reaction to arising supernumerary situations
Development of technical specifications and project elaboration is carried out by the
company « Windkraftservice-und Handelsgesellschaft mbH and Co. Projekt KG » (Gernmany).
All the construction works, civil works and equipment maintenance are the responsibility of
equipment producer « Nordex Borsig Energy GmbН ».
According to draft sale contract, before to start construction work it is required to make a
soil analysis in the area wind power station will be installed, to establish infrastructure such as
roads, platforms for transport parking, storage places to store equipment while constricting,
installation of transmission lines to connect wind power station to existing grid etc.
All the above mentioned activities will be carried out by the Kaliningrad
construction and maintenance companies. Installation of some of metal constructions
could be conducted by Kaliningrad specialized companies that will allow to reduce
construction costs allocated in the budget of the project.
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7. Investment plan
Total investments for construction of wind power station consisted of five wind
mills type N90 is 12 205 thousand EUR. Structure of investments and costs is given in
the table beow.
Investments required
Item Costs, thousand EUR
1. Buildings, total 1 083
1.1. Internal and external grids 219
1.2. Foundation (5 units) 296
1.3. Infrastructure development 122
1.4. Construction works and design work 246
1.5. Reserve for construction 200
2. Equipment , total 11 122
2.1. Wind mills, incl. transportation and maintenance (5 units) 10 910
2.2. Transformer station (5 units) 212
total 12 205
According technical specifications equipment operating period is 25 years. However
according to regional legislation, that determines norms of capital allowance for wind mills,
power electro technical equipment, transmission lines with voltage rate up to 35 kW, hence
average operating period of the wind power stations is 30 years.
For wind power station proper operation and maintenance it is necessary to involve
specially trained and prepared experts - electro mechanics. It is supposed, that for wind
mills maintenance specialized organization having corresponding licenses and
experience of such works conducting will be involved
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8. Production plan
Features of project product (electricity supplied into energy supply system of Kaliningrad
area) determine coincidence in time of electricity production and consumption. That is why the
quantity of product produced and product consumed is equal for each planning period of
investment project.
The initial data for calculation of the production program of the project are the following:
- forecast annual electricity production;
- electricity sale price .
Calculation of the forecast average annual electricity production is carried out based on
data of efficiency curve. Considering average wind speed in the area where wind power station
is located (the north Baltiysk) is about 8 km/s, the average power capacity of wind mill typeN90, will make about 825 kW. That means if 5 wind mills are in operation during8760 hours per
year then the total annual electricity production will be 36128,8 thousand kWh. To be more
precise and taking into account changeable weather conditions the average annual electricity
production will make 31781,9 thousand kWh per year .
During the first year of operation due to some adjustments and technical changes the
annual electricity production will be 21187,9 thousand kWh per year .
The sale price of electricity produced is estimated based on cost price and creditrepayments.
The calculation of the electricity cost price is given in the table below. Calculation
is executed for the first 12 years of wind power station operation..
Calculation of cost price
Parameter Average annual costs
1. Total cost price of electricity sold 18 785 тыс. руб.
including: production costs 2 341 тыс. руб.amortization 16 444 тыс. руб.
2. Electricity production 31781,9 тыс. кВтч
3. Unit cost price 0,591 руб./кВтч
Thus, estimated cost price of electricity produced by wind power station, including
expenses for wind mills operation will make 0,591 RUR /kWh.. For comparison, the estimated
cost price of electricity, produced by Kaliningrad TETs-2,was not less than 1,3 RUR /kWh in
2006 .
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9. Environmental and technical safety
At present there is no experience of long expirience wind power station operation which
consist of wind mills with capacity more than 1 MW , therefore in our country there are no hard
data necessary for an objective evolvation of wind power stations influence on enviroment.
Short term of existing wind power station operation which located in Kulikovo settelment does
not allow to evoluate its influence on the environment.
Experience of wind power stations construction and operation in other countries shows,
that in comparison with traditional types of power stations (heat, hydraulic, nuclear) wind power
is more ecologically clean and doesn't make negative influence on an environment, living
condition and economic activitie of the population.
As major factors of wind power station's influence on an environment are the following:
- Noise, low-frequency sound fluctuations and a radio noise produced by wind
turbines;
- Change of a natural landscape when power station is constructed:
- Influence on migration and living conditions of nesting birds.
In some of the western countries, where wind energy is intensively enough used
(Germany, Netherlands, Denmark), there are some normative determining a marginal noise
level when wind mills is in operation especially for residential areas in the afternoon is 50 dB
and at night is 35 dB. Besides according to the specifications accepted in these countries,
minimally allowable distance of wind mill from apartment houses should be not less than 300
m, from roads - 20-75 m, from transmission lines - 39-52 m.
For wind mill "Nordex" model considered in the project, according to technical
specifications, the maximum level of noise at wind speed 8 km/s on distance of 50 m from a
tower makes of 99,9 dB. But, taking into account big remoteness of wind mills from living zones
the influence of wind mills' noise will be insignificant.
The researches which have been carried out in Netherlands, have shown minimal wind
mills' influence on ornothofauna. For average sizes wind mills the chances to defeat migrating
birds in the afternoon is 3 %, but the major part of birds passing by wind mills at the level much
higher then blades are. On the other hand, it is considered, that for night migrants and day time
migrants in weather with bad visibility wind mills should be less dangerous, than the other high-
altitude buildings created by the human being (a TV and radio towers, transmission lines,
beacons, etc.) due to wind mills' rotating blades create effect of the prevention..
Researches have shown absence of any influence caused by blades rotation or noise
produced on a living condition of meadow birds. Concerning fed and having a rest birdst their
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number within all years of supervision remained enough constant and not corresponded with a
construction of wind power stations.
Results of the analytical and field researches which have been conducted in the USA,
concerning possible influence of wind power on wild plants and animal through change of their
dwelling also have shown, that deviation of the microclimate basic characteristics within stationleeward zone does not exceed size of natural fluctuations.
Thus, according to researches available now, possible negative wind power station
influence on vegetative and fauna is minimal, and consequences of its operation cannot render
harm to the natural environment..
Wind power station construction require certain peace of land. The area in Baltijsk
municipality assigned for wind power station construction is located in nature
conservation zone of Baltic sea shore. The specified features do not suppose other economic
use of the selected area. However construction and operation of wind power station do not
provide negative influence on the natural environment and, at the correct organization of works,
is not connected to infringement of a vegetative and soil cover.
Existing wind power stations create potential danger to health and life of people. The
possible basic threats are the following:
- tearing off of one of wind mills blades which can be thrown away on distance up to
300 m from wind mill tower;
- destruction of wind mill as a result of hurricanes, earthquake influence;
- ignition of the equipment and occurrence of other non-staff situations when wind mill
operate ;
- icing of wind mill tower and blades during the autumn-winter period, that can result to
tearing off of ice splinters;
- threat of operation stuff life when conducting the maintenance of wind mills.
Technical safety during wind power station operation will be provided by establishment
of nature-conservative zone not less than 300 m, strict observance of safety measures and
periodical maintenance of wind mills
wind mill margin of safety, according to the technical specifications is designed for the
maximal speed of a wind of 65 km/s, that not less than on 30-35 % exceeds the speed limits of
a wind at coast of the Kaliningrad region. There are no other natural factors in the region,
capable to result in destruction of wind mill.
As a whole, experience of a wind power station construction and operation in Denmark,
Netherlands, Germany, Sweden, the USA, and other countries shows, that wind mills are one of
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the most friendly environmental and technically safe sources of electricity production,
minimizing negative influence on the natural environment, and people health. Construction of
wind power station consisting of 5wind mills with total capacity 31,8 million kWh will allow, due
to reduction of electricity production at HPS of the region, to reduce emission of oxides of
nitrogen (NOx), oxides of sulfur (SOx), oxide of carbon (СО2), firm particles in an atmosphere.
According to calculations, only annual reduction of СО2 emission will make 28604 tons, that,
according to KIOTO protocol, will allow to Russia to use the right on sale of emission quotas
equal to amount of 143 thousand euro per year.
Use of a wind power from ecology point of view is the most comprehensible
variant of the energy sector development..
10. Financial plan
10.1. Assumptions, accepted for financial analysis
Calculation of the financial plan basic parameters is carried out according to UNIDO
methodology and Methodical recommendations on evaluation of investment projects efficiency.
Planning period for estimated parameters is 20 years. Duration of planning interval is
accepted equal to 1 year.
Calculations of financial plan parameters are executed in real terms, fixed on a level of
the second half-year 2007. As the product of the project is the electricity and it will be sold at
the local electricity market, so the rouble is accepted as basic monetary unit of calculations. In
a case of other units use there is a fixed exchange rate equal to 1 roubles = 0,02857 EUR. This
rate is fixed for the whole period of financial plan estimation.
10.2. Inputs
10.2.1. T AXES
To estimate project tax burden the standard taxation system applied for producers of
industrial goods is used. Therefore, according to the Russian Federation Tax code industrialcompanies pay following taxes:
- The VAT, at a rate of 18 %;
- The profit tax , at a rate of 24 % of the taxable profit;
- The property tax, at a rate of 2,2 % of taxable property cost.
When calculating profit tax and property tax there is a possibility to get tax incentives
given for investors, according to the Law of the Russian Federation from 10.01.2006 №16-ФЗ «
About Special economic zone in Kaliningrad region and about changes in some regulations of
Russian Federation legislation ».
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Besides above mentioned taxes, the companies will annually transfer rent for the area
used at a rate of 1950 euros in the local budget .
Other kinds of taxes and payments in budgets are not taken into account.
10.2.2. Nomenclature product prices
The project provides production of electricity. Electricity planned price is
accepted at a level, of the tariff settled by Regional Tariff Committee of Kaliningrad
region for 2007 for MO RF 476th Power Supply of the Navy located in Baltijsk
municipality at a rate of 1,38 roubles for kWh (excluding the VAT).
10.2.3. Production plan
In production plan the normative discount for incomplete use of wind power station
power capacity (according to technical calculations made, the total wind power station capacity
is 36128,8 thousand kWh per year) at the rate of 12 % is taken into account.
Year
№ Type of the product Unit.
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
1. ElectricityThousand
kWh0,0 21 187,9 31 781,9 31 781,9 31 781,9 31 781,9 31 781,9
The annual wind power station designed capacity is estimated in 31781,9
thousand kWh. The planned production capacity will be reached in 2010.
10.2.4. Operational costs
According the data of German company Windkraftservice-und Handelsgesellschaft mbH,
the main operational costs are the following: maintenance and repair, land rent, property
insurance. There are contingencies reserves in the budget of the project will be used in a case
of additional expenses for station maintenance and operation Part of the electricity produced will
be used for station own needs, which also concerns to indirect costs of the project. Proceeding
from this, calculation of operational costs for the first years of station operation is the following:
Thousand RUR
Budget line 20092010 and
further
Land rent 68 68
Property insurance 1 088 1 088
Maintenance and repair 0 750
Electricity consumed for own needs 57 85
Other operational costs 151 227Total 1 364 2 218
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It is fixed that separate costs will be increased pro rata to volume of electricity produced.
10.2.5. Investment costs
The description of capital investments necessary for project implementation is given in chapter
«Investment plan». According calculations, submitted by German partners, the total amount of
investments is 12205 thousand EUR..
Item Costs, thousand EUR
1. Buildings, total 1 083
1.1. Internal and external grids 219
1.2. Foundation (5 units) 296
1.3. Infrastructure development 122
1.4. Construction works and design work 246
1.5. Reserve for construction 200
2. Equipment , total 11 122
2.1. Wind mills, incl. transportation and maintenance (5 units) 10 910
2.2. Transformer station (5 units) 212
total 12 205
The order and size of assets amortization are accepted in accordance with existing
specifications (« Classification of the fixed assets included in amortization groups » approved by
Government of the Russian Federation from January, 1, 2002 № 1) and in accordance with data
received from German design company. Thus, amortization norms of main power equipment
are accepted at a rate of 4 %, constructions and other production facilities at he rate of 3 %.
For proper estimation of amortization level the "line method" is used.
10.3. Estimation of sales proceeds
According to accepted construction schedule and putting in operation the volume of
electricity production and supply in 2009 will make 21187,9 thousand kWh, and since 2010 will
be increased up to 31781,9 thousand kWh per year. At the forecast prices of electricity supply
the total amount of sales proceeds will be the following:
тыс. руб.
Sales return 2008 2009 2010 and further
Electricity, total 0 34 502 51 754
including:
- sales return (excluding VAT) 0 29 239 43 859
- VAT 0 5 263 7 895
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10.4. Financial sources
There are two options for investments:
- Own funds of the project initiator at a rate of 1/3 from total amount of project
investments (4068,5 thousand EUR);
- The long-term bank loan at a rate of 8136 thousand EUR given for the period of 12
years with the interest rate is 8 % .
Payment of the basic part of debt and interests will be carried out on a flexible way
considering liquidity factor at the level of 1.
On the diagram the schedule of external financing of the project is given.
0317
561 606 654 706 643 694739 796 857
921643
0
81367819
7259
6653
5999
5293
4650
3956
3216
2420
1564
643
0 00
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
т ы с .
е в
р о
Поступление денег от кредита
Погашение основного долга
Задолженность на конец текущего
периода
10.5. Cost-effectiveness
The estimation of investment project cost effectiveness executed with use of a
method of cash flow discounting, at the rate of discounting 8 % and estimation period is
20 years, gave the following results::
• Net Profit Value (NPV) – 161,4 million RUR.;
• Net Profit Value Rate (NPVR) – 41%;
• Pay Back Period (PBP) – 9,6 years;
• Discounting Pay Back Priod (DPBP) – 14,8 years;
• Internal Rate of Return (IRR) – 12% .
The schedule of pay back is given on the diagram below.
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-500 000
-400 000
-300 000
-200 000
-100 000
0
100 000
200 000
" 0 "
2 0 0
8
2 0 0
9
2 0 1
0
2 0 1
1
2 0 1
2
2 0 1
3
2 0 1
4
2 0 1 5
2 0 1
6
2 0 1 7
2 0 1
8
2 0 1
9
2 0 2
0
2 0 2
1
2 0 2
2
2 0 2
3
2 0 2
4
2 0 2 5
2 0 2
6
2 0 2 7
Дисконтированный поток нарастающим итогом
11. Project stability analysis
11.1. Break-even level
The make-out level is given In figure below.
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
и з д
е р ж к и ,
т ы с .
р у б .
0,0
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
0,6
0,7
0,8
0,9
у р о в е н ь б е з у б ы т о ч н о с т и
Условно-постоянные изд ержки Условно-переменные издержки Уровень безубыточности
Costs and make-out level
The project is determined as a stable and can reflect any negative changes of economicconditions. As soon as debt is repaid the make-out level will be reduced from 0,8 up to 0,4-0,5,
considering recommended value is not more than 0,7-0,6.
Thus, the company will be operated without loss in a case of electricity production
reduction up to 25425 thousand kWh per year in the beginning of the project and up to 14302
thousand kWh per year as soon as the debt is repaid completely.
.
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11.2. Sensitivity analysis
In conditions of high uncertainty of the basic economic parameters used when
forecasting of project financial parameters, it is necessary to estimate influence rate of possible
deviations of the initial data from forecast values on final results. To do this the sensitivity
analysis is used. Following parameters has been selected: - electricity supply price level; - level of operational costs; - A level of constant investment expenses for power station construction and
equipping.
Changing of Net Profit Value depending on above listed parameters changing is given
below.
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
70% 80% 90% 100% 110% 120% 130%
Ч Д Д ,
т ы с .
р у б .
Цена реализации Эксплуатационные затраты Инвестиционные затраты
Sensitivity analysis
As can be seen from the diagram the electricity supply price has a greatest influence on
aggregate result of the project. In a case of reduction of the product realization average price
more than by 32 % the project becomes inefficient. Possible deviations in investments and
operational costs have a light influence on financial results of the project.
It is necessary accept the project as stable due to the fact that estimated deviation of
basic parameters much more exceeds their possible deviation. Besides the electricity price
(tariff) is adjusted by the state, and its value is accepted at a level of the bulk buyer – MO RF
“476th Power Supply of the Navy” for 2007. In addition the property insurance is stipulated by
the project conditions, which will allow to minimize the technical risks during the period station
operation..
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Appendices
See Excel-files