EEA/ETC-ACC expert meeting on climate change state and impact indicators European Environment...

EEA/ETC-ACC expert meeting on climate change state and impact indicatorsEuropean Environment Agency, Copenhagen, 22-23 November 2001

The Europe ACACIA Project:

Scope, achievements and relationship tofuture climate change impact research needs

Timothy CarterFinnish Environment Institute

Helsinki, Finland


The Europe ACACIA Project:

Scope, achievements and relationship tofuture climate change impact research needs

1. Overview of ACACIA

2. Possible next steps and the role of indicators

3. Some examples of climate impact indicators

ASSESSMENT OF POTENTIAL EFFECTS AND ADAPTATIONS FOR

CLIMATE CHANGE IN EUROPE

The Europe ACACIA Project

(A Concerted Action towards a comprehensive climate impacts and adaptations assessment for the European Union)

EUROPEAN COMMISSION


THE THREE ACACIA REPORTS

Summary - of policy implications and

recommendations (20 pages)

Full Report(324 pages)

Scenarios of climate change for Europe

(104 pages)

Funded by European Commission (1998-2000), 27 scientific experts covering all the EU

EUROPEAN COMMISSION


ACACIA IMPACT/ADAPTATION SECTORS

• Effects of weather now• Socio-economic and technological scenarios• Climate scenarios• Water• Soils• Ecosystems• Forests• Agriculture• Fisheries• Insurance• Transport, energy and industry• Tourism• Health• Coastal zones• Mountain regions

EUROPEAN COMMISSION


SOME KEY FINDINGS

• The climate of Europe is changing (now)

• We can already see some significant impacts

• Climate futures (and their impact) depend on Europe’s development: we examine this for the first time

• There are major changes projected for occurrence of extreme weather (also examined for the first time)

• Our estimates are derived from the study of 8 GCM simulations (“IPCC-approved”)

EUROPEAN COMMISSION


OBSERVED TRENDS IN EUROPEAN CLIMATE

EUROPEAN COMMISSION


FOUR NON-CLIMATE GLOBAL FUTURES(The “SRES” scenarios)

WorldMarkets/A1

ProvincialEnterprise/ A2

LocalStewardship/B2

GlobalSustainability/B1

globalisation

localisation

Consumerist/individualist

Conservationist/Communitarian

EUROPEAN COMMISSION


WORLD MARKETS

A1

PROVINCIAL ENTERPRISE

A2

GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY

B1

LOCAL STEWARDSHIP

B2

Values Consumerist Individualist Conservationist Conservative

Governance Globalised, weak National, weak Globalised, strong Regional/national, strong

Annual GDP 3 % 1.5 % 2 % 1%

Equity Decline Decline Improvement Mixed

Air quality General deterioration Deterioration Improvement Mixed

Water quality Mixed Deterioration Improvement General improvement

Biodiversity Under pressure Deterioration Stable Improvement

SUMMARY OF EUROPEAN NON-CLIMATE FUTURES

EUROPEAN COMMISSION


GLOBAL TEMPERATURES

EUROPEAN COMMISSION


GLOBAL SEA-LEVEL RISE

EUROPEAN COMMISSION


PROBABILITY OF COLD WINTER (1 YEAR IN 10 TODAY)

ACACIA A2-high, Temperature Extremes

2020 2080

EUROPEAN COMMISSION


PROBABILITY OF A HOT SUMMER (1 YEAR IN 10 TODAY)

ACACIA A2-high, Temperature Extremes

2020 2080

EUROPEAN COMMISSION


CHANGES IN EXTREME EVENTS

B1-low B2-mid A1-mid A2-highCold-relatedCold winters MARKED DECREASEFrosts Decreasing frequency Freeze/thawcycles

Increase in Scandinavia; decrease elsewhere

Avalanches Increasing risk Ice storms Possible increase, but no firm evidence

Heat-relatedHot summers MARKED INCREASEHeatwaves Increasing severity

Synoptic FlowBlocking episodes Possible decrease, but no firm evidence

Moisture-relatedDrought Increased risk, especially in southern Europe Intenseprecipitation

Possible increase

Hail Possible increase, but no firm evidenceFog Unknown

Storm-relatedGales Northern Europe increase, Southern Europe uncertainTropical cyclones Possible increase in intensity, but inconclusive evidenceTornados UnknownWind shear UnknownStorm surges Possible increaseLightning Possible increase

EUROPEAN COMMISSION


WATER

• Increased annual streamflow in northern Europe, and a decrease in the south

• Increased peak flows and flood risk due to heavy rainfall in northern and central Europe and Alps; decrease in Mediterranean region

• Increase in the risk of summer drought in Europe, particularly in the south (water reliability and quality is reduced)

EUROPEAN COMMISSION


CHANGE IN ANNUAL RUNOFF IN THE 2050s

EUROPEAN COMMISSION


ECOSYSTEMS/FORESTRY

• Northward displacement of boreal forests into Tundra; and broadleaved into boreal

• Northern forests already showing +10% productivity (+70% by 2080s)

• Fire disturbances more frequent and severe in the Mediterranean region (increased erosion and desertification)

EUROPEAN COMMISSION


AGRICULTURE

• Thermal growing season has lengthened by about 10 days since the 1960s in parts of northern Europe

• A northward expansion of all crop zones (100 - 150 km/°C)

• More drought and heat stress in the Mediterranean region

• Northward shift in pest distribution and increased number of reproductive cycles

EUROPEAN COMMISSION


MOUNTAINS

• Upward migration of plant species and glacier retreat, is occurring now

• 50 – 90% of alpine glaciers could disappear by the end of the 21st century

• Warming = upward shift in tree-lines and vegetation belts (150m per ºC; up to 70m per decade)

• Species extinction on mountain-tops

• Increased fire hazard in southern populated mountain regions (e.g. Italy, Spain, Turkey, Greece)

EUROPEAN COMMISSION


WETLAND LOSS BY THE 2050s

Saltmash

Intertidal ecosystems

EUROPEAN COMMISSION


FINANCIAL SECTOR/INSURANCE

• Insured losses due to weather-related disasters worldwide have increased 13-fold since the 1950s

• Future increased claims due to severe weather may endanger regional insurers

EUROPEAN COMMISSION


TRANSPORT, ENERGY AND INDUSTRY

• Positive effects in N: reduction in the number of days with frost and lying snow

• An increase in the frequency of hot dry summers could disrupt some industrial processes using large quantities of water (e.g. river-based power stations in mid and S. Europe)

• Reduced space heating requirements in N. but increased space cooling requirements in S.

EUROPEAN COMMISSION


RECREATION AND TOURISM

• Excessive heat in traditional Mediterranean resorts

• Reduced reliability of snow cover in Alps

EUROPEAN COMMISSION


HUMAN HEALTH

• Increased thermal stress and air pollution episodes = increased mortality and morbidity in the elderly (especially in S.)

EUROPEAN COMMISSION


GENERAL CONCLUSIONS

In general:

• There will be a south-to-north shift of climatic resources across Europe

• The negative impacts will be greatest in more “marginal” regions in Europe (south and east), and less in “core” regions (metropolitan northwest)

• Climate change will aggravate current environmental problems

• Adapting to climate change should be factored into policies of environmental management and economic development in Europe

EUROPEAN COMMISSION


2. Possible next steps and the role of indicators


ACHIEVEMENTS OF ACACIA

ACACIA answered many "What if?" questions

ACACIA also touched on some "What then?" questions

ACACIA did not address the key UNFCCC question: "What is dangerous climate change?"

though……….

it provides the foundation for new assessments that attempt this


POSSIBLE NEXT STEPS AFTER ACACIA

2. Identify "critical" levels of impact (stakeholders)

3. Evaluate thresholds of climate change leading to critical impacts

4. Analyse adaptation mechanisms for enhancing climate tolerance (stakeholders)

5. Evaluate new impact thresholds following adaptation

6. Analyse magnitude, timing and location of exceedance of impact thresholds with and without adaptation and for both unmitigated and mitigated climate change

1. Assess sensitivity to climate change using impact models, indices (e.g. ACACIA)


Probability of obtaining poor quality cauliflower curds in the UK under unmitigated future climate and different mitigation scenarios (HadCM2)

Threshold: 15-day average mean temperature (from day 190) > 18ºC

Source: Parry et al., 2001

(unmitigated)

Adaptation?


POSSIBLE NEXT STEPS AFTER ACACIA

Proposed ENCACIA project seeks to address these issues for European agriculture, forestry, biodiversity, water resources and coasts

2. Identify "critical" levels of impact (stakeholders have important role)

3. Evaluate thresholds of climate change leading to critical impacts

4. Analyse adaptation mechanisms for enhancing climate tolerance (stakeholders)

5. Evaluate new impact thresholds

6. Analyse magnitude, timing and location of exceedance of impact thresholds with and without adaptation and for both unmitigated and mitigated climate change7. Key question for stakeholders: What combination of adaptation and mitigation would best enable Europe to avoid significant impacts of climate change?

1. Assess sensitivity to climate change using impact models, indices (e.g. ACACIA)


3. Some examples of climate impact indicators


PRUDENCE (Prediction of regional scenarios and uncertainties for defining

European climate change risks and effects)

c) to interpret these results in relation to European policies for adapting to or mitigating climate change.

Objectives:

a) to address and reduce deficiencies in projections of future regional climate change;

b) to quantify uncertainties in predictions of future climate and its impacts, using an array of climate models and impact models and expert judgement on their performance;

2001-2004


PRUDENCE

INDICES OF RESOURCE POTENTIAL

Resolution of climate dataIndex Description (and impact sector) Temporal SpatialResource potentialThermal growingseason

Temperatures above 5C(agriculture, natural ecosystems)

Monthly/daily

Grid

Accumulatedtemperature

Growing degree-day requirementsfor crops (agriculture)

Monthly Grid

Heating degree-days (energy) Monthly GridCooling degree-days (energy) Monthly Grid

Potential biomass Lieth model (ecosystems) Annual GridPotential vegetation Holdridge life zones (natural

vegetation)Monthly Grid

Wind potential Wind speed (energy) Monthly Grid/siteBaltic sea ice Annual maximum extent of sea ice

cover based on temperature(transport, marine life)

Monthly Grid


PRUDENCE

INDICES OF RESOURCE RISK

Resolution of climate dataIndex Description (and impact sector) Temporal SpatialResource riskHWDI (Heat waveduration index)

Longest period >5 consecutivedays with Tmax >5C above the1961-90 daily Tmax normal (health)

Daily Grid/site

CDD Maximum number of consecutivedry days (Rday < 1mm)(agriculture)

Daily Grid/site

R5D Maximum 5-day precipitation total(water resources)

Daily Grid site

FD (frost days) Total number of frost days(Tmin<0C) (ecosystems, transport)

Daily Grid/site

Frost-free season Dates of first and last frost(ecosystems, transport)

Daily Grid/site

Snow season Total number of days with snowdepth < 20 cm (recreation/tourism)

Daily Grid/site


PRUDENCE: BALTIC SEA ICE

Annual maximum extent of ice cover according to HadCM2 (GG and GS) and ECHAM4 (GS) simulations.

Source: Venäläinen et al. (1999)0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

400000

1720

1740

1760

1780

1700

1820

1840

1860

1880

1800

1920

1940

1960

1980

2000

2020

2040

2060

2080

2100

Ma

xim

um

ice

ex

ten

t [k

m2 ]

OBSERVED SCENARIOSExtremely severe

Severe

Average

Mild

Extremelymild

ECHAM4 GS

HadCM2 GG

HadCM2 GS

Seinä and Palosuo (1996)

(Tinz 1996)

EEA/ETC-ACC expert meeting on climate change state and impact indicators European Environment...

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