Education & Economic Development

H A R R Y A N T H O N Y P A T R I N O S@hpatrinos

Jakarta, IndonesiaMarch 2017

Aztec Education in Mexico

Ancient Athens

Gwageo Temple of Literature

Singapore560

550

540

530

520

510

500

490

Hongkong SAR,China

Japan Macao SAR,China

Estonia

Chinese Taipei

Canada FinlandKorea

China

Educational Achievement Pisa 2015: Top 10 performers (averaged scores across science, math reading)

Source: Pisa 2016

Growing Market for Education

6.35.64.52

Education Expenditure ($ trillions)

Source: GSV Advisors 2012

1999 2013 2016 2018

Returns to Investment in Education Low Income Countries (%)

Source: Psacharopoulos, Montenegro, Patrinos 2016

PRIVATE

SOCIAL

25

20

15

10

5

0 Primary Secondary Tertiary

Private Returns to Schooling

Source: Montenegro and Patrinos 2014

20

16

12

8

4

0Primary Secondary University

Returns Higher for Women

20

16

12

8

4

0

11.59.6Men

Women

Source: Montenegro and Patrinos 2014

Benefit-Cost Ratios are High

Source: Education Commission 2016

L O W – I N C O M E U P P E R – M I D D L E I N C O M E

L O W E R – M I D D L E I N C O M E

Earnings + Health Benefits

Earnings + Health Benefits Earnings

+ Health Benefits

Earnings Benefits

Earnings Benefits Earnings

Benefits

Returns to Alternative Investments (%)

Source: Psacharopoulos, Montenegro, Patrinos 2016

16

14

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

Education

Long term bonds

Bank deposits Stocks

Housing

Invest in People: Invest in the Future

CHILD WITH STUNTED BRAIN DEVELOPMENT

HEALTHY, CARED FOR CHILD

Source: World Bank 2017

Economic Growth

Education

Source: Glaeser 2009

The Race Between Education & Technology

Source: Montenegro and Patrinos 2014

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Higher Education Enrollment Rate

Rate of Return to Higher Education

Source: WEF; Oxford University

47% of Total US Employment at Risk

jobs with the largest total declines

1 Bookkeeping

2 Cooks

3 Postal service mail carriers

4 Executive secretaries

5 Farmworkers

6 Sewing machine operators

7 Tellers

8 Postal service mail sorters…

9 Cutting, punching, machine setters

10 Switchboard operators

11 Molding

12 Computer programmers

12

However

million out of school

million in school but can’t read

youth in developing countries unable to read

1242501in4

However

Source: UNESCO

In most countries, education systems are not providing workers with the skills necessary to compete in today’s job markets

Rising Private Enrolment

Source: EdStats

13.0

12.5

12.0

11.5

11.0

10.5

10.0

9.5

9.0

8.5

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

WORLD

Reforms

ATTRACTING GOOD

TEACHERS

AUTONOMY TO PROVIDERS

ASSESSMENT OF STUDENTS

& SCHOOLS

ATTENTION TO EARLY

CHILDHOOD DEVELOPMENT

(ECD)

ACCOUNTABILITY OF THE SYSTEM

AWARENESS OF CULTURE

Examples from Korea

01 02 03

FUNDAMENTALS:

Basic education firstEMPLOYER-LED TRAINING IN KOREA:

Training at secondary & post-secondary, based on skill needs, employer-led

ENGAGING THE PRIVATE SECTOR WITH PUBLIC FUNDING:

Secondary education

Higher education

Get the Basics Right

Source: Education Commission 2016

13.0

12.5

12.0

11.5

11.0

10.5

10.0

9.5

9.0

8.5

Attracting good teachers

1

1.1 Poland

Impact of 1999 Education Reform

1.1 Poland

Change in Structure of System

Old

grade age grade0 6 0I 7 III 8 IIIII 9 IIIIV 10 IVV 11 VVI 12 VIVII 13 IVIII 14 II

I 15 IIIII 16 IIII 17 IIIV 18 IIIV 19 IV

Basic vocational schools

Comprehensive lower secondary schools

Profiled general

secondary

Zero class (primary schools or kindergartens)

Comprehensive primary schools

General secondary

schools

Secondary vocational schools

Zero class (primary schools or kindergartens)

Comprehensive primary schools

General secondary

schools

Secondary vocational schools

Basic vocational schools

Matura MaturaMatura Matura Matura

New

1.1 Poland

Reform Timeline

PISA 2006 cohort

Pisa & the reform cohorts

PISA 2003 cohort

PISA 2002 cohort

Old System New System

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

515

510

505

500

495

490

485

480

475

470

465

460

OECD Average

2000 2003 2006

PISA mean score

1.1 Poland

Impressive Gains

Source: Jakubowski et al (2010,2016)

Assessment of students & schools

2

Vietnamese

Mathematics

Non-cognitive skills

IMPACT OF V IETNAM ESCUELA NUEVA AVERAGE EFFECT S IZE

0.15910.18120.4121

2.1 Vietnam

Escuela Nueva Impact Evaluation — Strong effect on achievement

Source: Source: World Bank (2016, 2017)

2.1 Vietnam

Increase the Productivity of Schooling

Causal effect of a year of schooling

Source: Singh 2015

Vietnam:

0.78 SD

Compare to no more than

0.4 SD

in Other Countries

2.1 Vietnam

Bucking the Income Trend

Source: World Bank 2017

Accountability of the system

3

3.1 Pakistan

Foundation Assisted schools

Source: Barrera & Raju 2015; Barrera & Ganimian 2016; World Bank 2016

Public financing and private provision to reach poor households

Results-oriented approach to raise educational outcomes

3.1 Pakistan

Low-Cost Private Schooling in Rural Sindh

Source: Barrera et al 2013; World Bank 2017

Leverage private sector to start schools

Large increases in overall enrollment (boys & girls)

Impact on test scores (math and language): 0.67 SD

Autonomy to providers

4

4.1 Mexico

Empowering Parents to Improve Education

Source: Gertler, Patrinos, Rodriguez 2012; Gertler, Patrinos, Rubio 2012

School based management program

Limited autonomy to parents, schools

Large effects on participation and learning

4.1 Mexico

Source: Gertler et al 2012

1,050

1,000

950

900

850

800

2007 20092008 2010

Training control

Pure control

Total Score (Spanish & Math)

Attention to early childhood development (ECD) & early reading

5

5.1 Papua New Guinea

Scale up Early Reading Cost-effective interventions improve reading rapidly

Source: World Bank 2015

Average

Familiar word reading

Letter sound knowledge

initial sound identification %

READING BOOSTER PROGRAMME SHOWED STRONG IMPROVEMENT IN READING ABIL IT IESaverage affect sizes on Early Grade Reading Assessment sub–tests of the reading

0.510.040.580.91

5.2 The Gambia

In-service training focusing on reading

Source: World Bank (2013, 2016)

CORRECT LETTER READ PER MINUTE

CORRECT WORDS READ PER MINUTE

ORAL READING FLUENCY

READING COMPRESHENSION%

READING PROGRESS S INCE 2007 IN THE GAMBIA (GRADE 1 -3 AVERAGE)

100 20

2007

2011

2016

30 40 50

Awareness of culture

6

6.1 Guatemala

Scale up Early ReadingCost-effective interventions improve reading rapidly

Source: World Bank, 2016

Bilingual students receive higher scores in all subjects, including Spanish

Shift to bilingual schooling would result in considerable cost savings

6.1 “Fix Higher Education Finance”

The Mick Jagger Effect

H A R R Y A N T H O N Y P A T R I N O SEducation, World Bank@hpatrinos