EDUCATED BLACKJACK...take the offer. And if the casinos are well organized, clean, fun, and fair –...

EDUCATED BLACKJACK

Uncle Billy’s Secret

Francis E. McIntire

Copyright © 2017 Francis E. McIntire

All rights reserved.

ISBN: 1544068670 ISBN-13: 978-1544068671

Volume 2.

2nd edition.

DEDICATION

To the Gambler

We salute the risk taker, And the martini maker,

The dealer and croupier too, The pit boss and the stop loss, And the Super Bowl coin toss,

And the stock tip that proves to be true.

But Blackjack’s our passion, In the Vegas-rules fashion,

Single-deck if the house will permit, Double down, split pairs, With payments in arrears,

To prepare for this largest of bets, Our motives are noble, As we sit at the table,

With the goal to reduce long-term debts, And to finance the children,

With higher education, And lifestyle - for our four-legged pets.

Francis E. McIntire

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data McIntire, Francis E. Educated Blackjack/Francis E. McIntire, Jr. – 2nd ed..

Other Works by Francis E. McIntire on Amazon and Kindle

Educated Blackjack, 1977 1st ed. (Collector’s Edition) Educated Blackjack, 1980 Red Flag deployment print

Educated Blackjack, 2nd ed. with novella; 1st ed. Accelerated Revenue, series

Amazing Leaders, series Anarchist, Vols. 1 – 12

Cybersecurity, series Free Church, series

Full Ride – Service Academy Scholarships Infinite, Vols. 1 – 8

Mechanics of Wealth Military Installation Excellence, Vol. 1 - 6

Monty Post, series Synergy Worldwide, series

Technology Integration, series The Rosie Network, series

The Shape of Business, series Winning, series

Search Amazon.com ‘Francis E McIntire’ Search Kindle for ‘Francis McIntire’; contact Frank at

the Alaska Native Writers Guild and Native Alaska Artists Guild at

[email protected] (719) 651-7746

This is a work of fiction. The geographic landmarks and historical dates are real. All characters appearing in this work are fictitious. Any resemblance to real persons, living or dead is purely coincidental.

CONTENTS

Acknowledgments i

Introduction ii

Glossary iv

1 The Game 1

2 Accounting 8

3 The House 35

4 The Player 58

5 The Conference 168

6 The Envelope 182

i

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

To the Gambler with the style, the cars, and the cash who sets the standard for excellence at the blackjack table. To the little kid that set up a casino in his room on a rainy day for his little brothers. There is no doubt that the brothers learned more that day – particularly about the house advantage. And to the first, second, and third-base players that play by the book, place the right bets, and coach the young rookies along the way.

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PROLOGUE

Gambling has existed as long as women and men have owned possessions and were willing to risk what they have for something more in return. Legends abound of the car, boat, chateau, or island that changed hands on the turn of a card, a roll of the dice, or the drop of the steel marble.

On the surface it would appear that the idea of gambling is something quite businesslike. Investing one hundred ducats to reap a reward of thousands in return. Fireside chats, books, and films have documented and glamorized the leading character that quickly and confidently placed the winning bet at the chemin de fer table and ordered the martini ‘shaken, not stirred’.

As a young man, I witnessed a sharp dressed

husband and wife working as a team to reconstruct the skyline of Manhattan in casino chips on a roulette table in Las Vegas. The admiring mob erupted in communal celebration as the number twenty hit three times in less than ten minutes. The number twenty was covered by a stack of chips that looked like the Empire State Building. Many other numbers hit in the center of the table, where the chips were stacked so deeply that the casino staff had to work as a team to determine the value of the next payout. At the appropriate time, the husband ordered his first

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shot of whiskey to fortify him for the next order of business – shoveling chips into empty racks that his wife would begin to ferry to the cashier’s cage. Her role was complex and professional. The first of many trips to the cage involved her counting and arranging the chips by value in the rack, calling for an armed security guard to escort her, and redeeming the markers that were held in security behind the cage. She returned with the markers torn in half, tipped the security guard handsomely, and prepared for the next trip to the cage. The security guard was now her constant companion. As the process continued, it was clear to me and also clear to the hundreds now straining to catch a glimpse of the man, the woman, and the mountain of chips on the table – that when you’re hot, you’re hot. As the winnings continued to pile up in front of the man, another shot of whiskey arrived, and his wife embarked on another run to the cage – the security guard in tow. The markers had been redeemed on the first run. The remaining trips were pure profit and had to be completed quickly, as quickly as the newly won chips were piling up. Then it happened. The run was over as soon as the obscure and uncovered number hit. Not sure if it was a zero or a double zero, a thirty-six or a one, or some other uncharted spot on the map. The man and the woman were gone now, headed to the cage together this time – the final trip for now at least. The audience stood in amazement

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and disbelief for about ten minutes reliving the three hits on the number twenty, and all the other numbers that required so many trips to the cage. A few meager bets were placed. Each spectator felt that somehow their interest and involvement had made a difference. They would not have missed this for the world. Then the crowd disbanded into the Las Vegas sunset, with the memory of what they had seen etched permanently in their psyches.

When will this happen to you? One thing is

for sure - the man and the woman knew what they were doing. And you can too. The house knows that gaming is big business. And you do too. Your goal is not to wish and hope that you will find yourself in the center of a crowd of admiring onlookers. Rather, your goal is to be fully educated so that when the stars align, you are ready and know exactly what to do and how to do it. How to be an educated technical player – splitting aces and eights, and how to use house money to take down the house. Bon chance – my fellow blackjack players. This book is for you.


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GLOSSARY OF TERMS

Blackjack – the card game named after the top score of an ace and a card valued at ten points. To get a Blackjack. Bust – to draw cards totaling 22 points or more. To lose. Double down – to double the original bet (house rules). Hard hand – a score that cannot be reduced. All aces are counted as one point. Hit – to take or request another card. Hit me. House rules – rules of the game (allowed by the casino). Insurance – an optional bet that players may make if the dealer gets an ace (that is showing) with his original hand. Push – to ‘tie’ the dealer’s score. To keep your wager.

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Soft hand – a score that can be reduced. At least one ace that is counted as eleven points and can be reduced to count as one point now or later. Split pairs – make two hands from one hand (same cards). Stand pat – a decision to keep your current cards and take no more cards. To stop taking more cards. Twenty-one – or 21. The same game, named after the top score of twenty-one points. Vingt-et-Un – the original French name for the game of blackjack. The game originated in France in the year 1700.

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1 THE GAME

THE GAME of Blackjack is a favorite of strategy players. Women and men have gambled on virtually every event that includes an outcome that is uncertain and is based on luck or chance. Most consider gambling or gaming an activity that links to specific events that introduce uncertainty. This may be the speed of a horse, the value assigned to playing cards, the number of spots on the dice, or their favorite number on the roulette wheel.

In new or century-old casinos, the owners and investors have chosen to offer games of chance that their customers seem to like more than others. We are all familiar with craps, roulette, poker, slots, and blackjack. Few take the time to consider why these games are universally known

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and loved. But at the same time, we all know intuitively that if we walk into a casino in France, Spain, or Macau; or a casino on the Mississippi River or steaming across the Pacific Ocean – we can probably find a blackjack table to sit down at to ply our trade craft. And, feel right at home at the same time.

Casino managers know that if they offer the average man or woman an opportunity to go one-vs-one with the house, and a fairly even chance of breaking even or coming out ahead, many will take the offer. And if the casinos are well organized, clean, fun, and fair – the customers will keep coming back.

Now, imagine a casino full of well dressed

people willing to take their shot against the house – with full realization that they have a close-to-even chance of doubling their money on a single bet. No secret that the quietest, soberest, and most pensive gamblers are at the blackjack table. The strategy players. It is safe to say that these strategy players are there for business. You will find amateurs sitting to the left and right on occasion, sometimes cracking jokes or talking with the dealer.

The serious blackjack player is not concerned


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with the social aspects of the casino or table. The true blackjack player is only concerned with winning a game that has discrete boundaries and rules. The serious ‘player’ is not really playing at all. They are here to ply their skill sets - not for fun, entertainment, or pastime. The serious ones are practicing educated blackjack. From this point forward, the game takes on the nature of a business or investment. So we begin.

Approach blackjack with the attitude that you are taking cash investment and putting the money to work for you as you learn the trade craft. Do this with the full understanding that you are going to put learned skills to work for you – and you will get better with time.

Understand that in order to perform your best; you must start each session with all the factors that you control on your side. These include a clear head, full stomach, plenty of rest, and most importantly a stake that is sufficient to weather the ups and downs and not required for another commitment (like the mortgage payment). To apply your knowledge correctly, you will be required to act in a sober manner, without hesitation, and completely indifferent to the outcome of any individual bet. Just think about it, the dealer does not ‘freak out’ if you get a

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‘blackjack’ or if he busts. Now, we have all seen the occasional pit boss kick the occasional dealer under the table for busting, but this is rare. For the most part, the house understands that in the long run all players lose for very predictable reasons. And the house knows that system players lose systematically, for the same reasons that we will discuss.

Now that you are completely prepared to go to work with your investment capital, let’s analyze the situation and develop a battle plan.

Blackjack begins when the dealer shuffles the

deck, you place your bet, and the dealer presents you and himself with two cards. The dealer’s bottom card is invisible to you. The dealer’s top card is visible to you, and will become a critical data point in your investment decision-making. You can see both of your cards and have two additional data points. Some casinos allow you to pick up your cards – with one hand - and keep the values hidden from others. Other casinos deal all player cards ‘face up’ with the restriction that you cannot touch your cards. Thus far, you have controlled your preparation for the game, the size of your bet, and you have three data points (the dealers top card value, and the value of both of


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your cards). It’s ‘pucker time’ time now. Both you and the

dealer are silently calculating the value of your hand. The dealer knows the value of his hand, but you can see the dealer’s top card. Your bet has been placed already and cannot be withdrawn (with the exception of the ‘surrender’ rules which some casinos allow in certain circumstances). In business or investment lingo, your bet is a ‘sunk cost’ and therefore has no bearing on the decision to ask for more cards or to ‘stand pat’.

Everyone knows that you want cards that will give you a point total closest to twenty-one, without going over. The dealer knows this too. And now, with limited knowledge about the dealer’s hand, you are at a disadvantage – you must go first. This is the first juncture in the game where you are at a disadvantage. You must go first, and if you ‘bust’ by going over twenty-one points, you lose your bet (even if the dealer busts later with other players at the table).

With this knowledge, you make your decision to stand pat, or ask for one or more cards. Then you stand pat or bust. Then the dealer stands pat or busts. Then, all remaining players that did not bust compare the value of their cards. The dealer then determines who won, who lost, and who

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pushed (tied). The winners get paid, the losers lose their bet, and those that tied (or pushed) keep their wager.

That’s the simple game of blackjack. There are a few special rules that are allowed or not, depending on the country, state, casino, or table. Surrender is one of these rules. So are insurance, splitting pairs, doubling down, and the almost universal ‘Blackjack pays one and a half to one’ – with a few exceptions around the globe. With all that, the house maintains a narrow edge over the players for a single bet with all else being equal. Such a simple game.

And it is simple, if you walk into a casino, place one bet, make your best decision on the cards you are dealt, then win or lose and leave the casino for dinner or for a show. This happens, but that’s not the game you love to play.

Think back to the man and the woman at the

roulette table, though. They seemed to have a complex plan and equally complex and well though out process. More like a business or investment system. Much more than just coming in to place one bet on red or black, to win or lose, and then off to dinner or a show. What do we need to know about blackjack as a business or


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investment system? In the next chapter we will look at the

educated blackjack player’s understanding of the basic rules of the game from the perspective of accounting (the number value of the cards in a game of blackjack). We will examine the accounting rules of blackjack from two different perspectives. First, the house accounting rules, or how the dealer counts the value of the cards in his hand. Then, the player accounting rules, or how the educated player counts the value of the cards in his hand.

After that, we will address the proper

application of player strategic advantage, and cover the overall dynamics of winning and losing. Then, how the educated blackjack player can use tactical and strategic advantages to increase the probability of winning individual hands, and to increase the amount of the winning wager on the initial bet and on subsequent bets.

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2 ACCOUNTING

ACCOUNTING is the language of business and investing. Accounting is a good term to use for the calculations that are part of the game of blackjack and for measuring the effectiveness of the skill sets used by the educated blackjack community.

This chapter is all about counting or scoring the cards to determine who wins and who loses. Some of the counting methods or features of the game are important to the dealer. Other counting methods or features are important to the players. The educated blackjack player learns both sets of features so that they are ‘automatic’ or instinctive. This puts the educated blackjack player on a par with the most skilled and experienced dealers.


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Dealer Accounting The most significant feature of the accounting

function is that the dealer’s actions are governed by the casino. The dealer is trained to deal cards, maintain a real-time awareness of each players point total. The dealer is also trained to collect the player’s bet and cards when the player busts, to pay the winning players, leave the player’s bet when they push, and collect the cards.

To do this quickly and accurately the dealer is trained to perform the following calculations quickly: 1) Aces may be counted as the number one or eleven. A hand with an ace that starts out being counted as an eleven is called a ‘soft’ hand. A soft hand can be converted to a hard hand by counting the ace as a one. The soft hand can be reduced in value – to create a better hand. Once a soft hand is converted to a hard hand – by counting the ace as a one – it cannot be reduced in points. There is nothing smaller than a one.

This is important as the dealer seeks to build his hand to an authorized winning hand – according to house rules. Casino rules differ internationally, but Las Vegas rules say this:

A dealer with a soft seventeen (an ace and a

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six) must draw another card to create a hard seventeen or better.

Other classic examples are when a dealer has two aces. Counting both aces as an eleven would be a bust (at 22), so one ace is counted as eleven, and the other is counted as one (for a total score of 12). This is still a soft hand because one of the aces is counted as eleven – but can be reduced later to a one if needed. In this example, the dealer will take cards to create a hard seventeen or better (Vegas Rules).

If the dealer with a soft 12 draws a five or lower, his score is a soft seventeen (and he must draw another card – to get a hard seventeen or better).

If the dealer with a soft 12 draws a six through nine, he will stand pat with a soft eighteen through soft 21.

If the dealer with a soft 12 draws a ten, his score converts to a hard 12 (the second ace is reduced to a one because the soft count of 22 would be a bust).

If the dealer with a soft 12 draws an ace, his score is now soft 13 (the third ace is scored as one because the soft count of 23 would be a bust).

The dealer scores this hand quickly and draws


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more cards until he gets a hard seventeen, a soft 18 or better, or busts with all aces being counted as one and a total score of 22 or higher.

Skilled and experienced dealers will draw and score these cards with computer-like accuracy.

2) The dealer must achieve a score of at least a hard seventeen (Vegas Rules). Once the dealer has a score of hard seventeen or better (soft 18 is better) he can draw no more cards. When playing internationally, be sure to ask ‘will the dealer stand pat on a soft seventeen?’

Player Accounting Up to this point the player has most of the

advantages, and the dealer has one. The player has selected the time to sit at the table to play blackjack, and has the proper size stake, and adequate rest, food, and mental awareness to make decisions and place bets. The dealer’s advantage is the same one that was mentioned before: the player draws cards first and loses if he busts (even if the dealer busts later).

The following accounting rules must be second-nature to the player to make sure that the player maintains all his advantages and does not

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make a bad decision (by scoring cards incorrectly or by taking more cards when he should stand pat).

1) Aces may be counted as the number one or eleven for the player (as well as for the dealer). Educated Blackjack will instruct you when to count aces as eleven and when to count aces as one (later in the book). 2) The players may ask for as many cards they want, until they stand pat or bust. This means that the player can stand pat with two or more cards. This is a new advantage for the players. The dealer must hit or stand pat according to house rules. The player can hit or stand pat based on strategic advantage. 3) If the player receives a pair (two of a kind) of any card in the initial deal, he can split the pair to create two hands (and play those two hands separately). House rules govern the wager, but expect to place a new and equal wager on the second hand created. Then, the player gets one new card for each of the hands created by splitting pairs. Next, the player will take hits or stand pat on each of the new hands (one first


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then the other). After splitting pairs, each new hand is scored (and won or lost) separately. The ability to split pairs is a huge new strategic advantage for the player. The book will cover winning strategy later. 4) If the player is dealt a hand of two cards with the value of eleven or less, he may ‘double down’ by adding a wager equal to the original bet. House rules differ internationally and may limit doubling down to an original (two card) score of 10 or 11 only. The ability to double down (like spitting pairs) is a huge strategic advantage for the player.

House rules do not permit the dealer to split pairs or double down. These two options are strategic advantages for the players only. 5) If the player is dealt a hand of two cards with the value of ace and ten, he scores a ‘blackjack’ and wins the hand immediately - unless the dealer also has an act and ten (original hand). Blackjack pays the player at least one and a half of his bet. 6) If the dealer has an ace showing (the other card is hidden), he will ask the players if they want ‘Insurance’. House rules differ on insurance,

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but players may protect their original wager by betting an equal amount as insurance against a dealer blackjack. If the dealer reveals a blackjack, the player paying insurance keeps the original bet and keeps the insurance bet. If the dealer does not have a blackjack, the player loses his insurance, and the game continues.

These are the basic rules of blackjack. There are slight variations in casinos around the world. These variations may be as important as the basic rules themselves for two reasons. First – they will dictate where and when you play blackjack. Second - they will also dictate the decisions that you need to make to maximize your strategic advantage as a player, and keep the house advantages limited to house rules.

Does it matter where you play blackjack? Absolutely! The accounting rules and strategic advantages govern the player’s actions and some house rules are better than others. Be sure to consider all factors when determining where and when to play educated blackjack. The goal is to ply your trade craft in a way that maintains strategic advantages of the game – for the player.

Always remember that even though the dealer


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has two basic accounting factors (and the players have six) these rules of accounting have allowed the gaming industry to grow into a trillion-dollar industry in the U.S. and around the world. The bottom line is that the revenue for the luxury resorts and casinos came from players – not the house.

Educated blackjack players never forget that it is the gambler who pays for the beautiful resort hotels and casinos, for the salaries of the dealers and pit bosses, investment return for the owners, and for the lights and magic that create the 24-hour mecca’s for winners and losers.

How can this happen? The educated blackjack player knows that the house rules give the casinos a slight advantage on a single bet. But there is more. The educated blackjack players knows that the first order of business is to master the basic rules of blackjack, to understand the basic advantage of the house, and to understand and apply the basic rules of accounting – dealer and player accounting.

Once the A-B-Cs are fully understood, we will address the proper application of player strategic advantage, and cover the overall dynamics of winning and losing – and how the house is able to generate massive gambling revenue day-in and

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day-out. Let’s begin. Study the following patterns and idiosyncrasies

that relate to the players rules of accounting. Refer back to the two rules for dealer accounting and the six rules for player accounting as often as you need to. The educated blackjack player uses each of the six rules for dealer accounting to his or her advantage. 1) When you have an ace in your original hand of two cards – but without a ten – you must consider two things at the same time. First, this is a huge investment opportunity. Second, the ace in the hand of the player creates a tactical advantage that the educated blackjack player will turn to a strategic advantage. Strategic advantage comes into play if house rules allow doubling down on any two cards. And, the ace is a safety valve that will allow you to try to improve your score without busting – if you draw a third card. 2) The player’s freedom of choice in the number of cards drawn is a tactical advantage over the dealer. The dealer must draw cards based on house rules alone. The educated blackjack player turns the tactical advantage into a strategic


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advantage by viewing his own cards and score against the backdrop of the dealer’s visible card. This strategic advantage will be maintained as the educated blackjack player makes decisions and takes actions that optimize the player’s opportunity to win, and opportunity to maximize the wager size. 3) Splitting pairs is the educated blackjack player’s first opportunity to apply the strategic advantage of improving the win probability of the hand with the equally strategic advantage of increasing the wager for a strong split pair. Splitting pairs can enable you to overcome losses from poor hands, increase the return on a good split pair, decrease the loss potential of a poor hand, and turn the tide of the game from dealer advantage to player advantage. The limitations to splitting pairs are these. Then a general rule, then an exception. When splitting aces, most house rules only allow the player to draw a single card for each ace. If a ten is drawn for one or both aces, it is counted as a 21 only and not as a ‘blackjack’ (with one and a half payout).

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With any other pair of cards, the pair may be split (based on house rules) and the player may draw as many cards desired (until he busts) or stand pat with two or more cards. The general rule: always split aces and eights. The exception: if the player splits aces, most casinos will allow an additional split, if the player draws another ace on top of an ace that was just split. In this case the player has three hands with equal bets. 4) Doubling down is the educated blackjack player’s second opportunity to apply the strategic advantage of improving the win probability of the hand with the equally strategic advantage of increasing the wager for a strong double down. This can enable you to overcome losses from poor hands, increase the return on a good double down, decrease the loss potential of a poor hand, and turn the tide of the game from dealer advantage to player advantage. The limitations to doubling down are these, then a general rule, then an exception.


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When doubling down, some casinos only allow the player to double down on a 10 or an 11. If a double down results in a score of 21, it is only counted as a 21 only and not as a ‘blackjack’ (with one and a half payout). A blackjack is only possible on the initial hand of two cards, with one being an ace and the other being a card that scores as ten (10 or face card). General rule: unlike splitting pairs, there is never a hard-and-fast rule for doubling down. Still, the educated blackjack player will look for every opportunity to increase the wager on a very good hand, and to increase the wager when the dealer has a very bad hand. The exception: some casinos allow doubling down on any two card value. This is where the educated blackjack player uses skill for strategic advantage. 5) Getting an ace and a ten-value card on the initial deal is ‘blackjack’ and speaks for itself. The payout is one and a half to one (150 ducats on a 100 ducat bet), with one exception. The exception is that if the dealer has a blackjack and

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the player does too, the hand is a push (tie). The exceptions, side bets, and special considerations. One exception to the guaranteed win and payout for a blackjack is this: the dealer has an ace showing (and the other card is hidden). The dealer will recognize the player’s blackjack, point to the dealer’s ace, and ask all players if the want insurance. If the player has nerves of steel, just decline the insurance bet and hope like hell that the dealer has a nine or lower for the hidden card. If this is the case, the dealer will pay the blackjack (one and a half times the bet). If the dealer also has a blackjack, the blackjack player and the dealer push – the player keeps his original bet. There is no hard and fast rule on insurance when the player has a blackjack. If the bet is 100 ducats, the dealer has an ace, and the player accepts insurance – the player will push the blackjack bet and win the insurance bet. Some think that insurance is a waste of a bet (high probability for the house) and never take the insurance bet. Other players determine whether or not to take the insurance bet based on how ‘lucky’ the dealer


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is. Statistically, insurance is a poor bet. Betting on ‘lucky’ is a poor bet as well. 6) Insurance for non-blackjack hands is the final detailed discussion of the rules for player accounting. The educated blackjack player has a good understanding of if and when to accept the insurance bet (or not) when the player has a blackjack and the dealer is showing an ace. For all other situations when the dealer is showing an ace, and the player has something other than a blackjack the following general rule applies: Insurance is a poor bet for the player, and insurance is a particularly poor bet for the player with a dismal two-card hand (for several reasons). First, insurance is a poor bet for the players and a good bet for the house. As a side bet, the house has a much greater chance of winning the insurance bet, regardless of the value of the players’ cards. Secondly, rookie players may attempt to ‘protect’ a very good hand by accepting insurance – and

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laboring under the false belief that if they take insurance and win, they protected a very good hand. The error in logic is that if they win the insurance, the hand is over. Odds for insurance is still in the house’s favor. Players that take the insurance bet should be clairvoyant. Let’s test your intuition, answers at the bottom. Question 1: A player at your table has both cards showing and can only see one of the dealer’s cards. The dealer’s second card is hidden. The player and the dealer can both see that the player has a soft seventeen (an ace and a six both showing). The player then asks the dealer ‘What should I do?’ Is this player and educated blackjack player? Answer 1: Maybe. Educated blackjack players know that the dealer is bound to play by house rules (even when he sees that that the player has a terrible hand). Educated blackjack players also know that most dealers are taught to help the players – and help


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them play by the generally accepted rules of blackjack. There is a good chance that our player is an educated blackjack player and is determining how helpful the dealer is. As your third-grade teacher often said ‘There are no stupid questions.’ Ask the dealer – you’ll know if he is a helpful dealer. Then, play your hand regardless.

We have just covered the basic rules of

blackjack and how they apply to the accounting rules for dealers and players. We have identified the importance of player strategy to optimize player advantage.

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3 THE HOUSE

THE HOUSE conjures up scenes of terror like an Edgar Allen Poe story for most rookie gamblers. For the educated blackjack player, no so much. The educated blackjack player knows that the house is like oxygen, its just there – always there. And, like oxygen, there are certain key features or attributes that you need to know about and rules that must be followed.

The ‘house’ is the casino itself and the rules that govern gaming operations at the casino. The house consists of the business people and investors, employees, and facilities that the casino and the gaming floor are built around. ‘House rules’ are the generally agreed upon rules for the individual table games and slots on the casino floor. House rules are complex, but designed to


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be taught to casino employees in rigorous detail, and designed to be easily learned and understood by the players.

For us, the table game of choice is blackjack,

of course. The general accounting rules have been explained and should be reviewed periodically. The equipment used will be a deck of cards on the table. For the purpose of explaining the relationship between the house, the players, and the cards – we will assume that only a single deck of cards is in play. This is important to keep the expectations predictable in a deck of 52 cards.

A note: some house rules allow and offer blackjack games with ‘single deck rules’. This means that for the specific game at the specific table, the dealer will shuffle and deal hands from a single deck of cards. This is not typical, and veteran gamblers know where to find single deck tables. Plan to frequent casinos that offer one or more tables with single deck rules. Most blackjack tables use a ‘shoe’ (a box) that contains four or more decks of cards, shuffled together and ready to deal for faster play.

The educated blackjack player and veteran

gambler both know that the house’s objective is

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to get your money and limit your opportunity to win the house’s money. Pedestrians in Las Vegas all know that ‘The house always wins.’ They think they know, that is. But, the educated blackjack player knows how things really work. Sure, the house has a statistical advantage for the single bet, placed on red or black, on a given day, in an honest casino. But there’s more to know.

It is apparent to any seasoned player that in the

long run, and in the majority of short run case, the house wins. Fair enough. But it is far from clear to the vast majority of observers exactly how the house does what it does to win. The skeptic merely suggests that ‘You can’t beat the system,’ and considers the system no more. The bankrupt gambler honestly believes that ‘You can’t beat the house odds,’ and for the most part, is correct. But, the educated blackjack player knows that the ‘house odds’ are made up of a lot more than the marginal statistical percentage and advantage that the house maintains on a single roll of the dice, a single drop of the marble, or a single turn of a card.

You will now enter the ranks of the educated blackjack player who know exactly how and why the house wins when it wins, loses when it loses,


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and breaks even when it breaks even. You will learn why the house typically wins more than it loses. And, most importantly, you will learn the best way to protect and maintain your strategic advantages; keep the house advantages to a minimum, and how to maximize your earning potential – on your terms.

The Slight House Advantage

House rules, or the individual casino rules of

blackjack gives the house only a slight advantage for each individual deal of the cards. The law of large numbers and the huge volume of cash and chips in play over time give the house predictable and substantial revenue. This predictable revenue or ‘drop’ is enough to satisfy the most risk averse business person and investor, casino owner and manager, CPA, and investment banker. Casino investment offers substantial return on investment and will make the planning and building of new and bigger casinos a safe investment.

The educated blackjack player is aware of this slight house advantage, and will take steps to understand and apply the house rules in a way that keeps the house advantage a slight advantage.

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The educated blackjack player also knows that this is just the beginning of the learning process, though. So let’s start at the beginning before we advance to the secret knowledge that the house does not want you to know.

Ask anyone in a casino or working in the

gaming industry how the house can win at blackjack – and win consistently over time. They will go into a lengthy statistical or philosophical discussion about how, over an extended period of time the house will win more hands than the player. The bloviating experts will continue to describe that after thousands and thousands of hands of blackjack, the house will win a few more hands that the players, and how over time, these few hands will account for millions of dollars of revenue, day after day, week after week, and year after year.

This is absolutely true. But, it is also an incomplete answer.

With all the dealer’s soft or hard hands that are equal or better than seventeen, with all of the player’s soft or hard hands that win, lose, or push the dealer’s score, and with all the blackjacks, double downs, split pairs, and insurance bets – the house maintains a slight advantage for each


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hand. After one thousand hands of blackjack with

one thousand players, the house will win ten or twenty more hands than the players. This is a statistical fact that can be demonstrated over time and requires thousands of hours of play time or ‘action’.

Check the records, though, and you will find that some gamblers lose fortunes large and small in a very short period of time. This is our first hint that there is much more going on than a simple and slight house advantage. How is this possible and what is going on? It is not only possible, but it is happening right now.

For the moment, accept the fact that each hand dealt gives the house a slight advantage. Later you will learn exactly how the house adds to its slight statistical advantage to generate revenue that is much larger than that caused by the house rules.

The majority of players that sit down at a dollar table will lose significantly more than the ten or twenty dollars than they should lose statistically.

The educated blackjack player’s goal is to understand the house’s slight statistical advantage, but not allow the house to make them part of this

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losing majority.

The Strategic House Advantages

How can a casino realize such a great return of revenue at the expense of so many uneducated players? How can the educated blackjack player prevent the house from introducing a powerful new strategic advantage – against them? Finally, how can the educated blackjack player minimize this and other strategic advantages that the house will bring to its side? All good questions.

Strategic house advantage is introduced using three primary means: time, money, and human nature. These are the same advantages that corporations and big business use to generate revenue and returns for investors. Let’s examine these strategies from the perspective of the financial services industry, another trillion-dollar enterprise.

Insurance companies use the same means to generate revenue and profits: time, money, and human nature. Accountants and CPAs know that if insurance companies use the correct actuarial charts to predict the life-span of its customers, they can predict with reasonable certainty who will die when, and which life insurance payouts


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will be offset by the insurance premium profits rolling in every month. The difference between the monthly premium payments and the policy payouts will provide a statistically reliable forecast of revenue and profits. A statistical profit.

This statistical advantage is slight for the individual policy, and this advantage is multiplied across the thousands of policies in force. This is only part of the revenue, though. The slight advantage that the insurance companies can offer investors, owners, and managers.

One major advantage occurs over time – policies are cancelled. When the gambler runs out of money and is finished at the casino, the house gathers up all the winnings from that gambler (the stake), and the risk to the house, for that gambler drops to zero. In the same way, the insurance company calculates the total premium payments made over the life of the cancelled policy. All premium payments from that customer convert to 100% profit – with no risk of ever issuing a payment on the policy. The law of large numbers shows that over time hundreds of thousands of life insurance policies are cancelled for all kinds of reasons. In many cases, the policies are cancelled without cash value and without ‘return of premium’. In these cases, the risk to the

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insurance company drops to zero, the premium payments are 100% profit, and the insurance customer went bust – just like the gambler.

This is a major strategic advantage to insurance companies and to the casino.

Educated blackjack players know this, and take steps to limit the impact of this strategic advantage.

A second example. Over time, all companies get larger or smaller, grow subsidiaries and business units, add lines of business, are acquired or go bankrupt, and are subject to national and international fiscal and monetary policy.

For publicly traded companies listed on a major stock exchange or on the ‘pink sheets’ the investing public can see the company stock price rise and fall, but seldom stay the same.

Stock exchange floor traders know that nothing happens if the stock price remains steady, or increases at by only a modest 2% - 3% each year.

Wildly fluctuating stock prices generate a lot of interest in the market in general, and in the individual company stock in particular. Aggressive investors are looking for companies that have great changes in the bid and asked price of the stock, particularly if those stock price


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changes happen in over a few days or a few hours. Risk averse investors that count on stable stock prices for income or investment are advised to make careful decisions about the volatility of the stocks they own, and the possibility of losing the investment principal. Nevertheless, markets are made on stock price volatility and wildly fluctuating prices.

Time, money, human nature and the value of stock prices. When stock prices rise of fall with great volatility, a market is created. Falling markets create just as much interest as rising markets. The conservative advice to ‘buy low and sell high’ is replaced with an attempt to predict or ‘time” the market’s rise and fall.

Over time, the market rises, but the same cannot be said for every company stock.

Fact: the investing public sells high performing stocks and keeps low performing stocks. This occurs for the same time, money, and human nature reasons that cause the rookie gambler to make reckless and uneducated bets – in an effort to ‘break even’ – and risk losing more and more of the stake, until it is gone.

The industry standard commission for a stockbroker or mutual fund advisor is 5% or more, but a minimum of 5% to keep the lights on

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for the brokerage house. With this modest fee paid, the investment houses recommend stocks, bonds, or mutual funds that they ‘like’ or that their firm lists on a recommended ‘buy’ sheet. Smart agents know that ‘you can never get fired losing your client’s funds in blue chip stocks and securities’. So the fix is in.

What happens next, to the uneducated investor, is predictable – and different every time, depending on the skill, experience, and risk aversion of the community of investors. Even good advice to set up buy limits and stop loss orders is of limited value now. The average investor is now at the mercy of the bulls and bears.

When the stock price tumbles, the ‘weak sisters’ are shaken out and compelled to sell at depressed prices. At the same time, thousands of stop loss orders are triggered, to kick the other conservative investors out of the market at temporary low stock prices. Then the share price rebounds (powered by the active and aggressive buying patterns of the floor traders and brokerage houses – knowing that they are ‘making market’ and picking up good shares at discount prices. The fixed-income and conservative investors ask “What happened?” The market was made, and


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the average investor is standing on the sidelines, counting their investment losses – as the Dow Jones continues to tick higher.

Just like the insurance or investment company

owners, the casino managers know and understand the first rule of this add-on strategic advantage. Bump your clientele out of the game with losses, and the result for the house is pure profit and zero risk.

The educated blackjack player knows this and takes steps to mitigate the effect of this house advantage.

Let’s review the dynamics of time, money, and

human nature before we move on. Refer back to these three dynamics periodically to maximize your strategic advantage and to limit the effectiveness of the house’s advantages:

Time. Ask an impulsive gambler why he lost

more money that he planned to and he will probably say ‘I gambled too long’, or ‘I should have quit hours ago when I was ahead’. This is typical and not worth arguing about. Just ask and say ‘Okay’. Most people think that the more time you gamble, the more you will lose. Nothing is

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further from the truth. The house proves my point – they gamble continually. Casinos in Las Vegas never close. They don’t have any clocks in the casino, and they don’t want you to know what time it is, but trust me – they never close.

So the problem is not time spent gambling. The problem is addressed with this question: What is the rookie gambler doing with all that time?

The educated blackjack player is different. He or she makes the most of the time element in many ways to play to his or her strategic advantages for a set amount of time. This is typically 4 hours to 16 hours of dedicated and disciplined application of the rules and strategies in this book.

In contract the rookie gambler makes very poor use of the time in the game. This starts with an undisciplined approach to the game, hopping in and out for a few hands, playing low probability hunches, running out to a show or to dinner, and in a final act of desperation – betting all their remaining chips on a crappy hand as the dealer draws another blackjack in the middle of an extended dealer hot streak.

Money. Ask our impulsive gambler how he


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could have lost such a great sum of money at the casino today, and he may say ‘I took too much money to the casino’. This is another foolish statement – but don’t tell him that.

Look at the house. No gambler brings more money to the casino than the house itself. And the house usually converts its vast sum of money into winnings, not losses. Gamblers who have lost great sums will advise ‘Never gamble on credit’, or ‘never gamble on borrowed money’. Sound advice, but casinos gamble with borrowed money all the time, with the full approval of investors and bank examiners. It is time for the rookie gambler to take a lesson from the educated blackjack player who knows that money and time are assets that must be used strategically. Time and money are not the cause of wins or losses, they are assets that the educated blackjack player uses to ply his trade craft – to ‘stay in the game’ if you will – to generate the maximum impact from the player’s strategic advantages.

And finally, human nature. The insurance,

investment, and gambling examples show the importance of understanding human nature. Although you cannot use the dynamics of human nature against the house, you can work hard not

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to become a victim of your own human nature. That’s why the educated blackjack player prepares well for every session. Well fed, well rested, mentally prepared – just like the Olympic athlete. Disciplined use of time and rules, all designed to maximize the player’s strategic advantages. And, designed to mitigate the negative effects of the house’s advantages.

We just completed the chapter on the house

and the strategic advantages that the house will use to defeat the average rookie gambler.

We addressed the slight house advantage – a small statistical advantage that applies to each turn of the cards. And, we addressed the strategic house advantages of time, money and human nature.

Review this chapter often. The goal is to make optimal use of the player’s strategic advantages, while working hard to avoid being a victim of the house’s strategic advantages.

That’s what the educated blackjack player does. You should do that too. Be the educated blackjack player.

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4 THE PLAYER

AVERAGE PLAYERS approach the game in a similar manner. Pay your money and take your chances. Many see blackjack as just another table game where the house has a slight advantage over the players – like picking red or black on the roulette table, or betting on the come for craps.

The educated blackjack player, on the other hand, takes the long view of the game, and so will you. You will learn to approach the blackjack table as you would a complex business deal, executed successfully over a period of time. You will consider each action as one in a disciplined series of events that will support your goals of profit maximization. You also understand the risk of allowing the house to bring the big guns – of strategic advantage – in a way that would make

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you another victim. Your knowledge of the rules of the game, the

house and its slight and strategic advantages are the starting point. Your knowledge and stature as a player grows as you bring new knowledge to the game. Knowledge of your strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats – carefully positioned – to make each decision required of the educated blackjack player. Your knowledge is the single factor in determining the outcomes of each hand, and each session – to generate maximum profit and to limit your risk. The overarching risk is that of being bumped out of the game with losses.

To maximize profit and minimize risk, we will address the decisions that you will make to diminish the house’s assets. Then we will cover the methods that you will use to grow your player assets, how to grow your profits by moving ‘house money’ to your side of the table.

Diminishing House Assets

The first consideration is you proper selection

of cards. By carefully learning and following these rules, you will minimize the house’s slight advantage and all but eliminate the house’s strategic advantages. And in the words of the


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New York City tour guide: ‘How do you get to Carnegie Hall?’ Answer: ‘Practice, practice, practice.’

You will play blackjack with a single deck of

cards whenever possible. To do this, you will research the casinos that have single deck tables that are opened for extended periods of time – preferably 24 hours a day. Then you will determine the optimal playing schedule – to get and keep a seat at the table.

Within the single deck, almost one-third of the cards are scored as ten points. And, because of this, blackjack is ‘a game of tens’. Remember this fact as you draw or stand pat, and as you assess the quality of the dealer’s hand (and the card that is visible).

To make this section easy to remember, we will simplify the game to six rules, RULE 1 to RULE 6.

RULE 1: Regard any card that you cannot see as a ten count card (scored at 10 points). Rationale: the single deck provides an equal opportunity to draw a ten count card, but there are 16 ten count cards (the ten, the jack, the

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queen, and the king). This means that you have a 16-to-52 chance to draw a ten with a properly shuffled deck. This is more than a 3 in 10 chance of drawing a ten count card. By observing RULE 1, you will know exactly which action to take as you select cards or stand pat. Here are some examples to show you what to do:


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Dealer’s hand

The dealer will offer you the chance to draw a card or stand pat. Right now, the dealer has a winning hand. RULE 1 says assume that a 10 count card is hidden.

Your hand

RULE 1 also says that you will bust when you draw a 10. In spite of the risk, you must assume that the dealer has 20 and will win. You must take action to draw cards until you have at least a 17 or higher – then stand pat.

And this is where you develop nerves of steel. You follow RULE 1, and draw a card.

If you draw an ace, you are only at 16 points and must draw again. If you draw a 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6 – stand pat. If you draw a 7, 8, 9, or ten count card you bust.

The house advantage here: player goes first. If the player busts, he loses (even if the dealer busts next). Your advantage: to draw to a 17 or better. Use the same house rule that the dealer must follow.

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Consider this new hand: Dealer’s hand

RULE 1 says assume that a 10 count card is hidden. This means that both you and the dealer have the same lousy hand – a 15. RULE 1 also says that whoever goes first will bust. You go first.

Your hand

RULE 1 also says that you will bust when you draw a 10. So you stand pat on 15. Its pucker time – RULE 1 says that you will watch the dealer show a ten count card, then draw another 10 to bust. Your goal: win with a 15.

Nerves of steel. Follow RULE 1, stand pat on 15. If the dealer draws a 7, 8, 9, or a ten count card, he busts and you win with a 15.

The house advantage here: player goes first. If the player busts, he loses (even if the dealer busts next). Your advantage: force the dealer to go first by standing pat. He has to draw to 17 by house rules.


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It is easy to apply RULE 1 when your hand is seventeen or higher on the initial deal. With a player hand of 17 or more, stand pat and hope for the best regardless of the dealer’s visible card. Dealer’s hand

RULE 1 says assume that a 10 count card is hidden. This means that the dealer has a winning hand with 20.

Your hand

RULE 1 also says that you will bust when you draw a 10. Its pucker time again, and RULE 1 - stand pat on 17. By standing on hard 17, you are matching the house rules that the dealer must follow.

Rationale: RULE 1 says that the next card drawn will be a ten count card. Since the player has to go first, drawing a 17 will cause you to bust with a 27.

If the house makes the dealer stand pat on a hard 17, you should too. Move the slight advantage to your side of the table. Do what the house would do.

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One more example. Dealer’s hand

RULE 1 says assume that a 10 count card is hidden. This means that the dealer has a losing hand with 15. House rules will force him to draw to hard 17. RULE 1 says he will bust.

Your hand

You go first with a great hand. House rules would require the dealer to stand pat on a 19. RULE 1 – says not to draw a ten count card, you would bust.

By standing on hard 19, you let the dealer go first with a bad hand – and hopefully bust.

This is an easy hand to play. Practice dealing out hands of cards, player cards up, and one dealer card visible. Get comfortable applying RULE 1 to every hand you play. Remember that the player goes first and risks busting first, regardless of the dealer’s hand.

RULE 1 is simple – assume any hidden card is a ten count card, and assume the next card drawn will be a ten count card.


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RULE 2: if your hand is hard seventeen or better, stand pat and hope for the best regardless of the dealer’s visible card. RULES 1 and 2 allow you to play educated blackjack correctly, with speed and confidence. RULE 2 also moves two of the slight house advantages to your side of the table: stand pat on hard seventeen. The house requires the dealer to stand pat on a hard seventeen. By standing pat on a hard 17, you are ‘flipping the script’ and doing what the house would do. This is the first slight advantage. Next, as the player, you always have to go first. By standing pat on a hard seventeen (two cards), you are forcing the dealer to go first. This turns the tides on the house again – you are doing what the house would do. RULE 2 works together well with RULE 1. In the last example for RULE 1 (opposite page), the player has moved two of the house’s slight advantages to the player’s side of the table. In the example to the left:

- RULE 2 says stand pat on hard 17 or better,

- RULE 1 says the dealer will bust,

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- Player steals the slight advantage (house rule) to stand pat on hard seventeen or better, and

- Player steals the slight advantage (house rule) by making the dealer go first (and bust first by drawing a ten count card on the draw).

RULE 3 is easy to remember with practice. Always split aces and eights. Never split fives, nines, or tens – regardless of what the dealer’s visible card is. Not surprising that RULE 3 turns out to be the ‘Always’ and ‘Never’ rule. Your grandmother may have said ‘never say never’, but in this case even she would make an exception. Think about the ‘Always’ part of RULE 3 for a moment. Flip two aces face up on the practice table for a moment and take a good look. The aces add up to a score of hard two or soft twelve. You can draw one card with no risk of busting (even though RULE 1 says that the next card will be a ten). If you draw a ten, the hard 2 becomes a hard 12, and the soft 12 becomes a hard 12. Since you want to draw to a hard 17 or better, you must draw. But, RULE 1 says that you will


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draw a 10 and bust with a hard 22. Now do you see why you always split aces? Two aces make a lousy two-card hand. By following RULE 3 and splitting the aces, you double your bet, and invoke RULE 1 for the two new hands that start with aces. Most house rules only allow one additional card for each ace. RULE 1 says that each new card drawn will be a ten count card. Expect to get a soft 21 for both hands. Remember: you do not score a ‘blackjack’ when you split aces. Expect to win even money. Think about the ‘Always’ part of RULE 3 again. Flip two eights face up on the practice table for a moment and take a good look. The eights add up to a score of hard 16, a lousy hand. RULE 1 says that the next card will be a ten. You have to go first (house rules) and you should draw until you get a hard seventeen (RULE 2). If you draw a ten, the hard 16 becomes a hard 26 and you bust. Since you want to draw to a hard 17 or better, you must draw. But, RULE 1 says that you will draw a 10 and bust with a hard 22. Now do you see why you always split eights? Two eights make a lousy two-card hand. By following

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RULE 3 and splitting the eights, you double your bet, and invoke RULE 1 for the two new hands that start with eights. Most house rules only you to hit the eights with as many cards as you want. RULE 1 says that each new card drawn will be a ten count card. Expect to get a hard 18 for both hands. Two great hands. The ‘Never’ side of RULE 3 is easy. Two tens are a fantastic hand with high probability of winning and should never be split. The same goes for nines. Two fives equals ten, and RULE 1 predicts that a ten count card will be drawn next, resulting in a 20, another great hand. Under RULE 3, we have not addressed splitting twos, threes, fours, sixes, or sevens. These are not covered under RULE 3 with ‘Always’ and ‘Never’ statements of instruction. And remember, this section deals with diminishing the house’s assets. We will address special options like splitting twos, threes, fours, sixes, and sevens in the next section – Optimizing the Player’s Assets. The ‘Always’ side of RULE 3 ensures that the player maximizes the strategic advantage of splitting aces and eights – regardless of the


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dealer’s visible card. By always splitting aces and eights, the player doubles his bet as he turns a lousy hand into two great hands – with increased probability of beating the dealer’s single hand. And notice how the RULES work together. By splitting aces and eights (RULE 3), the educated blackjack player is invoking RULE 1 to help draw the right ten-count cards to make two great hands out of what was initially a single lousy hand. Special note: when splitting eights, an occasional miracle occurs. This is covered under RULE 4. Just remember that on occasion, RULE 3 and RULE 4 can work together to further diminish house assets. RULE 4 has a powerful ability to diminish the house’s assets as well. Always double down when your two cards total a score of ten or eleven when the dealer’s visible card is two, three, four, five, or six. RULE 4 works together with RULE 1 to turn the player’s two-card total of ten or eleven into a

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three-card total of twenty or twenty-one. Good possibility for a great hand. Ay the same time, the dealer’s visible card of 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6, combined with RULE 1 assumption that the dealer’s hidden card is a team, means that the dealer has a lousy hand – a 12, 13, 14, 15, or 16 – and will be forced to draw another card to score a hard seventeen or better. Again, RULE 1 suggests that the dealer will draw the third card and bust with a score of 22, 23, 24, 25, or 26. As covered previously, the action of doubling down gives a strategic advantage to the player. In this section, RULE 4 doubles the size of the player’s bet – at a critical time – when the player has the chance for a great hand, and the dealer has a high likelihood of busting. The house advantage of forcing the player to go first is nullified. With a ten or eleven, the player goes first but cannot bust on a single card draw. Before we move on, one more comment about RULE 4. This rule covers doubling down when the player has a ten or eleven. The educated blackjack player will seek casinos where the house rules allow the player to double down on any two card hand.


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This section covers the rules that Diminish the House’s Assets in a systematic and predictable way. The future section on Optimizing the Player’s Assets will cover doubling down when the player’s two card total score is something other than ten or eleven. For now, let’s move on to RULE 5, another way to Diminish the House’s Assets. Unlike splitting pairs and doubling down, this rule prevents the player from allowing the house to benefit from a house strategic advantage. RULE 5 states that the player will never take insurance, unless he has cards totaling ten or eleven with the intention of doubling down; or unless the player has a pair of aces that he plans to split. Remember, the insurance option is offered by the dealer when the dealer’s visible card is an ace. And, insurance is an offer to protect the player’s bet if the dealer’s hidden card is a ten – to wit, the dealer has a ‘blackjack’. And RULE 5 is not a hard and fast rule. Educated Blackjack is not insisting that the player

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take the insurance option if he has a good double down hand or a pair of aces to split. RULE 5 only states that he will never take insurance unless the player has the full intention of doubling down or splitting the aces. RULE 5 is not an ‘Always’ rule, and the player makes the call based on his planned intentions. Obviously, if the dealer has a blackjack, that hand is over and the point is moot. RULE 6 is the final rule in this section on Diminishing the House’s Assets. Always stand pat with soft nineteen (ace and eight) and soft twenty (ace and nine) when the dealer’s visible card is 7, 8, 9, 10, face card, or ace. The remainder of the rules covering other soft hands will be addressed in the section on Optimizing the Player’s Assets.

In the previous chapter on The House, you learned about the slight advantage of the house – based on the house rules, and the strategic advantages of the house – based on time, money, and human nature.

In this chapter on The Educated Player, you have learned the six RULES for diminishing the


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house’s assets. Review and study these RULES until they

become second nature. To even stand a chance against the house, the ordinary gambler is hopelessly lost – but not the educated blackjack player. The knowledge that you have gained to this point place you in a tactical advantage over the house. You have learned how to negate many of the slight house advantages, and how to turn the tides on several of the house’s strategic advantages. In martial arts parlance, you are the jujitsu warrior – turning the momentum and moves of you opponent against him. And, like the jujitsu warrior, you must practice your technique (the RULES) until they are second-nature.

By this time, you have begun to mentally accumulate a substantial number of the house’s assets on your side of the table. Before you start to call for empty racks to ferry chips to the cage – let’s discuss the actions that you will take to Optimize the Player’s Assets.

So study the preceding pages with care and diligence, and advance to the next section only when confident and eager to learn the factors and methods that will take your game to the next

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level.

Optimizing the Player’s Assets

The information contained in this section is known to only a few individuals. The information is very old, but has been obscured by the glitz and glamour of Las Vegas and the bright lights of other resort casinos. The factors and methods that you will learn have been passed down from parents to progeny, from card sharps to their protégés, until it was studied in depth by masters of business and industry almost a century ago.

Dr. Edward Russell Dewey (1895-1978) was an economist and professor of Economics at Harvard University. With his extensive background, and keen awareness of the cycles and patterns, the U.S. Department of Commerce awarded Dr. Dewey a contract to conduct research and to develop findings to explain the reason for the Great Depression. He became the in-house economist for the Department of Commerce, and began work at the age of 36.

His work in studying business and economic cycles continued.

At about the same time, a 1931 conference took place in Canada. The focus of the research


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was the study of biological cycles, and drew the top scientists and research from the field of medicine.

In Chicago, a young man named W. Clement Stone invested $100 and began to grow his insurance business to a $100 million empire. He was 29 years old.

By 1940, the combined work of educators,

scientists, and businessmen launched the Foundation for the Study of Cycles in the U.S. and Canada – and would draw membership from around the globe.

Based on the plethora of research findings that were being developed by Dr. Dewey and others, a permanent committee was formed for the Canadian conference, and other research groups were established. This greatly expanded the nature of the study of cycles for all matters scientific, economic, and academic.

Dr. Dewey and Edwin F. Dakin co-authored a book in 1947. The title is Cycles: the Science of Prediction and it described their research findings that the economy of the U.S. was governed by predictable cycles. Key factors were responsible for the rise and fall of the economic cycles over time. Similar cycles were found in biology, nature,

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and the health and migration patterns of wildlife in North America and around the world.

Dr. Dewey devoted his life to the study of cycles and made this statement in 1967:

Cycles are meaningful, and all science that has been

developed in the absence of cycle knowledge is inadequate and partial. ...any theory of economics, sociology, history, medicine, or climatology that ignores non-chance rhythms is as manifestly incomplete as medicine was before the discovery of germs.

1967 was an important year, and ten years

later, the first edition of the book Educated Blackjack was published in Boston, Mass. The first edition is still available as a signed collector’s item (in very limited quantities).

One year after the first publication of Educated Blackjack, Dr. Dewey passed away (1978), and dedicated leaders continued his important work. His contribution to the body of knowledge was vast, and included two overarching findings:

1) “Cycles of identical length were found in

both disciplines,” (economics and biology), and “Similar cycles from different areas reached their


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peaks and troughs at the same time.” Dr. Edward R. Dewey

In 1987, the Foundation’s moved from

Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, to Irvine, California. In 1995, the foundation received a substantial grant from The Tudor Group in New York, launched the Market Research Institute, and included additional research for the financial services industry.

In 2006, the Foundation relocated to Albuquerque, New Mexico and has more that 10,000 members representing more than 43 countries, top colleges and universities, and business and political leaders.

The new research findings are incorporated into this 2012 publication of Educated Blackjack.

Most people that call themselves gamblers are

totally unaware of the possibility of using these well-documented cycles to shift assets from the house to the educated player. The novice is aware of the true but incomplete fact that the house derives a slight profit margin from the house rules. Only the educated blackjack player knows how to use the dynamic of cycles to turn the house’s strategic advantages of time, money, and

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human nature – against the house – and in favor of the player. You are about to enter the inner circle reserved for the most educated players.

Just as the floor traders and market makers on Wall Street use the cycles to shift huge volumes of cash – you will too. Just as the business and economic cycles are powered by time, money, and human nature – you will learn that the cycles of the game of blackjack work the same way.

In Chapter 3, under the section titled The House Strategic Advantage, you learned that the factors of time, money, and human nature are used by the house to great advantage. You will learn now that the factors of time, money, and human nature also drive the cycles and create predictable patterns for wins and losses – both for the house and for the players. In statistical terms, the three factors have a causal relationship to the length of the cycles (time) peaks and valleys of the cycles (money), and the ability of the house to “bump” players out of the game with losses (human nature).

In the following pages, you will learn about

how to optimize the player’s assets by using the cycles to your strategic advantage – and shift the strategic advantage away from the house. Our


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study of cycles will be covered factor-by-factor. Factor 1 – time; Factor 2 – money; and Factor 3 – human nature.

Factor 1 – Time. It was stated earlier that you

cannot gamble too often or too long. The house proves this to be true, and uses it as a strategic advantage. The reason: during any number of blackjack sessions that incorporate one or more cycles, both player and house will win and lose hands. Probabilities and statistics show that it is possible to end up with a repeatable pattern like:

Win, lose, win, lose, win, lose, and so on. It is also possible to see a pattern like: Win, win, win, lose, lose, lose, but both are

unlikely and both the house and players know this to be true.

Players also know that it almost impossible to keep track of the player’s and house’s wins and losses in isolation. Most experienced players keep track of wins and losses by the increasing or decreasing stack of chips on their side of the table. But, chips represent money, and that is Factor 2.

So to study time in isolation we need another paradigm.

We need to step back and look at time alone,

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and will do this using a histogram – a chart that allows us to represent the Factor – 1 of time in isolation.

To set up the example, first deal two cards face up for the house then stand pat or draw cards (for the house) to a hard seventeen. In the example below, the dealer stands pat on a hard seventeen.

If you begin to deal cards to yourself from a single deck, each hand would represent an ‘additional win’ or an ‘additional loss’. A distribution pattern would emerge, and this pattern would not be surprising. In this example, the first hand you dealt yourself is a hard seventeen and you ‘push’ for zero additional wins – you pushed.

The next hand, you drew a hard 18 for one additional win. The next hand you pushed – still holding at one additional win. The fourth hand you drew a hard twenty, for one additional win. Now you are at two additional wins and so on.

Most experienced gamblers will recognize this

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pattern and would say it represents average play. The educated blackjack player also recognizes

the beginning of a shallow ‘win and lose’ cycle. Nothing extreme, nothing that will tempt the educated blackjack player to give strategic advantage to the house – by “betting the farm”.

The next example is the classis ‘never get

ahead’ cycle that most gamblers are familiar with. In this cycle, the dealer is playing by house rules and the player is following all the tenets of Educated Blackjack.

The dealer stands on a soft eighteen, and the

player hits a 13 and draws a 5 for a hard 18 – push. Next, the dealer draws a blackjack; the player drew a 20 – for a loss. Then the dealer hits a soft seventeen with a 3 for 20, the player stood pat with an 18 and loses. And so it goes.

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Experienced gamblers have all seen this before. Win a few, lose a few hands, but the player never gets ahead or breaks even. Its pay-to-play and not much fun.

The next example is also familiar. The dealer

drew an 18 and the player pushed. Then the player wins, followed by another push. On the fourth hand the player draws a 20 to the dealer’s 17, and so on.

This example is familiar to veteran gamblers – get ahead and stay ahead. Neither the house nor the player is winning or losing a great deal of money, but the player’s cards have allowed him to get ahead and stay ahead.

We have just covered the basics of Factor 1 – Time, with a few simple examples showing additional wins and losses over time – all a matter of routine play for blackjack. It is a rare session of blackjack that finishes with the house and the

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player dead even. In the long run, the house will win 10 – 20 more hands than the player in a thousand hands of blackjack. In spite of this, it is not typical for a player to be close to even at the end of an extended playing session. To address the reasons for this we will expand our discussion of Factor 1 – Time to include the study of cycles.

Before we continue, let’s modify the histogram to keep track of cumulative wins and losses, instead of just noting the additional win or loss. Cumulative wins and losses let us see the full impact of cycles across time, and will make our transition to Factor 2 – Money, more understandable.

The major differences in this example is that we are not looking at the win or loss for individual hands of blackjack. Rather, we are looking for cycles of cumulative wins and losses. The next series of histograms represent hundreds of hours of play, and thousands of hands of blackjack. The potential for cumulative wins and losses is much greater – several hundred over time.

The initial ‘flat line’ represents only slight divergence from breaking even for both the player and the house. The dealer is following house rules and the player is following the tenets

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of educated blackjack. Both are holding their own.

Over time, the evidence of cycles emerges as understood by Dr. Dewey and his colleagues. Next, we will focus on the key attributes of cycles.

In the new chart showing cumulative wins and losses, there are a few important data points.

For a period of time the player and the house do their best but maintain close to break even with no substantial and cumulative gains or losses for the player. Then, at reference point “A” the beginning of a cycle emerges. The educated blackjack player could not predict the start of a cycle, but he knows to anticipate cycles, and he knows what to do when the cycle emerges.

Next, let’s take a look at several important reference points on the chart.

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We already mentioned that “A” represents the start of a positive cycle for the player, that emerged after a period of “flat line” activity. “C” represents the end of the positive cycle for the player, and the start of a positive cycle for the house.

“B” represents the area under the curve and above the horizontal like. This area represents time and impact of the positive cycle that the educated player will use to his advantage.

Other reference points on the cumulative chart are as follows: “D” represents the area under the negative cycle curve, and “E” represents the area under the second positive cycle curve. When a novice or rookie gambler encounter the cycles that are illustrated on the opposite page, they will typically respond with “I was lucky,” or “I was unlucky,” depending at which point the entered the game. If they jumped in at “A”, there is a good chance that is they played correctly, and not

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foolishly, they would experience significantly more winning hands than losing hands between “A” and “C”.

The educated blackjack player, on the other

hand, is not interested in attributing wins and losses to luck or chance. The educated player both anticipate cycles and know what to do when a cycle emerges.

Considering Factor 1 – Time, the educated blackjack player will avail himself of sufficient time to allow a positive cycle to emerge. Play time of 4 to 16 hours is not unreasonable for the properly rested, fed, and ready player. The educated blackjack player knows that longer periods of time at the table will expose him to a greater probability of watching a cycle emerge. Whether the cycle is positive or negative, the educated blackjack player is prepared to respond in the right way and at the right time.

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Think back to the man and the woman at the roulette wheel, in the Introduction, on pages ii and iii. They really were not at the roulette table for very long. If they were, nobody noticed them, until the start of the positive cycle (represented by point “A”).

We are still discussing factor 1 – Time, so the shape of the curve on the chart just tracks cumulative wins, and not “winnings” or dollars won.

As a matter of timing, there is little doubt in the minds of the man and woman, or in the minds of the onlookers that something wonderful was happening. Dr. Dewey would have attributed that “something” to the emergence of a cycle, typical of an emerging cycle in economics, in business, or in finance. However you describe it, the couple stayed long enough to observe the state of a positive cycle, confirmed the nature of the cycle, and went to work maximizing their return.

Like the educated blackjack player, the man and woman know that you must do both things: you must recognize the arrival of a cycle, and you must take aggressive and appropriate action to optimize the player’s assets (while minimizing risk).

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Next, we will move on to Factor 2 – Money. Before we do though let’s close out our discussion of timing and the importance of using cycles to optimize the player’s assets.

Traders on the New York Stock Exchange will tell you that investors can make money in bull markets and bear markets – but they must take very different actions in a rising market, and very different actions in a falling market. But the first order of business is to recognize and confirm the positive cycle (bull market), or to recognize the negative cycle (bear market).

So to summarize Factor 1 – Time, just know

that the cycles are real, and the cumulative area under the curve on the chart represents the time and impact of the positive cycle that the educated blackjack player will use to his advantage.

And, the educated blackjack player will stick around long enough to make sure that there is a reasonable opportunity to see and confirm the presence of a cycle. Generally 4 – 16 hours is a good window, but the longer the play time the better. The educated player knows that he may not see a cycle in 4 hours.

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factor of time to optimize the player’s assets. Factor 2 – Money. It was stated earlier that

the rookie gambler blamed his losses on bringing too much money to the casino. This is a foolish statement, because the house brings the most money to the game – and they win consistently. It is more likely that the rookie mismanaged the money that he brought to the casino, betting incorrectly, and requesting cards the wrong way.

So money itself is not the cause of wins or losses. Rather, it is the way we keep score. And, for the educated blackjack player, money is the variable that will turn a modest positive cycle into huge winnings, and will turn a deep negative cycle into an inconvenience that can be tolerated as he waits for the next positive cycle.

The farmer knows this. Every year the

successful farmers take their variable asset – seeds – and plant them in an environment that provides soil, water, nutrients, cultivation, warm sunlight, wind for pollination, and the farmer’s constant care. The goal – to reap profits in the form of crops to take to market.

Notice that the asset of seeds is important in that the profit will be in the form of crops and

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more seeds. Also note that the asset of seeds left in the barn or not planted in the soil will yield no crop and no profit.

So, just as the farmer, you will invest your assets in the right environment, to reap a profit in kind.

The nature of the asset called money. Amateur

blackjack players think of their money as the tool that will let them play for a minimum length of time. So they bring twenty dollars to the casino and plan to play 20 hands of blackjack. This is fine for the amateur seeking entertainment value, but you will think about money as an asset in a completely different way.

You must first bring enough money to sustain you time at the table, knowing that the house has virtually unlimited funds. A general guideline is to bring a minimum of three-hundred times the maximum bet that you plan to make for a 4 hour period. So if you plan to play the five dollar table and occasionally split pairs or double down (now a ten dollar bet), bring three hundred times the ten dollar bet or $3,000.

The formula is Max Bet x 300 = Stake for 4

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You may live a lifetime and never need that amount of money for a 4 hour session. That is just a general rule based on the likelihood and frequency of cycles. You must first bring enough assets to weather the positive and negative cycles, particularly challenging when your session starts with a deep negative cycle that must be endured. Newly trained educated blackjack players may want to find a two dollar table at a smaller casino and bring $1,200 for a 4 hour session.

Like all business people, the educated

blackjack player will use capital to generate a profit and to cover overhead expenses as well. Even the real estate speculator must cover the overhead expenses of state and local taxes for unimproved land, and must maintain the investment property according to local statutes and ordinances.

The shopkeeper too, must invest capital in products for sale – and at the same time – cover overhead costs of facility, utilities, security, employee payroll, and more.

The educated blackjack player, as well, must use the asset of money to both invest for profit and to pay the overhead expenses as shown below. Profit is the portion of the cycle that is

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above the horizontal line. This represents the positive cycle and will be used by the player to generate extraordinary profit. The portion of the cycle that is below the horizontal line represents overhead that the player must pay to stay in the game.

Shopkeepers pay overhead 24/7 - the blackjack player only when in the game. Still, a cost of doing business.

As the educated blackjack player learns to

invest, he or she looks for the opportunity to increase profits when the positive cycle is apparent. This means that the savvy player will look for opportunities to increase the size of the wager when the cycle is on the top side of the horizontal line. This represents a new or growing cycle that is positive and works for the benefit of the educated blackjack player.

At the same time, the player must make occasional overhead payments. Even in the best

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of positive cycles, the dealer may push or even win a hand now and then. Overhead is just a bill-to-pay to stay in the game.

Before we address the dynamics of an educated player optimizing his or her assets we must consider the two kinds of money.

They are different and the difference is huge. The first type of money is the investment assets that the player brings to the table. The second type of money is what the educated blackjack player calls “house money”.

Remember this: the overall goal of the

educated blackjack player is to invest the maximum amount of house money when a positive cycle has begun and is confirmed.

And this does not mean invest all house

money on the next hand. Good things sometimes take time.

Let’s gather up the list of player advantages

from the earlier chapters. The house makes the rules, but the player has

a tactical advantage that becomes a strategic advantage during a positive cycle – the player determines the size of the wager. This is equally

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important during a negative cycle, but we will work the positive side first. For the positive side, the player also has the strategic advantages of splitting pairs and doubling down. These are huge advantages that the player will use aggressively and effectively during a positive cycle to dramatically optimize the player’s assets.

Add the new goal of investing the maximum amount of house money during a positive cycle and the educated player is now generating maximum profits at zero risk. That sounds a lot like the maximum profit and zero risk that the insurance and financial services industries are looking for.

War story. In the early 1970s at a major casino,

an educated blackjack player sat at a table for an extended period of time – a real marathon. And this was really a long time ago; the table minimum was one dollar! A positive cycle began with most seats at the table filled.

The educated player began to slowly increase the size of his wagers, until he was using only house money – money that he had won at the beginning of the cycle.

Then the educated blackjack player began to


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slowly and systematically increase the size of his wager, until he was at the house limit of $500. Then something wonderful happened – the educated blackjack player did not lose a hand in almost six hours of play. He had the opportunity to split pairs and double down, which house rules allowed. House rules also allowed him to play the double downs by exceeding the table limit of $500. For these winning hands, his bet was authorized at $1,000.

The story is not about our educated blackjack player though. This story is about a very pleasant, middle-aged woman sitting right next to him at the table for the entire positive cycle. The woman stayed there the whole time – for the whole six hours. She made pleasant conversation with the educated player. And, she walked out of the casino with a little over $2,000 at the end of the day.

The woman was betting the minimum – one dollar – on every single hand during a six hour winning streak.

As I slowly peel you off the ceiling, let me

reinforce one thing. The reason for the book Educated Blackjack – the goal if you will – is to prepare every player to optimize his or her assets

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by fully understanding the rules of the game, by minimizing house advantages, and by turning every player tactical and strategic advantage into the highest possible profit, with the lowest risk possible.

So we have a good picture of the objective for

Factor 2 –Money. Combine our knowledge of Factor 1 – Time and proper money management to optimize player assets during the positive cycles: - Bring the right stake to the blackjack session, - Minimize overhead payments (losing hands), - Anticipate the positive cycles (be patient), - Gradually increase the wager (winning hands), - Begin to move house money to player side, - Then, maximize the bet using house money.

And now, let’s rewind the tapes to address the

typical (mediocre) cycle shown in the first histogram. The first histogram illustrates the additional wins and additional losses over time.

Next, let’s modify the same histogram to illustrate proper money management for to cover the overhead and keep the overhead payments at the minimum to preserve player assets (and wait for a positive cycle).


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The original histogram (mediocre) cycle, that delivers a few winning hands and a few losing hands.

And now, the modified original histogram to demonstrate the player’s actions during the losing hands – now represented by “A” for the first series of losing hands during the short negative cycle, and represented by “B” for the second series of losing hands for the next negative cycle.

With each losing hand, the educated blackjack player reduces the next wager to the minimum bet allowed by table limits. This way, the player reduces the overhead payments to the absolute

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minimum. This action preserves player assets – in anticipation of a strong positive cycle. And using the combined strategy – illustrated here – let’s conduct a by-the-numbers review.

To optimize player assets during this

time of a few wins and a few losses, the player will:

- Bring the right stake to the blackjack

session, to allow for continued and extended play for a minimum of 4 hours. The player will use this formula (Max Bet x 300 = Stake for 4 hours) or $3,000 for a 10 dollar max wager that includes split pairs and double downs on a $5 minimum table.

- Minimize overhead payments (losing hands), by wagering the table minimum of $5 after each losing hand. This way, the player preserves assets during the negative cycles shown by “A” and “B”.

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- Anticipate the positive cycles (be patient), and the few winning hands represent a possible new positive cycle that does not continue. Slowly increase the wager after a winning hand, but will reduce the bet to $5 after a loss.

- Gradually increase the wager (winning hands), at the start of the session, in between “A” and “B”, and after “B”. The player anticipates a strong positive cycle (that does not continue),

- Begin to move house money to player side. Continue playing with patience because this run does not produce the strong positive cycle. The strong positive cycle could start at the turn of the next card, or it may be hours away. Continue to play, place $5 bets after losing hands, preserve assets, and be patient.

- Then, maximize the bet using house money. This action is not warranted because the player is waiting for a strong positive cycle before the player will begin to accumulate house money.

Important note on player patience: rookie

gamblers will be tempted to increase their wager

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during extended periods of a few wins and a few losses. They do this because they are getting bored or desperate – and hope that they can guess their next win. Or they bet a large wager hoping that they can catch up or get ahead quickly with one large lucky bet. The problem here is that the rookie is making a speculative wager with their own money, and failing to preserve player assets. Several foolish $100 wagers may be followed by several foolish $200 or $300 wagers to break even or catch up. Result: player assets may be reduced to only 1 or 2 hours of play time.

Let’s compare the foolish wagering or the

rookie with the educated blackjack player’s patience and discipline – and commitment to optimize player assets – as he waits for a strong positive cycle.

The educated player knows that if the same

“win a few, lose a few” pattern continues for 100 hands of blackjack, he can expect the following:

- He will likely lose 52 hands and win 48 hands,

- Losses at the $5 wager will be $260 lost, - Wins at the $5 or $10 wager will be at least


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$240 won (at the lower $5 bet), - The overhead loss amortized over 100

hands is averaged out to $2.60 per hand, - If the player started with a stake of $3,000,

he will still have $2,740 to apply to winning hands, and

- If the current mediocre hand continues with 4 players at the table, knowledgeable casino management estimates 84 hands per hour. This means that the educated player can expect to play for approximately 12.5 hours after the first 100 hands.

Even with extended periods of waiting for a

strong positive cycle, the educated blackjack player (that brought a $3,000 stake for a four hour session), may be able to continue playing for almost 14 hours!

This is the reason that it is so important to

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optimize player assets with a minimum bet following a lost hand – even if the next positive cycle is hours away.

Now that we have illustrated the proper way to the educated blackjack player to optimize player assets – even during extended periods of waiting for a strong positive cycle – we will move to the third and final factor. And, we will combine all three factors (time, money, and human nature) to give the educated blackjack player the full picture.

Factor 3 – Human Nature. The goal here is

to use the elements of cognitive, affective, and behavioral psychology to benefit the player and not the house.

The cognitive element is the thinking process that needs to be reduced to making quick calculations, for both the scoring of a hand, and for knowing the options for drawing cards or standing pat – all to increase player strategic advantage and to minimize player risk. Every economist, business person, and investor knows that decreased risk increases the potential for growth, revenue, profit and return on investment. So, the cognitive element includes knowledge and understanding of the timing of your wagers, the size of the bet, and the more complex decisions


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that include the dealer’s visible card, splitting pairs and doubling down, and the more complex (less automatic) actions to take when the player’s cards are not optimal.

The affective element of human nature is the emotional aspect. Earlier examples described how the insurance and investment communities use emotions to bump customers and investors out with losses. This turns premium payments and investment capital into 100% profit for the financial services industry, and drives business risk to zero. The house rules are designed to slowly bump players out of the game – with the house’s slight advantage. The cycles of the game are used by the house to force bad decisions.

The aspect of human nature that the house

uses during positive or negative cycles is simple to understand. During up cycles, the player “feels” good and thinks clearly about the correct decisions to make – for the basic rules of the game of blackjack. This includes standing pat on hard seventeen or above, splitting aces and eights, and doubling down on ten or eleven. This is particularly easy when the player is drawing good cards. This is made easier when the dealer’s visible card is 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6. The problem with

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human nature during positive cycles is this – the player “feels” good and is not anticipating the eventual strong positive cycle. At the start of a strong positive cycle, the rookie gambler is comfortable and continues making the same bets as before. Think back to the woman who continues to bet one dollar through a six-hour session with a positive cycle.

The emotional aspect works more dramatically against the uneducated player during a negative cycle. The player “feels” badly that the house is taking “his money”. Human nature hates to lose more than it desires to win – so the rookie player starts to increase the size of the wager at exactly the wrong time – to get his money back. The educated blackjack player knows that this is the time to reduce the wager to overhead payments (the table’s minimum bet) and wait patiently for the return of a positive cycle.

Let’s look at cognitive and affective dynamics together.

Cognitive psychology supersedes the affective

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identified earlier in the book and will be addressed now. They are: splitting pairs of twos, threes, fours, sixes, and sevens; and doubling down on soft 12s, 13s, 14s, 15s, 16s, and 17s and hard fours, fives, sixes, sevens, eights, and nines.

The rookie player first. During the extended positive cycle, the rookie will continue to make the “comfortable wager”. His cognitive ability allows him to quickly and easily stand on hard seventeen or better, and reluctantly draw a card if he has 16 or lower and the dealer’s visible card is 7 or better. He also knows the player’s rule to “Split aces and eights”, and knows to double down on 10 or 11 when the dealer’s visible card is two, three, four, five, or six.

His pile of chips is growing, but he is not optimizing Player Assets and is not moving enough of the house’s assets to his side of the table.

The cycle eventually turns to “win a few and lose a few” or to a negative cycle. This is where the rookie begins to deplete is chips. In the worst case, his emotions take over and he begins to hate losing the nice stack of chips that he accumulated in the positive cycle. He is not aware that he did not accumulate enough chips to weather the next cycle.

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The rookie’s emotions call for him to stop the loss by making foolish mistakes. These include “double up to catch up”, and possibly betting on “hunches” to catch up. But the cycle is against him and the house takes more and more of his dwindling stack of chips as he starts doubling his initial bet, and worse, making a $100, $200, or $300 bet at exactly the wrong time.

The educated blackjack player next. She is

sitting at the same table, unable to comprehend what the rookie is doing. During the same positive cycle, the educated player recognizes that the long-awaited positive cycle is here. She begins to increase her wager with each winning hand – slowly at first – then adding more and more house money that she won on the recent hands. She logically and confidently adds more and more house money to each wager with the goal of making table limit bets on every hand now – with 100% house money on every wager. The rookie looks over and shakes his head – assuming that she is wild and reckless and will soon make the wrong move and lose everything.

The positive cycle ends. Unlike the rookie, the educated blackjack player immediately backs off and starts to make minimum table limit bets –


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overhead payments – to stay in the game for as long as it takes for the tides to turn. She has accumulated a mountain of chips – mostly house money – that will allow her to continue playing for as long as it takes.

At this point, the educated blackjack player

subordinates her emotions and allows her cognitive understanding of the game to take over. Unlike the emotional rookie who is desperate now, the educated player has become a “machine”. She automatically and unemotionally places the minimum wager after every losing hand. The combination of her cognitive understanding of the positive cycle, combined with her mastery over her emotional side will allow her to continue playing for 14 more hours or longer.

Remember, the house’s goal is to bump both players out of the game with losses.

Long after the rookie went bust or took his losses and left, the educated blackjack player is still at the table. She is unemotionally making overhead payments (table minimum bets) until the next positive cycle starts. When it does, she will attack with the same resolve that optimizes player assets.

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Let’s use this same blackjack session to introduce the behavioral aspect of human nature. Our educated player experienced a 20 hand winning run about an hour ago. Her sixth and seventh hands were “blackjacks” – for which she was paid one and a half to one. All remaining 12 winning hands were bet at the table max limit of $500 – all house money. Her cognitive abilities were unimpaired and she had held her affective (emotional) side in check for the past hour – just waiting patiently.

Her cognitive side told her that this positive

cycle would end as abruptly as it began, so the goal was to optimize player assets as aggressively as possible. She also knew that she was “topped out” with her $500 bets – table limit. She also saw that most of her casino chips were now changed in color from red, blue, yellow, and green – to black. With her emotional side under control, she began to make a series of decisions that both disturbed and amazed the new players at the table.

On the eighth hand the dealer, in the midst of a losing streak, dealt the educated player a soft seventeen (ace and six). The dealer’s visible card was a six, so the educated player automatically


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doubled down (house rules allowed it) and won as the dealer hit a hard sixteen and then drew a ten to bust.

The ninth hand was easy, and included a bonus. The educated player was dealt two aces, and the dealer’s visible card was a ten. The educated player split the aces and was dealt only one card on top of each ace. The first ace drew another ace, which was split again. The educated player drew a 10 and a king for the first two aces (not “blackjacks”, but scored as 21). The new ace drew a six for a soft seventeen. The educated player paused, then doubled down on the soft seventeen and drew the last ace for a soft eighteen. The dealer flipped his hidden card (a five) and drew another ten to bust with 25.

When the dust settled, the money on the table

was now $1,000 for the first ace, $1,000 for the second ace, and $2,000 for the third ace that was double downed. The educated blackjack player started a little more than 4 hours ago with a $3,000 stake and a boatload of confidence and patience. This positive cycle was exactly what she was looking for and she drew back $3,500 in winnings from the single hand, and left $500 on the table for her next bet.

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The rookie was long gone. She didn’t know it until later, but the educated

blackjack player would win the next eleven hands before the positive cycle ended.

She maintained her composure, took a deep breath, and took several actions that confused and bewildered the rest of the players over the next 15 minutes.

On hand number ten the dealer’s visible card was a six, and the educated player has two 2s. She split the twos, and drew a nine and an eight. She then doubled down on both and won as the dealer turned the ten and hit hard sixteen with a nine to bust with 25. She rakes back $1,500 and left $500 for the next hand.

The unlucky dealer’s next hand showed a visible three, and the player has a soft 12. She doubled down on the soft 12 and drew an eight for 20. The dealer flipped a seven for 10, and then drew a six, and then another ten to bust with 26.

The dealer shuffled and offered the cut to our

heroine. Her next hand was a “blackjack” and she

mused “I’d rather split pairs and double down.” On the 13th hand (unlucky for the house) she


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got her wish. The dealer’s visible card was a four, and the player had a pair of sixes. The spilt the sixes and drew a three for the first and a five for the second. She doubled down on both, and drew an ace for the six – making a soft seventeen. She hit the soft seventeen and drew a five for a hard twelve. She doubled down on the six that drew a five and got a ten for 21. The dealer flipped a ten, for hard fourteen, and drew and eight to bust with 22.

The educated player’s behavioral component seemed erratic and nonsensical to several of the fellow players and onlookers. One said to another “Look, she just hit a soft seventeen when the dealer had a four showing. The book says to stand pat.”

The educated player just smiled. In time, the positive cycle ended and the

educated blackjack player reverted to overhead payments of $5. As she patiently reflected on past games and hands, she had seen everything and taken many of these behavioral actions herself. We refer to the special options of splitting pairs of twos, threes, fours, sixes, and sevens; and doubling down on soft 12s, 13s, 14s, 15s, 16s, and 17s and hard fours, fives, sixes, sevens, eights, and nines.

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She easily recalled splitting pairs of twos, threes, fours, sixes, and sevens when the cycle of the game was positive and the dealer’s visible card spelled disaster for the house. She used caution not to be overly aggressive in the midst of a flat or negative cycle. As for doubling down on soft 12s, 13s, 14s, 15s, 16s, and 17s – that also depended on the flow of the game and the dealer’s visible card. For the positive cycles she knew that she could improve her hand if she doubled down on a soft 12 through 17 – they were, after all, “soft”. If the cycle was positive, and her next draw was not ideal, she could draw a second card if prudence dictated so. As for the behavior of doubling down on hard fours, fives, sixes, sevens, eights, and nines – she had doubled on all of these at one time of another – when conditions dictated. For now, she was in the slow and steady mode of making $5 maintenance payments – just waiting.

All the new players have been replaced many

times over and the educated blackjack player has been at the table for more than twelve hours. She maintained her energy and mental alertness by taking several bio breaks and by chugging a protein shake at the restaurant.


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Men and women in evening wear began to drop by the table to play a hand or two. Usually just standing behind the seat – on their way to dinner or a show.

The protein shake gave her a boost, but that

was an hour ago. She was at about twelve and a half hours and ordered a Coke “Regular, not diet.” This would get her to the fourteen hour point – her new time limit for the day.

She had been here before – many times. On numerous occasions she just kept making overhead payments until she turned into a pumpkin. On more than one occasion, quitting time came and went because she was in the middle of a positive cycle and was determined to stay put, drinking the occasional Coke, and optimizing player assets. One time, after a sixteen hour session that ended with a three hour positive cycle, she left exhausted and slept for two days. It was worth it.

One time, she was invited to speak at

University of Nevada Las Vegas, by the Department of Psychology (imagine that). The Department was hosting a three day conference on the Psychology of Gaming – and sponsored

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by the State of Nevada Gaming Commission. Some students at the University had heard about this professional woman who would spend hours at the blackjack table – and actually win. She had even won a “golden hands” award from one of the larger casinos for breaking some long held record for winning hands at blackjack.

The conference organizer figured out who she

was and found her name in the local directory. How often does that happen these days? The organizer called her up and left a voicemail message. Within a day, the educated blackjack player returned the call. “I’d love to come to the conference, but I don’t know what I would say to the attendees,” she confessed.

The organizer assured her that she would be on a panel, and would respond to questions about gambling and gamblers – questions from students, scientists, educators, and science. Looks like gaming is mainstream, now she thought. “We will cover your registration fee – since you are a presenter – and you can attend the banquet at the end of the second day,” she said. “And also, we will have the panel organizer help you put together a short bio,” she added.

Sounds like fun.


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“Okay, I’ll do it.” “Thanks so much. I know that you will enjoy

the conference, and the attendees will love to hear about your experiences.”

The call ended with an exchange of phone numbers and e-mail addresses. The educated blackjack player went to the closet to dig out an old cardboard box – a shoebox full of notes and gambling memorabilia. She lifted the dusty lid and saw the thin paperback simply titled Blackjack that she bought from the Gambler’s Book Club in Las Vegas. I think it cost a dollar! The “golden hands” certificate was still rolled up – never got a chance to frame it. An almost empty pack of Antony y Cleopatra cigarillos, completely dried out; and the touristy shot glass from Caesar’s and the pair of red “lucky dice” reminded her of the game that she had not played in years.

And then, she found it, the stack of Keno tickets – maybe 15 or twenty – folded in half - and with her own writing in black ink on the back. A black plastic hair claw with two broken teeth held the pages together. The tickets were turning brown around the edges and the paper crackled, like an ancient manuscript from the Dead Sea Scrolls. She took her treasure to the kitchen table and spread out the sheets in order –

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she had numbered the pages long ago. With a fresh cup of joe, and the pride of being

invited to speak at a national conference, she began to refresh her memory. I at least need to give these people something interesting to think about!. She majored in journalism, but had taken a few psych classes along the way – General Psychology and the Psychology of Learning. She tried to sign up for the Abnormal Psychology course at the college back east, but it was full. She liked the ‘edgy” classes – more interesting sometimes. Let’s start with the outline. The University Counseling Center would no doubt cover the topic of “Gambling Addiction”. She would leave that subject alone, and focus on the psyche of the individual player.

She wanted to present gambling as a popular

form of entertainment for some, and a disciplined vocational career for some – like her late Uncle Billy. Uncle Billy was a quintessential Midwestern cowboy – from Minnesota – a real Sam Elliott character. Her uncle would visit her as a child and bring two packages of marshmallows – the ones with the toasted coconut shavings. Uncle Billy recommended that his niece bring one bag of


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marshmallows along for particularly long cattle drives. “They provide comfort for both horse and rider,” he would say. Uncle Billy also gave her a gift of an old rabbit’s foot – one that he had as a child. He showed his niece how he singed the fur with his lighter – this would make the rabbit’s foot “extra lucky”. This rabbit escaped from a grass wildfire.

On her twenty-first birthday, Uncle Billy flew in to celebrate his favorite niece’s coming of age. He also had a mission – to pass along a few family secrets that he learned long ago. When cake, candles, and ice cream time was over, Uncle Billy took his niece to the side and asked “Want to find out what I really do for a living?” She nodded. “Let’s go then,” he said.

The drive to the Native casino was familiar. She had seen a few shows there with the family, but not with Uncle Billy. Uncle Billy’s show was about to begin.

Uncle Billy walked in like he owned the place.

His niece was sure that her uncle touched the brim of his Stetson as he passed a woman in an evening gown. Billy was like that – old school. A sharp dressed man was headed right toward us, wearing a big smile. The casino manager

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welcomed Uncle Billy back and it was introduction time. “We need to roll out the red carpet for this little lady,” he said “Today’s her birthday.” The casino manager motioned slightly with his left hand. Two impeccably-dressed staff members sporting casino blazers with an emblem approached. The nodded to the manager and said “Welcome to the casino, and happy birthday.”

The five of us walked to the far end of the casino where we left most or the noise from the jangling slots behind us. Then, up a set of marble steps that were guarded by another staff member and an armed security guard. We’re in the club. Uncle Billy shook hands with the manager and we were escorted into a room that looked like it belonged in a Greek or Roman temple. The inside was bigger that I thought it would be. We approached the lounge area that included a bar with two tuxedoed bartenders behind it, no other customers, and comfortable chairs and tables that looked like they belonged in a high-class legal firm. Marble, glass, and oak resting on huge Persian rugs. “Seven mountain flowers, I think, with dusty rose and sea-foam green.”

As I pointed to the high-roller table games,

Uncle Billy said “First, the Method.” A staff


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member handed Billy a stack of Keno tickets and my uncle said “Let’s sit here,” – as he pulled my chair back for me.

Uncle Billy drew a turquoise money clip from his jacket and peeled off a Benjamin. A staff member brought us a stack of $5 chips. Uncle Billy began talking about the “flow” of the game of blackjack. He said that he would show me how to play the game, but wanted me to understand the basic movement of chips on the table. He had four stacks of chips in front of him and slid one chip toward me. He described the possibility of the player losing the chip, or doubling her money on the turn of a card.

He did this without any cards. Then he put a second chip on top of the chip already in the middle of the table and described a foolish gambler “throwing good money after bad”.

Everything that he said made sense, but I was definitely at square one. Then he started to talk about “streaks”. It was clear that Uncle Billy knew what he meant by a “lucky streak” and a “losing streak”.

Blackjack is a game of patience, he told me. “You hafta wait, and you hafta wait patiently,” he said. “And, you hafta know what you’re waiting for,” he added. I nodded. “Let’s practice,” he

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said. Still no cards. He gave me half the chips. “Bet one,” he said, pointing to the middle of the table. I obeyed, pushing a chip forward.

“Now, you lose,” he said as he took the chip and gave it back to me. “Now bet again, but only one – you are in a losing streak.” I pushed the same chip forward. “You lose again,” he said as he took the chip, then gave it back again. Then he looked at me adoringly and asked “Any questions on what to do when you’re in a losing streak?”

“Bet one chip,” I responded and smiled. Uncle Billy slapped his knee and roared “Never forget it!” I reached for a pen to write it down.

“We’ll write later,” he said. “Just remember that one.”

Next, he lined the chips in a straight line between us, on the table – from left to right. He looked at me and said “Watch this.” Then he pointed to each chip in sequence and said “Lose, Win, Lose, Win, Lose, Lose, Win, Lose, Lose, Win, Lose, Lose, Lose, Win, Lose, Win, Lose, Win, Lose, Win.” Then he looked at me and asked a question and answered it himself without interruption. “What do you bet if you have a win again, lose again pattern? You bet one chip, that’s what you do!” he said. “Never forget that one either.”


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A uniformed staff member brought us two Cokes on fancy coasters. “Power up,” Uncle Billy said looking at me, as he offered me his glass in a toast.

“Final lesson,” he said, then we play.” He pulled all twenty chips together and built a small ramp – like a miniature set of stairs in the middle of the table.

The first step was one chip, the second step

was two, the third step was three steps and so on. He had five steps and five chips left over. He dug in his pocket for a sliver dollar, and made a sixth step – crowned with a silver dollar.

Then the quiz. “After you win a hand, you need to know what to do next,” he said. “So after you win a hand, how much do you bet the next time?” he asked pointing to the first step with the single chip.

“One!” I blurted out, knowing I had nailed it. “Right!” he exclaimed, “And let me tell you

why.” “Two wins in a row does not a lucky streak make,” he added. He said things like that a lot. “You won the last hand,” he said pointing his left thumb to the left, “And you won this hand,” he said pointing his right index finger at the single chip – the first step. “You won two chips,” he

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said. “One for you and one to add to your next bet,” he said pointing to the second step – the one with two chips.

“So guess how much you’re gonna bet now?” he asked still pointing at the second step with two chips.

“Two.” “Okay, and if you win, what will you bet

next?” he asked pointing at the third step and smiling at me.

“Three!” “Right, and you win that bet.” He moved his

finger to the fourth step. “Four!” I shouted. This is easy! “Win!” he said, moving his finger to the fifth

step. “Five!” “Win!” he said with his finger on the silver

dollar on the top of the sixth step. “Six,” I yelled to the bartenders and the staff. “Done!” he said, and gave me the silver dollar. What happened next was a blur. After we got

up, Uncle Billy tossed the bartenders chips for the drinks and left two more on the table for the person that brought us the Cokes. Then we left the temple of Apollo and returned to where the


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slots chimed and where the mere mortals played cards and rolled dice. Uncle Billy spotted the casino manager – standing by a blackjack table with empty seats and a dealer poised for action. A “Reserved” sign was on the table.

“Sit here,” Uncle Billy said, pointing at the last chair on the left. “That’s Third Base, the best seat in the house.”

I sat while Uncle Billy stood behind me and peeled more Benjamins from his money clip. The dealer took them and delivered a small mountain of $5 red chips.

“What do you bet?” Uncle Billy said. I pushed a single chip into the circle in front of

me. The dealer was unconscious. Two cards were

in front of me already – face up. And the dealer had one card up, the other hidden. With a flash that I didn’t quite follow, the dealer took my chip.

“What do you bet?” Uncle Billy repeated. I pushed another single chip forward. The

dealer took that chip too. The process continued, and I bet one chip for

the longest time. A couple of times, I won two in a row, and Uncle Billy watched me bet two chips for the next hand. That’s more than a movie

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ticket. Then something happened. I won two in a

row, then I won the next. “What do you bet?” asked Uncle Billy. “Three,” I said. “Right,” he said. Then he sat in the empty seat

next to me. Everyone knew the table was off limits.

I won again. Uncle Billy showed me how to take back two chips and add the third to the original stack of three – to make four chips.

The winning continued. I got it. Somehow Uncle Billy’s easy seminar taught me everything I needed to know about betting chips – win or lose.

The dealer dealt me two aces. Billy said “Split ‘em”. I thought he was telling me what to do – but the dealer quickly split the aces as Uncle Billy put a second stack of chips next to the second ace. I noticed that the color of the chips had changed a while back.

The winning continued, and Uncle Billy asked the dealer for “an empty rack.” Uncle Billy should have been helping me bet chips, but instead, he was too busy stacking and arranging chips by color in the rack that was brought to the table.

Somehow, I knew exactly what to do. I had


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lost track of the value of the chips, but I knew to keep making the stack of chips taller – using the same color chips – after each win. They brought another rack.

Then it happened. I had a stack of about 15 black chips in the circle. The dealer gave me a ten and a three. The dealer had an ace showing and asked “Insurance?” Uncle Billy shook his head and the dealer flipped the bottom card, a king. The dealer had a blackjack. The dealer took my stack.

Uncle Billy looked at me and asked “What do you bet?”

“One!” I responded. “Right!” he shouted. “But we are done for

tonight.” He tossed the dealer two black chips. We scooped up the racks and the loose chips

and Uncle Billy said “Follow me.” We walked through the casino toward a sign that said “Cashier.”

Where did all the people go. I looked around for a clock, but there aren’t

any. Not in a casino at least. Then, Uncle Billy asked a question and

answered it. “Guess what time it is?” he asked. “Almost 3 AM.”

I was blown away. It seemed like it took 15

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minutes. But come to think of it, it kind of felt like 3 AM. I was exhausted walking out of the casino and into the night air to the car.

The next morning school was in session. Uncle

Billy was up, talking to my parents - sipping java. I grabbed an empty cup, Uncle Billy poured,

and said “Let’s sit at the kitchen table.” He had the blank Keno tickets from last night. I didn’t know it at the time, but he had also contacted my University financial office earlier that morning. He made an advanced payment for tuition, room, and board for my upcoming senior year of college. I think that my parents knew.

The school bell rang, and Uncle Billy talked and I wrote on the back of the Keno tickets with a Sharpie. Most of the time he looked up at the ceiling, as if he was selecting his words from a pick-list in the air. Occasionally, he would look down at my pen moving across the next Keno ticket, to make sure that I wrote down a critical point that was just made.

I looked down most of the time, filling up the back of one Keno ticket and reaching for the next. I numbered them as I went. Unlike last night’s tutorial, there is no way I could have


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remembered all the points that Uncle Billy was making this morning – I’m glad I took notes. And on review, the notes made sense. This is what I wrote down:

You are playing blackjack. Place the minimum bet,

one chip, for the first hand. You will be winning and losing hands. Ignore the amount that you are winning or losing, but keep betting the minimum after each losing hand. If you win, lose, win, lose, win, lose you will need to keep betting the minimum, one chip. Be prepared to keep betting one chip until the cows come home.

“Cows?” I interrupted.

Just be ready to sit there and bet the table minimum forever. You want to play at the dollar table, but you may have to wait to get a seat. You may want to go the casino early on a Saturday when the parents are taking the kids to play soccer and baseball. Get there about 5AM to beat the crowds. Never go Saturday night, too crowded. Don’t cut class to play blackjack. Bring this when you go. Don’t spend it, it’s for blackjack.

He handed me a roll of bills held together with a rubber band. It was smaller than his money clip. I put the roll in my pocket.

Bring the whole roll to the casino when you play. When

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you get there use this formula to get chips. Sit at the $1 table, double that (2 dollars) and multiply it by 300 (600 dollars). Next time you go, get $600 dollars in chips, and get plenty of $1 chips. You are gonna bet the minimum. If you just hold your own, you will be able to play for at least 4 hours, so eat a good breakfast. Just sit at the table and pay rent - $1 a hand until something happens. Don’t change tables. If you have to go to the bathroom, leave your chips at the table to save your seat. Keep the roll in your handbag. If you go to the bathroom and are hungry, get a quick protein shake “to go” at the restaurant. Drink it on the way back to your seat. That should hold you for the rest of the session. Plan to play for four hours total, but be ready to play “overtime” if you are in the middle of a lucky streak. Don’t leave the table until the lucky streak is over.

Uncle Billy looked at my Keno ticket to make sure that I was getting it all. I was.

“Okay,” he said. “Write down Method 1 and underline it.” He looked down to make sure that I did it right. “Good,” he said, then he continued.

Method 1 – treat each losing hand and any lost hand as the beginning of a long losing streak and make your next bet at the table minimum, one dollar, one chip. The reason that you bet the minimum is that you are just paying “rent” at the table and waiting for the losing streak to turn to a lucky streak. It could take a long time. It may


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never happen. Just pay rent. While you wait for a lucky streak, you want to pay the minimum in rent, and keep as many of your chips as possible. You’ll need ‘em later. Last night, you learned to bet the minimum, one chip, and any time you lost a hand. If you win a hand, but on chip again, just like you did last night. By doing this you can play for about an hour, and expect to pay between $8 and $10 with a full table – all seats filled. If there is nobody else at your table, you may end up paying $15 to $20 in rent and that is okay too. If you get into a wicked losing streak, you may pay more. Between $40 and $50 and that’s okay too. You will still be able to hang in there for another three hours. I will give you a copy of a book to study. It tells you how to play cards and draw extra cards to get the best hand possible. Just read the book and learn the time to draw cards and the time to stand pat. The book also tells you when to split pairs and double down.

“Just write that down, I’ll help you practice playing your hand, and practice splitting pairs and doubling down,” he said. “Write Method 2, and underline it.”

Method 2 – The only way that you can win big is by accumulating more chips than you started with. And the chips that you want to win are the house’s chips – “house money”. When the table turns you will know it, you saw that last

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night. You won two hands in a row and added another chip to your next bet. You could have lost that bet, and may in the future. But you also saw the lucky streak continue – last night. And that’s what you are waiting for – waiting patiently. As you increase your bet, you are also pulling back chips to build you stack of chips back up. The most important thing that you are doing though, is you are starting to bet against the house with “house money”. If the lucky streak continues, your third, fourth, and fifth hands are mostly house money. Once you draw back chips to cover your rent, the remaining bets are house money. I numbered the keno ticket and started on a new one. So, Method 1 is paying rent to stay in the game. Method 2 is using house money when a lucky streak hits. The best part about a lucky streak is that you are winning against the house with house money – after you pay yourself back for rent payments. The reason that you play blackjack at all is to stay in the game until a lucky streak hits. You saw the benefit last night. And, you saw how long it too to hit the lucky streak – and it was worth it. The third good thing about the lucky streak – if it goes long enough – is that you are winning without risking your own money – you are betting risk free.


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“Ready for Method 3?” he asked. I nodded and wrote down “Method 3” and underlined it. Method 3 is the way to increase the amount that you win, with no risk to you. You saw that last night. The book that I will give you tells you when to split pairs and double down. You will follow these rules – even when paying rent – but the book will show you when you can be more aggressive. Last night you saw what happened when we split pairs and doubled down during a good lucky steak. You even saw the big win with house money, when we split the aces and doubled the bet before the dealer busted. The book will tell you how to double down and some house rules allow you to split pairs and then double down. Sounds risky, but when this happens during a lucky streak, the dealer has a lousy hand, and you are betting with house money the risk is zero – nada. When I see these opportunities I’m all over it like a bad suit – splitting pairs, doubling down, and even splitting pairs then doubling down if the situation is right. I’ll get you that book.

“Time for Method 4” he said. I was running out of Keno tickets and looking around for the napkin holder.

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Method 4 is a way to double or triple your winnings, once you have learned everything that we covered - up to now. Once a lucky streak starts and continues, make sure that you have paid yourself back for rent and started accumulating a lot of house money. If the lucky streak continues, and spaces are available, you can start playing two or three hands with every deal of the cards by placing bets on two or three positions on the table. You may need to adjust your seat to do this. If the table is full, play Third Base and try to play the open spot next to Third Base as well. You never want to play multiple positions when you are just paying rent, though. You only play multiple positions when you are at the point when you are winning like crazy with house money!

“And that’s it,” he said. “For now at least.” “Autograph?” I asked, handing Uncle Billy the

last keno ticket and the pen. “You bet!” he said as he inscribed his first

name with a big sweeping cursive, and added a hyphenated subtitle “- your favorite uncle.”

How true! I carefully arranged the Keno tickets and

folded the stack in half. Then, I scrounged around in the kitchen drawer – and found the hair claw that sealed the precious manuscript.

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5 THE CONFERENCE

Okay, it’s outline time. Someone at the university had already

submitted the abstract and was selected to write a paper. They were more interested in setting up a panel discussion and Q&A for the conference attendees – much better than reading their paper from the podium.

Good idea. The paper that was accepted had something to

do with the psychological profile of a Las Vegas gambler. I was pleased to learn that the research findings showed that gamblers represent a normal segment of the population. Good; I reject the hypothesis that gamblers harbor anti-social tendencies and are prone to self-destructive behavior. Uncle Billy showed me that there is a

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science to gambling – a method or a process – that educated players can use to make smart decisions that result in a positive outcome for the disciplined player.

The author of the paper needed to assemble a

panel of credible professionals that could present an objective view of gambling – a little science, a little strategy – in a way that would offer the conference attendees something new and interesting.

One of the panel members had been researching the demographics of the typical Las Vegas gambler. This covered the research-based aspect of the typical visitor who flew in on Friday, stayed at the Bellagio for two nights, and flew home on Sunday afternoon. I think they got a lot of their data from the Las Vegas Economic Development Office and the Tourism and Trade Bureau. That base is covered.

One of the panel members was an out-of-towner. A card mechanic from Dallas that had been doing demonstrations all week at his booth in the exhibit hall. Passers-by were absolutely mesmerized by his ability to deal any card in the deck. He could deal any hand on request – take a fully shuffled and cut deck – and deal the


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conference attendees any hand they wanted. Four aces, royal flush, anything. His role on the panel was not to demonstrate card tricks for 2,000 members of the audience. Rather, he was going to cover how cheaters cheat, and how they are caught. Fascinating stuff, I saw a show about that once on Discovery channel.

Another panel member – an attorney, I think – was presenting on the recent legislative changes in the State of Nevada. Something about tax law changes that would favor the gaming industry. I don’t thing that subject will draw a lot of questions from the audience.

There were a few other panel members – a statistician, an insurance actuary – not sure what they are going to present.

An English professor once told me “If you have trouble developing a theme for your paper – write a comparison.” Write a comparison of something that people are familiar with and introduce a topic that is new. I did not need a paper – that was already written and accepted. What I really needed was a good idea – I’ll introduce myself as a professional person – one that does not fit the typical stereotype of a gambler.

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The folding tables and chairs were arranged on the stage. A black tablecloth was clipped to the table and blocked the audience’s view of the panel members legs and feet – simple but effective. Three pitchers of water, eight empty glasses. A Steinway parked at stage left. The lights were aimed at the stage and very bright – too bright. They reminded me of being on stage in The Man of La Mancha back in high school.

The audience was very hard to see with the

bright lights shining in my eyes. I knew where to focus my gaze though, and knew to pick out a few members of the audience that I could see, and could make eye contact with during my presentation.

I love going to national conferences and

symposia for my day job, but only if I am presenting a paper or giving a keynote address. I never go just to sit and listen.

The best time to present a paper or a keynote is on day two of a three-day conference, or day two or three of a four-day conference. Never on the first day, never on the last day. Find out when the banquet is, usually the night before the last day.


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I lucked out. The panel had been set months ago for day two, with that banquet this evening. Perfect. My luck only extended so far though – I was added to the panel last, so I would introduce myself and speak last. Depending on the energy level of my fellow panel members, the audience could be brain dead by the time I get my hands on them.

The good news it that I have a deep understanding of my subject matter – I just hoped that my material will be as interesting to them as it is to me.

I was a fan of General Dwight Eisenhower who said “Plans are nothing, planning is everything.” I needed a “hook” and I got one, I also had a client at an Air Force Base in the next state that owed me a favor. He sent me unclassified footage of the Air Force’s F-22 Raptor flying a “Top Gun” style mission with a wide angle camera in the cockpit! The conference video guy worked at the University TV station and was available to presenters – that’s me. I asked him to do me a favor. “That’s my job,” he said.

He understood the challenge – I needed a “wake up” video to restart the hearts of 2,000 conference attendees that would be close to death

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following the review of Gaming legislation that was being prepared for the State lawmakers – 30 slides, talking head, lights out.

A few days later, he called and said “I’ve got it.”

He could barely contain himself as he handed the CD to me, grinning widely. Its not my longest production, but it’s the best. “You’ll have their full attention,” he said and was right.

As advertised, he was in the video booth to ensure smooth transitions, lights, video, volume – everything. He edited the footage to run two and a half minutes, and he knew to boost the volume in the presentation hall, and to pipe the audio into the exhibit hall. He mixed the footage with REO Speedwagon’s “Roll With the Changes”. When I was “up” he would dim the arena lights to black, and start the show. REO Speedwagon had a ten second lead to clear the exhibit hall, the lounge, and the bathrooms before the screen lit up and the Raptor started its takeoff roll.

The audience awoke and started to vibrate – something like an audible “wave” that started in different sections of the presentation hall and rippled across the floor. Men in suits and women in heels were sprinting out of the exhibit hall, bursting out of the lounges and bathrooms – into


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the auditorium to find out what the hell was going on.

The video and audio tapered off as the house

and stage lights came up. I had their attention and momentum was on my side. My presentation was designed to convey information that they would never forget. I had the technical angle already covered. My minute and a half speech would make Uncle Billy proud.

I took the microphone and stepped forward

on stage – away from the table. I smiled as the applause died down, and waved to the audio booth that was high above the balcony. I was nearly blind because of the lights, but I knew where it was.

“I want to thank our audio man and his crew from the University – wasn’t that great?” Applause.

“I also want to thank the guys flying the jets. Don’t you feel safe?” Applause.

I introduced myself and the countdown started. I knew that Uncle Billy made a huge impact on me by imbedding the memory of “what to do” on my twenty-first birthday. The straight line of casino chips on the table, the little

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staircase of casino chips and one silver dollar. When it came to the technical stuff, Uncle Billy’s response was “Later.”

I drew a comparison between the typical life of a Raptor pilot and the serious gambler. To the outsider, both convey a life of glitz and glamour, parties and limos, pretty girls and handsome men.

“In reality, you all know that both experience

long stretches of boredom – just waiting – then moments of sheer panic that may last seconds or minutes. Sometimes for an hour or more.”

“The goal of the professional gambler – just like the pilot – is to prepare for those moments of sheer panic. Learn everything about the trade craft, study in depth, then practice, practice, practice.”

Uncle Billy joined the conference on the screen behind me. A waist-up, Marlboro Man shot, moustache, leather, and Stetson – 40 feet by 60 feet on the screen. A rugged background scene. Incredibly credible.

“Everything that I learned about professional gambling, I learned from my dear Uncle Billy.”

“You have to wait, and wait patiently,” I told them. “Uncle Billy taught me that.”

“Just sit at the table and pay rent. And keep


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paying rent – no hunches, no speculation – until your lucky streak hits.”

“When it hits, go to work. Ply your trade craft. Follow the rules. Slowly increase the size of your bets – always pulling some back to build up your war chest. Split those pairs, double down, and move as much house money to your side of the table as possible until you hit the table limit – then gamble with no risk using 100% house money.”

I paused for effect at one minute and 10 seconds into my speech. The audience was completely silent.

I did not invite questions like the other panel

members did. There was no time for questions – the panel session was out of time. I still had them in the palm of my hand.

“Oh, and one more thing,” I said. “There are

1,000 copies of Uncle Billy’s book out in the lobby. A donation to the conference from the Gambler’s Book Club of Las Vegas. Free of charge.”

I paused. “Go get ‘em.”

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The crowed erupted in noise and movement as the audio crew restarted the REO Speedwagon track. Just the audio. I looked back at the thunder-struck panel members sitting at the table behind me. Then, I walked off stage to get dressed for the banquet.

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6 THE ENVELOPE

Weeks earlier, I stopped by the Gambler’s Book Club on a hunch. The kind that Uncle Billy would approve of.

I walked in carrying the dog-eared blackjack book that Uncle Billy had given me years ago – on my birthday. I knew that the books were published here, but I suspected one thing more.

I asked for the print shop manager, who brushed off his apron with both hands and extended his ink-stained hand with a broad smile. For a moment, he reminded me of Billy. I introduced myself and he said “Pleased to meet you at last, young lady.”

At last? “Got ‘em right here,” he said as he walked us

to the storage room and pulled back a heavy blue

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tarp. “These have been waiting for you – and this note, too.”

He handed me a white envelope that had turned yellow with age. I peeked behind him at the pallet of shrink-wrapped paperbacks – looked like about 25 to the pack.

“These were published back in 1977, first edition – only edition,” he added. “We’ve kept them here – until today that is. Billy wanted you to have ‘em.”

I choked back the emotion as the manager helped me load the books into the trunk of my car. Forty-two packs, about a thousand – maybe a few more. The shrink wrap on some of the packs was cracked and some of the books spilled out. I scooped them up and put them in my gym bag.

I gave the manager a copy and sped off into the setting sun.

Gotta get ready for the banquet, I thought, as I wiped away a tear.


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ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Francis E. McIntire’s first book, Educated Blackjack, was published in 1977 for distribution in the United States and England. From 1983 until 2000 he published instruction manuals and technical manuals for use by the U.S. military for education and training, for organizational development, and for implementing technical systems for government and commercial clients. In 2000, Mr. McIntire published Full Ride, which was widely distributed to parents of children desiring to attend one of the five U.S. service academies. In 2004, he published a three-part series in Military Installation Excellence that included the subtitles Program Management, Project Reporting, and Strategic Planning. In 2012, Educated Blackjack was released in the second edition and expanded to include a novella, and Full Ride was published as a second edition. The complete novel Anarchist was published at the end of 2012 for submission in an international breakout novel contest. Also in 2012, work began on what would become a complete set in the Anarchist series. The original novel was published as volume 1, Anarchist, and subtitled The Unveiling. Prior to the release of volumes two through six, Mr. McIntire conducted extensive research on a novel that would be based on heroism and exemplary character in the U.S. military.

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McIntire is a 1974 graduate of the U.S. Air Force Academy, a management consultant, a U.S. Air Force fighter pilot, and an Assistant Professor of Behavioral Sciences and Leadership at the U.S. Air Force Academy. He led USAF operations in Europe and for NATO, as Chief of Operations, Quality Assurance, and the Functional Check Flight Branch at Royal Air Force Upper Heyford in the United Kingdom. As Deputy Commander and Deputy Director for Air Force Quality Assurance, Frank directed the efforts of the 80-person global consulting agency for organizational development and business transformation worldwide. As Manager with KPMG Peat Marwick LLP, he led the business process reengineering, organizational development and business transformation efforts for DoD and commercial clients. In 2000, Frank launched a service disabled veteran-owned small business that has grown to more than $32 million in annual sales at the time of publication.

Clients include KPMG and Oracle Corp., the Department of Defense, the Department of Veterans Affairs, the Department of Health and Human Services, the U.S. Intelligence Community, and the Alaska Native Community providing secure network communications and cyber security for global accounts.


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Frank is a pioneer in the genre of fictional biographies and develops fictional biographs for a wide range of clients. They include Alaska Native tribal leaders and family members, captains of industry, military leaders, inspirational leaders, and leaders in education, politics, and religion. Frank was raised Roman Catholic and has a deep respect for all faiths, people groups, traditions, and history. Frank was a resident of the State of Nevada from 1976 to 1996.

Frank earned his Master of Science degree

from Vanderbilt University at the Peabody College, and developed the ‘secret sauce’ for implementing operational test program management, and technical program management for DoD, the Alaska Native Community, the US Intelligence Community, and other commercial and government customers in more than 150 locations worldwide. Frank can be reached at (719) 651-7746 or at [email protected].

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Copies of this and other books may be ordered by contacting: Francis E. McIntire at [email protected] More than 75 published works include:

Educated Blackjack, 1977 1st ed. (Collector’s Ed, $125.00) Educated Blackjack, 2nd ed. with novella, 1st ed. ($8.00) Accelerated Revenue, series ($8.00 each) Amazing Leaders, series ($8.00 each) Anarchist, Vol. 1 – 12 ($8.00 each) Cybersecurity, series ($8.00 each) Free Church, series (free electronic copies) Full Ride – Service Academy Scholarships, ($8.00 each) Infinite, Vol. 1 – 8 ($8.00 each) Mechanics of Wealth, ($8.00 each) Military Installation Excellence, Vol. 1 - 6 ($8.00 each) Monty Post, series ($8.00 each) Synergy Worldwide, series ($8.00 each) Technology Integration, series ($8.00 each) The Rosie Network, series ($8.00 each) The Shape of Business, series ($8.00 each) Winning, series ($8.00 each) Volume discounts for Alaska Native Writers Guild and the Alaska Native Artists Guild (shareholders and family). Contact Frank for free-to-share electronic books available for research, education, training, and advancement of Native American and Native Alaska cultures.

[email protected] golzup.com

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