E^/',d ^ Z/ ^ r E Z'z · Jan-16 31.78 2.37 Feb-16 30.62 2.19 Mar-16 37.96 1.71 Low Count: 27 rigs...
Transcript of E^/',d ^ Z/ ^ r E Z'z · Jan-16 31.78 2.37 Feb-16 30.62 2.19 Mar-16 37.96 1.71 Low Count: 27 rigs...
Permian (Midland, Delaware)
US Oil & Gas Shale Play Map
Major O&G Shale Plays
GEOLOGIC RECORD - WESTERN INTERIOR SEAWAY
4.5”
• 4.5” liner•
•
4.5” liner
• 4.5” liner••
TYPICAL HORIZONTAL TIGHT SHALE WELL DESIGN
TARGET FORMATION
IMPERVIOUS UPPER BOUNDING ZONE
IMPERVIOUS LOWER LAYER
GROUND LEVEL
DEPT
H FR
OM G
ROUN
D LE
VEL
TO T
ARGE
T FO
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YPIC
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FROM
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13,00
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DEP
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E SH
ALE
BASI
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Surface Casing protects groundwater, cemented in place to surface
Frac Stimulations executed in multiple stages starting mid-2000's, single stage hz fracs started in 2000
Hydraulic Fracturing (Fracing)
– 13,100 wells producing, 11,050 Bakken / Three Forks horizontals (85%)
MT Elm Coulee Field 1st Hz Mid- Bakken in 2000
Pre-2004 North Dakota = Conventional Era, NO horizontal wells fracture stimulated
WILLISTON BASIN
Williston Mountrail Co.
Dunn Co.
McKenzie Co.
Williams Co.
Watford City
Stanley
Orig Bkkn Hz play 1989/90 (Meridian Oil)
15,000 sq-mi in ND 11,050 Bakken / Three Forks Hz Wells Drilled Since 2004
1,000 BOPD inital 30-day well rates = high water mark in unconventional oil shale plays today, typically yield 600MBO to 1MMBO EUR's
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NES
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IS -
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—North Dakota April 2016 Production: Oil 1.04 MMBOPD, 15% off peak 1.23 MMBOPD (Dec-14), Natural Gas 1.6 BCF/D (9% flared), peak 1.7 BCF/D in Mar-16
95% of ND production is from tight, unconventional Bakken / Three Forks Fm's
– –– –
NYMEX OIL GAS PRICES ($/BBL) ($/MMBtu) Jul-14 102.39 4.40 Aug-14 96.08 3.81 Sep-14 93.03 3.96 Oct-14 84.34 3.98 Nov-14 75.81 3.73 Dec-14 59.29 4.28
Hi Count: 218 Rigs Active May 2012
- Red Polygons Show NDIC Bakken / 3Forks Field Outlines, - Drilling Derricks Indicate Active Drilling Rig Locations
Conventional Red River Formation Production (conventional = NOT tight shale)
– –– –
NYMEX OIL GAS PRICES ($/BBL) ($/MMBtu) Dec-14 59.29 4.28 Jan-15 47.33 3.19 Feb-15 50.72 2.87 Mar-15 47.85 2.89
–– Drilling Contraction with Declining Oil Price Tier 2 Lower Class Areas Become Uneconomic
– –– –––
NYMEX OIL GAS PRICES ($/BBL) ($/MMBtu) Jan-16 31.78 2.37 Feb-16 30.62 2.19 Mar-16 37.96 1.71
Low Count: 27 rigs May 2016, currently 28 on 6/21/16
Retrenchment to Tier 1 High Quality Area in Low Price Environment
•••
Wellsite Pads for Drilling, Frac'ing & Production Phases
4.5”
• 4.5” liner•
•
4.5” liner
• 4.5” liner••
640-acre (1 mi.) spacing = ~4500' lateral length 1280-acre (2 mi.) spacing = 9000' - 10000' lateral
c. 2008
This schematic indicates a 7-stage frac design (8 yr old technology), 2016 frac designs for 10000' laterals use 30-60 stages w/ 2x-4x proppant as 2008 fracs
TYPICAL BAKKEN HORIZONTAL WELL
DUNN COUNTY, ND Well Spacing Example for Middle Bakken Zone
1280-acre spacing unit (2 govermental 640-ac sections)
Marathon hz well: Lazy De 34-7H
PDC
Ener
gy ea
rlier
64
0-ac
late
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BBLS OIL BBLS WATER MCF GAS
Page 1 of 16/18/2016
BAILEY-BAKKENMARATHON OIL COMPANYLAZY DE 34-7H#18382 33-025-00988-00-00 SWSE 7-T146N-R93W
CUM GAS = 130192CUM WATER = 108831
CUM OIL = 200660
0
10
20
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10000
1000
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10
100000
10000
1000
100
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
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2024
2025
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2027
2028
2029
BB
LS P
ER M
ON
THD
AY
SM
CF PER
MO
NTH
MARATHON OIL COMPANY
#18382 3
Oil, bbls
NatGas, Mcf
Water, bbls
BAILEY-BAKKEN
2015: Installed 4-1/2" liner in 8800-ft lateral, re-frac'd 30-stages w/ported sleeves, enhanced production to 400+ BOPD, 3x initial peak rate
2010: Open-hole lateral, single-stage completed "hail-mary" frac job, 130 BOPD IP30 day av
LAZY DE 34-7H
Re-Frac Example - Production Curve
Six Wells on a Single Pad Multi-Well Pad Development Phase Occurs After Areal Delineation and De-Risking is Completed
Hess Corp. 6 hz well pad develops 2 separate and adjacent 1280-acre spacing units
MOUNTRAIL COUNTY Field-Wide Drillout Example Parshall & Sanish Fields
WHITING PETROLEUM
EOG RESOURCES
MCKENZIE COUNTY Delineation, DeRisking Phases Completed, Awaiting Price Recovery for Field Drillout
Continental Resources Wahpeton Spacing Unit 660' Density Pilot
Continental testing optimum well density patterns to screen for interference betw wells
Williston Basin Tier 1 Area Horizontal Target Formations
Bernstein _0516-24
Brushy Canyon
Leonard A
Leonard B
1st Bone Spring
2nd Bone Spring
3rd Bone Spring
Upper Wolfcamp
Middle Wolfcamp
Lower Wolfcamp
4,80
0’
One WorldTrade Center
1,792’
Battery Park to Wall Street to City Hall 4,800’ Middle Bakken
Lower EagleFord
40’ 150’
Battery Park
Wall Street
City Hall
Horizontal Target Formations
Understanding the Opportunities
3rd Bone Spring
L. Avalon
800’
Most current unconventional plays target one or two zones across a trend area.
The Delaware Basin has over a dozen unique targets between the top of the Brushy Canyon and the Woodford.
All logs plotted at same scale
Delaware Basin
Wolfcamp A
Wolfcamp B
Wolfcamp C
Wolfcamp D
Strawn
Atoka
Barnett
Miss LimeWoodford
U. Avalon
1st Bone Spring
2nd Bone Spring
22
Brushy Cyn.
Ove
rpre
ssur
e
Tested by MTDR
Tested by others
Objective: To drill and complete better wells for less money
Challenge: To identify the best targets within multiple prospective intervals across a geologically complex basin
Matador’s geoscience staff is committed to bringing the best targets forward!
5000 FEET
6400 FEET
5800 FEET
800 ft
800 ft
2nd Bone Spring
3rd Bone Spring
Wolfcamp A
Wolfcamp B
Wolfcamp D
Brushy Cyn.
U. Avalon
1st Bone Spring
DELAWARE - MULTI-STACKED PLAY
Single Wolfcamp B Well at Rustler Breaks Holds Up To 15 Potential Locations
27
Brushy Canyon
Avalon
1st Bone Spring
2nd Bone Spring
3rd Bone Spring
Wolfcamp B
Wolfcamp A-XY
One producing Wolfcamp B well holds 320 surface acres and up to 15 additional potential locations for future development
1/2 mile
1 mile
320 - Acre Development Spacing Pattern (Cross-Section View)
1 mile
320grossacres
1/2 mile
320 - Acre Development Spacing Pattern (Aerial View)
AdditionalLocations Held
WithWolfcamp B well
2
2
2
23
15
2
2
Delaware Basin - Eddy County Density Example
Does Rig Count Matter ?
Active Rig Count, Peak 218 in 5/2012
ND Oil Price $/bbl
# of Wells Spudded per Mth per Rig
1) New Generation Drlg Rig Efficiencies, 2) Multi-Well Pad Development, and 3) Improved Frac Stimulation Designs & Effectiveness in Increasing Well EUR's Must be Taken Into Consideration
Bernstein _0516-12
32.8
18.7
8.8
2014 2015 Record
Delaware Basin Wolfcamp Oil Play South Texas Eagle Ford Bakken
* Normalized to 5,300’ lateral. * Normalized to 8,400’ lateral.* Normalized to 4,500’ lateral.
14.2
10.9
8.97.8
3.7
2012 2013 2014 2015 Record
20.8
14.712.4
8.5
5.4
2012 2013 2014 2015 Record
43
3235
26
1815
17.313.8
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Loving County Wolfcamp Eddy County Wolfcamp
DrillingDa
ys
2014 Average
2015 Planned
2015 Best Well
2016 Record Well
Improving Wolfcamp Drilling Times Significantly in 2015 and 2016
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Note: Best wells are Dorothy White 82-TTT-B33 WF #203H in Loving County (Wolfcamp) and Paul 25-24S-27E RB #221H in Eddy County (Wolfcamp).
DELAWARE BASIN - OPERATOR PERFORMANCE SINCE BASIN ENTRY IN 2014
$0.0
$2.0
$4.0
$6.0
$8.0
$10.0
$12.0
H2 2014 YE 2015 YE 2016E
25%
2016 Anticipated Wolf Area Total Drilling and Completion Cost Improvements
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$12.0
$6.0
$4.8
Dril
ling
and
Com
plet
ion
Cos
ts, m
illio
ns
$100,000 Cost Reduction ROR Increase ~2%
More to come?
Service Costs
Service CostsEfficiencies
Efficiencies
56%
44%
63%
37%
50% Savings 20% Savings
Note: Does not include production and facilities costs.
DELAWARE BASIN - LOVING CO., TX EXAMPLE
NYSE: WLL
Williams County Enhanced Completions Increase 60-Day Average Rates Over 100%
9
452
1,501
404
904
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
60-Day Rate
BOE/
d
452 404
Average of Four Direct Offset Wells P Earl Rennerfeldt 154-99-2-3-27-2H
Average of Six Direct Offset Wells P Earl Rennerfeldt 154-99-2-3-10-15H3
WILLIAMS CO., ND ENHANCED FRAC COMPLETIONS
NYSE: WLL
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0 140.0 160.0 180.0 200.0
Barr
el o
f Oil
Equi
vale
nt
700 MBOE 900 MBOE Enhanced Completion Average
Enhanced Completions Tracking 900 MBOE EUR Type Curve(1)
8
(1) Data set includes all enhanced completion wells (over 5 million pounds sand per well) since January 1, 2015 with 120 days of production. These 47 wells span Billings, Dunn, McKenzie, Mountrail, Stark and Williams counties.(1) Data set includes all enhanced completion wells (over 5 million pounds sand per well) since January 1, 2015 with 120 days of production. These 47 wells span( ) p (Billings, Dunn, McKenzie, Mountrail, Stark and Williams counties.
Williston Basin
Bernstein _0516-4
Focus on Premium Locations
Precision Targeting
Advanced Completions
Lower Costs
* Domestic completions, gross oil production.
10.713.6
20.9
2014 2015 2016 Est
120-Day Cumulative Oil Production* (Bbl Per Foot of Treated Lateral)
EOG DOMESTIC COMPLETIONS
- Increased Proppant Loading - Slickwater Fluid Systems - Cemented Liners - Increased Number of Stages - Plug and Perf Frac Method
Indu
stry
Pra
ctice
Advanced Completions
U. S. Shale Basins
Bernstein _0516-31
2015 Completions4,030 Events /1,000 ft
540 Events /1,000 ft
2010 Completions
Contain Events Closerto Wellbore
Enhance Complexity to Contact More Surface Area
Note: Microseismic dots represent well stimulation events during completions. Note: Microseismic dots represent well stimulation events during completions.
26
7,500 bbl
8,400 bbl
500 Mlbs
210 ft.
35 ft.
Gen 1 Gen 2 Testing
2,000 lbs/ft 2,000 lbs/ft 3,000 lbs/ft
40 Bbl/ft 30 Bbl/ft 40 Bbl/ft
35’ clusterspacing
50’ cluster spacing
35’ cluster Spacing
10 wells 13 wells 1 well
Gen 1 Testing
2,000 lbs/ft 3,000 lbs/ft
40 Bbl/ft 40 Bbl/ft
35’ cluster spacing
35’ cluster Spacing
1 well 1 well
Bone Spring
Upper Wolfcamp
Lower Wolfcamp
Cou
pled
Mic
ro-C
oupl
edSo
urce
Roc
k
630 Mlbs
630 Mlbs
210 ft.
35 ft.
8,400 bbl
Evolution of Delaware Basin Frac Design – Reservoir Specific
350 ft.
50 ft.Gen 1 Gen 2 Testing
2,000 lbs/ft 1,333 lbs/ft 2,100 lbs/ft
40 Bbl/ft 20 Bbl/ft 40 Bbl/ft
50’ clusterspacing
75’ cluster spacing
50’ cluster Spacing
4 wells 6 wells 2 wells
10
100
1,000
10,000
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 700 750 800
Prod
uctio
n R
ate,
BO
E/d
Time, Days
Dorothy White #1H
Norton Schaub #1H
Billy Burt #203H
Johnson #204H
Barnett #201H
Dorothy White #1H has produced 515 MBOE (68% oil) in 28 monthsNorton Schaub 84 TTT B33 WF #201H has produced 425 MBOE (67% oil) in 21 monthsBilly Burt 90 TTT B33 WF #203H has produced 195 MBOE (73% oil) in 12 monthsJohnson 44 02S B53 WF #204H has produced 300 MBOE (66% oil) in 19 monthsBarnett 90 TTT B01 WF #201H has produced 230 MBOE (64% oil) in 14 months
ESP installed
Wolf Area Wolfcamp A-XY Wells Continue Strong Performance Across Acreage
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600 MBOE Type Curve
1,200 MBOE Type Curve 900 MBOE Type Curve
Note: Production from selected Wolfcamp A-XY wells in Wolf prospect area as of April 2016.
Delaware Basin - Current Type Curve Examples
ESP installed
Bernstein _0516-6
* Source: Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. Thousand Club includes wells with 30-day rate over 1,000 Boed in 2015.Represents 3,600 wells out of 40,000 drilled.Companies: BHP, CHK, CLR, COG, COP, CXO, DVN, EPE, EQT, HES, MRO, NBL, PXD, RRC, RICE, SM, SWN, TOU, XEC.
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
EOG A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S
Well CountPercent Oil
Well Count Percent Oil
pCompanies: BHP, CHK, CLR, COG, COP, CXO, DVN, EPE, EQT, HES, MRO, NBL, PXD, RRC, RICE, SM, SWN, TOU, XEC.
Bernstein _0516-11
* CWC = Drilling, Completion, Well-Site Facilities and Flowback.
11.5
7.56.7
2014 2015 Target
Delaware Basin Wolfcamp Oil Play South Texas Eagle Ford Bakken
* Normalized to 5,300’ lateral. * Normalized to 8,400’ lateral.* Normalized to 4,500’ lateral.
6.15.7
5.2
2014 2015 Target
8.8
7.26.2
2014 2015 Target
Bernstein _0516-13
2014 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16
G&P G&A Taxes Other Than Income Transportation LOE
$12.84*$13.72$14.49
$15.39$17.02
* Excludes one-time expenses of $18.7 million in 4Q15 related to early leasehold termination and $22.4 million in 1Q16 related to voluntary retirement program. Includes stock compensation expense and other non-cash items. See reconciliation schedules.
$11.96*
Typical Oil Industry Cash Operating Cost Reduction Since 2014
Bernstein _0516-15
Middle East
Venezuela
Brazil
Russia
Nigeria
Angola
US L48 Conv
Mexico
GOM
$0$10$20$30$40$50$60$70$80$90
$100
MiddleEast/Russia
Medium CostConventional
USTight Oil
DeepWater
High CostNon-OPEC
Arctic / RussianUnconventional
* Price required to achieve 10% Direct ATROR (see reconciliation schedules).Source: PIRA.
Brent ($/BBL)
50% 22% 5% 16% 7% -% World Supply
Oil Sands
New Marginal Cost of Oil
( $65 - $75)North Sea
U.S. Tight OilFar East
Russia EOG ($30)*
EOG Competitive Globally
US Crude Oil, NGL, and Refined Products Pipelines
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1/1/2014 4/1/2014 7/1/2014 10/1/2014 1/1/2015 4/1/2015 7/1/2015 10/1/2015 1/1/2016 4/1/2016
Gas
Pric
e, $
/MM
Btu
Oil
Pric
e $/
Bbl,
Oil/
Gas
Pric
e Ra
tio
_
Oil Price
Oil/Gas Price Ratio
Gas Price
34
Commodity Prices Volatile, but Have Rallied from Q1 2016 Lows
Prices begin declining in July 2014
Oil prices up sharply from $26.21 per Bbl on Feb 11 –about $51 per Bbl in early June (up ~95%)
Gas prices also up from $1.64 per MMBtu on March 3 –almost $2.50 per MMBtu in early June (up ~50%)
Bernstein _0516-28
7,998 8,087
8,244
8,568
8,577 8,678
8,754 8,835
8,9599,129
9,198
9,423
9,341
9,451
9,6489,694
9,479
9,315
9,433
9,407
9,4539,379
9,329
9,246 9,1809,129
9,037 8,948
8,799
8,629
8,508
8,253
8,1128,178
8,2288,222
8,1898,152
8,150
8,1418,075
8,006
8,002
7,8607,792
7,9518,082
8,115
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov
* EIA STEO Model Released April 2016
2014+1,252
2015+726
2016-829
2017-558
(MBod)
Fcst
2014 2015 2016 2017
Bernstein _0516-5
Eagle Ford Delaware Basin Wolfcamp - Oil and ComboDelaware Basin 2nd Bone Spring SandDelaware Basin LeonardBakken/Three Forks – Core
Bakken/Three Forks – Non-Core
* Direct ATROR at Flat Oil Prices. See reconciliation schedules. Oil price at the wellhead, natural gas price $2.50 per MMBtu.
40%15%Powder River BasinWyoming DJ Basin
5% 10% $50
Oil
Excludes Indirect Capital:- Gathering, Processing and Other Midstream- Land, Seismic, Geological and Geophysical
Direct ATROR*Based on cash flow and time value of money:- Estimated Future Commodity Prices and Operating Costs - Costs Incurred to Drill, Complete and Equip a Well
$40
Oil
60%30%Premium Inventory
Shale Play Profitability Rank List
U.S. Tight Shale Plays by Basin RAB 6/21/16
Region / Basin StateHz Target Formations
Major Phase
General Comments
‐ Permian Midland Delaware
TX (West) TX, NM
Multiple Prolific Stacked Pays
Oil Oil, Liq Rich
World Class Basin Since 1950's and for Decades to Come with Newer Hz Frac Designs, Multiple Pay Zones Will Require High Well Densities per 640‐ac section, Early Delineation Phase
‐ Eagle Ford TX (South)Lower Eagle Ford,
Upper EF Pot'l, Austin Chalk POSS
Oil / GasOil Area Downspacing Continues, Look for Re‐Frac Pot'l,
LEF Gassier Areas Remain to be Tapped, Upper EF Delineation = Future Potential
‐ Barnett TX (North Central) Barnett Gas, Minor Oil
Mature Basin since early 2000's ‐ Initial proving ground for Hz frac'ing technology, Re‐Fracs next phase of Barnett dvlpmnt
with any gas price recovery
‐ Williston ND, MT Mid‐Bakken, Three Forks Oil
World Class Basin, Frac Improvements Increasing EURs & Reducing Breakeven Prices, Pressured Areas Generate Best Wells, DUC Inventory in Play at $50/bbl, Re‐Fracs Coming
‐ DJ (Denver‐Julesburg) CO, WY Niobrara A/B/C, Codell Gas (Liq Rich)
Significant Wattenberg Downspacing Remains with Frac Improvements, Longer Laterals, along with Expansion
Opportunities into Underexploited Areas
‐ Powder River WY Turner, Parkman, Sussex Oil
Early Delineation/Derisking Phase, Deeper Formations @ 12,000'+ Require Higher Capex, Pressured Targets Yielding
Impressive Well Results, Devon $600MM Acqn
‐ Woodford SCOOP/STACK
OK Woodford, Meramec
Oil / Gas,Oil
Up and Coming play since 2012 with Attractive Reservoir Properties, Pressured Formations, strong flow rates >1000
BOE/d, note recent Devon acqn of CHK position
‐ Mississipppi Lime OK, KS Mississippi Oil Higher cost basin ‐ high associated water production, normally pressured yielding uneconomic rates
‐ Marcellus PA, WV, OH Marcellus, Upper Devonian Gas
Developing Play since 2008, Prolific hz Well Performance (2‐3 Bcf / 1000' hz), sweet spot 200‐300 Bcf in place/640‐ac sec, will supply East Coast markets for decades, NY State frac ban
‐ Utica OH, WV, PAUtica,
Point Pleasant(below Marcellus)
Dry Gas, Liq Rich
Up and Coming play, Significant Upside (PROB/POSS), Multiple Operators Testing New Areas and Well Designs &
Lateral Lengths, Takeaway Capacity Limiting Factor
‐ Louisiana Haynesville Tuscaloosa Marine (TMS)
LA (North) LA (Central), MS (SW)
Haynesville,HZ Cotton Valley
TMS Gas Oil
Haynesville a Higher Cost Target due to Deeper Depth, Pricier Fracs (ceramic proppant), abnormally pressured ‐ Still Some Activity plus HZ Cotton Valley Play (Range/MRD Merger)TMS Deep Depths @ 13,000'+ = High Breakeven Cost
‐ Fayetteville AR Fayetteville GasMature Dry Gas Shale Play, 10+ years of development dominated by Southwestern Energy, 1st hz well in 2004
‐ Michigan (Antrim) MI Antrim Gas Mature Dry Gas Shale Play, shallow <2200 ft, developed with >9000 vertical wells since 1990's, cumulative 2.5 Tcf gas prod.
‐ Illinois (New Albany) IN, IL, KY New Albany Oil / Gas Early stage of potential developing play in 100+ yr old Illinois Basin
US Horizontal DUC Inventory
Figure 1 summarizes the monthly evolution of horizontal DUC wells for major US liquid basins. Each data point shows how many wells were spudded but not completed as of the end of each month. Back in 2011-2014 an average time from spud to completion was 4-5 months across the US Shale. During this period, the DUC wells increased rapidly, together with increased drilling and completion activity. As of the end of 2014, the DUC inventory contained more than 4,500 horizontal oil wells.
In early 2015, drilling activity showed a faster response to the oil price decline than completion did. This is due to a significant number of rig contracts being terminated before expiration. Thus, despite the completion delays, DUC inventory decreased by 500 wells over the first months of 2015. In the second half of 2015, the decline in completion activity caught up with the decline in drilling and DUC inventory stabilized at the level of 4,000 wells. However, less mature shale areas such as the Permian Basin has shown a different trend from the rest of liquid plays with DUC inventory increasing by 25% from the end of 2014 to the end of 2015, while in other plays inventory contracted by 20-25%. Exit-2015 inventory is equivalent to more than 7 months of drilling activity at the current pace that is a 50% increase from the average in 2011-2014.