Ed Dammers, FLIS-meeting, Copenhagen, 11 June 2014

++31-6-46 93 46 35ed.dammer@pbl.nl

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European Nature Outlook

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Nature Outlook explores

• The future of nature and landscapes in Europe

• Various ways in which society values nature and landscapes

• Possible policy strategies to protect and develop them

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Reasons for publishing

• In the first half of 2016 the Netherlands will head the Council of Ministers

• Minister Dijksma will organize an informal ministers conference on biodiversity

• EU biodiversity strategy probably needs to be adapted and further elaborated

• Provide input for the ministers conference and other discussions in the EU

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Nature Outlook may provide

• Insights into alternative strategies for EU nature and landscape policies

• Stimuli for open discussions about the future of nature and landscapes

• Stimuli for reconnecting nature and landscape policies with people’s values

• Examples of concrete and feasible governance arrangements

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Required qualities

• Storylines to make the scenarios easily understandable and communicable

• Figures to provide more specific insights into future biodiversity, costs and benefits etc.

• Enough contrast to inspire and not too much to remain plausible

• A baseline scenario and several normative scenarios

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Scope of scenarios

• Focus on nature and landscapes but other sectors are also included

• Europe as a whole and various cases like mountain, coastal and urbanized areas

• Focus on period to 2050 with special attention for 2020

Present Future

Abstract Concrete

Scenario base

Normative scenarios

Baseline scenario

Policy messages

Building-blocks

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Normative scenarios

“Vital Nature”

“Functional Nature”

“Experiential Nature”

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Methods to be applied

• Stakeholder participation: future ateliers, crowd sourcing, DG-meetings, discussions

• Literature review: trend reports (SOER, ESPAS), scenario studies, research reports

• Visualizations: 3D maps, symbolic maps, iconic pictures, photo manipulations, etc.

• Model calculations: BIOSCORE, GLOBIO, GIS-analyses

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Possibilities for participation

• FLIS-meetings• Bilateral contacts• Crowd sourcing• Scenario workshops

• Exchanging experiences• Providing insights• Suggesting cases • Reviewing results• Writing parts

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Questions?

Remarks?

Ideas?

Suggestions?