Ecosystems, climate change and resilience in Nepal’s rural-urban continuum

Ajaya Dixit

ESPA Meeting

26 and 27 November 2014 New Delhi

Physical context Ecosystems Changing rural urban relationships Climate change Adaptation and resilience Some questions Concluding thoughts

Physical context

Meso-scale variation. Regions on the wind ward of mountain ranges are wetter than those on leeward side

(FAO, 2014)

Micro-scale variation. Whether floor or hills of a single valley

get more rain at any one rainfall event is hard to predict

Ecosystems

River ecosystem Elements: • River channel • Flood plain • Land and land use types in the riparian area linked directly to river

water • Human habitat, agricultural land, forest, grassland, wetland,

biodiversity- plants and animals) Processes: • Hydrologic (water production and distribution) • Geological (erosion and sedimentation) • Bio-chemical (disintegration and synthesis- nutrient recycling) • Biological (conversion of water, nutrients and energy into food) Processes link the elements in producing goods and services

River ecosystem types:

i. Natural system:

• Functions to satisfy all uses

• Ecosystem integrity is maintained

ii. Human engineered system:

• Designed to satisfy irrigation, municipal and industrial uses and non-consumptive (power generation, flood control) uses

• Enhanced gains for human welfare (generally at the cost of environmental integrity)

Human engineered system

• Uni-dimensional and uni-directional) : focus on enhancing provisioning services and to some extent maintaining and/or enhancing regulating services (dams, flood embankments, inter-basin water transfer)

• Cultural and supporting services are either ignored or compromised

• Social, economic and environmental costs are externalized.

Knowledge: Human engineered ecosystem

• Hydraulics and river hydraulics understanding from different

geo-hydrological context.

• Limited empirical evidences on behavior of regional climate and

river systems.

• Over simplification of processes.

• Preponderance towards construction based (hardware)

solutions

• Non-structural alternatives not considered while designing

strategies.

• Data deficit: precipitation, river flow, sedimentation, river

bahavour, ecosystem service relationship

• Knowledge deficit in accounting and quantifying supporting,

regulating and cultural services.

Indeed a Mosaic but Fluid Mosaic

Provisioning

Agricultural land (20 % total

area) 8.58 million metric tons of

cereal, employs 66 %

population.

Forests (timber, fodder forage).

6,000 rivers, 225* 109 m3 spatial

and temporal variations.

FMIS 75 % irrigated land.

Bio mass meets fuel needs of

65.6 % households.

Hydropower 708.519 MW;

4218.135 Gwh, 22 MW small

scale 48 Gwh of energy

Solar home systems produce

1.23 MW

268,464 biogas plants serve

over 225,000 households.

Exploitable minerals include

limestone, copper and zinc.

Stones, boulders and sand are

mined and used.

2,000 plants known to have

medicinal properties

Regulating

Mountains condensation

of vapour in water-bearing

winds 1,857 mm of rainfall:

80 % in four summer

months.

Forests, grasslands, and

water bodies modulate

temperature and wind

patterns: produce micro-

climates.

Micro level forests,

grasslands, and leaf litters

support the recharge of

aquifers, local surface and

groundwater systems.

Both traditional and

modern hydro structures

regulate flowing water.

5,358 lakes, of which

glacial lakes 2,323

Vegetation, together with

soil-building processes,

provides a buffer against

disturbances caused by

natural and human forces.

Capacity is being eroded

by the haphazard

construction of roads,

urbanization.

Cultural

Safaris, trekking and

mountaineering, and white water

rafting, canoeing, bungee jumping,

paragliding, and mountain cycling).

Hindu temples, shrines and

Buddhists monasteries

8.03 million tourists supported

hotels, restaurants, travel and

trekking agencies, and other

related service sectors.

About 553,500 people were directly

employed in the tourism sector and

tourism generated USD 356.73

million as revenue for the state

exchequer. Tourism and travel

trade accounted for 4.3 per cent of

the GDP.

IKLP drinking water, irrigation,

housing, bridge building, milling,

trails, forest use, natural resources

and agro-systems, Sources of

resilience.

Supporting

Ponds in hills recharge

springs.

Estimated to be 8.8 X 109

m3. The recharge rate

varies from 11,598 x 106

to 14,300 x 106 m3.

Sediment yield rate, about

472 x 106 m3/year fine

sediment deposited on

flood plains maintains soil

fertility.

.

Wetlands support a wide

variety of plants and

animals and are a means

of livelihood for many

people. In the Tarai,

fishing occurs on 14 per

cent of wetlands and

animal grazing on 70 per

cent.

Wetlands help moderate

flood peaks too.

Changing rural urban relationship

Next 15 years, 60 per cent of the world’s people will live in cities, most of them in Asia! .

Homo sapiens becoming Homo sapiens urbanus

Total urban population 58 municipalities- 4,523,820(17%) Municipality numbers- 130 (in recent times 72 added ) Total population of Kathmandu Valley- 2,517,235 (Kathmandu, Lalitpur & Bhaktapur districts) (CBS, 2011)

Penetration of rural and urban systems

DST (2008)

Tamrakar (2003).

Imports of cereal foods doubled during fiscal year 2009/10 compared to 2008/2009. (Rs 4.19 billion from Rs 2.2 billion during the period).

Dixit et. al (2013)

Climate Change

IPCC

IPCC

Climate change: Scenario for Nepal

Rara

Who benefits, who decides, who is represented

Floods, storms, drought mitigation – up to thresholds

Solutionsheds

Water availability, access, disease control

o Impact of temperature rise has not been seriously examined

o Just not temperature but heat

Heat includes humidity Humidity a factor in metabolic cooling processes

Temperature

Precipitation

Humidity

Temperature regime Nepal

Higher temperature most certain of projection outputs:

Rise in mean temperature in 2090 CE could be as high as 4.7o C (NCVST, 2009)

Extreme Base Increase by % Scenario Year

hot days hottest 5% of days/nights: 1970-1999

70 2090

Hot nights 93

Historical records Temperature rise in hills of central Nepal about 0.060 C/annum.

Local experience: days and nights becoming hotter

• Worked with National Centre for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) to explore what might be the future of heat

• Used the 37° body temperature threshold

A recent ISET study in Gorakhpur, India (McClune et al forthcoming) highlights heat as an emerging issue for the poor households: Cannot escape it

Gorakhpur: Change in heat days

Number of days in Gorakhpur above 37˚C

South Asia – heat days above 370 C

Provisioning

Agriculture. Forests fodder and forage. % with reliable, affordable, green 24/7 energy Plants with medicinal properties and livelihood ? ?

Regulating

Temperature modulating role ? ?

Cultural

?

?

Supporting

?

?

New strategies needed: how, who, where

Solutions are partly technical, social, economic and political – and don’t yet exist

What temperature threshold forces humans into actions that they take to save themselves from the extreme heat?

Heat problem arenas have major challenges

Adaptation and resilience

• For many impacts we can build on elements of technology and social organizations that are placed to build resilience or adapt

• For heat, human threshold is fairly sharp, active cooling essential response.

• Implications on energy, technological choice, economic pathways, access and equity issues

• Adds yet one more tough layer on already tough current challenges.

Existing challenges

Dealing with attribution Development-adaptation continuum What is the additionality?

Linking planned and autonomous adaptation

Brooks et al. (2011)

NCVST (2009)

Climate Resilience Framework (CRF)

ISET (2009) Dixit and Khadga, 2013)

Agents

Resourceful

Responsive

Ability to learn

Institutions

Recognition of

access rights and

entitlements

Decision making

processes follow

principles of good

governance

Transparent

information flows

Able to apply new

knowledge

Resilience characteristics

Systems

Flexibility and diversity

Redundancy and modularity Fail safe

Which ecosystems and services are most vulnerable, and what does their interdependence with larger systems tell us about their current vulnerability?

Which individuals, households, communities, and

institutions are likely to be more vulnerable?

How will climate change (temperature, moisture change, heat) affect the services, the interdependence and those dependent on the services and change vulnerability?

How can resilience of natural and human built systems enhanced so that people are better prepared to deal with the stresses that climate change may engender?

Who should be involved in the process of building resilience and how?

Questions

Few concluding thoughts

• Climate change creates new stress in the wellbeing journey: adds to governance deficit, lowers development and poverty alleviation gains.

• If adaptation is planned responses to specific projected impacts, then specific climate-targeted responses required.

• If adaptation an ongoing process within complex evolving

systems, then approaches that address points of vulnerability within the Fluid Mosaic needed.

• Approach: pluralistic, incremental and reflective.

Thank you

iset@ntc.net.np

www.isetnepal.np