Ecosummit may 2013 long

The Magic of Energy Efficiency:The Sequel

Steven Fawkes

EcoSummit

Berlin

5th June2013

© Steven Fawkes 2013

If you are not worried about energy………. you should be

$279 billion p.a.$83 per barrel exportedOnly 20% goes to USA

Ageing infrastructure

Ageing workforce

2013: 10 million barrels/day export

2035: domestic demand = production

€500 billion p.a. energy imports.

Additional 3 billion middle class by 2030

1.3 billion

1.6 million children

HOW EFFICIENT ARE WE?

475

5555

Source: University of Cambridge, global figures , in EJSource: University of CambridgeUnits: Exajoules

Only 11% efficient

www.onlyelevenpercent.com

IEA’s EFFICIENT WORLD SCENARIO

- Boost cumulative output by $18 trillion by 2035

= GDP US, Canada, Mexico, Chile combined

- Additional investment of $11.8 trillion

- Reduces fuel expenditures by $17.5 trillion

- Reduces supply side investment by $5.9 trillion

- Oil demand peaks at 91 million barrels per day before 2020 and

declines to 87 million per day in 2035

- Energy related CO2 emissions peak before 2020 and decline to 30.5

Gt in 2035

Source: IEA WEO 2012

MASSIVE

POTENTIAL

LCOE Summary (€/MWh)

€30 - 75

€60 - 75

€110 - 140

€125 - 250

€125 - 175

€250 - 350

€20 - 45

Fossil / nuclear

Onshore wind

Large PV

Small PV

Offshore wind

Tidal stream

Energy efficiencySource: Fraunhofer Institute and ACEEE

EFFICIENCY

IS

CHEAPEST

Energy efficiency: 21 jobs per $1m spend Energy generation: 10 jobs per $1m spendEconomy as a whole: 17 jobs per $1m

Source: ACEEE 2011

‘Why isn’t energy efficiency happening?’

‘Why isn’t energy efficiency happening?’

ENERGY EFFICIENCY IS HAPPENING

Oil

Oil RenewablesCoal Gas Nuclear Other Efficiency

Opportunities for new products

and new business models

$279 billion investment opportunity10 year energy savings > $1 trillion3.3 million new jobs600 million tonnes GHG (10% US total)Source: Deutsche Bank and Rockefeller Foundation

25

38% energy saving3.1 year payback on incremental capital

20% reductionin HVAC energy

23% reduction in peak load

Compared to standard E-glassSource: View Glass

Nuclear reactor equivalents by 2020Source: McKinsey

7

3

19

17

9

28

20% target

BIG DATA

$0.7 trillion NPV$0.3 trillion investment27% savings potential

Source: Rocky Mountain Institute

10% weight reduction = 7% gain fuel efficiency

Excess weight kills any self-propelled vehicle. Weight may be desirable in a steam roller but nowhere else.

Henry Ford, 1924

Aluminium has potential to reduce weight by 40%Sources: MIT & AluEurope

10-15%Source: Stena

21% saving compared to 767 (measured NOT marketing hype)

Source: Aviation Week

Gas flared every year = total energy consumption of France and Germany combined

barriers

36

Ecosummit may 2013 long

Technology

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