ECOOP annual meeting 12-15 February 2008 Athens

Ole K. Leth

Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI)

Contribution to WP 4 (13 February 2008) – Modelling and forecasting system assessment. Standards, quality, functions

T4.1 – Evaluation of nowcasting and forecasting activity in regional and coastal seas of Europe and establishing of common standards

Overview1. The questionnaires – A search for information on the regional model status

2. Main results obtained from the questionnaires:a. Basin wide/regional models – maps of regions where models are operatingb. Regional model status at the start of ECOOP

3. Summary

4. What should we demand from the forecasting systems? – definition of common standards based on WP4, T4.1. Relevant for WP6: D4.4.1.1 (Mo16). Recommendation (to WP6) of regional forecasting system improvements according to common standards D4.4.2.1 (Mo22) Recommendation (to WP6) of regional system improvements according to product validation results

WP4, T4.1 - Evaluation of nowcasting and forecasting activity in regional and coastal seas of Europe and establishing of common standards

Structure of the questionnaires:

a) Basic system design:i) Model name, type, gridii) Types of forcings included: Wind, heat, freshwater, …

b) System input:i) Initial condition fields usedii) Surface forcing fields usediii) Open boundary forcing fields used

c) System features:i) Included submodels: Ice, biochemistry, …ii) Data-assimilation schemes, if applicable

”… For ECOOP WP4 the first important step is to gather information on existing forecasting systems - in order to come up with recommendations (e.g., to WP6) …”

d) System products:i) Forecasted model parameters

e) System validation:i) Data-validated model parameters

f) System configuration:i) Forecasting lengths, run

frequency, …ii) Computational platform

WP4, T4.1 - Evaluation of nowcasting and forecasting activity in regional and coastal seas of Europe and establishing of common standards

Results obtained from the questionnaires

Regions covered by ECOOP:

1) North Sea2) Baltic Sea3) Iberian-Biscay-Irish Region4) Mediterranean Sea5) Black Sea

Baltic

Sea

North SeaIB

I Region

Mediterranean

Black

WP4, T4.1 - Evaluation of nowcasting and forecasting activity in regional and coastal seas of Europe and establishing of common standards

Results obtained from the questionnaires (continued):

Baltic Sea

Status at the start of ECOOP:

4 systems do 3D ocean forecasts (SMHI, BSH, FIMR and DMI)4 (100% ) systems run operationally2 (50%) systems apply data-assimilation3 (75%) systems do validation of products (model output)1 (25%) system has ecosystem model2 (50%) systems do wave forecasting3 (75% ) systems do ice forecasting3 (75% ) systems do oil spill tracking and search and rescue1 (25 %) system do forecast of sediment transports

WP4, T4.1 - Evaluation of nowcasting and forecasting activity in regional and coastal seas of Europe and establishing of common standards

Results obtained from the questionaries (continued):North Sea

Status at the start of ECOOP:

3 systems do 3D ocean forecasts (MUMM, Met.no, PML)3 (100% ) systems run operationally1 (33%) system apply data-assimilation2 (67%) systems do validation of products (model output)2 (67%) systems have ecosystem models

1 (33%) system do wave forecasting1 (33%) system do ice forecasting (Met.no)2 (67%) systems do oil spill tracking, search and res.0 (0 %) systems do forecast of sediment transports

WP4, T4.1 - Evaluation of nowcasting and forecasting activity in regional and coastal seas of Europe and establishing of common standards

Results obtained from the questionnaires (continued):

Iberian-Biscay-Irish Region

Status at the start of ECOOP:

5 systems do 3D ocean forecasts (IST, MetGal, Mercator, IEO, IMI)4 (80%) systems run operationally1 (20%) system run pre-operationally1 (20%) system apply data-assimilation4 (80%) systems do validation of products0 (0%) system has ecosystem model1 (20%) system do wave forecasting3 (60% ) systems do oil spill tracking, search and res.1 (20 %) system do forecast of sediment transports

WP4, T4.1 - Evaluation of nowcasting and forecasting activity in regional and coastal seas of Europe and establishing of common standards

Black sea

Status at the start of ECOOP:

6 systems do 3D ocean forecasts (MHI, SOI, IOBAS, IGGAS, NMA, MBURHI)0 (0%) systems run operationally6 (100%) systems run pre-operationally0 (0%) system apply data-assimilation6 (100%) systems do validation of products (model output)

0 (0%) systems have ecosystem models0 (0%) system do wave forecasting0 (0%) systems do oil spill tracking, search and res.0 (0 %) systems do forecast of sediment transports

Results obtained from the questionnaires (continued):

WP4, T4.1 - Evaluation of nowcasting and forecasting activity in regional and coastal seas of Europe and establishing of common standards

Results obtained from the questionnaires (continued)

Mediterranean sea

Status at the start of ECOOP:

6 systems do 3D ocean forecasts (OCUC, HCMR, IASA, IAMC, POC, IOLR)6 (100%) systems run operationally0 (0%) systems apply data-assimilation6 (100%) systems do validation of products (model output)

0 (0%) systems have ecosystem models2 (33%) system do wave forecasting2 (33%) systems do oil spill tracking, search and res.0 (0 %) systems do forecast of sediment transports

WP4, T4.1 - Evaluation of nowcasting and forecasting activity in regional and coastal seas of Europe and establishing of common standards

Summary:

24 areas have model systems for forecasting of 3D ocean circulation and hydrography

16 (67%) systems run operationally8 (33%) systems run pre-operationally4 (17%) systems apply data-assimilation21 (88%) systems do validation of products: 14 (58%) systems validate SST 2 (8%) systems validate SSS 5 (21%) systems validate sea level 1 (4%) system validate sea surface velocity 8 (33%) systems validate velocity profiles

4 (17%) systems have ecosystem models 3 (13%) ecosystems are in operational mode 1 (4%) ecosystems is in pre-operation mode7 (29%) systems have surface wave forecasting 5 (21%) wave models are operational 2 (8%) wave models are pre-operational4 (17%) model systems do ice forecasts10 (42%) model systems do oil spill tracking and search and rescue2 (8%) model systems do pre-operational forecasts of sediment transports

Results obtained from the questionnaires (continued):

WP4, T4.1 - Evaluation of nowcasting and forecasting activity in regional and coastal seas of Europe and establishing of common standards

Based on the results obtained from the questionnaires the following is suggested to improve models (common standards):

All systems (North Sea, Baltic Sea, Iberia-Biscay-Irish region, Mediterranean Sea and Black Sea) should be/include:

• Operational and process resolving • Downscaling (from Basin wide Regional Local scale)• Data-assimilation should be applied at least at one level (e.g., regional)• Validation against data• At least one specific (relevant) feature. E.g., oil spill tracking, search and rescue, sea ice, ecosystem modeling, …

WP4, T4.1 - Evaluation of nowcasting and forecasting activity in regional and coastal seas of Europe and establishing of common standards