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The Saturday Economist, Quarterly Economics Slide Presentation May 2013
Transcript of Economics presentation may 2013
Economics Review May 2013
Thursday, 23 May 13
Thursday, 23 May 13
Thursday, 23 May 13
May 2013Economics ReviewThursday, 23 May 13
May 2013Economics ReviewThursday, 23 May 13
Dr John Ashcroft
April 2013Thursday, 23 May 13
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
3.53.7
3.32.9
2.7
4.3
-2.3
1.3
3.94.0
3.5
World GDP
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA
% change year on year
The trend rate of growth is 2.7%
Data from World Bank, OECD and IMF
Thursday, 23 May 13
World GDP
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA
% change year on yearData from World Bank, OECD and IMF
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
World 2.7 2.9 3.3 3.7 3.5
Euro 1.5 -0.6 -0.3 0.9 1.4
USA 1.8 2.2 2.3 2.8 3.0
China 9.3 7.9 7.8 7.7 7.5
Japan -0.7 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.4
Brazil 2.7 0.9 3.2 3.5 4.0
Russia 4.3 3.5 3.5 3.9 3.8
India 6.9 5.1 5.5 6.5 7.0
Turkey 8.5 2.9 4.0 4.5 5.0
Indonesia 6.5 6.1 6.3 6.6 6.6
Mexico 3.9 4.0 3.4 3.6 3.6
Thursday, 23 May 13
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
6.76.55.5
2.5
5.8
15.1
-12.6
2.3
6.6
8.97.3
World Trade
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA
% change year on year
The trend rate of growth is 5.5%Trade Multiplier 2.0
Data from World Bank and Netherlands World Trade Data
2012 2013 2014 2015
OBR 3.0 4.4 5.9
Estimate 2.5 5.5 6.5 6.7
Thursday, 23 May 13
-5.0
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0
1.0
2.0
3.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
2.21.8
1.2
0.2
0.9
1.8
-4.1
-0.1
2.82.9
2.4
UK GDP
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA
% change year on year
Thursday, 23 May 13
-7.0
-6.0
-5.0
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
UK GDP Q1
quarter on quarter
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA Thursday, 23 May 13
-4.0
-3.2
-2.4
-1.6
-0.8
0
0.8
1.6
2.4
3.2
0.70.6
1.51.2
1.6
0.7
2.5
-3.5
-2.3-2.1
UK GDP Q1 Components of growth
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA
% change year on year
Manufac
turing
Production
Constructio
n
Distributio
n
Hotels & Le
isure
Transport
Business
Servi
ces
and Finance
-5.9
Total Ser
vices
GDPGDP ex
oil
and gas
105 156 68
140 106 291 233 1000 980770
Government
and other
Thursday, 23 May 13
-5.0
-4.3
-3.6
-2.9
-2.1
-1.4
-0.7
0
0.7
1.4
2.1
2.9
3.6
4.3
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
US GDP Q1
quarter on quarter
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA Thursday, 23 May 13
0
1.3
2.6
3.9
5.2
6.5
7.8
9.1
10.4
11.7
13.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
China GDP Q1
quarter on quarter
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA
7.7%!
Thursday, 23 May 13
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA
% change year on year
Europe GDP
Thursday, 23 May 13
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA
Europe Unemployment
Thursday, 23 May 13
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA
Europe Unemployment
Thursday, 23 May 13
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
UK GDP (O) Index
Trend Rate
2.9%
Trend Rate 1.0%
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA
% change year on year
UK GDP
LTR 2.4%Output Gap
10.4%
Thursday, 23 May 13
80
90
100
110
120
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
US GDP Index
Trend Rate 2.4%
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA
% change year on year
US GDP
Output Gap9%
Thursday, 23 May 13
80
90
100
110
120
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
US GDP Index
Trend Rate 2.4%
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA
US Debt
Thursday, 23 May 13
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
2004/5 2005/6 2006/7 2007/8 2008/9 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13
ReceiptsANBV
ExpenditureANLP
UK Debt
UK deficit not shrinking quite so fast
Thursday, 23 May 13
0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
2.52.52.4
2.8
4.5
3.3
2.2
3.6
2.42.3
2.0
UK Inflation CPI
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA
% change year on year
Thursday, 23 May 13
-1.0
0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Inflation CPI
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AllServices
Goods
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA
UK Inflation CPI - goods and services
Thursday, 23 May 13
-1.5
0
1.5
3.0
4.5
6.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
2.92.92.83.2
5.2
4.6
-0.5
4.04.3
3.22.8
UK Inflation RPI
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA
% change year on year
Thursday, 23 May 13
0
1.8
3.5
5.3
7.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
2.32.32.2
2.8
5.6
4.2
1.6
6.8
2.32.02.0
UK Inflation Manufacturing Prices (O)
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA
% change year on year
Thursday, 23 May 13
-7.5
0
7.5
15.0
22.5
30.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
2.92.82.52.4
15.4
10.0
-3.2
21.7
3.4
9.911.6
UK Inflation Manufacturing Prices (I)
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA
% change year on year
Thursday, 23 May 13
$0
$30
$60
$90
$120
$150
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
The Saturday Economist johnashcroft.co.uk
Weekly Series
$ I II III IV
2010 76.35 78.37 77.49 87.28
2011 104.79 116.57 113.57 109.16
2012 118.83 107.57 110.51 109.76
2013 112.11 105.00 115.00 118.00
Oil Price Brent Crude $ Qtr Data
Forecasts
John Ashcroft.co.uk
Oil Price Watch ......
Data Set
Thursday, 23 May 13
0
30.0
60.0
90.0
120.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
120.00118.00115.00
111.87111.23
79.87
60.93
98.98
72.49
65.20
54.58
Oil Prices - Brent Crude $
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA Thursday, 23 May 13
0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
2.4
2.0
1.5
1.8
2.4
1.9
1.5
3.5
3.94.14.1
UK Earnings
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA
% change year on year
Thursday, 23 May 13
-3.0
-2.3
-1.5
-0.8
0
0.8
1.5
2.3
3.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
-0.1
-0.5
-0.9-1.0
-2.1
-1.4
-0.7
-0.1
1.51.8
2.1
UK Real Earnings (CPI basis)
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA
% change year on year
Thursday, 23 May 13
500.0
775.0
1050.0
1325.0
1600.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
1,400.0
1,460.01,500.0
1,586.71,532.3
1,497.11,529.1
906.0863.3
944.7
862.1
UK Unemployment - claimant count
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA
000s
1,525
Thursday, 23 May 13
750.0
1312.5
1875.0
2437.5
3000.0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
2,381.0
2,544.02,655.02,687.0
2,547.02,479.0
2,394.0
1,783.0
1,654.0
UK Unemployment - LFS basis 000
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA
000s
Thursday, 23 May 13
3.0
4.5
6.0
7.5
9.0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
7.4
7.9
8.38.4
8.07.97.6
5.75.4
UK Unemployment - LFS basis %
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA Thursday, 23 May 13
UK Unemployment - U V ratio
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA Thursday, 23 May 13
-5.0
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
U : V Ratio Inverted
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AprilClaimant Count : Vacancies Ratio
Recession Recovery
Recovery
Thursday, 23 May 13
0
1.5
3.0
4.5
6.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
1.20
0.750.500.500.500.50
0.65
4.68
5.51
4.644.65
Interest Rates - UK Base rate
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA Thursday, 23 May 13
0
1.5
3.0
4.5
6.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
1.20
0.750.500.500.500.50
0.65
4.68
5.51
4.644.65
Interest Rates - UK Base rate
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA
May
Thursday, 23 May 13
0
1.5
3.0
4.5
6.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
3.10
2.75
2.40
1.91
3.10
3.613.65
4.59
5.01
4.504.41
Interest Rates - Ten Year Gilt Rates
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA Thursday, 23 May 13
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
2005/6 2007/8 2009/10 2011/12 2013/14 2015/16
88,000
99,000105,000
119,500120,904
140,944
158,923
97,539
36,71933,07637,933
Government Borrowing PSNBR £
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA
£000excludes pension fund and gilt transfers
Thursday, 23 May 13
0
3.0
6.0
9.0
12.0
2005/6 2007/8 2009/10 2011/12 2013/14 2015/16
4.9
5.76.2
8.28.0
9.6
11.2
6.8
2.62.73.1
Government Borrowing PSNBR % GDP
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA
% GDP
Thursday, 23 May 13
0
500.0
1,000.0
1,500.0
2,000.0
2005/6 2007/8 2009/10 2011/12 2013/14 2015/16
1,502.01,398.0
1,286.01,189.0
1,103.71,001.5
828.7
624.0527.2497.8461.7
Government Borrowing £million
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA
2005/6 2006/7 2007/8 2008/9 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15
35.1 35.8 36.4 44.5 57.1 66.6 71.8 75.4 81.1 82.2
% of GDP
Thursday, 23 May 13
-10.0
-7.5
-5.0
-2.5
0
2.5
5.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
2.21.5
-0.5
-1.5
2.2
3.8
-9.7
-2.5
0.8
1.7
0
Manufacturing %
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA
% change year on year
-2.4% Q1
Thursday, 23 May 13
-15.0
-11.3
-7.5
-3.8
0
3.8
7.5
11.3
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
1.91.5
-2.5
-8.0
2.4
8.0
-13.4
-2.7
2.10.8
-2.5
Construction %
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA
% change year on year
Thursday, 23 May 13
50
100
150
200
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Public New Pvt New Pvt Repairs All Work
Thursday, 23 May 13
-3.8
-2.5
-1.3
0
1.3
2.5
3.8
5.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
2.5
2.0
1.51.21.3
1.1
-2.2
-0.2
4.7
4.1
3.1
Service Sector %
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA
% change year on year
GDP(O) Q1
Distribution Transport Business Non Govt Govt
2009 -4.3 -6.1 -3.7 -4.3 2.7
2010 1.4 1.4 0.8 1.1 0.6
2011 0.9 0.9 1.8 1.4 1.0
2012 0.7 0.7 1.3 1.0 2.0
Hotels Leisure Storage,Comms Financial
Thursday, 23 May 13
-1.0
0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
1.8
1.51.41.3
0.4
-0.4
0.3
1.0
3.0
3.33.2
Retail Sales
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA
% change year on year
Thursday, 23 May 13
1.5
1.7
1.9
2.1
2.3
2.5
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
2.4
2.3
2.2
2.0
1.9
2.02.0
2.1
2.4
2.3
2.4
UK Car Sales Million
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA
Million Units
Thursday, 23 May 13
0.5
0.8
1.0
1.3
1.5
1.8
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
1.8
1.7
1.6
1.5
1.3
1.3
1.0
1.4
1.5
1.4
1.6
UK Car Manufacturing
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA
Million Units
Thursday, 23 May 13
0.5
0.7
0.9
1.2
1.4
1.6
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
1.5
1.4
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.0
0.8
1.31.3
1.2
1.4
UK Car Exports
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA
Million Units
Thursday, 23 May 13
1.5
1.6
1.8
1.9
2.1
2.2
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
2.2
2.1
2.0
1.9
1.81.8
1.8
1.9
2.2
2.1
2.2
UK Car Imports
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA
Million Units
Thursday, 23 May 13
-1.0
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
-0.6-0.6-0.6-0.6-0.6
-0.8
-1.0
-0.7
-0.9-0.9
-0.8
UK Car Net Trade Balance
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA
Million Units
Thursday, 23 May 13
0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
15.514.5
13.512.5
10.2
7.6
6.5
5.3
3.7
Retail Sales - online
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA
% of total retail sales
Thursday, 23 May 13
-120.0
-102.5
-85.0
-67.5
-50.0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
-115.1-112.1
-109.1-106.6
-100.2-97.2
-82.4
-93.1-89.8
Trade in Goods Deficit £ billions
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA
£ billions chain linked series
Thursday, 23 May 13
0
22.5
45.0
67.5
90.0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
84.0
79.075.0
68.9
76.3
50.852.755.4
46.8
Trade in Services Surplus £ billions
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA
£ billions chain linked series
Thursday, 23 May 13
-50.0
-37.5
-25.0
-12.5
0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
-31.1-33.1
-23.9
-37.1
-23.9
-46.4
-29.7
-37.8
-43.0
Trade in Goods and Services £ billions
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA
£ billions chain linked series
Thursday, 23 May 13
-9.0
-6.8
-4.5
-2.3
0
2.3
4.5
6.8
9.0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
1.51.0
0.10.1
-0.2
5.8
-7.1-6.7
9.0
House Prices - UK
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA
% change on prior year
Thursday, 23 May 13
0
100.0
200.0
300.0
400.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
165.4157.5150.0142.9140.9135.3143.3
245.0
362.8345.4
288.3
Mortgage Activity - UK
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA
£ Billions
Thursday, 23 May 13
Nationwide House Price Index
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA Thursday, 23 May 13
Mortgage Activity - UK
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA Thursday, 23 May 13
Mortgage Activity - UK
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA Thursday, 23 May 13
Mortgage Activity - UK
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA Thursday, 23 May 13
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA
Exchange Rates
Thursday, 23 May 13
Exchange Rates
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
201320122011201020092008200720062005
Sterling Euro
Thursday, 23 May 13
Exchange Rates
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA
Sterling Dollar
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
2.25
201320122011201020092008200720062005
Thursday, 23 May 13
Exchange RatesSterling is expected to hold against the dollar and appreciate slightly against the Euro as interest rate spreads narrow and Euroland worries persist
Further dollar weakness against the Renminbi is expected.
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
£ : $ 2.00 1.85 1.57 1.55 1.61 1.58 1.56 1.56 1.56
£ : € 1.46 1.26 1.12 1.17 1.15 1.23 1.26 1.28 1.28
£: ¥ 235.6 191.3 146.9 136.1 128.6 126.5 112.3 107.6 103.1
$: € 1.37 1.47 1.40 1.32 1.39 1.28 1.25 1.22 1.22
¥:$ 117.8 103.4 93.6 87.8 79.9 79.8 72.0 69.0 66.1
Yuan:$ 7.61 6.95 6.83 6.77 6.47 6.47 6.25 6.00 5.75
¥:Yuan 15.48 14.88 13.70 12.96 12.35 11.59 11.52 11.50 11.49
Thursday, 23 May 13
Dow Jones
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
11000
12000
13000
14000
15000
16000
201320122011201020092008200720062005
Dow Jones
Thursday, 23 May 13
FTSE
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
5500
6000
6500
7000
201320122011201020092008200720062005
FTSE
Thursday, 23 May 13
Stock Market Equity Risk Premium
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA Thursday, 23 May 13
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
92.3
87.9
83.7
78.6
68.0
57.058.4
67.1
63.1
60.1
57.2
Stock Market Dividend Payments UK
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA
£ billions
e e f f f
Thursday, 23 May 13
Gold Price US $ per oz
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA Thursday, 23 May 13
Policy Priorities
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA
Exports
Banking Regions
Infrastructure
Thursday, 23 May 13
IMF Visit May 2013
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA Thursday, 23 May 13
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA Thursday, 23 May 13
May 2013Economics ReviewThursday, 23 May 13
The UK Economy 2005 - 2015 Forecasts
John Ashcro f t i s Ch ie f Execut ive o f pro.manchester, a director of Marketing Manchester and a visiting professor at MMU Business School specialising in Macro Economics and Corporate Strategy.
Educated at the London School of Economics and London Business School with a PhD in macro economics from MMU.
The material is based upon information which we consider to be reliable but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. We accept no liability for errors, or omissions of opinion or fact.
In particular, no reliance should be placed on the comments or trends in financial markets. The publication of this document should not be construed as the giving of investment advice.
www.johnashcroft.co.uk
GDPInflation CPIEarnings - whole economyUnemployment - claimant countUnemployment - LFS basisBase Rates Ten Year GiltsOil Price - Brent crudePSNBR £PSNBR %ManufacturingRetail SalesOn line salesTrade in GoodsTrade in ServicesOverall BalanceHouse PricesExchange Rates
Exogenous Assumptions : Growth in China - USA recovery - no Euro collapse
Thursday, 23 May 13
