Economics and Forecasting Let the Dice Fly High March 11, 2015.
9
Economics and Forecasting Let the Dice Fly High March 11, 2015
-
Upload
dortha-morton -
Category
Documents
-
view
216 -
download
1
Transcript of Economics and Forecasting Let the Dice Fly High March 11, 2015.
Economics and Forecasting
Let the Dice Fly High
March 11, 2015
2
Employment Growth In the Mid-Atlantic
• Employment is indexed for 2008=100%. Expectations are being revised down over time.
85%
90%
95%
100%
105%
110%
115%
(200
8 =
100
%)
US (Dec '13) PEPCO (Dec '13) DPL ('Dec '13) ACE (Dec '13)
US (Feb '15) PEPCO (Feb '15) DPL (Feb '15) ACE (Feb '15)
3
Employment Growth in South Jersey
• Atlantic City reflects recent from casino closings. Ocean City has benefitted from Superstorm Sandy Cycle One funding.
4
Philly Fed Survey of the SJ Chamber of Commerce
• Actual hiring/layoffs in South Jersey closely tracks the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank Survey of the South Jersey Chamber of Commerce.
5
SJ Commercial Space Rents and Vacancies
• 1.9 million sf under construction is south of the Walt Whitman Bridge.
08:QIV 09:QIV 10:QIV 11:QIV 12:QIV 13:QIV 13:QIV
Inventory (sf) 74,113,113 76,899,577 77,343,119 77,206,119 78,323,621 78,323,621 79,227,046Overall Vacancy Rate (%) 7.3% 9.6% 9.7% 8.1% 6.0% 6.0% 4.9%Under Construction (sf) 585,782 0 0 0 336,091 336,091 1,945,768YTD Construction Completed (sf) 1,315,571 810,282 225,000 0 596,050 596,050 591,908Direct Wtd Avg Net Rental Rate ($/sf)
Manufacturing 4.39$ 3.56$ 3.08$ 2.83$ 2.70$ 3.59$ 3.00$ Office Service 7.69$ 8.40$ 7.67$ 7.22$ 6.88$ 9.06$ 6.88$
Warehouse/Distribution 4.61$ 4.17$ 3.91$ 3.89$ 3.96$ 4.22$ 4.17$
6
Atlantic City Real Gaming Revenues/sf (2014 $)
Inflation adjusted gaming revenues per square foot (2014 $)
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
Gam
ing
Reve
nues
/sf (
2014
$)
Gaming Revenues per SF Las Vegas
7
Atlantic City Gaming Revenues Winners and Losers
Gaming Revenues per sf of gaming floor space by casino
2013 2014 (Est.)
The Atlantic Club Casino Hotel 1,896.54$ Bally's Atlantic City 2,345.68$ 1,882.24$ Borgata Hotel Casino & SPA 4,578.45$ 4,704.66$ Caesars (Boardwalk Regency Corporation) 3,045.31$ 2,869.67$ Golden Nugget Atlantic City, LLC 1,752.15$ 2,419.10$ Harrah's Resort, Atlantic City 2,317.56$ 2,360.27$ Resorts (DGMB Casino, LLC) 1,616.87$ 1,712.80$ Revel Entertainment Group, LLC 1,224.61$ Atlantic City Showboat, INC 1,781.24$ Tropicana Casino and Resort 1,844.23$ 2,200.70$ Trump Plaza Associates, LLC 855.27$ Trump Taj Mahal Associates, LLC 1,632.84$ 1,349.22$
TOTAL INDUSTRY 2,149.06$ 2,455.58$
8
Atlantic City Visitation
Atlantic City Visitation Index – combines Expressway traffic, AC Airport arrivals, NJ Transit rail arrivals and chartered bus arrivals.
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Mill
ions
Atlantic City Annual Visitor Days
Visitation Non-Bus Visitation
