Economic Update August 2017 - WordPress.com€¦ · and by six months during periods of normal...
Transcript of Economic Update August 2017 - WordPress.com€¦ · and by six months during periods of normal...
8/25/2017 © 2017 CareerBuilder
Economic UpdateAugust 2017
Derek Harvey
Senior Sales Executive – Enterprise Sales
2nd Qtr. GDP: +2.6% (Advanced Estimate)
SUMMARY & GDP
Sources: Wall Street Journal, Bureau of Economic Analysis
The Numbers: July Jobs Report (Wall Street Journal)
209,000: The economy created 209,000 jobs in July, well above this year’s average monthly gain of
184,000. It added 231,000 jobs in June. Job growth this year is just a touch below last year’s average
monthly increase of 187,000. The takeaway: The labor market’s long expansion is showing no signs
of exhaustion. There’s still room to run.
4.3%: The jobless rate fell by a tenth of percentage point to 4.3%, matching May as the lowest level
of unemployment in 16 years. It declined despite an expansion in the labor force. That suggests the
growing labor market is slowly drawing more Americans off the sidelines and into the job search,
and that employers are hiring many of them. The drop could also nudge the Federal Reserve closer
to raising interest rates. Unemployment is already below the Fed’s projection for long-run
joblessness of between 4.5% and 4.8%.
2.5%: The average hourly wage for private-sector workers grew 2.5% in July. That’s a modest pace
historically, but it looks better when considering inflation is so low. Real wages are growing at a solid
pace. Over the month, average hourly wages grew 9 cents on average, or 0.34%.
62.9%: The share of Americans holding jobs or actively looking for work rose a tenth of a percentage
point last month to 62.9%. That’s very slight progress. Labor-force participation is still depressed
overall, and it’s only increased a tenth of percentage point over the past year despite the strong
hiring.
8.6%: A measure underemployment—one that takes into account jobless workers, reluctant part-
time workers and Americans too discouraged to look for work—remained at 8.6%. That’s two tenths
of percentage point higher than May’s level, though it’s down more than a point from the prior year.
2015 2016 2017
Components of GDP 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2ndConsumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)
1.80% 1.23% 2.57% 1.92% 1.99% 1.32% 1.93%
Business (Gross Private Domestic Investment)
-1.08% -0.68% -0.45% 0.40% 1.34% -0.20% 0.34%
Net Exports (Exports-Imports) -0.28% -0.28% 0.28% 0.36% -1.61% 0.22% 0.18%
Government 0.05% 0.32% -0.16% 0.09% 0.03% -0.11% 0.12%
Total GDP 0.49% 0.59% 2.24% 2.77% 1.75% 1.23% 2.57%
*Inventories -0.68% -0.64% -0.67% 0.16% 1.06% -1.46% -0.02%
© 2015 CareerBuilder3
Unemployment Rate: 4.3% 0.1%
Number of people employed as a temporary employee divided by total non farm payroll employment
Temp EmploymentTemporary help services Added 14,700 jobs.
Why is the Temp Penetration Rate Important?“Temporary Help Employment is a Leading Indicator for Nonfarm Employment—Staffing job trends lead nonfarm employment by three months when the economy is emerging from a recession and by six months during periods of normal economic growth.”American Staffing Association
US Employment SituationTemp Penetration Rate: 2.07% unchanged Job Loss/Gain: +209,000 Jobs
I
Unemployment Rate: Bachelor’s Degree or Higher
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, American Staffing Association
Nonfarm Payroll –Job Growth Details
Jobs Added/Lost
Private Sector 205,000
Government Sector 4,000
Total 209,000
Mar Apr May June July2.5% 2.4% 2.3% 2.4% 2.4%
Job Gains Change from
Previous Month
Leisure and Hospitality 62,000
Profesional & Business Services 49,000
Manufacturing 16,000
Financial Activities 6,000
Construction 6,000
Government 4,000
Retail Trade 900
Education & Health Services 54,000
- Healthcare 39,400
- Social Assistance 5,600
- Education 9,800
© 2017 CareerBuilder
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GDP Projections Survey of Economists (Wall Street Journal)
Getting PaidWages, Change from a year earlier
Projections, Trends & Wages
Source: Wall Street JournalPlease note: WSJ Projections were released prior to the BLS report,
Unemployment Rate ProjectionsSurvey of Economist (Wall Street Journal)
Out of Work (Alternative Measures of Unemployment)Alternate measures of the unemployment and under employment rate