Economic Statistics Review Group Report...2014-Q1 2014-Q2 2014-Q3 2014-Q4 2015-Q1 2015-Q2 2015-Q3...
Transcript of Economic Statistics Review Group Report...2014-Q1 2014-Q2 2014-Q3 2014-Q4 2015-Q1 2015-Q2 2015-Q3...
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Economic Statistics Review Group Report
February 3, 2017
Briefing on Report and CSO Response
www.cso.ie
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ESRG – Report
• Report welcomed
• 13 recommendations across 5 main themes
– Level Indicators
– Structural Indicators
– Cyclical Indicators
– Communications
– Co-operation
• Focus on insight into domestic economic activity
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Implementation
• Multi-year programme to deliver recommendations
– Short-term (during 2017) and longer-term deliverables
• CSO will take incremental approach – initial development, focusing on annual analyses and then review
• Focus in 2017 will be on:
– Modified Gross National Income indicator GNI*
– Large Case vs Other firms view in Sector Accounts
– Additional detail on intellectual property products (IPP), aircraft leasing & contract manufacturing
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Level Indicator
• Gross National Income* (GNI*)
– GNI adjusted for retained earnings of re-domiciled firms and depreciation on foreign-owned domestic capital assets
• Modified measure of the size or level of economy
• Additional and useful input to economic modelling and analysis, including use “under the line” for ratio analysis
• Top-down approach to developing GNI*
‒ Annual series initially in mid-2017, with focus on re-domiciled firms and depreciation related to intellectual property products
‒ Longer-term: quarterly series at current and constant prices
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Level Indicator - Illustration
-40,000
-20,000
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
2014-Q1 2014-Q2 2014-Q3 2014-Q4 2015-Q1 2015-Q2 2015-Q3 2015-Q4 2016-Q1 2016-Q2 2016-Q3
GNI * Proxy: GNI less Depreciation for Large Case firms
GDP NFF LCU GNI* GDP
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Structural Indicators
• Insight into foreign-owned MNE vs Domestic ownership view of the economy
• Initially, CSO to include breakdown of the non-financial sector into Large Case and Other firms in October 2017 annual sector accounts
– Large Case firms dominate the non-financial MNEs
• Longer-term:
– Expand the breakdown for foreign-owned MNEs beyond the Large Cases firms
– Expand the breakdown into other presentations of the national accounts data
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Example: Extended Sector Accounts
S11
Non-
Financial
Corporations
S12
Financial Corporations
S13
Government
S1M
Households
and NPISH
S2
Rest of World
S11
Foreign-owned MNEs
incl. Large Case firms
S11
Domestic incl. Irish
MNEs
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MNE & LCU Dominance 2015 Data
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0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Turnover GoodsExports
GoodsImports
ServicesExports
ServicesImports
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Structural Indicators MNE vs Domestic
• Foreign-owned vs domestic view of economic structure
• Initially use Large Case vs Other firms split
• Ultimately build up from the micro (company) data for all foreign-owned firms
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Total Gross Value Added
(€bn)
Foreign-owned firms
(€bn)
Domestic firms
(€bn)
% Foreign-
owned
177 42 (Large Case firms) 135 24.0%
177 58 (Large Case + all other firms
with foreign marker) 119 32.9%
Estimated split of foreign/domestic value added (2014) based on sources of foreign marker
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Cyclical Indicators
• Expanded component analysis of Expenditure side of National Accounts – Additional detail on globalisation-related activities
• To support development of additional measures of underlying investment, additional detail in mid-2017 on – Intellectual property product relocations
– Aircraft leasing
– Re-domiciled firms
– Contract manufacturing in Exports and Imports data
• With the Structural Indicators, will give good information of effect of globalisation on Irish economy
• Longer-term work: annual and quarterly Net National Product (NNP) at current and constant prices
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Net National Product
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20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
55,000
60,000
GNP and NNP
NNP Total Economy GNP Total Economy
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Key Messages • CSO welcomes report and thanks the Chair and members
• Focus of the Group - analyses or indicators that would provide a better understanding of the domestic components of highly globalised Irish economy
• GDP and GNP continue to be the international standard indicators
• GNI* proposed to address the specific nature of the Irish economy
• Additional structural and cyclical measures recommended to give users more broad-based information on the Irish economy
• Implementation will be incremental with some of the new measures available in mid-2017 at time of annual National Income and Expenditure results
• Progress will be kept under review and feedback will be sought from users on developments
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