ECONOMIC RESEARCH CORPORATION

REPORT ON

THE CHIGNECTO CANAL

I I

THE CHIGNECTO I CANALI

I I PREPARED FOR

THE CHIGNECTO CANAL COMMITTEEI I I I

SUBMITTED BY

I Donald E ARMSTRONG BA BComm PhD

D Harvey HAY MA PhD

I 1

ECONOMIC RESEARCH CORPORATION LIMITED

II 1255 University Street Montreal P Q

1

1r ERC PROJECT No 196 CC

APRIL 1960It

[1

m

This report contains the results of a preliminary investigashytion into the economic effects of a ship canal across the Chignecto Isthmus In this report it has been assumed in accordance with the findings of the Surveyer Commission that the canal is feasible from a technical point of view and usable from a climatic point of view

THE CHIGNECTO CANAL

QUEBEC

SHERBROOKE ( ~ bull -r

CANADA I US- BAR KD~IIsectampILI

PORTSMOUTH

Springhill

SCALE OF MILES

10 5 0 10 20 I E3 I I

I

SUMMARY

1 The Chignecto Canal would provide a passage for ships between the Fundy Bay and Northumberland Strait areas at a cost estimated by Foundation of Canada Engineering Corporation Limited at approxishymately $90 millions

2 The Canal would be the direct cause for the investment of over $105 millions in new industries in the Fundy area as announced to the Chignecto Canal Committee in response to its questionnaire Of this total over $100 millions is the undertaking of the K C Irving intershyests conditional upon the construction of the Canal

The stimulus this new investment would give to regional industry makes the Chignecto Canal a primary major development project of the Atlantic region

New plants constructed as a result of the existence of the Chignecto Canal would result in a permanent increase in annual production of the Atlantic Provinces estimated at $280 millions

3 The construction phase of the Canal could result in a temporary inshycrease of $300 millions in Canadian incomes of which $160 millions might be spent in the Atlantic Provinces

4 The net cost to Canada of this step to relieve the depressed conditions of the Atlantic Provinces could be more than counterbalanced by increased revenues from the region

5 The Canal would be a natural extension of the St Lawrence Seaway linking it with a sheltered route for Atlantic coa~tal shipping For the new waterway a laker-type boat could be used which would be cheaper to build and to operate than the ships normally used in ocean travel

6 It appears probable that the very large tidal power potential of the eastern portion of the Bay of Fundy will be economicallymiddot developed in the future This can be achieved without conflict with the construcshytion and operation of the Canal

7 The Surveyer Royal Commission reported favourably on the project in the 1930S on climatic and engineering grounds but influenced by the depression it recommended that construction of the Canal should stand in abeyance until more favourable conditions prevailed Both the conshystruction of the St Lawrence Seaway and the prlt1ent economic advantages of the Canal combine to make the project highly desirable now to aid the depressed economies of the Atlantic Provinces

THE CHIGNECTO CANAL-The dotted line indicates potential shipping routes through the Chignecto Canal linking the St Lawrence and Northumberland Strait areas with the Bay of Fundy and the US Atlantic coast Inset three possible variants of the Canal are shown

I From Cumberland Basin to Baie Verte along the Missaguash River

z A waterway along the course of the Memramshycook River and a canal to Shediac Bay

3 A waterway along the course of the PetitlQdiac River and a canal to Shediac Bay

The dams for tidal power projects which may be deshyveloped in future are indicated in red (see page 18)

II

A BRIEF HISTORY

The first suggestion for a canal through the Chignecto Isthmus was made in 1686 by Jacques de Meulles Intendant of New France The subject has continued to be discussed since then Twelve major engineering reports have been submitted on the project and three separate Royal Comshymissions have examined and reported on it The engineering feasibility of the canal has never been disputed The principal economic argument against its construction appears to have been that at the particular times this was under consideration Canada was in an economic depression and a large capital expenditure was considered not to be appropriate It must be remembered that for most of this period the idea that governments might in part fight recessions by means of public works was unknown

In 1871 a Royal Commission under the chairmanship of Sir Hugh Allan placed the canal among a group which it recommended for the general interest of the Dominion should be undertaken and proceeded with as fast as the means at the disposal of the Government will warrant At that time the country was in the midst of negotiations with the United States for restoration of the Reciprocity Agreement and the United States commissioners exerted pressure for enlargement of the WeIland Canal

With attention thus focussed on the canals of Central Canada the Chignecto Canal (or Baie Verte Canal as it was then called) became the only canal strongly endorsed by the Allan Commission which was not built

In 1880 Mr H G C Ketchum suggested that a marine railway be constructed to bridge the isthmus A company was formed to build the railroad and a Federal subsidy was voted provided the railway was comshypleted by July 1 1890 Ketchum experienced difficulty raising the necessary capital and the time for completion of the railroad was extended to 1893 When the railway was three-quarters completed Ketchum again ran into difficulties attempting to raise the money By June 1894 he had sufficient capital to complete the railway but a bill allowing a further extension of time was defeated in 1896 by a vote of 55 to 54 The railway was never completed

The last investigation of the subject by a Commission under the chairmanship of Dr Arthur Surveyer in the 1930S approved the engineershying and climatic aspects of the Canal This Commission was stPOngly inshyfluenced by the prevailing economic depression and recommended that the project be allowed to stand in abeyance until it could be further examined in the light of future development of Canadas economic situation

6

This Commission found that the Chignecto Canal was technically feasible as either a half-tide or full-tide project but that the advantages of a full-tide canal over a half-tide canal outweighed the disadvantage of relatively small additional cost It also found that The fog study incorshyporated in our report and the statement of fog percentages based on twenty years of observation indicate that Bay of Fundy waters are subject to rather less fog than is found on the Atlantic shore of Nova Scotia The probable savings in transportation costs found by the Commission were roughly comparable to those estimated in this report At that time these savings formed the only arguments for the Chignecto Canal Today transshyportation savings are a subsidiary argument The phenomenal developshyment of the Canadian economy which has greatly changed the prevailing financial conditions noted by the Surveyer Commission has been shared only partially by the Atlantic Provinces Today the chief argument for the Chignecto Canal is that it will be of primary importance in aiding the depressed economies of the Atlantic Provinces

III

ECONOMIC EFFECTS ON THE ATLANTICREGI0N

The areas which would benefit most immediately Jrom industrial development as a result of the Chignecto Canal are probably the Bay of Fundy and Northumberland Strait areas of Nova Scotia New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island the north shores of Nova Scotia and New Bninsshywick and the western coast of Newfoundland However a longer view of growth resulting from the Canal should also consider developments which are now taking place or will take place not only in the Maritime Provinces but also on the St Lawrence north shore in Labrador and in south bound traffic along the St Lawrence River

In Newfoundland there are several promising mineral areas parshyticularly in the western part Surveying is carried on actively although it is slow because of the few outcrop pings Several areas have been proved to be rich in minerals The Central Mineral Belt extends southward from the regions around Notre Dame Bay and contains base metals Another promisshying area is the Ultrabasic Complex or the West Newfoundland Igneous

7

I I

THE CHIGNECTO I CANALI

I I PREPARED FOR

THE CHIGNECTO CANAL COMMITTEEI I I I

SUBMITTED BY

I Donald E ARMSTRONG BA BComm PhD

D Harvey HAY MA PhD

I 1

ECONOMIC RESEARCH CORPORATION LIMITED

II 1255 University Street Montreal P Q

1

1r ERC PROJECT No 196 CC

APRIL 1960It

[1

m

This report contains the results of a preliminary investigashytion into the economic effects of a ship canal across the Chignecto Isthmus In this report it has been assumed in accordance with the findings of the Surveyer Commission that the canal is feasible from a technical point of view and usable from a climatic point of view

THE CHIGNECTO CANAL

QUEBEC

SHERBROOKE ( ~ bull -r

CANADA I US- BAR KD~IIsectampILI

PORTSMOUTH

Springhill

SCALE OF MILES

10 5 0 10 20 I E3 I I

I

SUMMARY

1 The Chignecto Canal would provide a passage for ships between the Fundy Bay and Northumberland Strait areas at a cost estimated by Foundation of Canada Engineering Corporation Limited at approxishymately $90 millions

2 The Canal would be the direct cause for the investment of over $105 millions in new industries in the Fundy area as announced to the Chignecto Canal Committee in response to its questionnaire Of this total over $100 millions is the undertaking of the K C Irving intershyests conditional upon the construction of the Canal

The stimulus this new investment would give to regional industry makes the Chignecto Canal a primary major development project of the Atlantic region

New plants constructed as a result of the existence of the Chignecto Canal would result in a permanent increase in annual production of the Atlantic Provinces estimated at $280 millions

3 The construction phase of the Canal could result in a temporary inshycrease of $300 millions in Canadian incomes of which $160 millions might be spent in the Atlantic Provinces

4 The net cost to Canada of this step to relieve the depressed conditions of the Atlantic Provinces could be more than counterbalanced by increased revenues from the region

5 The Canal would be a natural extension of the St Lawrence Seaway linking it with a sheltered route for Atlantic coa~tal shipping For the new waterway a laker-type boat could be used which would be cheaper to build and to operate than the ships normally used in ocean travel

6 It appears probable that the very large tidal power potential of the eastern portion of the Bay of Fundy will be economicallymiddot developed in the future This can be achieved without conflict with the construcshytion and operation of the Canal

7 The Surveyer Royal Commission reported favourably on the project in the 1930S on climatic and engineering grounds but influenced by the depression it recommended that construction of the Canal should stand in abeyance until more favourable conditions prevailed Both the conshystruction of the St Lawrence Seaway and the prlt1ent economic advantages of the Canal combine to make the project highly desirable now to aid the depressed economies of the Atlantic Provinces

THE CHIGNECTO CANAL-The dotted line indicates potential shipping routes through the Chignecto Canal linking the St Lawrence and Northumberland Strait areas with the Bay of Fundy and the US Atlantic coast Inset three possible variants of the Canal are shown

I From Cumberland Basin to Baie Verte along the Missaguash River

z A waterway along the course of the Memramshycook River and a canal to Shediac Bay

3 A waterway along the course of the PetitlQdiac River and a canal to Shediac Bay

The dams for tidal power projects which may be deshyveloped in future are indicated in red (see page 18)

II

A BRIEF HISTORY

The first suggestion for a canal through the Chignecto Isthmus was made in 1686 by Jacques de Meulles Intendant of New France The subject has continued to be discussed since then Twelve major engineering reports have been submitted on the project and three separate Royal Comshymissions have examined and reported on it The engineering feasibility of the canal has never been disputed The principal economic argument against its construction appears to have been that at the particular times this was under consideration Canada was in an economic depression and a large capital expenditure was considered not to be appropriate It must be remembered that for most of this period the idea that governments might in part fight recessions by means of public works was unknown

In 1871 a Royal Commission under the chairmanship of Sir Hugh Allan placed the canal among a group which it recommended for the general interest of the Dominion should be undertaken and proceeded with as fast as the means at the disposal of the Government will warrant At that time the country was in the midst of negotiations with the United States for restoration of the Reciprocity Agreement and the United States commissioners exerted pressure for enlargement of the WeIland Canal

With attention thus focussed on the canals of Central Canada the Chignecto Canal (or Baie Verte Canal as it was then called) became the only canal strongly endorsed by the Allan Commission which was not built

In 1880 Mr H G C Ketchum suggested that a marine railway be constructed to bridge the isthmus A company was formed to build the railroad and a Federal subsidy was voted provided the railway was comshypleted by July 1 1890 Ketchum experienced difficulty raising the necessary capital and the time for completion of the railroad was extended to 1893 When the railway was three-quarters completed Ketchum again ran into difficulties attempting to raise the money By June 1894 he had sufficient capital to complete the railway but a bill allowing a further extension of time was defeated in 1896 by a vote of 55 to 54 The railway was never completed

The last investigation of the subject by a Commission under the chairmanship of Dr Arthur Surveyer in the 1930S approved the engineershying and climatic aspects of the Canal This Commission was stPOngly inshyfluenced by the prevailing economic depression and recommended that the project be allowed to stand in abeyance until it could be further examined in the light of future development of Canadas economic situation

6

This Commission found that the Chignecto Canal was technically feasible as either a half-tide or full-tide project but that the advantages of a full-tide canal over a half-tide canal outweighed the disadvantage of relatively small additional cost It also found that The fog study incorshyporated in our report and the statement of fog percentages based on twenty years of observation indicate that Bay of Fundy waters are subject to rather less fog than is found on the Atlantic shore of Nova Scotia The probable savings in transportation costs found by the Commission were roughly comparable to those estimated in this report At that time these savings formed the only arguments for the Chignecto Canal Today transshyportation savings are a subsidiary argument The phenomenal developshyment of the Canadian economy which has greatly changed the prevailing financial conditions noted by the Surveyer Commission has been shared only partially by the Atlantic Provinces Today the chief argument for the Chignecto Canal is that it will be of primary importance in aiding the depressed economies of the Atlantic Provinces

III

ECONOMIC EFFECTS ON THE ATLANTICREGI0N

The areas which would benefit most immediately Jrom industrial development as a result of the Chignecto Canal are probably the Bay of Fundy and Northumberland Strait areas of Nova Scotia New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island the north shores of Nova Scotia and New Bninsshywick and the western coast of Newfoundland However a longer view of growth resulting from the Canal should also consider developments which are now taking place or will take place not only in the Maritime Provinces but also on the St Lawrence north shore in Labrador and in south bound traffic along the St Lawrence River

In Newfoundland there are several promising mineral areas parshyticularly in the western part Surveying is carried on actively although it is slow because of the few outcrop pings Several areas have been proved to be rich in minerals The Central Mineral Belt extends southward from the regions around Notre Dame Bay and contains base metals Another promisshying area is the Ultrabasic Complex or the West Newfoundland Igneous

7

This report contains the results of a preliminary investigashytion into the economic effects of a ship canal across the Chignecto Isthmus In this report it has been assumed in accordance with the findings of the Surveyer Commission that the canal is feasible from a technical point of view and usable from a climatic point of view

THE CHIGNECTO CANAL

QUEBEC

SHERBROOKE ( ~ bull -r

CANADA I US- BAR KD~IIsectampILI

PORTSMOUTH

Springhill

SCALE OF MILES

10 5 0 10 20 I E3 I I

I

SUMMARY

1 The Chignecto Canal would provide a passage for ships between the Fundy Bay and Northumberland Strait areas at a cost estimated by Foundation of Canada Engineering Corporation Limited at approxishymately $90 millions

2 The Canal would be the direct cause for the investment of over $105 millions in new industries in the Fundy area as announced to the Chignecto Canal Committee in response to its questionnaire Of this total over $100 millions is the undertaking of the K C Irving intershyests conditional upon the construction of the Canal

The stimulus this new investment would give to regional industry makes the Chignecto Canal a primary major development project of the Atlantic region

New plants constructed as a result of the existence of the Chignecto Canal would result in a permanent increase in annual production of the Atlantic Provinces estimated at $280 millions

3 The construction phase of the Canal could result in a temporary inshycrease of $300 millions in Canadian incomes of which $160 millions might be spent in the Atlantic Provinces

4 The net cost to Canada of this step to relieve the depressed conditions of the Atlantic Provinces could be more than counterbalanced by increased revenues from the region

5 The Canal would be a natural extension of the St Lawrence Seaway linking it with a sheltered route for Atlantic coa~tal shipping For the new waterway a laker-type boat could be used which would be cheaper to build and to operate than the ships normally used in ocean travel

6 It appears probable that the very large tidal power potential of the eastern portion of the Bay of Fundy will be economicallymiddot developed in the future This can be achieved without conflict with the construcshytion and operation of the Canal

7 The Surveyer Royal Commission reported favourably on the project in the 1930S on climatic and engineering grounds but influenced by the depression it recommended that construction of the Canal should stand in abeyance until more favourable conditions prevailed Both the conshystruction of the St Lawrence Seaway and the prlt1ent economic advantages of the Canal combine to make the project highly desirable now to aid the depressed economies of the Atlantic Provinces

THE CHIGNECTO CANAL-The dotted line indicates potential shipping routes through the Chignecto Canal linking the St Lawrence and Northumberland Strait areas with the Bay of Fundy and the US Atlantic coast Inset three possible variants of the Canal are shown

I From Cumberland Basin to Baie Verte along the Missaguash River

z A waterway along the course of the Memramshycook River and a canal to Shediac Bay

3 A waterway along the course of the PetitlQdiac River and a canal to Shediac Bay

The dams for tidal power projects which may be deshyveloped in future are indicated in red (see page 18)

II

A BRIEF HISTORY

The first suggestion for a canal through the Chignecto Isthmus was made in 1686 by Jacques de Meulles Intendant of New France The subject has continued to be discussed since then Twelve major engineering reports have been submitted on the project and three separate Royal Comshymissions have examined and reported on it The engineering feasibility of the canal has never been disputed The principal economic argument against its construction appears to have been that at the particular times this was under consideration Canada was in an economic depression and a large capital expenditure was considered not to be appropriate It must be remembered that for most of this period the idea that governments might in part fight recessions by means of public works was unknown

In 1871 a Royal Commission under the chairmanship of Sir Hugh Allan placed the canal among a group which it recommended for the general interest of the Dominion should be undertaken and proceeded with as fast as the means at the disposal of the Government will warrant At that time the country was in the midst of negotiations with the United States for restoration of the Reciprocity Agreement and the United States commissioners exerted pressure for enlargement of the WeIland Canal

With attention thus focussed on the canals of Central Canada the Chignecto Canal (or Baie Verte Canal as it was then called) became the only canal strongly endorsed by the Allan Commission which was not built

In 1880 Mr H G C Ketchum suggested that a marine railway be constructed to bridge the isthmus A company was formed to build the railroad and a Federal subsidy was voted provided the railway was comshypleted by July 1 1890 Ketchum experienced difficulty raising the necessary capital and the time for completion of the railroad was extended to 1893 When the railway was three-quarters completed Ketchum again ran into difficulties attempting to raise the money By June 1894 he had sufficient capital to complete the railway but a bill allowing a further extension of time was defeated in 1896 by a vote of 55 to 54 The railway was never completed

The last investigation of the subject by a Commission under the chairmanship of Dr Arthur Surveyer in the 1930S approved the engineershying and climatic aspects of the Canal This Commission was stPOngly inshyfluenced by the prevailing economic depression and recommended that the project be allowed to stand in abeyance until it could be further examined in the light of future development of Canadas economic situation

6

This Commission found that the Chignecto Canal was technically feasible as either a half-tide or full-tide project but that the advantages of a full-tide canal over a half-tide canal outweighed the disadvantage of relatively small additional cost It also found that The fog study incorshyporated in our report and the statement of fog percentages based on twenty years of observation indicate that Bay of Fundy waters are subject to rather less fog than is found on the Atlantic shore of Nova Scotia The probable savings in transportation costs found by the Commission were roughly comparable to those estimated in this report At that time these savings formed the only arguments for the Chignecto Canal Today transshyportation savings are a subsidiary argument The phenomenal developshyment of the Canadian economy which has greatly changed the prevailing financial conditions noted by the Surveyer Commission has been shared only partially by the Atlantic Provinces Today the chief argument for the Chignecto Canal is that it will be of primary importance in aiding the depressed economies of the Atlantic Provinces

III

ECONOMIC EFFECTS ON THE ATLANTICREGI0N

The areas which would benefit most immediately Jrom industrial development as a result of the Chignecto Canal are probably the Bay of Fundy and Northumberland Strait areas of Nova Scotia New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island the north shores of Nova Scotia and New Bninsshywick and the western coast of Newfoundland However a longer view of growth resulting from the Canal should also consider developments which are now taking place or will take place not only in the Maritime Provinces but also on the St Lawrence north shore in Labrador and in south bound traffic along the St Lawrence River

In Newfoundland there are several promising mineral areas parshyticularly in the western part Surveying is carried on actively although it is slow because of the few outcrop pings Several areas have been proved to be rich in minerals The Central Mineral Belt extends southward from the regions around Notre Dame Bay and contains base metals Another promisshying area is the Ultrabasic Complex or the West Newfoundland Igneous

7

THE CHIGNECTO CANAL

QUEBEC

SHERBROOKE ( ~ bull -r

CANADA I US- BAR KD~IIsectampILI

PORTSMOUTH

Springhill

SCALE OF MILES

10 5 0 10 20 I E3 I I

I

SUMMARY

1 The Chignecto Canal would provide a passage for ships between the Fundy Bay and Northumberland Strait areas at a cost estimated by Foundation of Canada Engineering Corporation Limited at approxishymately $90 millions

2 The Canal would be the direct cause for the investment of over $105 millions in new industries in the Fundy area as announced to the Chignecto Canal Committee in response to its questionnaire Of this total over $100 millions is the undertaking of the K C Irving intershyests conditional upon the construction of the Canal

The stimulus this new investment would give to regional industry makes the Chignecto Canal a primary major development project of the Atlantic region

New plants constructed as a result of the existence of the Chignecto Canal would result in a permanent increase in annual production of the Atlantic Provinces estimated at $280 millions

3 The construction phase of the Canal could result in a temporary inshycrease of $300 millions in Canadian incomes of which $160 millions might be spent in the Atlantic Provinces

4 The net cost to Canada of this step to relieve the depressed conditions of the Atlantic Provinces could be more than counterbalanced by increased revenues from the region

5 The Canal would be a natural extension of the St Lawrence Seaway linking it with a sheltered route for Atlantic coa~tal shipping For the new waterway a laker-type boat could be used which would be cheaper to build and to operate than the ships normally used in ocean travel

6 It appears probable that the very large tidal power potential of the eastern portion of the Bay of Fundy will be economicallymiddot developed in the future This can be achieved without conflict with the construcshytion and operation of the Canal

7 The Surveyer Royal Commission reported favourably on the project in the 1930S on climatic and engineering grounds but influenced by the depression it recommended that construction of the Canal should stand in abeyance until more favourable conditions prevailed Both the conshystruction of the St Lawrence Seaway and the prlt1ent economic advantages of the Canal combine to make the project highly desirable now to aid the depressed economies of the Atlantic Provinces

THE CHIGNECTO CANAL-The dotted line indicates potential shipping routes through the Chignecto Canal linking the St Lawrence and Northumberland Strait areas with the Bay of Fundy and the US Atlantic coast Inset three possible variants of the Canal are shown

I From Cumberland Basin to Baie Verte along the Missaguash River

z A waterway along the course of the Memramshycook River and a canal to Shediac Bay

3 A waterway along the course of the PetitlQdiac River and a canal to Shediac Bay

The dams for tidal power projects which may be deshyveloped in future are indicated in red (see page 18)

II

A BRIEF HISTORY

The first suggestion for a canal through the Chignecto Isthmus was made in 1686 by Jacques de Meulles Intendant of New France The subject has continued to be discussed since then Twelve major engineering reports have been submitted on the project and three separate Royal Comshymissions have examined and reported on it The engineering feasibility of the canal has never been disputed The principal economic argument against its construction appears to have been that at the particular times this was under consideration Canada was in an economic depression and a large capital expenditure was considered not to be appropriate It must be remembered that for most of this period the idea that governments might in part fight recessions by means of public works was unknown

In 1871 a Royal Commission under the chairmanship of Sir Hugh Allan placed the canal among a group which it recommended for the general interest of the Dominion should be undertaken and proceeded with as fast as the means at the disposal of the Government will warrant At that time the country was in the midst of negotiations with the United States for restoration of the Reciprocity Agreement and the United States commissioners exerted pressure for enlargement of the WeIland Canal

With attention thus focussed on the canals of Central Canada the Chignecto Canal (or Baie Verte Canal as it was then called) became the only canal strongly endorsed by the Allan Commission which was not built

In 1880 Mr H G C Ketchum suggested that a marine railway be constructed to bridge the isthmus A company was formed to build the railroad and a Federal subsidy was voted provided the railway was comshypleted by July 1 1890 Ketchum experienced difficulty raising the necessary capital and the time for completion of the railroad was extended to 1893 When the railway was three-quarters completed Ketchum again ran into difficulties attempting to raise the money By June 1894 he had sufficient capital to complete the railway but a bill allowing a further extension of time was defeated in 1896 by a vote of 55 to 54 The railway was never completed

The last investigation of the subject by a Commission under the chairmanship of Dr Arthur Surveyer in the 1930S approved the engineershying and climatic aspects of the Canal This Commission was stPOngly inshyfluenced by the prevailing economic depression and recommended that the project be allowed to stand in abeyance until it could be further examined in the light of future development of Canadas economic situation

6

This Commission found that the Chignecto Canal was technically feasible as either a half-tide or full-tide project but that the advantages of a full-tide canal over a half-tide canal outweighed the disadvantage of relatively small additional cost It also found that The fog study incorshyporated in our report and the statement of fog percentages based on twenty years of observation indicate that Bay of Fundy waters are subject to rather less fog than is found on the Atlantic shore of Nova Scotia The probable savings in transportation costs found by the Commission were roughly comparable to those estimated in this report At that time these savings formed the only arguments for the Chignecto Canal Today transshyportation savings are a subsidiary argument The phenomenal developshyment of the Canadian economy which has greatly changed the prevailing financial conditions noted by the Surveyer Commission has been shared only partially by the Atlantic Provinces Today the chief argument for the Chignecto Canal is that it will be of primary importance in aiding the depressed economies of the Atlantic Provinces

III

ECONOMIC EFFECTS ON THE ATLANTICREGI0N

The areas which would benefit most immediately Jrom industrial development as a result of the Chignecto Canal are probably the Bay of Fundy and Northumberland Strait areas of Nova Scotia New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island the north shores of Nova Scotia and New Bninsshywick and the western coast of Newfoundland However a longer view of growth resulting from the Canal should also consider developments which are now taking place or will take place not only in the Maritime Provinces but also on the St Lawrence north shore in Labrador and in south bound traffic along the St Lawrence River

In Newfoundland there are several promising mineral areas parshyticularly in the western part Surveying is carried on actively although it is slow because of the few outcrop pings Several areas have been proved to be rich in minerals The Central Mineral Belt extends southward from the regions around Notre Dame Bay and contains base metals Another promisshying area is the Ultrabasic Complex or the West Newfoundland Igneous

7

I

SUMMARY

1 The Chignecto Canal would provide a passage for ships between the Fundy Bay and Northumberland Strait areas at a cost estimated by Foundation of Canada Engineering Corporation Limited at approxishymately $90 millions

2 The Canal would be the direct cause for the investment of over $105 millions in new industries in the Fundy area as announced to the Chignecto Canal Committee in response to its questionnaire Of this total over $100 millions is the undertaking of the K C Irving intershyests conditional upon the construction of the Canal

The stimulus this new investment would give to regional industry makes the Chignecto Canal a primary major development project of the Atlantic region

New plants constructed as a result of the existence of the Chignecto Canal would result in a permanent increase in annual production of the Atlantic Provinces estimated at $280 millions

3 The construction phase of the Canal could result in a temporary inshycrease of $300 millions in Canadian incomes of which $160 millions might be spent in the Atlantic Provinces

4 The net cost to Canada of this step to relieve the depressed conditions of the Atlantic Provinces could be more than counterbalanced by increased revenues from the region

5 The Canal would be a natural extension of the St Lawrence Seaway linking it with a sheltered route for Atlantic coa~tal shipping For the new waterway a laker-type boat could be used which would be cheaper to build and to operate than the ships normally used in ocean travel

6 It appears probable that the very large tidal power potential of the eastern portion of the Bay of Fundy will be economicallymiddot developed in the future This can be achieved without conflict with the construcshytion and operation of the Canal

7 The Surveyer Royal Commission reported favourably on the project in the 1930S on climatic and engineering grounds but influenced by the depression it recommended that construction of the Canal should stand in abeyance until more favourable conditions prevailed Both the conshystruction of the St Lawrence Seaway and the prlt1ent economic advantages of the Canal combine to make the project highly desirable now to aid the depressed economies of the Atlantic Provinces

THE CHIGNECTO CANAL-The dotted line indicates potential shipping routes through the Chignecto Canal linking the St Lawrence and Northumberland Strait areas with the Bay of Fundy and the US Atlantic coast Inset three possible variants of the Canal are shown

I From Cumberland Basin to Baie Verte along the Missaguash River

z A waterway along the course of the Memramshycook River and a canal to Shediac Bay

3 A waterway along the course of the PetitlQdiac River and a canal to Shediac Bay

The dams for tidal power projects which may be deshyveloped in future are indicated in red (see page 18)

II

A BRIEF HISTORY

The first suggestion for a canal through the Chignecto Isthmus was made in 1686 by Jacques de Meulles Intendant of New France The subject has continued to be discussed since then Twelve major engineering reports have been submitted on the project and three separate Royal Comshymissions have examined and reported on it The engineering feasibility of the canal has never been disputed The principal economic argument against its construction appears to have been that at the particular times this was under consideration Canada was in an economic depression and a large capital expenditure was considered not to be appropriate It must be remembered that for most of this period the idea that governments might in part fight recessions by means of public works was unknown

In 1871 a Royal Commission under the chairmanship of Sir Hugh Allan placed the canal among a group which it recommended for the general interest of the Dominion should be undertaken and proceeded with as fast as the means at the disposal of the Government will warrant At that time the country was in the midst of negotiations with the United States for restoration of the Reciprocity Agreement and the United States commissioners exerted pressure for enlargement of the WeIland Canal

With attention thus focussed on the canals of Central Canada the Chignecto Canal (or Baie Verte Canal as it was then called) became the only canal strongly endorsed by the Allan Commission which was not built

In 1880 Mr H G C Ketchum suggested that a marine railway be constructed to bridge the isthmus A company was formed to build the railroad and a Federal subsidy was voted provided the railway was comshypleted by July 1 1890 Ketchum experienced difficulty raising the necessary capital and the time for completion of the railroad was extended to 1893 When the railway was three-quarters completed Ketchum again ran into difficulties attempting to raise the money By June 1894 he had sufficient capital to complete the railway but a bill allowing a further extension of time was defeated in 1896 by a vote of 55 to 54 The railway was never completed

The last investigation of the subject by a Commission under the chairmanship of Dr Arthur Surveyer in the 1930S approved the engineershying and climatic aspects of the Canal This Commission was stPOngly inshyfluenced by the prevailing economic depression and recommended that the project be allowed to stand in abeyance until it could be further examined in the light of future development of Canadas economic situation

6

This Commission found that the Chignecto Canal was technically feasible as either a half-tide or full-tide project but that the advantages of a full-tide canal over a half-tide canal outweighed the disadvantage of relatively small additional cost It also found that The fog study incorshyporated in our report and the statement of fog percentages based on twenty years of observation indicate that Bay of Fundy waters are subject to rather less fog than is found on the Atlantic shore of Nova Scotia The probable savings in transportation costs found by the Commission were roughly comparable to those estimated in this report At that time these savings formed the only arguments for the Chignecto Canal Today transshyportation savings are a subsidiary argument The phenomenal developshyment of the Canadian economy which has greatly changed the prevailing financial conditions noted by the Surveyer Commission has been shared only partially by the Atlantic Provinces Today the chief argument for the Chignecto Canal is that it will be of primary importance in aiding the depressed economies of the Atlantic Provinces

III

ECONOMIC EFFECTS ON THE ATLANTICREGI0N

The areas which would benefit most immediately Jrom industrial development as a result of the Chignecto Canal are probably the Bay of Fundy and Northumberland Strait areas of Nova Scotia New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island the north shores of Nova Scotia and New Bninsshywick and the western coast of Newfoundland However a longer view of growth resulting from the Canal should also consider developments which are now taking place or will take place not only in the Maritime Provinces but also on the St Lawrence north shore in Labrador and in south bound traffic along the St Lawrence River

In Newfoundland there are several promising mineral areas parshyticularly in the western part Surveying is carried on actively although it is slow because of the few outcrop pings Several areas have been proved to be rich in minerals The Central Mineral Belt extends southward from the regions around Notre Dame Bay and contains base metals Another promisshying area is the Ultrabasic Complex or the West Newfoundland Igneous

7

II

A BRIEF HISTORY

The first suggestion for a canal through the Chignecto Isthmus was made in 1686 by Jacques de Meulles Intendant of New France The subject has continued to be discussed since then Twelve major engineering reports have been submitted on the project and three separate Royal Comshymissions have examined and reported on it The engineering feasibility of the canal has never been disputed The principal economic argument against its construction appears to have been that at the particular times this was under consideration Canada was in an economic depression and a large capital expenditure was considered not to be appropriate It must be remembered that for most of this period the idea that governments might in part fight recessions by means of public works was unknown

In 1871 a Royal Commission under the chairmanship of Sir Hugh Allan placed the canal among a group which it recommended for the general interest of the Dominion should be undertaken and proceeded with as fast as the means at the disposal of the Government will warrant At that time the country was in the midst of negotiations with the United States for restoration of the Reciprocity Agreement and the United States commissioners exerted pressure for enlargement of the WeIland Canal

With attention thus focussed on the canals of Central Canada the Chignecto Canal (or Baie Verte Canal as it was then called) became the only canal strongly endorsed by the Allan Commission which was not built

In 1880 Mr H G C Ketchum suggested that a marine railway be constructed to bridge the isthmus A company was formed to build the railroad and a Federal subsidy was voted provided the railway was comshypleted by July 1 1890 Ketchum experienced difficulty raising the necessary capital and the time for completion of the railroad was extended to 1893 When the railway was three-quarters completed Ketchum again ran into difficulties attempting to raise the money By June 1894 he had sufficient capital to complete the railway but a bill allowing a further extension of time was defeated in 1896 by a vote of 55 to 54 The railway was never completed

The last investigation of the subject by a Commission under the chairmanship of Dr Arthur Surveyer in the 1930S approved the engineershying and climatic aspects of the Canal This Commission was stPOngly inshyfluenced by the prevailing economic depression and recommended that the project be allowed to stand in abeyance until it could be further examined in the light of future development of Canadas economic situation

6

This Commission found that the Chignecto Canal was technically feasible as either a half-tide or full-tide project but that the advantages of a full-tide canal over a half-tide canal outweighed the disadvantage of relatively small additional cost It also found that The fog study incorshyporated in our report and the statement of fog percentages based on twenty years of observation indicate that Bay of Fundy waters are subject to rather less fog than is found on the Atlantic shore of Nova Scotia The probable savings in transportation costs found by the Commission were roughly comparable to those estimated in this report At that time these savings formed the only arguments for the Chignecto Canal Today transshyportation savings are a subsidiary argument The phenomenal developshyment of the Canadian economy which has greatly changed the prevailing financial conditions noted by the Surveyer Commission has been shared only partially by the Atlantic Provinces Today the chief argument for the Chignecto Canal is that it will be of primary importance in aiding the depressed economies of the Atlantic Provinces

III

ECONOMIC EFFECTS ON THE ATLANTICREGI0N

The areas which would benefit most immediately Jrom industrial development as a result of the Chignecto Canal are probably the Bay of Fundy and Northumberland Strait areas of Nova Scotia New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island the north shores of Nova Scotia and New Bninsshywick and the western coast of Newfoundland However a longer view of growth resulting from the Canal should also consider developments which are now taking place or will take place not only in the Maritime Provinces but also on the St Lawrence north shore in Labrador and in south bound traffic along the St Lawrence River

In Newfoundland there are several promising mineral areas parshyticularly in the western part Surveying is carried on actively although it is slow because of the few outcrop pings Several areas have been proved to be rich in minerals The Central Mineral Belt extends southward from the regions around Notre Dame Bay and contains base metals Another promisshying area is the Ultrabasic Complex or the West Newfoundland Igneous

7

This Commission found that the Chignecto Canal was technically feasible as either a half-tide or full-tide project but that the advantages of a full-tide canal over a half-tide canal outweighed the disadvantage of relatively small additional cost It also found that The fog study incorshyporated in our report and the statement of fog percentages based on twenty years of observation indicate that Bay of Fundy waters are subject to rather less fog than is found on the Atlantic shore of Nova Scotia The probable savings in transportation costs found by the Commission were roughly comparable to those estimated in this report At that time these savings formed the only arguments for the Chignecto Canal Today transshyportation savings are a subsidiary argument The phenomenal developshyment of the Canadian economy which has greatly changed the prevailing financial conditions noted by the Surveyer Commission has been shared only partially by the Atlantic Provinces Today the chief argument for the Chignecto Canal is that it will be of primary importance in aiding the depressed economies of the Atlantic Provinces

III

ECONOMIC EFFECTS ON THE ATLANTICREGI0N

The areas which would benefit most immediately Jrom industrial development as a result of the Chignecto Canal are probably the Bay of Fundy and Northumberland Strait areas of Nova Scotia New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island the north shores of Nova Scotia and New Bninsshywick and the western coast of Newfoundland However a longer view of growth resulting from the Canal should also consider developments which are now taking place or will take place not only in the Maritime Provinces but also on the St Lawrence north shore in Labrador and in south bound traffic along the St Lawrence River

In Newfoundland there are several promising mineral areas parshyticularly in the western part Surveying is carried on actively although it is slow because of the few outcrop pings Several areas have been proved to be rich in minerals The Central Mineral Belt extends southward from the regions around Notre Dame Bay and contains base metals Another promisshying area is the Ultrabasic Complex or the West Newfoundland Igneous

7

11 Belt which runs south from Bonne Bay along the west coast In the northern sections of this area are stratified igneous rocks which resemble a number of important mining areas in the world including Sudbury Montana South Africa and Sierra Leone From such formations in other regions have come rich reserves of nickel platinum chromite and asbestos Small amounts of chromite and nickel as well as asbestos have been found in this section of Newfoundland and there is a similar formation in the Hare Bay region of the northern peninsula

There are also important deposits of limestone on the west coast of Newfoundland particularly at Humbermouth near Corner Brook and of gypsum in the Bay St George area

The Bathurst region of New Brunswick is the site of large deposits l

of copper lead zinc and silver Exploration of these regions has continued for some years and it was reported in 1959 that this exploratory activity was greatly increased Unfortunately there has not been commercial exploitation of these resources because the price of base metals has been too low to allow profitable operation At least three mining operations those of Brunswick Mining and Smelting Company Limited Heath Steele Mines Limited and Nigadoo Mines Limited have been in production They now sit dormant awaiting a higher price for metals It has been reported however that new financial arrangements will lead to the re-opening of the Brunswick operation in the near future with plans to ship the ore to Europe for five years

One of the natural routes for the concentrates or metal products of these mines is from the mine to the Atlantic coast of the United States Milling woulq take place at the mines The concentrate resulting from the milling operation would then be sent through to the~smelter Provisional plans have already been made by mining companies strongly encouraged by the Government of New Brunswick to establish a smelter in New Brunsshywick at a time when the mining operations have been developed to a stage which will warrant it The influence of the Canal would encourage an earlier development of these plans For example Strategic Metals are now attempting to arrange financing for an establishment at Saint John which would ship 75000 tons or more to the Great Lakes area

In Nova Scotia in addition to coal gypsum salt anhydrite and barite there are plentiful supplies of granite sandstone silica limestone dolomite and quartzite which represent a potential source for additional production should the demand arise Exploratory work is being carried out

1 Estimated reserves to 1000 feet are 150 million tons

8

fl

1

Uj

for the base metals principally copper lead and zinc The pegmautlC phases of the Devonian granite whose constituents are orthoclose (potash) feldspar quartz and biotote mica offer the source for feldspar and the iron-free quartz used in glass manufacturing The deposits of oil shale in Pictou county may be a potential source of liquid fuels and there may be petroleum and natural gas in the areas adjacent to the Northumberland Straits as these fuels have been found in rocks of the same age in southerl1 New Brunswick There are also extensive reserves of low grade manganese ores Roughly speaking the total value of mineral production of Canada has increased by about ten times every twenty-five years This increase has come about because of new finds of ore because of rising prices and because known bodies of ore have become economic Any saving in transportation cost will aid in making the deposits now known economic so that they tan contribute to future growth

The pulp and paper industry of New Brunswick and of Newfoundshyland would also benefit from a reduction of transportation costs Newshyfoundland in particular with over 8000000 acres of productive forest land on the island and another 50000000 in Labrador is well able to expand not only its pulp and paper industry but also its sawmilling The Atlantic States are a natural market for these two areas and newsprint is a commodity suited to water transportation For example although the Richelieu Canal is shallow and therefore inefficient it is regularly used to tlansport newsprint from the St Lawrence River to New York The Chignecto Canal would open a similar although much more capacious route from northern New Brunswick and Nova Scotia and from western Newfoundland

The report of the Commissioner of Mines in New Brunswick dated March 24 1960 contained the following statement with reference to the Chignecto Canal

Since transportation is one of our major problems in the developshyment of our natural resources in order to promote or give incentive to the development of the mining and forest industry especially in the northshyeastern section of New Brunswick I would strongly urge the development of the ChignectoCanal as by this development the shortest possible route will be opened for shipment to the largest market in the world namely the United States t

It is to be expected that economic activity generally will benefit from the new Canal particularly as growth in one industry or area will generate growth in ancillary industries or areas A natural route for coastshy

9

wise shipping will be opened from Yarmouth to Montreal on the one hand and to Newfoundland and Labrador on the other

Refined petroleum products from Saint John could be efficiently deshylivered along the northern coast of New Brunswick and to the ports of the lower St Lawrence and in turn products now shipped from Montreal could be distributed along the Bay of Fundy area Barite might be transported from Walton Nova Scotia through the St Lawrence for the oil fields of J Central and Western Canada The existence of the Canal would lead to a regular service from the Bay of Fundy to the north With such a service in operation the Bay of Fundy would lose its present unfortunate position I on a dead-end water road and would become a port of call on a water highshyway Furthermore developments which may be expected to take place in ports and areas of the region will lead to increasing needs which may be I met from other Maritime areas Growth in Saint John for example will lead to a greater demand for coal which might be met from New Brunswick and Nova Scotia mines

This will benefit some sections of the Maritimes such as the Bay of Fundy ports in particular as in addition to the advantages of further economic activity there will also be the advantages of transportation savings and consequently lowered costs generally Finally the evidence of existing industries indicates that labour-oriented industries will find location in the Maritimes attractive for transportation disadvantages will be lessened and the advantages of the labour market will retain If in addition the size of the Maritime market will support their operations market-oriented industries may find the Maritimes a better than average Canadian location

The most concrete evidence of the immediate industrial development which would commencemiddotmiddot with the undertaking to proceed with the conshystruction of the Chignecto Canal are the statements of intention formally presented to the Chignecto Canal Committee that investments of over $105000000 will be made in the Bay of Fundy area if and only if the Canal is built Without a detailed knowledge of these plans it is only possible to make approximations of the effects of this prospective investshyment The calculations which follow are therefore designed to produce reasonable statements but not forecasts

f As a first method of approximation we can assume that the investors

will expect a return of six per cent per annum after taxes Although it is not expected to be the case we will treat this investment as if it were all made in a single plant This means that the profit involved would be taxed

10

I

at almost 47 per cent The profit before taxes would therefore be expected to be $6 x 10053 = $113 millions Various manufacturing operations yield profit per sales dollar of from ten to twenty per cent Sales of these plants might be planned therefore in the range from $45 to $226 millions Taking the average of these two estimates we would expect a sales volume from the new plant of approximately $135 millions

This estimate can be compared with the published statistics for New Brunswick manufacturing industries for 1943 (the last year for which estimates of capital investment are given) In that year a capital investshyment estimated at $III287910 resulted in factory shipments valued at $1409348791 On this basis an investment of $100 millions would result in factory shipments valued at $133 millions approximately

A second method of approximating is to estimate the employment which will result from the new investment and the value of production which will result from this employment The information contained in the questionnaires returned to the Chignecto Committee indicates that one employee will be hired for each $10000 of investment roughly On this basis 10000 employees would be hired In 1957 the gross value of products per employee in New Brunswick manufacturing was approximately $150001 We would therefore estimate a total value of production of $155 millions

It may be expected then that an annual production of from 50 to over 200 million dollars would result from investment resulting from the construction of the Canal The best estimate would appear to be in the neighborhood of $140 millions

There will also be secondary effects of this investment A study of the secondary effects of the oil industry in Alberta which is presently being completed indicates that the secondary effects of investment in that industry are about equal to the primary effects If the same relationship holds for the new income from added manufacturing in New Brunswick the annual production discussed above will be doubled Since this assumes that only one-half of each dollar spent in New Brunswick for wages and materials is re-spent in the Atlantic provinces it appears to be an entirely reasonable estimate Perhaps more important the secondary employment effects would add a second 10000 persons to Atlantic payrolls for a total of 20000 persons f

We therefore conclude that this investment can reasonably be expected to result in an increase in the value of production of some $280

1 DBS The Manufacturing Industries of Canada Section B 1957 p 40

II

millions in the Atlantic Provinces The range of this estimated increase would be from $100 to $400 millions If one compares this increase with the manufacturtng activity of New Brunswick alone it will be seen that the increase in value of factory shipments will be almost equal to the I957 total value of factory shipments in manufacturing The importance of such a development to the economy of the Atlantic Provinces is obvious

The most immediate effects of the Canal will of course come from the construction expenditures The first effect therefore will be an increase in the Maritime income of approximately $90 millions However it is well known that an expenditure of this type has secondary effects which are more important than the primary one As the original sum is spent and re-spent by the successive recipients the income from it is multiplied In Canada the multiplier has been estimated as 33 from expenditures on construction1 Therefore the expenditure of $90 millions would in effect be an increase in income of approximately $300 millions

Not all of this of course would be spent in the Maritimes Still most of the materials would be purchased in the Maritimes and the labour would be local from the area In I957 the Dominion Bureau of Statistics figures indicate that these items formed 80 per cent of the value of conshystruction work performed This amount then would be almost entirely re-spent in the Maritimes It seems reasonably conservative to estimate that at least I60000000 dollars income would be generated in the Atlantic Provinces

If this Canal were to be considered solely or even chiefly in terms of the transportation savings based on present traffic which are outlined in the following section it would not be justified The justification of the Canal rests upon the contribution to the revivification of the Atlantic Provinces actively derived from the new industrial investment of more than $IOO millions which will follow the construction of the Canal There tan be no doubt that the increase of from $100 to $400 millions in the value of production will be of major significance in terms of the economic developshyment of the Atlantic Provinces The temporary increase in income of some $300 millions generated by the construction expenditures will be continued by the new industries established

Since the chief effect of the canal would be to encourage new inshydustry it is clear that it would encourage new trade rather thap divert trade from other shipping routes

1 Harvie Thomas Relationship of the Aircraft Industry to the Canadian Economy Unpubshylished MA Thesis Massachusetts Institute of Technology 1958

12

I

I I I I

IV

THE IMPACT OF THE CANAL ON EXISTING SHIPPING

The impact which the Chignecto Canal will eventually have on shipping patterns is discussed in the second part of this section It is imshyportant to note first what savings may be effected in shipping costs with the present patterns of trade Three principal routes will be affected first between the Great Lakes and St Lawrence ports and those of the Bay of Fundy and the eastern seaboard of the United States second between ports on the Bay of Fundy and ports to the north especially other ports in the Atlantic Provinces and third particularly at those times of year when northern tracks are being used between ports on the Bay of Fundy and northern European ports

To a ship-owner a canal is useful only if it permits entry into an area otherwise inaccessible or if it permits the use of ships more economical than would be possible without it or if it shortens the time of a voyage The saving in distance brought about by the canal must be considered in relation to the slower speed in restricted waterways delay in locks and so forth For an initial approach however an estimate of the total traffic which would use the canal may be obtained by noting the total trade which was being carried on between points w~ich would use the canal in a given year The estimates which follow are based on ~he 1957 traffic pattern

Potential Chignecto Canal Traffic

(Short Tons)

Traffic St Lawrence Bay of fundy

to South to Northern Atlantic Ports

Total

Inbound Outbound

Total

2800000 4 00000

1800000 150 000

4600000 I 550 000

3200000

I950 000

5150 000

i

The estimate for St Lawrence to South Atlantic ports is based on information supplied by the Dominion Bureau of Statistics on the likely use of the Canal by ships plying this route Certain downward adjustments were made to reduce the total by the amounts which were destined for ports considered to lie too far to the east to use the Canal

The potential of 5150000 for the Chignecto is almost half that which in the same year 1957 on which these estimates were based the St Lawrence Canals carried (12200000 tons)

Since even at a depth of 35 feet the ore trade would tend to seek deeper routes approximately 7000000 tons of iron ore from the St Lawshyrence to United States ports were excluded from these calculations Some part of the shipping involved would likely use the Canal at least on the return voyage

The Bay of Fundy - Northern Ports traffic was estimated on a proportional basis First the proportion which total trade of the Bay of Fundy ports to other eastern Canadian ports bears to the total trade of all New Brunswick and Nova Scotia ports to other eastern Canadian ports was found This proportion of loadings and unloadings was then applied separately to the trade of New Brunswick and Nova Scotia to other provshyinces individually To estimate the trade of Bay of Fundy ports with other ports of Nova Scotia and New Brunswick one-half of the proportionate share was taken This amount was used since in each case about one-half the coast line would not use the canal

Attempts to estimate the precise savings in shipping costs are very difficult The best route between two points is not necessarily the most direct Local conditions along the route may make deviations necessary Shipments from various ports to each destination must be estimated since only aggregated traffic statistics are published Nevertheless it is possible to make computations which indicate the order of magnitude of the savings which would be accomplished After allowance for delays in the canals because of lockage and slow speed in the restricted channel an examination of the 1957 shipping figures indicates savings of approximately $500000

The basis of the calculations is set out in Appendix B

A more important aspect of the impact on shipping cannot be illustrated by examination of the trade pattern of past years That is the amount of shipping activity which would be generated by the existence of the Canal The distance between Atlantic Provinces ports by water would be cut in some cases by as much as 415 nautical miles The existence of this short route would in itself create an impetus to increased coastwise shipshyping The fact that two of these provinces are isolated by water of course lends emphasis to the use which must be made of ships

Again it is impossible to give numerical estimates of the coastwise shipping which would be generated There are however three reasons for believing that an increase will take place

Shipping trade already exists between ports north of and south of the Chignecto Isthmus Empirically it has been found that trade between closer points is greater than between more widely separated points Further this difference seems to be more closely related to the square of the difference than to the difference itself Thus halving the effective transportation route between the two points will tend to quadruple the trade between them

The Canal would make the Bay of Fundy a natural extension of the route from the Great Lakes to the ports of the Eastern United States and the Panama Canal

The fact of more frequent sailings between these ports would itself create more offerings of traffic as shippers became aware of the possibility of faster service

While it is not possible to make numerical calculations of the amount which might be saved in this trade there can be no doubt that the stimulashytion which the Canal will give to shipping in the area will expand the savings in transportation costs considerably

In addition to the traffic generated immediately there will in future years be a natural growth of trade The use of the St Lawrence Canal to give an example has been very closely related to general economic activity in Canada1 The tremendous rate of growth in Canadas economy has been sufficient to cause a doubling in real Gross National Product every fifteen years Even if we assumt a more modest rate of increase in the future it is clear that the use of the Canal will grow quickly once it is established Even so the savings in transportation costs estimated in this section would not in themselves be justification for constructing the Canal However it is obvious that since the new industry discussed in the previous section is predicated upon the existence of the Canal this new industry will be an important user of the Canal and will greatly expand its use

A new water route will be established which will permit the use of a different type of craft to those used in ocean travel It could be a lakershytype boat which could operate under a restricted international licence and with personnel certified for home trade and would be much less expensive to build and to operate than a normal ship New services could thus operate successfully in a Maritime area which is not now adequately served by sea transportation f

The result will be to revitalize the area economically

1 Tonnage carried through the Sf Lawrence Canal and Gross National Expenditure in constant 1949 dollars are very highly correlated for the eleven years 1947-1957 (r = 948)

IS

v TIMING OF THE CHIGNECTO CANAL PROJECT

It is obvious that the more quickly the Chignecto Canal is built the quicker benefits will flow from it If an immediate start is made final engineering examinationmiddot and specification will not be completed until 1961 The cost of the engineering study necessary before the final cost of construction can be confirmed has been put at $350000 by Foundation of Canada Engineering Corporation Limited It might be argued that a time when the Government of Canada and our financial institutions are preshyoccupied with fighting inflation is not a time to consider large expendishytures However the Atlantic Provinces as is well known suffer from what

might fairly be described as a permanent recession This project would be a most valuable addition to the governmental armoury of weapons to combat regional depression It has the following important advantages

It is sufficiently large that it will have a decided impact on the economy of the Maritime Provinces

It will create advantages of lasting benefit to the eastern part of Canada

Should this project be undertaken as part of a programme to combat regional depression the cost to Canada will be less than the expenditures on it These expenditures will be offSet in part by expenditures which w0ud otherwise be made for unemployment insurance am might make it possible to reduce certain other subsidies In fact since the effect is multiplied this saving will be more than the direct replacement of wages for unemployment insurance In addition some part of the cost will be reshycovered as corporate and personal income taxes which would not otherwise be due The calculations of Section III would indicate that corporate income taxes from new industry resulting from the Canal would be in the order of $10 rriilHons The actual ~et cost to the Government of Canada of the Canal could therefore be negative

16

APPENDIX A

GENERAL DESCRIPTION AND LOCATIONl

Engineers have considered four routes for the Canal A route along the Missaguash River is thought to be the most advantageous as it would pass through marshland along four-fifths of its length and would present the smallest excavation problem It is about 16 miles long This route is illustrated in the inset map numbered 1

There is a shorter possible route from Moncton to Shediac Bay which would be between 12 and IS miles long As it runs over high ground however the amount of excavation needed would be at least three times the amount required for the Missaguash route (I)

The Canal will form a natural extension of the St Lawrence Ship Channel It should therefore be of at least the 27-foot depth of the St Lawrence Seaway Preliminary engineering reports indicate that a 35-foot depth which prevails up to Montreal will be practicable This is the more important as the average size of ocean-going ships is increasing In 1958 about half the available ocean-going tonnage required a depth of over 30 feet when fully loaded

If the ore and tanker trades are important even greater depth is reshyquired A depth of 40 feet can be considered minimum for large oreshycarriers Charts I to IV illustrate this diffetence and the tendency for the average size of ships to grow One source of confusion is the abundance of Liberty ships which are still in existence While these ~hips exist they are already becoming of uneconomical size (and of course age) On Noshyvember 1st 1958 over 400 Liberty ships were inactive

A depth of 35 feet will allow tankers up to 25000 tons dwt and other ships up to 20000 tons dwt with a maximum 32 foot draft to use the canal when fully loaded

The difference in tide levels between Cumberland Basin and Baie Verte makes at least one lock necessary The maximum tide range in Baie Verte is about 10 feet compared to 50 feet in Cumberland Basin while extreme tides at Cumberland Basin are about 20 feet lower or higher than at Baie Verte

The cost of a 35-foot deep canal with a width of 300 feet including the cost of one lock approach facilities to the canal one railroad crossing and two highway crossings but exclusive of land expropriation costs was estimated at approximately $90 millions by Foundation of Canada Enshy

1 Engineering information included in this section has been summarized from A Preliminary Engineering Report on the Chignecto Canal prepared by Foundation of Canada Engineering Corporation Limited (April 1959)

17

gineering Corporation Limited The plan together with the proposal to employ one lock is the result of close cooperation between the Corporation and LaSalle Hydraulic Laboratory It has been independently examined and approved by Professor P Danel President of Sogeah in France who is a leading world authority on hydraulics and we believe the system proshyposed in the report to be worthy of the most careful study before it is abandoned in favour of a two-lock system

With one lock at the Cumberland Basin entrance the canals water level will fluctuate from about 0 - 8 feet with the Baie Verte tides With two locks one at either end the canals water level can be kept constant at about I4 - 16 feet above low tide at Baie Verte One lock will naturally reduce the time of a ships passage through the canal will decrease mainshytenance costs and will enable ships with 36 foot drafts to pass through at high tide since the time of the passage which is zt-3 hours would be shorter than the time during which the water level in the canal will be higher than the 35 foot minimum One lock will also avoid the drainage problem which will be raised when the canal with its constant water level will cut across the Missaguash River These advantages of the one lock system outweigh the extra excavation which will be required to maintain the 35 foot depth at low tide

The lock chamber would be 800 feet long and 100 feet wide which is the minimum size required to handle large tankers freighters or carriers and tugs towing barges The time for the passage of a ship through the lock would not exceed 30 minutes

The lock will consist of a main chamber gates and filling system and approaches with mooring facilities on both sides A railway bridge will be located at the south end The chamber walls will be of concrete crib construction with the cribs 60 feet wide and 95 feet high filled with gravel or rock and provided with mooring facilities

The bottom of the chamber will be lined with a concrete slab conshytaining weep holes to release hydrostatic pressure under the lock

Estimates of the cost of the canal have been made on the basis of assumed ground elevations and assumed soil types Firmer estimates would require soil borings and finer mapping than has yet been done

It appears probable that the very large tidal power potential of the eastern portion of the Bay of Fundy will be economically devel~ped in the future This can be achieved without conflict with the construction and operation of the Canal If tidal power plants are built later in the Cumbershyland and Shepody Basins navigation would benefit from increased water depth in the Cumberland Basin

18

ENGINEERING ESTIMATES

The following excavation quantities are based upon assumed ground elevations

Canal

75500000 cu yd Dredging excavation

6500000 cu yd Rock excavation

2000000 cu yd Rock protection

Canal Approaches

13050000 cu yd Dredging-Cumberland Basin

12210000 cu yd Dredging-Baie Verte

Navigation Lock

825000 cu yd Earthwork including excavation backfill and pumping

155300 cu yd Concrete in lock chamber

37600 cu yd Concrete in 39 dolphins and bridging

2 sets of sector gates (94 x 100 opening) including equipment

28000 sq ft Sheet piling

Road Crossings

2 high level highway crossings

1 railway bridge (at lock)

Contingency 20

$30200000

13000000

8000000

4567500

4273500

1452000

3880000

1504000

4300000

84000

2600000

1100000

$51200000

8841000

11220000

3700000

$74961000

14992200

$89953200

APPENDIX B-1

Estimated Daily Running Expenses Under Free Flag-Ore Carriers amp General Cargo Ships

Total Carrying Personnel Capacity

(tOns) Officers I Crew

I ORE CARRIERS

20000 8 30

30000 8 30 N o 40000 8 32

50000 8 32

60000 8 35

GENERAL CARGO

7500 35 -e

10500 35

13500 35

Payroll $

25000

25000

27000

27000

30000

-

-

--- shy

(1) Includes certain insurance items

Victualing $

5000

5000

5500

5500

6000

--

--_

Stores $

(1956 Figures)

8000

8000

9000

9000

10000

(1958 Figures)

-

-

-

Repairs $

8000

8000

10000

12000

12000

-

-

Surveying $

3500

3500

4500

4500

5500

-

-

-

Manage ment

$

6500

6500

6500

6500

6500

--

-

Mise $

5000

5000

5000

5000

5000

-

-

-

Total Daily Running Expenses

$

61000

61000

67500

69500

75000

65000

65000(1)

80000(1)

APPENDIX Bmiddot2 Speed and fuel costs-per day

Ore Carriers and General Cargo Ships Under Free Flag

Carrying Price of FuelMiles Per Cost ofFuel TonsCapacity per ton Fuel per

I Per Day(tons) (Average) dayHour Day

ORE CARRIERS $ $

20000 (1) 120 25005 30 75000 (2 ) 15 360 2500 7500030 (3) 10- - 2500 25000

30000 (1 ) 120 2500 875005 35 (2 ) 360 2500 8750015 35 (3 ) - - 12 2500 30000

40000 (1) 120 10000040 25005 (2 ) 360 40 2500 10000015 (3) -- 250015 37500

50000 (1) 120 2500 1125005 45 (2 ) 11250015 360 45 2500 (3 ) - 18 2500 45000-

60000 (1 ) 5 120 2500 12500050 (2 ) 15 2500 125000360 50 (3 ) - 20 2500 50000-

GENERAL CARGO

7500 (1) 1205 15 2500 37500 (2 ) 15 360 250015 37500 (3) --- - -

10000 (1 ) 120 18 2500 450005 (2 ) 250015 360 18 45000 (3 ) - 7 2500 17500-

13500 (1) 1205 20 2500 ~OOOO (2 ) 15 360 20 2500 0000 (3 ) - - 10 2500 25000

(1) (2) (3)

Canal Sea Port

21

for the base metals principally copper lead and zinc The pegmautlC phases of the Devonian granite whose constituents are orthoclose (potash) feldspar quartz and biotote mica offer the source for feldspar and the iron-free quartz used in glass manufacturing The deposits of oil shale in Pictou county may be a potential source of liquid fuels and there may be petroleum and natural gas in the areas adjacent to the Northumberland Straits as these fuels have been found in rocks of the same age in southerl1 New Brunswick There are also extensive reserves of low grade manganese ores Roughly speaking the total value of mineral production of Canada has increased by about ten times every twenty-five years This increase has come about because of new finds of ore because of rising prices and because known bodies of ore have become economic Any saving in transportation cost will aid in making the deposits now known economic so that they tan contribute to future growth

The pulp and paper industry of New Brunswick and of Newfoundshyland would also benefit from a reduction of transportation costs Newshyfoundland in particular with over 8000000 acres of productive forest land on the island and another 50000000 in Labrador is well able to expand not only its pulp and paper industry but also its sawmilling The Atlantic States are a natural market for these two areas and newsprint is a commodity suited to water transportation For example although the Richelieu Canal is shallow and therefore inefficient it is regularly used to tlansport newsprint from the St Lawrence River to New York The Chignecto Canal would open a similar although much more capacious route from northern New Brunswick and Nova Scotia and from western Newfoundland

The report of the Commissioner of Mines in New Brunswick dated March 24 1960 contained the following statement with reference to the Chignecto Canal

Since transportation is one of our major problems in the developshyment of our natural resources in order to promote or give incentive to the development of the mining and forest industry especially in the northshyeastern section of New Brunswick I would strongly urge the development of the ChignectoCanal as by this development the shortest possible route will be opened for shipment to the largest market in the world namely the United States t

It is to be expected that economic activity generally will benefit from the new Canal particularly as growth in one industry or area will generate growth in ancillary industries or areas A natural route for coastshy

9

wise shipping will be opened from Yarmouth to Montreal on the one hand and to Newfoundland and Labrador on the other

Refined petroleum products from Saint John could be efficiently deshylivered along the northern coast of New Brunswick and to the ports of the lower St Lawrence and in turn products now shipped from Montreal could be distributed along the Bay of Fundy area Barite might be transported from Walton Nova Scotia through the St Lawrence for the oil fields of J Central and Western Canada The existence of the Canal would lead to a regular service from the Bay of Fundy to the north With such a service in operation the Bay of Fundy would lose its present unfortunate position I on a dead-end water road and would become a port of call on a water highshyway Furthermore developments which may be expected to take place in ports and areas of the region will lead to increasing needs which may be I met from other Maritime areas Growth in Saint John for example will lead to a greater demand for coal which might be met from New Brunswick and Nova Scotia mines

This will benefit some sections of the Maritimes such as the Bay of Fundy ports in particular as in addition to the advantages of further economic activity there will also be the advantages of transportation savings and consequently lowered costs generally Finally the evidence of existing industries indicates that labour-oriented industries will find location in the Maritimes attractive for transportation disadvantages will be lessened and the advantages of the labour market will retain If in addition the size of the Maritime market will support their operations market-oriented industries may find the Maritimes a better than average Canadian location

The most concrete evidence of the immediate industrial development which would commencemiddotmiddot with the undertaking to proceed with the conshystruction of the Chignecto Canal are the statements of intention formally presented to the Chignecto Canal Committee that investments of over $105000000 will be made in the Bay of Fundy area if and only if the Canal is built Without a detailed knowledge of these plans it is only possible to make approximations of the effects of this prospective investshyment The calculations which follow are therefore designed to produce reasonable statements but not forecasts

f As a first method of approximation we can assume that the investors

will expect a return of six per cent per annum after taxes Although it is not expected to be the case we will treat this investment as if it were all made in a single plant This means that the profit involved would be taxed

10

I

at almost 47 per cent The profit before taxes would therefore be expected to be $6 x 10053 = $113 millions Various manufacturing operations yield profit per sales dollar of from ten to twenty per cent Sales of these plants might be planned therefore in the range from $45 to $226 millions Taking the average of these two estimates we would expect a sales volume from the new plant of approximately $135 millions

This estimate can be compared with the published statistics for New Brunswick manufacturing industries for 1943 (the last year for which estimates of capital investment are given) In that year a capital investshyment estimated at $III287910 resulted in factory shipments valued at $1409348791 On this basis an investment of $100 millions would result in factory shipments valued at $133 millions approximately

A second method of approximating is to estimate the employment which will result from the new investment and the value of production which will result from this employment The information contained in the questionnaires returned to the Chignecto Committee indicates that one employee will be hired for each $10000 of investment roughly On this basis 10000 employees would be hired In 1957 the gross value of products per employee in New Brunswick manufacturing was approximately $150001 We would therefore estimate a total value of production of $155 millions

It may be expected then that an annual production of from 50 to over 200 million dollars would result from investment resulting from the construction of the Canal The best estimate would appear to be in the neighborhood of $140 millions

There will also be secondary effects of this investment A study of the secondary effects of the oil industry in Alberta which is presently being completed indicates that the secondary effects of investment in that industry are about equal to the primary effects If the same relationship holds for the new income from added manufacturing in New Brunswick the annual production discussed above will be doubled Since this assumes that only one-half of each dollar spent in New Brunswick for wages and materials is re-spent in the Atlantic provinces it appears to be an entirely reasonable estimate Perhaps more important the secondary employment effects would add a second 10000 persons to Atlantic payrolls for a total of 20000 persons f

We therefore conclude that this investment can reasonably be expected to result in an increase in the value of production of some $280

1 DBS The Manufacturing Industries of Canada Section B 1957 p 40

II

millions in the Atlantic Provinces The range of this estimated increase would be from $100 to $400 millions If one compares this increase with the manufacturtng activity of New Brunswick alone it will be seen that the increase in value of factory shipments will be almost equal to the I957 total value of factory shipments in manufacturing The importance of such a development to the economy of the Atlantic Provinces is obvious

The most immediate effects of the Canal will of course come from the construction expenditures The first effect therefore will be an increase in the Maritime income of approximately $90 millions However it is well known that an expenditure of this type has secondary effects which are more important than the primary one As the original sum is spent and re-spent by the successive recipients the income from it is multiplied In Canada the multiplier has been estimated as 33 from expenditures on construction1 Therefore the expenditure of $90 millions would in effect be an increase in income of approximately $300 millions

Not all of this of course would be spent in the Maritimes Still most of the materials would be purchased in the Maritimes and the labour would be local from the area In I957 the Dominion Bureau of Statistics figures indicate that these items formed 80 per cent of the value of conshystruction work performed This amount then would be almost entirely re-spent in the Maritimes It seems reasonably conservative to estimate that at least I60000000 dollars income would be generated in the Atlantic Provinces

If this Canal were to be considered solely or even chiefly in terms of the transportation savings based on present traffic which are outlined in the following section it would not be justified The justification of the Canal rests upon the contribution to the revivification of the Atlantic Provinces actively derived from the new industrial investment of more than $IOO millions which will follow the construction of the Canal There tan be no doubt that the increase of from $100 to $400 millions in the value of production will be of major significance in terms of the economic developshyment of the Atlantic Provinces The temporary increase in income of some $300 millions generated by the construction expenditures will be continued by the new industries established

Since the chief effect of the canal would be to encourage new inshydustry it is clear that it would encourage new trade rather thap divert trade from other shipping routes

1 Harvie Thomas Relationship of the Aircraft Industry to the Canadian Economy Unpubshylished MA Thesis Massachusetts Institute of Technology 1958

12

I

I I I I

IV

THE IMPACT OF THE CANAL ON EXISTING SHIPPING

The impact which the Chignecto Canal will eventually have on shipping patterns is discussed in the second part of this section It is imshyportant to note first what savings may be effected in shipping costs with the present patterns of trade Three principal routes will be affected first between the Great Lakes and St Lawrence ports and those of the Bay of Fundy and the eastern seaboard of the United States second between ports on the Bay of Fundy and ports to the north especially other ports in the Atlantic Provinces and third particularly at those times of year when northern tracks are being used between ports on the Bay of Fundy and northern European ports

To a ship-owner a canal is useful only if it permits entry into an area otherwise inaccessible or if it permits the use of ships more economical than would be possible without it or if it shortens the time of a voyage The saving in distance brought about by the canal must be considered in relation to the slower speed in restricted waterways delay in locks and so forth For an initial approach however an estimate of the total traffic which would use the canal may be obtained by noting the total trade which was being carried on between points w~ich would use the canal in a given year The estimates which follow are based on ~he 1957 traffic pattern

Potential Chignecto Canal Traffic

(Short Tons)

Traffic St Lawrence Bay of fundy

to South to Northern Atlantic Ports

Total

Inbound Outbound

Total

2800000 4 00000

1800000 150 000

4600000 I 550 000

3200000

I950 000

5150 000

i

The estimate for St Lawrence to South Atlantic ports is based on information supplied by the Dominion Bureau of Statistics on the likely use of the Canal by ships plying this route Certain downward adjustments were made to reduce the total by the amounts which were destined for ports considered to lie too far to the east to use the Canal

The potential of 5150000 for the Chignecto is almost half that which in the same year 1957 on which these estimates were based the St Lawrence Canals carried (12200000 tons)

Since even at a depth of 35 feet the ore trade would tend to seek deeper routes approximately 7000000 tons of iron ore from the St Lawshyrence to United States ports were excluded from these calculations Some part of the shipping involved would likely use the Canal at least on the return voyage

The Bay of Fundy - Northern Ports traffic was estimated on a proportional basis First the proportion which total trade of the Bay of Fundy ports to other eastern Canadian ports bears to the total trade of all New Brunswick and Nova Scotia ports to other eastern Canadian ports was found This proportion of loadings and unloadings was then applied separately to the trade of New Brunswick and Nova Scotia to other provshyinces individually To estimate the trade of Bay of Fundy ports with other ports of Nova Scotia and New Brunswick one-half of the proportionate share was taken This amount was used since in each case about one-half the coast line would not use the canal

Attempts to estimate the precise savings in shipping costs are very difficult The best route between two points is not necessarily the most direct Local conditions along the route may make deviations necessary Shipments from various ports to each destination must be estimated since only aggregated traffic statistics are published Nevertheless it is possible to make computations which indicate the order of magnitude of the savings which would be accomplished After allowance for delays in the canals because of lockage and slow speed in the restricted channel an examination of the 1957 shipping figures indicates savings of approximately $500000

The basis of the calculations is set out in Appendix B

A more important aspect of the impact on shipping cannot be illustrated by examination of the trade pattern of past years That is the amount of shipping activity which would be generated by the existence of the Canal The distance between Atlantic Provinces ports by water would be cut in some cases by as much as 415 nautical miles The existence of this short route would in itself create an impetus to increased coastwise shipshyping The fact that two of these provinces are isolated by water of course lends emphasis to the use which must be made of ships

Again it is impossible to give numerical estimates of the coastwise shipping which would be generated There are however three reasons for believing that an increase will take place

Shipping trade already exists between ports north of and south of the Chignecto Isthmus Empirically it has been found that trade between closer points is greater than between more widely separated points Further this difference seems to be more closely related to the square of the difference than to the difference itself Thus halving the effective transportation route between the two points will tend to quadruple the trade between them

The Canal would make the Bay of Fundy a natural extension of the route from the Great Lakes to the ports of the Eastern United States and the Panama Canal

The fact of more frequent sailings between these ports would itself create more offerings of traffic as shippers became aware of the possibility of faster service

While it is not possible to make numerical calculations of the amount which might be saved in this trade there can be no doubt that the stimulashytion which the Canal will give to shipping in the area will expand the savings in transportation costs considerably

In addition to the traffic generated immediately there will in future years be a natural growth of trade The use of the St Lawrence Canal to give an example has been very closely related to general economic activity in Canada1 The tremendous rate of growth in Canadas economy has been sufficient to cause a doubling in real Gross National Product every fifteen years Even if we assumt a more modest rate of increase in the future it is clear that the use of the Canal will grow quickly once it is established Even so the savings in transportation costs estimated in this section would not in themselves be justification for constructing the Canal However it is obvious that since the new industry discussed in the previous section is predicated upon the existence of the Canal this new industry will be an important user of the Canal and will greatly expand its use

A new water route will be established which will permit the use of a different type of craft to those used in ocean travel It could be a lakershytype boat which could operate under a restricted international licence and with personnel certified for home trade and would be much less expensive to build and to operate than a normal ship New services could thus operate successfully in a Maritime area which is not now adequately served by sea transportation f

The result will be to revitalize the area economically

1 Tonnage carried through the Sf Lawrence Canal and Gross National Expenditure in constant 1949 dollars are very highly correlated for the eleven years 1947-1957 (r = 948)

IS

v TIMING OF THE CHIGNECTO CANAL PROJECT

It is obvious that the more quickly the Chignecto Canal is built the quicker benefits will flow from it If an immediate start is made final engineering examinationmiddot and specification will not be completed until 1961 The cost of the engineering study necessary before the final cost of construction can be confirmed has been put at $350000 by Foundation of Canada Engineering Corporation Limited It might be argued that a time when the Government of Canada and our financial institutions are preshyoccupied with fighting inflation is not a time to consider large expendishytures However the Atlantic Provinces as is well known suffer from what

might fairly be described as a permanent recession This project would be a most valuable addition to the governmental armoury of weapons to combat regional depression It has the following important advantages

It is sufficiently large that it will have a decided impact on the economy of the Maritime Provinces

It will create advantages of lasting benefit to the eastern part of Canada

Should this project be undertaken as part of a programme to combat regional depression the cost to Canada will be less than the expenditures on it These expenditures will be offSet in part by expenditures which w0ud otherwise be made for unemployment insurance am might make it possible to reduce certain other subsidies In fact since the effect is multiplied this saving will be more than the direct replacement of wages for unemployment insurance In addition some part of the cost will be reshycovered as corporate and personal income taxes which would not otherwise be due The calculations of Section III would indicate that corporate income taxes from new industry resulting from the Canal would be in the order of $10 rriilHons The actual ~et cost to the Government of Canada of the Canal could therefore be negative

16

APPENDIX A

GENERAL DESCRIPTION AND LOCATIONl

Engineers have considered four routes for the Canal A route along the Missaguash River is thought to be the most advantageous as it would pass through marshland along four-fifths of its length and would present the smallest excavation problem It is about 16 miles long This route is illustrated in the inset map numbered 1

There is a shorter possible route from Moncton to Shediac Bay which would be between 12 and IS miles long As it runs over high ground however the amount of excavation needed would be at least three times the amount required for the Missaguash route (I)

The Canal will form a natural extension of the St Lawrence Ship Channel It should therefore be of at least the 27-foot depth of the St Lawrence Seaway Preliminary engineering reports indicate that a 35-foot depth which prevails up to Montreal will be practicable This is the more important as the average size of ocean-going ships is increasing In 1958 about half the available ocean-going tonnage required a depth of over 30 feet when fully loaded

If the ore and tanker trades are important even greater depth is reshyquired A depth of 40 feet can be considered minimum for large oreshycarriers Charts I to IV illustrate this diffetence and the tendency for the average size of ships to grow One source of confusion is the abundance of Liberty ships which are still in existence While these ~hips exist they are already becoming of uneconomical size (and of course age) On Noshyvember 1st 1958 over 400 Liberty ships were inactive

A depth of 35 feet will allow tankers up to 25000 tons dwt and other ships up to 20000 tons dwt with a maximum 32 foot draft to use the canal when fully loaded

The difference in tide levels between Cumberland Basin and Baie Verte makes at least one lock necessary The maximum tide range in Baie Verte is about 10 feet compared to 50 feet in Cumberland Basin while extreme tides at Cumberland Basin are about 20 feet lower or higher than at Baie Verte

The cost of a 35-foot deep canal with a width of 300 feet including the cost of one lock approach facilities to the canal one railroad crossing and two highway crossings but exclusive of land expropriation costs was estimated at approximately $90 millions by Foundation of Canada Enshy

1 Engineering information included in this section has been summarized from A Preliminary Engineering Report on the Chignecto Canal prepared by Foundation of Canada Engineering Corporation Limited (April 1959)

17

gineering Corporation Limited The plan together with the proposal to employ one lock is the result of close cooperation between the Corporation and LaSalle Hydraulic Laboratory It has been independently examined and approved by Professor P Danel President of Sogeah in France who is a leading world authority on hydraulics and we believe the system proshyposed in the report to be worthy of the most careful study before it is abandoned in favour of a two-lock system

With one lock at the Cumberland Basin entrance the canals water level will fluctuate from about 0 - 8 feet with the Baie Verte tides With two locks one at either end the canals water level can be kept constant at about I4 - 16 feet above low tide at Baie Verte One lock will naturally reduce the time of a ships passage through the canal will decrease mainshytenance costs and will enable ships with 36 foot drafts to pass through at high tide since the time of the passage which is zt-3 hours would be shorter than the time during which the water level in the canal will be higher than the 35 foot minimum One lock will also avoid the drainage problem which will be raised when the canal with its constant water level will cut across the Missaguash River These advantages of the one lock system outweigh the extra excavation which will be required to maintain the 35 foot depth at low tide

The lock chamber would be 800 feet long and 100 feet wide which is the minimum size required to handle large tankers freighters or carriers and tugs towing barges The time for the passage of a ship through the lock would not exceed 30 minutes

The lock will consist of a main chamber gates and filling system and approaches with mooring facilities on both sides A railway bridge will be located at the south end The chamber walls will be of concrete crib construction with the cribs 60 feet wide and 95 feet high filled with gravel or rock and provided with mooring facilities

The bottom of the chamber will be lined with a concrete slab conshytaining weep holes to release hydrostatic pressure under the lock

Estimates of the cost of the canal have been made on the basis of assumed ground elevations and assumed soil types Firmer estimates would require soil borings and finer mapping than has yet been done

It appears probable that the very large tidal power potential of the eastern portion of the Bay of Fundy will be economically devel~ped in the future This can be achieved without conflict with the construction and operation of the Canal If tidal power plants are built later in the Cumbershyland and Shepody Basins navigation would benefit from increased water depth in the Cumberland Basin

18

ENGINEERING ESTIMATES

The following excavation quantities are based upon assumed ground elevations

Canal

75500000 cu yd Dredging excavation

6500000 cu yd Rock excavation

2000000 cu yd Rock protection

Canal Approaches

13050000 cu yd Dredging-Cumberland Basin

12210000 cu yd Dredging-Baie Verte

Navigation Lock

825000 cu yd Earthwork including excavation backfill and pumping

155300 cu yd Concrete in lock chamber

37600 cu yd Concrete in 39 dolphins and bridging

2 sets of sector gates (94 x 100 opening) including equipment

28000 sq ft Sheet piling

Road Crossings

2 high level highway crossings

1 railway bridge (at lock)

Contingency 20

$30200000

13000000

8000000

4567500

4273500

1452000

3880000

1504000

4300000

84000

2600000

1100000

$51200000

8841000

11220000

3700000

$74961000

14992200

$89953200

APPENDIX B-1

Estimated Daily Running Expenses Under Free Flag-Ore Carriers amp General Cargo Ships

Total Carrying Personnel Capacity

(tOns) Officers I Crew

I ORE CARRIERS

20000 8 30

30000 8 30 N o 40000 8 32

50000 8 32

60000 8 35

GENERAL CARGO

7500 35 -e

10500 35

13500 35

Payroll $

25000

25000

27000

27000

30000

-

-

--- shy

(1) Includes certain insurance items

Victualing $

5000

5000

5500

5500

6000

--

--_

Stores $

(1956 Figures)

8000

8000

9000

9000

10000

(1958 Figures)

-

-

-

Repairs $

8000

8000

10000

12000

12000

-

-

Surveying $

3500

3500

4500

4500

5500

-

-

-

Manage ment

$

6500

6500

6500

6500

6500

--

-

Mise $

5000

5000

5000

5000

5000

-

-

-

Total Daily Running Expenses

$

61000

61000

67500

69500

75000

65000

65000(1)

80000(1)

APPENDIX Bmiddot2 Speed and fuel costs-per day

Ore Carriers and General Cargo Ships Under Free Flag

Carrying Price of FuelMiles Per Cost ofFuel TonsCapacity per ton Fuel per

I Per Day(tons) (Average) dayHour Day

ORE CARRIERS $ $

20000 (1) 120 25005 30 75000 (2 ) 15 360 2500 7500030 (3) 10- - 2500 25000

30000 (1 ) 120 2500 875005 35 (2 ) 360 2500 8750015 35 (3 ) - - 12 2500 30000

40000 (1) 120 10000040 25005 (2 ) 360 40 2500 10000015 (3) -- 250015 37500

50000 (1) 120 2500 1125005 45 (2 ) 11250015 360 45 2500 (3 ) - 18 2500 45000-

60000 (1 ) 5 120 2500 12500050 (2 ) 15 2500 125000360 50 (3 ) - 20 2500 50000-

GENERAL CARGO

7500 (1) 1205 15 2500 37500 (2 ) 15 360 250015 37500 (3) --- - -

10000 (1 ) 120 18 2500 450005 (2 ) 250015 360 18 45000 (3 ) - 7 2500 17500-

13500 (1) 1205 20 2500 ~OOOO (2 ) 15 360 20 2500 0000 (3 ) - - 10 2500 25000

(1) (2) (3)

Canal Sea Port

21

wise shipping will be opened from Yarmouth to Montreal on the one hand and to Newfoundland and Labrador on the other

Refined petroleum products from Saint John could be efficiently deshylivered along the northern coast of New Brunswick and to the ports of the lower St Lawrence and in turn products now shipped from Montreal could be distributed along the Bay of Fundy area Barite might be transported from Walton Nova Scotia through the St Lawrence for the oil fields of J Central and Western Canada The existence of the Canal would lead to a regular service from the Bay of Fundy to the north With such a service in operation the Bay of Fundy would lose its present unfortunate position I on a dead-end water road and would become a port of call on a water highshyway Furthermore developments which may be expected to take place in ports and areas of the region will lead to increasing needs which may be I met from other Maritime areas Growth in Saint John for example will lead to a greater demand for coal which might be met from New Brunswick and Nova Scotia mines

This will benefit some sections of the Maritimes such as the Bay of Fundy ports in particular as in addition to the advantages of further economic activity there will also be the advantages of transportation savings and consequently lowered costs generally Finally the evidence of existing industries indicates that labour-oriented industries will find location in the Maritimes attractive for transportation disadvantages will be lessened and the advantages of the labour market will retain If in addition the size of the Maritime market will support their operations market-oriented industries may find the Maritimes a better than average Canadian location

The most concrete evidence of the immediate industrial development which would commencemiddotmiddot with the undertaking to proceed with the conshystruction of the Chignecto Canal are the statements of intention formally presented to the Chignecto Canal Committee that investments of over $105000000 will be made in the Bay of Fundy area if and only if the Canal is built Without a detailed knowledge of these plans it is only possible to make approximations of the effects of this prospective investshyment The calculations which follow are therefore designed to produce reasonable statements but not forecasts

f As a first method of approximation we can assume that the investors

will expect a return of six per cent per annum after taxes Although it is not expected to be the case we will treat this investment as if it were all made in a single plant This means that the profit involved would be taxed

10

I

at almost 47 per cent The profit before taxes would therefore be expected to be $6 x 10053 = $113 millions Various manufacturing operations yield profit per sales dollar of from ten to twenty per cent Sales of these plants might be planned therefore in the range from $45 to $226 millions Taking the average of these two estimates we would expect a sales volume from the new plant of approximately $135 millions

This estimate can be compared with the published statistics for New Brunswick manufacturing industries for 1943 (the last year for which estimates of capital investment are given) In that year a capital investshyment estimated at $III287910 resulted in factory shipments valued at $1409348791 On this basis an investment of $100 millions would result in factory shipments valued at $133 millions approximately

A second method of approximating is to estimate the employment which will result from the new investment and the value of production which will result from this employment The information contained in the questionnaires returned to the Chignecto Committee indicates that one employee will be hired for each $10000 of investment roughly On this basis 10000 employees would be hired In 1957 the gross value of products per employee in New Brunswick manufacturing was approximately $150001 We would therefore estimate a total value of production of $155 millions

It may be expected then that an annual production of from 50 to over 200 million dollars would result from investment resulting from the construction of the Canal The best estimate would appear to be in the neighborhood of $140 millions

There will also be secondary effects of this investment A study of the secondary effects of the oil industry in Alberta which is presently being completed indicates that the secondary effects of investment in that industry are about equal to the primary effects If the same relationship holds for the new income from added manufacturing in New Brunswick the annual production discussed above will be doubled Since this assumes that only one-half of each dollar spent in New Brunswick for wages and materials is re-spent in the Atlantic provinces it appears to be an entirely reasonable estimate Perhaps more important the secondary employment effects would add a second 10000 persons to Atlantic payrolls for a total of 20000 persons f

We therefore conclude that this investment can reasonably be expected to result in an increase in the value of production of some $280

1 DBS The Manufacturing Industries of Canada Section B 1957 p 40

II

millions in the Atlantic Provinces The range of this estimated increase would be from $100 to $400 millions If one compares this increase with the manufacturtng activity of New Brunswick alone it will be seen that the increase in value of factory shipments will be almost equal to the I957 total value of factory shipments in manufacturing The importance of such a development to the economy of the Atlantic Provinces is obvious

The most immediate effects of the Canal will of course come from the construction expenditures The first effect therefore will be an increase in the Maritime income of approximately $90 millions However it is well known that an expenditure of this type has secondary effects which are more important than the primary one As the original sum is spent and re-spent by the successive recipients the income from it is multiplied In Canada the multiplier has been estimated as 33 from expenditures on construction1 Therefore the expenditure of $90 millions would in effect be an increase in income of approximately $300 millions

Not all of this of course would be spent in the Maritimes Still most of the materials would be purchased in the Maritimes and the labour would be local from the area In I957 the Dominion Bureau of Statistics figures indicate that these items formed 80 per cent of the value of conshystruction work performed This amount then would be almost entirely re-spent in the Maritimes It seems reasonably conservative to estimate that at least I60000000 dollars income would be generated in the Atlantic Provinces

If this Canal were to be considered solely or even chiefly in terms of the transportation savings based on present traffic which are outlined in the following section it would not be justified The justification of the Canal rests upon the contribution to the revivification of the Atlantic Provinces actively derived from the new industrial investment of more than $IOO millions which will follow the construction of the Canal There tan be no doubt that the increase of from $100 to $400 millions in the value of production will be of major significance in terms of the economic developshyment of the Atlantic Provinces The temporary increase in income of some $300 millions generated by the construction expenditures will be continued by the new industries established

Since the chief effect of the canal would be to encourage new inshydustry it is clear that it would encourage new trade rather thap divert trade from other shipping routes

1 Harvie Thomas Relationship of the Aircraft Industry to the Canadian Economy Unpubshylished MA Thesis Massachusetts Institute of Technology 1958

12

I

I I I I

IV

THE IMPACT OF THE CANAL ON EXISTING SHIPPING

The impact which the Chignecto Canal will eventually have on shipping patterns is discussed in the second part of this section It is imshyportant to note first what savings may be effected in shipping costs with the present patterns of trade Three principal routes will be affected first between the Great Lakes and St Lawrence ports and those of the Bay of Fundy and the eastern seaboard of the United States second between ports on the Bay of Fundy and ports to the north especially other ports in the Atlantic Provinces and third particularly at those times of year when northern tracks are being used between ports on the Bay of Fundy and northern European ports

To a ship-owner a canal is useful only if it permits entry into an area otherwise inaccessible or if it permits the use of ships more economical than would be possible without it or if it shortens the time of a voyage The saving in distance brought about by the canal must be considered in relation to the slower speed in restricted waterways delay in locks and so forth For an initial approach however an estimate of the total traffic which would use the canal may be obtained by noting the total trade which was being carried on between points w~ich would use the canal in a given year The estimates which follow are based on ~he 1957 traffic pattern

Potential Chignecto Canal Traffic

(Short Tons)

Traffic St Lawrence Bay of fundy

to South to Northern Atlantic Ports

Total

Inbound Outbound

Total

2800000 4 00000

1800000 150 000

4600000 I 550 000

3200000

I950 000

5150 000

i

The estimate for St Lawrence to South Atlantic ports is based on information supplied by the Dominion Bureau of Statistics on the likely use of the Canal by ships plying this route Certain downward adjustments were made to reduce the total by the amounts which were destined for ports considered to lie too far to the east to use the Canal

The potential of 5150000 for the Chignecto is almost half that which in the same year 1957 on which these estimates were based the St Lawrence Canals carried (12200000 tons)

Since even at a depth of 35 feet the ore trade would tend to seek deeper routes approximately 7000000 tons of iron ore from the St Lawshyrence to United States ports were excluded from these calculations Some part of the shipping involved would likely use the Canal at least on the return voyage

The Bay of Fundy - Northern Ports traffic was estimated on a proportional basis First the proportion which total trade of the Bay of Fundy ports to other eastern Canadian ports bears to the total trade of all New Brunswick and Nova Scotia ports to other eastern Canadian ports was found This proportion of loadings and unloadings was then applied separately to the trade of New Brunswick and Nova Scotia to other provshyinces individually To estimate the trade of Bay of Fundy ports with other ports of Nova Scotia and New Brunswick one-half of the proportionate share was taken This amount was used since in each case about one-half the coast line would not use the canal

Attempts to estimate the precise savings in shipping costs are very difficult The best route between two points is not necessarily the most direct Local conditions along the route may make deviations necessary Shipments from various ports to each destination must be estimated since only aggregated traffic statistics are published Nevertheless it is possible to make computations which indicate the order of magnitude of the savings which would be accomplished After allowance for delays in the canals because of lockage and slow speed in the restricted channel an examination of the 1957 shipping figures indicates savings of approximately $500000

The basis of the calculations is set out in Appendix B

A more important aspect of the impact on shipping cannot be illustrated by examination of the trade pattern of past years That is the amount of shipping activity which would be generated by the existence of the Canal The distance between Atlantic Provinces ports by water would be cut in some cases by as much as 415 nautical miles The existence of this short route would in itself create an impetus to increased coastwise shipshyping The fact that two of these provinces are isolated by water of course lends emphasis to the use which must be made of ships

Again it is impossible to give numerical estimates of the coastwise shipping which would be generated There are however three reasons for believing that an increase will take place

Shipping trade already exists between ports north of and south of the Chignecto Isthmus Empirically it has been found that trade between closer points is greater than between more widely separated points Further this difference seems to be more closely related to the square of the difference than to the difference itself Thus halving the effective transportation route between the two points will tend to quadruple the trade between them

The Canal would make the Bay of Fundy a natural extension of the route from the Great Lakes to the ports of the Eastern United States and the Panama Canal

The fact of more frequent sailings between these ports would itself create more offerings of traffic as shippers became aware of the possibility of faster service

While it is not possible to make numerical calculations of the amount which might be saved in this trade there can be no doubt that the stimulashytion which the Canal will give to shipping in the area will expand the savings in transportation costs considerably

In addition to the traffic generated immediately there will in future years be a natural growth of trade The use of the St Lawrence Canal to give an example has been very closely related to general economic activity in Canada1 The tremendous rate of growth in Canadas economy has been sufficient to cause a doubling in real Gross National Product every fifteen years Even if we assumt a more modest rate of increase in the future it is clear that the use of the Canal will grow quickly once it is established Even so the savings in transportation costs estimated in this section would not in themselves be justification for constructing the Canal However it is obvious that since the new industry discussed in the previous section is predicated upon the existence of the Canal this new industry will be an important user of the Canal and will greatly expand its use

A new water route will be established which will permit the use of a different type of craft to those used in ocean travel It could be a lakershytype boat which could operate under a restricted international licence and with personnel certified for home trade and would be much less expensive to build and to operate than a normal ship New services could thus operate successfully in a Maritime area which is not now adequately served by sea transportation f

The result will be to revitalize the area economically

1 Tonnage carried through the Sf Lawrence Canal and Gross National Expenditure in constant 1949 dollars are very highly correlated for the eleven years 1947-1957 (r = 948)

IS

v TIMING OF THE CHIGNECTO CANAL PROJECT

It is obvious that the more quickly the Chignecto Canal is built the quicker benefits will flow from it If an immediate start is made final engineering examinationmiddot and specification will not be completed until 1961 The cost of the engineering study necessary before the final cost of construction can be confirmed has been put at $350000 by Foundation of Canada Engineering Corporation Limited It might be argued that a time when the Government of Canada and our financial institutions are preshyoccupied with fighting inflation is not a time to consider large expendishytures However the Atlantic Provinces as is well known suffer from what

might fairly be described as a permanent recession This project would be a most valuable addition to the governmental armoury of weapons to combat regional depression It has the following important advantages

It is sufficiently large that it will have a decided impact on the economy of the Maritime Provinces

It will create advantages of lasting benefit to the eastern part of Canada

Should this project be undertaken as part of a programme to combat regional depression the cost to Canada will be less than the expenditures on it These expenditures will be offSet in part by expenditures which w0ud otherwise be made for unemployment insurance am might make it possible to reduce certain other subsidies In fact since the effect is multiplied this saving will be more than the direct replacement of wages for unemployment insurance In addition some part of the cost will be reshycovered as corporate and personal income taxes which would not otherwise be due The calculations of Section III would indicate that corporate income taxes from new industry resulting from the Canal would be in the order of $10 rriilHons The actual ~et cost to the Government of Canada of the Canal could therefore be negative

16

APPENDIX A

GENERAL DESCRIPTION AND LOCATIONl

Engineers have considered four routes for the Canal A route along the Missaguash River is thought to be the most advantageous as it would pass through marshland along four-fifths of its length and would present the smallest excavation problem It is about 16 miles long This route is illustrated in the inset map numbered 1

There is a shorter possible route from Moncton to Shediac Bay which would be between 12 and IS miles long As it runs over high ground however the amount of excavation needed would be at least three times the amount required for the Missaguash route (I)

The Canal will form a natural extension of the St Lawrence Ship Channel It should therefore be of at least the 27-foot depth of the St Lawrence Seaway Preliminary engineering reports indicate that a 35-foot depth which prevails up to Montreal will be practicable This is the more important as the average size of ocean-going ships is increasing In 1958 about half the available ocean-going tonnage required a depth of over 30 feet when fully loaded

If the ore and tanker trades are important even greater depth is reshyquired A depth of 40 feet can be considered minimum for large oreshycarriers Charts I to IV illustrate this diffetence and the tendency for the average size of ships to grow One source of confusion is the abundance of Liberty ships which are still in existence While these ~hips exist they are already becoming of uneconomical size (and of course age) On Noshyvember 1st 1958 over 400 Liberty ships were inactive

A depth of 35 feet will allow tankers up to 25000 tons dwt and other ships up to 20000 tons dwt with a maximum 32 foot draft to use the canal when fully loaded

The difference in tide levels between Cumberland Basin and Baie Verte makes at least one lock necessary The maximum tide range in Baie Verte is about 10 feet compared to 50 feet in Cumberland Basin while extreme tides at Cumberland Basin are about 20 feet lower or higher than at Baie Verte

The cost of a 35-foot deep canal with a width of 300 feet including the cost of one lock approach facilities to the canal one railroad crossing and two highway crossings but exclusive of land expropriation costs was estimated at approximately $90 millions by Foundation of Canada Enshy

1 Engineering information included in this section has been summarized from A Preliminary Engineering Report on the Chignecto Canal prepared by Foundation of Canada Engineering Corporation Limited (April 1959)

17

gineering Corporation Limited The plan together with the proposal to employ one lock is the result of close cooperation between the Corporation and LaSalle Hydraulic Laboratory It has been independently examined and approved by Professor P Danel President of Sogeah in France who is a leading world authority on hydraulics and we believe the system proshyposed in the report to be worthy of the most careful study before it is abandoned in favour of a two-lock system

With one lock at the Cumberland Basin entrance the canals water level will fluctuate from about 0 - 8 feet with the Baie Verte tides With two locks one at either end the canals water level can be kept constant at about I4 - 16 feet above low tide at Baie Verte One lock will naturally reduce the time of a ships passage through the canal will decrease mainshytenance costs and will enable ships with 36 foot drafts to pass through at high tide since the time of the passage which is zt-3 hours would be shorter than the time during which the water level in the canal will be higher than the 35 foot minimum One lock will also avoid the drainage problem which will be raised when the canal with its constant water level will cut across the Missaguash River These advantages of the one lock system outweigh the extra excavation which will be required to maintain the 35 foot depth at low tide

The lock chamber would be 800 feet long and 100 feet wide which is the minimum size required to handle large tankers freighters or carriers and tugs towing barges The time for the passage of a ship through the lock would not exceed 30 minutes

The lock will consist of a main chamber gates and filling system and approaches with mooring facilities on both sides A railway bridge will be located at the south end The chamber walls will be of concrete crib construction with the cribs 60 feet wide and 95 feet high filled with gravel or rock and provided with mooring facilities

The bottom of the chamber will be lined with a concrete slab conshytaining weep holes to release hydrostatic pressure under the lock

Estimates of the cost of the canal have been made on the basis of assumed ground elevations and assumed soil types Firmer estimates would require soil borings and finer mapping than has yet been done

It appears probable that the very large tidal power potential of the eastern portion of the Bay of Fundy will be economically devel~ped in the future This can be achieved without conflict with the construction and operation of the Canal If tidal power plants are built later in the Cumbershyland and Shepody Basins navigation would benefit from increased water depth in the Cumberland Basin

18

ENGINEERING ESTIMATES

The following excavation quantities are based upon assumed ground elevations

Canal

75500000 cu yd Dredging excavation

6500000 cu yd Rock excavation

2000000 cu yd Rock protection

Canal Approaches

13050000 cu yd Dredging-Cumberland Basin

12210000 cu yd Dredging-Baie Verte

Navigation Lock

825000 cu yd Earthwork including excavation backfill and pumping

155300 cu yd Concrete in lock chamber

37600 cu yd Concrete in 39 dolphins and bridging

2 sets of sector gates (94 x 100 opening) including equipment

28000 sq ft Sheet piling

Road Crossings

2 high level highway crossings

1 railway bridge (at lock)

Contingency 20

$30200000

13000000

8000000

4567500

4273500

1452000

3880000

1504000

4300000

84000

2600000

1100000

$51200000

8841000

11220000

3700000

$74961000

14992200

$89953200

APPENDIX B-1

Estimated Daily Running Expenses Under Free Flag-Ore Carriers amp General Cargo Ships

Total Carrying Personnel Capacity

(tOns) Officers I Crew

I ORE CARRIERS

20000 8 30

30000 8 30 N o 40000 8 32

50000 8 32

60000 8 35

GENERAL CARGO

7500 35 -e

10500 35

13500 35

Payroll $

25000

25000

27000

27000

30000

-

-

--- shy

(1) Includes certain insurance items

Victualing $

5000

5000

5500

5500

6000

--

--_

Stores $

(1956 Figures)

8000

8000

9000

9000

10000

(1958 Figures)

-

-

-

Repairs $

8000

8000

10000

12000

12000

-

-

Surveying $

3500

3500

4500

4500

5500

-

-

-

Manage ment

$

6500

6500

6500

6500

6500

--

-

Mise $

5000

5000

5000

5000

5000

-

-

-

Total Daily Running Expenses

$

61000

61000

67500

69500

75000

65000

65000(1)

80000(1)

APPENDIX Bmiddot2 Speed and fuel costs-per day

Ore Carriers and General Cargo Ships Under Free Flag

Carrying Price of FuelMiles Per Cost ofFuel TonsCapacity per ton Fuel per

I Per Day(tons) (Average) dayHour Day

ORE CARRIERS $ $

20000 (1) 120 25005 30 75000 (2 ) 15 360 2500 7500030 (3) 10- - 2500 25000

30000 (1 ) 120 2500 875005 35 (2 ) 360 2500 8750015 35 (3 ) - - 12 2500 30000

40000 (1) 120 10000040 25005 (2 ) 360 40 2500 10000015 (3) -- 250015 37500

50000 (1) 120 2500 1125005 45 (2 ) 11250015 360 45 2500 (3 ) - 18 2500 45000-

60000 (1 ) 5 120 2500 12500050 (2 ) 15 2500 125000360 50 (3 ) - 20 2500 50000-

GENERAL CARGO

7500 (1) 1205 15 2500 37500 (2 ) 15 360 250015 37500 (3) --- - -

10000 (1 ) 120 18 2500 450005 (2 ) 250015 360 18 45000 (3 ) - 7 2500 17500-

13500 (1) 1205 20 2500 ~OOOO (2 ) 15 360 20 2500 0000 (3 ) - - 10 2500 25000

(1) (2) (3)

Canal Sea Port

21

at almost 47 per cent The profit before taxes would therefore be expected to be $6 x 10053 = $113 millions Various manufacturing operations yield profit per sales dollar of from ten to twenty per cent Sales of these plants might be planned therefore in the range from $45 to $226 millions Taking the average of these two estimates we would expect a sales volume from the new plant of approximately $135 millions

This estimate can be compared with the published statistics for New Brunswick manufacturing industries for 1943 (the last year for which estimates of capital investment are given) In that year a capital investshyment estimated at $III287910 resulted in factory shipments valued at $1409348791 On this basis an investment of $100 millions would result in factory shipments valued at $133 millions approximately

A second method of approximating is to estimate the employment which will result from the new investment and the value of production which will result from this employment The information contained in the questionnaires returned to the Chignecto Committee indicates that one employee will be hired for each $10000 of investment roughly On this basis 10000 employees would be hired In 1957 the gross value of products per employee in New Brunswick manufacturing was approximately $150001 We would therefore estimate a total value of production of $155 millions

It may be expected then that an annual production of from 50 to over 200 million dollars would result from investment resulting from the construction of the Canal The best estimate would appear to be in the neighborhood of $140 millions

There will also be secondary effects of this investment A study of the secondary effects of the oil industry in Alberta which is presently being completed indicates that the secondary effects of investment in that industry are about equal to the primary effects If the same relationship holds for the new income from added manufacturing in New Brunswick the annual production discussed above will be doubled Since this assumes that only one-half of each dollar spent in New Brunswick for wages and materials is re-spent in the Atlantic provinces it appears to be an entirely reasonable estimate Perhaps more important the secondary employment effects would add a second 10000 persons to Atlantic payrolls for a total of 20000 persons f

We therefore conclude that this investment can reasonably be expected to result in an increase in the value of production of some $280

1 DBS The Manufacturing Industries of Canada Section B 1957 p 40

II

millions in the Atlantic Provinces The range of this estimated increase would be from $100 to $400 millions If one compares this increase with the manufacturtng activity of New Brunswick alone it will be seen that the increase in value of factory shipments will be almost equal to the I957 total value of factory shipments in manufacturing The importance of such a development to the economy of the Atlantic Provinces is obvious

The most immediate effects of the Canal will of course come from the construction expenditures The first effect therefore will be an increase in the Maritime income of approximately $90 millions However it is well known that an expenditure of this type has secondary effects which are more important than the primary one As the original sum is spent and re-spent by the successive recipients the income from it is multiplied In Canada the multiplier has been estimated as 33 from expenditures on construction1 Therefore the expenditure of $90 millions would in effect be an increase in income of approximately $300 millions

Not all of this of course would be spent in the Maritimes Still most of the materials would be purchased in the Maritimes and the labour would be local from the area In I957 the Dominion Bureau of Statistics figures indicate that these items formed 80 per cent of the value of conshystruction work performed This amount then would be almost entirely re-spent in the Maritimes It seems reasonably conservative to estimate that at least I60000000 dollars income would be generated in the Atlantic Provinces

If this Canal were to be considered solely or even chiefly in terms of the transportation savings based on present traffic which are outlined in the following section it would not be justified The justification of the Canal rests upon the contribution to the revivification of the Atlantic Provinces actively derived from the new industrial investment of more than $IOO millions which will follow the construction of the Canal There tan be no doubt that the increase of from $100 to $400 millions in the value of production will be of major significance in terms of the economic developshyment of the Atlantic Provinces The temporary increase in income of some $300 millions generated by the construction expenditures will be continued by the new industries established

Since the chief effect of the canal would be to encourage new inshydustry it is clear that it would encourage new trade rather thap divert trade from other shipping routes

1 Harvie Thomas Relationship of the Aircraft Industry to the Canadian Economy Unpubshylished MA Thesis Massachusetts Institute of Technology 1958

12

I

I I I I

IV

THE IMPACT OF THE CANAL ON EXISTING SHIPPING

The impact which the Chignecto Canal will eventually have on shipping patterns is discussed in the second part of this section It is imshyportant to note first what savings may be effected in shipping costs with the present patterns of trade Three principal routes will be affected first between the Great Lakes and St Lawrence ports and those of the Bay of Fundy and the eastern seaboard of the United States second between ports on the Bay of Fundy and ports to the north especially other ports in the Atlantic Provinces and third particularly at those times of year when northern tracks are being used between ports on the Bay of Fundy and northern European ports

To a ship-owner a canal is useful only if it permits entry into an area otherwise inaccessible or if it permits the use of ships more economical than would be possible without it or if it shortens the time of a voyage The saving in distance brought about by the canal must be considered in relation to the slower speed in restricted waterways delay in locks and so forth For an initial approach however an estimate of the total traffic which would use the canal may be obtained by noting the total trade which was being carried on between points w~ich would use the canal in a given year The estimates which follow are based on ~he 1957 traffic pattern

Potential Chignecto Canal Traffic

(Short Tons)

Traffic St Lawrence Bay of fundy

to South to Northern Atlantic Ports

Total

Inbound Outbound

Total

2800000 4 00000

1800000 150 000

4600000 I 550 000

3200000

I950 000

5150 000

i

The estimate for St Lawrence to South Atlantic ports is based on information supplied by the Dominion Bureau of Statistics on the likely use of the Canal by ships plying this route Certain downward adjustments were made to reduce the total by the amounts which were destined for ports considered to lie too far to the east to use the Canal

The potential of 5150000 for the Chignecto is almost half that which in the same year 1957 on which these estimates were based the St Lawrence Canals carried (12200000 tons)

Since even at a depth of 35 feet the ore trade would tend to seek deeper routes approximately 7000000 tons of iron ore from the St Lawshyrence to United States ports were excluded from these calculations Some part of the shipping involved would likely use the Canal at least on the return voyage

The Bay of Fundy - Northern Ports traffic was estimated on a proportional basis First the proportion which total trade of the Bay of Fundy ports to other eastern Canadian ports bears to the total trade of all New Brunswick and Nova Scotia ports to other eastern Canadian ports was found This proportion of loadings and unloadings was then applied separately to the trade of New Brunswick and Nova Scotia to other provshyinces individually To estimate the trade of Bay of Fundy ports with other ports of Nova Scotia and New Brunswick one-half of the proportionate share was taken This amount was used since in each case about one-half the coast line would not use the canal

Attempts to estimate the precise savings in shipping costs are very difficult The best route between two points is not necessarily the most direct Local conditions along the route may make deviations necessary Shipments from various ports to each destination must be estimated since only aggregated traffic statistics are published Nevertheless it is possible to make computations which indicate the order of magnitude of the savings which would be accomplished After allowance for delays in the canals because of lockage and slow speed in the restricted channel an examination of the 1957 shipping figures indicates savings of approximately $500000

The basis of the calculations is set out in Appendix B

A more important aspect of the impact on shipping cannot be illustrated by examination of the trade pattern of past years That is the amount of shipping activity which would be generated by the existence of the Canal The distance between Atlantic Provinces ports by water would be cut in some cases by as much as 415 nautical miles The existence of this short route would in itself create an impetus to increased coastwise shipshyping The fact that two of these provinces are isolated by water of course lends emphasis to the use which must be made of ships

Again it is impossible to give numerical estimates of the coastwise shipping which would be generated There are however three reasons for believing that an increase will take place

Shipping trade already exists between ports north of and south of the Chignecto Isthmus Empirically it has been found that trade between closer points is greater than between more widely separated points Further this difference seems to be more closely related to the square of the difference than to the difference itself Thus halving the effective transportation route between the two points will tend to quadruple the trade between them

The Canal would make the Bay of Fundy a natural extension of the route from the Great Lakes to the ports of the Eastern United States and the Panama Canal

The fact of more frequent sailings between these ports would itself create more offerings of traffic as shippers became aware of the possibility of faster service

While it is not possible to make numerical calculations of the amount which might be saved in this trade there can be no doubt that the stimulashytion which the Canal will give to shipping in the area will expand the savings in transportation costs considerably

In addition to the traffic generated immediately there will in future years be a natural growth of trade The use of the St Lawrence Canal to give an example has been very closely related to general economic activity in Canada1 The tremendous rate of growth in Canadas economy has been sufficient to cause a doubling in real Gross National Product every fifteen years Even if we assumt a more modest rate of increase in the future it is clear that the use of the Canal will grow quickly once it is established Even so the savings in transportation costs estimated in this section would not in themselves be justification for constructing the Canal However it is obvious that since the new industry discussed in the previous section is predicated upon the existence of the Canal this new industry will be an important user of the Canal and will greatly expand its use

A new water route will be established which will permit the use of a different type of craft to those used in ocean travel It could be a lakershytype boat which could operate under a restricted international licence and with personnel certified for home trade and would be much less expensive to build and to operate than a normal ship New services could thus operate successfully in a Maritime area which is not now adequately served by sea transportation f

The result will be to revitalize the area economically

1 Tonnage carried through the Sf Lawrence Canal and Gross National Expenditure in constant 1949 dollars are very highly correlated for the eleven years 1947-1957 (r = 948)

IS

v TIMING OF THE CHIGNECTO CANAL PROJECT

It is obvious that the more quickly the Chignecto Canal is built the quicker benefits will flow from it If an immediate start is made final engineering examinationmiddot and specification will not be completed until 1961 The cost of the engineering study necessary before the final cost of construction can be confirmed has been put at $350000 by Foundation of Canada Engineering Corporation Limited It might be argued that a time when the Government of Canada and our financial institutions are preshyoccupied with fighting inflation is not a time to consider large expendishytures However the Atlantic Provinces as is well known suffer from what

might fairly be described as a permanent recession This project would be a most valuable addition to the governmental armoury of weapons to combat regional depression It has the following important advantages

It is sufficiently large that it will have a decided impact on the economy of the Maritime Provinces

It will create advantages of lasting benefit to the eastern part of Canada

Should this project be undertaken as part of a programme to combat regional depression the cost to Canada will be less than the expenditures on it These expenditures will be offSet in part by expenditures which w0ud otherwise be made for unemployment insurance am might make it possible to reduce certain other subsidies In fact since the effect is multiplied this saving will be more than the direct replacement of wages for unemployment insurance In addition some part of the cost will be reshycovered as corporate and personal income taxes which would not otherwise be due The calculations of Section III would indicate that corporate income taxes from new industry resulting from the Canal would be in the order of $10 rriilHons The actual ~et cost to the Government of Canada of the Canal could therefore be negative

16

APPENDIX A

GENERAL DESCRIPTION AND LOCATIONl

Engineers have considered four routes for the Canal A route along the Missaguash River is thought to be the most advantageous as it would pass through marshland along four-fifths of its length and would present the smallest excavation problem It is about 16 miles long This route is illustrated in the inset map numbered 1

There is a shorter possible route from Moncton to Shediac Bay which would be between 12 and IS miles long As it runs over high ground however the amount of excavation needed would be at least three times the amount required for the Missaguash route (I)

The Canal will form a natural extension of the St Lawrence Ship Channel It should therefore be of at least the 27-foot depth of the St Lawrence Seaway Preliminary engineering reports indicate that a 35-foot depth which prevails up to Montreal will be practicable This is the more important as the average size of ocean-going ships is increasing In 1958 about half the available ocean-going tonnage required a depth of over 30 feet when fully loaded

If the ore and tanker trades are important even greater depth is reshyquired A depth of 40 feet can be considered minimum for large oreshycarriers Charts I to IV illustrate this diffetence and the tendency for the average size of ships to grow One source of confusion is the abundance of Liberty ships which are still in existence While these ~hips exist they are already becoming of uneconomical size (and of course age) On Noshyvember 1st 1958 over 400 Liberty ships were inactive

A depth of 35 feet will allow tankers up to 25000 tons dwt and other ships up to 20000 tons dwt with a maximum 32 foot draft to use the canal when fully loaded

The difference in tide levels between Cumberland Basin and Baie Verte makes at least one lock necessary The maximum tide range in Baie Verte is about 10 feet compared to 50 feet in Cumberland Basin while extreme tides at Cumberland Basin are about 20 feet lower or higher than at Baie Verte

The cost of a 35-foot deep canal with a width of 300 feet including the cost of one lock approach facilities to the canal one railroad crossing and two highway crossings but exclusive of land expropriation costs was estimated at approximately $90 millions by Foundation of Canada Enshy

1 Engineering information included in this section has been summarized from A Preliminary Engineering Report on the Chignecto Canal prepared by Foundation of Canada Engineering Corporation Limited (April 1959)

17

gineering Corporation Limited The plan together with the proposal to employ one lock is the result of close cooperation between the Corporation and LaSalle Hydraulic Laboratory It has been independently examined and approved by Professor P Danel President of Sogeah in France who is a leading world authority on hydraulics and we believe the system proshyposed in the report to be worthy of the most careful study before it is abandoned in favour of a two-lock system

With one lock at the Cumberland Basin entrance the canals water level will fluctuate from about 0 - 8 feet with the Baie Verte tides With two locks one at either end the canals water level can be kept constant at about I4 - 16 feet above low tide at Baie Verte One lock will naturally reduce the time of a ships passage through the canal will decrease mainshytenance costs and will enable ships with 36 foot drafts to pass through at high tide since the time of the passage which is zt-3 hours would be shorter than the time during which the water level in the canal will be higher than the 35 foot minimum One lock will also avoid the drainage problem which will be raised when the canal with its constant water level will cut across the Missaguash River These advantages of the one lock system outweigh the extra excavation which will be required to maintain the 35 foot depth at low tide

The lock chamber would be 800 feet long and 100 feet wide which is the minimum size required to handle large tankers freighters or carriers and tugs towing barges The time for the passage of a ship through the lock would not exceed 30 minutes

The lock will consist of a main chamber gates and filling system and approaches with mooring facilities on both sides A railway bridge will be located at the south end The chamber walls will be of concrete crib construction with the cribs 60 feet wide and 95 feet high filled with gravel or rock and provided with mooring facilities

The bottom of the chamber will be lined with a concrete slab conshytaining weep holes to release hydrostatic pressure under the lock

Estimates of the cost of the canal have been made on the basis of assumed ground elevations and assumed soil types Firmer estimates would require soil borings and finer mapping than has yet been done

It appears probable that the very large tidal power potential of the eastern portion of the Bay of Fundy will be economically devel~ped in the future This can be achieved without conflict with the construction and operation of the Canal If tidal power plants are built later in the Cumbershyland and Shepody Basins navigation would benefit from increased water depth in the Cumberland Basin

18

ENGINEERING ESTIMATES

The following excavation quantities are based upon assumed ground elevations

Canal

75500000 cu yd Dredging excavation

6500000 cu yd Rock excavation

2000000 cu yd Rock protection

Canal Approaches

13050000 cu yd Dredging-Cumberland Basin

12210000 cu yd Dredging-Baie Verte

Navigation Lock

825000 cu yd Earthwork including excavation backfill and pumping

155300 cu yd Concrete in lock chamber

37600 cu yd Concrete in 39 dolphins and bridging

2 sets of sector gates (94 x 100 opening) including equipment

28000 sq ft Sheet piling

Road Crossings

2 high level highway crossings

1 railway bridge (at lock)

Contingency 20

$30200000

13000000

8000000

4567500

4273500

1452000

3880000

1504000

4300000

84000

2600000

1100000

$51200000

8841000

11220000

3700000

$74961000

14992200

$89953200

APPENDIX B-1

Estimated Daily Running Expenses Under Free Flag-Ore Carriers amp General Cargo Ships

Total Carrying Personnel Capacity

(tOns) Officers I Crew

I ORE CARRIERS

20000 8 30

30000 8 30 N o 40000 8 32

50000 8 32

60000 8 35

GENERAL CARGO

7500 35 -e

10500 35

13500 35

Payroll $

25000

25000

27000

27000

30000

-

-

--- shy

(1) Includes certain insurance items

Victualing $

5000

5000

5500

5500

6000

--

--_

Stores $

(1956 Figures)

8000

8000

9000

9000

10000

(1958 Figures)

-

-

-

Repairs $

8000

8000

10000

12000

12000

-

-

Surveying $

3500

3500

4500

4500

5500

-

-

-

Manage ment

$

6500

6500

6500

6500

6500

--

-

Mise $

5000

5000

5000

5000

5000

-

-

-

Total Daily Running Expenses

$

61000

61000

67500

69500

75000

65000

65000(1)

80000(1)

APPENDIX Bmiddot2 Speed and fuel costs-per day

Ore Carriers and General Cargo Ships Under Free Flag

Carrying Price of FuelMiles Per Cost ofFuel TonsCapacity per ton Fuel per

I Per Day(tons) (Average) dayHour Day

ORE CARRIERS $ $

20000 (1) 120 25005 30 75000 (2 ) 15 360 2500 7500030 (3) 10- - 2500 25000

30000 (1 ) 120 2500 875005 35 (2 ) 360 2500 8750015 35 (3 ) - - 12 2500 30000

40000 (1) 120 10000040 25005 (2 ) 360 40 2500 10000015 (3) -- 250015 37500

50000 (1) 120 2500 1125005 45 (2 ) 11250015 360 45 2500 (3 ) - 18 2500 45000-

60000 (1 ) 5 120 2500 12500050 (2 ) 15 2500 125000360 50 (3 ) - 20 2500 50000-

GENERAL CARGO

7500 (1) 1205 15 2500 37500 (2 ) 15 360 250015 37500 (3) --- - -

10000 (1 ) 120 18 2500 450005 (2 ) 250015 360 18 45000 (3 ) - 7 2500 17500-

13500 (1) 1205 20 2500 ~OOOO (2 ) 15 360 20 2500 0000 (3 ) - - 10 2500 25000

(1) (2) (3)

Canal Sea Port

21

millions in the Atlantic Provinces The range of this estimated increase would be from $100 to $400 millions If one compares this increase with the manufacturtng activity of New Brunswick alone it will be seen that the increase in value of factory shipments will be almost equal to the I957 total value of factory shipments in manufacturing The importance of such a development to the economy of the Atlantic Provinces is obvious

The most immediate effects of the Canal will of course come from the construction expenditures The first effect therefore will be an increase in the Maritime income of approximately $90 millions However it is well known that an expenditure of this type has secondary effects which are more important than the primary one As the original sum is spent and re-spent by the successive recipients the income from it is multiplied In Canada the multiplier has been estimated as 33 from expenditures on construction1 Therefore the expenditure of $90 millions would in effect be an increase in income of approximately $300 millions

Not all of this of course would be spent in the Maritimes Still most of the materials would be purchased in the Maritimes and the labour would be local from the area In I957 the Dominion Bureau of Statistics figures indicate that these items formed 80 per cent of the value of conshystruction work performed This amount then would be almost entirely re-spent in the Maritimes It seems reasonably conservative to estimate that at least I60000000 dollars income would be generated in the Atlantic Provinces

If this Canal were to be considered solely or even chiefly in terms of the transportation savings based on present traffic which are outlined in the following section it would not be justified The justification of the Canal rests upon the contribution to the revivification of the Atlantic Provinces actively derived from the new industrial investment of more than $IOO millions which will follow the construction of the Canal There tan be no doubt that the increase of from $100 to $400 millions in the value of production will be of major significance in terms of the economic developshyment of the Atlantic Provinces The temporary increase in income of some $300 millions generated by the construction expenditures will be continued by the new industries established

Since the chief effect of the canal would be to encourage new inshydustry it is clear that it would encourage new trade rather thap divert trade from other shipping routes

1 Harvie Thomas Relationship of the Aircraft Industry to the Canadian Economy Unpubshylished MA Thesis Massachusetts Institute of Technology 1958

12

I

I I I I

IV

THE IMPACT OF THE CANAL ON EXISTING SHIPPING

The impact which the Chignecto Canal will eventually have on shipping patterns is discussed in the second part of this section It is imshyportant to note first what savings may be effected in shipping costs with the present patterns of trade Three principal routes will be affected first between the Great Lakes and St Lawrence ports and those of the Bay of Fundy and the eastern seaboard of the United States second between ports on the Bay of Fundy and ports to the north especially other ports in the Atlantic Provinces and third particularly at those times of year when northern tracks are being used between ports on the Bay of Fundy and northern European ports

To a ship-owner a canal is useful only if it permits entry into an area otherwise inaccessible or if it permits the use of ships more economical than would be possible without it or if it shortens the time of a voyage The saving in distance brought about by the canal must be considered in relation to the slower speed in restricted waterways delay in locks and so forth For an initial approach however an estimate of the total traffic which would use the canal may be obtained by noting the total trade which was being carried on between points w~ich would use the canal in a given year The estimates which follow are based on ~he 1957 traffic pattern

Potential Chignecto Canal Traffic

(Short Tons)

Traffic St Lawrence Bay of fundy

to South to Northern Atlantic Ports

Total

Inbound Outbound

Total

2800000 4 00000

1800000 150 000

4600000 I 550 000

3200000

I950 000

5150 000

i

The estimate for St Lawrence to South Atlantic ports is based on information supplied by the Dominion Bureau of Statistics on the likely use of the Canal by ships plying this route Certain downward adjustments were made to reduce the total by the amounts which were destined for ports considered to lie too far to the east to use the Canal

The potential of 5150000 for the Chignecto is almost half that which in the same year 1957 on which these estimates were based the St Lawrence Canals carried (12200000 tons)

Since even at a depth of 35 feet the ore trade would tend to seek deeper routes approximately 7000000 tons of iron ore from the St Lawshyrence to United States ports were excluded from these calculations Some part of the shipping involved would likely use the Canal at least on the return voyage

The Bay of Fundy - Northern Ports traffic was estimated on a proportional basis First the proportion which total trade of the Bay of Fundy ports to other eastern Canadian ports bears to the total trade of all New Brunswick and Nova Scotia ports to other eastern Canadian ports was found This proportion of loadings and unloadings was then applied separately to the trade of New Brunswick and Nova Scotia to other provshyinces individually To estimate the trade of Bay of Fundy ports with other ports of Nova Scotia and New Brunswick one-half of the proportionate share was taken This amount was used since in each case about one-half the coast line would not use the canal

Attempts to estimate the precise savings in shipping costs are very difficult The best route between two points is not necessarily the most direct Local conditions along the route may make deviations necessary Shipments from various ports to each destination must be estimated since only aggregated traffic statistics are published Nevertheless it is possible to make computations which indicate the order of magnitude of the savings which would be accomplished After allowance for delays in the canals because of lockage and slow speed in the restricted channel an examination of the 1957 shipping figures indicates savings of approximately $500000

The basis of the calculations is set out in Appendix B

A more important aspect of the impact on shipping cannot be illustrated by examination of the trade pattern of past years That is the amount of shipping activity which would be generated by the existence of the Canal The distance between Atlantic Provinces ports by water would be cut in some cases by as much as 415 nautical miles The existence of this short route would in itself create an impetus to increased coastwise shipshyping The fact that two of these provinces are isolated by water of course lends emphasis to the use which must be made of ships

Again it is impossible to give numerical estimates of the coastwise shipping which would be generated There are however three reasons for believing that an increase will take place

Shipping trade already exists between ports north of and south of the Chignecto Isthmus Empirically it has been found that trade between closer points is greater than between more widely separated points Further this difference seems to be more closely related to the square of the difference than to the difference itself Thus halving the effective transportation route between the two points will tend to quadruple the trade between them

The Canal would make the Bay of Fundy a natural extension of the route from the Great Lakes to the ports of the Eastern United States and the Panama Canal

The fact of more frequent sailings between these ports would itself create more offerings of traffic as shippers became aware of the possibility of faster service

While it is not possible to make numerical calculations of the amount which might be saved in this trade there can be no doubt that the stimulashytion which the Canal will give to shipping in the area will expand the savings in transportation costs considerably

In addition to the traffic generated immediately there will in future years be a natural growth of trade The use of the St Lawrence Canal to give an example has been very closely related to general economic activity in Canada1 The tremendous rate of growth in Canadas economy has been sufficient to cause a doubling in real Gross National Product every fifteen years Even if we assumt a more modest rate of increase in the future it is clear that the use of the Canal will grow quickly once it is established Even so the savings in transportation costs estimated in this section would not in themselves be justification for constructing the Canal However it is obvious that since the new industry discussed in the previous section is predicated upon the existence of the Canal this new industry will be an important user of the Canal and will greatly expand its use

A new water route will be established which will permit the use of a different type of craft to those used in ocean travel It could be a lakershytype boat which could operate under a restricted international licence and with personnel certified for home trade and would be much less expensive to build and to operate than a normal ship New services could thus operate successfully in a Maritime area which is not now adequately served by sea transportation f

The result will be to revitalize the area economically

1 Tonnage carried through the Sf Lawrence Canal and Gross National Expenditure in constant 1949 dollars are very highly correlated for the eleven years 1947-1957 (r = 948)

IS

v TIMING OF THE CHIGNECTO CANAL PROJECT

It is obvious that the more quickly the Chignecto Canal is built the quicker benefits will flow from it If an immediate start is made final engineering examinationmiddot and specification will not be completed until 1961 The cost of the engineering study necessary before the final cost of construction can be confirmed has been put at $350000 by Foundation of Canada Engineering Corporation Limited It might be argued that a time when the Government of Canada and our financial institutions are preshyoccupied with fighting inflation is not a time to consider large expendishytures However the Atlantic Provinces as is well known suffer from what

might fairly be described as a permanent recession This project would be a most valuable addition to the governmental armoury of weapons to combat regional depression It has the following important advantages

It is sufficiently large that it will have a decided impact on the economy of the Maritime Provinces

It will create advantages of lasting benefit to the eastern part of Canada

Should this project be undertaken as part of a programme to combat regional depression the cost to Canada will be less than the expenditures on it These expenditures will be offSet in part by expenditures which w0ud otherwise be made for unemployment insurance am might make it possible to reduce certain other subsidies In fact since the effect is multiplied this saving will be more than the direct replacement of wages for unemployment insurance In addition some part of the cost will be reshycovered as corporate and personal income taxes which would not otherwise be due The calculations of Section III would indicate that corporate income taxes from new industry resulting from the Canal would be in the order of $10 rriilHons The actual ~et cost to the Government of Canada of the Canal could therefore be negative

16

APPENDIX A

GENERAL DESCRIPTION AND LOCATIONl

Engineers have considered four routes for the Canal A route along the Missaguash River is thought to be the most advantageous as it would pass through marshland along four-fifths of its length and would present the smallest excavation problem It is about 16 miles long This route is illustrated in the inset map numbered 1

There is a shorter possible route from Moncton to Shediac Bay which would be between 12 and IS miles long As it runs over high ground however the amount of excavation needed would be at least three times the amount required for the Missaguash route (I)

The Canal will form a natural extension of the St Lawrence Ship Channel It should therefore be of at least the 27-foot depth of the St Lawrence Seaway Preliminary engineering reports indicate that a 35-foot depth which prevails up to Montreal will be practicable This is the more important as the average size of ocean-going ships is increasing In 1958 about half the available ocean-going tonnage required a depth of over 30 feet when fully loaded

If the ore and tanker trades are important even greater depth is reshyquired A depth of 40 feet can be considered minimum for large oreshycarriers Charts I to IV illustrate this diffetence and the tendency for the average size of ships to grow One source of confusion is the abundance of Liberty ships which are still in existence While these ~hips exist they are already becoming of uneconomical size (and of course age) On Noshyvember 1st 1958 over 400 Liberty ships were inactive

A depth of 35 feet will allow tankers up to 25000 tons dwt and other ships up to 20000 tons dwt with a maximum 32 foot draft to use the canal when fully loaded

The difference in tide levels between Cumberland Basin and Baie Verte makes at least one lock necessary The maximum tide range in Baie Verte is about 10 feet compared to 50 feet in Cumberland Basin while extreme tides at Cumberland Basin are about 20 feet lower or higher than at Baie Verte

The cost of a 35-foot deep canal with a width of 300 feet including the cost of one lock approach facilities to the canal one railroad crossing and two highway crossings but exclusive of land expropriation costs was estimated at approximately $90 millions by Foundation of Canada Enshy

1 Engineering information included in this section has been summarized from A Preliminary Engineering Report on the Chignecto Canal prepared by Foundation of Canada Engineering Corporation Limited (April 1959)

17

gineering Corporation Limited The plan together with the proposal to employ one lock is the result of close cooperation between the Corporation and LaSalle Hydraulic Laboratory It has been independently examined and approved by Professor P Danel President of Sogeah in France who is a leading world authority on hydraulics and we believe the system proshyposed in the report to be worthy of the most careful study before it is abandoned in favour of a two-lock system

With one lock at the Cumberland Basin entrance the canals water level will fluctuate from about 0 - 8 feet with the Baie Verte tides With two locks one at either end the canals water level can be kept constant at about I4 - 16 feet above low tide at Baie Verte One lock will naturally reduce the time of a ships passage through the canal will decrease mainshytenance costs and will enable ships with 36 foot drafts to pass through at high tide since the time of the passage which is zt-3 hours would be shorter than the time during which the water level in the canal will be higher than the 35 foot minimum One lock will also avoid the drainage problem which will be raised when the canal with its constant water level will cut across the Missaguash River These advantages of the one lock system outweigh the extra excavation which will be required to maintain the 35 foot depth at low tide

The lock chamber would be 800 feet long and 100 feet wide which is the minimum size required to handle large tankers freighters or carriers and tugs towing barges The time for the passage of a ship through the lock would not exceed 30 minutes

The lock will consist of a main chamber gates and filling system and approaches with mooring facilities on both sides A railway bridge will be located at the south end The chamber walls will be of concrete crib construction with the cribs 60 feet wide and 95 feet high filled with gravel or rock and provided with mooring facilities

The bottom of the chamber will be lined with a concrete slab conshytaining weep holes to release hydrostatic pressure under the lock

Estimates of the cost of the canal have been made on the basis of assumed ground elevations and assumed soil types Firmer estimates would require soil borings and finer mapping than has yet been done

It appears probable that the very large tidal power potential of the eastern portion of the Bay of Fundy will be economically devel~ped in the future This can be achieved without conflict with the construction and operation of the Canal If tidal power plants are built later in the Cumbershyland and Shepody Basins navigation would benefit from increased water depth in the Cumberland Basin

18

ENGINEERING ESTIMATES

The following excavation quantities are based upon assumed ground elevations

Canal

75500000 cu yd Dredging excavation

6500000 cu yd Rock excavation

2000000 cu yd Rock protection

Canal Approaches

13050000 cu yd Dredging-Cumberland Basin

12210000 cu yd Dredging-Baie Verte

Navigation Lock

825000 cu yd Earthwork including excavation backfill and pumping

155300 cu yd Concrete in lock chamber

37600 cu yd Concrete in 39 dolphins and bridging

2 sets of sector gates (94 x 100 opening) including equipment

28000 sq ft Sheet piling

Road Crossings

2 high level highway crossings

1 railway bridge (at lock)

Contingency 20

$30200000

13000000

8000000

4567500

4273500

1452000

3880000

1504000

4300000

84000

2600000

1100000

$51200000

8841000

11220000

3700000

$74961000

14992200

$89953200

APPENDIX B-1

Estimated Daily Running Expenses Under Free Flag-Ore Carriers amp General Cargo Ships

Total Carrying Personnel Capacity

(tOns) Officers I Crew

I ORE CARRIERS

20000 8 30

30000 8 30 N o 40000 8 32

50000 8 32

60000 8 35

GENERAL CARGO

7500 35 -e

10500 35

13500 35

Payroll $

25000

25000

27000

27000

30000

-

-

--- shy

(1) Includes certain insurance items

Victualing $

5000

5000

5500

5500

6000

--

--_

Stores $

(1956 Figures)

8000

8000

9000

9000

10000

(1958 Figures)

-

-

-

Repairs $

8000

8000

10000

12000

12000

-

-

Surveying $

3500

3500

4500

4500

5500

-

-

-

Manage ment

$

6500

6500

6500

6500

6500

--

-

Mise $

5000

5000

5000

5000

5000

-

-

-

Total Daily Running Expenses

$

61000

61000

67500

69500

75000

65000

65000(1)

80000(1)

APPENDIX Bmiddot2 Speed and fuel costs-per day

Ore Carriers and General Cargo Ships Under Free Flag

Carrying Price of FuelMiles Per Cost ofFuel TonsCapacity per ton Fuel per

I Per Day(tons) (Average) dayHour Day

ORE CARRIERS $ $

20000 (1) 120 25005 30 75000 (2 ) 15 360 2500 7500030 (3) 10- - 2500 25000

30000 (1 ) 120 2500 875005 35 (2 ) 360 2500 8750015 35 (3 ) - - 12 2500 30000

40000 (1) 120 10000040 25005 (2 ) 360 40 2500 10000015 (3) -- 250015 37500

50000 (1) 120 2500 1125005 45 (2 ) 11250015 360 45 2500 (3 ) - 18 2500 45000-

60000 (1 ) 5 120 2500 12500050 (2 ) 15 2500 125000360 50 (3 ) - 20 2500 50000-

GENERAL CARGO

7500 (1) 1205 15 2500 37500 (2 ) 15 360 250015 37500 (3) --- - -

10000 (1 ) 120 18 2500 450005 (2 ) 250015 360 18 45000 (3 ) - 7 2500 17500-

13500 (1) 1205 20 2500 ~OOOO (2 ) 15 360 20 2500 0000 (3 ) - - 10 2500 25000

(1) (2) (3)

Canal Sea Port

21

IV

THE IMPACT OF THE CANAL ON EXISTING SHIPPING

The impact which the Chignecto Canal will eventually have on shipping patterns is discussed in the second part of this section It is imshyportant to note first what savings may be effected in shipping costs with the present patterns of trade Three principal routes will be affected first between the Great Lakes and St Lawrence ports and those of the Bay of Fundy and the eastern seaboard of the United States second between ports on the Bay of Fundy and ports to the north especially other ports in the Atlantic Provinces and third particularly at those times of year when northern tracks are being used between ports on the Bay of Fundy and northern European ports

To a ship-owner a canal is useful only if it permits entry into an area otherwise inaccessible or if it permits the use of ships more economical than would be possible without it or if it shortens the time of a voyage The saving in distance brought about by the canal must be considered in relation to the slower speed in restricted waterways delay in locks and so forth For an initial approach however an estimate of the total traffic which would use the canal may be obtained by noting the total trade which was being carried on between points w~ich would use the canal in a given year The estimates which follow are based on ~he 1957 traffic pattern

Potential Chignecto Canal Traffic

(Short Tons)

Traffic St Lawrence Bay of fundy

to South to Northern Atlantic Ports

Total

Inbound Outbound

Total

2800000 4 00000

1800000 150 000

4600000 I 550 000

3200000

I950 000

5150 000

i

The estimate for St Lawrence to South Atlantic ports is based on information supplied by the Dominion Bureau of Statistics on the likely use of the Canal by ships plying this route Certain downward adjustments were made to reduce the total by the amounts which were destined for ports considered to lie too far to the east to use the Canal

The potential of 5150000 for the Chignecto is almost half that which in the same year 1957 on which these estimates were based the St Lawrence Canals carried (12200000 tons)

Since even at a depth of 35 feet the ore trade would tend to seek deeper routes approximately 7000000 tons of iron ore from the St Lawshyrence to United States ports were excluded from these calculations Some part of the shipping involved would likely use the Canal at least on the return voyage

The Bay of Fundy - Northern Ports traffic was estimated on a proportional basis First the proportion which total trade of the Bay of Fundy ports to other eastern Canadian ports bears to the total trade of all New Brunswick and Nova Scotia ports to other eastern Canadian ports was found This proportion of loadings and unloadings was then applied separately to the trade of New Brunswick and Nova Scotia to other provshyinces individually To estimate the trade of Bay of Fundy ports with other ports of Nova Scotia and New Brunswick one-half of the proportionate share was taken This amount was used since in each case about one-half the coast line would not use the canal

Attempts to estimate the precise savings in shipping costs are very difficult The best route between two points is not necessarily the most direct Local conditions along the route may make deviations necessary Shipments from various ports to each destination must be estimated since only aggregated traffic statistics are published Nevertheless it is possible to make computations which indicate the order of magnitude of the savings which would be accomplished After allowance for delays in the canals because of lockage and slow speed in the restricted channel an examination of the 1957 shipping figures indicates savings of approximately $500000

The basis of the calculations is set out in Appendix B

A more important aspect of the impact on shipping cannot be illustrated by examination of the trade pattern of past years That is the amount of shipping activity which would be generated by the existence of the Canal The distance between Atlantic Provinces ports by water would be cut in some cases by as much as 415 nautical miles The existence of this short route would in itself create an impetus to increased coastwise shipshyping The fact that two of these provinces are isolated by water of course lends emphasis to the use which must be made of ships

Again it is impossible to give numerical estimates of the coastwise shipping which would be generated There are however three reasons for believing that an increase will take place

Shipping trade already exists between ports north of and south of the Chignecto Isthmus Empirically it has been found that trade between closer points is greater than between more widely separated points Further this difference seems to be more closely related to the square of the difference than to the difference itself Thus halving the effective transportation route between the two points will tend to quadruple the trade between them

The Canal would make the Bay of Fundy a natural extension of the route from the Great Lakes to the ports of the Eastern United States and the Panama Canal

The fact of more frequent sailings between these ports would itself create more offerings of traffic as shippers became aware of the possibility of faster service

While it is not possible to make numerical calculations of the amount which might be saved in this trade there can be no doubt that the stimulashytion which the Canal will give to shipping in the area will expand the savings in transportation costs considerably

In addition to the traffic generated immediately there will in future years be a natural growth of trade The use of the St Lawrence Canal to give an example has been very closely related to general economic activity in Canada1 The tremendous rate of growth in Canadas economy has been sufficient to cause a doubling in real Gross National Product every fifteen years Even if we assumt a more modest rate of increase in the future it is clear that the use of the Canal will grow quickly once it is established Even so the savings in transportation costs estimated in this section would not in themselves be justification for constructing the Canal However it is obvious that since the new industry discussed in the previous section is predicated upon the existence of the Canal this new industry will be an important user of the Canal and will greatly expand its use

A new water route will be established which will permit the use of a different type of craft to those used in ocean travel It could be a lakershytype boat which could operate under a restricted international licence and with personnel certified for home trade and would be much less expensive to build and to operate than a normal ship New services could thus operate successfully in a Maritime area which is not now adequately served by sea transportation f

The result will be to revitalize the area economically

1 Tonnage carried through the Sf Lawrence Canal and Gross National Expenditure in constant 1949 dollars are very highly correlated for the eleven years 1947-1957 (r = 948)

IS

v TIMING OF THE CHIGNECTO CANAL PROJECT

It is obvious that the more quickly the Chignecto Canal is built the quicker benefits will flow from it If an immediate start is made final engineering examinationmiddot and specification will not be completed until 1961 The cost of the engineering study necessary before the final cost of construction can be confirmed has been put at $350000 by Foundation of Canada Engineering Corporation Limited It might be argued that a time when the Government of Canada and our financial institutions are preshyoccupied with fighting inflation is not a time to consider large expendishytures However the Atlantic Provinces as is well known suffer from what

might fairly be described as a permanent recession This project would be a most valuable addition to the governmental armoury of weapons to combat regional depression It has the following important advantages

It is sufficiently large that it will have a decided impact on the economy of the Maritime Provinces

It will create advantages of lasting benefit to the eastern part of Canada

Should this project be undertaken as part of a programme to combat regional depression the cost to Canada will be less than the expenditures on it These expenditures will be offSet in part by expenditures which w0ud otherwise be made for unemployment insurance am might make it possible to reduce certain other subsidies In fact since the effect is multiplied this saving will be more than the direct replacement of wages for unemployment insurance In addition some part of the cost will be reshycovered as corporate and personal income taxes which would not otherwise be due The calculations of Section III would indicate that corporate income taxes from new industry resulting from the Canal would be in the order of $10 rriilHons The actual ~et cost to the Government of Canada of the Canal could therefore be negative

16

APPENDIX A

GENERAL DESCRIPTION AND LOCATIONl

Engineers have considered four routes for the Canal A route along the Missaguash River is thought to be the most advantageous as it would pass through marshland along four-fifths of its length and would present the smallest excavation problem It is about 16 miles long This route is illustrated in the inset map numbered 1

There is a shorter possible route from Moncton to Shediac Bay which would be between 12 and IS miles long As it runs over high ground however the amount of excavation needed would be at least three times the amount required for the Missaguash route (I)

The Canal will form a natural extension of the St Lawrence Ship Channel It should therefore be of at least the 27-foot depth of the St Lawrence Seaway Preliminary engineering reports indicate that a 35-foot depth which prevails up to Montreal will be practicable This is the more important as the average size of ocean-going ships is increasing In 1958 about half the available ocean-going tonnage required a depth of over 30 feet when fully loaded

If the ore and tanker trades are important even greater depth is reshyquired A depth of 40 feet can be considered minimum for large oreshycarriers Charts I to IV illustrate this diffetence and the tendency for the average size of ships to grow One source of confusion is the abundance of Liberty ships which are still in existence While these ~hips exist they are already becoming of uneconomical size (and of course age) On Noshyvember 1st 1958 over 400 Liberty ships were inactive

A depth of 35 feet will allow tankers up to 25000 tons dwt and other ships up to 20000 tons dwt with a maximum 32 foot draft to use the canal when fully loaded

The difference in tide levels between Cumberland Basin and Baie Verte makes at least one lock necessary The maximum tide range in Baie Verte is about 10 feet compared to 50 feet in Cumberland Basin while extreme tides at Cumberland Basin are about 20 feet lower or higher than at Baie Verte

The cost of a 35-foot deep canal with a width of 300 feet including the cost of one lock approach facilities to the canal one railroad crossing and two highway crossings but exclusive of land expropriation costs was estimated at approximately $90 millions by Foundation of Canada Enshy

1 Engineering information included in this section has been summarized from A Preliminary Engineering Report on the Chignecto Canal prepared by Foundation of Canada Engineering Corporation Limited (April 1959)

17

gineering Corporation Limited The plan together with the proposal to employ one lock is the result of close cooperation between the Corporation and LaSalle Hydraulic Laboratory It has been independently examined and approved by Professor P Danel President of Sogeah in France who is a leading world authority on hydraulics and we believe the system proshyposed in the report to be worthy of the most careful study before it is abandoned in favour of a two-lock system

With one lock at the Cumberland Basin entrance the canals water level will fluctuate from about 0 - 8 feet with the Baie Verte tides With two locks one at either end the canals water level can be kept constant at about I4 - 16 feet above low tide at Baie Verte One lock will naturally reduce the time of a ships passage through the canal will decrease mainshytenance costs and will enable ships with 36 foot drafts to pass through at high tide since the time of the passage which is zt-3 hours would be shorter than the time during which the water level in the canal will be higher than the 35 foot minimum One lock will also avoid the drainage problem which will be raised when the canal with its constant water level will cut across the Missaguash River These advantages of the one lock system outweigh the extra excavation which will be required to maintain the 35 foot depth at low tide

The lock chamber would be 800 feet long and 100 feet wide which is the minimum size required to handle large tankers freighters or carriers and tugs towing barges The time for the passage of a ship through the lock would not exceed 30 minutes

The lock will consist of a main chamber gates and filling system and approaches with mooring facilities on both sides A railway bridge will be located at the south end The chamber walls will be of concrete crib construction with the cribs 60 feet wide and 95 feet high filled with gravel or rock and provided with mooring facilities

The bottom of the chamber will be lined with a concrete slab conshytaining weep holes to release hydrostatic pressure under the lock

Estimates of the cost of the canal have been made on the basis of assumed ground elevations and assumed soil types Firmer estimates would require soil borings and finer mapping than has yet been done

It appears probable that the very large tidal power potential of the eastern portion of the Bay of Fundy will be economically devel~ped in the future This can be achieved without conflict with the construction and operation of the Canal If tidal power plants are built later in the Cumbershyland and Shepody Basins navigation would benefit from increased water depth in the Cumberland Basin

18

ENGINEERING ESTIMATES

The following excavation quantities are based upon assumed ground elevations

Canal

75500000 cu yd Dredging excavation

6500000 cu yd Rock excavation

2000000 cu yd Rock protection

Canal Approaches

13050000 cu yd Dredging-Cumberland Basin

12210000 cu yd Dredging-Baie Verte

Navigation Lock

825000 cu yd Earthwork including excavation backfill and pumping

155300 cu yd Concrete in lock chamber

37600 cu yd Concrete in 39 dolphins and bridging

2 sets of sector gates (94 x 100 opening) including equipment

28000 sq ft Sheet piling

Road Crossings

2 high level highway crossings

1 railway bridge (at lock)

Contingency 20

$30200000

13000000

8000000

4567500

4273500

1452000

3880000

1504000

4300000

84000

2600000

1100000

$51200000

8841000

11220000

3700000

$74961000

14992200

$89953200

APPENDIX B-1

Estimated Daily Running Expenses Under Free Flag-Ore Carriers amp General Cargo Ships

Total Carrying Personnel Capacity

(tOns) Officers I Crew

I ORE CARRIERS

20000 8 30

30000 8 30 N o 40000 8 32

50000 8 32

60000 8 35

GENERAL CARGO

7500 35 -e

10500 35

13500 35

Payroll $

25000

25000

27000

27000

30000

-

-

--- shy

(1) Includes certain insurance items

Victualing $

5000

5000

5500

5500

6000

--

--_

Stores $

(1956 Figures)

8000

8000

9000

9000

10000

(1958 Figures)

-

-

-

Repairs $

8000

8000

10000

12000

12000

-

-

Surveying $

3500

3500

4500

4500

5500

-

-

-

Manage ment

$

6500

6500

6500

6500

6500

--

-

Mise $

5000

5000

5000

5000

5000

-

-

-

Total Daily Running Expenses

$

61000

61000

67500

69500

75000

65000

65000(1)

80000(1)

APPENDIX Bmiddot2 Speed and fuel costs-per day

Ore Carriers and General Cargo Ships Under Free Flag

Carrying Price of FuelMiles Per Cost ofFuel TonsCapacity per ton Fuel per

I Per Day(tons) (Average) dayHour Day

ORE CARRIERS $ $

20000 (1) 120 25005 30 75000 (2 ) 15 360 2500 7500030 (3) 10- - 2500 25000

30000 (1 ) 120 2500 875005 35 (2 ) 360 2500 8750015 35 (3 ) - - 12 2500 30000

40000 (1) 120 10000040 25005 (2 ) 360 40 2500 10000015 (3) -- 250015 37500

50000 (1) 120 2500 1125005 45 (2 ) 11250015 360 45 2500 (3 ) - 18 2500 45000-

60000 (1 ) 5 120 2500 12500050 (2 ) 15 2500 125000360 50 (3 ) - 20 2500 50000-

GENERAL CARGO

7500 (1) 1205 15 2500 37500 (2 ) 15 360 250015 37500 (3) --- - -

10000 (1 ) 120 18 2500 450005 (2 ) 250015 360 18 45000 (3 ) - 7 2500 17500-

13500 (1) 1205 20 2500 ~OOOO (2 ) 15 360 20 2500 0000 (3 ) - - 10 2500 25000

(1) (2) (3)

Canal Sea Port

21

The potential of 5150000 for the Chignecto is almost half that which in the same year 1957 on which these estimates were based the St Lawrence Canals carried (12200000 tons)

Since even at a depth of 35 feet the ore trade would tend to seek deeper routes approximately 7000000 tons of iron ore from the St Lawshyrence to United States ports were excluded from these calculations Some part of the shipping involved would likely use the Canal at least on the return voyage

The Bay of Fundy - Northern Ports traffic was estimated on a proportional basis First the proportion which total trade of the Bay of Fundy ports to other eastern Canadian ports bears to the total trade of all New Brunswick and Nova Scotia ports to other eastern Canadian ports was found This proportion of loadings and unloadings was then applied separately to the trade of New Brunswick and Nova Scotia to other provshyinces individually To estimate the trade of Bay of Fundy ports with other ports of Nova Scotia and New Brunswick one-half of the proportionate share was taken This amount was used since in each case about one-half the coast line would not use the canal

Attempts to estimate the precise savings in shipping costs are very difficult The best route between two points is not necessarily the most direct Local conditions along the route may make deviations necessary Shipments from various ports to each destination must be estimated since only aggregated traffic statistics are published Nevertheless it is possible to make computations which indicate the order of magnitude of the savings which would be accomplished After allowance for delays in the canals because of lockage and slow speed in the restricted channel an examination of the 1957 shipping figures indicates savings of approximately $500000

The basis of the calculations is set out in Appendix B

A more important aspect of the impact on shipping cannot be illustrated by examination of the trade pattern of past years That is the amount of shipping activity which would be generated by the existence of the Canal The distance between Atlantic Provinces ports by water would be cut in some cases by as much as 415 nautical miles The existence of this short route would in itself create an impetus to increased coastwise shipshyping The fact that two of these provinces are isolated by water of course lends emphasis to the use which must be made of ships

Again it is impossible to give numerical estimates of the coastwise shipping which would be generated There are however three reasons for believing that an increase will take place

Shipping trade already exists between ports north of and south of the Chignecto Isthmus Empirically it has been found that trade between closer points is greater than between more widely separated points Further this difference seems to be more closely related to the square of the difference than to the difference itself Thus halving the effective transportation route between the two points will tend to quadruple the trade between them

The Canal would make the Bay of Fundy a natural extension of the route from the Great Lakes to the ports of the Eastern United States and the Panama Canal

The fact of more frequent sailings between these ports would itself create more offerings of traffic as shippers became aware of the possibility of faster service

While it is not possible to make numerical calculations of the amount which might be saved in this trade there can be no doubt that the stimulashytion which the Canal will give to shipping in the area will expand the savings in transportation costs considerably

In addition to the traffic generated immediately there will in future years be a natural growth of trade The use of the St Lawrence Canal to give an example has been very closely related to general economic activity in Canada1 The tremendous rate of growth in Canadas economy has been sufficient to cause a doubling in real Gross National Product every fifteen years Even if we assumt a more modest rate of increase in the future it is clear that the use of the Canal will grow quickly once it is established Even so the savings in transportation costs estimated in this section would not in themselves be justification for constructing the Canal However it is obvious that since the new industry discussed in the previous section is predicated upon the existence of the Canal this new industry will be an important user of the Canal and will greatly expand its use

A new water route will be established which will permit the use of a different type of craft to those used in ocean travel It could be a lakershytype boat which could operate under a restricted international licence and with personnel certified for home trade and would be much less expensive to build and to operate than a normal ship New services could thus operate successfully in a Maritime area which is not now adequately served by sea transportation f

The result will be to revitalize the area economically

1 Tonnage carried through the Sf Lawrence Canal and Gross National Expenditure in constant 1949 dollars are very highly correlated for the eleven years 1947-1957 (r = 948)

IS

v TIMING OF THE CHIGNECTO CANAL PROJECT

It is obvious that the more quickly the Chignecto Canal is built the quicker benefits will flow from it If an immediate start is made final engineering examinationmiddot and specification will not be completed until 1961 The cost of the engineering study necessary before the final cost of construction can be confirmed has been put at $350000 by Foundation of Canada Engineering Corporation Limited It might be argued that a time when the Government of Canada and our financial institutions are preshyoccupied with fighting inflation is not a time to consider large expendishytures However the Atlantic Provinces as is well known suffer from what

might fairly be described as a permanent recession This project would be a most valuable addition to the governmental armoury of weapons to combat regional depression It has the following important advantages

It is sufficiently large that it will have a decided impact on the economy of the Maritime Provinces

It will create advantages of lasting benefit to the eastern part of Canada

Should this project be undertaken as part of a programme to combat regional depression the cost to Canada will be less than the expenditures on it These expenditures will be offSet in part by expenditures which w0ud otherwise be made for unemployment insurance am might make it possible to reduce certain other subsidies In fact since the effect is multiplied this saving will be more than the direct replacement of wages for unemployment insurance In addition some part of the cost will be reshycovered as corporate and personal income taxes which would not otherwise be due The calculations of Section III would indicate that corporate income taxes from new industry resulting from the Canal would be in the order of $10 rriilHons The actual ~et cost to the Government of Canada of the Canal could therefore be negative

16

APPENDIX A

GENERAL DESCRIPTION AND LOCATIONl

Engineers have considered four routes for the Canal A route along the Missaguash River is thought to be the most advantageous as it would pass through marshland along four-fifths of its length and would present the smallest excavation problem It is about 16 miles long This route is illustrated in the inset map numbered 1

There is a shorter possible route from Moncton to Shediac Bay which would be between 12 and IS miles long As it runs over high ground however the amount of excavation needed would be at least three times the amount required for the Missaguash route (I)

The Canal will form a natural extension of the St Lawrence Ship Channel It should therefore be of at least the 27-foot depth of the St Lawrence Seaway Preliminary engineering reports indicate that a 35-foot depth which prevails up to Montreal will be practicable This is the more important as the average size of ocean-going ships is increasing In 1958 about half the available ocean-going tonnage required a depth of over 30 feet when fully loaded

If the ore and tanker trades are important even greater depth is reshyquired A depth of 40 feet can be considered minimum for large oreshycarriers Charts I to IV illustrate this diffetence and the tendency for the average size of ships to grow One source of confusion is the abundance of Liberty ships which are still in existence While these ~hips exist they are already becoming of uneconomical size (and of course age) On Noshyvember 1st 1958 over 400 Liberty ships were inactive

A depth of 35 feet will allow tankers up to 25000 tons dwt and other ships up to 20000 tons dwt with a maximum 32 foot draft to use the canal when fully loaded

The difference in tide levels between Cumberland Basin and Baie Verte makes at least one lock necessary The maximum tide range in Baie Verte is about 10 feet compared to 50 feet in Cumberland Basin while extreme tides at Cumberland Basin are about 20 feet lower or higher than at Baie Verte

The cost of a 35-foot deep canal with a width of 300 feet including the cost of one lock approach facilities to the canal one railroad crossing and two highway crossings but exclusive of land expropriation costs was estimated at approximately $90 millions by Foundation of Canada Enshy

1 Engineering information included in this section has been summarized from A Preliminary Engineering Report on the Chignecto Canal prepared by Foundation of Canada Engineering Corporation Limited (April 1959)

17

gineering Corporation Limited The plan together with the proposal to employ one lock is the result of close cooperation between the Corporation and LaSalle Hydraulic Laboratory It has been independently examined and approved by Professor P Danel President of Sogeah in France who is a leading world authority on hydraulics and we believe the system proshyposed in the report to be worthy of the most careful study before it is abandoned in favour of a two-lock system

With one lock at the Cumberland Basin entrance the canals water level will fluctuate from about 0 - 8 feet with the Baie Verte tides With two locks one at either end the canals water level can be kept constant at about I4 - 16 feet above low tide at Baie Verte One lock will naturally reduce the time of a ships passage through the canal will decrease mainshytenance costs and will enable ships with 36 foot drafts to pass through at high tide since the time of the passage which is zt-3 hours would be shorter than the time during which the water level in the canal will be higher than the 35 foot minimum One lock will also avoid the drainage problem which will be raised when the canal with its constant water level will cut across the Missaguash River These advantages of the one lock system outweigh the extra excavation which will be required to maintain the 35 foot depth at low tide

The lock chamber would be 800 feet long and 100 feet wide which is the minimum size required to handle large tankers freighters or carriers and tugs towing barges The time for the passage of a ship through the lock would not exceed 30 minutes

The lock will consist of a main chamber gates and filling system and approaches with mooring facilities on both sides A railway bridge will be located at the south end The chamber walls will be of concrete crib construction with the cribs 60 feet wide and 95 feet high filled with gravel or rock and provided with mooring facilities

The bottom of the chamber will be lined with a concrete slab conshytaining weep holes to release hydrostatic pressure under the lock

Estimates of the cost of the canal have been made on the basis of assumed ground elevations and assumed soil types Firmer estimates would require soil borings and finer mapping than has yet been done

It appears probable that the very large tidal power potential of the eastern portion of the Bay of Fundy will be economically devel~ped in the future This can be achieved without conflict with the construction and operation of the Canal If tidal power plants are built later in the Cumbershyland and Shepody Basins navigation would benefit from increased water depth in the Cumberland Basin

18

ENGINEERING ESTIMATES

The following excavation quantities are based upon assumed ground elevations

Canal

75500000 cu yd Dredging excavation

6500000 cu yd Rock excavation

2000000 cu yd Rock protection

Canal Approaches

13050000 cu yd Dredging-Cumberland Basin

12210000 cu yd Dredging-Baie Verte

Navigation Lock

825000 cu yd Earthwork including excavation backfill and pumping

155300 cu yd Concrete in lock chamber

37600 cu yd Concrete in 39 dolphins and bridging

2 sets of sector gates (94 x 100 opening) including equipment

28000 sq ft Sheet piling

Road Crossings

2 high level highway crossings

1 railway bridge (at lock)

Contingency 20

$30200000

13000000

8000000

4567500

4273500

1452000

3880000

1504000

4300000

84000

2600000

1100000

$51200000

8841000

11220000

3700000

$74961000

14992200

$89953200

APPENDIX B-1

Estimated Daily Running Expenses Under Free Flag-Ore Carriers amp General Cargo Ships

Total Carrying Personnel Capacity

(tOns) Officers I Crew

I ORE CARRIERS

20000 8 30

30000 8 30 N o 40000 8 32

50000 8 32

60000 8 35

GENERAL CARGO

7500 35 -e

10500 35

13500 35

Payroll $

25000

25000

27000

27000

30000

-

-

--- shy

(1) Includes certain insurance items

Victualing $

5000

5000

5500

5500

6000

--

--_

Stores $

(1956 Figures)

8000

8000

9000

9000

10000

(1958 Figures)

-

-

-

Repairs $

8000

8000

10000

12000

12000

-

-

Surveying $

3500

3500

4500

4500

5500

-

-

-

Manage ment

$

6500

6500

6500

6500

6500

--

-

Mise $

5000

5000

5000

5000

5000

-

-

-

Total Daily Running Expenses

$

61000

61000

67500

69500

75000

65000

65000(1)

80000(1)

APPENDIX Bmiddot2 Speed and fuel costs-per day

Ore Carriers and General Cargo Ships Under Free Flag

Carrying Price of FuelMiles Per Cost ofFuel TonsCapacity per ton Fuel per

I Per Day(tons) (Average) dayHour Day

ORE CARRIERS $ $

20000 (1) 120 25005 30 75000 (2 ) 15 360 2500 7500030 (3) 10- - 2500 25000

30000 (1 ) 120 2500 875005 35 (2 ) 360 2500 8750015 35 (3 ) - - 12 2500 30000

40000 (1) 120 10000040 25005 (2 ) 360 40 2500 10000015 (3) -- 250015 37500

50000 (1) 120 2500 1125005 45 (2 ) 11250015 360 45 2500 (3 ) - 18 2500 45000-

60000 (1 ) 5 120 2500 12500050 (2 ) 15 2500 125000360 50 (3 ) - 20 2500 50000-

GENERAL CARGO

7500 (1) 1205 15 2500 37500 (2 ) 15 360 250015 37500 (3) --- - -

10000 (1 ) 120 18 2500 450005 (2 ) 250015 360 18 45000 (3 ) - 7 2500 17500-

13500 (1) 1205 20 2500 ~OOOO (2 ) 15 360 20 2500 0000 (3 ) - - 10 2500 25000

(1) (2) (3)

Canal Sea Port

21

Shipping trade already exists between ports north of and south of the Chignecto Isthmus Empirically it has been found that trade between closer points is greater than between more widely separated points Further this difference seems to be more closely related to the square of the difference than to the difference itself Thus halving the effective transportation route between the two points will tend to quadruple the trade between them

The Canal would make the Bay of Fundy a natural extension of the route from the Great Lakes to the ports of the Eastern United States and the Panama Canal

The fact of more frequent sailings between these ports would itself create more offerings of traffic as shippers became aware of the possibility of faster service

While it is not possible to make numerical calculations of the amount which might be saved in this trade there can be no doubt that the stimulashytion which the Canal will give to shipping in the area will expand the savings in transportation costs considerably

In addition to the traffic generated immediately there will in future years be a natural growth of trade The use of the St Lawrence Canal to give an example has been very closely related to general economic activity in Canada1 The tremendous rate of growth in Canadas economy has been sufficient to cause a doubling in real Gross National Product every fifteen years Even if we assumt a more modest rate of increase in the future it is clear that the use of the Canal will grow quickly once it is established Even so the savings in transportation costs estimated in this section would not in themselves be justification for constructing the Canal However it is obvious that since the new industry discussed in the previous section is predicated upon the existence of the Canal this new industry will be an important user of the Canal and will greatly expand its use

A new water route will be established which will permit the use of a different type of craft to those used in ocean travel It could be a lakershytype boat which could operate under a restricted international licence and with personnel certified for home trade and would be much less expensive to build and to operate than a normal ship New services could thus operate successfully in a Maritime area which is not now adequately served by sea transportation f

The result will be to revitalize the area economically

1 Tonnage carried through the Sf Lawrence Canal and Gross National Expenditure in constant 1949 dollars are very highly correlated for the eleven years 1947-1957 (r = 948)

IS

v TIMING OF THE CHIGNECTO CANAL PROJECT

It is obvious that the more quickly the Chignecto Canal is built the quicker benefits will flow from it If an immediate start is made final engineering examinationmiddot and specification will not be completed until 1961 The cost of the engineering study necessary before the final cost of construction can be confirmed has been put at $350000 by Foundation of Canada Engineering Corporation Limited It might be argued that a time when the Government of Canada and our financial institutions are preshyoccupied with fighting inflation is not a time to consider large expendishytures However the Atlantic Provinces as is well known suffer from what

might fairly be described as a permanent recession This project would be a most valuable addition to the governmental armoury of weapons to combat regional depression It has the following important advantages

It is sufficiently large that it will have a decided impact on the economy of the Maritime Provinces

It will create advantages of lasting benefit to the eastern part of Canada

Should this project be undertaken as part of a programme to combat regional depression the cost to Canada will be less than the expenditures on it These expenditures will be offSet in part by expenditures which w0ud otherwise be made for unemployment insurance am might make it possible to reduce certain other subsidies In fact since the effect is multiplied this saving will be more than the direct replacement of wages for unemployment insurance In addition some part of the cost will be reshycovered as corporate and personal income taxes which would not otherwise be due The calculations of Section III would indicate that corporate income taxes from new industry resulting from the Canal would be in the order of $10 rriilHons The actual ~et cost to the Government of Canada of the Canal could therefore be negative

16

APPENDIX A

GENERAL DESCRIPTION AND LOCATIONl

Engineers have considered four routes for the Canal A route along the Missaguash River is thought to be the most advantageous as it would pass through marshland along four-fifths of its length and would present the smallest excavation problem It is about 16 miles long This route is illustrated in the inset map numbered 1

There is a shorter possible route from Moncton to Shediac Bay which would be between 12 and IS miles long As it runs over high ground however the amount of excavation needed would be at least three times the amount required for the Missaguash route (I)

The Canal will form a natural extension of the St Lawrence Ship Channel It should therefore be of at least the 27-foot depth of the St Lawrence Seaway Preliminary engineering reports indicate that a 35-foot depth which prevails up to Montreal will be practicable This is the more important as the average size of ocean-going ships is increasing In 1958 about half the available ocean-going tonnage required a depth of over 30 feet when fully loaded

If the ore and tanker trades are important even greater depth is reshyquired A depth of 40 feet can be considered minimum for large oreshycarriers Charts I to IV illustrate this diffetence and the tendency for the average size of ships to grow One source of confusion is the abundance of Liberty ships which are still in existence While these ~hips exist they are already becoming of uneconomical size (and of course age) On Noshyvember 1st 1958 over 400 Liberty ships were inactive

A depth of 35 feet will allow tankers up to 25000 tons dwt and other ships up to 20000 tons dwt with a maximum 32 foot draft to use the canal when fully loaded

The difference in tide levels between Cumberland Basin and Baie Verte makes at least one lock necessary The maximum tide range in Baie Verte is about 10 feet compared to 50 feet in Cumberland Basin while extreme tides at Cumberland Basin are about 20 feet lower or higher than at Baie Verte

The cost of a 35-foot deep canal with a width of 300 feet including the cost of one lock approach facilities to the canal one railroad crossing and two highway crossings but exclusive of land expropriation costs was estimated at approximately $90 millions by Foundation of Canada Enshy

1 Engineering information included in this section has been summarized from A Preliminary Engineering Report on the Chignecto Canal prepared by Foundation of Canada Engineering Corporation Limited (April 1959)

17

gineering Corporation Limited The plan together with the proposal to employ one lock is the result of close cooperation between the Corporation and LaSalle Hydraulic Laboratory It has been independently examined and approved by Professor P Danel President of Sogeah in France who is a leading world authority on hydraulics and we believe the system proshyposed in the report to be worthy of the most careful study before it is abandoned in favour of a two-lock system

With one lock at the Cumberland Basin entrance the canals water level will fluctuate from about 0 - 8 feet with the Baie Verte tides With two locks one at either end the canals water level can be kept constant at about I4 - 16 feet above low tide at Baie Verte One lock will naturally reduce the time of a ships passage through the canal will decrease mainshytenance costs and will enable ships with 36 foot drafts to pass through at high tide since the time of the passage which is zt-3 hours would be shorter than the time during which the water level in the canal will be higher than the 35 foot minimum One lock will also avoid the drainage problem which will be raised when the canal with its constant water level will cut across the Missaguash River These advantages of the one lock system outweigh the extra excavation which will be required to maintain the 35 foot depth at low tide

The lock chamber would be 800 feet long and 100 feet wide which is the minimum size required to handle large tankers freighters or carriers and tugs towing barges The time for the passage of a ship through the lock would not exceed 30 minutes

The lock will consist of a main chamber gates and filling system and approaches with mooring facilities on both sides A railway bridge will be located at the south end The chamber walls will be of concrete crib construction with the cribs 60 feet wide and 95 feet high filled with gravel or rock and provided with mooring facilities

The bottom of the chamber will be lined with a concrete slab conshytaining weep holes to release hydrostatic pressure under the lock

Estimates of the cost of the canal have been made on the basis of assumed ground elevations and assumed soil types Firmer estimates would require soil borings and finer mapping than has yet been done

It appears probable that the very large tidal power potential of the eastern portion of the Bay of Fundy will be economically devel~ped in the future This can be achieved without conflict with the construction and operation of the Canal If tidal power plants are built later in the Cumbershyland and Shepody Basins navigation would benefit from increased water depth in the Cumberland Basin

18

ENGINEERING ESTIMATES

The following excavation quantities are based upon assumed ground elevations

Canal

75500000 cu yd Dredging excavation

6500000 cu yd Rock excavation

2000000 cu yd Rock protection

Canal Approaches

13050000 cu yd Dredging-Cumberland Basin

12210000 cu yd Dredging-Baie Verte

Navigation Lock

825000 cu yd Earthwork including excavation backfill and pumping

155300 cu yd Concrete in lock chamber

37600 cu yd Concrete in 39 dolphins and bridging

2 sets of sector gates (94 x 100 opening) including equipment

28000 sq ft Sheet piling

Road Crossings

2 high level highway crossings

1 railway bridge (at lock)

Contingency 20

$30200000

13000000

8000000

4567500

4273500

1452000

3880000

1504000

4300000

84000

2600000

1100000

$51200000

8841000

11220000

3700000

$74961000

14992200

$89953200

APPENDIX B-1

Estimated Daily Running Expenses Under Free Flag-Ore Carriers amp General Cargo Ships

Total Carrying Personnel Capacity

(tOns) Officers I Crew

I ORE CARRIERS

20000 8 30

30000 8 30 N o 40000 8 32

50000 8 32

60000 8 35

GENERAL CARGO

7500 35 -e

10500 35

13500 35

Payroll $

25000

25000

27000

27000

30000

-

-

--- shy

(1) Includes certain insurance items

Victualing $

5000

5000

5500

5500

6000

--

--_

Stores $

(1956 Figures)

8000

8000

9000

9000

10000

(1958 Figures)

-

-

-

Repairs $

8000

8000

10000

12000

12000

-

-

Surveying $

3500

3500

4500

4500

5500

-

-

-

Manage ment

$

6500

6500

6500

6500

6500

--

-

Mise $

5000

5000

5000

5000

5000

-

-

-

Total Daily Running Expenses

$

61000

61000

67500

69500

75000

65000

65000(1)

80000(1)

APPENDIX Bmiddot2 Speed and fuel costs-per day

Ore Carriers and General Cargo Ships Under Free Flag

Carrying Price of FuelMiles Per Cost ofFuel TonsCapacity per ton Fuel per

I Per Day(tons) (Average) dayHour Day

ORE CARRIERS $ $

20000 (1) 120 25005 30 75000 (2 ) 15 360 2500 7500030 (3) 10- - 2500 25000

30000 (1 ) 120 2500 875005 35 (2 ) 360 2500 8750015 35 (3 ) - - 12 2500 30000

40000 (1) 120 10000040 25005 (2 ) 360 40 2500 10000015 (3) -- 250015 37500

50000 (1) 120 2500 1125005 45 (2 ) 11250015 360 45 2500 (3 ) - 18 2500 45000-

60000 (1 ) 5 120 2500 12500050 (2 ) 15 2500 125000360 50 (3 ) - 20 2500 50000-

GENERAL CARGO

7500 (1) 1205 15 2500 37500 (2 ) 15 360 250015 37500 (3) --- - -

10000 (1 ) 120 18 2500 450005 (2 ) 250015 360 18 45000 (3 ) - 7 2500 17500-

13500 (1) 1205 20 2500 ~OOOO (2 ) 15 360 20 2500 0000 (3 ) - - 10 2500 25000

(1) (2) (3)

Canal Sea Port

21

v TIMING OF THE CHIGNECTO CANAL PROJECT

It is obvious that the more quickly the Chignecto Canal is built the quicker benefits will flow from it If an immediate start is made final engineering examinationmiddot and specification will not be completed until 1961 The cost of the engineering study necessary before the final cost of construction can be confirmed has been put at $350000 by Foundation of Canada Engineering Corporation Limited It might be argued that a time when the Government of Canada and our financial institutions are preshyoccupied with fighting inflation is not a time to consider large expendishytures However the Atlantic Provinces as is well known suffer from what

might fairly be described as a permanent recession This project would be a most valuable addition to the governmental armoury of weapons to combat regional depression It has the following important advantages

It is sufficiently large that it will have a decided impact on the economy of the Maritime Provinces

It will create advantages of lasting benefit to the eastern part of Canada

Should this project be undertaken as part of a programme to combat regional depression the cost to Canada will be less than the expenditures on it These expenditures will be offSet in part by expenditures which w0ud otherwise be made for unemployment insurance am might make it possible to reduce certain other subsidies In fact since the effect is multiplied this saving will be more than the direct replacement of wages for unemployment insurance In addition some part of the cost will be reshycovered as corporate and personal income taxes which would not otherwise be due The calculations of Section III would indicate that corporate income taxes from new industry resulting from the Canal would be in the order of $10 rriilHons The actual ~et cost to the Government of Canada of the Canal could therefore be negative

16

APPENDIX A

GENERAL DESCRIPTION AND LOCATIONl

Engineers have considered four routes for the Canal A route along the Missaguash River is thought to be the most advantageous as it would pass through marshland along four-fifths of its length and would present the smallest excavation problem It is about 16 miles long This route is illustrated in the inset map numbered 1

There is a shorter possible route from Moncton to Shediac Bay which would be between 12 and IS miles long As it runs over high ground however the amount of excavation needed would be at least three times the amount required for the Missaguash route (I)

The Canal will form a natural extension of the St Lawrence Ship Channel It should therefore be of at least the 27-foot depth of the St Lawrence Seaway Preliminary engineering reports indicate that a 35-foot depth which prevails up to Montreal will be practicable This is the more important as the average size of ocean-going ships is increasing In 1958 about half the available ocean-going tonnage required a depth of over 30 feet when fully loaded

If the ore and tanker trades are important even greater depth is reshyquired A depth of 40 feet can be considered minimum for large oreshycarriers Charts I to IV illustrate this diffetence and the tendency for the average size of ships to grow One source of confusion is the abundance of Liberty ships which are still in existence While these ~hips exist they are already becoming of uneconomical size (and of course age) On Noshyvember 1st 1958 over 400 Liberty ships were inactive

A depth of 35 feet will allow tankers up to 25000 tons dwt and other ships up to 20000 tons dwt with a maximum 32 foot draft to use the canal when fully loaded

The difference in tide levels between Cumberland Basin and Baie Verte makes at least one lock necessary The maximum tide range in Baie Verte is about 10 feet compared to 50 feet in Cumberland Basin while extreme tides at Cumberland Basin are about 20 feet lower or higher than at Baie Verte

The cost of a 35-foot deep canal with a width of 300 feet including the cost of one lock approach facilities to the canal one railroad crossing and two highway crossings but exclusive of land expropriation costs was estimated at approximately $90 millions by Foundation of Canada Enshy

1 Engineering information included in this section has been summarized from A Preliminary Engineering Report on the Chignecto Canal prepared by Foundation of Canada Engineering Corporation Limited (April 1959)

17

gineering Corporation Limited The plan together with the proposal to employ one lock is the result of close cooperation between the Corporation and LaSalle Hydraulic Laboratory It has been independently examined and approved by Professor P Danel President of Sogeah in France who is a leading world authority on hydraulics and we believe the system proshyposed in the report to be worthy of the most careful study before it is abandoned in favour of a two-lock system

With one lock at the Cumberland Basin entrance the canals water level will fluctuate from about 0 - 8 feet with the Baie Verte tides With two locks one at either end the canals water level can be kept constant at about I4 - 16 feet above low tide at Baie Verte One lock will naturally reduce the time of a ships passage through the canal will decrease mainshytenance costs and will enable ships with 36 foot drafts to pass through at high tide since the time of the passage which is zt-3 hours would be shorter than the time during which the water level in the canal will be higher than the 35 foot minimum One lock will also avoid the drainage problem which will be raised when the canal with its constant water level will cut across the Missaguash River These advantages of the one lock system outweigh the extra excavation which will be required to maintain the 35 foot depth at low tide

The lock chamber would be 800 feet long and 100 feet wide which is the minimum size required to handle large tankers freighters or carriers and tugs towing barges The time for the passage of a ship through the lock would not exceed 30 minutes

The lock will consist of a main chamber gates and filling system and approaches with mooring facilities on both sides A railway bridge will be located at the south end The chamber walls will be of concrete crib construction with the cribs 60 feet wide and 95 feet high filled with gravel or rock and provided with mooring facilities

The bottom of the chamber will be lined with a concrete slab conshytaining weep holes to release hydrostatic pressure under the lock

Estimates of the cost of the canal have been made on the basis of assumed ground elevations and assumed soil types Firmer estimates would require soil borings and finer mapping than has yet been done

It appears probable that the very large tidal power potential of the eastern portion of the Bay of Fundy will be economically devel~ped in the future This can be achieved without conflict with the construction and operation of the Canal If tidal power plants are built later in the Cumbershyland and Shepody Basins navigation would benefit from increased water depth in the Cumberland Basin

18

ENGINEERING ESTIMATES

The following excavation quantities are based upon assumed ground elevations

Canal

75500000 cu yd Dredging excavation

6500000 cu yd Rock excavation

2000000 cu yd Rock protection

Canal Approaches

13050000 cu yd Dredging-Cumberland Basin

12210000 cu yd Dredging-Baie Verte

Navigation Lock

825000 cu yd Earthwork including excavation backfill and pumping

155300 cu yd Concrete in lock chamber

37600 cu yd Concrete in 39 dolphins and bridging

2 sets of sector gates (94 x 100 opening) including equipment

28000 sq ft Sheet piling

Road Crossings

2 high level highway crossings

1 railway bridge (at lock)

Contingency 20

$30200000

13000000

8000000

4567500

4273500

1452000

3880000

1504000

4300000

84000

2600000

1100000

$51200000

8841000

11220000

3700000

$74961000

14992200

$89953200

APPENDIX B-1

Estimated Daily Running Expenses Under Free Flag-Ore Carriers amp General Cargo Ships

Total Carrying Personnel Capacity

(tOns) Officers I Crew

I ORE CARRIERS

20000 8 30

30000 8 30 N o 40000 8 32

50000 8 32

60000 8 35

GENERAL CARGO

7500 35 -e

10500 35

13500 35

Payroll $

25000

25000

27000

27000

30000

-

-

--- shy

(1) Includes certain insurance items

Victualing $

5000

5000

5500

5500

6000

--

--_

Stores $

(1956 Figures)

8000

8000

9000

9000

10000

(1958 Figures)

-

-

-

Repairs $

8000

8000

10000

12000

12000

-

-

Surveying $

3500

3500

4500

4500

5500

-

-

-

Manage ment

$

6500

6500

6500

6500

6500

--

-

Mise $

5000

5000

5000

5000

5000

-

-

-

Total Daily Running Expenses

$

61000

61000

67500

69500

75000

65000

65000(1)

80000(1)

APPENDIX Bmiddot2 Speed and fuel costs-per day

Ore Carriers and General Cargo Ships Under Free Flag

Carrying Price of FuelMiles Per Cost ofFuel TonsCapacity per ton Fuel per

I Per Day(tons) (Average) dayHour Day

ORE CARRIERS $ $

20000 (1) 120 25005 30 75000 (2 ) 15 360 2500 7500030 (3) 10- - 2500 25000

30000 (1 ) 120 2500 875005 35 (2 ) 360 2500 8750015 35 (3 ) - - 12 2500 30000

40000 (1) 120 10000040 25005 (2 ) 360 40 2500 10000015 (3) -- 250015 37500

50000 (1) 120 2500 1125005 45 (2 ) 11250015 360 45 2500 (3 ) - 18 2500 45000-

60000 (1 ) 5 120 2500 12500050 (2 ) 15 2500 125000360 50 (3 ) - 20 2500 50000-

GENERAL CARGO

7500 (1) 1205 15 2500 37500 (2 ) 15 360 250015 37500 (3) --- - -

10000 (1 ) 120 18 2500 450005 (2 ) 250015 360 18 45000 (3 ) - 7 2500 17500-

13500 (1) 1205 20 2500 ~OOOO (2 ) 15 360 20 2500 0000 (3 ) - - 10 2500 25000

(1) (2) (3)

Canal Sea Port

21

APPENDIX A

GENERAL DESCRIPTION AND LOCATIONl

Engineers have considered four routes for the Canal A route along the Missaguash River is thought to be the most advantageous as it would pass through marshland along four-fifths of its length and would present the smallest excavation problem It is about 16 miles long This route is illustrated in the inset map numbered 1

There is a shorter possible route from Moncton to Shediac Bay which would be between 12 and IS miles long As it runs over high ground however the amount of excavation needed would be at least three times the amount required for the Missaguash route (I)

The Canal will form a natural extension of the St Lawrence Ship Channel It should therefore be of at least the 27-foot depth of the St Lawrence Seaway Preliminary engineering reports indicate that a 35-foot depth which prevails up to Montreal will be practicable This is the more important as the average size of ocean-going ships is increasing In 1958 about half the available ocean-going tonnage required a depth of over 30 feet when fully loaded

If the ore and tanker trades are important even greater depth is reshyquired A depth of 40 feet can be considered minimum for large oreshycarriers Charts I to IV illustrate this diffetence and the tendency for the average size of ships to grow One source of confusion is the abundance of Liberty ships which are still in existence While these ~hips exist they are already becoming of uneconomical size (and of course age) On Noshyvember 1st 1958 over 400 Liberty ships were inactive

A depth of 35 feet will allow tankers up to 25000 tons dwt and other ships up to 20000 tons dwt with a maximum 32 foot draft to use the canal when fully loaded

The difference in tide levels between Cumberland Basin and Baie Verte makes at least one lock necessary The maximum tide range in Baie Verte is about 10 feet compared to 50 feet in Cumberland Basin while extreme tides at Cumberland Basin are about 20 feet lower or higher than at Baie Verte

The cost of a 35-foot deep canal with a width of 300 feet including the cost of one lock approach facilities to the canal one railroad crossing and two highway crossings but exclusive of land expropriation costs was estimated at approximately $90 millions by Foundation of Canada Enshy

1 Engineering information included in this section has been summarized from A Preliminary Engineering Report on the Chignecto Canal prepared by Foundation of Canada Engineering Corporation Limited (April 1959)

17

gineering Corporation Limited The plan together with the proposal to employ one lock is the result of close cooperation between the Corporation and LaSalle Hydraulic Laboratory It has been independently examined and approved by Professor P Danel President of Sogeah in France who is a leading world authority on hydraulics and we believe the system proshyposed in the report to be worthy of the most careful study before it is abandoned in favour of a two-lock system

With one lock at the Cumberland Basin entrance the canals water level will fluctuate from about 0 - 8 feet with the Baie Verte tides With two locks one at either end the canals water level can be kept constant at about I4 - 16 feet above low tide at Baie Verte One lock will naturally reduce the time of a ships passage through the canal will decrease mainshytenance costs and will enable ships with 36 foot drafts to pass through at high tide since the time of the passage which is zt-3 hours would be shorter than the time during which the water level in the canal will be higher than the 35 foot minimum One lock will also avoid the drainage problem which will be raised when the canal with its constant water level will cut across the Missaguash River These advantages of the one lock system outweigh the extra excavation which will be required to maintain the 35 foot depth at low tide

The lock chamber would be 800 feet long and 100 feet wide which is the minimum size required to handle large tankers freighters or carriers and tugs towing barges The time for the passage of a ship through the lock would not exceed 30 minutes

The lock will consist of a main chamber gates and filling system and approaches with mooring facilities on both sides A railway bridge will be located at the south end The chamber walls will be of concrete crib construction with the cribs 60 feet wide and 95 feet high filled with gravel or rock and provided with mooring facilities

The bottom of the chamber will be lined with a concrete slab conshytaining weep holes to release hydrostatic pressure under the lock

Estimates of the cost of the canal have been made on the basis of assumed ground elevations and assumed soil types Firmer estimates would require soil borings and finer mapping than has yet been done

It appears probable that the very large tidal power potential of the eastern portion of the Bay of Fundy will be economically devel~ped in the future This can be achieved without conflict with the construction and operation of the Canal If tidal power plants are built later in the Cumbershyland and Shepody Basins navigation would benefit from increased water depth in the Cumberland Basin

18

ENGINEERING ESTIMATES

The following excavation quantities are based upon assumed ground elevations

Canal

75500000 cu yd Dredging excavation

6500000 cu yd Rock excavation

2000000 cu yd Rock protection

Canal Approaches

13050000 cu yd Dredging-Cumberland Basin

12210000 cu yd Dredging-Baie Verte

Navigation Lock

825000 cu yd Earthwork including excavation backfill and pumping

155300 cu yd Concrete in lock chamber

37600 cu yd Concrete in 39 dolphins and bridging

2 sets of sector gates (94 x 100 opening) including equipment

28000 sq ft Sheet piling

Road Crossings

2 high level highway crossings

1 railway bridge (at lock)

Contingency 20

$30200000

13000000

8000000

4567500

4273500

1452000

3880000

1504000

4300000

84000

2600000

1100000

$51200000

8841000

11220000

3700000

$74961000

14992200

$89953200

APPENDIX B-1

Estimated Daily Running Expenses Under Free Flag-Ore Carriers amp General Cargo Ships

Total Carrying Personnel Capacity

(tOns) Officers I Crew

I ORE CARRIERS

20000 8 30

30000 8 30 N o 40000 8 32

50000 8 32

60000 8 35

GENERAL CARGO

7500 35 -e

10500 35

13500 35

Payroll $

25000

25000

27000

27000

30000

-

-

--- shy

(1) Includes certain insurance items

Victualing $

5000

5000

5500

5500

6000

--

--_

Stores $

(1956 Figures)

8000

8000

9000

9000

10000

(1958 Figures)

-

-

-

Repairs $

8000

8000

10000

12000

12000

-

-

Surveying $

3500

3500

4500

4500

5500

-

-

-

Manage ment

$

6500

6500

6500

6500

6500

--

-

Mise $

5000

5000

5000

5000

5000

-

-

-

Total Daily Running Expenses

$

61000

61000

67500

69500

75000

65000

65000(1)

80000(1)

APPENDIX Bmiddot2 Speed and fuel costs-per day

Ore Carriers and General Cargo Ships Under Free Flag

Carrying Price of FuelMiles Per Cost ofFuel TonsCapacity per ton Fuel per

I Per Day(tons) (Average) dayHour Day

ORE CARRIERS $ $

20000 (1) 120 25005 30 75000 (2 ) 15 360 2500 7500030 (3) 10- - 2500 25000

30000 (1 ) 120 2500 875005 35 (2 ) 360 2500 8750015 35 (3 ) - - 12 2500 30000

40000 (1) 120 10000040 25005 (2 ) 360 40 2500 10000015 (3) -- 250015 37500

50000 (1) 120 2500 1125005 45 (2 ) 11250015 360 45 2500 (3 ) - 18 2500 45000-

60000 (1 ) 5 120 2500 12500050 (2 ) 15 2500 125000360 50 (3 ) - 20 2500 50000-

GENERAL CARGO

7500 (1) 1205 15 2500 37500 (2 ) 15 360 250015 37500 (3) --- - -

10000 (1 ) 120 18 2500 450005 (2 ) 250015 360 18 45000 (3 ) - 7 2500 17500-

13500 (1) 1205 20 2500 ~OOOO (2 ) 15 360 20 2500 0000 (3 ) - - 10 2500 25000

(1) (2) (3)

Canal Sea Port

21

gineering Corporation Limited The plan together with the proposal to employ one lock is the result of close cooperation between the Corporation and LaSalle Hydraulic Laboratory It has been independently examined and approved by Professor P Danel President of Sogeah in France who is a leading world authority on hydraulics and we believe the system proshyposed in the report to be worthy of the most careful study before it is abandoned in favour of a two-lock system

With one lock at the Cumberland Basin entrance the canals water level will fluctuate from about 0 - 8 feet with the Baie Verte tides With two locks one at either end the canals water level can be kept constant at about I4 - 16 feet above low tide at Baie Verte One lock will naturally reduce the time of a ships passage through the canal will decrease mainshytenance costs and will enable ships with 36 foot drafts to pass through at high tide since the time of the passage which is zt-3 hours would be shorter than the time during which the water level in the canal will be higher than the 35 foot minimum One lock will also avoid the drainage problem which will be raised when the canal with its constant water level will cut across the Missaguash River These advantages of the one lock system outweigh the extra excavation which will be required to maintain the 35 foot depth at low tide

The lock chamber would be 800 feet long and 100 feet wide which is the minimum size required to handle large tankers freighters or carriers and tugs towing barges The time for the passage of a ship through the lock would not exceed 30 minutes

The lock will consist of a main chamber gates and filling system and approaches with mooring facilities on both sides A railway bridge will be located at the south end The chamber walls will be of concrete crib construction with the cribs 60 feet wide and 95 feet high filled with gravel or rock and provided with mooring facilities

The bottom of the chamber will be lined with a concrete slab conshytaining weep holes to release hydrostatic pressure under the lock

Estimates of the cost of the canal have been made on the basis of assumed ground elevations and assumed soil types Firmer estimates would require soil borings and finer mapping than has yet been done

It appears probable that the very large tidal power potential of the eastern portion of the Bay of Fundy will be economically devel~ped in the future This can be achieved without conflict with the construction and operation of the Canal If tidal power plants are built later in the Cumbershyland and Shepody Basins navigation would benefit from increased water depth in the Cumberland Basin

18

ENGINEERING ESTIMATES

The following excavation quantities are based upon assumed ground elevations

Canal

75500000 cu yd Dredging excavation

6500000 cu yd Rock excavation

2000000 cu yd Rock protection

Canal Approaches

13050000 cu yd Dredging-Cumberland Basin

12210000 cu yd Dredging-Baie Verte

Navigation Lock

825000 cu yd Earthwork including excavation backfill and pumping

155300 cu yd Concrete in lock chamber

37600 cu yd Concrete in 39 dolphins and bridging

2 sets of sector gates (94 x 100 opening) including equipment

28000 sq ft Sheet piling

Road Crossings

2 high level highway crossings

1 railway bridge (at lock)

Contingency 20

$30200000

13000000

8000000

4567500

4273500

1452000

3880000

1504000

4300000

84000

2600000

1100000

$51200000

8841000

11220000

3700000

$74961000

14992200

$89953200

APPENDIX B-1

Estimated Daily Running Expenses Under Free Flag-Ore Carriers amp General Cargo Ships

Total Carrying Personnel Capacity

(tOns) Officers I Crew

I ORE CARRIERS

20000 8 30

30000 8 30 N o 40000 8 32

50000 8 32

60000 8 35

GENERAL CARGO

7500 35 -e

10500 35

13500 35

Payroll $

25000

25000

27000

27000

30000

-

-

--- shy

(1) Includes certain insurance items

Victualing $

5000

5000

5500

5500

6000

--

--_

Stores $

(1956 Figures)

8000

8000

9000

9000

10000

(1958 Figures)

-

-

-

Repairs $

8000

8000

10000

12000

12000

-

-

Surveying $

3500

3500

4500

4500

5500

-

-

-

Manage ment

$

6500

6500

6500

6500

6500

--

-

Mise $

5000

5000

5000

5000

5000

-

-

-

Total Daily Running Expenses

$

61000

61000

67500

69500

75000

65000

65000(1)

80000(1)

APPENDIX Bmiddot2 Speed and fuel costs-per day

Ore Carriers and General Cargo Ships Under Free Flag

Carrying Price of FuelMiles Per Cost ofFuel TonsCapacity per ton Fuel per

I Per Day(tons) (Average) dayHour Day

ORE CARRIERS $ $

20000 (1) 120 25005 30 75000 (2 ) 15 360 2500 7500030 (3) 10- - 2500 25000

30000 (1 ) 120 2500 875005 35 (2 ) 360 2500 8750015 35 (3 ) - - 12 2500 30000

40000 (1) 120 10000040 25005 (2 ) 360 40 2500 10000015 (3) -- 250015 37500

50000 (1) 120 2500 1125005 45 (2 ) 11250015 360 45 2500 (3 ) - 18 2500 45000-

60000 (1 ) 5 120 2500 12500050 (2 ) 15 2500 125000360 50 (3 ) - 20 2500 50000-

GENERAL CARGO

7500 (1) 1205 15 2500 37500 (2 ) 15 360 250015 37500 (3) --- - -

10000 (1 ) 120 18 2500 450005 (2 ) 250015 360 18 45000 (3 ) - 7 2500 17500-

13500 (1) 1205 20 2500 ~OOOO (2 ) 15 360 20 2500 0000 (3 ) - - 10 2500 25000

(1) (2) (3)

Canal Sea Port

21

ENGINEERING ESTIMATES

The following excavation quantities are based upon assumed ground elevations

Canal

75500000 cu yd Dredging excavation

6500000 cu yd Rock excavation

2000000 cu yd Rock protection

Canal Approaches

13050000 cu yd Dredging-Cumberland Basin

12210000 cu yd Dredging-Baie Verte

Navigation Lock

825000 cu yd Earthwork including excavation backfill and pumping

155300 cu yd Concrete in lock chamber

37600 cu yd Concrete in 39 dolphins and bridging

2 sets of sector gates (94 x 100 opening) including equipment

28000 sq ft Sheet piling

Road Crossings

2 high level highway crossings

1 railway bridge (at lock)

Contingency 20

$30200000

13000000

8000000

4567500

4273500

1452000

3880000

1504000

4300000

84000

2600000

1100000

$51200000

8841000

11220000

3700000

$74961000

14992200

$89953200

APPENDIX B-1

Estimated Daily Running Expenses Under Free Flag-Ore Carriers amp General Cargo Ships

Total Carrying Personnel Capacity

(tOns) Officers I Crew

I ORE CARRIERS

20000 8 30

30000 8 30 N o 40000 8 32

50000 8 32

60000 8 35

GENERAL CARGO

7500 35 -e

10500 35

13500 35

Payroll $

25000

25000

27000

27000

30000

-

-

--- shy

(1) Includes certain insurance items

Victualing $

5000

5000

5500

5500

6000

--

--_

Stores $

(1956 Figures)

8000

8000

9000

9000

10000

(1958 Figures)

-

-

-

Repairs $

8000

8000

10000

12000

12000

-

-

Surveying $

3500

3500

4500

4500

5500

-

-

-

Manage ment

$

6500

6500

6500

6500

6500

--

-

Mise $

5000

5000

5000

5000

5000

-

-

-

Total Daily Running Expenses

$

61000

61000

67500

69500

75000

65000

65000(1)

80000(1)

APPENDIX Bmiddot2 Speed and fuel costs-per day

Ore Carriers and General Cargo Ships Under Free Flag

Carrying Price of FuelMiles Per Cost ofFuel TonsCapacity per ton Fuel per

I Per Day(tons) (Average) dayHour Day

ORE CARRIERS $ $

20000 (1) 120 25005 30 75000 (2 ) 15 360 2500 7500030 (3) 10- - 2500 25000

30000 (1 ) 120 2500 875005 35 (2 ) 360 2500 8750015 35 (3 ) - - 12 2500 30000

40000 (1) 120 10000040 25005 (2 ) 360 40 2500 10000015 (3) -- 250015 37500

50000 (1) 120 2500 1125005 45 (2 ) 11250015 360 45 2500 (3 ) - 18 2500 45000-

60000 (1 ) 5 120 2500 12500050 (2 ) 15 2500 125000360 50 (3 ) - 20 2500 50000-

GENERAL CARGO

7500 (1) 1205 15 2500 37500 (2 ) 15 360 250015 37500 (3) --- - -

10000 (1 ) 120 18 2500 450005 (2 ) 250015 360 18 45000 (3 ) - 7 2500 17500-

13500 (1) 1205 20 2500 ~OOOO (2 ) 15 360 20 2500 0000 (3 ) - - 10 2500 25000

(1) (2) (3)

Canal Sea Port

21

APPENDIX B-1

Estimated Daily Running Expenses Under Free Flag-Ore Carriers amp General Cargo Ships

Total Carrying Personnel Capacity

(tOns) Officers I Crew

I ORE CARRIERS

20000 8 30

30000 8 30 N o 40000 8 32

50000 8 32

60000 8 35

GENERAL CARGO

7500 35 -e

10500 35

13500 35

Payroll $

25000

25000

27000

27000

30000

-

-

--- shy

(1) Includes certain insurance items

Victualing $

5000

5000

5500

5500

6000

--

--_

Stores $

(1956 Figures)

8000

8000

9000

9000

10000

(1958 Figures)

-

-

-

Repairs $

8000

8000

10000

12000

12000

-

-

Surveying $

3500

3500

4500

4500

5500

-

-

-

Manage ment

$

6500

6500

6500

6500

6500

--

-

Mise $

5000

5000

5000

5000

5000

-

-

-

Total Daily Running Expenses

$

61000

61000

67500

69500

75000

65000

65000(1)

80000(1)

APPENDIX Bmiddot2 Speed and fuel costs-per day

Ore Carriers and General Cargo Ships Under Free Flag

Carrying Price of FuelMiles Per Cost ofFuel TonsCapacity per ton Fuel per

I Per Day(tons) (Average) dayHour Day

ORE CARRIERS $ $

20000 (1) 120 25005 30 75000 (2 ) 15 360 2500 7500030 (3) 10- - 2500 25000

30000 (1 ) 120 2500 875005 35 (2 ) 360 2500 8750015 35 (3 ) - - 12 2500 30000

40000 (1) 120 10000040 25005 (2 ) 360 40 2500 10000015 (3) -- 250015 37500

50000 (1) 120 2500 1125005 45 (2 ) 11250015 360 45 2500 (3 ) - 18 2500 45000-

60000 (1 ) 5 120 2500 12500050 (2 ) 15 2500 125000360 50 (3 ) - 20 2500 50000-

GENERAL CARGO

7500 (1) 1205 15 2500 37500 (2 ) 15 360 250015 37500 (3) --- - -

10000 (1 ) 120 18 2500 450005 (2 ) 250015 360 18 45000 (3 ) - 7 2500 17500-

13500 (1) 1205 20 2500 ~OOOO (2 ) 15 360 20 2500 0000 (3 ) - - 10 2500 25000

(1) (2) (3)

Canal Sea Port

21

APPENDIX Bmiddot2 Speed and fuel costs-per day

Ore Carriers and General Cargo Ships Under Free Flag

Carrying Price of FuelMiles Per Cost ofFuel TonsCapacity per ton Fuel per

I Per Day(tons) (Average) dayHour Day

ORE CARRIERS $ $

20000 (1) 120 25005 30 75000 (2 ) 15 360 2500 7500030 (3) 10- - 2500 25000

30000 (1 ) 120 2500 875005 35 (2 ) 360 2500 8750015 35 (3 ) - - 12 2500 30000

40000 (1) 120 10000040 25005 (2 ) 360 40 2500 10000015 (3) -- 250015 37500

50000 (1) 120 2500 1125005 45 (2 ) 11250015 360 45 2500 (3 ) - 18 2500 45000-

60000 (1 ) 5 120 2500 12500050 (2 ) 15 2500 125000360 50 (3 ) - 20 2500 50000-

GENERAL CARGO

7500 (1) 1205 15 2500 37500 (2 ) 15 360 250015 37500 (3) --- - -

10000 (1 ) 120 18 2500 450005 (2 ) 250015 360 18 45000 (3 ) - 7 2500 17500-

13500 (1) 1205 20 2500 ~OOOO (2 ) 15 360 20 2500 0000 (3 ) - - 10 2500 25000

(1) (2) (3)

Canal Sea Port

21

APPENDIX Bmiddot3

-

Carrying Capacity

(tons)

Estimated Daily Capital Charges-Free Flag-Ore Carriers and General Cargo Ships

CoSt of Construction

Per Ton of Deadweight

$

ORE CARRIERS

20000

hi tJ

30000

40000

50000

60000

17500

17500

17500

17500

17500

Total Cost

of Construction

$

3500000

5250000

7000000

8750000

10500000

GENERAL CARGO SHIPS

7500 -I

19000 1425000

10500 19000 1995000

13500 19000 2565000

(1) Present race is closer to 6

Annual Interest

Payments at 5 on

Outstanding Capital $ (1)

105850

158775

211700

264625

317550

42650

59850

76950

Daily Annual Daily Interest Cost of Cost of

Payments Annual Daily Insurance Insurance at 5 per Cost of Cost of at 2 of at 2 of Total Year on Depreciation Depreciation Total Total Daily

Outstanding at 5 at 5 Value of Value of Capital Capital per Year per Year Ship Ship Charges

$ $ $ [$ (2) [$ $

(1956 figures)

29000 17500000 47900 70000 19200 96100

43500 26250000 71900 105000 28800 144200

58000 35000000 95900 140000 38400 192300

72500 43750000 120000 175000 47900 240400

87000 52500000 143800 210000 57500 288300

(1958 figures)

11700 7125000 19500 28500 8000 39200

16400 9975000 27300 39900 10900 54600

21000 12825000 35100 51300 14000 70100

(2) Average insurance is 2-212 buc can vary widely with experience

APPENDIX B ~4

Estimated Daily Transportation Costs

-By Type of Carrier and Carrying Capacity-

Carrying Capacity

(tons)

Daily Running Expenses

$

Daily Fuel

Consumption $

Dailymiddot Capital Charges

$

Total Daily

Expenses $

-ORE CARRIERS

20000 61000 75000 96100 232100

30000 61000 87500 144200 292700

40000 67500 100000 192300 359800

50000 69500 112500 240400 422400

GENERAL CARGO SHIPS

60000 75000 125000 388300 588300

7500 65000 37500 39200 141700

10500 65000 45000 54600 16460lt

13500 80000 50000 70100 2O( 100

r

APPENDIX B-S

Estimated Savings of Shipping Costs

CostsTripsDaysRoute SavedSaved per Year $

Prince Edward Island

-United States (New York) 118 809 -Panama

041 022 70

-West Indies 019

222 -South America

070019 085 270

-Central America 019

004019 13

Nova Scotia (Bay of Fundy)

-Prince Edward Island 026 430 -Newfoundland

099 6746

-New Brunswick 585069 041110 754

-Nova Scotia 066 075 827 -Province of Quebec 080 460 6150

New Brunswick (Bay of Fundy)

-Prince Edward Island 087 1352 -Newfoundland

093 077051 656

-New Brunswick 1237 -Nova Scotia

105 705 2391

-Province of Quebec 093 1539

3281 58122106

New Brunswick (North)

-United States 1826 16784055

Province of Quebec

-United States 140965 -Panama

041 20573 11463

-West Indies 019 3610 019 7718 24507

-South America 28612 -Central America

019 9011 019 722 2293

Newfoundland

-United States 009 48072979

Allowance for Additional Savshyings by Protected Shipping 200000

TOTAL 509480t

In making the above estimates a speed of 6 mph was assumed in the Canal and a oneshyhalf hour delay in the lock The calculations were based on information received from ship operators about the costs of operating a ship under free flag Although some operators believe that individual items in the estimates are open to question there is general agreement that the totals are realistic Costs vary gready depending upon the country of registry In the main text the total above was inflated to make what is believed to be a conservative allowance for the additional savings which will be realized by ships of protected flag No shipments of iron ore have been included in these estimates

CHART I

DISTRIBUTION

DRAUGHT OF FREIGHTERS

Mid - 1958

No of Ships

6000

5000

4000

3000

2000

1000

o (

14 and 15 - 19 20 - 24 25 - 29 30 - 34 35 and under over

Draught in Feet

CHART II

DISTRIBUTION

DRAUGHT OF FREIGHTERS

ON ORDER Mid - 1958

No of Ships

840

720

600

480

360

240

120

O~--------~WL---14 and 35 and under over

15 - 19 20 - 24 25-2930-34

Draught in Feet

CHART III

DISTRIBUTION

DRAUGHT OF BULK CARRIERS

Midmiddot 1958

No of Ships

300

250

200

150

100

50

o 14 and 35 and under I over

15 - 19 20 - 24 25 - 29 30- 34

Draught in Feet

27

140

CHART IV

DISTRIBUTION

DRAUGHT OF BULK CARRIERS

ON ORDER Mid - 1958

No of Ships

120

100

80

60

40

20

14 and under

25 - 29

Draught in Feet

over

28

APPENDIX B ~4

Estimated Daily Transportation Costs

-By Type of Carrier and Carrying Capacity-

Carrying Capacity

(tons)

Daily Running Expenses

$

Daily Fuel

Consumption $

Dailymiddot Capital Charges

$

Total Daily

Expenses $

-ORE CARRIERS

20000 61000 75000 96100 232100

30000 61000 87500 144200 292700

40000 67500 100000 192300 359800

50000 69500 112500 240400 422400

GENERAL CARGO SHIPS

60000 75000 125000 388300 588300

7500 65000 37500 39200 141700

10500 65000 45000 54600 16460lt

13500 80000 50000 70100 2O( 100

r

APPENDIX B-S

Estimated Savings of Shipping Costs

CostsTripsDaysRoute SavedSaved per Year $

Prince Edward Island

-United States (New York) 118 809 -Panama

041 022 70

-West Indies 019

222 -South America

070019 085 270

-Central America 019

004019 13

Nova Scotia (Bay of Fundy)

-Prince Edward Island 026 430 -Newfoundland

099 6746

-New Brunswick 585069 041110 754

-Nova Scotia 066 075 827 -Province of Quebec 080 460 6150

New Brunswick (Bay of Fundy)

-Prince Edward Island 087 1352 -Newfoundland

093 077051 656

-New Brunswick 1237 -Nova Scotia

105 705 2391

-Province of Quebec 093 1539

3281 58122106

New Brunswick (North)

-United States 1826 16784055

Province of Quebec

-United States 140965 -Panama

041 20573 11463

-West Indies 019 3610 019 7718 24507

-South America 28612 -Central America

019 9011 019 722 2293

Newfoundland

-United States 009 48072979

Allowance for Additional Savshyings by Protected Shipping 200000

TOTAL 509480t

In making the above estimates a speed of 6 mph was assumed in the Canal and a oneshyhalf hour delay in the lock The calculations were based on information received from ship operators about the costs of operating a ship under free flag Although some operators believe that individual items in the estimates are open to question there is general agreement that the totals are realistic Costs vary gready depending upon the country of registry In the main text the total above was inflated to make what is believed to be a conservative allowance for the additional savings which will be realized by ships of protected flag No shipments of iron ore have been included in these estimates

CHART I

DISTRIBUTION

DRAUGHT OF FREIGHTERS

Mid - 1958

No of Ships

6000

5000

4000

3000

2000

1000

o (

14 and 15 - 19 20 - 24 25 - 29 30 - 34 35 and under over

Draught in Feet

CHART II

DISTRIBUTION

DRAUGHT OF FREIGHTERS

ON ORDER Mid - 1958

No of Ships

840

720

600

480

360

240

120

O~--------~WL---14 and 35 and under over

15 - 19 20 - 24 25-2930-34

Draught in Feet

CHART III

DISTRIBUTION

DRAUGHT OF BULK CARRIERS

Midmiddot 1958

No of Ships

300

250

200

150

100

50

o 14 and 35 and under I over

15 - 19 20 - 24 25 - 29 30- 34

Draught in Feet

27

140

CHART IV

DISTRIBUTION

DRAUGHT OF BULK CARRIERS

ON ORDER Mid - 1958

No of Ships

120

100

80

60

40

20

14 and under

25 - 29

Draught in Feet

over

28

APPENDIX B-S

Estimated Savings of Shipping Costs

CostsTripsDaysRoute SavedSaved per Year $

Prince Edward Island

-United States (New York) 118 809 -Panama

041 022 70

-West Indies 019

222 -South America

070019 085 270

-Central America 019

004019 13

Nova Scotia (Bay of Fundy)

-Prince Edward Island 026 430 -Newfoundland

099 6746

-New Brunswick 585069 041110 754

-Nova Scotia 066 075 827 -Province of Quebec 080 460 6150

New Brunswick (Bay of Fundy)

-Prince Edward Island 087 1352 -Newfoundland

093 077051 656

-New Brunswick 1237 -Nova Scotia

105 705 2391

-Province of Quebec 093 1539

3281 58122106

New Brunswick (North)

-United States 1826 16784055

Province of Quebec

-United States 140965 -Panama

041 20573 11463

-West Indies 019 3610 019 7718 24507

-South America 28612 -Central America

019 9011 019 722 2293

Newfoundland

-United States 009 48072979

Allowance for Additional Savshyings by Protected Shipping 200000

TOTAL 509480t

In making the above estimates a speed of 6 mph was assumed in the Canal and a oneshyhalf hour delay in the lock The calculations were based on information received from ship operators about the costs of operating a ship under free flag Although some operators believe that individual items in the estimates are open to question there is general agreement that the totals are realistic Costs vary gready depending upon the country of registry In the main text the total above was inflated to make what is believed to be a conservative allowance for the additional savings which will be realized by ships of protected flag No shipments of iron ore have been included in these estimates

CHART I

DISTRIBUTION

DRAUGHT OF FREIGHTERS

Mid - 1958

No of Ships

6000

5000

4000

3000

2000

1000

o (

14 and 15 - 19 20 - 24 25 - 29 30 - 34 35 and under over

Draught in Feet

CHART II

DISTRIBUTION

DRAUGHT OF FREIGHTERS

ON ORDER Mid - 1958

No of Ships

840

720

600

480

360

240

120

O~--------~WL---14 and 35 and under over

15 - 19 20 - 24 25-2930-34

Draught in Feet

CHART III

DISTRIBUTION

DRAUGHT OF BULK CARRIERS

Midmiddot 1958

No of Ships

300

250

200

150

100

50

o 14 and 35 and under I over

15 - 19 20 - 24 25 - 29 30- 34

Draught in Feet

27

140

CHART IV

DISTRIBUTION

DRAUGHT OF BULK CARRIERS

ON ORDER Mid - 1958

No of Ships

120

100

80

60

40

20

14 and under

25 - 29

Draught in Feet

over

28

CHART I

DISTRIBUTION

DRAUGHT OF FREIGHTERS

Mid - 1958

No of Ships

6000

5000

4000

3000

2000

1000

o (

14 and 15 - 19 20 - 24 25 - 29 30 - 34 35 and under over

Draught in Feet

CHART II

DISTRIBUTION

DRAUGHT OF FREIGHTERS

ON ORDER Mid - 1958

No of Ships

840

720

600

480

360

240

120

O~--------~WL---14 and 35 and under over

15 - 19 20 - 24 25-2930-34

Draught in Feet

CHART III

DISTRIBUTION

DRAUGHT OF BULK CARRIERS

Midmiddot 1958

No of Ships

300

250

200

150

100

50

o 14 and 35 and under I over

15 - 19 20 - 24 25 - 29 30- 34

Draught in Feet

27

140

CHART IV

DISTRIBUTION

DRAUGHT OF BULK CARRIERS

ON ORDER Mid - 1958

No of Ships

120

100

80

60

40

20

14 and under

25 - 29

Draught in Feet

over

28

CHART II

DISTRIBUTION

DRAUGHT OF FREIGHTERS

ON ORDER Mid - 1958

No of Ships

840

720

600

480

360

240

120

O~--------~WL---14 and 35 and under over

15 - 19 20 - 24 25-2930-34

Draught in Feet

CHART III

DISTRIBUTION

DRAUGHT OF BULK CARRIERS

Midmiddot 1958

No of Ships

300

250

200

150

100

50

o 14 and 35 and under I over

15 - 19 20 - 24 25 - 29 30- 34

Draught in Feet

27

140

CHART IV

DISTRIBUTION

DRAUGHT OF BULK CARRIERS

ON ORDER Mid - 1958

No of Ships

120

100

80

60

40

20

14 and under

25 - 29

Draught in Feet

over

28

CHART III

DISTRIBUTION

DRAUGHT OF BULK CARRIERS

Midmiddot 1958

No of Ships

300

250

200

150

100

50

o 14 and 35 and under I over

15 - 19 20 - 24 25 - 29 30- 34

Draught in Feet

27

140

CHART IV

DISTRIBUTION

DRAUGHT OF BULK CARRIERS

ON ORDER Mid - 1958

No of Ships

120

100

80

60

40

20

14 and under

25 - 29

Draught in Feet

over

28

140

CHART IV

DISTRIBUTION

DRAUGHT OF BULK CARRIERS

ON ORDER Mid - 1958

No of Ships

120

100

80

60

40

20

14 and under

25 - 29

Draught in Feet

over

28