Economic Research APAC Economic Snapshots: The Cyclical ...Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17 Jan-18 May-18...
Transcript of Economic Research APAC Economic Snapshots: The Cyclical ...Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17 Jan-18 May-18...
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RESEARCH CONTRIBUTORS
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Lavanya Kaushal
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Economic Research
APAC Economic Snapshots: The Cyclical Tide is Receding November 2018
APAC Economic Snapshots
spglobal.com/ratings November 2018 2
The Cyclical Tide Is Receding
Chart 1: Asia-Pacific Manufacturing Trade Cycle Chart 2: Asia Pacific Real GDP Growth
Sources: CEIC and S&P Global Economics. Manufacturing exports in U.S. dollar value terms. Asia-Pacific includes Australia, China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam. Cycle is extracted from an asymmetric band-pass filter with frequencies set between 3 and 12 years.
Sources: CEIC, IMF WEO, and S&P Global Economics. Asia-Pacific includes Australia, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, New Zealand, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam. ASEAN-6 includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam. Aggregates weighted by current price PPP GDP in U.S. dollars.
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
2015 2016 2017 2018
(%, y/y
)
Asia-Pacific Asia-Pacific ex-China, India, and Japan ASEAN 6
APAC Economic Snapshots
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In Focus: External Pressures And Domestic Policy Space
Chart 3: Change In Real Policy Rate (end April to end Oct 2018)
In the Philippines, the pass-through to inflation from oil prices and FX depreciation was immediate. Indonesia held key prices down administratively, but will likely need to raise prices after elections
next year. India’s fuel as well as core inflation have been rising, but it has had the fortune of a better-than-expected food supply to hold headline inflation down. Nonetheless, inflation expectations in the latter two seem to be rising, justifying a tightening bias from the central banks.
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
Thailand Korea India Philippines Indonesia
APAC Economic Snapshots
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(2.0)
(1.0)
0.0
1.0
2.0
Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17 Jan-18 May-18 Sep-18
(%, sa 3
mm
av
g)
Total Retail Food Household goods Cafes
Australia
State Of Play
Outlook
Risks
Retail Sales Growth Eased In September
Source: CEIC.
Real Wage Growth Edges Slightly Higher In Q3
Source: CEIC.
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
Q3.18Q4.17Q1.17Q2.16Q3.15Q4.14
Wage Price Index: excl Bonuses: (sa,y/y) Consumer Price Index: (sa,y/y)
APAC Economic Snapshots
spglobal.com/ratings November 2018 5
Australia Economic Data And Forecast Summary
Selected Economic Indicators
Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18
12.6 13.5 16.0 9.4 15.3 10.7 9.9 4.4
13.3 (0.6) 1.1 16.7 24.5 6.5 (4.9) (4.4)
12.6 20.7 18.0 0.7 9.4 (20.8) (5.7) (12.8)
481.3 696.9 2,082 1,579 3,170 3,088 2,294 3,014
5.7 5.0 5.2 4.9 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.9
1.6 2.3 1.2 3.3 2.6 2.6 4.2 2.8
5.4 5.5 5.6 5.4 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.0 5.0
Real GDP Components, Fiscal Position, And Balance Of Payments
2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2017 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2018 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3
3.2 3.4
3.1 3.0
3.8 3.5
(13.2) (4.6) (4.3) (7.3) (11.9) (12.9) (8.2) (9.0)
1.3 1.5 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.1 1.9
4.7 4.5
S&P Global Ratings Economic Outlook
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018f 2019f 2020f 2021f
2.2 2.6 2.5 2.6 2.2 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.8
2.4 2.5 1.5 1.3 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4
5.7 6.1 6.0 5.7 5.6 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.2
2.74 2.50 2.11 1.73 1.50 1.50 1.66 1.97 2.22
2.50 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.75 2.00 2.25
0.97 0.90 0.75 0.74 0.77 0.75 0.74 0.75
0.93 0.85 0.72 0.75 0.77 0.73 0.74 0.75
APAC Economic Snapshots
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China
State Of Play
Outlook
Risks
Financial Conditions Remained Neutral In October
Sources: CEIC; S&P Global Economics.
Real Estate Is Showing Signs of Cooling
Source: CEIC.
(2.0)
(1.5)
(1.0)
(0.5)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
Oct-10 Oct-11 Oct-12 Oct-13 Oct-14 Oct-15 Oct-16 Oct-17 Oct-18
(Po
sit
ive=
Lo
oser)
z-score
(20.0)
(10.0)
-
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
Oct-16 Feb-17 Jun-17 Oct-17 Feb-18 Jun-18 Oct-18
(%, y/
y 3m
ma)
Housing Starts Housing Transact ions
APAC Economic Snapshots
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China Economic Data And Forecast Summary
Selected Economic Indicators
Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18
1.9 1.5 1.8 1.8 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.5
2.3 1.9 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.0 1.7 1.8
6.2 9.7 11.1 11.4 10.2 11.3 9.0 14.4 15.0
16.8 37.1 20.9 25.1 13.8 27.7 20.4 14.9 21.5
38.2 20.3 28.4 24.9 41.5 28.0 27.9 31.7 34.0
6.2 7.0 6.8 6.0 6.0 6.1 5.8 5.9
10.0 9.4 8.5 9.0 8.8 9.0 9.2 8.6
Source: CEIC.
Real GDP Components, Fiscal Position, And Balance Of Payments
2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2017 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2018 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3
6.8 6.7 6.5
3.2 3.2 3.4
6.3 6.1 5.8
7.5 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.8 8.0 7.5 7.6 7.7
75.4 14.7 15.7 52.6 34.3 62.3 (34.1) 5.3 16.0
Source: CEIC.
S&P Global Ratings Economic Outlook
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018f 2019f 2020f 2021f
7.8 7.3 6.9 6.7 6.9 6.5 6.3 6.1 6.0
2.6 2.0 1.4 2.0 1.5 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.5
4.1 4.1 4.0 4.0 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 4.0
6.00 5.96 4.97 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35
6.00 5.96 4.97 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35
6.1 6.2 6.3 6.6 6.8 6.6 6.7 6.6
6.1 6.1 6.4 6.8 6.6 6.8 6.7 6.6
Source: Oxford Economics; f: S&P Global Ratings forecast; End of Period - Q4 values.
APAC Economic Snapshots
spglobal.com/ratings November 2018 8
Hong Kong
State Of Play
Outlook
Risks
GDP Growth Moderated In Q3, Lowest In Two Years
Source: CEIC.
Property Prices Declined For First Time In 29 Months
Source: CEIC.
(6)
(4)
(2)
0
2
4
6
8
Q3.18Q1.18Q3.17Q1.17Q3.16Q1.16Q3.15
(Co
ntr
ibu
tio
n t
o %
, y/
y G
DP
g
row
th)
PCE GCEGFCF Changes in InventoriesNet Exports GDP Growth
(2)
0
2
4
6
(60)
0
60
120
180
Oct-16 Feb-17 Jun-17 Oct-17 Feb-18 Jun-18 Oct-18
(%, m
/m)
(%, y/
y)
Property Sales Transaction: Number: Domestic
Property Price Index: 1999=100: Domestic Premise (RHS)
APAC Economic Snapshots
spglobal.com/ratings November 2018 9
Hong Kong Economic Data And Forecast Summary
Selected Economic Indicators
Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18
Source: CEIC.
Real GDP components, fiscal position, and balance of payments
2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2017 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2018 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3
Source: CEIC.
S&P Global Ratings Economic Outlook
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018f 2019f 2020f 2021f
3.1 2.8 2.4 2.2 3.8 3.6 3.0 2.9 2.8
4.3 4.5 3.0 2.4 1.5 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4
3.4 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.1 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.1
7.76 7.75 7.75 7.76 7.79 7.84 7.82 7.78
7.75 7.76 7.75 7.76 7.81 7.85 7.81 7.76
Source: Oxford Economics; f: S&P Global Ratings forecast; End of Period - Q4 values.
APAC Economic Snapshots
spglobal.com/ratings November 2018 10
India
State Of Play
Outlook
Risks
New Orders Boost Business Sentiment In October
Source: Bloomberg.
Headline Inflation Eased Further In October
Source: CEIC.
44
46
48
50
52
54
56
Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18
(PM
I L
ev
els
)
Nikkei Manufacturing PMI Nikkei Services PMI
5.50
5.75
6.00
6.25
6.50
6.75
7.00
(6.0)
(3.0)
0.0
3.0
6.0
9.0
12.0
Oct-16 Feb-17 Jun-17 Oct-17 Feb-18 Jun-18 Oct-18
(%, p
.a.)
(%, y/
y)
Headline CPI CPI: Food
CPI: Fuel and Light Repo Rate (RHS)
APAC Economic Snapshots
spglobal.com/ratings November 2018 11
India Economic Data And Forecast Summary
Selected Economic Indicators
Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18
3.6 5.1 4.6 4.9 4.9 4.2 3.7 3.7 3.3
3.7 3.0 3.6 4.8 5.7 5.3 4.6 5.1 5.3
(2.0) 13.6 4.3 20.9 18.7 16.4 19.5 (2.3) 17.9
8.7 26.2 2.0 14.6 20.9 28.0 25.6 10.5 17.6
(14.6) (15.3) (14.0) (14.9) (17.5) (17.9) (17.4) (14.0) (17.1)
1.8 7.5 4.5 3.8 7.0 6.5 4.7 4.5
2.0 8.7 4.9 3.6 6.9 7.0 5.1 4.6
Source: CEIC.
Real GDP Components, Fiscal Position, And Balance Of Payments
2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2017 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2018 Q1 2018 Q2
7.0 7.7 8.2
5.9 6.7 8.6
6.8 16.9 7.6
15.9 10.5 8.7 6.0 0.8 6.1 9.1 14.4 10.0
(382.5) (3,450) (7,964) (2,554) (14,966) (6,944) (13,704) (13,047) (15,807)
Source: CEIC.
S&P Global Ratings Economic Outlook
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018f 2019f 2020f 2021f
Source: Oxford Economics; f: S&P Global Ratings forecast; End of Period - Q4 values. Data for all years is for fiscal years. For instance, 2016 means April 2016-March 2017.
APAC Economic Snapshots
spglobal.com/ratings November 2018 12
Indonesia
State Of Play
Outlook
Risks
GDP Growth Edged Lower In Q3
Source: CEIC.
Current Account Deficit Broadened In Q3
Source: CEIC.
(4)
(2)
0
2
4
6
8
Q3'18Q1'18Q3'17Q1'17Q3'16Q1'16Q3'15
(Co
ntr
ibu
tio
n t
o %
y/y
G
DP
gro
wth
)
PCE GCE GFCF
Change in Stocks Net Exports GDP
(20)
(15)
(10)
(5)
0
5
10
Q3'18Q1'18Q3'17Q1'17Q3'16Q1'16Q3'15
(US
$ b
n)
CA: Non-Oil&Gas CA: OilCA: Gas CA: OthersCurrent Account Balance
APAC Economic Snapshots
spglobal.com/ratings November 2018 13
Indonesia Economic Data And Forecast Summary
Selected Economic Indicators
Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18
3.6 3.3 3.4 3.2 3.1 3.2 3.2 2.9 3.2
3.1 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.9
19.6 8.6 9.6 13.1 11.3 19.7 4.5 2.4 3.7
40.2 4.1 17.8 27.0 31.7 22.9 16.3 (11.6) 0.1
23.8 27.9 35.2 28.2 12.8 31.7 24.5 14.2 23.7
1,001 (756.0) (1,625) (1,454) 1,707 (2,007) (944.2) 314.0 (1,820)
6.4 8.5 6.5 1.9 (9.8) 1.3 1.4 1.5
2.2 (1.8) 4.1 8.3 2.3 2.9 6.1 4.8 3.9
Source: CEIC.
Real GDP Components, Fiscal Position, And Balance Of Payments
2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2017 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2018 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3
5.1 5.3 5.2
4.9 5.1 5.0
7.9 5.9 7.0
(5.0) (1.8) (2.2) (4.6) (4.6) (5.9) (5.6) (8.0) (8.8)
2,283 3,120 4,088 3,550 3,192 996.5 314.4 (1,372) (2,637)
Source: CEIC.
S&P Global Ratings Economic Outlook
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018f 2019f 2020f 2021f
5.6 5.0 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.5 5.6
6.4 6.4 6.4 3.5 3.8 3.3 3.7 3.5 3.5
5.9 5.8 6.0 5.5 5.4 5.0 5.0 5.1 4.8
5.2 6.3 6.3 5.3 4.6 5.0 5.8 4.9 4.5
6.1 6.4 6.3 4.8 4.3 5.8 5.8 4.5 4.5
10,420 11,850 13,394 13,304 13,379 13,793 13,693 13,536
11,552 12,252 13,769 13,259 13,534 13,786 13,649 13,445
Source: Oxford Economics; f: S&P Global Ratings forecast; End of Period - Q4 values.
APAC Economic Snapshots
spglobal.com/ratings November 2018 14
Japan
State Of Play
Outlook
Risks
GDP Growth Fell In Q3 Due To Disruptions
Source: CEIC.
Natural Disasters Also Affected Other Indicators
Source: CEIC.
(1)
0
1
2
Q3.18Q1.18Q3.17Q1.17Q3.16Q1.16Q3.15
(Co
ntr
ibu
tio
ns t
o q
/q S
A G
DP
gro
wth
)
PCE Private Res.Inv. Priv. non-RI
GCE Govt. Inv. Priv. Stk
Pub.Stk Net Exports GDP q/q sa
(4)
(2)
0
2
4
6
8
Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17 Jan-18 May-18 Sep-18
(%, y/
y)
Industrial Output Retail Sales
APAC Economic Snapshots
spglobal.com/ratings November 2018 15
Japan Economic Data And Forecast Summary
Selected Economic Indicators
Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18
0.2 1.3 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.3 1.2
0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.0
4.9 16.3 10.2 10.6 7.6 4.7 5.5 (2.5) 8.4
15.9 35.5 13.4 16.6 11.9 12.8 10.9 (2.8) 9.2
9.5 11.7 8.4 16.7 3.4 15.6 14.3 5.7 20.1
5.9 3.2 7.5 5.8 (5.3) 6.5 (2.1) (4.0) 1.2
5.7 2.9 2.6 4.2 (0.9) 2.2 0.2 (2.9)
(0.3) 1.5 1.5 0.6 1.7 1.5 2.8 2.3
19.4 5.3 17.6 17.2 10.9 18.0 16.6 16.3
0.0 2.0 (1.3) (1.4) (1.2) 0.4 2.8 (0.5)
Source: CEIC.
Real GDP components, fiscal position, and balance of payments
2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2017 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2018 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3
(1.1) 3.0 (1.2)
(0.9) 2.6 (0.5)
0.1 0.8 0.7
0.9 2.7 1.9 5.7 1.0 (0.6) 0.5 7.2 (1.9)
Source: CEIC.
S&P Global Ratings Economic Outlook
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018f 2019f 2020f 2021f
2.0 0.3 1.4 1.0 1.7 1.0 1.2 0.2 1.4
0.3 2.8 0.8 (0.1) 0.5 0.8 1.1 2.0 1.9
4.0 3.6 3.4 3.1 2.8 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.6
0.08 0.07 0.07 (0.03) (0.05) (0.06) (0.06) (0.06) (0.06)
0.07 0.06 0.08 (0.04) (0.04) (0.06) (0.06) (0.06) (0.06)
97.6 105.9 121.0 108.8 112.1 109.7 110.6 111.7
100.4 114.6 121.4 109.5 112.9 110.5 110.7 112.1
Source: Oxford Economics; f: S&P Global Ratings forecast; End of Period - Q4 values.
APAC Economic Snapshots
spglobal.com/ratings November 2018 16
(4)
(2)
0
2
4
6
8
10
(Co
ntr
ibu
tio
ns t
o %
, y/
y G
DP
g
row
th)
PCE GCE GFCF
Change in Stocks Net Exports GDP
(3)
(2)
(1)
0
1
2
3
4
(30)
(20)
(10)
0
10
20
30
40
Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17 Jan-18 May-18 Sep-18
(US
D b
illio
n)
(%, y/
y)
Trade Balance Exports (LHS) Imports (LHS)
Malaysia
State Of Play
Outlook
Risks
GDP Growth Eased To A Seven Quarter Low In Q3
Source: CEIC.
Trade Surplus Rose As Import Growth Slowed
Source: CEIC.
APAC Economic Snapshots
spglobal.com/ratings November 2018 17
Malaysia Economic Data And Forecast Summary
Selected Economic Indicators
Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18
4.2 3.5 1.3 1.4 1.8 0.8 0.9 0.2 0.3
11.4 14.6 15.9 28.6 13.0 15.5 15.9 4.4 8.5
11.0 17.7 2.1 18.2 31.9 16.6 1.7 6.7 14.1
12.4 18.0 2.7 23.8 10.6 24.0 16.8 16.4 (1.0)
1,951 1,806 3,765 3,351 2,050 1,501 2,057 394.2 3,688
4.8 2.9 3.1 4.6 3.0 1.1 2.6 2.2 2.3
2.4 (4.1) 0.0 1.8 (0.5) (9.4) (5.9) (4.6) (6.2)
3.5 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.3
Source: CEIC.
Real GDP Components, Fiscal Position, And Balance Of Payments
2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2017 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2018 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3
5.4 4.5 4.4
6.9 8.0 9.0
0.1 2.2 3.2
1,898 2,967 1,077 2,025 3,005 3,347 3,820 990.4 924.6
9.0 9.1 10.1 13.5 12.2 10.4 9.2 9.8 12.9
Source: CEIC.
S&P Global Ratings Economic Outlook
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018f 2019f 2020f 2021f
4.7 6.0 5.1 4.2 5.9 5.1 5.0 4.8 4.7
2.1 3.1 2.1 2.1 3.8 1.3 2.1 2.3 2.2
3.1 2.9 3.2 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.4
3.0 3.1 3.3 3.1 3.0 3.2 3.3 3.7 3.8
3.0 3.3 3.3 3.0 3.0 3.3 3.5 3.8 3.8
3.2 3.3 3.9 4.1 4.3 4.0 4.0 4.0
3.2 3.4 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.1 4.0 4.0
Source: Oxford Economics; f: S&P Global Ratings forecast; End of Period - Q4 values.
APAC Economic Snapshots
spglobal.com/ratings November 2018 18
Philippines
State Of Play
Outlook
Risks
GDP Growth Eased In Q3, Slowest In Three Years
Source: CEIC.
Headline Inflation Remained At 6.7% y/y In October
Source: CEIC.
(2.0)
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Oct-16 Feb-17 Jun-17 Oct-17 Feb-18 Jun-18 Oct-18
(%, y/
y)
CPI Food Housing Transport
(8)
(5)
(2)
1
4
7
10
13
Q3.18Q1.18Q3.17Q1.17Q3.16Q1.16Q3.15(C
on
trib
utio
ns t
o %
y/y
G
DP
g
ro
wth
)
PCE GCE GFCF
Change in Stocks Net Exports GDP
APAC Economic Snapshots
spglobal.com/ratings November 2018 19
Philippines Economic Data And Forecast Summary
Selected Economic Indicators
Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18
3.1 3.4 4.5 4.6 5.2 5.7 6.4 6.7 6.7
3.2 3.9 5.0 5.0 5.4
17.4 (4.0) (4.9) (1.8) 2.8 0.3 3.4 (2.6)
28.6 2.4 5.5 4.9 14.0 6.1 8.9 4.2
17.0 7.7 23.1 12.6 24.2 31.6 11.0 26.1
(2.6) (3.2) (3.5) (3.7) (3.2) (3.5) (3.5) (3.9)
2.3 2.4 2.3 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.2
(6.0) 10.9 22.6 15.3 12.0 12.1 8.6 3.7
Source: CEIC.
Real GDP Components, Fiscal Position, And Balance Of Payments
2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2017 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2018 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3
6.6 6.2 6.1
5.7 5.9 5.2
12.4 21.5 16.7
(90.6) (565.6) (289.4) 156.8 1100.4 (3130.4) (155.4) (2931.3)
Source: CEIC.
S&P Global Ratings Economic Outlook
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018f 2019f 2020f 2021f
7.1 6.1 6.1 6.9 6.7 6.5 6.6 6.8 6.7
2.6 3.6 0.7 1.3 2.9 5.1 3.8 3.5 3.4
7.1 6.8 6.3 5.5 5.7 5.2 5.1 4.9 4.1
3.5 3.7 4.0 3.4 3.0 3.5 4.4 4.5 4.5
3.5 4.0 4.0 3.0 3.0 4.0 4.5 4.5 4.5
42.4 44.4 45.5 47.5 50.4 52.8 53.5 53.1
43.6 44.8 46.9 49.1 50.9 53.7 53.4 52.7
Source: Oxford Economics; f: S&P Global Ratings forecast; End of Period - Q4 values.
APAC Economic Snapshots
spglobal.com/ratings November 2018 20
Singapore
State Of Play
Outlook
Risks
MAS Tightened Monetary Policy Again In October
Source: CEIC.
Faster NODX In October Led By Non-Electronics
Source: CEIC.
110
111
112
113
114
(1)
0
1
2
3
Oct-16 Feb-17 Jun-17 Oct-17 Feb-18 Jun-18 Oct-18
(2010=
100)
(%, y/
y)
CPI inflation MAS Core Inflation NEER (RHS)
(30)
(15)
0
15
30
45
Oct-16 Feb-17 Jun-17 Oct-17 Feb-18 Jun-18 Oct-18
NODX (%, y/y) NODX (3m/3m saar)
APAC Economic Snapshots
spglobal.com/ratings November 2018 21
Singapore Economic Data And Forecast Summary
Selected Economic Indicators
Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18
0.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7
1.5 1.4 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.9 1.9 1.8
12.4 18.0 16.9 14.6 10.8 14.0 12.8 9.6 18.7
22.8 22.0 18.8 20.3 3.5 11.6 4.4 6.4 6.7
18.1 13.2 18.1 14.1 15.7 22.6 12.5 14.1 18.1
3.2 4.3 4.6 4.1 3.4 2.4 4.9 3.2 4.0
15.3 18.3 11.0 13.0 8.4 7.3 3.7 (0.2)
0.2 (7.7) 1.0 0.2 1.9 (2.6) (0.4) 1.9
Real GDP Components, Fiscal Position, And Balance Of Payments
2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2017 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2018 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3
4.5 3.9 2.6
3.4 3.2
8.7 2.2
(3.1) (4.1) (3.2) (3.5) (2.7) 2.2 (0.9) 3.3
18.1 13.1 14.9 14.6 18.4 13.1 16.0 17.1
Source: CEIC.
S&P Global Ratings Economic Outlook
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018f 2019f 2020f 2021f
5.1 3.9 2.2 2.4 3.6 3.2 3.0 2.7 2.7
2.4 1.0 (0.5) (0.5) 0.6 0.6 1.6 1.9 2.0
1.9 2.0 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9
1.25 1.27 1.37 1.38 1.38 1.35 1.35 1.33
1.25 1.29 1.41 1.41 1.35 1.37 1.34 1.33
Source: Oxford Economics; f: S&P Global Ratings forecast; End of Period - Q4 values.
APAC Economic Snapshots
spglobal.com/ratings November 2018 22
South Korea
State Of Play
Outlook
Risks
GDP Growth Remained Steady In Q3
Source: CEIC.
Unemployment Rate Eased Further In October
Source: CEIC.
(3)
(2)
(1)
0
1
2
3
Q3.18Q1.18Q3.17Q1.17Q3.16Q1.16Q3.15(C
on
trib
utio
n t
o S
A q
/q G
DP
g
ro
wth
)
PCE GCE GFCF
Changes in Inventories Net Exports GDP
(180)
(90)
0
90
180
270
360
(3.0)
(1.5)
0.0
1.5
3.0
4.5
6.0
Oct-16 Feb-17 Jun-17 Oct-17 Feb-18 Jun-18 Oct-18
(Th
ou
san
d P
ers
on
s)
(%)
Change in Employment (RHS) Unemployment Rate (LHS)
APAC Economic Snapshots
spglobal.com/ratings November 2018 23
South Korea Economic Data And Forecast Summary
Selected Economic Indicators
Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18
1.8 1.0 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.9 2.0
1.3 1.1 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 0.9 1.2 1.1
6.7 22.3 (1.9) 12.8 (0.3) 6.1 8.7 (8.2) 22.7
47.2 40.5 23.9 26.8 23.2 24.2 24.1 14.8 15.4
8.0 21.6 14.9 13.0 11.0 16.4 9.4 (1.6) 28.1
6.9 3.5 6.2 6.3 6.1 6.9 6.8 9.6 6.5
(3.0) 4.2 1.9 1.7 0.2 1.4 1.6 (4.8)
1.0 2.0 6.7 5.9 5.5 7.1 7.9 2.9
Source: CEIC.
Real GDP Components, Fiscal Position, And Balance Of Payments
2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2017 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2018 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3
2.8 2.8 2.0
3.5 2.8 2.6
3.7 (1.3) (6.5)
22.6 22.7 19.2 16.5 25.6 17.2 11.8 17.8 28.0
19.4 21.8 15.6 29.2 30.2 20.1 12.7 18.6 23.3
6.3 6.4
Source: CEIC.
S&P Global Ratings Economic Outlook
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018f 2019f 2020f 2021f
2.9 3.3 2.8 2.9 3.1 2.6 2.5 2.7 2.5
1.3 1.3 0.7 1.0 1.9 1.6 2.0 1.7 1.9
3.1 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.6 3.4
2.6 2.4 1.7 1.4 1.3 1.6 1.9 2.0 2.0
2.5 2.0 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.8 2.0 2.0 2.0
1095.0 1052.8 1131.0 1160.8 1131.0 1097.4 1112.4 1106.3
1062.1 1086.6 1157.5 1156.4 1107.5 1118.0 1109.1 1104.7
Source: Oxford Economics; f: S&P Global Ratings forecast; End of Period - Q4 values.
APAC Economic Snapshots
spglobal.com/ratings November 2018 24
Taiwan
State of Play
Outlook
Risks
GDP Growth Slowed To Five-Quarter Low in Q3
Source: CEIC.
Trade Balance Narrowed; Trade Flows Up
Source: CEIC.
(4)
0
4
8
12
16
Q3'18Q2'18
(%, y/
y)
GDP PCE GCE GFCF Exports Imports
(3)
0
3
6
9
(15)
0
15
30
45
Oct-16 Feb-17 Jun-17 Oct-17 Feb-18 Jun-18 Oct-18
(US
D b
illio
n)
(%, y/
y)
Trade Balance (RHS) Exports Imports
APAC Economic Snapshots
spglobal.com/ratings November 2018 25
Taiwan Economic Data And Forecast Summary
Selected Economic Indicators
Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18
(0.3) 0.9 2.0 1.8 1.4 1.8 1.5 1.7 1.2
1.1 0.8 1.3 1.1 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.2 0.7
3.0 15.3 10.0 14.2 9.4 4.7 1.9 2.6 7.3
7.1 12.4 7.5 14.0 2.3 4.9 1.1 (0.4) 2.8
(0.1) 22.0 4.9 12.0 15.4 20.3 7.8 13.9 17.6
5.3 2.7 4.2 4.4 5.2 2.3 4.5 4.3 3.4
2.7 9.4 8.8 7.6 0.5 4.7 1.1 1.5
4.9 4.2 4.7 5.2 5.7 4.8 4.6 4.9
3.2 (4.2) 3.6 5.3 4.9 3.6 0.6 2.8
Source: CEIC.
Real GDP Components, Fiscal Position, And Balance Of Payments
2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2017 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2018 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3
3.1 3.3 2.3
2.8 2.6
0.5 0.1
16.6 19.6 18.2 17.3 21.7 25.6 19.4 17.8
12.0 13.6 10.8 12.1 17.8 17.3 11.8 13.8 11.1
Source: CEIC.
S&P Global Ratings Economic Outlook
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018f 2019f 2020f 2021f
2.2 4.0 0.8 1.4 2.9 3.1 2.5 2.3 2.5
0.8 1.2 (0.3) 1.4 0.6 1.6 1.3 1.4 1.1
4.2 4.0 3.8 3.9 3.8 3.5 3.4 3.1 3.1
1.875 1.875 1.837 1.466 1.375 1.406 1.594 1.625 1.625
1.875 1.875 1.731 1.375 1.375 1.500 1.625 1.625 1.625
29.8 30.4 31.9 32.3 30.4 30.1 30.4 30.2
29.6 30.9 32.8 31.8 30.1 30.5 30.4 30.0
Source: Oxford Economics; f: S&P Global Ratings forecast; End of Period - Q4 values.
APAC Economic Snapshots
spglobal.com/ratings November 2018 26
Thailand
State Of Play
Outlook
Risks
GDP Growth Led By Domestic Demand In Q3
Source: CEIC.
Visitor Arrivals Remain Weak; Retail Sales Up
Source: CEIC.
(4)
(2)
0
2
4
6
(10)
(5)
0
5
10
15
Q3'18Q1'18Q3'17Q1'17Q3'16Q1'16Q3'15
(%, y/
y)
(Co
nti
bu
tio
n t
o G
DP
y/y
G
row
th)
PCE GCE
GFCF Change in Inventories
Net Exports GDP (RHS)
(5)
0
5
10
15
20
25
Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18
(% y
/y)
Visitor Arrivals: Excluding Overseas Thai Retail Sales
APAC Economic Snapshots
spglobal.com/ratings November 2018 27
Thailand Economic Data And Forecast Summary
Selected Economic Indicators
Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18
0.9 0.7 1.1 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.3 1.2
0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.7
12.7 17.6 12.4 11.4 8.2 8.3 6.7 (5.2)
9.3 12.3 14.9 (0.1) 4.6 (2.3) 5.6 0.1
13.2 24.5 21.3 11.7 10.8 10.5 22.8 9.9
44.2 52.7 69.8 25.0 59.7 64.4 37.9 50.5
204.0 (119.2) (1,283) 1,204 1,578 (516.0) (588.1) 487.2
1.0 4.7 3.1 2.9 5.0 4.9 0.8 (2.6)
5.8 9.9 7.6 6.1 7.1 15.5 17.7
76.7 80.0 80.9 80.1 81.3 82.2 83.2 82.3 81.3
Source: CEIC.
Real GDP components, fiscal position, and balance of payments
2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2017 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2018 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3
4.9 4.6 3.3
3.7 4.5 5.0
1.9 2.0 2.1
1.0 2.1 1.7 0.3 1.2 0.3 3.4 3.7 3.9
11.7 10.7 15.2 7.8 14.9 12.4 15.1 6.7 4.2
Source: CEIC.
S&P Global Ratings Economic Outlook
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018f 2019f 2020f 2021f
2.7 1.0 3.0 3.3 3.9 4.4 4.1 3.9 3.9
2.2 1.9 (0.9) 0.2 0.7 1.2 1.8 2.0 2.4
0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.3
2.58 2.05 1.63 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.59 1.84 2.09
2.41 2.00 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.75 2.00 2.25
30.7 32.5 34.2 35.3 33.9 32.1 32.3 31.9
31.7 32.7 35.8 35.4 32.9 32.0 32.1 31.7
Source: Oxford Economics; f: S&P Global Ratings forecast; End of Period - Q4 values.
APAC Economic Snapshots
spglobal.com/ratings November 2018 28
Vietnam
State of Play
Outlook
Risks
Retail Sales Growth Steady; IP Growth Eased
Source: CEIC.
Trade Surplus Narrowed; Export growth modest
Source: CEIC.
(10)
(5)
0
5
10
15
20
25
Oct-16 Feb-17 Jun-17 Oct-17 Feb-18 Jun-18 Oct-18
(% y
/y)
Retail Sales Industrial Production
(3.0)
(1.5)
0.0
1.5
3.0
4.5
6.0
(40)
(20)
0
20
40
60
80
100
Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18
(US
D b
illio
n)
(% y
/y)
Trade Balance (RHS) Exports
Phones & Spare Parts Imports
Computer & Electronic Parts
APAC Economic Snapshots
spglobal.com/ratings November 2018 29
Vietnam Economic Data And Forecast Summary
Selected Economic Indicators
Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18
3.0 2.7 2.8 3.9 4.7 4.5 4.0 4.0 3.9
1.3 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7
32.3 40.2 4.5 11.3 11.3 14.8 18.5 9.5 10.8
26.8 48.3 9.2 23.2 18.5 19.6 19.1 9.6 11.9
14.9 52.1 (1.1) 12.1 4.9 20.2 16.4 6.4 19.4
2112.2 180.8 1,163 (814.7) 799.2 (634.6) 2197 1,612 769.6
17.0 20.2 6.3 10.1 12.3 14.3 11.3 9.1 7.7
19.4 14.0 14.4 14.1 13.8 13.4
10.7 9.5 9.9 10.1 10.7 11.1 11.2 11.3 11.4
Source: CEIC.
Real GDP Components, Fiscal Position, And Balance Of Payments
2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2017 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2018 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3
7.4 7.1 7.0
3,934 1,244
2,732 1,147 3,175
Source: CEIC.
S&P Global Ratings Economic Outlook
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018f 2019f 2020f 2021f
Source: S&P Global Ratings.
APAC Economic Snapshots
spglobal.com/ratings November 2018 30
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