Economic Prosperity and Resilience in the New Era of Biocapacity Constraints
42
Economic Prosperity and Resilience In the New Era of Biocapacity Constraints Dr. Mathis Wackernagel May 26, 2011 – UNDP Climate Change and Development
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Dr. Mathis Wackernagel, Global Footprint Network, UNDP Climate Change and Development, May 26, 2011
Transcript of Economic Prosperity and Resilience in the New Era of Biocapacity Constraints
Economic Prosperity and Resilience
In the New Era of Biocapacity Constraints
Dr. Mathis Wackernagel
May 26, 2011 – UNDP Climate Change and Development
Biocapacity Creditors and Biocapacity Debtors
Biocapacity Creditors and Biocapacity Debtors
Global Footprint--------------------------- = 1.5Global Biocapacity
Biocapacity Creditors and Biocapacity Debtors
The Ecological Footprint
CARBON footprint
Biocapacity:How much
bioproductive area is available to us?
Ecological Footprint:How much bioproductive
area do we demand?
Accounting Framework for
Ecological Services
The Basic Equation
Amount per year
Area = -------------------------
Yield
Translate area from ha into global ha…
Biocapacity
per person
Ecological Footprint
Ecological Footprint
Biocapacity
per person
Italy
Italy’s Biocapacity Deficit
Italy’s relative GDP per
capita (compared to
World)
EITHER: ~ 2°C 450 ppm?
OR: 1700 ppm
Tragedy of the Commons?
Yes, but…
X350 ppm?
A special report on debt
Re: A better way
The rich world should worry about growth-promoting reforms
more than short-term fiscal austerity
Ecological Creditors and Ecological Debtors in Europe
Ecological Footprint and Biocapacity PER CAPITA,1961-2005
HU
DKATDE
ES
RO
SECH
IT
PT
NL
FR
PO
GR
RU
BE
FI
UK
IR
SK
CZ
BY
RS UA
Mathis’ life (1962 – onwards)
Annual deficit adds up to a
global biocapacity debt
UN’s Most Moderate ScenarioMathis’ life
Biocapacity Debt
Preparing for resource
constraints is in the most direct
self-interest of cities and
countries. (much more so than for
individuals or companies…)
Ecological Footprint
per person
Biocapacity per person
Deficit
ITALY
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
Cropland Grazing Land Forest Land Fishing
Grounds
Carbon
Uptake Land
Built-up Land
gh
a p
er
ca
pit
a
Food Housing
Mobility Goods
Services Government
GFC Other
2007
/=
PER CAPITA
ECOLOGICAL
FOOTPRINT
(DEMAND)
PER CAPITA
CONSUMPTIONRESOURCE
EFFICIENCY
DIFFERENCE BETW.
BIOCAPACITY
DEMAND AND
BIOCAP. SUPPLY
PER CAPITA
BIOCAPACITY
(SUPPLY)xAREA
BIO-
PRODUCTIVITY
/POPULATION =
Five Factors
MRIO (GTAP7 based)covering 93 countries (+ 20 regions)
• Consumption – break down national total
into 59 consumption categories
• Import – which countries do these 59 cats
come from?
• Export – in which countries do exports
get consumed?
NEW!
Consumption Footprint for
Cropland in gha: Switzerland GFCF HH GOV TOTAL
Raw milk 9,701 249,538 64 259,303
Wool, silk-worm cocoons 397 5,571 4 5,972
Forestry 155 3,570 18 3,742
Fishing 23 2,553 2 2,579
Coal 0 1 0 1
Oil 0 0 0 0
Gas 0 776 0 776
Minerals nec 10 1,760 3 1,773
Bovine meat products 10 91,870 367 92,248
Meat products nec 20 277,257 3,216 280,493
Vegetable oils and fats 24 266,008 3,404 269,436
Dairy products 26 331,746 81 331,853
Processed rice 1 29,735 61 29,797
Sugar 7 18,072 73 18,153
Food products nec 112 561,281 469 561,862
Beverages and tobacco products 31 367,213 65 367,308
Textiles 2,350 121,539 767 124,656
Wearing apparel 187 391,542 142 391,870
Leather products 2 127,449 82 127,533
Wood products 454 14,732 1 15,187
Measuring “sustainable development”
development HDI
Su
sta
inab
le (
fits
on
on
e p
lan
et?
)
HDI
Fo
otp
rin
t/B
ioca
p.
1
1
HDI
Fo
otp
rin
t/B
ioca
p.
1
Current
position
Goal
1
HDI
Fo
otp
rin
t/B
ioca
p.
1
SD path
1
HDI
Fo
otp
rin
t/B
ioca
p.
1SD path
1
P1mitigation
Δ HDI * p
SDROI = ––––––––––
Inv + Mit
How close are we today to attaining global sustainability?
Conventional
belief
nati
on
al
bio
ca
pacit
y
Collapse
Sustainable
path
we’re working on national govs
offical national gov Footprint studies
(2011)
WBCSD
UNDP
EP and EC
UNEP Green Econ.
SEEA (?)
Summary
• The planet has a budget. Do you know how much biocapacity you have? and how much you use?
• Blindness costs lives & opportunities.
• Link to economic stability and competitiveness
WBCSD Vision 2050 - Who’s in?
39WBCSD Vision 2050
15
Sustainability wedges for ending overshoot by 2050 (WBCSD)
Ecological Creditors and Ecological Debtors in Africa
Ecological Footprint and Biocapacity PER CAPITA,1961-2005
MW
CGAOAlge.
CI
SD
ZMUG
ML
NE
MG
ET
MZ
KE
SN
BF
GH
ZA
MA
EG
NG
CM
TZ ZW
Shrinking
Biocapacity
Credit
Increasing
Ecological
and Social
Instability
