Economic policy surveillance in the European Union The Annual Growth Survey 2015 and the Alert...
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Transcript of Economic policy surveillance in the European Union The Annual Growth Survey 2015 and the Alert...
Economic policy surveillance in the European Union
The Annual Growth Survey 2015 and the Alert Mechanism Report 2015
Servaas DEROOSE
Deputy Director-GeneralEuropean Commission, DG Economic and Financial Affairs
Conference "European Semester: Presentation of the New 2015 Cycle"Zagreb, 10 December 2014
Autumn forecast
Winter forecast
Spring forecast
15 October
In-Depth Reviews
May/June
November
Annual Growth Survey
15 April
Stability/Convergence Programmes National Reform
ProgrammesCountry-Specific
Recommendations
Alert Mechanism Report
The European Surveillance Cycle
Commission's opinions on Draft Budgetary Plans
Euro-area Member States:Draft Budgetary Plans
2
The 2015 Annual Growth Survey: A new momentum for jobs, growth and investment
3
INVESTMENT
FISCAL RESPONSIBILITY
STRUCTURAL REFORMS
The investment gap in the EU is sizeable
4
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
3,039
2,5272,543
2,528
2,567
2,6402,717
3,021
2,657
2,714
2,659 2,647
230
370
Gap compared to sustainable trend
2,869
"Sustainable" trend of investment assuming a share in GDP of 21-22%
2,416
2,606
Real gross fixed capital formation EU-28, in 2013 prices, EUR bn
Source: European Commission
Croatia's investment outlook remains unfavourable
5
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 201318
20
22
24
26
28
30
Peer countries (average of BG, CZ, HU, PL, RO, SI, SK)
EU
Croatia
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
GFCF
Changes in inven-tories
Net exports
GDP growth
Cons.
Nominal investment (GFCF, % of GDP) Real growth and contributions between 2008 and 2013, Croatia (%)
Source: European Commission Source: European Commission
The Juncker Commission's "Investment Plan for Europe"
6
Strong boost to strategic investments Better access to investment finance
for SMEs and mid-cap companies Strategic use of EU budget Flexibility in the Pact for Member States
contributing to the new Fund Better use of the European Structural
and Investment Funds
MOBILISING FINANCE FOR INVESTMENT
Project pipeline preparation and selection Technical assistance at all levels Strong cooperation between National
Promotional Banks and the EIB Follow-up at global, EU, national and regional
level, including outreach activities
MAKING FINANCE REACH THE REAL ECONOMY
Predictability and quality of regulation Quality of national expenditure, tax systems and
public administration New sources of long-term financing
for the economy Removing non-financial, regulatory barriers in key
sectors within our single market
IMPROVED INVESTMENT ENVIRONMENT
The new European Fund for Strategic Investments (EFSI)
7
EU guarantee
EUR 16 bn*
EUR 16 bn
x 15
Long-term investments circa EUR 240 bn
SMEs and mid-cap firmscirca EUR 75 bn
EUR 5 bn
European Fund for Strategic InvestmentsEUR 21 bn (initially)
Total extra over 2015-17:circa EUR 315 bn**
EUR 5 bn
Possible other public and private
contributions
* 50% guarantee = EUR 8 bn from Connecting Europe Facility (3.3), Horizon 2020 (2.7) and budget margin (2)
** Net of the initial EU contributions used as guarantee: EUR 307 bn
Renewed commitment to complementary structural reforms in the EU
8
Making the Single Market in goods & services a priority
The Digital Single Market: essential for jobs, growth and innovation
A resilient Energy Union with a forward-looking climate change policy
Ensuring an EU regulatory framework supportive of jobs, growth & investment
AT EU LEVEL AT MEMBER STATE LEVEL
Improving labour market dynamics Pursuing pension reforms Modernising social protection Improving the flexibility of
product & services markets Creating better conditions for
business investment Strengthening the quality of R&D
investment Boosting the efficiency of public
administration
Germany France Croatia
• Tax and SSC reduction for low-wage earners
• Cost-effectiveness of renewable energy
• Competition in services & railway markets
• EU-wide public procurement• Retail business restrictions
• Labour cost reduction• Labour market rigidity, ALMP &
vocational training• Efficiency of innovation • Professional services & business
restrictions• Competition in network industries
• Governance of state-owned enterprises
• Efficiency of public administration & EU funds
• Educational outcomes• Employment of young & old,
labour market & wage setting• Property tax base, tax
expenditure & compliance• Portfolio screening of banks
Italy Spain Ireland
• Efficiency of public administration• Labour market and wage setting• Youth employment & vocational
training• Tax shift and compliance• Competition & regulatory
framework• Banking sector resilience & access
to finance
• Labour market segmentation & ALMP
• Youth employment & vocational training
• Market unity & professional services
• Efficiency of public administration• Savings banks & access to finance
• Bank restructuring, NPLs & access to finance
• Long-term & youth unemployment, skill mismatches
• Labour taxes, tax base on property, consumption & environment
• Financial management in healthcare
Country-specific recommendations reflect structural reform priorities
9
Source: European Commission
Synthetic indicator of progress on implementation of 2012 and 2013 CSRs(100 = full implementation score)
The implementation of the CSRs has been mixed so far
10
0
12.5
25
37.5
50
62.5
75
87.5
100
CY BG CZ LU IT HU SK BE SI DE RO MT FR SE LT UK PL AT LV EE DK NL ES FI
2012 CSRs 2013 CSRs EU average (2012 and 2013 CSRs)
Nopr
ogre
ssLim
ited
prog
ress
Som
e pr
ogre
ssSu
bsta
ntial
prog
ress
Fully
impl
.
Fiscal responsibility remains key as government debt is high and fiscal adjustment needs are large
S1 indicator: required fiscal adjustment by 2020 to reach a 60%
debt-to-GDP ratio in 2030
Government debt(% of GDP)
Structural balance and medium-term objectives, 2014
(% of GDP)
11Source: European Commission
-5
-3
-1
1
3
5
7
9
Autumn 2010Autumn 2014
EE BG LV LT CZ SK NL DE HR AT FR BE IE IT0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2009 2014-2009
UK IE FR MT BE ES LT LV PT FI CY CZ DK LU
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
structural deficit MTO
Alert MechanismReport (AMR)
(Scoreboard and thresholds)
November 2014
Programme countriestheir own enhanced
surveillance
No problemProcedure stops
In-Depth Reviews (IDRs)
Commission prepares in-depth country reviews,
using a wide set of indicators and analytical tools
March 2015
No problemProcedure stops
ImbalancesRecommendations integrated
under European SemesterMay 2015
Excessive imbalancesRecommendations and Specific Monitoring or Corrective Action Plan
May 2015 and continuous monitoring
12
The Macroeconomic Imbalances Procedure (MIP) at a glance
The scope of the AMR's scoreboard
+ auxiliary indicators and auxiliary social indicators (no thresholds)
13
External positions: current accounts, net international investment positions
Competitiveness developments : real effective exchange rates, unit labour costs
Export performance: export market shares
Private sector indebtedness: credit, debt
Public sector indebtedness
Assets markets: housing
Financial sector developments: financial sector liabilities
Unemployment
EXTERNAL IMBALANCES
INTERNAL IMBALANCES
14
16 Member States will be analysed in-depth
15
AMR points to large external liabilities and worsening export market shares in Croatia
UK
SE
DK
CZ LT RO PL
HR
BG
HU
EU
28
Non Euro Area
-120
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
602008 2013 2015MIP threshold
Source: European Commission. Note: 2015 estimated using net lending/borrowing forecasts. DK, BG, HR and EU28 follow ESA95. PL: break in series in 2013.
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
0.00
0.03
0.05
0.08
0.10
0.13
0.15
Real GDP growthEmploymentExport market share, goods and services (rhs)
An
nu
al g
row
th r
ate
(%)
%
Net International Investment Positions,2008, 2013 and 2015 (projection), non-EA
countries, % of GDP
Export market shares, employment and GDP growth, 2004-2013, Croatia
Source: European Commission
2012 2013 2014Luxembourg
Malta
Denmark
Belgium
Bulgaria
Finland
Germany
Netherlands
Sweden
United Kingdom
France
Hungary
Ireland
Spain
Croatia
Italy
Slovenia
Cyprus
Greece
Romania
IDR concludes no imbalance
IDR concludes the presence of an imbalance
IDR concludes the presence of (very) serious imbalance and that imbalances requiring decisive policy action or specific monitoring
IDR concludes an excessive imbalance
programme (not subject to MIP)
16
Macro imbalances evolve over time
The 2014 In-Depth Review highlighted five major risks and imbalances for Croatia
External rebalancing is beset by important risks pending the reduction of Croatia's high foreign liabilities. Low competitiveness eroded export market shares even before the crisis.
Weaknesses in the labour market and in the wider business environment have amplified the impact of the crisis and hamper adjustment towards stronger, more sustainable growth and employment.
The non-financial private sector, (esp. non-financial corporations), entered the crisis highly leveraged after rapid credit growth in the preceding years.
The largely foreign-owned banking system has shown resilience. Still, the weak economy has started to interact with the banking sector, and non-performing loans to corporate borrowers have risen to high levels.
Pro-cyclical fiscal policies have led to sustained pressure on the general government deficit and debt.
Low growth before the crisis, delayed recovery and subdued growth outlook. Higher growth and employment, facilitated by competitiveness, would ease the debt burden.
External and internal imbalances reflected in continued, elevated financial market pressure.
Competitiveness
1
Adjustment capacity
2
De-leveraging
3
Financial stability
4
Public finances
5
17
Specific MIP monitoring in Croatia reveals highly uneven progress since June Progress on fiscal structural reforms piecemeal, facing implementation risks Only limited steps to align budgetary projections to ESA standards Expenditure review preparation in motion but no implementation timeframe Recurrent property tax being prepared but timing unclear Measures to improve pension sustainability yet to be outlined Limited ambition of measures to improve cost-effectiveness of health care
Progress in improving the functioning of the labour markets, labour law reform
Further measures to tackle obstacles to job creation still to be defined Plan for social benefit consolidation needs full political endorsement
Business climate likely to benefit from planned enhancements of early rescue framework and reform of regional state administration
Progress on removing para-fiscal levies slower than expected SOE governance improvements limited, restructuring behind plans Public admininstration and anti-corruption reforms risk being delayed
QUALITY AND SUSTAINABILITY OF PUBLIC FINANCES
LABOUR MARKET & EFFECTIVENESS OF SOCIAL PROTECTION
PROMOTING GROWTH & COMPETITIVE-NESS
18
Assessing the effectiveness of the economic governance framework
19
Step 1Backward-looking reviewNovember 2014
Step 2Specific proposals2015
Conclusions of Step 1
Six-pack/two-pack reforms have achieved deepening and widening of economic governance
Progress in fiscal consolidation and correcting macroeconomic imbalances
Room for improvement: complexity, overlapping, transparency
Need for better involvement of stakeholders and parliaments to improve legitimacy and accountability
Recent and next steps in the European Semester
20
November 2014
European Semester resumed with the AGS The AMR identified countries for in-depth review Draft Budgetary Plans were submitted and evaluated EDP implementation was assessed, following the
Autumn Forecast
Spring 2015
Commission publishes In-Depth Reviews (IDRs) Member States present their National Reform
Programmes and Stability/Convergence Programmes Commission proposes Country-Specific
Recommendations