Economic Overview of the Harrogate District

February 2015

Informing the district’s Economy Action Plan 2015-2020

The Harrogate district economy in numbers…

• Estimated 13,500 businesses

• 8,370 VAT registered enterprises

• 9,680 business units

• 95,000 jobs in total = 68,000 full time equivalent (FTE)

• £3.85 billion gross value added (GVA) in 2015

Residents of the Harrogate district…• 158,000 resident population

• The population of the district is projected to increase by 10,498 over 2012–2037, a 6.6% increase.

• In 2014, 34,500 (22%) of the district’s residents are over 65 years of age.

• Populations of main town settlements: Harrogate: 73,000, Ripon: 16,000, Knaresborough: 15,000, Boroughbridge: 3,200, Pateley Bridge: 2,700

Population Pyramid (2012)(Source: ONS)

0- 4 5- 9

10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84

85+

5 4 3 2 1 1 2 3 4 5

Percent

Age Class

0- 4 5- 9

10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84

85+

5 4 3 2 1 1 2 3 4 5

Percent

Age Class

Harrogate District England

Population Pyramid (2037)(Source: ONS)

Harrogate District England

0- 4 5- 9

10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84

85+

5 4 3 2 1 1 2 3 4 5

Percent

Age Class

0- 4 5- 9

10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84

85+

5 4 3 2 1 1 2 3 4 5

Percent

Age Class

The Harrogate District as a Visitor Destination

• A vibrant tourism offer and growing international profile following a successful Grand Départ!

• 5.4 million visitors a year (4.7 million day trippers).

• Visitors spend circa £300 million and support 7,500 jobs.

• 500 accommodation providers with over 15,000 bed spaces.

• Over 135 restaurants.

• A world class conference centre that attracted 230,000 people in 2013/14.

• An Entrepreneurial District – the highest business start-up rate in the region…

Business Start-Up Rate (per 10,000 head of population) (2008 – 2014)

(Source: Banksearch Consultancy)

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q42008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Harrogate District Leeds City Region

• High employment rate – lowest Job Seekers Allowance (JSA) claimant rate on record…

Job Seekers Allowance Claimants (% working age population) (January 2015)

(Source: Department for Work and Pensions)

Yorks

hire an

d Humber

Scarb

orough

Great B

ritain

Selby

Ryedale

North Yo

rkshire

Craven

Hamblet

on

Richmondsh

ire

Harroga

te Dist

rict

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0% 2.8%2.4%

2.0%

1.5%1.1% 1.1% 1.0% 0.9%

0.5% 0.5%

Chart Title

• Surplus of Jobs – 19,500 people travel into the Harrogate district on a workday from neighbouring local authorities, whilst 18,600 leave the district. Only Leeds sees more people arriving from the Harrogate district on a workday.

Travel to Work Flows (2011)(Source: ONS Census)

Ryedale

HambletonRichmondshire

Craven

BradfordLeeds

Selby

York

Scarborough

• Resident earnings - higher than average.

• Workplace earnings - lower than average.

Average Full-Time Gross Weekly Pay: By Residence and Workplace (2014)

(Source: ONS)

Residence Workplace Residence Workplace Residence WorkplaceHarrogate District Yorkshire & Humber Great Britain

£400.00

£420.00

£440.00

£460.00

£480.00

£500.00

£520.00

£540.00

£486.20

£447.60

£479.00 £479.10

£520.80 £520.20

• A high proportion of part-time jobs – driven by a large number of jobs in the service sector – particularly food, accommodation, retail and residential care.

Full/Part Time Jobs (2013)(Source: ONS)

Harrogate Yorkshire and The Humber UK0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

58.5%66.5% 67.2%

41.5%33.5% 32.8%

Full-time Part-time

• Economic Character: in terms of GVA and/or FTE, the following sectors are prominent in the district when compared to the Leeds City Region, Yorkshire and Humber and UK averages:

• Wholesale, • Professional Services, • Retail, • Accommodation & Food Services,• Media activities, • Agriculture, • Residential Care.

FTE (Jobs) and GVA (£) by Sector (2015)(Source: Regional Econometric Model)

UtilitiesCivil Engineering

Construction of BuildingsReal Estate

Other Private ServicesComputing & Information ServicesSpecialised Construction Activities

Public Administration & DefenceRecreation

Agriculture, Forestry & FishingFinance

Administrative & Supportive Service ActivitiesLand Transport, Storage & PostResidential Care & Social Work

Health Media ActivitiesManufacturing

Professional ServicesEducation

RetailWholesale

Accomodation, Catering and Recreation

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000

GVA (£100,000s)

FTE

• High cost of living – high and rising house prices and a costly private rental market…

Average House Price (April-June 2013)(Source: BBC)

Harrogate District North Yorkshire Yorkshire and Humber£0

£50,000

£100,000

£150,000

£200,000

£250,000

£300,000

£259,010

£212,589

£157,594

• A geographical imbalance in GVA – Harrogate town accounts for nearly two thirds (59%) of GVA but has less than half (46%) of the resident population

Share of GVA (£) in the Harrogate District (2014)(Source: Regional Econometric Model)

£2.2 billion 59%

£1.5 billion 41%

Harrogate Town The rest of the district

• Size of Business Units - smaller than average offices and industrial units…

125145165185205225245265285305325

Harrogate District North Yorkshire England

Average Floorspace: Industrial Units (Sq Metres) (2000-2012)

(Source: Valuation Office Agency)

20002001

20022003

20042005

20062007

20082009

20102011

2012450

500

550

600

650

700

750

800

Harrogate District North Yorkshire England

Average Floorspace: Office Units (Sq Metres) (2000-2012)

(Source: Valuation Office Agency)

Percentage of Harrogate Business Units that are ‘Medium’ or ‘Large’ (2013)

(Source: ONS - Inter Departmental Business Register)

Wak

efield

Leed

s

Bradford

Leed

s City

Region

Yorks

hire &

HumberYo

rk

Barnsle

y

Kirklee

s

Engla

nd

Calderd

aleSe

lby

Harroga

te

Craven

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%5.3%

4.9%4.4%

4.0% 3.9% 3.9% 3.7% 3.6%3.4% 3.2%

2.7% 2.5%1.9%

• The district’s economy is forecasted to grow by £325 million in GVA (8.4%) and create approximately 2,150 full-time equivalent jobs from 2015 to 2020.

• However, growth in GVA has been forecast at a slower pace than the wider Leeds City Region (11.2%), Yorkshire and Humber (10.8%) and the UK (12.6%). The district’s annual GVA is expected to reach its pre-recession peak in 2019 (compared with 2015 across the LCR).

• Wholesale, finance, professional services and media activities will deliver the most growth GVA.

• Accommodation, food services, media activities and wholesale will deliver the most growth in FTE Jobs.

Forecasts for 2015-2020

GVA (£) Versus FTE (Jobs) (2015-2020)(Source: Regional Econometric Model)

Wholesale

Accomodation, C

atering &

Recreation

Media Activities

Finance

Specialise

d Constructi

on Activities

Computing & In

formation Service

sRetail

Professi

onal Service

s

Constructi

on of Build

ings

Administrative &

Supportive Service

Activities

Civil Engineerin

g

Real Esta

te £-

£10,000,000.00

£20,000,000.00

£30,000,000.00

£40,000,000.00

£50,000,000.00

£60,000,000.00

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

GVAFTE