Economic Outlook - South Carolina v 4 Issue 8 August 2011
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Transcript of Economic Outlook - South Carolina v 4 Issue 8 August 2011
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8/4/2019 Economic Outlook - South Carolina v 4 Issue 8 August 2011
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-3.20%
-7.3%
-5.8%
+1.8%
-0.4%
+0.2%
+0.4%
-3.5%
-3.1%
S.C. Leading Index Falls Sharply in July
Volume 4: Issue 8 August 201
The Research Division at the South Carolina Department of Commerce is a highly-skilled,multidisciplinary team of professionals dedicated to the economic development of SouthCarolina and the collection, analysis and dissemination of information to support thatmission. Consisting of seven professionals with advanced degrees and expertise in economics,
usiness, statistics and information sciences, the Research Division publishes reports andanalyses for statewide constituents and proposals for companies considering South Carolina fornvestment. If you would like to receive Commerces monthly Economic Outlook, e-mail
Bloomberg
South Carolina Stock Indexfell 5.63 points in June, closing at 90.77 on the
last trading day of the month.
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
State Personal Incomeincreased to $157 billion in the first quarter of2011, a 1.8 percent increase over the previousquarter.
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Nonfarm Employmentfell by 7,200 non-seasonally adjusted jobs in
July over the previous month.
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Labor Forceincreased by a seasonally-adjusted 4,142 peopin July.
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Unemployment Raterose 0.4 percentage points to 10.9 percent in
July.
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Manufacturing Weekly Hoursdecreased 1.5 hours to 41.9 hours in July overthe previous month.
The Conference Board Help Wanted Online Index
Available Online Job Postingsdeclined 1,500 positions in July to aseasonally-adjusted 47,100 job postings.
South Carolina Association of Realtors
Single-Family Home Sales Pricedecreased to $150,000 in July, down 3.2 perceover June and last year, as well.
U.S. Census Bureau
Residential Building Permitsdeclined, falling by 97 permits over theprevious month.
KEY S.C. INDICATORS
Income
Employment
Real Estate
Source: South Carolina Department of Commerce
Driven by downward movement in all but one of its components, the SouthCarolina Leading Index (SCLI) declined by 0.34 points to 100.06. Relatively flatover the previous three months, July brought the largest decrease in the SCLIsince April 2010. A 3.5 percent decline in the average weekly work hours ofmanufacturing production employees coupled with a 17 percent increase in thenumber of initial claimants for unemployment insurance were the mainreasons for the falling SCLI this month. Bright spots in July include theincreasing size of the South Carolina labor force and rising state personal
income. Despite the decrease this month, the SCLI continues to indicate modestgrowth as it hovers above the 100 mark.
Real Estate Market Still Ahead for 2011Despite this months downturn in building permits and home sales, which istypical for July, South Carolinas Association of Realtors, the United StatesCensus Bureau and RealtyTrac all continue to report significant improvementsand growth in the states real estate market compared to one year ago. Over thepast year, home sales have increased 8.1 percent and new residential buildingpermits have increased 3.1 percent over July of last year. These two indicatorsprovide welcome news in both the Finance and Construction sectors as the
number of qualified homebuyers is increasing while new residential buildingpermits and construction employment are positively correlated, as well.Although foreclosures were slightly lower in May and June of this year than inJuly, they are trending downward and are 21.3 percent lower than one year agoand 14.2 percent lower year-to-date.
-David Clayton
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8/4/2019 Economic Outlook - South Carolina v 4 Issue 8 August 2011
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Industry SectorJuly
2011
Previous
Month
Previous
Year
% Change
Month Ago
% Chan
Year A
Goods Producing 300,400 298,300 290,900 0.70
Natural Resources and Mining 4,200 4,200 4,000 0.00
Construction 78,200 77,900 79,600 0.39
Manufacturing 218,000 216,200 207,300 0.83
Service Providing 1,533,100 1,542,400 1,518,000 -0.60
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 353,400 351,700 345,700 0.48
Information 25,700 25,600 26,100 0.39
Finance 97,600 97,800 98,500 -0.20
Professional and Business Services 223,700 223,600 216,300 0.04
Educational and Health Services 216,900 215,600 211,000 0.60Leisure and Hospitality 228,200 226,800 218,600 0.62
Other Services 68,000 68,100 68,800 -0.15
Total Private 1,513,900 1,507,500 1,475,900 0.42
Government 319,600 333,200 333,000 -4.08
Total Nonfarm 1,833,500 1,840,700 1,808,900 -0.39Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Weekly Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance
August 2
South Carolina Employment
Non-seasonally adjusted employment decreased in July across South Carolina. While private sector jobs increased by 6,400, the Government sector shed 13,600 jobs, makresponsible for the net decrease of 7,200 non-farm wage and salary jobs during the mContinued gains were observed in Manufacturing, which led private sector
Non-Seasonally Adjusted Wage and Salary Employment
Source: U.S. Department of Labor
nitial weekly Unemployment Insurance claims increased inJuly over the previous month to an average of just under6,200 claims per week. These numbers reflected a 17 percent
ncrease over the previous month, which is similar toeasonal increases that have occurred during the same
period in previous years. Claims initiated in July 2011 were14 percent lower than claims during the same time last year.
ndustry sectors most affecting initial claims during themonth of July include Heavy and Civil EngineeringConstruction and Administrative and Support Services.
2
6
10
14
200
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26-Feb-11
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4-Jun-11
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18-Jun-11
25-Jun-11U
SClaimants(Thousa
nds)
South Carolina United States
ob gains, increasing by 1,800 workers, bringing the year-over-year total to 9,400 manufacturing jobs added. Leisure and Hospitality added positions and Educational and Health Services rebounded from the previous month adding 1,300 jobs, as educational employees were add
payrolls for the beginning of the school year.
Capital Investment and Job Recruitment
Weekly Unemployment Claims
Capital Investment and Job Recruitment provide statistics on industry recruitment efforts, detailing upcoming jobs and capital investment
projects closed by the South Carolina Department of Commerce year-to-date.
Source: S.C. Department of Commerce Note: Not all closed projects have yet undergone announcement.
2011 YTD $1.82 Mfg
2010 T o t a l $4.06 Rural Service New
2009 T o t a l $2.38 Urban Distribution Expansion
Jobs 2011 YTD 10,313 Mfg
2010 T o t a l 20,453 Rural Service New
2009 T o t a l 18,004 Urban Distribution Expansion
Totals Location YTD Industry YTD Origin YTD
Capital
Investment(billions o f $)
85%
15%
65%
35%
83%
67%
22%
12%
77%
23
54
46%
4%13
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8/4/2019 Economic Outlook - South Carolina v 4 Issue 8 August 2011
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Thousands of US dollars. Source: S.C. Association of Realtors, RealtyTrac, U.S. Census
Source: U.S. Census Source: U.S. Department of Labor Source: The Conference Board Help Wanted Online Index
Source: South Carolina Department of Revenue Source: Bloomberg Source: U.S. Department of Labor
Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units. Source: SC Ports Authority Source: U.S. Census Source: Foreign Trade Division, U.S. Census
Residential Building Permits Average Hourly Earnings (All Employees) Jobs Available Online
Retail Sales
Port of Charleston Personal Income Export Activity
Weekly Manufacturing Hours WorkedSC Stock Index
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2008Q4
2009Q1
2009Q2
2009Q3
2009Q4
2010Q1
2010Q2
2010Q3
2010Q4
2011Q1
US$(billions)
Business Activity
While the median home price in South Carolina declined down 3.2 perce$150,000 over the previous year, sales volumes increased 8.1 percent but aredown 7.8 percent year-to-date over 2010. Foreclosures witnessed a sharp decli21.3 percent in July over the previous year and are down 14.2 percent year-to-Finally, building permits for new residential construction rose 3.1 percent duringand the valuation of those permits rose significantly by 21.7 percent.
August 2
South Carolina Real Estate
Income and Output
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
300
320
340
360
380
400
Jun10
Jul10
Aug10
Sep10
Oct10
Nov10
Dec10
Jan11
Feb11
Mar11
Apr11
May11
Jun11
US$(billions)
United States South Carolina
SC$(billions)
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Jul10
Aug10
Sep10
Oct10
Nov10
Dec10
Jan11
Feb11
Mar11
Apr11
May11
Jun11
Jul11
United States South Carolina
USUnits(thousands)
SCUnits(thousands)
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
55,000
Aug10
Sep10
Oct10
Nov10
Dec10
Jan11
Feb11
Mar11
Apr11
May11
Jun11
Volume(TEUs*)
Export Import
39
40
41
42
43
44
Jul10
Aug10
Sep10
Oct10
Nov10
Dec10
Jan11
Feb11
Mar11
Apr11
May11
J u n 1 1
United States South Carolina
Hours90.8
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
SCIndexValue*
*Represents 40 publicly-traded companies headquartered in SC.
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
May10
Jun10
Jul10
Aug10
Sep10
Oct10
Nov10
Dec10
Jan11
Feb11
Mar11
Apr11
May11
Jun11
Jul11
United States South Carolin
USJobs(thousands)
$157.4
143
148
153
158
11.1
11.6
12.1
12.6
13.1
2009.1
2009.2
2009.3
2009.4
2010.1
2010.2
2010.3
2010.4
2011.1
SC$(billions)
United States South Carolina
US$(trillions)
$20.53
$18.00
$18.50
$19.00
$19.50
$20.00
$20.50
$21.00
$21.50
South Carolina
Month Current
Previous
Year
% Change
Year Ago 2011 YTD 2010 YTD
% Cha
YTD
Closings July 4,110 3,801 8.1% 27,232 29,538 -
Median Sales Price* July $150.0 $155.0 -3.2% $147.0 $149.9 -
Foreclosures July 2,982 3,788 -21.3% 20,415 23,790 -14
Residential Building Permits-Total July 1,229 1,192 3.1% 8,930 9,565 -
Residential Building Permits-Valuation* July $243,555 $200,085 21.7% $1,542,351 $1,639,457 -5
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8/4/2019 Economic Outlook - South Carolina v 4 Issue 8 August 2011
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Charleston MSA Columbia MSA Florence MSA
Greenville MSA Myrtle Beach MSA Spartanburg MSA
Source: S.C. Association of Realtors Source: U.S. Census
South Carolina Metropolitan Statistical Areas Charleston MSA Columbia MSA Florence MSA
Greenville MSA Myrtle Beach MSA Spartanburg MSA
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (MSA figures not seasonally adjusted) Source: SCDOC analysis of SCDEW data
Source: BEA
Home Sales
August 2
South Carolina Regional Update
Employment
Building Permits
0
20
40
60
80
Jul10
Sep10
Nov10
Jan11
Mar11
May11
Jul11
Value (millions) Pe
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
0
200
400
600
Jul10
Sep10
Nov10
Jan11
Mar11
May11
Jul11
Value (millions) Permits
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
0
100
200
300
400
Jul10
Sep10
Nov10
Jan11
Mar11
May11
Jul11
Value (millions) Permits
0
10
20
30
40
50
Jul10
Sep10
Nov10
Jan11
Mar11
May11
Jul11
Value (millions) Per
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
0
50
100
150
200
250
Jul10
Sep10
Nov10
Jan11
Mar11
May11
Jul11
Value (millions) Permits
$0
$10
$20
$30
0
50
100
150
200
Jul10
Sep10
Nov10
Jan11
Mar11
May11
Jul11
Value (millions) Permits
Unemployment Insurance Claims
The South Carolina Regional Update provides a snapshot of the most recent econfigures for the six largest Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) in the state. Accordithe United States Department of Commerce, the Charlotte-Rock Hill area ranked 45th o336 MSAs in personal income growth.
2,421
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
Jul10
Sep10
Nov10
Jan11
Mar11
May11
Jul11
New UI Claims
Personal Income Growth - Out of 366 US MSAs - BEA, 2010
3,053
0
2000
4000
6000
Jul10
Sep10
Nov10
Jan11
Mar11
May11
Jul11
New UI Claims
0
500
1000
1500
2000
Jul10
Sep10
Nov10
Jan11
Mar11
May11
New UI Claims
2,566
0
2000
4000
6000
Jul10
Sep10
Nov10
Jan11
Mar11
May11
Jul11
New UI Claims
894
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
Jul10
Sep10
Nov10
Jan11
Mar11
May11
Jul11
New UI Claims
0
500
1000
1500
2000
Jul10
Sep10
Nov10
Jan11
Mar11
May11
New UI Claims
Charlotte-Rock Hill, NC-SC CharlestonSumter AndersonAugusta-Aiken GA-SC
+4.4%21.1%21.1%77th 9th27th10th19th
MSA Indicator Jun 11 Jul 11
Charleston Employment (000 's) 298.3 300.4
Unemployment Rate 9.8 9.5
ColumbiaEmployment (000 's)
336.8 337.0Unemployment Rate 10.0 10.0
Florence Employment (000 's) 83.3 84.9
Unemployment Rate 12.4 12.2
Greenville Employment (000 's) 285.0 285.7
Unemployment Rate 9.7 9.6
Myrtle Beach Employment (000 's) 127.4 131.1
Unemployment Rate 10.5 10.0
Spartanburg Employment (000 's) 119.5 117.3
Unemployment Rate 11.7 11.7
South Carolina Employment (000 's) 1,931.4 1,925.2
Unemployment Rate 10.5 10.9
MSA Indicator Jul 10 Jul 11
CharlestonSales Vo lume 678 832
Median Price (000 ' $195 $180
ColumbiaSales Vo lume 619 592
Median Price (000 ' $150 $143
FlorenceSales Vo lume 104 120
Median Price (000 ' $129 $130
GreenvilleSales Vo lume 538 637
Median Price (000 ' $141 $153
Myrtle BeachSales Vo lume 599 605
Median Price (000 ' $148 $137
Spartanburg Sales Vo lume 197 220
Median Price (000 ' $115 $126
South CarolinaSales Vo lume 3,801 4,110
Median Price (000 ' $155.0 $150.0
45th 51st 59th 67th 69th