Economic Outlook Conference 2012: Maryland's Economic Outlook
Economic Outlook, May 18, 2016 - Richmond Fed€¦ · Economic Outlook 2 R. Andrew Bauer, Ph.D....
Transcript of Economic Outlook, May 18, 2016 - Richmond Fed€¦ · Economic Outlook 2 R. Andrew Bauer, Ph.D....
Economic Outlook
Mid-Atlantic CFO RoundtableMay 18, 2016
R. Andrew Bauer, Ph.D.Senior Regional EconomistResearch Department
Economic Outlook
2
R. Andrew Bauer, Ph.D.Senior Regional EconomistMay 18, 2016
The views expressed here are those of the author, and do not necessarily represent those of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond or the Federal Reserve System.
-9
-8
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
-9
-8
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Percent change from previous quarter at annual rate
Note: Projection is the median, central tendency, and range from the March 2016 Summary of Economic Projections. Red dots indicate median projections. Projections of change in real gross domestic product (GDP) are from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated. 3
Q10.5%
Real Gross Domestic Product
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics & Federal Reserve Board
FOMC Projection
4
Decomposition of Real GDP
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics
Note: Productivity is calculated as real GDP per employee, from the Household Survey.
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
1958 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014
Employment
Productivity
GDP
10-Year Annual Growth Rates
5
Real Gross Domestic Product
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics
2016 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS QUARTER AT COMPOUND ANNUAL RATE [Percent]:
Gross Domestic Product 0.6 3.9 2.0 1.4 0.5
Personal Consumption Expenditures 1.8 3.6 3.0 2.4 1.9
Nonresidential Fixed Investment 1.6 4.1 2.6 -2.1 -5.9Structures -7.4 6.2 -7.2 -5.1 -10.7Equipment & Software 2.3 0.3 9.9 -2.1 -8.6
Residential Fixed Investment 10.1 9.3 8.2 10.1 14.8
Exports of Goods & Services -6.0 5.1 0.7 -2.0 -2.6Imports of Goods & Services 7.1 3.0 2.3 -0.7 0.2
Final Sales to Domestic Purchasers 1.7 3.7 2.9 1.7 1.2
LEVEL IN QUARTER AT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATE [Billions of Chained (2005) Dollars]:
Change in Private Inventories 112.8 113.5 85.5 78.3 60.9
Net Exports of Goods & Services -541.2 -534.6 -546.1 -551.9 -566.6
2015
1.2Government Consumption Expenditures & Gross Investment
-0.1 2.6 1.8 0.1
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics
Payroll Employment Growth– Through March 2016
6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
YoY% Change
Washington DC, Metro Div.MarylandVirginiaPennsylvania
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics
Unemployment Rate – Through March 2016
7
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
YoY% Change
Washington DC, Metro Div.MarylandVirginiaPennsylvania
Maryland unemployment rates by county
8Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
3.43.5
3.9
12.4
7.2 7.37.1
8.2
7.6
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Maryland Business by Sector
9
36,561
34,610
17,074
19,328
19,794
15,827
13,448
4,108
3,306
2,809
698
40,312
32,815
19,541
19,325
16,025
14,774
14,380
3,641
3,495
2,555
695
Professional & Business Services
Trade, Transportation & Utilities
Education & Health Services
Other Services
Construction
Financial Activities
Leisure & Hospitality
Manufacturing
Total Government
Information
Natural Resources
Number of Establishments by Industry - Maryland
Qtr4 2007
Qtr3 2015
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Maryland Business Dynamics
10
3,393
19
1,380
185
1,148
117
535
97
-591
-13
257
-119
2,336
16
-2,389
-282
-647
-137
-518
3,848
1,876
919
254
70
Total
Natural Resources
Construction
Manufacturing
Trade, Transportation & Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional & Business Services
Education & Health Services
Leisure & Hospitality
Other Services
Total Government
Establishment Loss inRecession (Q4:2007 toQ2:2009)
Establishment Gain inRecovery (Q2:2009 toQ3:2015)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Baltimore MSA Business Dynamics
11
1,755
16
688
153
555
20
245
101
-310
43
167
-74
353
-3
-1,114
-201
-399
-123
-281
1,022
687
411
355
8
Total
Natural Resources
Construction
Manufacturing
Trade, Transportation & Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional & Business Services
Education & Health Services
Leisure & Hospitality
Other Services
Total Government
Establishment Loss inRecession (Q4:2007 toQ2:2009)Establishment Gain inRecovery (Q2:2009 toQ3:2015)
Source: Core Logic/Haver Analytics
Housing Market – Through March 2016
12
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
YoY% Change United StatesMarylandBaltimore MSA
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
13
March0.8%
FOMC Projection
Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index12 Month % Change
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis & Board of Governors via Haver Analytics
2% Longer-run Target
Notes: FOMC projection is the median, range, and central tendency for Q4/Q4 percent changes, from the March 2016 meeting. Red dots indicate median projections.
The views expressed here are those of the author, and do not necessarily represent those of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond or the Federal Reserve System.
14