Economic Outlook Briefing for CIC Peter Andrews Agency for Greater London Bank of England November...
-
Upload
lilian-riley -
Category
Documents
-
view
215 -
download
2
Transcript of Economic Outlook Briefing for CIC Peter Andrews Agency for Greater London Bank of England November...
![Page 1: Economic Outlook Briefing for CIC Peter Andrews Agency for Greater London Bank of England November 2014.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022081519/56649e305503460f94b204e8/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Economic Outlook
Briefing for CIC
Peter Andrews Agency for Greater London
Bank of England
November 2014
![Page 2: Economic Outlook Briefing for CIC Peter Andrews Agency for Greater London Bank of England November 2014.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022081519/56649e305503460f94b204e8/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Greater London Agency
Overview
![Page 3: Economic Outlook Briefing for CIC Peter Andrews Agency for Greater London Bank of England November 2014.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022081519/56649e305503460f94b204e8/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Greater London Agency
Aug GDP projection, mkt interest rate expectations and £375 bn purchased assets
Nov GDP projection, mkt interest rate expectations and £375 bn purchased assets
![Page 4: Economic Outlook Briefing for CIC Peter Andrews Agency for Greater London Bank of England November 2014.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022081519/56649e305503460f94b204e8/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Greater London Agency
Market expectations for UK, US and euro-area interest rates have fallen since August
Sources: BoE, Bloomberg, ECB and Federal Reserve.
![Page 5: Economic Outlook Briefing for CIC Peter Andrews Agency for Greater London Bank of England November 2014.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022081519/56649e305503460f94b204e8/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Greater London Agency
Chart 2 CPI inflation projection based on market interest rate expectations and £375 billion purchased assets
![Page 6: Economic Outlook Briefing for CIC Peter Andrews Agency for Greater London Bank of England November 2014.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022081519/56649e305503460f94b204e8/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Greater London Agency
Table 5C Key Judgements
• Global growth picks up only gradually following recent weakness, particularly in the Euro area.
• Domestic demand growth is sustained by further declines in private sector saving and a gradual revival in average real incomes.
• A modest recovery in productivity underpins output growth so that the pace at which slack is absorbed slows.
• As import costs stop falling, their drag on inflation wanes, and a pickup in unit labour cost growth gradually returns inflation to the 2% target.
![Page 7: Economic Outlook Briefing for CIC Peter Andrews Agency for Greater London Bank of England November 2014.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022081519/56649e305503460f94b204e8/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Greater London Agency
Demand
![Page 8: Economic Outlook Briefing for CIC Peter Andrews Agency for Greater London Bank of England November 2014.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022081519/56649e305503460f94b204e8/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Greater London Agency
Recovery in expenditure more weighted towards investment
![Page 9: Economic Outlook Briefing for CIC Peter Andrews Agency for Greater London Bank of England November 2014.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022081519/56649e305503460f94b204e8/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Greater London Agency. Sources: ONS and Bank calculations
Household saving ratio(a)
![Page 10: Economic Outlook Briefing for CIC Peter Andrews Agency for Greater London Bank of England November 2014.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022081519/56649e305503460f94b204e8/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Greater London Agency
Business investment growth driven by the service sector
![Page 11: Economic Outlook Briefing for CIC Peter Andrews Agency for Greater London Bank of England November 2014.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022081519/56649e305503460f94b204e8/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Greater London Agency
PNFC lending outside real estate sector picks up
![Page 12: Economic Outlook Briefing for CIC Peter Andrews Agency for Greater London Bank of England November 2014.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022081519/56649e305503460f94b204e8/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Greater London Agency
Near-term outlook for external demand revised down
Sources: Eurostat, IMF World Economic Outlook Oct 2014, OECD, ONS, Thomson Reuters, Datastream, US Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bank calculations.
![Page 13: Economic Outlook Briefing for CIC Peter Andrews Agency for Greater London Bank of England November 2014.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022081519/56649e305503460f94b204e8/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Greater London Agency
UK current account deficit historically large
![Page 14: Economic Outlook Briefing for CIC Peter Andrews Agency for Greater London Bank of England November 2014.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022081519/56649e305503460f94b204e8/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Greater London Agency
Housing
![Page 15: Economic Outlook Briefing for CIC Peter Andrews Agency for Greater London Bank of England November 2014.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022081519/56649e305503460f94b204e8/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Greater London Agency
Loan to income multiples had risenNew mortgages for house purchase at LTI multiples >= 4.5
Sources: FCA Product Sales Data and Bank calculations.
![Page 16: Economic Outlook Briefing for CIC Peter Andrews Agency for Greater London Bank of England November 2014.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022081519/56649e305503460f94b204e8/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Greater London Agency
House price inflation moderated a little
Sources: Halifax, Land Registry, Nationwide, ONS, Rightmove.co.uk, RICS and BoE calculations.
![Page 17: Economic Outlook Briefing for CIC Peter Andrews Agency for Greater London Bank of England November 2014.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022081519/56649e305503460f94b204e8/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Greater London Agency
RICS survey: regional house prices over past 3 months
![Page 18: Economic Outlook Briefing for CIC Peter Andrews Agency for Greater London Bank of England November 2014.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022081519/56649e305503460f94b204e8/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Greater London Agency
Approvals for home movers weakening
Sources: Bank of England, Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) and Bank calculations.
![Page 19: Economic Outlook Briefing for CIC Peter Andrews Agency for Greater London Bank of England November 2014.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022081519/56649e305503460f94b204e8/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Greater London Agency
New building is driving housing investment
![Page 20: Economic Outlook Briefing for CIC Peter Andrews Agency for Greater London Bank of England November 2014.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022081519/56649e305503460f94b204e8/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Greater London Agency
Output and supply
![Page 21: Economic Outlook Briefing for CIC Peter Andrews Agency for Greater London Bank of England November 2014.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022081519/56649e305503460f94b204e8/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Greater London Agency
Output growth by sector
![Page 22: Economic Outlook Briefing for CIC Peter Andrews Agency for Greater London Bank of England November 2014.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022081519/56649e305503460f94b204e8/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Greater London Agency
Agents’ scores for output growth
![Page 23: Economic Outlook Briefing for CIC Peter Andrews Agency for Greater London Bank of England November 2014.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022081519/56649e305503460f94b204e8/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Greater London Agency
Unemployment rate projected to fall further
Sources: Labour Force Survey and Bank calculations.
![Page 24: Economic Outlook Briefing for CIC Peter Andrews Agency for Greater London Bank of England November 2014.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022081519/56649e305503460f94b204e8/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Greater London Agency
Employment growth among the lower skilled
Sources: Labour Force Survey and Bank calculations.
![Page 25: Economic Outlook Briefing for CIC Peter Andrews Agency for Greater London Bank of England November 2014.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022081519/56649e305503460f94b204e8/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Greater London Agency
Some slack remains in the labour market
Sources: ONS (including the Labour Force Survey) and Bank calculations.
![Page 26: Economic Outlook Briefing for CIC Peter Andrews Agency for Greater London Bank of England November 2014.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022081519/56649e305503460f94b204e8/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Greater London Agency
Productivity growth(a)
Sources: ONS and Bank calculations.
![Page 27: Economic Outlook Briefing for CIC Peter Andrews Agency for Greater London Bank of England November 2014.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022081519/56649e305503460f94b204e8/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Greater London Agency
Costs and prices
![Page 28: Economic Outlook Briefing for CIC Peter Andrews Agency for Greater London Bank of England November 2014.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022081519/56649e305503460f94b204e8/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
Greater London Agency
CPI inflation projected to fall in Q4
![Page 29: Economic Outlook Briefing for CIC Peter Andrews Agency for Greater London Bank of England November 2014.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022081519/56649e305503460f94b204e8/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
Greater London Agency
Import price inflation(a)
Sources: ONS and Bank calculations.
![Page 30: Economic Outlook Briefing for CIC Peter Andrews Agency for Greater London Bank of England November 2014.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022081519/56649e305503460f94b204e8/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
Greater London Agency
Unit labour costs growth has stopped
Sources: ONS and Bank calculations.
![Page 31: Economic Outlook Briefing for CIC Peter Andrews Agency for Greater London Bank of England November 2014.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022081519/56649e305503460f94b204e8/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
Economic Outlook
Briefing for CIC
Peter Andrews Agency for Greater London
Bank of England
November 2014