by Mavuto D. Tembo Presented at Suas /TIDI Research for Change Trinity College Dublin
ECONOMIC MODELING OF A LIGNOCELLULOSIC BIOMASS BIOREFINING INDUSTRY Francis M. Epplin Lawrence D....
-
Upload
kiara-fuge -
Category
Documents
-
view
219 -
download
2
Transcript of ECONOMIC MODELING OF A LIGNOCELLULOSIC BIOMASS BIOREFINING INDUSTRY Francis M. Epplin Lawrence D....
![Page 1: ECONOMIC MODELING OF A LIGNOCELLULOSIC BIOMASS BIOREFINING INDUSTRY Francis M. Epplin Lawrence D. Mapemba Gelson Tembo Department of Agricultural Economics.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56649c915503460f9494bc8e/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
ECONOMIC MODELING OF A LIGNOCELLULOSIC BIOMASS
BIOREFINING INDUSTRY
Francis M. EpplinLawrence D. Mapemba
Gelson Tembo
Department of Agricultural Economics
Oklahoma State University
Agriculture as a Producer and Consumer of Energy
![Page 2: ECONOMIC MODELING OF A LIGNOCELLULOSIC BIOMASS BIOREFINING INDUSTRY Francis M. Epplin Lawrence D. Mapemba Gelson Tembo Department of Agricultural Economics.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56649c915503460f9494bc8e/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Biobased Products Research at Oklahoma Research at Oklahoma
State UniversityState University• Biomass feedstock production• Harvest, transport and storage• Bioconversion
– Gasification– Fermentation– Microbial catalysts
• Economics
![Page 3: ECONOMIC MODELING OF A LIGNOCELLULOSIC BIOMASS BIOREFINING INDUSTRY Francis M. Epplin Lawrence D. Mapemba Gelson Tembo Department of Agricultural Economics.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56649c915503460f9494bc8e/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Vision
Agriculture that provides feedstock for a biomass processing industry that produces economically competitive, and environmentally sound products.
Agriculture as a Producer and Consumer of Energy
![Page 4: ECONOMIC MODELING OF A LIGNOCELLULOSIC BIOMASS BIOREFINING INDUSTRY Francis M. Epplin Lawrence D. Mapemba Gelson Tembo Department of Agricultural Economics.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56649c915503460f9494bc8e/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
![Page 5: ECONOMIC MODELING OF A LIGNOCELLULOSIC BIOMASS BIOREFINING INDUSTRY Francis M. Epplin Lawrence D. Mapemba Gelson Tembo Department of Agricultural Economics.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56649c915503460f9494bc8e/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Strategy
Biomass
Grow, harvest, store, and
transport
Gasifier
Convert biomass to producer gas
(CO, CO2, H2)
Bioreactor
Ferment producer gas to
ethanol and other useful
products
![Page 6: ECONOMIC MODELING OF A LIGNOCELLULOSIC BIOMASS BIOREFINING INDUSTRY Francis M. Epplin Lawrence D. Mapemba Gelson Tembo Department of Agricultural Economics.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56649c915503460f9494bc8e/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Gasification-Fermentation Could Use a Variety of Feedstocks
• Harvest windows differ across species• Use harvest machinery over many months• Reduce feedstock storage cost• Variable landscape• Reduce insect and disease risk
![Page 7: ECONOMIC MODELING OF A LIGNOCELLULOSIC BIOMASS BIOREFINING INDUSTRY Francis M. Epplin Lawrence D. Mapemba Gelson Tembo Department of Agricultural Economics.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56649c915503460f9494bc8e/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Research Questions
• Where would LCB be produced?• What feedstock or combination of feedstock is
economically optimal?• How much LCB harvest machinery would be
required? • How much of what species should be harvested
in each period (month)?• What quantity of LCB should be placed in field
storage in each period (month)?• What quantity of LCB should be placed in storage
at the biorefinery in each period (month)?
![Page 8: ECONOMIC MODELING OF A LIGNOCELLULOSIC BIOMASS BIOREFINING INDUSTRY Francis M. Epplin Lawrence D. Mapemba Gelson Tembo Department of Agricultural Economics.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56649c915503460f9494bc8e/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Research Questions(continued)
• What quantity of LCB should be removed from each storage location in each month?
• What is the optimal transportation flow of LCB from the field and from field storage to the biorefinery?
• What is the optimal size of the biorefinery?• Where should the biorefinery be located? • What products should the biorefinery produce?
![Page 9: ECONOMIC MODELING OF A LIGNOCELLULOSIC BIOMASS BIOREFINING INDUSTRY Francis M. Epplin Lawrence D. Mapemba Gelson Tembo Department of Agricultural Economics.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56649c915503460f9494bc8e/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Objective
to describe a modeling system that may be used to determine for a specific region
• the most economical sources of LCB, • timing of harvest,• time and location of storage,• inventory management,• biorefinery size,• and biorefinery location.
![Page 10: ECONOMIC MODELING OF A LIGNOCELLULOSIC BIOMASS BIOREFINING INDUSTRY Francis M. Epplin Lawrence D. Mapemba Gelson Tembo Department of Agricultural Economics.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56649c915503460f9494bc8e/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
http://www.blm.gov/nhp/300/wo320/slide12.html
Power River BasinWyomingCoal Mine
![Page 11: ECONOMIC MODELING OF A LIGNOCELLULOSIC BIOMASS BIOREFINING INDUSTRY Francis M. Epplin Lawrence D. Mapemba Gelson Tembo Department of Agricultural Economics.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56649c915503460f9494bc8e/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
http://www.carrtracks.com/prbcoal2.htm
Size Matters
![Page 12: ECONOMIC MODELING OF A LIGNOCELLULOSIC BIOMASS BIOREFINING INDUSTRY Francis M. Epplin Lawrence D. Mapemba Gelson Tembo Department of Agricultural Economics.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56649c915503460f9494bc8e/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
http://smtc.uwyo.edu/coal/trains/unit.asp
11,000 tons per day for one electric generating plant110 cars that transport 100-tons each (a mile of coal)
Coal at the mine mouth is about $5 per ton. It is shipped 1,100 miles to Oklahoma, for an additional $20 per ton. 80% of the cost of the coal is for transportation.
![Page 13: ECONOMIC MODELING OF A LIGNOCELLULOSIC BIOMASS BIOREFINING INDUSTRY Francis M. Epplin Lawrence D. Mapemba Gelson Tembo Department of Agricultural Economics.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56649c915503460f9494bc8e/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Quantity of Feedstock Required for a4,000 tons per day Biorefinery
• 1,400,000 tons of biomass per year• 17 dry tons per truck• 350 days of operation per year• 235 trucks per day• 24 hours per day• 9.8 trucks per hour
Neonatal coal
![Page 14: ECONOMIC MODELING OF A LIGNOCELLULOSIC BIOMASS BIOREFINING INDUSTRY Francis M. Epplin Lawrence D. Mapemba Gelson Tembo Department of Agricultural Economics.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56649c915503460f9494bc8e/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Modeling
• Harvest units• Harvest capacity depends upon
– Number of harvest days per month– Number of endogenously determined harvest
units• Farmer/landowner may be paid either a fixed rate
per ton (crop residue) or a fixed rate per acre (CRP acres)
![Page 15: ECONOMIC MODELING OF A LIGNOCELLULOSIC BIOMASS BIOREFINING INDUSTRY Francis M. Epplin Lawrence D. Mapemba Gelson Tembo Department of Agricultural Economics.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56649c915503460f9494bc8e/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Harvest Unit
• 6 mower conditioners• 6 rakes• 3 balers• 9 tractors• 1 in-field transporter• Average Investment of $590,000 / harvest
unit
• 10 people
![Page 16: ECONOMIC MODELING OF A LIGNOCELLULOSIC BIOMASS BIOREFINING INDUSTRY Francis M. Epplin Lawrence D. Mapemba Gelson Tembo Department of Agricultural Economics.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56649c915503460f9494bc8e/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Biomass Alternatives(Oklahoma)
• Crop residue– wheat straw (June-July)– corn stover (September-October)
• Production from Conservation Reserve Program acres (July-October)
• Established perennials (June-February)– native grasses (short, mixed and tall prairie grass)– improved pastures (Bermuda, fescue, old world
bluestem)• Convert and manage cropland specifically for the
production of biomass– switchgrass (model species) (July-February)
![Page 17: ECONOMIC MODELING OF A LIGNOCELLULOSIC BIOMASS BIOREFINING INDUSTRY Francis M. Epplin Lawrence D. Mapemba Gelson Tembo Department of Agricultural Economics.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56649c915503460f9494bc8e/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Oklahoma• 33 million acres in farms and ranches
– 50% rangeland– 25% permanent improved pasture and hay– 25% cropland (1 million acres in CRP)
• Alternative use for these agricultural and rural resources
![Page 18: ECONOMIC MODELING OF A LIGNOCELLULOSIC BIOMASS BIOREFINING INDUSTRY Francis M. Epplin Lawrence D. Mapemba Gelson Tembo Department of Agricultural Economics.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56649c915503460f9494bc8e/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Multi-region, Multi-period, Monthly time step,
Mixed Integer Mathematical Programming Model
• 77 counties (production regions)• 11 potential plant locations• 3 plant sizes (1,000, 2,000, 4,000 tons per day)• 9 potential feedstocks• 4 fertility levels for improved pasture grasses• Endogenously determined number of harvest units• Monthly harvest capacity restricted by harvest
days• 12 months• In-field storage• Storage at biorefinery• Designed for multiple products
![Page 19: ECONOMIC MODELING OF A LIGNOCELLULOSIC BIOMASS BIOREFINING INDUSTRY Francis M. Epplin Lawrence D. Mapemba Gelson Tembo Department of Agricultural Economics.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56649c915503460f9494bc8e/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Case Study
• Single Biorefinery• Pseudo product• Three Size Alternatives
– 1,000, 2,000, and 4,000 tons/day
• Two Feedstock Alternatives– Multiple feedstock
• Crop Residue, Native Range, Improved Pastures, Switchgrass
• Limited to 10% of existing acres by source per county
– CRP-only• Limited to 25% of CRP acres per county
![Page 20: ECONOMIC MODELING OF A LIGNOCELLULOSIC BIOMASS BIOREFINING INDUSTRY Francis M. Epplin Lawrence D. Mapemba Gelson Tembo Department of Agricultural Economics.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56649c915503460f9494bc8e/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Estimated Average Distance to Transport Lignocellulosic Biomass to a Biorefinery located in
Oklahoma from Multiple Feedstock Sources and from CRP-Only
49
64
78
98
147
0
50
100
150
1000 2000 4000
Biorefinery Size(tons/day)
Ave
rag
e F
eed
sto
ck
Tra
nsp
ort
(mil
es
)
Multiple Sources
CRP
![Page 21: ECONOMIC MODELING OF A LIGNOCELLULOSIC BIOMASS BIOREFINING INDUSTRY Francis M. Epplin Lawrence D. Mapemba Gelson Tembo Department of Agricultural Economics.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56649c915503460f9494bc8e/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Estimated Cost to Deliver Lignocellulosic Biomass to a Biorefinery; Multiple Feedstock Sources and
CRP-Only($/ton)
$32 $33$35
$64
$69
$0
$25
$50
$75
1000 2000 4000
Biorefinery Size(tons/day)
Fe
ed
sto
ck
Co
st
(del
iver
ed t
on
)
Multiple Sources
CRP
![Page 22: ECONOMIC MODELING OF A LIGNOCELLULOSIC BIOMASS BIOREFINING INDUSTRY Francis M. Epplin Lawrence D. Mapemba Gelson Tembo Department of Agricultural Economics.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56649c915503460f9494bc8e/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Estimated Quantity of Feedstock Harvested by Month for a 2,000 t/d Biorefinery; Multiple
Feedstock Sources and CRP-Only. (CRP Harvest is Limited by Policy to 120 Days Beginning with July
2.)
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Month
Fe
ed
sto
ck
Ha
rve
ste
d(t
on
s)
Multiple Sources
CRP
![Page 23: ECONOMIC MODELING OF A LIGNOCELLULOSIC BIOMASS BIOREFINING INDUSTRY Francis M. Epplin Lawrence D. Mapemba Gelson Tembo Department of Agricultural Economics.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56649c915503460f9494bc8e/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Estimated Quantity of Feedstock Stored by Month at Remote Sites for a 2,000 t/d
Biorefinery; Multiple Feedstock Sources and CRP-Only.
(CRP Harvest is Limited by Policy to 120 Days Beginning with July 2.)
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Month
Fie
ld S
tora
ge
(to
ns
)
Multiple Sources
CRP
![Page 24: ECONOMIC MODELING OF A LIGNOCELLULOSIC BIOMASS BIOREFINING INDUSTRY Francis M. Epplin Lawrence D. Mapemba Gelson Tembo Department of Agricultural Economics.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56649c915503460f9494bc8e/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Estimated Quantity of Feedstock Stored per Month at the Biorefinery for a 2,000 t/d
Biorefinery; Multiple Feedstock Sources and CRP-Only.
(Storage at the Biorefinery is Limited to 42,000 tons (21 days))
0
15,000
30,000
45,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Month
Sto
rag
e a
t B
iore
fin
ery
(t
on
s)
Multiple Sources
CRP
![Page 25: ECONOMIC MODELING OF A LIGNOCELLULOSIC BIOMASS BIOREFINING INDUSTRY Francis M. Epplin Lawrence D. Mapemba Gelson Tembo Department of Agricultural Economics.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56649c915503460f9494bc8e/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Feedstocks Selected by the Model for use by the 2,000 t/d Biorefinery with Multiple Sources.
CRP2%
Corn Stover0%Wheat Straw
9%
Native Grasses37%
Switchgrass52%
![Page 26: ECONOMIC MODELING OF A LIGNOCELLULOSIC BIOMASS BIOREFINING INDUSTRY Francis M. Epplin Lawrence D. Mapemba Gelson Tembo Department of Agricultural Economics.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56649c915503460f9494bc8e/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Findings
• The most economical system would process a variety of feedstocks
• Harvest would extend over as many months as permitted by weather and species
• Crop residues would not be a major feedstock in the region (narrow harvest window)
• Method of feedstock acquisition ($/t or $/acre) matters
• Given the quantity of LCB required, and the lack of an existing infrastructure to harvest and transport a continuous flow of massive quantities of LCB, it is likely that an integrated and centrally controlled harvest and transportation system would develop.
![Page 27: ECONOMIC MODELING OF A LIGNOCELLULOSIC BIOMASS BIOREFINING INDUSTRY Francis M. Epplin Lawrence D. Mapemba Gelson Tembo Department of Agricultural Economics.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56649c915503460f9494bc8e/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Findings (continued)
• The structure of a mature biomass to bioproducts industry that produces bulk commodities such as liquid fuel, from dedicated feedstocks such as switchgrass, may evolve to resemble a vertically integrated timber production and processing business
• Public policy that restricts business ties between feedstock production and feedstock processing is likely to hinder the development of an LCB biorefinery industry.
![Page 28: ECONOMIC MODELING OF A LIGNOCELLULOSIC BIOMASS BIOREFINING INDUSTRY Francis M. Epplin Lawrence D. Mapemba Gelson Tembo Department of Agricultural Economics.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56649c915503460f9494bc8e/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
Challenges
• Identifying niche (profit generating) products• Isolating microbial catalysts• Funding pilot scale biorefinery• Competition
![Page 29: ECONOMIC MODELING OF A LIGNOCELLULOSIC BIOMASS BIOREFINING INDUSTRY Francis M. Epplin Lawrence D. Mapemba Gelson Tembo Department of Agricultural Economics.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56649c915503460f9494bc8e/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
Benefits
• Environmental• Alternative use for range land • Alternative use for land enrolled in the
Conservation Reserve Program• Economic activity for rural areas
![Page 30: ECONOMIC MODELING OF A LIGNOCELLULOSIC BIOMASS BIOREFINING INDUSTRY Francis M. Epplin Lawrence D. Mapemba Gelson Tembo Department of Agricultural Economics.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56649c915503460f9494bc8e/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
Agriculture as a Producer and Consumer of Energy