Economic Indicators to Watch The Disturbing Economic Tea Leaves Nashville, TN Thursday, January 30,...

Economic Indicators to Watch

The Disturbing Economic Tea LeavesNashville, TN

Thursday, January 30, 2014

Richard YamaroneBloomberg Economics, Bloomberg Economic BRIEF

Author of “The Trader’s Guide to Key Economic Indicators”

Richard Yamarone, [email protected], TEL: 212-617-8737 Twitter: @Yamarone

Richard Yamarone, [email protected], TEL: 212-617-8737

Jobs, Jobs, Jobs…It’s All About Jobs


The Type of Jobs Matter


The Top Concern for Businesses


Economy Isn’t Advancing Fast Enough to Engender Job Creation

'85IIIIIIV'86IIIIIIV'87IIIIIIV'88IIIIIIV'89IIIIIIV'90IIIIIIV'91IIIIIIV'92IIIIIIV'93IIIIIIV'94IIIIIIV'95IIIIIIV'96IIIIIIV'97IIIIIIV'98IIIIIIV'99IIIIIIV'00IIIIIIV'01IIIIIIV'02IIIIIIV'03IIIIIIV'04IIIIIIV'05IIIIIIV'06IIIIIIV'07IIIIIIV'08IIIIIIV'09IIIIIIV'10IIIIIIV'11IIIIIIV'12IIIIIIV'13IIIIIIV-2400

-2000

-1600

-1200

-800

-400

0

400

800

1200

-7

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Nonfarm Payrolls vs. Real GDP

Payrolls (lhs)

Real GDP (rhs)

Payrolls ('000) GDP YOY%

Source: BEA, BLS NFP T <Index>, GDP CYOY <Index>


Economy Operating Well Below its Potential

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015$5,500

$6,500

$7,500

$8,500

$9,500

$10,500

$11,500

$12,500

$13,500

$14,500

Potential GDP

Real GDP

Real GDP (Blns) vs. Real Potential GDP (Blns)

Source: BEA, CBO, Bloomberg

CBOPGDPR <Index>, GDP CHWG <Index>


Hiring not Exactly Brisk

Construction

Mining & Logging

Manufacturing

Wholesale Trade

Retail Trade

Transportation

Utilities

Information

Financial

Professional

Temporary

Education

Healthcare

Leisure/Hospitality

Others Services

Government

-800 -500 -200 100 400 700 1,000 1,300 1,600 1,900 2,200 2,500

329

209

554

344

924

392

3

-50

181

2,211

802

286

1,146

1,348

184

-613

Jobs Created Since Depression Trough*, in thousands

Source: BLS *February 2010


If GDP Dips to 2.0% -- It’s Recession Time

1948QIIQIIIQIV1949QIIQIIIQIV1950QIIQIIIQIV1951QIIQIIIQIV1952QIIQIIIQIV1953QIIQIIIQIV1954QIIQIIIQIV1955QIIQIIIQIV1956QIIQIIIQIV1957QIIQIIIQIV1958QIIQIIIQIV1959QIIQIIIQIV1960QIIQIIIQIV1961QIIQIIIQIV1962QIIQIIIQIV1963QIIQIIIQIV1964QIIQIIIQIV1965QIIQIIIQIV1966QIIQIIIQIV1967QIIQIIIQIV1968QIIQIIIQIV1969QIIQIIIQIV1970QIIQIIIQIV1971QIIQIIIQIV1972QIIQIIIQIV1973QIIQIIIQIV1974QIIQIIIQIV1975QIIQIIIQIV1976QIIQIIIQIV1977QIIQIIIQIV1978QIIQIIIQIV1979QIIQIIIQIV1980QIIQIIIQIV1981QIIQIIIQIV1982QIIQIIIQIV1983QIIQIIIQIV1984QIIQIIIQIV1985QIIQIIIQIV1986QIIQIIIQIV1987QIIQIIIQIV1988QIIQIIIQIV1989QIIQIIIQIV1990QIIQIIIQIV1991QIIQIIIQIV1992QIIQIIIQIV1993QIIQIIIQIV1994QIIQIIIQIV1995QIIQIIIQIV1996QIIQIIIQIV1997QIIQIIIQIV1998QIIQIIIQIV1999QIIQIIIQIV2000QIIQIIIQIV2001QIIQIIIQIV2002QIIQIIIQIV2003QIIQIIIQIV2004QIIQIIIQIV2005QIIQIIIQIV2006QIIQIIIQIV2007QIIQIIIQIV2008QIIQIIIQIV2009QIIQIIIQIV2010QIIQIIIQIV2011QIIQIIIQIV2012QIIQIIIQIV2013QII-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Real GDP (Y/Y %)

Source: NBER, BEA, Bloomberg GDP CYOY <Index>


Manufacturing Gains Still Not Generating Jobs

1995 2000 2005 201010,000

11,000

12,000

13,000

14,000

15,000

16,000

17,000

18,000

19,000

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

MFG Payrolls (lhs) MFG IP (rhs)

Industrial Production MFG vs. Manufacturing Jobs ('000)

Source: Federal Reserve, BLS USMMMANU <Index>, IP <Index>


Won’t Get Any Jobs from Housing

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

1,200

Spending (lhs)

Res Construction Employment (rhs)

Residential Construction Spending ($ mls)Residential Construction Employment (thousands)

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bloomberg

USECBURB <Index>, CNSTRESI <Index>


Sideways Movements in Housing

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

Source: Mortgage Bankers Association

Mortgage Bankers Association'sPurchase Applications Index

MBAVPRCH <Index>


Retailers Headed Out of the Malls

2000 2003 2006 2009 20124.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

10.0%

11.0%

12.0%

Regional & Strip Mall Vacancies

Strip Mall Regional & Superregional Malls

Source: Reis Inc.

Earnings/Analyst Conference Calls

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Bloomberg Orange Book

Summary of Commentary on ____________________

CurrentEconomic

Conditions

By Corporation

from earning statements commencing July 1, 2010

ORANGE <GO>


What is Being Said…“And so we're still seeing that midnight shopping in our stores when that EBT card, it's like a debit card, when it is ready and it is funded, there are people who are in the store at midnight because they know it turns on. And they have shopped from like 10:45 to midnight and they're waiting for that card and then our lines open up. And we've had some of our busiest ours at midnight.”

Rosalind Brewer, EVP, Wal-Mart April 12, 2011“I think the most telling indicator for us that economic weakness and employment is the key issue driving soft volumes, is the fact that we continue to see, as – in contrast to the historical norms, we continue to see volume pick up heavily at the beginning of each month, and then steadily erode through the month, being particularly soft in the last week to 10 days of the month. That just tells us that people are running out of money.”

Gregg Engles, CEO Dean Foods May 10, 2011

“Now clearly when it gets to the end of the month and they've run out of dollars and the first of month gets there, you'll see some pick-up in sales. I would say it's not as dramatic as it was two years ago due mostly to the fact that not 100% of those benefits are getting loaded on to people's cards..”

J. Michael Schlotman, CFO, SVP Kroger May 17, 2011


What is Still Being Said…

“…know that 15% of the Americans are living on food stamps today. And we know that most of them, even after two or three weeks, are short of money...”

Dick Boer, CEO Koninklijke Ahold Nv November 28, 2012

“…the value customers are still stretched. We still are getting a lot of food stamps, a very high dollar amount and a very high percentage amount, and that is definitely

problematic.” David Dillion, CEO Kroger October 16, 2012

“…Food stamp usage continues to grow…for a fragile consumer that's seeing volatility in the economy, is worried about the state of their job or finding a job, maybe using food stamps to feed their family and is trying to figure out how to put fuel in the car,

it's still a very challenging and uncertain environment.” Brian Cornell, CEO, Pepsi Americas September 5, 2012


Bloomberg Orange Book Sentiment Index Below 50

June 15, 2012 October 15, 2012 February 15, 2013 June 15, 201340

42

44

46

48

50

52

54

Bloomberg Orange Book Sentiment Index

Source: Bloomberg ORBOTOTL <Index>


Real Disposable Incomes Trending Lower

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010-4.00

-2.00

0.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

Real Disposable Personal Incomes (Y/Y%)

PIDSDCWT <Index>Source: BEA, Bloomberg

Real Disposable Personal Incomes (Y/Y%)

PIDSDCWT <Index>Source: BEA, Bloomberg


No Typo, Over 47 Million People at or Below Poverty!

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 201325,000,000

30,000,000

35,000,000

40,000,000

45,000,000

50,000,000

Supplemental Nutrition Assistance ProgramNumber of Participants

Source: U.S.D.A, Bloomberg FDSPNUM <Index>


Poverty Growing Faster than Payrolls

6/1/2009 6/1/2010 6/1/2011 6/1/2012 6/1/201390

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

135

Food Stamps

Employment

Growth in Food Stamps vs. Nonfarm Payroll Jobs

Source: USDA, BLS


Peddle too Slow, and the Bike Tips Over

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

Real Consumption Expenditures (Y/Y%)

Source: BEA, Bloomberg PCE CONC <Index>


There is No Holy Grail of Economic Indicators


‘Fab Five’ – Dining Out

'00Feb-00Mar-00Apr-00May-00Jun-00Jul-00Aug-00Sep-00Oct-00Nov-00Dec-00'01Feb-01Mar-01Apr-01May-01Jun-01Jul-01Aug-01Sep-01Oct-01Nov-01Dec-01Jan-02Feb-02Mar-02Apr-02May-02Jun-02Jul-02Aug-02Sep-02Oct-02Nov-02Dec-02'03Feb-03Mar-03Apr-03May-03Jun-03Jul-03Aug-03Sep-03Oct-03Nov-03Dec-03'04Feb-04Mar-04Apr-04May-04Jun-04Jul-04Aug-04Sep-04Oct-04Nov-04Dec-04Jan-05Feb-05Mar-05Apr-05May-05Jun-05Jul-05Aug-05Sep-05Oct-05Nov-05Dec-05'06Feb-06Mar-06Apr-06May-06Jun-06Jul-06Aug-06Sep-06Oct-06Nov-06Dec-06'07Feb-07Mar-07Apr-07May-07Jun-07Jul-07Aug-07Sep-07Oct-07Nov-07Dec-07Jan-08Feb-08Mar-08Apr-08May-08Jun-08Jul-08Aug-08Sep-08Oct-08Nov-08Dec-08'09Feb-09Mar-09Apr-09May-09Jun-09Jul-09Aug-09Sep-09Oct-09Nov-09Dec-09'10Feb-10Mar-10Apr-10May-10Jun-10Jul-10Aug-10Sep-10Oct-10Nov-10Dec-10Jan-11Feb-11Mar-11Apr-11May-11Jun-11Jul-11Aug-11Sep-11Oct-11Nov-11Dec-11'12Feb-12Mar-12Apr-12May-12Jun-12Jul-12Aug-12Sep-12Oct-12Nov-12Dec-12'13Feb-13Mar-13Apr-13May-13Jun-13Jul-13Aug-13Sep-13Oct-13Nov-13

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

Spending: Meals at Other Eating Places (Y/Y%)

Source: BEA, NBER RPCEDPMB <Index> <GO>


‘Fab Five’ – Casino Gambling

'00Feb-00Mar-00Apr-00May-00Jun-00Jul-00Aug-00Sep-00Oct-00Nov-00Dec-00'01Feb-01Mar-01Apr-01May-01Jun-01Jul-01Aug-01Sep-01Oct-01Nov-01Dec-01Jan-02Feb-02Mar-02Apr-02May-02Jun-02Jul-02Aug-02Sep-02Oct-02Nov-02Dec-02'03Feb-03Mar-03Apr-03May-03Jun-03Jul-03Aug-03Sep-03Oct-03Nov-03Dec-03'04Feb-04Mar-04Apr-04May-04Jun-04Jul-04Aug-04Sep-04Oct-04Nov-04Dec-04Jan-05Feb-05Mar-05Apr-05May-05Jun-05Jul-05Aug-05Sep-05Oct-05Nov-05Dec-05'06Feb-06Mar-06Apr-06May-06Jun-06Jul-06Aug-06Sep-06Oct-06Nov-06Dec-06'07Feb-07Mar-07Apr-07May-07Jun-07Jul-07Aug-07Sep-07Oct-07Nov-07Dec-07Jan-08Feb-08Mar-08Apr-08May-08Jun-08Jul-08Aug-08Sep-08Oct-08Nov-08Dec-08'09Feb-09Mar-09Apr-09May-09Jun-09Jul-09Aug-09Sep-09Oct-09Nov-09Dec-09'10Feb-10Mar-10Apr-10May-10Jun-10Jul-10Aug-10Sep-10Oct-10Nov-10Dec-10Jan-11Feb-11Mar-11Apr-11May-11Jun-11Jul-11Aug-11Sep-11Oct-11Nov-11Dec-11'12Feb-12Mar-12Apr-12May-12Jun-12Jul-12Aug-12Sep-12Oct-12Nov-12Dec-12'13Feb-13Mar-13Apr-13May-13Jun-13Jul-13Aug-13Sep-13Oct-13Nov-13-16

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

16

20

24

Spending: Casino Gambling Y/Y%

Source: Bureau Economic Analysis, NBER RPCEDCAS <Index> <GO>


‘Fab Five” – Jewelry & Watches


-16

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

16

Spending: Jewelry & Watches Y/Y%

Source: Bureau Economic Analysis, NBER RPCEDJRY <Index> <GO>


‘Fab Five’ – Cosmetics & Perfumes


-6

-3

0

3

6

9

12

Spending: Cosmetics & Perfumes (Y/Y%)

Source: Bureau Economic Analysis, NBER RPCEDCOS <Index> <GO>


‘Fab Five’ – Women’s Dresses


-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Spending: Women's & Girls' Clothing (Y/Y%)

Source: Bureau Economic Analysis, NBER RPCEDWGC <Index> <GO>


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Economic Indicators to Watch The Disturbing Economic Tea Leaves Nashville, TN Thursday, January 30,...

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