Economic Indicators October 2013

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Economic Indicators

Last update 18.10.2013

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Economic Outlook Monthly Overview – October 2013

Europe:

• Consensus October GDP forecast for WE remained on 0,0% for 2013 and on 1,3% for 2014.

• Both, the EU industrial confidence and the consumer confidence indicator improved again in

September.

• The IFO Business Climate index for Germany rose for the 5th time in September. While the

assessment of the current business situation was slightly less favorably than in the previous

month, the six-months business expectations were once again more optimistic.

• The ECB kept its main interest rate on hold on October 2. Recovery remains weak , fragile and

uneven, inflation fell to 1,1%, notably below its 2% target.

US:

• Consensus October GDP forecast for the US remained on 1,6% for 2013 and decreased from

2,7% to 2,6% for 2014.

• US recovery prospects have been hit by the government shut-down, caused by the dispute

over the FY 2014 budget. Dysfunctional, polarised political wrangling has hurt confidence in the

US. Key fiscal issues were again being postponed to a later date.

Japan:

• The October GDP growth forecast for Japan again remained stable on 1,9% for 2013 and on

1,7% for 2014.

• The government took a small step forward in its plan to reduce Japan’s debt burden after it

proceeded with a much discussed sales tax increase earlier this month. The levy, which will be

implemented in April 2014 will increase from the current 5% rate to 8%.

3 | Economic Indicators |

Eurostat Data


Economic Indicators – GDP EU 27

Source: Eurostat Sep 13

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

'07

Q1

'08

Q1

'09

Q1

'10

Q1

'11

Q1

12

Q1

13

Q1

%

GDP for the EU 27 countries at constant prices quarter vs. same quarter of last year


Economic Indicators – GDP EU 27


-2,5

-2

-1,5

-1

-0,5

0

0,5

1

'07Q

1

'08 Q

1

'09 Q

1

'10 Q

1

'11 Q

1

12

Q1

13

Q1

%

GDP for the EU 27 countries at constant prices quarter on quarter


Economic Indicators –EU 27 Consumer Price Index

Source: Eurostat Oct 13

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

3,5

4

4,5

08

/1

09

/1

10

/1

11

/1

12

/1

13

/1

1,3

%

The harmonized index of consumer prices is the result of the collaboration

between Eurostat and National Statistical Institutes of the Member States.


Economic Indicators – ECB interest rate

Source: ECB, FED Oct 13

Sep.13; 1,1

Oct 13; 0,5

Oct 13; 0,25

-0,5

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

3,0

3,5

4,0

4,5

Jan

08

Ju

ly 0

8

Jan

09

Ju

l.09

Jan

10

Ju

l.10

Jan

11

Ju

ly 1

1

Jan

12

Ju

l.12

Jan

13

Ju

l.13

%

ECB short-term rate

Eurozone inflation

FED rate


Economic Indicators –EU 27 Unemployment Rate


10,9

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

Jan

08

Jan

09

Jan

10

Jan

11

Jan

12

Jan

13

%

Unemployment rate for EU 27 countries


Economic Indicators – Industrial Confidence Ind EU


-40

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10Jan

06

Jan

07

Jan

08

Jan

09

Jan

10

Jan

11

Jan

12

Jan

13

Jan

14

Industrial confidence within EU 27 improved again in September.

The Industrial Confidence Indicator is the arithmetic average of the answers to the

questions on production expectations, order books and stocks.


Economic Indicators – Consumer Confidence Ind EU


Consumer Confidence within EU 27 improved again in September.

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

Ja

n 0

6

Jan

07

Jan

08

Jan

09

Jan

10

Jan

11

Jan

12

Jan

13

Jan

14

The Consumer Confidence Indicator is the arithmetic average of the answers to the questions

on the financial situation of households and general economic situation (past and future)

together with that on the advisability of making major purchases.


Economic Indicators – Capacity Utilization

in Manufacturing Industry in % - EU 27

Source: Eurostat Aug 13

60

65

70

75

80

85

04

Q1

05

Q1

06

Q1

07

Q1

08

Q1

09

Q1

10

Q1

11

Q1

12

Q1

13

Q1

78,9

%

The capacity utilization in manufacturing industry gives the level of capacity utilization

in percent, as assessed by managers in manufacturing industry.


Ifo Data


Economic Indicators – IFO World Economic Climate

Source: IFO Aug 13

The Ifo World Economic climate fell slightly in Q3 2013

This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.


Economic Indicators – IFO European Economic Climate

Source: IFO Aug 13

The economic climate for Europe brightened slightly in Q3 2013.



Economic Indicators – IFO NA Economic Climate

Source: IFO Aug 13



Economic Indicators – GDP Forecast Euro Area

Source: IFO Oct 13


Economic Indicators – GDP Forecast Germany

Source: IFO Oct 13


Economic Indicators – Exchange rate $ vs €

Source: IFO June 13


Economic Indicators –

Ifo business situation and 6 month expectations

Source: IFO Oct 13

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

Jan

08

Jan

09

Jan

10

Jan

11

Jan

12

Jan

13

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

Jan

08

Jan

09

Jan

10

Jan

11

Jan

12

Jan

13

Business situation 6 months expectations

The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business situation index shows the current evaluation of the

economic situation, while the 6 month expectations index shows the expectations of the companies for the next

6 months. Over 7000 companies are being interviewed.

The Ifo Business Climate Index for Germany rose for the 5th time in succession. Although

companies assessed their current business situation slightly less favorably, their business

expectations were once again more optimistic. The German economy made a confident start

to the autumn.


Economic Indicators – IFO Assessment of Current

Business Situation

Source: IFO Oct 13

The Ifo Business Climate Index for Germany rose for the 5th time in succession. Although

companies assessed their current business situation slightly less favorably, their business

expectations were once again more optimistic. The German economy made a confident start

to the autumn.


Economic Indicators – IFO business climate index

printing industry

Source: IFO Sep 13, bundesverband druck und medien

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

Jan

08

Jan

09

Jan

10

Jan

11

Jan

12

Jan

13

Jan

14

The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business climate index for the printing industry is

based on a monthly representative questionnaire to 300 German printers.

The business climate within the printing industry improved slightly to -8 in August.


Economic Indicators – IFO business climate index

printing industry

The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business climate index for the printing industry is

based on a monthly representative questionnaire to 300 German printers.

Business Development at German Printers – August 2013:

The assessment of the current business situation in the printing

industry improved compared to the last month to now -12%, which is

slightly worse than in the same month of last year.

The business climate – an indicator for the development in

the next quarter – improved slightly to now -8%.

The business expectations for the coming 6 months worsened by

10%points to now -3%. In the same month of last year expectations

were still positive at +8%.

Source: IFO Sep 13, bundesverband druck und medien


Zenith Data


Advertising Growth – Zenith 9/13 Press release

Source: ZenithOptimedia 9/13

Economic Indicators October 2013

Marketing

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