Economic indicators November 2014

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Economic Indicators

Last update 14.11.2014

| Economic Indicators | 2

Economic Outlook Monthly Overview – October 2014

Europe:

• Consensus November GDP forecast for WE came down once again by 0,1%point to 1,2% for

2014 and remained stable on 1,5% for 2015.

• The EU industrial confidence and the consumer confidence both improved slightly in October.

• The IFO Business Climate index for Germany again fell in October – the outlook for the German

economy continued to deteriorate.

• The ECB left interest rates unchanged at 0,05% on November 6, with Mario Draghi indicating

that the bank is working on additional measures to loosen monetary conditions. Deflationary

pressures are threatening regional GDP fundamentals.

US:

• Consensus November GDP forecast for the US remained on 2,2% for 2014 and came down from

3,1% to now 3,0% for 2015.

• The FED announced the end of its bond-buying program in late October, halting nearly six years

of aggressive monetary policy since the onset of the Great Recession in 2008. This latest

decisions points to confidence in the recovery, although interest rates will be left at 0,25% for

some time.

Japan:

• The November GDP growth forecast for Japan came down from 1,1% to 1,0% for 2014 and

improved from 1,2% to 1,3% for 2015.

• The Bank of Japan expanded its quantitative easing program on October 31. This was viewed

as admission that GDP growth and inflation have not picked up as much as expected. April’s

sales tax hike certainly dented GDP.

3 | Economic Indicators |

Eurostat Data


Economic Indicators – GDP EU 28

Source: Eurostat Nov 14

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

08

Q1

09

Q1

10

Q1

11

Q1

12

Q1

13

Q1

14

Q1

%

GDP for the EU 28 countries at constant prices quarter vs. same quarter of last year


Economic Indicators – GDP EU 28


-2,5

-2

-1,5

-1

-0,5

0

0,5

1

08

Q1

09

Q1

10

Q1

11

Q1

12

Q1

13

Q1

14

Q1

%

GDP for the EU 28 countries at constant prices quarter on quarter


Economic Indicators –EU 28 Consumer Price Index


0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

3,5

4

4,5

08

/1

09

/1

10

/1

11

/1

12

/1

13

/1

14

/1

15

/1

0,5

%

The harmonized index of consumer prices is the result of the collaboration

between Eurostat and National Statistical Institutes of the Member States.


Economic Indicators – ECB interest rate

Source: ECB, FED, Eurostat Nov 14

Oct ; 0,4

Nov ; 0,05Nov ; 0,25

-0,5

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

3,0

3,5

4,0

4,5

Jan

08

Ju

ly 0

8

Jan

09

Ju

l.09

Jan

10

Ju

l.10

Jan

11

Ju

ly 1

1

Jan

12

Ju

l.12

Jan

13

Ju

l.13

Jan

14

Ju

l.14

Jan

15

%

ECB short-term rate

Eurozone inflation

FED rate


Economic Indicators –EU 28 Unemployment Rate


10,1

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

Ja

n 0

8

Ja

n 0

9

Ja

n 1

0

Ja

n 1

1

Ja

n 1

2

Ja

n 1

3

Ja

n 1

4

Ja

n 1

5

%

Unemployment rate for EU 28 countries


Economic Indicators – Industrial Confidence Ind EU


-40

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10Jan

08

Jan

09

Jan

10

Jan

11

Jan

12

Jan

13

Jan

14

Jan

15

Industrial confidence within EU 28 improved slightly in October, breaking the

downwards trend of the previous months.

The Industrial Confidence Indicator is the arithmetic average of the answers to the

questions on production expectations, order books and stocks.


Economic Indicators – Consumer Confidence Ind EU


Consumer Confidence within EU 28 improved slightly in October, breaking the

negative trend of the previous months.

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

Jan

08

Jan

09

Jan

10

Jan

11

Jan

12

Jan

13

Jan

14

Jan

15

The Consumer Confidence Indicator is the arithmetic average of the answers to the questions

on the financial situation of households and general economic situation (past and future)

together with that on the advisability of making major purchases.


Economic Indicators – Capacity Utilization

in Manufacturing Industry in % - EU 27


60

65

70

75

80

85

04

Q1

05

Q1

06

Q1

07

Q1

08

Q1

09

Q1

10

Q1

11

Q1

12

Q1

13

Q1

14

Q1

80,3

%

The capacity utilization in manufacturing industry gives the level of capacity utilization

in percent, as assessed by managers in manufacturing industry.


Ifo Data


Economic Indicators – IFO World Economic Climate

Source: IFO Nov 14

The Ifo World Economic climate deteriorated in Q4 2014. The upswing in the world

Economy is suffering a setback.

This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.


Economic Indicators – IFO European Economic Climate

Source: IFO Nov 14

The economic climate in Europe showed a marked decline in Q4 2014.

This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.


Economic Indicators – IFO NA Economic Climate

Source: IFO Nov 14 This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.


Economic Indicators – IFO Asia Economic Climate

Source: IFO Nov 14 This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.


Economic Indicators – GDP Forecast Euro Area

Source: IFO Oct 14


Economic Indicators – GDP Forecast Germany

Source: IFO Oct 14


Economic Indicators – Exchange rate $ vs €

Source: IFO Sept 14


Economic Indicators –

Ifo business situation and 6 month expectations

Source: IFO Nov 14

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

Jan

08

Jan

09

Jan

10

Jan

11

Jan

12

Jan

13

Jan

14

Jan

15

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

Jan

08

Jan

09

Jan

10

Jan

11

Jan

12

Jan

13

Jan

14

Jan

15

Business situation 6 months expectations

The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business situation index shows the current evaluation of the

economic situation, while the 6 month expectations index shows the expectations of the companies for the next

6 months. Over 7000 companies are being interviewed.

The Ifo Business Climate Index for Germany continued to fall in October. Assessments of the

current business situation were once again less favorable than last month. Expectations with

regard to the six-month business outlook continued to cloud over. The outlook for the German

economy deteriorated once again.


Economic Indicators – IFO Assessment of Current

Business Situation

Source: IFO Nov 14

The Ifo Business Climate Index for Germany continued to fall in October. Assessments of the

current business situation were once again less favorable than last month. Expectations with

regard to the six-month business outlook continued to cloud over. The outlook for the German

economy deteriorated once again.


Economic Indicators – IFO business climate index

printing industry

Source: IFO Nov 14, bundesverband druck und medien

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

Jan

08

Jan

09

Ja

n 1

0

Jan

11

Jan

12

Jan

13

Jan

14

Jan

15

The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business climate index for the printing industry is

based on a monthly representative questionnaire to 300 German printers.

The business climate within the printing industry deteriorated from +7 to -6 in October


Economic Indicators – IFO business climate index

printing industry

The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business climate index for the printing industry is

based on a monthly representative questionnaire to 300 German printers.

Business Development at German Printers – October 2014:

The assessment of the current business situation in the printing

industry decreased somewhat from +21 to now +17, keeping its

second highest level since the begin of the year.

The business climate – an indicator for the development in

the next quarter – came down by 13%points.

The business expectations for the coming 6 months deteriorated

significantly

Source: IFO Nov 14, bundesverband druck und medien


Zenith Data


Global Advertising Growth

Source: ZenithOptimedia 9/14


Regional Advertising Development



Global Advertising Markets



Advertising by medium


Economic indicators November 2014

Marketing

Transcript of Economic indicators November 2014