Economic Indicators: May 1977 - St. Louis Fed · Economic Indicators May 1977 ... s and sen Federal...

95th Congress, 1st Session

Economic Indicators

May 1977

Prepared for the Joint Economic Committee by the

Council of Economic Advisers

UNITED STATES

GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE

WASHINGTON : 1977

Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE(Created pursuant to Sec. 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.)

RICHARD BOLLING, Missouri, ChairmanHUBERT H. HUMPHREY, Minnesota, Vice Chairman

HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVESHENRY S. REUSS (Wisconsin)WILLIAM S. MOORHEAD (Pennsylvania)LEE H. HAMILTON (Indiana)GILLIS W. LONG (Louisiana)OTIS G. PIKE (New York)CLARENCE J. BROWN (Ohio)GARRY BROWN (Michigan)MARGARET M. HECKLER (Massachusetts)JOHN H. ROUSSELOT (California)

SENATEJOHN SPARKMAN (Alabama)WILLIAM PROXMIRE (Wisconsin)ABRAHAM RIBICOFF (Connecticut)LLOYD M. BENTSEN, JR. (Texas)EDWARD M. KENNEDY (Massachusetts)JACOB K. JAVITS (New York)WILLIAM' V. ROTH, JR. (Delaware)JAMES A. McCLURE (Idaho)ORRIN G. HATCH (Utah)

JOHN R. STARK, Executive Director

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERSCHARLES L. SCHULTZE, Chairman

LYLE E. GRAMLEYWILLIAM D. NORDHAUS

[PUBLIC LAW 120—81sx Congress; CHAPTER 237—1st SESSION]

JOINT RESOLUTION [S J. Res. 55]

To print the monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators"

Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled. That the JointEconomic Committee be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators," and that asufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the Sergeant atArms of the Senate; the Clerk, Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives; two copies tothe libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to the Joint EconomicCommittee; and the required numbers of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for distribution to depositorylibraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printed for sale to the public.

Approved June 23, 1949.

Charts drawn by Art Production Branch, Office of the Secretary, Department of Commerce.

Economic Indicators, published monthly, is available at 85 cents a single copyor by subscription at $10.10 per year ($2.55 additional for foreign mailing) from:

SUPERINTENDENT OF DOCUMENTSGOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE

WASHINGTON D.C. 20402


TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDINGGROSS NATIONAL PRODUCTAccording to revised estimates for the first quarter, gross national product rose $51.0 billion or at an annual rate of12.2 percent. Real output (GNP adjusted for price changes) increased at an annual rate of 6.4 percent. The implicitdeflator rose at a 5.5 percent annual rate.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS. (RATIO SCALE)

1,800

1,600

1,400

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIOSCALE)

1,800

1,600

1,400

1,200 1,200

1,000 1,000

1969 I 1970

SOURCE: DEPARTMFNT OF COMMERCE

1976 1977

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of current dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates!

Period

196619671968196919701971197219731974197519761975: III__

IV___1976: I

IIlidIV._.

77:I_.._

Grossna-

tionalprod-uct

753.0796.3868, 5935. 5982.4

1, 063. 41, 171. 11, 306. 61, 413. 21, 516. 31, 691. 61, 548. 71, 588. 21, 636. 21, 675. 21, 709. 81, 745. 1

1, 796. 1

Per-sonalcon-

sump-tionex-

pend-itures

464. 8490.4535. 9579.7618. 8668.2733.0809.9887.5973. 2

1, 079. 7987.3

1, 012. 01, 043. 61, 064. 71, 088. 51, 122. 0

1, 159. 1

Grossprivatedomes-

ticinvest-ment

124. 5120.8131.5146.2140.8160. 0188.3220.0215.0183. 7239.6196.7201.4229.6239. 2247.0242. 8

267.9

Exportgooc

Netex-

ports

5. 14.92.31.83.91. 6

-3.37. 17.5

20. 56.6

21.421. 08. 49.34.742

-9.3

s and imp:s and ser

Ex-ports

42. 845.649. 954.762.565. 672. 7

101.6144. 4148. 1162.7148.2153. 7154. 1160. 3167.7168.5

170.5

)orts ofvices

Im-ports

37.740.647. 752.958.564. 075.994.4

136.9127. 6156. 0126.8132. 7145. 7151.0163.0164.3

179.8

Goi

Total

158.7180.2198.7207.9218.9233.7253. 1269.5303.3339. 0365. 6343. 2353.8354. 7362. 0369.6376.2

378.5

/ernment

Total

78.890.998. 097.595.696. 2

102. 1102.2111. 6124. 4133.4124.6130. 4129. 2131.2134.5138.9

138.2

purchasesservices

Federal

Na-tional

de-fense l

60. 371.576. 976.373.570.273.573.577.384. 388.284 687 186 286 988 591 3

91.5

of goods

Non-de-

fense

18. 519. 521. 221. 222. 126. 028.628.734.340. 145. 240.043.242. 944.246.047.6

46.7

and

Stateandlocal

79.889.3

100.7110. 4123.2137. 5151. 0167. 3191.6214. 5232. 2218.6223.4225. 5230.9235.0237.4

240. 3

Finalsales

738.7786. 2860.8926.2978. 6

1, 057. 11, 161. 71, 288. 61, 402. 51, 531. 01, 679. 71, 550. 61, 592. 51, 621. 41, 659. 21, 694. 71, 743. 4

1, 782. 4

i This category corresponds clcsely with budget outlays for national defense,shown on p. 33.

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.


GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 1972 DOLLARS

[Billions of 1972 dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Period

19661967196819691970197119721973197419751976

1975 : III. _IV—

1976:1 —II-,I I I __IV—

1977:1

Grossnationalproduct

981.01, 007. 71, 051. 81, 078. 81, 075. 31, 107. 51, 171. 11, 235. 01, 214. 01, 191. 71, 264. 7

1, 209. 31, 219. 2

1, 246. 31, 260. 01, 272. 21, 280. 4

1, 300. 3

Per-sonalcon-

sump-tion

expend-itures

586. 1603.2633.4655. 4668.9691.9733.0767.7759. 1770. 3813.7

775. 3783.9

800.7808.6815.7829.7

843.8

Gross ]ii

Non-resi-

dentialfixed

106. 1103.5108. 0114.3110.0108.0116.8131.0128.5111.4115.7

110. 1110.5

112.6114.9117.5117.9

122.3

mvate doavestmen

Resi-dentialfixed

38.537.242.843.240.452.262. 059.745.038. 447.1

39.641. 9

44. 145.747.451. 1

51.6

mesti ct

Changein busi-ness in-vento-

ries

16.712.08.7

10.64.36.69.4

16. 58.5

— 12. 08.1

-1.0-5.5

10.411.110.2

.9

9.2

Expa]

M£»+INCt

exports

4.33.5-.4

-1.31.4

-.6-3.3

7.616.522 616.0

22.823. 1

16.616.015.715.5

10.9

orts of goad service

Exports

51.654.258.562.267. 167.972.787. 497.290. 696. 1

90. 793.9

93. 695.498.097.4

97.8

odss

Imports

47. 350.758.963.565.768.575.979.980.768. 180. 1

67.970.8

77.079.482.381.8

86.9

Governrgood

Total

229. 3248.3259.2256.7250.2249.4253. 1252. 5256.4261.0264. 1

262.4265.2

261. 9263.6265.5265.3

262.4

nent pures and sen

Federal

112.5125.3128.3121.8110.7103.9102. 196.695. 395.796.7

95.697. 2

95.496.097.398. 1

96.4

bases ofrices

Stateandlocal

116.8123. 1130.9134.9139.5145.5151.0155.9161. 1165.2167.4

166.9168.0

166.6167.7168.2167.3

166.0

Finalsales

964.3995.7

1, 043. 11, 068. 21, 071. 01, 100. 91, 161. 71, 218. 51, 205. 51, 203. 71, 256. 6

1, 210. 21, 224. 7

1, 235. 91, 248. 81, 262. 01, 279. 5

1, 291. 1

IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATORS FOR GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT

[1972=100]

Period

196619671968.19691970197119721973197419751976

1975:111IV

1976: IIIIIIIV

1977:1

Grossnationalproduct

76.7679.0282.5786.7291.3696.02

100. 00105. 80116. 41127. 25133. 75

128. 07130. 27

131. 29132. 96134. 40136. 30

138. 14

Personal

Total

79.381.384.688.592.596.6

100.0105.5116.9126.3132.7

127.3129. 1

130. 3131.7133.4135.2

137.4

consump

.

goods

85.787.490.793. 195.599.0

100.0101. 6108.3117.7124.4

118.2120.2

121.8123.8124.9127.0

128.9

tion expei

Non-durablegoods

80. 181.985.389.493.696.6

100.0107 9124.0133.7138.0

135. 1136.2

136.4136.9138.5139.9

142.2

iditures

Services

76.578.882. 086. 190.595.8

100.0104.7113.5122. 7131.0

123.6125.9

128.0129.8132.01340

136.2

Gross idom<

invest

Nonres-idential

fixed

76.879.382.686.691.396.4

100.0103.8116. 1132. 1138.2

132.7134.5

136.2137.5138.7140.5

142.2

mvate3StiCment

Resi-dentialfixed

74.677.080.787.790.694.9

100.0110.8122.3133.2143.9

132.8135. 9

139.0142.9145.3147.7

155.3

Exporimports

and se

Exports

82.884.085.387.993. 196.6

100.0116.2148.6163.4169.3

163.4163.7

164.6168. 1171.1173.0

174.3

ts andof goodsrvices

Imports

79.780. 180.983.389. 193.5

100.0118.2169.6187.4194.7

186.6187.3

189.2190.4198. 1200.8

206.8

Governrrehases c

and se

Federal

70.172.676.480.086.492.6

100.0105.8117.1130.0138.0

130.4134.2

135.4136.7138.3141.6

143.3

tent pur->f goodsrvices

Stateandlocal

68.472.576.981.988.394.5

100. 0107.3119.0129.8138.7

131.0132.9

135.4137.7139.7141.9

144. 8



CHANGES IN GNP AND GNP PRICE MEASURES[Percent change from previous period; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Period

19661967196819691970197119721973197419751976

1975: IIIIV

1976: IIIIIIIV

1977: I

Cur-rentdol-lars

9.45.89.17.75.08.2

10. 111.68.27.3

11.6

19: 110.6

12. 69.98. 58.5

12. 2

Gross i

Con-stant(1972)dol-lars

5.92.74.42.6-.33.05.75.5

-1.7-1.8

6. 1

11.43.3

9.24.53.92.6

6.4

[national p

Im-plicitpricede-

flator

3.32.94.55.05.45. 14. 15. 8

10.09. 35. 1

7. 07. 1

3.25.24.45.8

5.5

roduct

Chainpriceindex

3. 13.04. 45.05.35.04. 16.0

10. 09.25.4

7 36.4

4.35.44.65.7

6.5

Fixed-weight-

edpriceindex(1972

weights)

2.93.04.35. 05.24.94.06.0

10.09. 25.4

7.36.6

4.25.24.65.8

6.8

Cur-rentdol-lars

9.65.79. 17.85.08. 1

10. 111.57.87.7

11.4

19. 110.8

12. 210. 18. 28. 4

12. 3

Gross c

Con-stant(1972)dol-lars

6. 12.74.42. 6-.32.85. 85. 4

-1.7-1.7

6. 1

11.33.4

9.04. 63.82.4

6.6

lomestic {

Im-plicitpricede-

flator

3. 33.04.55. 15.35. 14. 15. 79.69. 55. 1

7.07. 1

3.05.34.25.8

5. 4

>roduct

Chainpriceindex

3. 13. 14.45.05.35.04. 15.99.79.35.4

7.46.4

4.35.44.45.7

6.4

Fixed-weight-

edpriceindex(1972

weights)

3.03.04.45.05.24.94.05.99.79.25.5

7.46.7

4.25.34.45.8

6.7

NOTE.—Annual changes from previous year and quarterly changes from pre- Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis,vious quarter.

NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS—OUTPUT, COSTS, AND PROFITS[Quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Period

196619671968196919701971197219731974197519761975: I I I__

IV—1976: I

IL_._III__IV._.

1977 : ! * > _ _

Gross dprodi

nonfinGorp<busi

(billicdoll

Currentdollars

430.7452. 9498.4541.8560.6602.5671. 0752. 0810.0870. 4981.5892.0916. 1949. 0972. 8993.8

1, 010. 31, 038. 5

omesticict ofancialsrateness>ns ofars)

1972dollars

532.9545. 8581.6607.3600.6619.3671.0720. 4698.7676. 8726.2688.9696. 1713.9725. 7731.5733.9744. 1

C

Totalcostand

profit 2

0. 808.830. 857.892. 933.973

1.0001.0441. 1591.2861.3521.2951. 3161.3291.3411. 3591. 3771. 396

urrent-do

Capitalcon-

sumptionallow-anceswith

capitalcon-

sumptionadjust-ment

0.067.072. 074.079.088.094.093. 095. 116. 143. 149. 143. 146. 146. 147. 149. 152. 153

liar cost a

Indirectbusinesstaxes 3

0. 080.084. 089.094. 103. 110. 110. 112. 123. 138. 138. 139. 140. 136. 137. 138.142. 142

nd profit

Com-pen-

sationof

employ-ees

0.513. 535.553. 589.628.645. 661. 699. 794. 853.883

842.860. 869.876.884.904.923

per unit

Netin-

terest

0. 014. 016.017. 022.028.029. 028. 032.041. 045.049. 045. 046. 047.049.050.051.052

of outpu

Corpcinvent

capitt

Total

0. 134. 123. 124. 109.086.095. 107. 105.085

107. 132. 126. 124. 131. 132. 137. 128. 125

t (dollars]

>rate profiDry valualal consunidjustmen

Profitstax

liability

0.055.051.058.055. 045.048.050.055. 061.059.074. 066.068

072.074. 075. 077.077

) i -

ts withbion andiptionts

Profitsaftertax4

0. 078.072.066.055.041.046.057.050. 024.048.058.059. 055.059.058.062.051. 048

Outputper

hourof all

employ-ees

(1972dollars)

6. 7776. 8737. 1057. 1397. 1327.3747. 5957.7817. 5457.7568.0607.9087.8917.9718.0578. 1088. 105

Com-pen-

sationper

hourof all

employ-ees

(dol-lars)

3.4783.6763.9294. 1984.4784. 7575. 0245. 4415.9906.6137. 1206. 6616. 7856.9267.0557. 1707. 326

tttput is measured by gross domestic product of nonfmancial corporatefess in 1972 dollars.ais is equal to the deflator for gross domestic product cf nonfinancial cor-

porate business with the decimal point shifted two places to the left.3 Indirect business tax and nontax liability plus business transfer payments

less subsidies.

4 With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments.

Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and De-partment of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics).


NATIONAL INCOME[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Period

196619671968 .19691970197119721973 ..1974197519761975: III

IV-1976: I-

IIIIIIV _

1977: I*

Na-tional

income

622.2655. 8714. 4767. 9798.4858. 1951.9

1, 064. 61, 135. 71, 207. 61, 348. 41, 233. 41, 264. 61, 304. 71, 337. 41, 362. 51, 389. 31, 431. 4

Com-pensa-tion of

em-pi oy-ees 1

439.3471. 9519.8571.4609. 2650.3715. 1799.2875. 8928.8

1, 028. 4935. 2963. 1994. 4

1, 017. 21, 037. 51, 064. 51, 097. 7

Proprimcom<

inventortion anc

consunadjust

Farm

13. 612. 112. 013.913.914. 318.032.025. 824. 922.829. 228.321.927. 521. 720.324.0

etors'3 withy valua-capital

aptionments

Non-farm

46.748.951. 452.351.253.458. 160.461. 165.373.866. 369.071.472. 874.476.879.6

Rental

of per-

withcapital

con-sump-tion

adjust-ment

18.219.418. 618. 118. 620. 121. 521. 621. 022. 423.522. 422.923.323. 123. 424.325. 1

Corporand

Total

82.579. 385.881.467.977. 292. 199. 184.891. 6

117.8105. 3105.6115. 1116.4122.0117.8116.2

ate profitscapital co

Profitsvaluatand ^

consum

Total

78,675. 682. 177. 966.476.989. 697. 287.8

103. 1133.3117.9119. 1129.6131.8137.6134.2133.1

with inv(nsumptioi

with invcion adjusiwithout caption adji

Profitsbefore

tax

80.777. 385. 683.471.582.096. 2

115. 8127.6114. 5147. 9126. 9131.3141. 1146.2150. 2154. 2156.3

mtory vali adjustm

mtorytmentpitalistment

Inven-tory

valua-tion

adjust-ment

2. 1-1. 7-3.4-5.5-5. 1-5.0-6.6

-18.6-39. 8-11. 4-14.6-9. 0

-12.3-11.5-14.4-12. 6-20.0-23. 1

uationents

Capitalcon-

sump-tion

adjust-ment

3.93.73.73. 51.5. 3

2.51. 9

-3.0-11. 5-15. 5-12. 6-13. 5-14.5-15.4-15.7-16. 4-17.0

Netinterest

21. 924.326. 830.837. 542.847. 052.367. 174.682.074. 975.878.680.383.585.688.9

i Includes employer contributions for social insurance. (See also p. 5.) Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES[Billions of dollars except as noted; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Period

19661967196819691970_1971__19721973 _1974197519761975: I I I _ _ _

IV__ .1976: I

III I I _ _ _I V _ _ _ _

1977: I

Tn+«*1JLOtcU.personal

con-sumptionexpendi-

tures

464. 8490. 4535. 9579. 7618.8668. 2733. 0809.9887. 5973. 2

1, 079. 7987.3

1, 012. 01, 043. 6I , 064. 71, 088. 51, 122. 01, 159. 1

D

Totaldurablegoods l

67.769.680.085.584.997.1

111.2123.7121. 6131.7156. 5136.0141. 8151.4155. 0157.6162. 0174.0

urable goo

Motorvehicles

andparts

30. 129.735.837. 734. 943.850.655.247. 953.270.756. 359.268.070.471.772.783. 6

ds

Furni-tureand

house-hold

equip-ment

27. 729. 532.635. 036.739.444,850.754.757.663.058. 260.661. 262. 362.965.666.6

Totalnon-

durablegoods *

204.7212. 6230. 4247.0264. 7277.7299. 3333. 8376. 2409. 1440. 4414. 6421.6429. 1434.8441.8456.0464.7

Nondura

Food

106. 6109. 6118.3126. 1136.3140. 6150.4168. 1189.9209. 5224. 4211.8215.2219. 2223. 1225.2230. 2236.4

ble goods

Clothingand

shoes

36. 638.241.845. 146. 650.555. 161.365. 170.075. 471. 373.073.573. 275.979.078.9

Gasolineand oil

16. 017.018. 420.422. 023.424. 927. 836.338.941.539.239.940. 140.341. 644. 144.2

Services

192. 4208. 1225.6247. 2269. 1293.4322.4352.3389. 6432. 4482.8436. 7448. 6463.2474. 9489. 1504.0520. 4

Retailnew pacars (n

of U]

Do-mes-tics

8.47.68.68.57. 18.79.39. 77.57. 18. 67. 67.78.98. 78. 68.39.5

sales ofssengerlillionsaits)

Im-ports

0. 7.8

1. 01. 11. 31.61.61.81.41.61.51.61. 41. 31. 41.51. 71.8

1 Total includes other items not shown separately. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.


|OURCES OF PERSONAL INCOME.^rsonal income rose $11.1 billion (annual rate) in April following an increase of $22.4 billion (revised) in March,Wage and salary disbursements were up $9.9 billion in April, compared with an increase of $14.0 billion (revised)in March.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)

60

40 401969 1977

^SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

(Billions 01 dollars; monthly data at seasonally adjusted annual ratesj

Period

1969197(L197119721973___197419751976

1976: A p r _ _ _ _MayJune___July___AugSept____OctNov.___Dec

1977: JanFeb____MarApr *_ _

Totalpersonalincome

745.8801.3859. 1942.5

1, 052. 41, 153. 31, 249. 71, 375. 3

1, 352. 51, 362. 91, 370. 4I, 380. 81, 385. 51, 391. 71, 404. 21,421.41, 439. 5

1, 441. 3I , 464. 21, 486. 51, 497. 6

Wageand

salarydisburse-ments 1

514. 6546.5579. 4633.8701. 3765. 0806. 7890. 4

876.9883.3883. 1892. 7897.4903.5911. 3921.5930. 1

933.4946. 9961. 0970.8

Otherlabor

income12

28.232. 036.242.048.755.562. 570. 1

68.469. 069.770.471. 171. 772. 473.274. 1

74.975. 876. 877.8

Proprietc

Farm

13.913. 914.318.032.025. 824.922.8

23. 327.531. 626.021.018. 118.619.622.7

23. 124. 124.724. 2

rs' income3

Nonfarm

52.351. 253. 458. 160.461. 165.373.8

72.772. 573.473.874.474.975.476.878. 2

77.679.781.482. 3

Rentalincome

ofpersons 4

18. 118.620. 121. 521. 621.022. 423.5

23. 323.422. 723.423. 223.624.024. 324. 5

25. 025, 225. 224. 6

Divi-dends

22. 622. 923.024. 627. 830.832. 135. 1

33.433. 935. 935. 235.435. 636. 136. 540. 5

37.037. 638. 138. 4

Personalinterestincome

55.964. 369.374.684. 1

101.4110.7123.0

120.0120. 7121.5123. 0125. 2126.9127. 8128.7128.7

129.8131. 7133. 3133.9

Transferpay-

ments 5

66.579. 994. 1

104. 1118. 9140. 3175.2191.3

188.7187. 1186.8191.3192.9192.9194. 4197.3198.0

199.4202.8206. 3206. 3

Less: Per-sonal con-tributionsfor socialinsurance

26.328. 030.834. 242. 247. 650.054.9

54. 154. 454.354.955. 255.555.956.757.3

59.059.660. 460. 9

Non-farm

personalincome 6

725.8780.7838.0917.3

1,011. 91, 117. 31, 213. 41, 340. 0

1, 317. 31, 323. 31, 326. 61, 342. 51, 351. 81, 360. 81, 372. 71, 388. 61, 403. 4

1, 404. 51, 426. 21, 447. 81, 459. 1

The total of wage and salary disbursements and other labor income differsi compensation of employees (see p. 4) in that it excludes employer contribu-

OTWWS for social insurance and the excess of wage accruals over wage disbursements.2 Consists oi employer contributions to private pension, health, and welfarefunds; workmen's compensation; directors' fees: and a few other minor items.8 With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments.

< With capital consumption adjustment.

5 Consists mainly of social insurance benefits, direci relief, and veterans pay-ments.6 Personal income exclusive of farm proprietors' income, farm wages, farm otherlabor income, and agricultural net interest.

Source: Department of Commerce. Bureau of Economic Analysis.


DISPOSITION OF PERSONAL INCOMEReal per capita disposable income increased slightly again in the first quarter.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)

1,400

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)1,400

3,000

2,000

1969 1970

* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

1977

3,000

2,000


Period

196819691970197119721973197419751976

1975: III__IV. _

1976: I. _ _ _IL_.III__IV___

1977: L _ _ _

Per-sonal

income

685. 2745. 8801.3859. 1942.5

1, 052. 41, 153. 31, 249. 71, 375. 3

1 265. 51 299. 71 331. 31 362. 01 386.01 421. 71, 464. 0

Less:Per-sonaltaxandnon-tax

pay-ments

Bil

97. 1115.4115.3116.3141.2150.8170.4168. 8193.6

174. 0179.8183.8189.5195.8205.3218.2

Equals:Dispos-

ableper-

sonalincome

lions of d

588. 1630.4685. 9742.8801.3901.7982.9

1, 080. 91, 181. 7

1, 091. 51, 119. 91, 147. 61, 172. 51, 190. 21, 216. 51, 245. 8

Less:Per-sonalout-lays l

ollars

550. 1595.3635.4685. 5751.9831.3910. 7996.9

1, 105. 2

Seas1, Oil. 11, 036. 21, 068. 01, 089. 61, 114. 31, 148. 61, 186. 1

Equals :Per-sonal

saving

38. 135. 150.657. 349.470.372. 284.076.5

onally adj80.583.779.582.975.867.859.7

Per (dispc

persona

Currentdollars

2,9303, 1113,3483,5883,8374,2854, 6395, 0625,493

usted anil5, 1055,2275, 3475,4555,5265,6375,763

japita>sablei income

1972dollars

Dol

3,4643,5153,6193, 7143,8374,0623, 9684, 0074, 140

ual rates4, 0094, 0494, 1034, 1434, 1424, 1684, 195

Per capsonal cc

tion exp<

Currentdollars

lars

2, 6702,8603,0203,2273, 5103, 8494, 1884,5585,019

4,6184,7244,8634,9545,0545, 1995, 362

ita per-msump-snditures

1972dollars

3, 1563,2343,2653,3423,5103, 6483,5823,6083,783

3, 6263,6593,7313, 7623,7883,8453,903

Percentchangein real

percapitadispos-

ableper-

sonalincome

2.81.53.02.63.35.9

-2. 31.03. 3

-6.64. 15. 44.0-. 12.52.6

Savingas per-cent ofdispos-

ableper-

sonalincome

6. 55.67.47.76.27.87.37.86.5

7.47.56.97. 16.45.64.8

Popula-tion

(thou-sands) 2

200, 706202, 677204, 878207, 053208, 846210, 410211, 901213, 540215, 118

213, 805214, 245214, 599214, 926215, 355215, 805216, 180

1 Includes personal consumption expenditures, interest paid by consumersto business, and personal transfer payn ents to lomgnerF (net).2 Includes Armed Forces abroad. Annual data are for July 1; quarterly dataare for middle oi period, interpolated from monthly data.

Source: Department ol Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Buof the Census).

6


FARM INCOMEIn the first quarter, farm income excluding inventory change rose $2.2 billion (annual rate). Including inventory changethe rise was $3.7 billion.


120

100

80

60

40

20

NET FARM INCOMEINCLUDING NET INVENTORY

CHANGE -

\ / \

\/V\

120

100

80

60

40

20

10 101969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977

* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Period

19691970.197119721973197419751976L975: III....

IV, _1976:1

IIIII____IV

1977:1

Personaby tota]

Fromall

sources

26.927.428.734.448.645. 145.544. 0

1 incomefarm po

Fromfarm

sources

12.913.013.416. 829.023. 522. 820.0

receivedpulation

Fromnonfarmsources

13.914. 415. 317.619.521.522.724. 0

Total1

56.358.660.670. 195.5

100.298.2

104.2105.299.6

101.5111. 1103.3100.9105.6

Realize

Casti

Total

Billioi

48.250.552.961.287. 192.689.694.896.590.892. 4

101.893.891.395.9

?d gross

i receiptsnarketing

Live-stockand

productsis of doll a

28.629.630.635.745. 941.442. 947.045.046.446. 649.647.244.545.3

[ncome re

froms

Crops

rs

19.621. 022.325.541. 151.346. 747.851.544. 445.852.246.646.850.6

ceived fro

Produc-tion ex-penses

42. 144.447.452.365. 672.475.580.976. 875.779.082.581.580.683. 1

m f armin

Net t(oper

Exclud-ing netinven-tory

change

14.214. 113.217.829. 927.822. 723.328.423.922.528.621. 820. 322. 5

g

> farmators

Includ-ing netinven-tory

change 2

14.314.214.618. 733.326.525. 622.030.029. 122.525.620. 819. 323.0

Net incfarm inclinventor

Currentdollars

Dol

4,7664,7905,0306,504

11, 7279,3719, 1007,920

10, 68010, 3608, 1009,2107,4906,9508,360

ome peruding nety change 3

1967dollars 4

lars

4,3724,2024,2635,2888,8176,2065,4824, 5006,3206,0604, 7105,3004,2303,8604,570

1 Cash receipts from marketings, Government payments, and nonmoney in-come furnished by farms.2 Inventory of cropc and livestock valued at the average price for the year.

3 Based on Census oi Agriculture definition of a farm. The number ol farms isheld constant within a year.

' Jrccirein current dollar* divided by the index ol price? paid by farmers forfamily living items on a 1967 base. As of January 1977 movement is based on theoverall change in the consumer price index.

Source: Department of Agriculture.

90-545 O—77-


CORPORATE PROFITSAccording to preliminary estimates, profits before tax rose $2.1 billion (annual rate) in the first quarter, whilprofits with inventory valuation adjustment fell $1.1 billion.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

40 40

1977


[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Period

1966196719681969197019711972 „ _ _1973- _ _ _ _ _19741975_ .1976 _ _1975: I I I___

I¥1976: I

IIIIIIV

1977: I*

Profil

Total 2

78. 675.682, 177.966.476.989. 697.287. 8

103. 1133.3117.9119. 1129. 6131.8137.6134. 2133. 1

}s (before

Total

75.972.678.974.262. 672.484.790.476.797.0

125. 8111. 4112.7121. 9125.0130. 5125.6125. 6

tax) witadjustn

Domes

Finan-cial

8.59.0

10.411.312.614. 115.416.214. 112.914. 412. 112. 914. 013.814.415.415. 8

i invent<lent '

stie indu

N

Total 3

67.463.668. 562.950. 158.269.374. 162. 684. 1

111. 499.399. 8

107.9111.2116.0110. 3109. 8

Dry valu*

stries

onfinanc

Manu-fac-tur-mg

41.637.941.236.827. 132.440.644. 136. 946.464. 357. 055. 361. 266.467.262.3

ition

ial

Whole-saleand

retailtrade

8.08.9

10. 110. 19.4

11.713.314.712. 420.928. 124. 425.029. 026.628.827.9

Profitsbefore

tax

80.777.385. 683.471.582.096.2

115.8127. 6114. 5147.9126.9131. 3141. 1146.2150.2154.2156. 3

Taxlia-

bility

33.732.539.439. 734537.741.548. 752. 449.264.454.857. 261. 463.565. 167. 468. 6

Pro

Total

47. 144.946. 243.837.044. 354.667. 175.265. 383.672. 174. 179.782. 785. 186.887.6

fits after

Divi-dends

19.420. 121.922. 622. 923.024.627.830. 832. 135. 132. 632. 233. 134.435.437.737.6

tax

TT_un-dis-trib-utedprof-

its

27.624.724.221.214. 121. 330.039.344. 433.248.439.541.946.648. 349.749. 150.0

Inven-tory

valua-tion

adjust-ment

-2. 1-1.7-3,4-5.5-5. 1-5.0-6.6

-18.6-39.8-11.4-14.6-9.0

-12. 3-11.5-14. 4-12.6-20. 0-23. 1

1 See p. 4 for profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjust-ments.

* Includes rest of the world, not shown separately.

3 Includes industries not shown separately.Source: Department ol Commerce, Bureau ol Economic Analysis.

8


GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENTbusiness fixed investment rose $8.3 billion (annual rate) in the first quarter as investment in producers1 durable equip-ment rose $8.8 billion and investment in structures fell slightly. Residential outlays increased $4.7 billion. Inventoryinvestment, at $13.8 billion, was $12.1 billion above the fourth quarter level.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)120

_ NONRESIDENTIAL FIXED INVESTMENT

100

180

140

60

DURABLE EQUIPMENT

I I I

V~STRUCTURES

I I I

BILL

40

20

-20

40

IONS OF DO

-CHANGE IN

xN

_

i i i1973

.LARS*

BUSINESS INN

"^^\

I I I1974

^ENTORIES

A

KI I i

1975

r \/

i i i1976

_

_

I i . I1977

40


J_J L

50 -

1973

*SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATESSOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

1977

COUNCIL Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS


Period

1966-19671968196919701971197219731974_.__ _ _ _ _1975___19761975: III

IV1976:1 _

I I__ _IIIIV _ _ _ _

.977:1

Grossprivatedomes-

ticinvest-ment

124. 5120. 8131. 5146.2140.8160.0188.3220. 0215. 0183.7239.6196.7201. 4229. 6239.2247.0242.8267.9

Nor

Total

81.482. 189.398.9

100.5104. 1116.8136.0149. 2147. 1160. 0146. 1148. 7153.4157.9163.0165.6173.9

iresident

Struc

Total

29.229.531.635.737.739.342.549.054. 152. 055. 351.852. 153.254.956. 057.056.6

ial fixed

tures

Non-farm

28. 128.230.434.336. 137. 841. 146.951. 849.853.049.649. 951. 052.553. 754.854.4

investmc

Prodidur

equip

Total

52. 252. 657.763. 362.864. 774.387.095. 195. 1

104.794.396.6

100. 2103.0107. 0108. 6117.4

;nt

jeers'ablement

Non-farm

47.948.053.458.958. 159. 969. 180. 187. 286.995.986.788.091. 394. 198. 0

100. 2107.8

Resid

Total

28. 728.634. 537. 936.649. 662.066. 155. 151.267. 752.657. 061.365.368.975.580.2

ential fix

Non-farm

struc—tures

27. 427.233. 136.335.147. 960.364. 352.749.065. 150.254. 258.662. 966.372. 777.4

ed inves

Farmstruc-tures

0.7.7.6.7.6. 7. 7.6

1. 0.8

1. 11.01. 41.2.9

1.01. 21. 1

tment

Prn

ducersdur-o Hip

equip-ment

0.7. 7.8.9.9

1.01. 11.21.31.31.61.41. 41. 51.51. 61.61.7

Changeness inv

Total

14.310. 17.79.43.86.49. 4

17.910.7

-14. 611.9

-2.0-4.314.816.015. 11. 7

13.8

in busi-entories

Non-farm

14.59.47.69.23.75. 18.8

14.712.2

-17.611.9

-4.2-9.512.717.315.62. 2

13.0



EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENTBusiness plans to increase capital spending 11.7 percent in 1977, according to a survey conducted in January ai.February. Spending rose 6.8 percent in 1976.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE)

TOTAL NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT

40

20 201969 1970

J/ SEE FOOTNOTE 4 BELOW.


1977


Period

19701971197219731974197519761977 41976: I

IIIIIIV

1977: I 4

II 4 ___. .2nd

half 4_

Total *

79.7181.2188. 4499.74

112.40112. 78120. 49134. 58114.72118. 12122. 55125. 22129. 19132. 71

137. 90

Mi

Total

31. 9529.9931. 3538.0146.0147. 9552. 4859. 1649. 2150. 6454. 7854. 4456. 1757.90

61.06

E?

mufacturi

Dur-able

goods

15. 8014. 1515.6419.2522.6221.8423. 6826.8821.6322.5424.5925. 5025.3326. 77

27. 60

cpenditur€

ng

Non-durablegoods

16. 1515.8415.7218.7623. 3926. 1128.8132. 2927.5828.0930. 2028.9330.8431. 13

33.46

js for plan

Total

47.7651. 2257. 0961.7366. 3964.8268.0175. 4265. 5167.4867. 7670.7873.0274.81

76.84

t and equ

N

Mining

1. 892. 162. 422.743. 183. 794.004. 293.833.834.214. 134. 264. 16

4.37

ipment

onmanuf

Trans-porta-tion

6. 044.935. 726.036.667.577.456.506.558. 247. 257.537.006.58

6. 30

aeturing

Publicutili-ties

13. 1415. 3017.0018. 7120.5520. 1422. 2826. 2621.9121.8521. 6723.4624. 5226. 20

27. 02

Com-muni-cation

10. 1010. 7711.8912.8513.9612.7413. 3015.0612.5412.6213.6414.30

37.37.

39.

Com-mer-cialand

other 2

16.5918. 0520.0721. 4022. 0520.6020.9923.3120.6820. 9420. 9921.36

2587

15

Starts cand equ

proje

Manu-factur-

ing

29. 1828.0035. 2147.5752. 4948. 2451.05

11. 6412. 7713. 2212.88

f plantipmentcts 3

Publicutili-ties

17.2022. 2228.6038. 1345. 7434.5029.66

3. 438. 567. 54

10. 22

1 Excludes agricultural business; real estate operators; medical, legal, educa-tional, and cultural service; and nonprofit organizations. These figures do notagree precisely with the nonresidential fixed investment data in gross nationalproduct estimates, mainly because those data include investment by farmers,professionals, nonprofit institutions, and real estate firms, and certain outlayscharged to current account.' Includes trade, service, construction, finance, and insurance.

10

s Starts are estimated by adding changes in carryover to expenditures duringgiven period.

4 Expenditures estimates based on expected capital expenditures as reported bbusiness in late January and February 1977.

NOTE.—Annual total is the sum of unadjusted quarterly totals.Estimates (as noted in footnote 4) include adjustments when necessary for sys-

tematic biases in expectations data.Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.


EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGESSTATUS OF THE LABOR FORCESeasonally adjusted unemployment decreased by 327,000 in April while civilian employment increased by 548,000,reachins 90 million persons. This is the second consecutive month in which employment increased by more than halfa million persons.

MILLIONS OF PERSONS100

MILLIONS OF PERSONS*100

5 -

1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977

*16 YEARS OF AGE AND OVER.

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

Period

19721973197419751976-_ .

1976: Apr_May.June.July.Aug_Sept_Oct..Nov.Dec_

i077: jan__Feb..Mar.Apr__

Nonin-stitu-tional

popula-tion

145, 775148, 263150, 827153, 449156, 048

U

155, 516155, 711155, 925156, 142156, 367156, 595156, 788157, 006157, 176

157, 381157, 584157, 782157, 986

Civilianemploy-

ment

81, 70284, 40985, 93584, 78387, 485

nad justed

86, 58487, 27888, 46089, 60889, 36787, 94988, 69788, 54288, 494

86, 85687, 23188, 21589, 258

Unem-ploy-ment

4,8404, 3045,0767,8307,288

6,8906,3047,6557,5777,3237,0266,8337, 0957,022

7,' 8488, 1097, 5566,568

Totallaborforce

(includ-ing

ArmedForces)

88, 99191, 04093, 24094, 79396, 917

96, 52096, 69396, 84197, 32997, 49897, 38797, 44998, 02098, 106

97, 64998, 28298, 67798, 892

Civilianlaborforce

86, 54288, 71491,01192, 61394, 773

94, 37694, 55194, 70495, 18995, 35195, 24295, 30295, 87195, 960

95, 51696, 14596, 53996, 760

C

Total

81, 70284, 40985, 93584, 78387, 485

87, 32987, 64087, 53387, 78387, 83487, 79487, 73888, 22088, 441

88, 55888, 96289, 47590, 023

ivilian e

Agri-cul-tural

3,4723,4523,4923,3803,297

Seasc

3,3983,3323, 3133,3333,3723,2783,3103,2483,257

3,0903,0903, 1163, 260

mploymer

Nonagr;

Total

78, 23080, 95782, 44381, 40384, 188

mally adj

83, 93184, 30884, 22084, 45084, 46284, 51684, 42884, 97285, 184

85, 46885, 87286, 35986, 763

it

cultural

Part-timefor eco-nomic

reasons *

2,4082, 3112,7093,4903,272

usted

3, 1943,2873, 1503, 1363, 1783,3763,4483,5453,454

3,3203,4383,2763, 174

Unempl

Total

4,8404,3045,0767,8307,288

7,0476,9117, 1717,4067,5177,4487,5647,6517,519

6,9587, 1837,0646, 737

oyment

15weeksandover

1, 158812937

2,4832,339

2, 1032,0422, 1732,2472,3412,3112,3602, 5172,514

2,2832, 1821,9231, 816

Laborforce

partici-pationrate(per-

cent)2

61.061.461.861.862. 1

62. 162. 162. 162.362.462.262.262.462.4

62.062.462. 562. 6

1 Persons at work in nonagrieulturaJ industries.2 Total labor force as percent oi noninstitutional population 16 years of age andover.

Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

11


SELECTED UNEMPLOYMENT RATESThe unemployment rates for nearly all demographic groups declined in April as the seasonally adjusted unemploy-ment rate fell to its lowest level in 29 months, 7.0 percent.

PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED)

1973

* UNEMPLOYMENT AS PERCENT OF CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE IN GROUP SPECIFIED.SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

1976 1977


[Monthly data seasonally adjusted]

Period

1972. _._19731974 .197519761976: Apr _ __

May.,JuneJuly .Aug_SeptO c t _ _ _Nov _Dec.

1977: JanFebMarApr___

Total(all

civil-ian

work-ers)

5.64.95.68.57.77.57.37.67. 87.97.87.98.07.87.37.57.37.0

Uneir

By s

Men20

yearsandover

4.03.23.86.75.95.55.65.96. 15.96. 16.26.36.25.65.85.45. 0

i

iploymei

ex and a

Women20

yearsandover

5.44. 85.58.07.47.36.87.27.67.87.67.67.67.46. 97.27.27. 0

it rate (p

ge

Bothsexes16-19years

16. 214. 516.019. 919. 019.318.518.418.219.618.819.019. 219. 018.718.518.817.8

>ercent o

By <

White

5.04. 35.07.87.06.86.76.87. 17. 17.27.27.37. 16.76.76.66.3

f civilian

3olor

Blackand

other

10.08.99.9

13.913. 113. 012.313.412. 913.612. 813.413.513.412.513. 112. 712. 3

labor fo

I

Expe-riencedwageand

salaryworkers

5.34.55.38.27.37.17. 17.27.47.57.47.57.67.47.07. 16.96. 5

rce in gr

3y select

House-hold

heads

3.32.93.35.85. 14.84.95. 15. 35.25.45.45.35. 14.84.94.64.4

oup)

ed group

Full-time

work-ers

5. 14.35. 18. 17.37.06.97.27.37.57.57.67.67.56.76.96.76.5

s

Part-time

work-ers

8.67.98.6

10.310. 110.610. 19.2

10.610.09.6

10.310.59.8

10.210.711. 19. 9

Laborforcetimelost(per-

cent) 1

6.05.26. 19. 18.38. 18. 17.98. 18.48.48.68.68.48.07.97.87.4

1 Aggregate hours lost by the unemployed and persons on part-time for eco-nomic reasons as percent of potentially available labor force hours.


12


BELECTED MEASURES OF UNEMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT INSUR-ANCE PROGRAMSThe seasonally adjusted decline in unemployment of 327,000 in April was accompanied by decreases in the pro-port! Dn of job losers and job leavers.

PER

60

40

20

0

CENT D1STRIBUT

REASON FC

/^X

y^v..»..,..,

\

I I I 1 I 1 I | i LI1974

'SEASONALLY ADJUST

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT O

ION*

DR UNEMPLC

r^\

K

NEW ENTRANTS

| | ! 1 I 1 1 1 I 1 1

1975

EDLABOR

>YMENT

JOB LOSERS/

nlREENTRANTS

JOB LEAVERS

«**?**

i i i i i 1 i i i i i1976

^**'*

P&».

i i i i i I i i i i i1977

PEF

60

40

20

0

?CENT DISTRIBUT

DURATION

-^

5-14WEEKS

^*-w\/^r

15-26WEEKS

\,«««tltf

.»'»«"1§"""̂

. . /

i i i i i ! i i i i i1974

ION*

OF UNEMPL

LESS THAN5 WEEKS

U—V A

'v -^

v\s..<\*/

/ s\s<* s-•A

27 WEEKSAND OVER

i , i | , i i i . t i1975

OYAAENT

-A^~/ ^AJ/A/-,

%'V

'^

\ ^^V

1976

COUNCIL

//f

^v

•%.

V

. . . . . I i i ij_LJ

1977

OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]

Period

197219731974197519761976: Apr_ _

May_June_July-Aug__Sept__Oct___Nov__Dec__

1977: Jan___Feb__Mar*>_Apr*>__

Unem-ploy-ment(thou-sands)

4,8404, 3045,0767,8307,2887,0476,9117, 1717,4067,5177,4487, 5647, 6517,5196,9587, 1837, 0646, 737

Percerpl

Joblosers

43.238.743.455.449. 849.249.950. 350.949. 349. 750.049. 850. 045. 647.544. 443. 6

it distriboyment

Jobleavers

13.115. 714.910. 412.212.012.712. 613.012.912. 512. 511.211. 113.211.913.012. 5

ution ofDy reasoi

Reen-trants

29.830.728.423.826. 026. 225.225.525. 425. 325.525.627.026.228. 327.528.429. 5

unem-i 1

Newen-

trants

13.914.913. 310. 412. 112. 612.211.710.712. 412. 311. 912. 012. 612. 913. 114. 214. 4

Percerplo

Lessthan 5weeks

45.951.050. 637.038. 342. 741.038.440. 337. 537. 638. 435. 536. 438. 739. 542. 845. 8

it distribyment b

5-14weeks

30. 130. 131. 031.329.627. 229. 031. 128.831. 832. 030.832. 130. 529. 229.729.927. 4

ution ofy durati(

15-26weeks

12. 311.011. 116.513. 810. 212.512.714. 614.714. 714.215. 314. 914. 613.411. 110. 6

unern-m 1

27weeksandover

11. 67.87.3

15.218.319.817.517.916. 415. 915. 716.517. 118. 217.517.416. 316. 3

State p

Insuredunem-ploy-ment

Wee

1, 8481,6322,2623,9922,9682,7272, 8252, 9163,0453, 1833, 2603,2633, 1602, 9692,7812,7742, 5642, 489

ro grams

Initialclaims

skly aver

261246363478382364392402411416421421388361409419335363

Insuredunem-ploy-ment,

allregular

pro-grams 3

(unad-justed)

age, thorn

2, 1921,7932,5584,9433, 8223,9173,5643,4573, 6423, 4463, 2353,2173,4533, 8844, 4424, 4473,9693,506

Specialunem-ploy-ment

benefitclaims 3

(unad-justed)

sands

1, 1731, 1521, 125

9931, 1451,3791,327

986853862903823911901784

1 Detail may not add to 100 percent because of rounding.2 Includes State (50 States, District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico), ex-service-

men (UCX), Federal (UCFE), and railroad (RR) programs. Also includesFederal and State extended benefit programs. Does not include FSB (Federalsupplemental benefits) and SUA (special unemployment assistance).

3 FSB and SUA. These programs started January 1975 and regular reportingbegan March 1975.

Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics and Employmentand Training Administration). -i Q


NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENTTotal nonagricultural payroll employment increased by 272,000 in April. There were large increases in employmentin contract construction, nondurable goods manufacturing, and services.

MILLIONS OF PERSONS*

90'|

MILLIONS OF PERSONS* (ENLARGED SCALE)

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

ALL NONAGRICULTURALESTABLISHMENTS

"SERVICE-PRODUCING"INDUSTRIES

-GOODS-PRODUCING -INDUSTRIES

1973 1974* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

1975 1976 1977

18

16

14

12

22

20

18

WHOLESALE AND RETAIL TRADE

,,,.•"<*"

GOVERNMENT

X4—::::„„„..""""

..™rSERVICES

---"-r

.«,•.»**"

-

in i i i 1 1 i i i i

AAANUFAC

\

i i 1 1 1 1 i i M 1

TURING

* .-'1

i i i 1 1 I 1 1 i i i

^^ *«

1 1 I i i 1 1 1 1 1 1

-

.-"

i i i i i 1 i i M ib

* - "' • •

~

41 i i 1 1 I ! 1 ! 1 I

1973

"7=1CONTRACT (

1974

ONSTRUCTIO

I I i i I I i i i i i1975

N

1 1 i i i I i i i 1 11976

COUNCIL OF E

•X*

"M i l l I I I I I IV

1977

CONOMIC ADVISERS

[Thousands of wage and salary workers;1 seasonally adjusted]

Period

197219731974197519761976: Apr__

May.June_July__Aug_._Sept..Oct__Nov__Dec__

1977: Jan__Feb__Marp_Apr*>_

Totalnonagri-culturalemploy-

ment

73,71476, 89678, 41377, 05179, 44379, 31279, 31979, 36879, 51379, 61879, 91879, 81980, 10680, 34480, 56180, 82481, 37281, 644

C

Total 2

23, 54624, 72724, 69722, 60323, 33223, 40323, 38123, 35723, 34423, 31023, 46323, 32323, 48923, 50823, 58923, 70123, 98524, 151

;roods-pr(

Con-tractcon-

struc-tion

3,8314,0153,9573,5123,5943,6203,6053,5923,6083,5793, 5653,5823,6193,6053,5613, 6453,7463,822

educing i

Ma

Total

19, 09020, 06820, 04618, 34718, 95619, 00819, 00018, 98418, 94518, 97919, 10018, 94119, 06519, 09519,21119, 23319, 39919, 481

ndustrie

mufactui

Durablegoods

11, 00611,83911,89510, 67911, 02611,01611, 06211, 05911, 03411, 08311, 14611, 01811, 12811, 15811,23611, 23011, 36911, 392

3

ing

Non-durablegoods

8,0848,2298, 1517,6687,9307,9927,9387,9257,9117,8967,9547,9237,9377,9377,9758,0038, 0308,089

Total

50, 16752, 16953, 71554, 44856, 11155, 90955, 93856,01156, 16956, 30856, 45556, 49656, 61756, 83656, 97257, 12357, 38757, 493

S

Trans-porta-tionand

publicutilities

4,5174,6444,6964,4984,5094,5104, 5034,4824,5084, 5014,5284,5064,5194,5534,5494,5534,5674, 575

ervice-pi

Whole-saleand

retailtrade

15, 97516, 67417, 01717, 00017, 69417, 66217, 66317, 66417, 73717, 76417, 83917, 82417, 80817, 89817, 98118, 06718, 17218, 196

oducing

Finance,insur-ance,andreal

estate

3,9434,0914,2084,2234,3164,2894,2824,3014,3124,3124,3384,3594,3814,4034,4234,4314,4504,467

Industrie

Services

12, 39213, 02113, 61714, 00614, 64414, 53614, 56714, 61014, 66414, 75114, 79814, 81914, 87314, 93615, 01015, 06815, 15315, 200

S3

Gover

Federal

2,6842,6632,7242, 7482, 7332, 7332, 7302,7282, 7232,7322,7282,7302,7342,7202,7212,7212,7252,724

nment

Stateandlocal

10, 65511,07311,45911, 97312, 21512, 17912, 19312, 22612, 22512, 24812, 22412, 25812, 30212, 32612, 28812, 28312, 32012, 331

1 Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagriculturalestablishments who worked during or received pay lor any part ol the pay periodwhich includes the 12th oJ the month. Excludes proprietors, self-employed per-sons, domestic servants, and personnel oi the Armed Forces. Total derived fromthis table not comparable with estimates of nonagricultural employment ol thecivilian labor force, shown on p. 11, which include proprietors, self-employedpersons, and domestic servants; which count persons as employed when they

14

are not at work because oi industrial disputes; and which are based on a sampleof the working-age population, whereas the estimates in this table are based r-reports from employing establishments.1 Includes mining, not shown separately.



AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS AND HOURLY EARNINGSPRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES

[For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted]

Period

19681969197019711972 .1973197419751976

1976: AprMay __ _JuneJulyAugSeptOctNov.Dec

1977: JanFebMar J> _Apr»_

Aver

Totalprivatenonagri-cultural l

37. 837. 737. 137. 037. 137. 136. 636. 136.2

36. 136. 336. 136. 136. 136. 036. 136.236.2

35. 836.336.236.2

age weekly '.

Manufa

Total

40. 740.639.839.940. 640. 740.039. 440. 0

39. 440. 340. 240. 140. 039.739. 940. 140.0

39.540.340. 440. 2

lours

LCturing

Overtime

3.63.63.02.93. 53.83.22.63. 1

2.63. 33.23. 13.03.02. 93. 13.2

3.23. 33.33. 4

Averaghourly €

Totalprivatenonagri-cultural l

$2.853. 043.223. 443. 673.924. 224. 544.87

4. 794. 844.854.884.914.924. 955.005. 02

5. 075. 095. 125. 16

e grossearnings

Manufac-turing

$3.013. 193.363. 573. 814.084. 414.815. 19

5.085. 135. 165.215.255. 295.295.345. 38

5.435.435.505. 53

Adjusted h

Index, 1<

Currentdollars

106.2113.2120.7129. 2137.7146.5158.5172.5185.0

182.4183.6184.3185.6186.8187.5188. 4189.7190. 6

192.7193.2194. 1195.2

ourly earninnonagric

)67=100

1967dollars 3

101.9103. 1103.8106.6109. 9110.0107.3107.0108.5

108. 3108.3108.3108.5108.7108. 7108.9109.3109.4

109.7109.0108. 8108. 6

gs index — tcultural 2

Percent cha year (

Currentdollars

6. 26. 66. 67. 16. 56. 48. 28. 87.3

7.67. 77.27.37. 17. 16.86.76.9

7.37.07.07.0

>tal private

ange fromearlier 4

1967dollars

1.91.2.7

2.73. 1.2

-2.5-.31. 4

1.51. 41.21.81. 41.51.51. 61.9

2. 1L 0.6. 2

AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS—PRIVATE KONAGRICULTUFAL INDUSTRIES[For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]

Period

1968196919701971 „1972_197319741975__ _1976

1976: AprMayJuneJulyAug,. _ __ _ _SeptOctNov__Dec _

1977: Jan _ _ _FebMar PApr v

Total priagncu

Currentdollars

$107. 73114. 61119. 46127. 28136. 16145. 43154. 45163. 89176. 29

172. 92175. 69175. 09176. 17177. 25177. 12178. 70181. 00181. 72

181. 51184. 77185. 34186. 79

Average

vate non-tural l

1967dollars 3

$103. 39104. 38102. 72104. 93108. 67109. 26104. 57101. 67103. 40

102. 68103. 65102. 87103. 02103. 17102. 74103. 29104. 32104. 32

103. 37104. 21103. 89103. 89

gross weekly

Manufac-turing

<

$122. 51129. 51133. 73142. 44154. 69166. 06176. 40189. 51207. 60

200. 15206. 74207. 43208. 92210. 00210. 01211. 07214. 13215. 20

214. 49218. 83222. 20222. 31

earnings

Contractconstruction

Current dollars

$164. 49181. 54195. 45211.67222. 51235. 69249. 08265. 35284.93

283. 12284. 19286. 46286. 71284. 83276. 79289. 45292. 09291. 69

281. 08297. 86290. 77293. 46

Retailtrade 5

$74. 9578.6682. 4786.6190.9995. 57

101. 04108. 22113. 96

113. 43113. 02112. 29113. 60114. 24115. 56115. 84116. 75118. 50

117. 55119. 25119. 94119.94

Percent chzyear e

total prhagncu

Currentdollars

5.86. 44.26. 57. 06.86.26. 17.6

7.58.77.87.97.06.66.96. 56.7

5.67. 17.47.8

inge from aarlier,/ate non-Itural 6

1967dollars

1.51.01.62. 23.6.5

-4. 3-2.8

1.7

1.32.41.82.31.31.01.51.51. 8

. 41.0.9

1. 0

Also includes other private industry groups shown on p. 14.Adjusted for interindustry employment shifts and for overtime in manu-

facturing.3 Current dollar index (or earnings) divided by the consumer price index.4 Monthly changes based on indexes to two decimal places.

90-545 O—77 3

5 Includes eating and drinking places.6 Based on unadjusted data.NOTE.—Data for adjusted hourly earnings index revised beginning 1964.Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statist! cs.

15


PRODUCTIVITY AND RELATED DATA, PRIVATE BUSINESS ECONOMY

Period

196619671968...1969

197019711972 „_19731974

1975 -.1976

1975: IIIIIIIV

1976: IIIIIIIV _

1977: I

1966196719681969

1970.1971197219731974_

1975__.1976

1975: IIIIIIIV

1976: IIIIIIIV

1977: I

Outi

Totalprivatebusiness

98.0100.0105. 1108. 3

107.4110. 3117.6124. 5120.8

118. 1126. 1

114.2116.7120. 1121.2

124.2125. 8126. 8127.5

130.0

5.52.05. 13.0

— . 92.86.65.9

-3.0

-2.36.8

-11.28.9

12. 33.6

10.25.52.92.3

8.0

Hit1

Privatenon-farm

business

98. 1100.0105.4108.6

107.4110.3117. 9125.0121. 1

118.0126.2

114.4116.6119.9121.3

124.3126.0126.9127.5

130. 1

6. 01.95.43.0

-1. 12.76.96.0

-3. 1

-2.66.9

-11.37.9

12. 14.5

10.55.43.01.9

8.3

Hourspers


100.3100.0101.7104. 5

102.8102.3106. 0110. 1110.6

106. 1108.9

105.7104. 9105.9107.5

108.2108.9108. 9109.5

110. 4

Percei

2.3-.31.72.7

-1.6-.43.63.9.4

-4.12.7

-12.5-2.7

3.95.9

2.92.6. 1

2.1

3.2

of allons2

Privatenon-farm

business

1967 =

100.0100.0102. 1105.3

104. 0103.7107. 6112.2112.7

108.0111.4

107.8106.9107.7109.7

111.0111.2111. 3112.2

113. 3

at change

3.3.0

2. 13. 2

-1. 2-.33.74.3. 4

-4.13.1

-12,3-3.5

2.97.6

4.81.0.4

3.2

4 1

Output ]of all p


= 100; quai

97.8100.0103.3103.7

104.5107.8111.0113. 1109.2

111.3115.7

108.1111.2113.4112.8

114.7115.5116.3116.4

117.8

; quarterly

3.22.33.3.3

.73.22.91.93.4

1.940

1.412.08.1

-2. 1

7.02.92.9.3

47

3er hourersons

Privatenon-farm

business

rterly dat«

98. 1100.0103.2103. 1

103.2106.3109. 5111.4107.5

109.2113. 2

106.0109.0111.4110.6

112.0113.2114.0113.6

114.8

y data at

2.51.93.2-.2

.22.93.01.7

-3.5

1.63.7

1. 111.88.9

-2.8

5.44.42.6

-1.2

41

Compeper 1"

Totalpri-vate

business

a, seasons

94.7100. 0107.6115. 1

123.3131.5138.9150.3164 3

179.9193.7

176. 1178.7180.81842

188.8191.8195.3199.2

204.4

seasonal

7.05.67.67.0

7.26.65.78.29.3

9.57.7

12.96.14.87.6

10. 46.57.58.2

10.9

nsationlour 3

Privatenon-farm

business

illy adjusl

94.5100. 0107.3114.3

121.9129.9137.4148. 1162.0

177.4190.5

173. 1176. 1178.9181. 4

185.4188.9192. 1195.4

200. 2

y adjuste

6.15.87.36.5

6,76.65.87.89.4

9.57.4

11.67.16.45.8

9.07.77.17.0

10.3

UnitCO

Totalpri-vate

business

,ed

96.8100. 0104 1111.0

118. 1121.9125,2132. 9150. 4

161. 6167.4

162.9160.7159.5163.3

1646166.0167. 8171. 1

173.6

d annual

3.73.34 16.6

6.43.22.76.2

13.2

7.53.6

11.3-5.2-3.110.0

3.13.5458.0

5.9

laborsts

Privatenon-farm

business

96.4100. 0103.9110.9

118. 1122.2125. 5133.0150.8

162.4168.2

163.3161.5160.6164 1

165. 4166.8168.5171.9

1744

rates

3.43.83.96.6

6.53.52.76.0

13.4

7.73.6

10.4-42-2.3

8.9

3.43.2438.3

6.0

Implicidefla

Totalpri-vate

business

97.2100. 0103.9108.8

113.9118.9123. 2130.3143.8

157.51646

154.5155. 9158.4160.9

161.7163. 8165.4167.4

169.4

3.22.93.947

474.43.65.8

10.3

9.545

11.33.56. 66.6

2. 15.23.95.0

48

t pricetor*

Privatenon-farm

business

96.8100.0104 0108.7

1140119.2122. 9128.0142.0

156.4163.9

1540155. 0157.0159.3

161.0162.51648167.2

168.6

2.93.34045

49453. 141

11.0

10.148

13.52.65.36.2

433.65.85.9

3.5

1 Output refers to gross domestic product originating in the sector in 1972 dollars.2 Hours of all persons in private industry engaged in production, including

hours of proprietors and unpaid family workers. Estimates based primarily onestablishment data.

3 Wages and salaries of employees plus employers' contributions for socialinsurance and private benefit plans. Also includes an estimate of wages, salaries,and supplemental payments for the self-employed.

4 Current dollar gross domestic product divided by constant dollar gross domes-tic product.

NOTE.—Percent changes are from preceding period and are based on originaldata; they therefore may differ slightly from percent changes based on indexesshown here.


16


PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITYINDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATIONIndustrial production rose 0.8 percent in April following a 1.4 percent increase in March. Relatively large gainswere widespread, except for automobile production, which declined following a sharp rise in March.

INDEX, 1967=100* (RATIO SCALE)160

TOTAL INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION

MANUFACTURING PRODUCTION

INDEX, 1967=100* (RATIO SCALE)180

160

140

120

100

UTILITIES AND MINING PRODUCTION

*0*

di

MINING

ill1973 1974

PERCENT (RATIO SCALE)100

UTILITIES

1975

i n I ii1976 1977

MANUFACTURING CAPACITY UTILIZATION RATE

1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977

* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Seasonally adjusted]

Period

1967 proportion1971 ..19721973___197419751976 ___1976: Apr

MayJuneJulyAugSeptOct.NovDec

1977: Jan_._Feb.-Mar v

Apr *

Total iiprodi

Index,1967=

100

100. 00109.6119.7129.8129.3117.8129.8128,4129.6130. 1130.7131.3130. 8130.4131.8133. 1132. 1133.2135.0136. 1

idustrialiction

Per-cent

changefromyear

earlier

1.79.28.4-. 4

-8.910.214.014. 011.810.48.57. 16.76.77.05. 14.65.46.0

IndusM,

Total

87.95108.2118.9129.8129.4116. 3129.4128.5129.6130.2131.0131.6130.7129.9131. 9132.8131.5132.9134.8135. 9

try produanufacturi

Dur-able

51.98102.4113.7127. 1125.7109.3121.4120. 1121.7122. 3124. 2125. 1122.4121.5123. 8125.2123. 0123.9126.4127. 5

ction indng

Non-dur-able

35.97116. 6126. 5133.8134. 6126.4141.0140.7140.9141.3141. 1140.9142.6142. 2143.5143.7143. 7145. 7146.8147.9

exes, 196

Mining

6. 36109. 8113. 1114. 7115.3112.8114 1113.5113.0114.4112.5114.4115.7116.7116. 2116. 2113.2114.3118. 8118.5

7=100

Utili-ties

5. 69130.5139.4145.4143.7146.0151.7150.8153.0151.2150.8151. 3150. 1151. 2154.0155.5161. 5159. 3156.2157.0

Manuf

Federalsen

Totalmanu-factur-

ing

78.083. 187.584.273.680. 179.880.380.580.981. 180. 479.780.881.280.280.881.882.2

acturing crate, p<

Reservees

Mate-rials

83 188.092.487.773.680.380. 180.880.881. 281.681.080.380.380.179. 180. 181. 282.0

japaeity i^rcent l

Com-merceseries 2

808386837781

82

80

81

itilization

Whar-ton

series 8

86.491.897. 193.080.487.6

87.8

88.2

87.9

88. 4

(Output as percent of capacity.'Annual data are averages of four monthly indexes.3 Quarterly data entered in last month of quarter. Annual data are

quarterly data.

Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Department ofCommerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis), and Wharton School of Finance.

17


INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION—MAJOR MARKET GROUPS ANDSELECTED MANUFACTURES

[1967=100, seasonally adjusted]

Period

1967 proportion1969 .-1970 -1971.19721973___19741975—1976 _ -1976: Apr .

MayJuneJulyAug^ _-.Sept - -- -Oct ..Nov _ „ _ _Dec._

1977: Jan...FebMar p

Apr * » _ _

Total

47.82109.6105.3106. 3115.7124.4125. 1118. 2127. 3126.3127.3127. 6127.6128.3127.4127,4129.8132, 1130.8131.7133.4134. 1

Coi

Total

27. 68109. 8109.0114. 7124.4131.5128.9124.0136.8136. 1137.4137.8136. 8137. 5136.2136. 9139. 1142. 0140.2141. 1143.3143. 8

Final p

isumer go

Durablegoods

7. 89115. 0106. 1118.8133.8146. 2135. 3121. 4141. 5141. 1143.2144.2141. 8143.7138.4139.4143.7151.2145. 1146. 1153.8153. 4

Proc

roducts

ods

Non-durablegoods

19. 79107.7110. 1113. 1120. 6125.6126. 3125. 1134.9134.0135. 1135. 1134.8134.9135. 3135.8137. 1138. 4138.3139.0139. 1140.0

iucts

Equij

Total

20. 14109.3100. 194.7

103.8114.5120.0110.2114. 3112.9113. 5113. 8114. 9115.7115.2114. 4116.9118. 6117.8118.6119.5120. 8

>ment

Busi-ness

12.63112. 5107.0104. 1118. 0134.2142.4128. 2136. 1134. 1134.6135. 0136. 9137.7137.5135. 9140.2143. 2142. 0143.0144.6145. 7

Intermprod

Total

12.89112. 9112.9116.7126. 5137. 2135. 3123. 1136.8134.7135.0135.9137. 6137.8138.7138.3138.8139.8141.8141. 7141.4142. 1

lediateucts

Con-structionsu pplies

6.4$112. 3111. 0116.8128. 4139.8134. 5116. 3132.0128.0130.9131.8133. 1134. 1134.3134.0135.7135. 5136. 1135.7136.0136.9

Ma-terials

89. 29112.5109.2111. 3122.3133.9132.4115.5130.5129. 2130.6131. 1132.2133.0132.5131.6131.9131.9130.7132.6134.7136.3

Sup-ple-

ment-ary

fouP:

lergytotal

12. 2$111. 1117.0119. 5125. 2128. 3125.5125. 5129.0128,2129.3129. 7128.4129.0128.6128.6130.7132. 2133.0131.7132.6132. 1

[1967=100, seasonally adjusted]

Period

1967 proportion19691970197119721973197419751976

1976: AprMayJuneJuly ..Aug..Sept-. .OctNovDec

1977: JanFebMar »_ . 'Apr * „ _

Primary

Total

6.57113.8106.6100.2112. 1126. 7123. 196. 4

108. 0

105. 4113. 2111.5116.9118. 6114. 1109.9107.3102.7

100.0100.6106.2109.8 !

r metals

Ironandsteel

4.81112.6104.796. 1

107. 1122.3119. 895.8

104.4

103.5110.7110.0115. 3116.2110.3105. 1103. 195.6

89.891.898.0

102. 1

Di

Fabri-catedmetalprod-ucts

5.9S107.9102.4103.5112. 1124.7124. 2109. 9123.3

121.5121.4124. 0124. 6125.8126.6123.5126.7128.2

125.7125. 9127. 6129. 6

irable m

Non-elec-tricalma-chin-ery

9. u109.3104.4100. 2116.0133.7140. 1125. 1134.7

133.5134.0133. 5135. 0136.4136. 8134. 1137.5141. 2

139.5139.8140.3141. 7

anufactu

Elec-tricalma-

chin-ery

8.05111.9108. 1107.7122.2143. 1143.8116.5131.7

130.0131.8132. 0131.0135. 3133. 7135.0135. 8135.6

134.0137.6138.5140. 3

res

Transpequip

Total

9.27108.489.597.9

108. 2118. 3108.797.4

110. 6

110.6112. 9112.6113.3115. 0104. 4104.7112. 7118.2

113. 5113. 4120.2118. 1

ortationment

Motorve-

hiclesand

parts

4.50116.592. 3

118.6135.8148.8128.2111. 1140.7

141.3144. 3146. 5148. 5150.6130.2129.3145.8156.4

145.5145.4160.8156. 9 1

Lum-berand

prod-ucts

1. 64107. 9105.6113. 8120.8126.0116. 2107.6125. 1

122.8123.0120. 3124. 6128. 1128.7130.7129.0127.5

132.7132. 2132.0

Non

Ap-parelprod-ucts

S.31106. 7101.4104.7109. 4117.3114.3107.6126. 1

126. 1130.3126.8125.6123.7122.5126.4125. 9128.0

123. 6125.3

durable

Print-ingandpub-

lishing

4. 72107.4107. 0107. 1112.7118.2118.2113.3120. 7

122. 0120.5119.7122. 0120. 6120.6119.2119. 3123. 1

124. 3123.0123.0123.2

manufac

Chem-icalsand

prod-ucts

7.74118.4120.4125. 9143.6154.5159.4147.3169.4

168.7166.6170.0167.6170.4170.5170.6174.2173.5

172.0175.0176. .8

iures

Foods

8. 75106. 1108. 9112.8116.8120.9124.0123.4132. 0

129. 2131.2130.5131.8133.4135.7134.7134.7134.3

135.5137.6138. 8

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

18


NEW CONSTRUCTION

Period

1970___197119721973197419751976

1976: MarAprMayJune___JulyAugSeptOct___. __NovDec

1977: JanFeb*Mar p

Total newconstruc-

tionexpendi-

tures

94.9110. 0124. 1137. 9138.5132. 0144.8

145. 1144. 5143. 4145.4140. 9141.9146.6148. 5152.8152.2137. 1149. 0157.3

Total

66.880. 193.9

105.4100.293. 0

108.4

107. 1106.6107. 2106.5104. 1104.5109.0114. 5118.8118.9107.2116.5124.3

Resid

Total *

Bi]

31.943. 354.359. 750. 446.559.9

Seasonally

58. 158.958. 858.757.055. 259. 165. 469. 270.063.469. 174. 3

Private

lential

Newhousing

unites

lions of doll

24. 335. 144.950. 140. 634.446.7

/ adjusted ar

43.844. 243.945.446.946. 548.851. 152.754.350.056.661.4

Commer-cial and

industrial

ars

16. 317.018. 121. 723.820.819. 5

mual rates

21.019.819. 318.718.719.919.719.019. 019.318.318.820.5

Other

18. 619.821.524. 026. 025. 729.0

28. 027. 929. 129. 128. 529. 430. 230. 130.629.725. 528.529. 5

Federal,State,

andlocal

28. 129.930.232. 538.339.036.4

38.037.936.238.936.837.337. 634.034. 133.329.932.533.0

Construction

Total valueindex

(1967=100)

123. 1145. 4165.3179. 5169.7167.9194. 1

Seasonallyadjusted

192208205187215186203237186183203207207

contracts 2

Commer-cial andindustrial

floor space(millions ofsquare feet)

743727854

1,010840555602

Seasonallyadjustedannual

rates

628634632646627609582618631658643615809

1 Includes nonhousekeeping residential construction and additions and alter-ations, not shown separately.

2 F. W. Dodge series. Relates to 50 States beginning 1969 for value index andbeginning 1971 for floor space.

Note.—New construction expenditures data prior to 1973 not comparable withlater data.

Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census) and McGraw-HillInformation Systems Company, F. W. Dodge Division.

NEW PRIVATE HOUSING AND VACANCY RATES[Thousands of units or homes, except as noted]

Period

19691970197119721973197419751976

1976: AprMayJuneJulyAug.— . _ _SeptOetNovDec

1977: JanFeb 9

i Mar *__Apr *_

Units

Total

1, 466. 81, 433. 62, 052. 22, 356. 62, 045. 31, 337. 71, 160. 41, 537. 5

1,3851, 4351,4941,4131, 5301,7681, 7151,7061, 8891, 3841,8022,1141,875

Is

started, by

1 unit

810.6812. 9

1, 151. 01, 309. 21, 132. 0

888. 1892.2

1, 162. 4

1, 0711,0911, 1221, 1291, 1721,2541, 2691,2361,3241,0061,4241,5201,444

Jew private

type of stri

2-4units

85. 084.8

120. 3141.3118. 368. 164.085.9

Seasonally

7788757283

1069898

120103120116107

housing unil

icture

5 or moreunits

571.2535.9780. 9906.2795. 0381.6204.3289.2

adjusted ar

237256297212275408348372445275258478324

bs

Unitsauthor-

ized

1, 323. 71, 351. 51, 924. 62, 218. 91, 819. 51, 074. 4

939.21, 280. 5

mual rates

1,0821, 1581, 1501,2151,2961,5041,4921,5901, 5141,3071, 5291,7121,534

Unitscompleted

1, 399. 01, 418. 41, 706. 11, 971. 52, 013. 81, 691. 71, 296. 81, 362. 1

1,2941,3991,3731, 3171, 3801,4021, 3391,3991,4441, 4161,6421,659

New priv

Homessold

448485656718620501544639

604551595606656714728694808815864807

ate homes

Homes forsale atend ofperiod l

222220287409450403380431

392402406410410415420429431432435438

Vacancyrate forrental

housingunits

(percent) 2

5.55.35.55.65.86.26.05.6

5.8

5.7

5.3

5. 1

1 Seasonally adjusted.2 Quarterly data entered in last month of quarter.Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.

19


BUSINESS SALES AND INVENTORIES—TOTAL AND TRADEBusiness sales rose 3.4 percent in March and business inventories increased $3.0 billion. According to the advancesurvey, retail sales were virtually unchanged in April, following a rise of 2.1 percent in March.


100

INVENTORY-SALES RATIO

100 -

1973

SEASONALLY ADJUSTEDSOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

1977


Period

197119721973197419751976 „1976: Mar

AprMayJune_JulyAugSept _.Oct.NovDec

1977: Jan___ ,FebMar P _ _Apr *»_ _ _ _

Total bi

Q _ 1 _ _ 2oales

112, 323125, 269145, 297166, 771172, 511192, 720189, 940191, 404190, 445193, 360193, 302194, 302193, 868192, 591196, 477204, 365201, 988207, 500214, 630

usiness l

Inven-tories 3

184, 756198,045227, 926278, 386275, 484299, 123281, 256283, 062285, 693289, 138290, 866293, 308296, 537298, 179298, 941299, 123301, 970303, 985306, 991

Who]

On1s%_, Jbales a

Millions

22, 32724, 86230, 40037, 34436, 58340, 21239, 09439, 53039, 38640, 78040, 61640, 58141, 38140, 67640, 79641, 76741, 93143, 23343, 873

esale

Inven-tories 3

oi doll

29, 69532, 81738, 30246, 56445, 11550, 13146, 39846, 82647, 79948, 64548, 80549, 00649, 72349, 84750, 16750, 13150, 87251, 65852, 215

Tntfi 1

ars, seat

34, 07137, 36541, 94344, 81548, 70254, 32453, 34453, 69652, 86853, 98353, 75454, 64354, 10054, 63455, 57357, 89856, 66058, 17559, 40059, 397

Sales 2

Dur-able

goodsstores

onally a

10, 98512, 47214, 19013, 94315, 06017, 84717, 40318, 04617, 41917, 80317, 69918, 20817, 48117, 55918, 15719, 73019, 02419, 76420, 61820, 147

Re

Non-durablegoodsstores

d justed

23, 08624, 89327, 75430, 87233, 64236, 47635, 94135, 65035, 44936, 18036, 05536, 43536, 61937, 07537, 41638, 16837, 63638,41138, 78239, 250

tail

In

TPntfil

52, 57157, 15665, 22973, 85174, 67682, 40577, 29878, 10278, 40679, 37579, 91781, 11881, 84881, 65881, 66082, 40583, 61683, 87885, 397

ventorie^

Dur-able

goodsstores

23, 86426, 05629, 59334, 30134, 47438, 22435, 23135, 46235, 54735, 86336, 52337, 51537, 82237, 51837, 93338, 22438, 93138, 91239, 613

5 '*

Non-durablegoodsstores

28, 70731, 10035, 63639, 55040, 20244, 18142, 06742, 64042, 85943, 51243, 39443, 60344, 02644, 14043, 72744, 18144, 68544, 96645, 784

Inventcrat

Totalbusi-ness 1

1.611. 521.461.511.601.501.481.481.501.501.501.511.531.551. 521.461.491.461.43

)ry-salesio 4

Retail

1.471.461.461.531.511.461.451.451.481.471.491.481.511.491.471.421.481.441.44

1 The term "business" also includes manufacturing (see page 21).* Monthly average for year and total for month.•Book value, end oi period, seasonally adjusted.* For annual period?, ratio of weighted average inventories to average monthly

sales; for monthly data, ratio of inventories at end of month to sales for month.

20

NOTE.-—Total (and manufacturing) sales revised beginning December 1975.Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Burea

of the Census)


MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND NEW ORDERSManufacturers' shipments, new orders, and inventories rose in March. Preliminary estimates indicate durable goodsmanufacturers' shipments and orders fell in April.


120 -

100


40

1973 1974 1975 1976 1977


r)Af\

*5AA

160

120

100

QA

60

Af\

INVENTO

-

-

TC

^~~-\

^t*— •••""".j,.**11"

t i i i i I i i | i i•N*

RIES

TAL ****

---T'DURAB

4**^*

x%

M l l l l l M H

.E GOODS

,̂.,,.-

NONDURABL

\ \ i u l

^ r^*— |

GOODS

1 I 1 I 1 1 I 1 ! 1 1

-

MM*

-

-

_

1 1 1 1 1 1 I ! 1 1 1

RATIO*2.20

2.00INVENTORY-SHIPMENTS RATIO

1.20

1973 1974 1975

*SEASONAUY ADJUSTEDSOURCE; DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

1976 1977


Period

1971 _1972 _19731974 _ _197519761976: Mar__

Apr___May__June--July __Aug__Sept__Oct___Nov__Dec—

1977: Jan___Feb___Mar__Apr p_

Manufac

Total

55, 92563, 04272, 95484, 61287, 22698, 18497, 50298, 17898, 19198, 59798, 93299, 07898, 38797, 281100, 108104, 700103, 397106, 092111,357

turers' sh

Durablegoods

29, 97334, 04239, 70444, 04343, 91250, 39250, 38250, 14650, 55850, 60651, 09051, 64850, 06049, 26751, 42755, 52053, 24754, 72959, 02957, 167

ipments *

Non-durablegoods

25, 95328, 99933, 25040, 56943, 31347, 79247, 12048, 03347, 63447, 99047, 84247, 43048, 32848, 01448, 68149, 18050, 15051, 36352, 328

Manufad

Total

Millie

102, 490108, 072124, 395157, 971155, 693166; 587157, 560158, 134159, 488161, 118162, 144163, 184164, 966166, 674167, 114166, 587167, 482168, 449169, 379

)urers' in-v

Durablegoods

ms of doll

66, 14970, 09881, 218101, 780100, 310105, 729100, 740101, 033101, 502102, 429102, 856103, 282104, 117105, 589106, 128105, 729106, 562107, 222107, 685

entories 2

Non-durablegoods

ars, seasor

36, 34137, 97443, 17756, 19155, 38260, 85856, 82057, 10157, 98658, 68959, 28859, 90260, 85061, 08560, 98660, 85860, 92061, 22761, 694

Manu

Total

lally ad jus

55, 93764, 24676, 21786, 98885, 65998, 51398, 26798, 41599, 02599, 13598, 81197, 55498, 47699, 244100, 973106, 825105, 116106, 534111, 950

"acturers

Durab

Total

sted

29, 95135, 14242, 88846, 57042, 16450, 69751, 11150, 24551, 35451, 24951, 18050, 38050, 06850, 99352, 42457, 26554, 94355, 15959, 38659, 161

' new ore

e goods

Capitalgoodsindus-tries,non-

defense

7,5758,94711, 16912, 65610, 89912, 83712, 17312, 47612, 66612, 60713, 77812, 69013, 46814, 30212, 87814, 11214, 77814, 33514, 79415, 072

lers i

Non-durablegoods

25, 98629, 10433, 32940, 41843, 49547, 81647, 15548, 17047, 67047, 88647, 63147, 17448, 40948, 25248, 54949, 56050, 17351, 37552, 564

Manu-fac-

turers'unfilledorders 3

107, 656122, 362161, 766190, 271171, 438175, 453170, 450170, 687171, 520172, 059171, 938170, 414170, 503172, 468173, 333175, 453177, 179177, 623178, 214

Manu-fac-

turers'inven-tory —ship-mentsratio 4

1. 831. 671. 581. 661. 801. 641.621. 611.621.631. 641. 651.681. 711. 671. 591.621. 591.52

1 Monthly average for year and total for month. Shipments are the same as sales.2 Book value, end of period.3 End of period.4 For annual periods, ratio cf weighted average inventories to average monthly

shipments; for monthly data, ratio of inventories at end of month to shipmentsformohth.

NOTE.—Total and nondurable shipments and new orders revised beginningDecember 1975.

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.

21Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

PRICESWHOLESALE PRICESIn April, the wholesale price index rose 1.3 percent (1.1 percent seasonally adjusted). Prices of farm products andprocessed foods and feeds increased 2.6 percent (2.9 percent seasonally adjusted). Industrial commodities priceswere up 0.8 percent (0.6 percent seasonally adjusted).

INDEX, 1967= 100 (RATIO SCALE)220

200

180

160

140

120

100

INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE)220

i

FARM PRODUQS AND I \PROCESSED FOODS AND FEEDS I \ ;

\/ V1

Ai

ALL COMMODITIES /"'

f •-•'

1969 1970 1971 1972 1973

120

100

1977


[1967=100]

Period

19691970197119721973197419751976

1976: AprMay_ __June. _ .JulyAug_ _ _SeptOctNovDec__

1977: JanFebMar___ _Apr

Allcom-

modi-ties

106.5110.4114.0119. 1134. 7160. 1174. 9182. 9

181. 3" 181. 9183.2184.4183.8184. 8185.3185.6187. 1188. 0190.0191. 9194. 3

Farmproducts

andprocessed

foodsand feeds

108. 0111. 7113. 9122. 4159. 1177.4184.2183. 1

Unadjusted183. 7184.8187.4188. 1181.7182.9179. 5178.4183.9184.8188. 4190.9195. 9

Indus-trial

commod-ities

106. 0110.0114. 1117.9125.9153. 8171.5182. 3

180. 1180. 5181. 5182. 7183. 8184.8186.3187. 0187.4188.4189. 9191.6193. 2

Farmpro-

ducts

109. 1111.0112. 9125. 0176.3187.7186.7191. 1

195.0194.3195. 3194. 2187. 7189. 2188. 2187. 1191.9194. 0198. 3203.3210. 2

T5Pro-cessedfoodsandfeeds

107. 3112. 1114.5120. 8148. 1170. 9182.6178.0

179. 5181. 1181. 6180. 5175. 9176. 0174.9175.7178.8178.6181.9185. 4190. 1

Crudemate-rials l

110. 6118.9122. 7131. 1155. 2219. 1225. 1250.0

Seas242.9244. 1246. 8252. 7254. 4253. 1262. 4271.8265.8262. 6273.0279. 3280. 1

Inter-mediatemate-rials 2

106. 1109.9114.3118. 9128. 1159. 5178,6189.4

onally ad187.2187.4188. 2189. 1190.3192.0193.3194.3195. 3196.3197. 4199. 1200. 3

Special g

Produc-er fin-ishedgoods

106.9112.0116.6119. 5123.5141. 0162.5173.2

usted171.5171.8172. 5173. 1173.6174. 5176. 3177.2178.5179.2180. 1180. 8181. 8

groupings

Consunexc

Total

104. 6107. 7111. 2113. 5118.6138. 6153. 1161.7

159.4159.5160. 7161. 5162. 5163.7164. 6165. 3165.8167.4167.9169. 2170. 4

ler finishe;luding fo<

Durable

104.0106.9110.8113. 2115.8126.3138. 2144.3

143. 0143.3143.9144.2144. 9145. 7146. 5146.7146. 9148. 0148.8149. 4150. 5

d goods)ds

Non-durable

105. 0108.3111.7113.6120.5146.8163.0173.2

170. 3170. 3171.8173. 1174.2175.6176.7177.9178.4180.3180.7182.5183.7

1 Excludes crude foodstuffs and feedstuffs, plant and animal fibers, oilseeds, and1 eaf tobacco.

2 Includes supplies and components; excludes intermediate materials for foodmanufacturing and manufactured animal feeds.

NOTE.—Data revised for January—October 1976.


22


JONSUMER PRICESin April, the consumer price index rose 0.8 percent (also 0.8 percent seasonally adjusted). Food prices increased1.2 percent (1.5 percent seasonally adjusted). Nonfood commodity prices rose 0.6 percent (0.4 percent seasonallyadjusted) and services prices were up 0.7 percent (0.8 percent seasonally adjusted).



100 100

1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977


[1967=100]

Period

19691970197119721973197419751976

1976: Apr.._.May— .JuneJuly_._Aug —Sept.__OctNovDec

'77: JanFeb____MarApr

Allitems

109.8116.3121.3125.3133. 1147.7161.2170.5

168.2169.2170. 1171. 1171.9172.6173.3173.8174.3

175.3177. 1178.2179.6

Food

108.9114.9118.4123.5141.4161.7175.4180.8

Unac

179.2180.0180.9182. 1182.4181.6181.6181. 1181.7

183.4187.7188.6190. 9

Com-modi-tieslessfood

108. 1112.5116.8119.4123.5136.6149. 1156.6

ljusted

154.2155.5156. 5157. 1158.0158.9159.6160.3160.6

160.6161.6162.6163.6

Serv-ices

112. 5121.6128.4133. 3139. 1152. 1166. 6180.4

177.7178.4179. 5180.7181.8183.2184. 1185. 1185.8

187.5188.7190.0191.3

Allcom-modi-ties

108. 4113.5117. 4120.9129.9145.5158.4165.2

163.3164.4165.0165.5166.2166.6167. 1167.4168.0

169.4171. 4172. 2173.6

All

108.9114.9118.4123. 5141.4161.7175.4180.8

179.4180.8181.2181.4181.8181.9182.2181.7181.9

183.5187. 1188.2191.0

Food

Foodat

home

108.2113.7116.4121.6141.4162. 4175.8179.5

178.3179.6179.9179.9180.2180. 1180.3179.6179.7

181.3185.4186.4189.3

Foodawayfromhome

111.6119.9126. 1131. 1141.4159.4174.3186. 1

Seasonal

183.9185.0186. 1187.2188.0188.7189.0189. 5190. 4

192.0194.0195. 4197. 5

Comii

All

108. 1112.5116.8119.4123.5136. 6149. 1156.6

y adjust

154.6155.6156.2156.9157.8158.3159. 0159.6160. 5

161. 6162.7163.4164. 0

Qodities le

Dur-able

107.0111.8116. 5118.9121. 9130.6145.5154.3

ed

152.7153.7154.2155.0155.6156. 1156.6157.3158. 4

159.9161.4162.4163.2

-ss food

Non-dur-able

108.8113. 1117.0119.8124.8140.9151.7158.3

156. 0156.9157.6158. 4159. 3159. 9160.6161.3162. 0

162.8163.7164.2164. 7

Serv-ices

112.5121.6128.4133.3139. 1152. 1166.6180.4

177.9178.9179.9181. 1182.2183.2184.0184.8185.5

187.2188.4189.9191. 4

Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 23


CHANGES IN WHOLESALE PRICES

Period

1968196919701971197219731974197519761976: Apr__

May_June.July.Aug..Sept.Oct__Nov_Dec..

1977: Jan__Feb__Mar_Apr__

Percerperio

Allcom-modi-ties

2.84.82. 24. 16.3

15.420.9

4. 24.7. 9. 2. 5.4

2. 7. 5. 6. 6. 5.9

1. 11. 1

it changed; seasor

Farmprod-ucts

4. 48.4

-4. 78. 1

18. 736. 1

-1.95. 5

-1. 14. 1

_^ 4. 5

-. 6-3.3

.8-.5-. 62.61. 12. 22. 53.4

» from prelally adju

Proc-essedfoodsand

feeds

3. 06. 8.8

4. 711.620.320. 9

-3.8-1. 1

1.3. 9. 3

— . 6-2. 5

. 1-. 6

. 51.8

— . 11. 81.92.5

cedingsted 1

Indus-trialcom-modi-ties

2. 73. 93.63.43.4

10. 725. 66. 06.4.4. 2. 6

A

. 6

. 8

. 9

. 6

. 3

. 5

. 6

.8

.6

Percent cseason.

Allcom-modi-ties

3. 85. 56.64. 52. 93. 54. 07.27. 17. 18.4

10. 213. 1

lange f really adju

Farmprod-ucts

3. 69.8

18. 2-1. 6

-12. 9-11.9-11.8-1.3

5. 812. 926.226. 037.8

>m 3 montsted annu-

Proc-essedfoodsand

feeds

1. 810.810.32. 2

-11.0-11. 8-11.8

— . 56. 58. 7

14. 915. 628. 4

is earlier;aJ rates


4. 13.94. 85. 47. 38. 09.39. 57. 65. 95. 97.98. 5

Percent <season

Allcom-modi-ties

2.63.03.94.24. 25. 14. 25. 05.35. 57.88.6

10. 1

jhange froally ad jus

Farmprod-ucts

-4. 2-1. 1

1. 1.9

-2.22.0

-6. 9-7.3-3.5-. 211. 615. 524. 7

m 6 montted annua

Proc-essedfoodsand

feeds

-7.3-2.9

. 82. 0

__. 7-1. 3-5. 1-5. 9-3. 1-2. 1

6. 911. 018. I

tis earlier;j rates


5.95.05. 04.85. 66.47. 48.47.87. 67. 77.77. 2

1 Annual changes are from December to December (unadjusted).NOTE.—-Data revised beginning January 1976.


CHANGES IN CONSUMER PRICES

Period

19681969197019711972197319741975.1976

1976: Apr___May__June » _July__.Aug___Sept___O c t _ _ _Nov___Dec___

1977: Jan. _ _Feb._..-Mar._ .Apr

Percerperio

Allitems

4.76. 15.53.43.48.8

12. 27. 04.8

.4

.7

. 4

. 5

.5

.3

.3

.3

. 4

.81.0. 6.8

it changed; seasor

Food

4.37.22. 24. 34. 7

20. 112.26.5.6

. 5

.8

. 2

. 1

.2

. 1

. 2g

. 1

.92. 0. 6

1. 5

i from prelally adju

Com-mod-itieslessfood

3.74.54.82.32.55.0

13.26.25. 1

.3

.6

. 4

.4

.6

. 3

. 4

. 4

.6

.7

.7

.4

.4

cedingsted *

Serv-ices

6. 17.48.24. 13.66.2

11.38. 17.3

.5

.6

.6

.7

.6

.5

. 4

.4

. 4

.9

.6

. 8

.8

Percent cseasons

Allitems

3. 15.46. 16.35.55. 34.84.04. 2

6. 19. 1

10.09.9

lange f reilly adju

Food

-3.72.96.24. 52.21.61.8

-.2.0

2.912. 414.617.4

>m 3 montsted annu


3.75.05.66. 15.85. 55.54.65.7

6. 78. 07.46. 1

tis earlier ;al rates

Serv-ices

7.87.26.57.47.67.56.65.85. 1

7. 18.09.89.3

Percent cseasons

Allitems

4.95. 15.04.75. 55. 75.54.84.8

5. 56.57. 18.0

lange f reilly adju

Food

-0. 1.6. 2.3

2,63.83. 11.0.8

2. 35.97.09. 9

>m 6 montsted annu


4.04.84. 84.95.45.55.85.25. 6

6. 16.36.56. 4

as earlier;al rates

Serv-ices

9.58.78.57.67.47.07.06.76.3

6.96.97.48.2

1 Annual changes are from December to December (unadjusted). Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

24


'RICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERSPrices received by farmers rose 11/2 percent in the month ended April 15. Contributing most to the increase werehigher prices for soybeans, cattle, oranges, and potatoes. Partially offsetting were lower prices for vegetables, hogs,eggs, cotton, and corn. Prices paid by farmers also rose 11A percent.

INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE)

PRICES RECEIVED(ALL FARM PRODUCTS)

PRICES PAID(ALL ITEMS, INTEREST,

TAXES, AND WAGE RATES)

80

70 P

601969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974

J/ RATIO OF INDEX OF PRICES RECEIVED TO INDEX OF PRICES PAID, INTEREST, TAXES, AND WAGE RATES, ON 1910-14=100 BASE.

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE

1975 1976 ' 1977


Period

196919701971_.__19721973197419751976

1976: Apr 15May 15June 15July 15Aug 1 5 _ _ _ _ _ _ _Sept 15Oct 15. —Nov 15Dec 15

1977: Jan 15Feb 15Mar 15_-_ ___ _Apr 15

Prices

All farmproducts

107110113125179192186186

189191196195187187178173179

183187190193

received by

Crops

97100108114175224201198

193198211215201204195187192

198203211217

farmers

Livestockand

products

Index, 1<

117118118136183165172177

186185184179175172165162168

170174171172

PricesAll items,interest,

taxes, andwage rates

567=100

108112120125144166180192

191191193194193193192192193

198200201204

paid by far

Familylivingitems

109114118123133151166176

174174175177177178179180181

182(3)(3)(3)

mers

Produc-tion

items

104108113121146166182193

193193196196194194192191193

196199201204

Parity

Actual

7372697491857671

737375747171686668

68696970

ratio 1

Adjusted 2

7977737994867672

737475757272696769

68707070

1 Percentage ratio of index of prices received by fanners to index of prices paid,interest, taxes, and wage rates on 1910-14=100 base.

» The adjusted parity ratio reflects Government payments made directly tofanners.

3 Index discontinued. Consumer price index (Department of Labor) substitutedin calculating total prices paid beginning January 1977.

Source: Department of Agriculture. 25


MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETSMONEY STOCKMi grew at an annual rate of 21.6 percent in April while M2 grew at a rate of 13.9 percent.


300 — 300

200 200

1969

* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM

1977


[Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted]

Period

1972: Dec...1973: Dec...1974: Dec...1975: Dec...1976:Dec___1976: Apr___

May__June__July..Aug___Sept..OctNov ._Dec __

1977: Jan___Feb__Mar__Apr »_

Over

M,

255. 3270.5283. 1294.8312.8301.8303. 5303.2305.0306. 5306.9310.5310.6312.8314.3314.5316. 1321. 3

all measi

M2

525.3571.4612.4664.3739. 3690. 6695.7698.2705.2710.4716.3725.7731.7739.3745. 0749. 1754.2762.4

ires l

M3

844.5919.6981.5

1, 092. 61, 236. 11, 139. 71, 149. 71, 156. 51, 168. 81, 180. 81, 193. 91, 210. 51, 222. 81, 236. 11, 247. 61, 256. 61, 266. 21, 279. 2

Cur-rency

56.961.567.873.780. 676.677.377.578. 178.679.279. 880. 380.681.382.082.483. 3

Deposi

Demand

198.4209.0215.3221. 0232. 1225.2226. 2225. 6226.9227.9227.7230.7230.3232. 1233.0232.5233.7238. 1

Compon

ts at coi

Tim

Total

313.5363.9418.3451.7489.8460.0460. 7465.3469.0468.9472.5477.5483.4489. 8493.8497. 8500.2502. 7

tents anc

nmercia

e and sa

LargeCDs

43.563. 089.082. 163.371.268.670.268.965.063. 162.362. 263.363. 163.362.261. 6

related il

banks

vings

Other

270.0300.9329.3369.6426. 5388. 9392. 1395. 1400. 1403.9409.4415. 2421.2426.5430. 7434.5438.0441. 1

terns

Depositsat

nonbankthrift

institu-tions

319.3348. 1369. 1428.3496.8449. 1454.0458. 2463.6470.5477.6484.8491.0496.8502.6507.5512.0516.8

U.S. Gov-ernmentdemanddeposits

(unadjust-ed)

7.46.34.94. 14.53.93.84.83.53.75.04.04. 14. 53.94. 14. 35.3

Perchai

M,

9.26.04.74. 16. 15.85.45.86.76.66.05.84.76.46.25.36. 17. 1

centage 2

M2

11.48.87.28.5

11.310.910.410.510.79.7

10. 110. 410.612. 111.611.210.910.4

! is currency plus demand deposits; M2 is MI plus time deposits at com-mercial banks other than large certificates of deposit (CDs); and M3 is M2 plusdeposits at nonbank thrift institutions.

26

J Annual changes are from December to December and monthly changes arefrom 6 months earlier at a seasonally adjusted annual rate.

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Keserve system.


PRIVATE LIQUID ASSET HOLDINGS— NONFINANCIAI, INVESTORS[Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted]

Period

1970: Dec1971: Dec1972: Dec1973: Dec1974: Dec1975: Dec1976: Dec

1976: Apr__ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _May _ _ __ _JuneJuly.Aug _ _ _Sept.OctNovDec

1977: Jan_FebMar__ _Apr v _ _

Totalliquidassets

769.5852. 5967.9

1, 079. 51, 166. 21, 289. 71, 424. 1

1, 334. 51, 344. 91, 354. 91, 368. 81, 378. 51, 388. 21, 403. 61, 413. 81, 424. 1

1, 438. 41, 451. 91, 461. 01, 475. 2

Total

632.4718.7817.0887.4944.5

1, 053. 31, 191. 1

1, 100. 91, 111. 11, 117. 11, 129. 11, 141. 31, 153. 21, 168. 61, 179. 31, 191. 1

1, 204. 11, 212. 51, 221. 81, 235. 2

Curr<

Cur-rency

49. 152.656.961.567.873.780.6

76.677. 377.578. 178. 679.279.880. 380.6

81.382.082.483.3

mcy and

Demanddeposits

151.8161.5176.5183.3186. 5190. 7197.0

194.6195.9194. 7195.6196.3195. 5197.8196. 3197. 0

199. 2198.3199. 3203.9

deposits

Time d

Com-mercialbanks

198.9233. 6264.4294.4321. 1360.6416. 6

380. 6383. 9386.7391.8395. 9401.0406.2411. 8416.6

421. 0424.8428. 1431. 1

eposits

Nonbankthrift

institu-tions

232.7271. 1319.3348. 1369. 1428.3496.8

449. 1454. 0458.2463.6470.5477.6484.8491. 0496. 8

502.6507. 5512.0516.9

U.S. TJsecui

Savingsbonds

52.054.357.560.463.367.371.9

68.769. 069.469.770.270.871. 171.571.9

72. 372.773.073.4

reasury•ities

Short-term

market-able se-curities

41.931.734.543.247.466. 366.6

68.969. 169.771. 471.469.769.669.366. 6

67.671.070. 671.0

Nego-tiablecertifi-

cates ofdeposit

21. 827.636.254.070.760.045.0

51.349.651.250.346. 745. 344.844. 445. 0

44.344. 743. 342.6

Otherprivatemoneymarketinstru-ments

21.420.222.734.540.442.849.5

44.846. 147.448.248. 849.249.449.449.5

50. 151. 152.353.1

NOTE.—Data revised beginning 1975. Source: Board of Governors oi the Federal Reserve System.

CONSUMER INSTALMENT CREDIT[Millions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted]

Period

19691970197119721973197419751976

1976: MarAprMayJuneJulyAugSeptOctNovDec

1977: JanFebMar

Instalm

Total *

109, 146112, 175123, 086140, 072160, 228160, 008163, 483186, 221

15, 52115, 00315, 04115, 59215, 24015, 68515, 77516, 05515, 76316, 702

16, 87017, 18618, 253

ent credit e:

Auto-mobile

32, 55329, 96534, 77840, 26646, 10543, 20948, 10355, 807

4, 6894,5834,4714,6004,4774, 7124,7694,5874,6325,263

4,9405,2055,654

stended

Bankcreditcards

4,3986,7688,377

10, 39013, 86317, 09820,42825, 481

2, 1181,9852, 1032,0882, 1522, 1832,1652, 1982,1812,217

2, 1172,3322,434

Instalm*

Total l

99, 786107, 385113, 788124, 513140, 552151, 056156, 640169, 682

14, 04813, 57613, 56614, 26113, 93714, 28214, 29414, 49114, 52014, 879

14, 95215, 16415, 536

3nt credit lie

Auto-mobile

29, 97430, 43231, 30334, 70540, 13742, 88345, 47248, 337

4,0263,8513,8194,0743,9224, 0904,1654,0594, 1554,250

4, 1834,3204,453

juidated

Bankcreditcards

3,0665,6157,6799,472

12, 43315, 65519, 20823, 905

1,9261,8461,9111,9901,9812,0972,0002,0742,1102,250

2,0892,1612, 141

Net change

Total l

9,3604,7909,299

15, 55919, 6768,9526,843

16, 539

1,4731,4271,4741,3301,3031,4031,4811,5641,2431,823

1,9182,0222,717

in amount

Auto-mobile

2,579-4683,4765,5615,968

3272,6317,470

663732652526556621605528477

1,013

758884

1,201

outstanding

Bankcreditcards

1,3321, 153

699918

1,4301,4431,2201,576

19213919398

17186

16612371

-33

28170293

- •• includes some items not shown separately. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

27


BANK LOANS, INVESTMENTS, AND RESERVESBusiness loans at commercial banks increased at an annual rate of 12.5 percent in April while bank holdings <U.S. Government securities fell.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)

1,000

800

600

400

200

"ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS" 1,000

800

600

400

200

INVESTMENT IN OTHER SECURITIES||M««|||ltl**

m*

MtMIMMMM"***" '••«"***'

10)

80

60

40

„..,.'«'""*"*

M h l I II II I ! I II I I I I I I I I I I 1 I

„„.*•»•"«",„,„„„»«««"'

INVESTMENT IN

U.S. GOVERNMENT SECURITIES

I ! i I I I M I

100

80

60

401969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977

* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED, END OF MONTHSOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted]

Period

19691970 ..1971.19721973__.19741975__1976*1976: Apr

MayJuneJuly *Aug»Sept 9Oct*Nov p_Dec 9

1977: Jan »Feb 9Mar p _Apr 9

Totalloansand

invest-ments

401.7435.5485. 7558.0633.4

4 690. 4721. 1774.9740.3744.0748.8750.2756.0759. 8767.6773.8774.9

780.5790. 1797. 1806.4

Allc

L<

Total ex-cludinginter-bank279.4292.0320.9378.9449.0500.2496. 9528. 1505.8506.5509. 3511. 1514.0517. 9525.8528.4528. 1

535. 0539. 3545. 3551.9

ommercial b

:>ans

Commer-cial and

industrial

105.7110.0116. 1130.2156.4183.3176.0

5 178. 8171.8172.2172. 1173.0173.3174.4177.2179.3178.8

179.9181.4183.0184.8

anks l

Investn

U.S. Gov-ernmentsecurities

51.257.860.662.654.550.479.496.990.293. 194.793. 095.594.493.894.796.9

96. 1100.7102.7101. 9

lents

Othersecu-rities

71. 185.7

104.2116.5129.9139.8144.8149.9144.3144.4144.8146. 1146.5147.5148.0150.7149.9

149.4150. 1149. 1152. 6

I

Total

27.9429. 1231.2231.4134.9436.6034.73349534.0534. 1734.2934.3434.5134.3434.5134. 8534. 95

34.7834.4034.3134.68

All me

leserves 2 3

Non-borrowed

26.8228.7931. 1030.3633.6435.8734.6034.9034.0034.0534. 1634.2134.41342734 4134.783490

34.71343334203461

mber ban

Re-quired

27.6628.8731.0431. 1234.6436.343446346833.8933.96340734 11343134 14342934 593468

3451342034 093449

ksBorrowiilions ofunadju

Total

1,086321107

1,0491,298

7031276244

12112012310475668462

6179

11073

ags (mil-dollars,isted) *

Sea-sonal

41321312111120242831322112

8121315

1 Data are tor end of period.2 Averages of daily figures. Annual data are for December.3 Member bank reserves series reflects actual reserve requirement percentages

with no adjustment to eliminate the effect of changes in Kegulations D and M.

28

4 During 1974. total loans and investments were increased $0.6 billion dna bank merger and were reduced $1.5 billion due to liquidation of a large ban*.

5 Loan ^classifications reduced these loans by $1.2 billion as of March 31,1976.Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Keserve System.


SOURCES AND USES OF FUNDS, NONFARM NONFINANCIAL CORPORATEBUSINESS


T> • A

19691970197119721973197419751976 *>— _1975: I

IIIIIIV

1976: I _IIIIIIV »

Total

118.6105. 1129.0154.0181.7183.0145.5204.683.5

130.7171.0196.7202.3201.4200.8213.7

Inter-nal1

61.758.968.680.883. 877.6

103.4122.483.5

101.5113.6114. 9120.6121.3126.0121.7

Total

56.946.260. 473.297.8

105. 442. 182.2

.029. 257.481.881. 780. 174.892. 0

Sources

Credi

Tnf al

38.441.546. 458.872.983. 137. 153. 135.032. 131. 150.046.947.848.968.6

External

t market

Long-term 2

20.832.641. 641.437.439.649.848.052.954.437.954. 050.042.948.350.8

funds

Short-term 3

17.78.94.7

17.335.543.5

— 12.85.0

— 18. 0-22.2-6.8-4.0-3. 1

4.8. 6

17.6

Other

18.54.8

14.014.425.022.25.0

29. 1-35.0-2.926. 331.734.832. 425. 923.4

Total

113.496. 1

115. 1137.5165.5169.9130.9195.968.6

115.3157. 9182.2192.0197.8190. 6203.2

Uses

Pur-chase

ofphysi-

calassets 4

85.080.686.2

101.0124. 4134. 695.7

138.489. 880.9

106.8105. 5129.6138.8145.2139.9

In-crease

infinan-cial

assets

28.415.428.836. 541. 135. 335.257.5

-21. 234. 451. 176.762.459.045.463.3

Dis-crep-ancy

(sourcesless

uses)

5. 29.0

13.916.416. 113. 114. 58.7

14.915.413.214.610.43. 6

10.310. 5

1 Undistributed profits (after inventory valuation and capital consumptionadjustments), capital consumption allowances, and foreign branch profits.2 Stocks, bonds, and mortgages.

3 Bank loans, commercial paper, finance company loans, bankers' acceptances,and Government loans.

4 Plant and equipment, residential structures, inventory investment, and min-eral rights.

Source; Board of Governors of the Fedsral Reserve System.

CURRENT ASSETS AND LIABILITIES OF NONFINANCIAL CORPORATIONS[Billions of dollars]

End ofperiod

19691970197119721973197419751976

1975: !_._.II._.III_.IV.._

1976: !___.II...III__IV___

Total

473.6492. 3529.6573.5643.3712.2731. 6816.8

698.4703.2716.5731.6

753.5775.4791.8816.8

Cashon

handandin

banks l

47.950.253.357.561.662.768. 177.0

60.663.765.668. 1

68. 470.871. 177.0

Ci

U.S.Gov-ern-ment

securi-ties2

10.67.7

11.09.3

11.011.719. 426.4

12. 112.714.319.4

21.723.323.926.4

irrent ass<

Receiv-ablesfromU.S.Gov-ern-

ment1

4.84.23.53.43.53.53. 64.3

3.23.33.33.6

3.63.74.34.3

JtS

Notesandac-

countsreceiv-

able

192.2201.9217.6240.0266. 1289.7294. 6323.9

281.9284.8294.7294.6

307.3318. 1324.2323.9

In-ven-tories

186.4193.3200.4215.2246.7288.0285. 8315.4

285.2281.4279.6285.8

288.8295.6302.1315. 4

Othercur-rentas-

sets 4

31.635.043.848. 154.456.660. 069.8

55.457.359.060.0

63.663.966.369.8

Total

287.8304.9326.0352.2401.0450.6457. 5499.9

438.0434.2444.7457.5

465.9475.9484. 1499.9

Gun

Ad-vances

andpre-pay-

ments,U.S.Gov-ern-

ment s

7.36.64.94.04.35.26.47.0

5.35.86.26.4

6.46.87.07.0

rent liabi

Notesandac-

countspay-able

191.9204.7215.6230.4261.6287.5281. 6295.9

271.2270. 1273.4281.6

280.5287*0284.7295.9

lities

Fed-eralin-

cometax

liabili-ties

12.610.013. 115. 118. 123.220.726.8

21.817.719.420.7

23.922.024.926.8

Othercur-rentlia-bili-ties5

76.083.692.4

102.6117.0134.8148.8170.2

139.8140.6145.6148.8

155.0160. 1167.5170.2

Network-ingcapi-tal

185.7187.4203.6221.3242. 3261.5274. 1316.9

260.4269.0271.8274. 1

287.6299.4307.7316.9

L Includes time certificates of deposit,es Federal agency issues.ables from and payables to the U.S. Government do not include

nts offset against each other on corporations' books or amounts arising fromsubcontracting which are not directly due from or to the U.S. Government.Wherever possible, adjustments have been made to include U.S. Governmentadvances offset against inventories on corporations' books.

4 Includes marketable investments (other than Coverrnent securities andtime certificates of deposit) as v ell as sundry current resets.

*Includes coirirereial paper outstanding, the portion of long-term debt duein less than 1 year, and miscellaneous current liabilities not elsewhere classified.

Source: Securities and Exchange Commission.


INTEREST RATES AND BOND YIELDSShort-term interest rates rose in early May and the prime rate charged by banks was raised from 6% to 6% percef^

PERCENT PER ANNUM PERCENT PER ANNUM

JCI— 1 DIS

FERE

6ANE\

1969

„

/ >»_r"^ —' \\ \\ ,v\

COUNT \>-RATE \DERAL \SERVE *J

NK OFV YORK

1970

V

I A\ k~(

• '••• !\ / \ '\ 1 \

"'• / ':

V

II 1 ! 1 ! I 1 I I 1

1971

„--"-

/*•""

4

J

»•••..»*

i i i i i I i i i i i

1972

CORPORATE

(MOO

A• :/ !1 *JH

/ H ?

Jtf 1_J1*

1 1 I I 1 I 1 1 1 I 11973

taa BONDSDY'S)

\ Ax/ s/•

/C * :

<'l\ V \ L\P UV '\

/TREASURY i

I i i i i I i i i i i1974

/*» ^**V7 ^

L

\X/Vu// \ / h

'ss 'JILLS

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 r i • i i1975

^" ^**>.X\

A I. / V U

W \\V

M II I I I I I I I

1976

<»**

.-.*.. /

'

1 i i i i 1 i i i riK1977

10 10

SOURCE: SEE TABLE BELOW COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Percent per annum]

Period

1971. _ _1972 _19731974197519761976: May

JuneJulyAugSeptOct_NovDec

1977: JanFebMarAprMay

Week ended:1977: Apr. 29

May 6132027

U.S. Gove

3-monthTreasury

bills l

4.3484.0717. 0417.8865.8384.9895. 1855.4435.2785. 1535.0754.9304.8104.3544.5974.6624.6134.5404.942

4.5184.8074.8224.9965. 143

rnment seen

3-5 yearissues 2

5.775.856.927.817.556.947.357.407.247.046.846.506.355.966.496.696.736.58

6. 616. 726.786.79

rity yields

Taxablebonds '

5.745.636.306.996.986.786.996.926.856.796.706.656.626.396.687. 157.207. 14

7. 157.207. 207. 17

High-grade

municipalbonds

(Standard& Poor's)4

5.705. 275. 186.096.896.496.876.856.646.286.206.066.055.695.705.755.765.61

5.545.635.695.62

CorporateAaa

bonds(Moody's)

7.397.217.448.578.838.438.588.628.568.458.388.328. 257.987.968.048. 108.04

8.018.048.078.06

Primecom-

mercialpaper,4-6

months

5. 114. 698. 159.876.335.355.545. 945.675.475. 455.225.054.704.744.824.874.87

4.864.985.255.53

Discountrate

(N.Y.F.R.

Bank)8

4.884.506.457.836.255.50

5 -̂S1/5H-5H5V2-5

1/25H-5H5H-5H5H-5H

5^-5^5H-5K5H~5145J4-5M

5M~ 5M5K-5K5%—5l/i5%— 5%

Primerate

chargedby

banks 8

5.725.258.03

10.817.866.84

6%-6%7 -7y47K-7K

7 -77 -6%

6%-6%51,̂ 5̂6K~6^gi,^_gi^gi^_gi£

6J4~6K6%-6}46K-6H6^—6}^

New-home

mortgageyields

(FHLBB)6

7.747.607.958.929. Ql8.998.978.898.979.029.089.079.059.109.058.998.958.94

1 Eate on new issues within period.2 Selected note and bond issues.3 April 1953 to date, bonds due or callable 10 years and after.* Weekly data are Wednesday figures.s Average effective rate for year; opening and closing rate for month and week.

30

6 Effective rate (in the primary market) on conventicnal mortgages, refleifees and charges as well as contract rate and assumed, on the average, repayiat end of 10 years. Kates beginning January 1973 not strictly comparableprior rates.

Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Keserve System, Federal HomeLoan Bank Board, Moody's Investors Service, and Standard & Poor'sCorporation.


COMMON STOCK PRICES AND YIELDSStock prices remained relatively stable in late April and early May.

INDEX, DEC 31,1965=5080

INDEX, DEC 31,1965=5080

50 -

40

30 -

1969

PERCENT

20

15

50

40

- 30

PERCENT.•

EARNINGS-PRICE RATIO ON COMMON STOCKS

(S&P)

10 10

I I I I

1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977

SOURCES: NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE AND STANDARD & POOR'S CORPORATION COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

Period

1971197219731974197519761976: Apr

MayJuneJulyAug_SeptO c t _ _ _ ..Nov__Dec___.

1977: JanFebMar. _ _ _ _Apr

Week ended:1977: Apr 22

29May 6___

1320___

New York

Composite

54. 2260. 2957.4243.8445. 7354. 4654.2853. 8754.2355. 6855. 1856.2954.4354. 1756.3456. 2854. 9354. 6753.92

54.3953.3254. 3154. 1054.52

Stock Exel:

Industrial

57.9265.7363. 0848.0850. 5260. 4460.6260. 2260.7062. 1161. 1462.3560. 0759. 4561.5461.2659. 6559. 5658.47

58.9657.6358. 7058.3158. 73

Comi

tange indexe

Transpor-tation

44. 3550. 1737.7431. 8931. 1039.5738. 6639. 7140. 4142. 1240. 6340. 3638. 3739.2841. 7741. 9340. 5940.5241.51

42. 5641.6842.8043. 1044. 09

lion stock p

s (Dec. 31,

Utility

39. 5338.4837.6929. 7931.5036.9735.6935. 4035. 1636.4937. 5638.7738. 3338.8540.6141. 1340.8640. 1840.24

40. 5240.2040.9741. 2341.51

rices 1

1965 = 50) 2

Finance

70. 3878.3570. 1249. 6747. 1452.9452. 7150. 9951.8254. 0654. 2254.5252. 7453. 2557.4557.8655.6554. 8454.30

54.8554. 1054. 9254. 9755.49

Dow-Jones

industrialaverage s

884. 76950. 71923. 88759. 37802. 49974. 92992. 51988. 82985. 59993. 20981. 63994. 37951. 95944. 58976. 86970. 62941. 77946. 11929. 10

937. 40921. 64937. 26930. 00935. 57

Standard& Poor'scomposite

index(1941-43 =

10) *

98. 29109. 20107. 4382. 8586. 16

102. 01101. 93101. 16101. 77104. 20103. 29105. 45101. 89101. 19104. 66103. 81100. 96100. 5799.05

99. 8497.7799. 5899. 0499.77

Common g(perc

Dividend-

ratio

3. 142.843.064.474.313.773.663. 763.753.643.743.713. 854. 043.933.994.214.374.47

4.424.554. 514.584.51

tock yieldsent) 5

Earnings-

ratio

5.415.507. 12

11.599. 15

"8. 89

8.87

9.07

"9. 20

1 Averages of daily closing prices.1 Includes all the stocks (more than 1,500) listed on the N YSE.1 Includes 30stocks. * Includes500stocks.5 Standard & Poor's series. Dividend-price ratios based on Wednesday closing

prices. Earnings-price ratios based on prices at end of quarter.

NOTE.—All data relate to stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange(NYSE).

Sources: New York Stock Exchange, Dow-Jones & Company, Inc., and Stand-ard & Poor's Corporation. <j ••


FEDERAL FINANCEFEDERAL BUDGET RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS AND DEBTIn the first 7 months of fiscal 1977 (October 1976-April 1977), there was a budget deficit of $37.0 billion. A yearearlier there was a deficit of $48.9 billion.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS500


200 - 200

50

0

-50

-100

50

0

-50

-100

SURPLUS (+) OR DEFICIT (-)

1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974

FISCAL YEARS

1975 1976 1977 1978

SOURCESi DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND iUDGET COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars]

Period

Fiscal year or period:19691970197119721973197419751976 „Transition quarter ....1977 (estimates) :

Current estimates, April 1977 2

Third Concurrent Resolution 3_1978 (estimates):

Current estimates, April 1977 2

First Concurrent Resolution 4 __

October 1975- April 1976October 1976- April 1977 5__ _ _ _ __ _

Receipts

187.8193. 7188. 4208. 6232.2264. 9281. 0300.081.8

359. 5356.6

404.7396.3

167.4195.7

Outlays

184.5196. 621L 4232.0247.1269. 6326. 1366.594. 7

408.2409.2

462.6461.0

216.3232. 7

Surplus ordeficit (-)

3. 2-2.8

-23.0-23.4-14.8-4.7

—45. 1-66.5-13. 0

-48.7-52.6

57.9-64.7

48.9-37.0

Federal debt (

Tnt ill 1

367. 1382.6409. 5437.3468.4486. 2544. 1631.9646.4

727.0

802.4

612.8681.9

end of period)

Held bythe public

279.5284.9304.3323. 8343.0346. 1396. 9480. 3498.3

571. 3

637. 1

471.8534.6

1 Excludes non-interest-bearing public debt securities held by IMF.2 Estimates from Current Budget Estimates, April 1977, Office of Managementand Budget.

s Third Concurrent Resolution on the Budget—Fiscal year 1977, revised May17,1977.

* First Concurrent Resolution on the Budget—Fiscal year 1978, May 17,1977.5 First 7 months of fiscal year 1977.Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget,

except as noted.

32


CEDERAL BUDGET RECEIPTS BY SOURCE ANDOUTLAYS BY FUNCTIONIn the first 7 months of fiscal 1977 (October 1976-ApriI 1977), budget receipts were $28.3 billion higher than ayear earlier and budget outlays, $16.4 billion higher.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

200

100

-RECEIPTS-

CORPORATION INCOME TAXES/ \

— ...... OTHER RECEIPTS „„„„„„„„—— J—«™«-*-—'

200

100

400

300

200

100

OUTLAYS

NONDEFENSE

400

300

200

100

1969 1970 1971 1972

SOURCES; DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET

1973 1974

FISCAL YEARS

1975 1976 1977 1978


[Billions of dollars]

Fiscal year or period:19691970 _ _ _ _ _19711972_ _ _ _ _ „1973_1974 __1975 _ _1976 _ _Transition quarter.19771

19781

October 1975-April 1976__October 1976- April 1977 2

Total

187.8193. 7188. 4208.6232. 2264. 9281.0300.081.8

359. 5404.7

167. 4195.7

Rece

Indi-vidualincometaxes

87.290.486.294.7

103.2119. 0122.4131. 638. 8

160. 1183.0

75. 887.7

ipts

Corpo-rationincometaxes

36.732. 826. 832. 236.238. 640.641. 48.5

55.061.3

22. 428. 7

Other

63.970.575.481. 792. 8

107.4118.0127. 034.5

144. 4160.4

69.379.3

Total

184. 5196.6211. 4232.0247. 1269.6326. 1366.5

94.7408.2462.6

216.3232. 7

Nationa

Total

80.279. 376.877.475. 178.686. 690. 022. 597. 1

112. 8

52.854. 4

(

1 defense

Depart-ment ofDefense,military

77. 977.274.575.273.377.685.088.021. 996.2

109. 1

52.055. 2

)utlays

Interna-tionalaffairs

3.83.63. 13.93. 54.85. 95. 12.06.67. 2

2. 73. 1

Healthand

incomesecurity

49.056. 170. 181.491, 8

106.5136.3160.941.5

177.7193.3

96. 0102.9

In-terest

15.818.319. 620.622.828, 131.034.67.2

37.840.9

20. 221.4

Other

35.739.341.848.853.951.766.476.021. 589.0

108. 4

44. 650.8

1 Estimates from Current Budget Estimates, April 1977.2 First 7 months of fiscal year 1977.Source: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget.

33


FEDERAL SECTOR, NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS BASISAccording to preliminary estimates for the first quarter, Federal receipts rose $20.0 billion (annual rate) and expendi-tures $2.0 billion, yielding a deficit of $41.3 billion, $18.0 billion less than the deficit in the fourth quarter of 1976.


400

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

440

160

40

-40

-80

-120

40

-40

-80

-120

SURPLUS

DEFICIT

1969

"I

1970

iiii

1971

^ m m n

1972

Y/A fcZd w*Q *&3

1973

"" &22 WA Kgl

1974

ImIII

197

I1

5

I1\% I1

19

IW

76

1n \1977

CALENDAR YEARS



Period

Fiscal year:197419751976Calendar

year:19721973197419751976

1975: III..IV___

1976: IIL_-III..IV __

1977: !*___

Total

271.9283. 2313.6

227.5258.3288.2286. 5330.3

297. 7306.7

316.5324. 6333.8346.3

366. 3

Federal (

Personaltax andnontaxreceipts

122. 6127.3137.2

108. 2114. 6131.2125.7145. 3

130.5135. 1

137.7141.9147.2154.5

165. 9

jrovernm

Corpo-rate

profitstax

accruals

43.841. 651.0

36.643. 045.642. 655.6

47.449.4

53. 154.856.258.4

59. 4

ent reeeip

Indirectbusinesstax andnontaxaccruals

21.422. 124. 5

20. 021. 221.723.923.5

25. 225.5

22.823. 323.824. 1

24. 5

ts

Contri-butions

forsocial in-surance

84. 192. 2

100.9

62. 879.489,894.3

105.8

94.796. 6

102. 9104. 6106.6109.3

116. 5

Total

278.9329. 5373.0

244.7265. 0299.7357.8388.9

363. 7376.0

380.3378.7391. 1405.6

407.6

I

Pur-chases

of goodsand

services

104.8119. 0127. 2

102. 1102. 2111.6124.4133.4

124. 6130. 4

129. 2131. 2134. 5138.9

138.2

^ederal (

Trans-fer pay-ments

104.7134. 1156.7

83.295. 8

117.6148.9162.2

152. 1154. 9

160. 3158. 7163. 1166.5

171.9

•rovernm

Grants-in-aid

to Stateandlocal

govern-ments

41.648. 357.5

37.540. 643.954. 460.2

56.858.0

58. 856. 360. 165.5

61. 3

ent expe

Netinterest

paid

19.821. 925. 8

14.618.220.923.527.5

23. 625.6

26.627.427.728.4

28. 6

nditures

Subsidiesless

currentsurplus ofGovern-ment en-terprises

7.95. 75.8

7.88. 25.26.55.6

6.77. 1

5.45.25.66.3

7.6

Less:Wage

accrualslessdis-

burse-ments

-0.2-.4

.0

.5

.0

. o

.0

.0

.0

.0

.0

. 0

.0

.0

.0

Surplusor

deficit(-),nationalincome

andproductaccounts

-7. 1-46.3-59.4

-17.3-6.7

-11.5-71.2-58. 6

-66.0-69.4

-63.8-54. 1-57.4-59. 3

-41.3

Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis), Department of the Treasury, and Office of Management and Budget.

34


INTERNATIONAL STATISTICSINDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMER PRICES—MAJOR

INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES[1967=100]

Period

19701971___ _ _197219731974___ _ _ _197519761976: Sept.—

O c t _ _ _NovD e c _ _ _

1977: Jan___Feb—Mar__Apr

In

UnitedStates

107.8109.6119.7129.8129.3117.8129.8130.8130.4131.8133. 1132. 1133.2135. 0136. 1

dustria]

Can-ada

114. 1122. 0130.6142.4146.6139. 7146.3146.8145.5147. 0148.4149. 9149.6149. 5

I produc

Ja-pan

151. 6155.8167.0193. 1187.6167.4189.9191. 2191. 5196.4196.4196. 5

3tion (sei

France

123127137147151138152159151156153160156

isonally

Ger-many

131.3133.3139.0149. 1146.9137.9147.8151. 1154. 1149. 1147. 3157.7151. 4

ad juste

Italy

116.9116.8121. 8133.7139.7126.8142. 5147.8143.6149.9154. 0152. 2152.7

d)

UnitedKing-dom

111111114122120113116117118119118119119

UnitedStates

116.3121. 3125.3133. 1147.7161. 2170.5172. 6173.3173.8174.3175.3177. 1178.2179.6

Con

Can-ada

112.4115. 6121. 1130.3144. 5160. 0172.0174.0175. 2175.7176.3177.9179.4181. 3182. 1

sumer i

Japan

119.6127. 1133.2148. 9182.6204.7224.4228.3230.4231.2233.7236.6237.8238. 9242.7

>riees (ui

France

117. 1123.3130,8140.4159. 6178.2195.4199.3201. 2202.8203.5204. 1205.5207. 4

iadjuste<

Ger-many

107. 1112. 7118. 9127.2136. 1144. 2150.8151.4151.5151.8152.6154.0154.9155.5156. 2

D

Italy

109.1114.4121. 0134. 1159.6186.8218. 1224. 0230.5235.5238.6241. 3246. 7

UnitedKing-dom

117.5128.6137.7150.4174.4216.7252.9258.2262. 9266.5270.0277. 1279.9282.6

Source: National sources as reported by Department of Commerce, Bureauof Economic Analysis, in Business Conditions Digest.

U.S. MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS[Millions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted]

Period

Monthlyaverage :

19731974

1974197519761976: A p r _ _ _ _

MayJuneJu ly___AugSept.-.OctNovDec

1977: JanFebMarApr_ _

Totaldomes-tic andforeign

ex-ports

5,9028, 159

8, 1598,9289, 5679,3699, 5639,7229,9569,7379,7889,6999, 589

10,410

9,5999,808

10, 0729,970

Merch

]

Total i 2

F.

5,8118,045

8,0458,8039,428

andise e

Domestic

Food,bever-ages,

and to-bacco

a.s. valu

1,0781,269

1,2691,3991,4361,4831,3541,3871,4591,4761,4421,6391, 3981,379

1,2501,2651,4511,350

xports

3 exports

Crudemate-rialsandfuels

e 5

8951,317

1,3171,2661,3411, 2751,3531,3501,3631,2831,4901,4691,4821,475

1,4091,5741,4821,684

Manu-fac-turedgoods

3,7285,294

5,2945, 9136,4376,2446,4486,5526, 6296, 5496,4406,2856,4577,337

6,4596,4836, 7456,479

Total 2

5,7908,416

8,3548,010

10, 0579,6439,182

10, 15310, 71710, 47710, 65110, 55510, 62311, 020

11,26911, 67412, 45912, 593

Merc!

Ge

Food,bever-ages,

and to-bacco

Custom

770892

F.a.s. <892827991904938

1,0411,036

972998986

1, 0301, 142

1, 1501,2611,2911,468

landise i

neral im

Crudemate-rialsandfuels

s value

1, 1202,653

value 5

2,6722,7163,4563,2822,7933,4323,8173, 7613,7473,7883,9053,808

3,9464, 1114,9644,572

mports

ports 3

Manu-fac-

turedgoods

3,7504,684

4,6024,2575,3985,2835,2525, 3555,6175,5465,6655,5095,7245,832

5,8615,9206,0696,244

Total(c.i.f.

value) 4

6, 1319,000

9,0008,616

10, 79710, 3539,873

10, 95311, 50811, 25311, 44911, 30811, 38111, 789

12, 05912, 46313, 28313, 419

Mei

Ex-ports(f.a.s.)lessim-

ports(cus-toms

value)

112-257

-257852

-582-374

267-570-850-830-972-924

-1,128-707

-1,758-1,956-2,484-2,707

-ehandisebalance

Ex-ports(f.a.s.)

lessim-

ports(f.a.s.)

-195

-195918

-489-274

380-431-761-740-863-857

-1,034-610

-1,670-1,866-2,387-2,623

3 trade

Exports(f.a.s.)

lessimports(c.i.f.)

-229-841

-841312

-1,230-983— 310

-1,231-1,552-1, 516-1,660-1,610-1,791-1,379

-2, 460-2, 655-3,212-3,449

Total excludes Department of Defense shipments of grant-aid military sup-s and equipment under the Military Assistance Program.

*Total includes commodities and transactions not classified according to kind.3 Total arrivals of imported goods other than intransit shipments.4 C.i.f. (cost, insurance, and freight) import value at first port of entry in theUnited States. Data for 1973 are estimates.

5 F.a.s. (free alongside ship) value basis: at U.S. port of exportation for exportsand at foreign port of exportation for imports.

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.

35


U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONSThe U.S. merchandise trade balance registered a deficit of $6.9 billion in the first quarter of this year. The value oFimports rose 10 percent from the fourth quarter reflecting a sharp rise in petroleum shipments, while the value of exportswas essentially flat due to continued sluggish economic activity abroad.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

6


1968


1976


[Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted]

Period

19701971197219731974197519761975:111—

IV. -1976: I

II.__-III.__I V _ _ _

1977: I 4 _ _ _

Me

Ex-ports

42, 46943, 31949, 38171, 41098, 310

107, 088114, 69226, 56227, 65726, 99728, 37829, 60029, 71729, 668

;rchandise

Im-ports

-39,866-45, 579-55, 797-70,499-103,679-98,058-123,916-24,483-25,437-28, 324-29, 914-32,387-33, 291-36, 581

1 2

Netbal-ance

2,603-2,260-6,416

911-5,369

9,030-9,224

2,0792,220

-1,327-1,536-2,787-3, 574-6,913

Milits

Directex-

pendi-tures

-4, 855-4, 819-4, 784-4, 629-5,035-4, 780-4,813-1,093-1, 185-1, 150-1,219-], 235-1,208

try trans

Sales

1,5011,9261, 1632,3422,9523,8975,204

9781, 1971, 1351,0641, 5741,431

actions

Netbal-ance

-3, 355-2, 893-3, 621-2, 287-2, 083

-883391

-11512

-15-155

339223

Netiiment ;

Pri-vate 3

3, 6315,6596,2088, 188

13, 4619,430

13, 7762,4872,4853,0753,2053,5553,941

nvest-ncome

U.S.Gov-ern-ment

-112-956

-1,888-3,010-3,234-3,423-3,238

-805-815-789-737-771-941

Net-traveland

trans-porta-tion

receipts

-2, 023-2,315-3,028-3,086-3, 107-2,503-2, 205

-568-750-726-369-403-707

Otherserv-ices,net 3

2, 1902,5092,7893,1883,9194, 6664,9011, 1871,2051,2011, 1501,2631,285

Bal-anceon

goodsand

serv-ices *

2,938-256

-5, 9543,9053,586

16, 3164,4014,2654,3571,4191,5581, 196

227

Re-mit-

tance?,pen-sions,and

otheruni-

lateraltrans-fers1

-3, 294-3, 701-3, 848-3,883-7, 184-4, 620-5,005-1,044-1,251-1, 118

-920-1,925-1,044

Bal-anceon

cur-rentac-

count

-356-3, 957-9,802

22-3,59811, 697

-6043,2213,106

301638

-729-817

1 Excludes military grants.2 Adjusted from Census data for differences in timing and coverage.3 Fees and royalties from U.S. direct investments abroad or from foreign direct

investments in the United States are excluded from net investment income andincluded in other services, net.

4 Preliminary; not charted.Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

36


J.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—ContinuedI.S. assets abroad increased $43.0 billion in 1976 compared with a rise of $31.6 billion in 1975. The increase in

large part was accounted for by bank lending to foreigners. Foreign assets in the United States rose sharply last year,by $33.1 billion, with foreign official assets responsible for most of the increase.



CHANGE INU.S. ASSETS

ABROAD. NET

-10

-151968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976


[Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]

Period

197019711972 „ _ .197319741975. ___1976

1975:III_.__IV ._

1976:1I I _ _I I I__.IV.__.

77: I"1

U.J[mere*

Total

-6,032-9,596- 10, 245-16,434-33, 392-31, 593-43, 021

-4,411-11,238

-10,007-9, 875-8, 681

-14,459

3. assetsise/eapital

U.S.officialreserveassets 1 2

2,4772,348

32209

-1,434-607

-2,530

-34289

-773-1, 578

-407228

-388

abroad, noutflow

OtherU.S.

Govern-mentassets

-1,589-1,884-1,568-2,645

365-3,463-4, 295

-772952

-684-1,009-1,450-1, 153

iet(-)]

U.S.privateassets 2

-6,920-10, 060-8, 708-13, 998-32, 323-27, 523-36, 195

-3, 29710, 375

8,550-7,288-6, 824-13, 534

Forei[incr<

Total

5,92322, 44521, 12718, 51932, 43315,32633, 129

2,7085,874

5,3967,3308,247

12, 156

gn assets3ase/capit<

Foreignass

Total

6,90726, 89510, 7056,299

10, 9816,899

18, 107

-1,6062,771

3,9424, 1052, 9997,061

in the U.al inflow

officialets

Assets offoreignofficialreserveagencies

7,36227, 40510, 3225, 145

10, 2575, 166

13, 094

-1,9772, 272

2,4603,3081, 2536,073

4, 751

S., net(+)P

Otherforeignassets

-984-4,45010, 42212, 22021, 4528,427

15, 022

4,3133, 103

1,4543,2255,2485,095

Alloca-tions

ofspecial

drawingrights(SDR)

86771771C

Statidiscre

TYktal

(sum oxthe

itemswith signreversed)

-402-9,609-1,790-2, 107

4,5574,570

10, 495

— 1, 5172,258

4, 3101,9071, 1633, 120

sticalpancy

Ofwhich :

Seasonaladjust-ment

diserep-

-2,5611,275

95873

-2, 8001,773

U.S.officialreserveassets,net1

(unad-justed,end ofperiod)

14, 48712, 16713, 15114, 37815, 88316, 22618, 747

16, 29116, 226

16, 94118, 47718, 94518, 747

19, 120

* Consists of gold, special drawing rights (SDR), convertible currencies, andthe U.S. reserve position in the IMF.

2 Quarterly data are not seasonally adjusted.

Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and De-partment of the Treasury.

37


UNITED STATESGOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE

DIVISION OF PUBLIC DOCUMENTS

WASHINGTON. D.C. 2O4O2

POSTAGE AND FEES PAIDU.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFII

375

OFFICIAL BUSINESS

First-Class Mail

ContentsTOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING Page

Gross National Product 1Gross National Product in 1972 Dollars 2Implicit Price Deflators for Gross National Product 2Changes in GNP and GNP Price Measures 3Nonfinancial Corporate Business—Output, Costs, and Profits 3National Income 4Personal Consumption Expenditures 4Sources of Personal Income 5Disposition of Personal Income 6Farm Income 7Corporate Profits 8Gross Private Domestic Investment 9Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment 10

EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGESStatus of the Labor Force -. 11Selected Unemployment Rates 12Selected Measures of Unemployment and Unemployment Insurance Programs 13Nonagricultural Employment 14Average Weekly Hours and Hourly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries 15Average Weekly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries 15Productivity and Related Data, Private Business Economy 16

PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITYIndustrial Production and Capacity Utilization 17Industrial Production—Major Market Groups and Selected Manufactures 18New Construction 10New Private Housing and Vacancy Rates 11Business Sales and Inventories—Total and Trade 29Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and New Orders 29

PRICESWholesale Prices 22Consumer Prices 23Changes in Wholesale Prices 24Changes in Consumer Prices , . 24Prices Received and Paid by Farmers 25

MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETSMoney Stock 26Private Liquid Asset Holdings—Nonfinancial Investors 27Consumer Instalment Credit 27Bank Loans, Investments, and Reserves 28Sources and Uses of Funds, Nonfarm Nonfinancial Corporate Business 29Current Assets and Liabilities of Nonfinancial Corporations 29Interest Rates and Bond Yields 30Common Stock Prices and Yields 31

FEDERAL FINANCEFederal Budget Receipts and Outlays and Debt 32Federal Budget Receipts by Source and Outlays by Function 33Federal Sector, National Income Accounts Basis 34

INTERNATIONAL STATISTICSIndustrial Production and Consumer Prices—Major Industrial Countries 35U.S. Merchandise Exports and Imports 35U.S. International Transactions 36

For sale by the Superintendent oJ Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20401Price 85 cents (single copy). Subscription price: $10.10 per year; $2.55 additional

for loreign mailing.

38 U.S. G O V E R N M E N T P R I N T I N G OFFICE: It77


Economic Indicators: May 1977 - St. Louis Fed · Economic Indicators May 1977 ... s and sen Federal...

Documents

Transcript of Economic Indicators: May 1977 - St. Louis Fed · Economic Indicators May 1977 ... s and sen Federal...