Economic Indicators July 2014

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Economic Indicators

Last update 18.7.2014

| Economic Indicators | 2

Economic Outlook Monthly Overview – July 2014

Europe:

• Consensus July GDP forecast for WE remained stable on 1,5% for 2014 and on 1,8% for 2015.

• The EU industrial confidence and the consumer confidence both fell slightly in June.

• The IFO Business Climate index for Germany slightly fell again in June. The German economy

fears the potential impact of the crises in the Ukraine and Iraq.

• Following a relatively solid +0,9% y-o-y uptick in Q1 GDP growth, Q2 appears to be flagging.

May industrial reports weakened in several regions but the hope is for a bounce back in June,

although the manufacturing PMI moderated. Concern over the still fragile state of the recovery

puts additional pressure on policymakers to jumpstart activity.

US:

• Consensus July GDP forecast for the US decreased strongly again from 2,2% to 1,6% for 2014

and from 3,1% to 3,0% for 2015.

• GDP prospects have dimmed this month again after Q1 growth was downgraded to -2,9% q-o-q

from -1,0%. The poor outturn was largely due to harsh weather conditions and many economists

cite the Q1 contraction as a temporary blip. Jobless rate in June slipped from 6,3% to 6,1% but

wage growth remains muted, also contributing to a softer consumption outlook.

Japan:

• The July GDP growth forecast for Japan remained stable on 1,5% for 2014 and improved from

1,2% to 1,3% for 2015.

• The Tankan business sentiment survey slipped in Q2, a development which did not come as a

surprise, following the April consumption tax hike. Export weakness is still a concern as the

trade balance remains in deficit.

3 | Economic Indicators |

Eurostat Data


Economic Indicators – GDP EU 28

Source: Eurostat June 14

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

08

Q1

09

Q1

10

Q1

11

Q1

12

Q1

13

Q1

14

Q1

%

GDP for the EU 28 countries at constant prices quarter vs. same quarter of last year


Economic Indicators – GDP EU 28

Source: Eurostat June 14

-2,5

-2

-1,5

-1

-0,5

0

0,5

1

08

Q1

09

Q1

10

Q1

11

Q1

12

Q1

13

Q1

14

Q1

%

GDP for the EU 28 countries at constant prices quarter on quarter


Economic Indicators –EU 28 Consumer Price Index

Source: Eurostat July 14

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

3,5

4

4,5

08

/1

09

/1

10

/1

11

/1

12

/1

13

/1

14

/1

15

/1

0,7

%

The harmonized index of consumer prices is the result of the collaboration

between Eurostat and National Statistical Institutes of the Member States.


Economic Indicators – ECB interest rate

Source: ECB, FED, Eurostat Jul 14

Jun.14; 0,5

Jul.14; 0,15

Jul.14; 0,25

-0,5

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

3,0

3,5

4,0

4,5

Jan

08

Ju

ly 0

8

Jan

09

Ju

l.09

Jan

10

Ju

l.10

Jan

11

Ju

ly 1

1

Jan

12

Ju

l.12

Jan

13

Ju

l.13

Jan

14

Ju

l.14

Jan

15

%

ECB short-term rate

Eurozone inflation

FED rate


Economic Indicators –EU 28 Unemployment Rate

Source: Eurostat Jul 14

10,3

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

Ja

n 0

8

Ja

n 0

9

Ja

n 1

0

Ja

n 1

1

Ja

n 1

2

Ja

n 1

3

Ja

n 1

4

Ja

n 1

5

%

Unemployment rate for EU 28 countries


Economic Indicators – Industrial Confidence Ind EU


-40

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10Jan

08

Jan

09

Jan

10

Jan

11

Jan

12

Jan

13

Jan

14

Jan

15

Industrial confidence within EU 28 decreased slightly in June, but the industry

remains in a fairly positive mood.

The Industrial Confidence Indicator is the arithmetic average of the answers to the

questions on production expectations, order books and stocks.


Economic Indicators – Consumer Confidence Ind EU


Consumer Confidence within EU 28 deteriorated very slightly in June but remains

on a fairly good level.

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

Jan

08

Jan

09

Jan

10

Jan

11

Jan

12

Jan

13

Jan

14

Jan

15

The Consumer Confidence Indicator is the arithmetic average of the answers to the questions

on the financial situation of households and general economic situation (past and future)

together with that on the advisability of making major purchases.


Economic Indicators – Capacity Utilization

in Manufacturing Industry in % - EU 27

Source: Eurostat May 14

60

65

70

75

80

85

04

Q1

05

Q1

06

Q1

07

Q1

08

Q1

09

Q1

10

Q1

11

Q1

12

Q1

13

Q1

14

Q1

79,5

%

The capacity utilization in manufacturing industry gives the level of capacity utilization

in percent, as assessed by managers in manufacturing industry.


Ifo Data


Economic Indicators – IFO World Economic Climate

Source: IFO May 14

The Ifo World Economic climate clouded slightly regarding expectations in Q2 2014

but remains friendly overall.

This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.


Economic Indicators – IFO European Economic Climate

Source: IFO May 14

The economic climate in Europe continued its positive path in Q2 2014.



Economic Indicators – IFO NA Economic Climate

Source: IFO May 14



Economic Indicators – IFO Asia Economic Climate

Source: IFO May 14


The economic climate in Asia slowed down quite significantly in Q2 2014.


Economic Indicators – GDP Forecast Euro Area

Source: IFO July 14


Economic Indicators – GDP Forecast Germany

Source: IFO July 14


Economic Indicators – Exchange rate $ vs €

Source: IFO July 14


Economic Indicators –

Ifo business situation and 6 month expectations

Source: IFO Jul 14

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

Jan

08

Jan

09

Jan

10

Jan

11

Jan

12

Jan

13

Jan

14

Jan

15

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

Jan

08

Jan

09

Jan

10

Jan

11

Jan

12

Jan

13

Jan

14

Jan

15

Business situation 6 months expectations

The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business situation index shows the current evaluation of the

economic situation, while the 6 month expectations index shows the expectations of the companies for the next

6 months. Over 7000 companies are being interviewed.

The Ifo Business Climate Index for Germany slightly fell in June. Assessments of the current

business situation remained good, but companies were less optimistic about future business

developments. The German economy fears the potential impact of the crises in the Ukraine

and Iraq.


Economic Indicators – IFO Assessment of Current

Business Situation

Source: IFO Jul 14

The Ifo Business Climate Index for Germany slightly fell in May. Assessments of the current

business situation were no longer as favorable as in April and companies were also less

optimistic about future business developments. A lull was seen in the German economy in

May.


Economic Indicators – IFO business climate index

printing industry

Source: IFO Jul 14, bundesverband druck und medien

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

Jan

08

Jan

09

Ja

n 1

0

Jan

11

Jan

12

Jan

13

Jan

14

Jan

15

The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business climate index for the printing industry is

based on a monthly representative questionnaire to 300 German printers.

The business climate within the printing industry improved slightly from -3 to -1 in June.


Economic Indicators – IFO business climate index

printing industry

The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business climate index for the printing industry is

based on a monthly representative questionnaire to 300 German printers.

Business Development at German Printers – June 2014:

The assessment of the current business situation in the printing

industry again deteriorated in June but still remained on a better level

than in spring and summer of the previous year.

The business climate – an indicator for the development in

the next quarter – improved slightly from -3% to -1% in June.

The business expectations for the coming 6 months improved

considerably and reached the second best value of the last 12 months.

Source: IFO Jul 14, bundesverband druck und medien


Zenith Data


Global Advertising Growth – Zenith 4/14 Press Release

Source: ZenithOptimedia 4/14


Regional Advertising Development –

Zenith 4/14 Press Release



Global Advertising Market – Zenith 4/14 Press Release



Advertising by medium – Zenith 4/14 Press Release


Economic Indicators July 2014

Marketing

Transcript of Economic Indicators July 2014