Economic Indicators August 2013

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Economic Indicators

Last update 20.08.2013

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Economic Outlook Monthly Overview – August 2013

Europe:

• Consensus August GDP forecast for WE improved from -0,2% to -0,1% for 2013 and remained

on 1,1% for 2014.

• Both, the EU industrial confidence and the consumer confidence indicator improved in July.

• The IFO Business Climate index for Germany rose for the third time in succession in July.

Assessments of the current business situation are more positive than last month, and although

the six-month business outlook weakened slightly, firms remain cautiously optimistic.

• Q2 GDP finally advanced following six consecutive quarters of decline, rising by 0,3% q-o-q

after a fall in the same size in Q1. July’s composite PMI finally broke into expansionary territory,

as did the manufacturing PMI, underscoring a cautious recovery. Thus the Euro area outlook

could be turning more upbeat – however, the periphery remains in deep retrenchment.

US:

• Consensus August GDP forecast for the US decreased from 1,8% to 1,5% for 2013 and from

2,7% to 2,6% for 2014.

• The advance Q2 national accounts showed heavy revisions to the historical data, including

2012 GDP which is now estimated to have expanded by 2,8% instead of 2,2% previously. GDP

figure now includes more of the ‘knowledge economy’ including intellectual property and R&D.

This revision also contributed to this month’s downgrade of the 2013 GDP forecast.

Japan:

• The August GDP growth forecast for Japan remained on 1,9% for 2013 and on 1,5% for 2014.

• June industrial production dipped for the first time in five months, while the manufacturing

purchasing manager’s index for July eased to a four-month low. On the other side the

unemployment rate fell below 4% for the first time since 2008.

3 | Economic Indicators |

Eurostat Data


Economic Indicators – GDP EU 27

Source: Eurostat Aug 13

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

'07

Q1

'08

Q1

'09

Q1

'10

Q1

'11

Q1

12

Q1

13

Q1

%

GDP for the EU 27 countries at constant prices quarter vs. same quarter of last year


Economic Indicators – GDP EU 27


-2,5

-2

-1,5

-1

-0,5

0

0,5

1

'07Q

1

'08

Q1

'09

Q1

'10

Q1

'11

Q1

12

Q1

13

Q1

%

GDP for the EU 27 countries at constant prices quarter on quarter


Economic Indicators –EU 27 Consumer Price Index


0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

3,5

4

4,5

08

/1

09

/1

10

/1

11

/1

12

/1

13

/1

1,7 %

The harmonized index of consumer prices is the result of the collaboration

between Eurostat and National Statistical Institutes of the Member States.


Economic Indicators – ECB interest rate

Source: ECB, FED Aug 13

Jul.13; 1,6

Aug.13; 0,5

Aug.13; 0,25

-0,5

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

3,0

3,5

4,0

4,5

Jan

08

Ju

ly 0

8

Jan

09

Ju

l.09

Jan

10

Ju

l.10

Jan

11

Ju

ly 1

1

Jan

12

Ju

l.12

Jan

13

Ju

l.13

%

ECB short-term rate

Eurozone inflation

FED rate


Economic Indicators –EU 27 Unemployment Rate


10,9

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

Ja

n 0

8

Ja

n 0

9

Ja

n 1

0

Ja

n 1

1

Ja

n 1

2

Ja

n 1

3

%

Unemployment rate for EU 27 countries


Economic Indicators – Industrial Confidence Ind EU


-40

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10Jan

06

Jan

07

Jan

08

Jan

09

Jan

10

Jan

11

Jan

12

Jan

13

Jan

14

Industrial confidence within EU 27 improved slightly again in July.

The Industrial Confidence Indicator is the arithmetic average of the answers to the

questions on production expectations, order books and stocks.


Economic Indicators – Consumer Confidence Ind EU


Consumer Confidence within EU 27 improved considerably in July.

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

Jan

06

Jan

07

Jan

08

Jan

09

Jan

10

Jan

11

Jan

12

Jan

13

Jan

14

The Consumer Confidence Indicator is the arithmetic average of the answers to the questions

on the financial situation of households and general economic situation (past and future)

together with that on the advisability of making major purchases.


Economic Indicators – Capacity Utilization

in Manufacturing Industry in % - EU 27


60

65

70

75

80

85

04

Q1

05

Q1

06

Q1

07

Q1

08

Q1

09

Q1

10

Q1

11

Q1

12

Q1

13

Q1

78,9

%

The capacity utilization in manufacturing industry gives the level of capacity utilization

in percent, as assessed by managers in manufacturing industry.


Ifo Data


Economic Indicators – IFO World Economic Climate

Source: IFO Aug 13

The Ifo World Economic climate fell slightly in Q3 2013

This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.


Economic Indicators – IFO European Economic Climate

Source: IFO Aug 13

The economic climate for Europe brightened slightly in Q3 2013.



Economic Indicators – IFO NA Economic Climate

Source: IFO Aug 13



Economic Indicators – GDP Forecast Euro Area

Source: IFO June 13


Economic Indicators – GDP Forecast Germany

Source: IFO June 13


Economic Indicators – Exchange rate $ vs €

Source: IFO June 13


Economic Indicators –

Ifo business situation and 6 month expectations

Source: IFO Aug 13

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

Jan

08

Jan

09

Jan

10

Jan

11

Jan

12

Jan

13

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

Jan

08

Jan

09

Jan

10

Jan

11

Jan

12

Jan

13

Business situation 6 months expectations

The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business situation index shows the current evaluation of the

economic situation, while the 6 month expectations index shows the expectations of the companies for the next

6 months. Over 7000 companies are being interviewed.

The Ifo Business Climate Index for Germany rose for the third time in succession.

Assessments of the current business situation are more positive than last month and although

the six-month business outlook weakened slightly, firms remain cautiously optimistic with

regard to their future business outlook. Conditions in the German economy remain fair.


Economic Indicators – IFO Assessment of Current

Business Situation

Source: IFO Aug 13

The Ifo Business Climate Index for Germany rose for the third time in succession.

Assessments of the current business situation are more positive than last month and although

the six-month business outlook weakened slightly, firms remain cautiously optimistic with

regard to their future business outlook. Conditions in the German economy remain fair.


Economic Indicators – IFO business climate index

printing industry

Source: IFO July 13, bundesverband druck und medien

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

Jan

08

Jan

09

Jan

10

Jan

11

Jan

12

Jan

13

Jan

14

The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business climate index for the printing industry is

based on a monthly representative questionnaire to 300 German printers.

The business climate within the printing industry improved significantly to -3 in June.


Economic Indicators – IFO business climate index

printing industry

The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business climate index for the printing industry is

based on a monthly representative questionnaire to 300 German printers.

Business Development at German Printers – June 2013:

The assessment of the current business situation in the printing

industry deteriorated again from last month to now -14% compared to

-5% in the same month of last year.

The business climate – an indicator for the development in

the next quarter – improved due to better expectations to -3%.

The business expectations for the coming 6 months improved surprisingly

strong by 34%points to now +9%. In the same month of last year

expectations were also positive but 6%points worse than now.

Source: IFO Jul 13, bundesverband druck und medien


Zenith Data


Advertising Growth – Zenith 6/13 Press release

Source: Zenith 6/13

Executive summary: Advertising Expenditure Forecast June 2013

• Global ad expenditure to grow 3,5% in 2013, down from 3,9% forecast in Q1

due to continuing recession in the Eurozone and security concerns in South Korea.

5,1% are being forecast for 2014 and 5,8% for 2015.

• Growth will be led by the Rising markets (av. growth of 8,6% per year)

while Mature markets will grow at an average of 2,8%.

• US remains biggest contributor of new ad dollars to the global ad market followed

by China, Argentina, Indonesia and Russia

• Internet is still the fastest growing medium by some distance, mobile advertising

has now truly taken off and is growing five times faster than desktop internet.

• Advertising in printed newspapers and magazines will continue to shrink at an

average of 2-3% a year.



Source: ZenithOptimedia 6/13

Economic Indicators August 2013

Technology

Transcript of Economic Indicators August 2013