Economic Impacts of the U.S. EB-5 Immigration Program€¦ · Economic Impacts of the U.S. EB-5...
Transcript of Economic Impacts of the U.S. EB-5 Immigration Program€¦ · Economic Impacts of the U.S. EB-5...
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Economic Impacts of the U.S. EB-5 Immigration Program(2010-2012) Charlotte Economics Club
Charlotte, NCFebruary 18, 2015
David Kay, Regional Economist
Alward Institute for Collaborative Science
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Introduction• Alward Institute for Collaborative Science 501(c)(3) non-profit with a mission to undertake
cooperative big data analysis and teaching focused on problems in regional economics.
Spin-off of IMPLAN Group Research & Development
Through donations, grants, and research contracts we seek to work the IMPLAN database into customized applications that meet the needs of business, government, and academia.
• IMPLAN Group LLCMakers of the IMPLAN system of software and data.
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Presentation Outline• Introduction• Direct Investment• Direct Household Spending• Direct estimate of other immigration expenses
Flights Moving Service Automobiles Investment & Legal Services Government Fees
• Economic Model• Impact Results• Discussion and Conclusion
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Introduction• EB-5 Regional Center Program Immigration program that allows targeted investment in
exchange for permanent residency
29,000 visas | $6.8 bn investment | 50,000 U.S jobs.
• Targeted Investment High unemployment or rural area
Supports 10 full-time jobs
$500,000 minimum
Over 600 Regional Centers throughout the country to help immigrants make “targeted” investment
Regional Centers represented by Invest In the USA (IIUSA)
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Introduction• EB5 investors catalyze larger investment pools:
EB5 investor credited with job impact from entire pool.
Data only available for EB5 investor’s portion.
Payout: 2Risk: 0.5
Payout: 1Risk: 0.2
Payout: 3Risk: 0.2
Payout: 4Risk: 0.3 Investment Bank
DeveloperTax CreditsEB5 Investor
Hypothetical Investment Pool
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Introduction• Meet the Dekker familyDutch citizens participating in
EB-5 program
2000: Received E-2 visas and moved to Michigan to run a dairy farm
2011: Invested $500,000 in Washington DC hotel
2012: Received preliminary approval (2-yr residency)
Photo courtesy of Washington Post
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Introduction7
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Motivation• USCIS study (2010) estimated the following
annual impacts for the program:
2,000 U.S. jobs
$117 million in GDP
$17 million in federal tax revenue
$10 million in state and local tax revenue
• Limitations
Only considered investment impacts at a national level.
Based on a small sample for 2001-2006.
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Motivation• IIUSA commissioned IMPLAN to update USCIS study: Using IIUSA’s complete population of investment records
Expand spending categories to include:
• Investments
• Household spending
• Other immigration expenses
Expand scope of analysis to include impacts at:
• National, State & Congressional District level
• Developed new batch processing procedure
Capture more recent growth
• FY 2010-2012
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Direct Investment
$2.4 billionCommercial Construction
34 Commercial Construction
346 Motion picture and videoindustries
126 Other basic organicchemical manufacturing
31 Electric power generation,transmission, and distribution
409 Amusement parks, arcades,and gambling industries
317 All other miscellaneousmanufacturing
• EB-5 Investment by Sector (2010-12)
Total = $3.55 billion
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Direct HH Spending• Household Spending EstimationNational Estimates:
≈ $520 million in HH spending over 3 years.
Table 3: Visa and Household Variables, 2010-2012
Approved Visa Count 1,322 2,695 6,514Average HH Size 2.96911 3.06888 3.03859Household Count 445.25 878.17 2143.76Household Spending $66,787,691 $131,725,581 $321,563,620
Variable 2010 2011 2012
Sources: Visa count from U.S. Department of State | Avg HH size from U.S. Department of Homeland Security.
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Other Direct Spending• Other Immigration Expenses: Summary
≈ $526 million in Other Expenses over 3 years.
Table 5: Estimated Expenditures for Other EB-5 Spending, 2010-2012Total expenditures on flights, moving services, automobiles, and other fees
Flight Expenditures $1,013,798 $2,114,712 $4,646,039 332 Air Transportation$15,880
$392,622
Moving Expenditures $4,048,176 $7,977,060 $23,161,701 335 Truck TransportationAutomobile Expenditures $12,956,812 $25,554,763 $62,383,342 276 Automobile Manufacturing
$82,984,000
Attorney Fees $22,262,564 $43,908,527 $180,400,000 367 Legal Services$11,512,420
Total $51,463,999 $109,516,887 $365,496,004
$9,624,475 Federal Government (NonDefense) Spending Pattern
2012
$133,826 Federal Government (NonDefense) Spending Pattern
Investment Fees$10,240,779 $20,197,922 356 Securities, commodity
contracts, investments, and related
2011 IMPLAN Sector
Airport fees from foreign airlines
$3,260 $5,603 338 Support activities for transportation
Expenditure 2010
Government taxes from foreign airlines $72,701
Government Immigration Fees
$865,910
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Leontief Multiplier MatrixMultiplier Matrix Manufacturing Construction Services
Manufacturing 1.05 0.53 0.51
Construction 0.63 1.15 0.23
Services 0.33 0.45 1.07
Total Multipliers 2.01 2.13 1.81
FinalDemand
0
1,000
0
1,000
Output
530
1,150
450
2,130
X=
∆𝑋𝑋 = 𝐼𝐼 − 𝐴𝐴 −1 ∗ ∆𝑌𝑌
MultiplierMatrix
Change inFinal Demand
Change inOutput
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Economic Impact AnalysisIn
dire
ct S
pend
ing
Round 1Ro
und
1
Roun
d 2
Round 2
Direct Spending Induced Spending
+ Direct Effect+ Indirect Effect+ Induced Effect
= Total Effect
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• Impacts of EB-5 Investments ($3.55 bn)
≈ 9.3 full & part time jobs per investor (EB-5 equity).
Results
Table 13: Economic Impact of EB-5 Investments, 2010-2012Summary of National Model (2011 dollars reported)
Federal State & LocalDirect Effect 27,078.6 $1,747,892,013 $259,113,788 $100,675,617Indirect Effect 12,596.5 $1,193,020,478 $153,046,758 $88,014,458Induced Effect 21,625.7 $1,791,556,818 $218,352,812 $178,865,812Total Effect 61,300.8 $4,732,469,308 $630,513,352 $367,555,889Multiplier 2.26 2.71 2.43 3.65
Impact Type Jobs Supported
Contribution to GDP
Tax Revenue
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Preliminary Results for Capital Stack
Actual Feasible range
≈ 27.8 full & part time jobs per investor (full capital stack).
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Results• Impacts of EB-5 Investments (cont.)
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Results• Impacts of EB-5 Investments (cont.)
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• Impacts of EB-5 Household Spending ($0.52 bn)
Over 30 years present value = $2.4 billion
Annual jobs supported = 32,000 | GDP = $2.6 billion
Results
Table 16Economic Impact of EB-5 Household Spending, 2010-2012Summary of National Model (2011 dollars reported)
Federal State & LocalDirect Effect 3,688.0 $273,902,092 $33,412,225 $30,928,577Indirect Effect 1,691.0 $157,404,950 $19,338,520 $11,795,022Induced Effect 2,321.8 $192,599,656 $23,473,258 $19,229,448Total Effect 7,700.7 $623,906,699 $76,224,001 $61,953,048Multiplier 2.09 2.28 2.28 2.00
Impact Type Jobs Supported
Contribution to GDP
Tax Revenue
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Results• Impacts of EB-5 Household Spending
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Results• Impacts of EB-5 Investments (cont.)
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Results• Impacts of Other EB-5 Spending ($0.53 bn)
Table 20: Total Economic Impact of Other EB-5 Spending, 2010-12by Spending Type (National Model)
Federal State & LocalInvestor/Legal Fees 5,353.6 $518,022,187 $65,475,049 $38,400,825Moving Expenses 1,075.4 $98,230,514 $13,055,365 $9,432,855Government Fees 727.8 $68,689,080 $9,229,223 $6,276,037Total 7,156.8 $684,941,779 $87,759,637 $54,109,719
Tax RevenueImpact Type Jobs
SupportedContribution to
GDP
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Results• Impacts of All EB-5 Spending ($4.60 bn)
Investment responsible for ≈ 80% of impacts.
Conservative estimate – including capital stack almost triples results.
Table 11: Economic Impact of All EB-5 Spending, 2010-12Summary of National Model
Federal State & LocalDirect Effect 33,520.1 $2,328,850,933 $333,611,520 $151,762,802Indirect Effect 15,787.4 $1,487,165,085 $189,668,793 $109,684,005Induced Effect 26,851.7 $2,225,386,364 $271,226,786 $222,177,564Total Effect 76,159.2 $6,041,402,382 $794,507,094 $483,624,374Multiplier 2.27 2.59 2.38 3.19
Impact Type Jobs Supported
Contribution to GDP
Tax Revenue
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Comparison and Projection• Study Comparison Larger results due to:
• More complete dataset
• More comprehensive estimate of spending categories
• Increased popularity of EB-5 program in recent years
Year Approved I-526s Approved Visas
2006 336 68
2012 3,677 6,514
Increase Factor 10.9 95.8
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Comparison and Projection• Study Comparison (cont.)AverageAnnual Impact
USCIS Study (2001-2006)
IMPLAN Study (2010-2012)
Increase Factor
Due to ↑Investment
ActivityInitialSpending
$42 million $1.533 billion 36.8 77%
JobsSupported
2,000 25,386 12.7 79%
GDP $117 million $2.013 billion 17.2 77%
Federal Tax $17 million $265 million 15.6 78%
State & LocalTax
$10 million $161 million 16.1 74%
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Comparison and Projection
Actual Predicted
Including capital stack almost triples results.
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Conclusion Program contributes substantially to U.S economy
• Impacts have increased substantially in recent years.
• EB-5 investment is a small percent of industry output (0.16%), but has played an important catalytic role during a time of slow recovery.
• Study demonstrates validity of targeted job impacts as a social goal for investment.
Method can be extended to other forms of investmento Corporate social responsibility
o Social impact bonds/tax credits
o Construction or business loans
o Export financing
o Investment funds
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Questions? Comments?David Kay, EconomistAlward Institute for Collaborative ScienceEmail: [email protected]: 801.473.4253Websites: www.AlwardInstitute.org
www.IMPLAN.com
Greg Alward, ChairmanAlward Institute for Collaborative ScienceEmail: [email protected]: 970.217.3942
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