Understanding Ocean Acidification Impacts on Organismal to ...
Economic Impacts of Ocean Acidification · 2018-04-03 · Economic impacts of coral reef...
Transcript of Economic Impacts of Ocean Acidification · 2018-04-03 · Economic impacts of coral reef...
Economic impacts of coral reef degradation caused by climate change and ocean acidification
Dr. Luke Brander
• Institute for Environmental Studies, VU University Amsterdam
• Division of Environment, HKUST, Hong Kong
• Email: [email protected]
International Conference on Climate Change and Coral Reef Conservation 29-30 June 2013
Outline
• Economic questions on climate change and OA
• Coral reef impacts: ecosystem services framework
• Global coral reef damages from ocean acidification
• Conclusions
Economic questions on climate change and ocean acidification
• What are the human welfare impacts of climate change (expressed in monetary terms)?
• Do the benefits of mitigation and adaptation (reduced climate change damage) outweigh the costs?
• What is the expected distribution of damages?
CC and OA Damage
Cost of Mitigation
Framework for coral reef impact assessment
• Ecosystem Services (ES) framework to link bio-physical environmental change to human welfare
• ES are the benefits that humans derive from ecosystems
• Coral reef ES:
– Fisheries
– Coastal protection
– Tourism/recreation
– Biodiversity
– Bio-prospecting
Impact pathway for coral reefs
Socio-Economic Activity
CO2 Emissions
Climate Change and Ocean Acidification
• Food webs
• Fish stocks
• Bleaching
• Storm damage
• Lower growth
•
•
Bio-physical impacts on coral reefs
• Fish Catch
• Aquaculture
• Fisheries
• Coastal protection
• Tourism
• Biodiversity
• Bio-prospecting
Ecosystem Services
• Welfare
• Distribution
• Vulnerability
• Food Security
• Adaptation
• Population
• Income
Socio-economic impacts
Coral reef degradation from OA
• Link models that describe the impact pathway for coral reefs:
• Economy-Climate (FUND)
• Ocean acidification
• Coral loss
• Visitor demand
• Ecosystem service values
• Scenario analysis 2000-2100 (SRES)
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
bil
lio
n p
eop
leA2
B1
A1
B2
Population Population
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
bil
lion p
eople
A2
B1
A1
B2
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
$/p
/yr
A1
B1
B2
A2
Population
Income Income
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
bil
lion p
eople
A2
B1
A1
B2
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
$/p
/yr
A1
B1
B2
A2
Population Income
Visitors
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
vis
ito
rs (
20
00=
1)
A1
A2
B1
B2
Visitors
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
ppm
A2
A1
B2
B1
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
bil
lion p
eople
A2
B1
A1
B2
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
$/p
/yr
A1
B1
B2
A2
Population Income Visitors
Carbon dioxide
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
vis
itors
(2000=
1)
A1
A2
B1
B2
Visitors
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
ppm
A2
A1
B2
B1
-0.45
-0.40
-0.35
-0.30
-0.25
-0.20
-0.15
-0.10
-0.05
0.00
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100ch
ang
e in
pH
B1
B2
A1
A2
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
bil
lion p
eople
A2
B1
A1
B2
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
$/p
/yr
A1
B1
B2
A2
Population Income Visitors
Carbon dioxide
Ocean Acidity
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
vis
itors
(2000=
1)
A1
A2
B1
B2
Visitors
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
ppm
A2
A1
B2
B1
-0.45
-0.40
-0.35
-0.30
-0.25
-0.20
-0.15
-0.10
-0.05
0.00
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
chan
ge
in p
H
B1
B2
A1
A2
-0.30
-0.25
-0.20
-0.15
-0.10
-0.05
0.00
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100fr
acti
on
co
ral
B1
B2
A1
A2
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
bil
lion p
eople
A2
B1
A1
B2
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
$/p
/yr
A1
B1
B2
A2
Population Income Visitors
Acidity
Carbon dioxide
Corals
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
vis
itors
(2000=
1)
A1
A2
B1
B2
Visitors
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
ppm
A2
A1
B2
B1
-0.45
-0.40
-0.35
-0.30
-0.25
-0.20
-0.15
-0.10
-0.05
0.00
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
chan
ge
in p
H
B1
B2
A1
A2
-0.30
-0.25
-0.20
-0.15
-0.10
-0.05
0.00
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
frac
tion c
ora
l
B1
B2
A1
A2
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
bil
lion p
eople
A2
B1
A1
B2
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
$/p
/yr
A1
B1
B2
A2
Population Income Visitors
Corals
Acidity
Carbon dioxide
Value
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
mln
$/k
m2
A1
B1
B2
A2
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
vis
itors
(2000=
1)
A1
A2
B1
B2
Visitors
Value
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
bil
lion d
oll
arA1
B2
A2
B1
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
ppm
A2
A1
B2
B1
-0.45
-0.40
-0.35
-0.30
-0.25
-0.20
-0.15
-0.10
-0.05
0.00
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
chan
ge
in p
H
B1
B2
A1
A2
-0.30
-0.25
-0.20
-0.15
-0.10
-0.05
0.00
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
frac
tion c
ora
l
B1
B2
A1
A2
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
mln
$/k
m2
A1
B1
B2
A2
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
bil
lion p
eople
A2
B1
A1
B2
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
$/p
/yr
A1
B1
B2
A2
Population Income Visitors Value
Corals
Acidity
Carbon dioxide
Impact
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
vis
itors
(2000=
1)
A1
A2
B1
B2
Visitors
E
c
o
l
o
g
y
E c o n o m y
0.14% of GDP 1000
800
600
200
-200
Conclusions
• This is a first attempt to put a money value on OA impacts on coral reefs
• Provides an argument for both mitigation of CO2 emissions and adaptation to likely impacts
• Impacts are likely to be highly localised depending on vulnerability (exposure + dependence + adaptive capacity)
• Need for research at local scales
Thank you Thank You