Economic Growth and Subjective Well-Being: Reassessing the Easterlin Paradox
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Transcript of Economic Growth and Subjective Well-Being: Reassessing the Easterlin Paradox
Economic Growth and Subjective Well-Being:Reassessing the Easterlin Paradox
Betsey Stevenson and Justin WolfersWharton School, University of Pennsylvania and NBER
The 2008 World Congress on NAEP Measures for Nations, May 14 2008.
Research Question: What is the relationship between income & happiness?
Stevenson & Wolfers, Economic Growth and Happiness 2
Types of comparisons “Stylized facts” Stevenson-Wolfers findings
Within country:Rich v. poor members of a society
Big effects Strong effects
Between country:Rich v. poor countries
Small effects (if any)- No effects beyond GDP≈$15k
Strong effects
National time series:Country when rich v. poor
No effects-Europe, Japan, USA
Strong effects
International panel:Countries with fast v. slow growth
No effects (largely unexamined)
Strong effects
Implications “Easterlin paradox” Happiness-income gradient ≈ 0.2-0.4
Why revisit the stylized facts? 1. Theoretical implications: Reference-dependent preferences2. Yielding important policy implications (and big policy claims)3. New data: Longer time series (1946-2008); More countries (n=132)4. Statistical inference: Absence of evidence v. evidence of absence5. What are “big” versus small effects? Focus on the magnitudes
What we won’t do: Assess causality: Happiness = β log(Income) Revisit what subjective well-being data “mean”
Measuring Subjective Well-Being
Stevenson & Wolfers, Economic Growth and Happiness 3
Subjective well-being questions Happiness: “Taking all things together, would you say you are: very happy; quite
happy; not very happy; not at all happy.” Life satisfaction: “All things considered, how satisfied are you with your life as a
whole these days?” [1=Dissatisfied – 10=Satisfied] Satisfaction ladder: “Here is a ladder representing the ‘ladder of life’. Let's
suppose the top of the ladder represents the best possible life for you, and the bottom, the worse possible life for you. On which step of the ladder do you feel you personally stand at the present time? [0-10 steps].”
Creating a cardinal measure Macro data: Two steps
1. Estimate “Gross national happinessc,t”Ordered probit: Happinessi,c,t = μc,t * I(country)*I(year) + ε ε~N(0,1)
2. Regress GNH on GDP: μc,t = β log(Incomec,t ) + ν
Micro data: Ordered probit: Happinessi,c,t = β log(Incomeindividual country or period ) + ε ε~N(0,1)
Outline: Assessing the Happiness-Income link
Stevenson & Wolfers, Economic Growth and Happiness 4
Within-country comparisons USA All countries
Between countries: Through time Multiple datasets For both happiness and life satisfaction No evidence of satiation
National Time Series Japan Europe USA
Within-Country Comparisons
Stevenson & Wolfers, Economic Growth and Happiness 5
Family income Very happy Pretty happy Not too happy
<$12,500 (bottom 10%) 21% 53% 26%
$12,500-$49,999 25% 61% 13%
$50,000-$149,999 40% 54% 6%
$150,000 (top 10%) 53% 45% 2%
Source: U.S. General Social Survey, 2006
“Taken all together, how would you say things are these days?”
“When we plot average happiness versus income for clusters of people in a given country at a given time, we see that rich people are in fact much happier than poor people. It’s actually an astonishingly large difference. There’s no one single change you can imagine that would make your life improve on the happiness scale as much as to move from the bottom 5 percent on the income scale to the top 5 percent.”
- Robert Frank (2005)
Within-Country: USA
Stevenson & Wolfers, Economic Growth and Happiness 6
B
T
T
B
B
TT
B
T
B
B
T
T
B
T
B
B
TT
B
B
TT
B
T
B
T
B
TB
B
T T
B
T
B
T
B
T
B
T
B
T
B
T
B
B
T
T
-1
-.75
-.5
-.25
0
.25
.5
.75
1
Hap
pine
ss: O
rder
ed p
robi
t ind
exE
stim
ated
for
eac
h in
com
e ca
tego
ry*y
ear
500 1000 2000 4000 8000 16000 32000 64000 128000 256000Real Family Income ($2005, log scale)
Happiness = -2.224 + 0.210*log family income [se=0.007]
Incomes are midpoints of income categories.Points labelled T and B have imputed incomes, due to top- or bottom-coding, respectively.Dot size is proportional to population in that income category
Each point aggregates happiness in a GSS income category in a year
Cross-sectional Happiness-Income Relationship in the GSS
Histogram: Within-Country Estimates
Stevenson & Wolfers, Economic Growth and Happiness 7
Outline: Assessing the Happiness-Income link
Stevenson & Wolfers, Economic Growth and Happiness 8
Within-country comparisons USA All countries
Between countries: Through time Multiple datasets Both happiness and life satisfaction No evidence of satiation
National Time Series Japan Europe USA
βwithin ≈ 0.2 – 0.4
“the happiness differences between rich and poor countries that one might expect on the basis of the within country differences by economic status are not borne out by the international data.” – Easterlin, (1974)
Early Cross-National Studies
Stevenson & Wolfers, Economic Growth and Happiness 9
CANCANCAN
FRAFRAFRA
GBRGBRGBRUSAUSAUSA
-1.5
-1
-.5
0
.5
1
1.5H
appi
ness
500 10002000400080001600032000
y = -12.62+1.44*ln(x) [se=0.40]Correlation=0.931
Gallup1946
AUSAUSAUS
DEUDEUDEU
FRAFRAFRA
GBRGBRGBR
ITAITAITAMEXMEXMEX
NLDNLDNLD
NORNORNOR
USAUSAUSA
Sat
isfa
ctio
n500 1000 2000 4000 8000 1600032000
y = -5.05+0.60*ln(x) [se=0.28]Correlation=0.623
Tension Study1948
AUSAUSAUS
CANCANCAN
FRAFRAFRA
GBRGBRGBRNLDNLDNLD
NORNORNOR
USAUSAUSA
Hap
pine
ss
500 1000 2000 4000 8000 1600032000
y = -11.42+1.30*ln(x) [se=0.73]Correlation=0.622
Gallup1949
BRABRABRABRABRABRABRABRABRABRABRA
CUBCUBCUBCUBCUBCUBCUBCUBCUBCUBCUB
DEUDEUDEUDEUDEUDEUDEUDEUDEUDEUDEU
DOMDOMDOMDOMDOMDOMDOMDOMDOMDOMDOM
EGYEGYEGYEGYEGYEGYEGYEGYEGYEGYEGY
INDINDINDINDINDINDINDINDINDINDIND
ISRISRISRISRISRISRISRISRISRISRISRJPNJPNJPNJPNJPNJPNJPNJPNJPNJPNJPNNGANGANGANGANGANGANGANGANGANGANGA PANPANPANPANPANPANPANPANPANPANPAN
PHLPHLPHLPHLPHLPHLPHLPHLPHLPHLPHL POLPOLPOLPOLPOLPOLPOLPOLPOLPOLPOL
USAUSAUSAUSAUSAUSAUSAUSAUSAUSAUSA
YUGYUGYUGYUGYUGYUGYUGYUGYUGYUGYUG
-1.5
-1
-.5
0
.5
1
1.5
Sat
isfa
ctio
n L
adde
r
500 10002000400080001600032000
y = -2.82+0.36*ln(x) [se=0.19]Correlation=0.485
Patterns of HumanConcerns, 1960
FRAFRAFRA
FRGFRGFRG
GBRGBRGBR
ITAITAITA
JPNJPNJPNMYSMYSMYSPHLPHLPHLTHATHATHA
USAUSAUSA
Hap
pine
ss
500 1000 2000 4000 8000 1600032000
y = -1.79+0.21*ln(x) [se=0.18]Correlation=0.413
World Survey III1965
Wel
lbei
ng: O
rder
ed P
robi
t Ind
ex
Real GDP per capita at PPP (Maddison's estimates in US$, 1990) (log scale)
Early Cross-National Surveys of Subjective Wellbeing
World Values Survey: 1981-2004
Stevenson & Wolfers, Economic Growth and Happiness 10
ARG
AUSBELCAN
DEU
DNK
ESP FRA
GBRHUN
IRL ISL
ITAJPN
KOR
MLTNLDNORSWEUSA
-1.5
-1
-.5
0
.5
1
1.5
500 1000 2000 4000 8000 16000 32000
y = -4.60+0.51*ln(x) [se=0.18]Correlation=0.55
1981-84 Wave
ARGAUTBEL
BGRBLR
BRACAN
CHE
CHLCHN
CZE DEU
DNK
ESP
EST
FIN
FRAGBR
HUNIND
IRL ISLITA
JPNKORLTULVA
MEX
MLT
NGA
NLDNOR
POLPRT
ROMRUS
SVKSVN
SWE
TUR
USA
ZAF
-1.5
-1
-.5
0
.5
1
1.5
500 1000 2000 4000 8000 16000 32000
y = -1.80+0.21*ln(x) [se=0.07]Correlation=0.43
1989-93 Wave
ALB
ARG
ARM
AUS
AZE
BGD
BGRBIH
BLR
BRA
CHE
CHLCHN
COL
CZEDEU
DOMESP
EST
FINGBR
GEO
HRVHUNIND JPN
LTULVA
MDA
MEX
MKD
NGA
NORNZL
PERPHL
POL
PRI
ROMRUS
SCG
SLV
SVKSVN
SWE
TUR TWN
UKR
URYUSA
VEN
ZAF
-1.5
-1
-.5
0
.5
1
1.5
500 1000 2000 4000 8000 16000 32000
y = -3.00+0.32*ln(x) [se=0.07]Correlation=0.55
1994-99 Wave
ALB
ARGAUTBEL
BGDBGR
BIH
BLR
CANCHL
CHNCZE
DEU
DNK
DZAEGY
ESP
EST
FIN
FRAGBR
GRCHRVHUN
IDN
IND
IRL
IRN
ISL
ISRITA
JORJPNKGZ
KOR
LTU
LUX
LVA
MAR
MDA
MEX
MKD
MLT
NGA
NLD
PAK
PERPHLPOL
PRI
PRT
ROMRUS
SAU
SCG
SGP
SVK
SVNSWE
TUR
TZA
UGA
UKR
USAVEN
VNMZAF
ZWE
-1.5
-1
-.5
0
.5
1
1.5
500 1000 2000 4000 8000 16000 32000
y = -3.24+0.35*ln(x) [se=0.04]Correlation=0.71
1999-2004 Wave
Lif
e S
at. I
ndex
(or
dere
d pr
obit
)
Real GDP per Capita, PPP (log scale)Dashed line shows linear regression; dotted line shows lowess fit.Source: World Values Survey.
Life Satisfaction and Real GDP per Capita
Pew Global Attitudes Survey, 2002
Stevenson & Wolfers, Economic Growth and Happiness 11
AGO
ARG
BGD
BGR
BOL
BRA
CAN
CHNCIV
CZEDEUEGY
FRAGBR
GHA
GTM
HND
IDN
IND
ITA
JOR
JPN
KEN
KOR
LBN
MEX
MLI
NGA
PAK
PERPHL POL
RUS
SEN SVK
TUR
TZAUGA
UKR
USA
UZB
VENVNM
ZAF
-1.5
-1
-.5
0
.5
1
1.5
Bes
t Pos
sibl
e L
ife
Lad
der:
Ord
ered
Pro
bit I
ndex
500 1000 2000 4000 8000 16000 32000GDP per capita, PPP (2000 US $)
y = -1.90+0.22*ln(x) [se=0.05]Correlation=0.546
Dashed line shows linear regression; dotted line shows lowess fit.Source: Pew Global Attitudes Survey, 2002
Satisfaction and Real GDP per Capita
Between: Gallup World Poll
Stevenson & Wolfers, Economic Growth and Happiness 12
Comparing within- and between-country estimates
Stevenson & Wolfers, Economic Growth and Happiness 13
Outline: Assessing the Happiness-Income link
Stevenson & Wolfers, Economic Growth and Happiness 14
Within-country comparisons USA All countries
Between countries: Through time Multiple datasets Both happiness and life satisfaction No evidence of satiation
National Time Series Japan Europe USA
βwithin ≈ 0.2 – 0.4
βbetween ≈ 0.2 – 0.4
“income growth in a society does not increase happiness”. - Easterlin (1995)
Time Series: No rise in happiness, despite growth
Stevenson & Wolfers, Economic Growth and Happiness 15
Japan Europe U.S.A.
Life in Nation Surveys Eurobarometer General Social Survey
Japan: Well-Being versus GDP
Stevenson & Wolfers, Economic Growth and Happiness 16
1958(2)
1959(1)
1960(1)1961(1)
1962(1)
1963(1)
1964(1)1965(1)
1966(1)
1967(2)
1968(1)1969(1)
1970(1)
1971(1)
1972(1)
1973(1)
1974(1)
1974(11)
1975(5)
1975(11)
1976(5)
1976(11)
1977(5)
1978(5)
1979(5)
1980(5)1981(5)
1982(5)1983(5)1984(5)
1985(5)
1986(5)
1987(5)1988(5)
1989(5)
1990(5)1991(5)
1992(5)1993(5)
1994(5)
1995(5)
1996(7)
1997(5)
1999(12)
2001(9)2002(6)
2003(6)
2004(6)2005(6)
2006(10)
2007(7)
How do you feel aboutyour circumstances at home:-Satisfied-Not satisfied, not dissatisfied-Somewhat dissatisfied-Extremely dissatisfied
How do you feel aboutyour life at home:-Completely satisfied-Satisfied-Somewhat dissatisfied-Completely dissatisfied
How do you feel aboutyour life now:-Completely satisfied-Satisfied-Somewhat dissatisfied-Completely dissatisfied
Overall, to whatdegree are yousatisfied withyour life now:-Satisfied-Somewhat satisfied-Somewhat dissatisfied-Dissatisfied
Slope=0.19[se=0.13]
Slope=0.16[se=0.08]
Slope=0.18[se=0.07]
Slope=-1.14[se=0.51]-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
Wel
l-be
ing:
Ord
ered
Pro
bit I
ndex
2000 4000 8000 16000 32000Real Japanese GDP per Capita, PPP (log scale); 2000 US$
Source: Life-in-nation surveys, 1958-2007.
Pattern of responses from four different questionsEvolution of Subjective Well-Being and GDP in Japan
Japan: Economic Conditions and Well-Being
Stevenson & Wolfers, Economic Growth and Happiness 18
10.5%10.5%
12.8%12.8%
4.1%4.1%.9%
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
Une
mpl
oym
ent R
ate
(%)
$.5k
$1k
$2k
$4k
$8k
$16k
$32k
Rea
l Jap
anes
e G
DP
per
cap
ita
PP
P (
Log
sca
le)
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Real GDP per capita GDP trend Unemployment rate (right axis)
Economic Conditions
Raw series,with breaks
-.5
-.25
0
.25
.5
.75
1
-.5
-.25
0
.25
.5
.75
1
Sub
ject
ive
Wel
l-B
eing
: Ord
ered
Pro
bit I
ndex
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Adjusting for series breaks Adjusting for series breaks & unemployment
Subjective Well-Being
Japan: 1958-2007
Satisfactiont = 0.24*log(GDPt) – 0.06*Unemp -0.39*Break 1 – 0.57*Break 2 – 0.52*Break 3 n=51 (se) (0.06) (0.02) (0.07) (0.11) (0.14)
European happiness trends
Stevenson & Wolfers, Economic Growth and Happiness 19
-0.20
-0.10
0.00
0.10
0.20
Lif
e S
atis
fact
ion:
Ord
ered
pro
bit i
ndex
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Life satisfaction Trend: Growth of 0.005 per year [se=0.001]
Happiness Trend: Growth of 0.010 per year [se=0.007]
Source: Eurobarometer, 1973-2007.
Year fixed effects, from an ordered probit regression ofwell-being on country and year fixed effects
Trend in European Well-Being
International Panel Data
Stevenson & Wolfers, Economic Growth and Happiness 20
WVSLife Satisfaction
WVSHappiness
EurobarometerLife satisfaction
Levels 0.34***
(0.04)0.34***
(0.04)0.77*** (0.18)
Country fixed effects 0.15*
(0.08)0.15
(0.11)0.19***
(0.06)
Country and wave fixed effects
0.27**
(0.11)0.25
(0.15)0.20**
(0.90)
Sample period 1981-2004(4 waves)
1981-2004(4 waves)
1973-2007(biannual)
Countries 82 82 32 (mostly rich)
n 183 183 759
Robust SE clustered by Country-wave Country-wave Country
Eurobarometer: Nine countries
Stevenson & Wolfers, Economic Growth and Happiness 21
-.5
-.25
0.2
5.5
$8k $16k $32k
y = 3.84 + -0.38 * log(GDP) [se=0.18]Correlation = -0.36
Belgium
-.5
-.25
0.2
5.5
$8k $16k $32k
y = -6.20 + 0.62 * log(GDP) [se=0.08]Correlation = 0.74
Denmark
-.5
-.25
0.2
5.5
$8k $16k $32k
y = 0.56 + -0.06 * log(GDP) [se=0.14]Correlation = -0.05
Greece-.
5-.
250
.25
.5
$8k $16k $32k
y = -4.51 + 0.45 * log(GDP) [se=0.09]Correlation = 0.64
France
-.5
-.25
0.2
5.5
$8k $16k $32k
y = -0.55 + 0.06 * log(GDP) [se=0.06]Correlation = 0.14
Ireland
-.5
-.25
0.2
5.5
$8k $16k $32k
y = -7.10 + 0.71 * log(GDP) [se=0.10]Correlation = 0.76
Italy
-.5
-.25
0.2
5.5
$8k $16k $32k
y = -2.47 + 0.25 * log(GDP) [se=0.09]Correlation = 0.38
Netherlands
-.5
-.25
0.2
5.5
$8k $16k $32k
y = -1.35 + 0.14 * log(GDP) [se=0.04]Correlation = 0.39
United Kingdom
-.5
-.25
0.2
5.5
$8k $16k $32k
y = -0.50 + 0.05 * log(GDP) [se=0.12]Correlation = 0.07
West Germany
Lif
e S
atis
fact
ion:
Ord
ered
pro
bit i
ndex
Dev
iati
on f
rom
cou
ntry
ave
rage
Real GDP per capita, PPP (2000 $ US; Log scale)Source: Eurobarometer, 1973-2007. Solid dots=1973-89; Hollow dots=1990-2007.
Growth in Life Satisfaction and GDP in Europe
USA: Is it surprising that happiness hasn’t grown?
Stevenson & Wolfers, Economic Growth and Happiness 22
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
Hap
pine
ss:
Ord
ered
Pro
bit I
ndex
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Average Happiness
Averagehousehold
income [CPS]
GDP percapita
Averagehousehold
income [GSS]-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
Cha
nge
sinc
e 19
72 in
log(
aver
age
inco
me)
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Measures of Log(Average Income)
Averagelog(householdincome) [CPS]Average
log(householdincome) [GSS]-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
Cha
nge
sinc
e 19
72 in
aver
age
log(
inco
me)
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Measures of Average Log(Income)
Income and Happiness Trends in the U.S.
Happinesst = 0.048 * Average log household income in GSSt [95% ci: -0.25 - +0.34]Happinesst = 0.058 * Average log household income in CPSt [95% ci: -0.21 – 0.33]
Conclusion: Stylized facts about Wellbeing and Income
Stevenson & Wolfers, Economic Growth and Happiness 23
Within-country comparisons USA All countries
Between countries: Through time Multiple datasets Both happiness and life satisfaction No evidence of satiation
National Time Series USA Japan Europe
βwithin ≈ 0.2 – 0.4
βbetween ≈ 0.2 – 0.4
βtime series ≈ 0.2 – 0.4
Stevenson & Wolfers, Economic Growth and Happiness 24
Blank slide: End of talk
Spare Slides
Stevenson & Wolfers, Economic Growth and Happiness 25
Background Within-country Between-country National time series International panel data Broader measures of subjective well-being
Yesterday’s Experiences
Stevenson & Wolfers, Economic Growth and Happiness 26
Recalled feelings and GDP
Stevenson & Wolfers, Economic Growth and Happiness 27
Bradburn: Recent Feelings and GDP
Stevenson & Wolfers, Economic Growth and Happiness 28
ARG
AUT
BELBEL
BGR
BRA
CANCAN
CHE
CHL
CHN CZE
DEUDEUDNKDNK
ESPESP
EST
FIN
FRAFRA
GBR
GBR
HUN
IND
IRLIRL
ISLISL
ITAITA
JPN
LTULVAMEX
MLT
MLT
NGA NLDNLD
NORNOR
POLPRT
ROM
RUS
SVK
SVN
SWESWE
USAUSA
ZAF
0
.2
.4
.6
.8
1
500 2000 8000 32000
Correlation = 0.28y=0.198+0.053*ln(x) [se=0.025]
Pleased about having accomplished something
ARG
AUT
BEL
BEL
BGR
BRA
CANCAN
CHE
CHL
CHN
CZE
DEUDEU
DNK
DNK
ESPESP
EST
FIN
FRA
FRA
GBR
GBR
HUN
IND
IRLIRL
ISL
ISL
ITAITA
JPNLTU
LVA
MEX
MLT
MLT
NGANLD
NLD
NOR
NOR
POLPRT
ROM
RUSSVK
SVNSWE
SWE
USAUSA
ZAF
0
.2
.4
.6
.8
1
500 2000 8000 32000
Correlation = 0.19y=0.015+0.041*ln(x) [se=0.029]
Proud b/c someone complimented you on something you had done
ARG
AUTBEL
BELBGR
BRA CAN
CAN
CHE
CHL
CHN
CZEDEU
DEU
DNKDNK
ESP
ESP
ESTFIN
FRA
FRAGBR
GBR
HUN
IND
IRL
IRLISLISL
ITA
ITA
JPN
LTULVA
MEX
MLT
MLT
NGA
NLD
NLD
NORNOR
POL
PRTROMRUS
SVK
SVNSWE
SWEUSAUSAZAF
0
.2
.4
.6
.8
1
500 2000 8000 32000
Correlation = -0.10y=0.678+-0.015*ln(x) [se=0.021]
Particularly excited or interested in something
ARG AUTBELBEL
BGR
BRA
CANCAN
CHE
CHL
CHN
CZE
DEUDEU
DNKDNK
ESPESPEST
FINFRA
FRA
GBRGBR
HUN
IND
IRLIRL
ISLISL
ITA
ITA
JPNLTU
LVA
MEX
MLT
MLT
NGA
NLDNLD
NORNOR
POL
PRT
ROMRUS
SVK
SVN
SWE
SWE
USAUSA
ZAF
0
.2
.4
.6
.8
1
500 2000 8000 32000
Correlation = 0.18y=-0.042+0.043*ln(x) [se=0.033]
On top of the world/ feeling that life is wonderful
ARG
AUTBEL
BELBGR
BRA
CANCAN
CHE
CHLCHN
CZE
DEU
DEU
DNKDNKESPESPEST
FINFRA
FRA
GBRGBR
HUNIND
IRL
IRL
ISLISL
ITAITA
JPN
LTU
LVA
MEX
MLT
MLT
NGA
NLDNLD
NORNOR
POL
PRTROM
RUS
SVK
SVN
SWESWE
USAUSA
ZAF
0
.2
.4
.6
.8
1
500 2000 8000 32000
Correlation = 0.12y=0.234+0.028*ln(x) [se=0.031]
That things were going your way
ARG
AUTBELBEL
BGR
BRA
CANCAN
CHE
CHLCHN
CZE
DEUDEU
DNKDNK
ESPESP
EST
FIN
FRAFRA
GBRGBR
HUN
INDIRLIRL
ISL
ISL
ITA
ITAJPN
LTU
LVAMEX
MLTMLT
NGA
NLDNLD
NOR
NORPOL
PRT
ROMRUS
SVKSVNSWESWE
USAUSAZAF
0
.2
.4
.6
.8
1
500 2000 8000 32000
Correlation = -0.38y=0.689+-0.047*ln(x) [se=0.016]
Bored
ARGAUT
BELBEL
BRA
CANCAN
CHE
CHL
CHN
CZEDEUDEUDNKDNK
ESPESP
EST
FINFRAFRA
GBRGBRHUNIND
IRLIRLISLISL
ITAITA
JPN
LTU
LVAMEXMLT
MLT
NGA
NLDNLDNORNOR
POL
PRT
ROMRUSSVKSVN
SWESWE
USAUSA
ZAF
0
.2
.4
.6
.8
1
500 2000 8000 32000
Correlation = -0.25y=0.345+-0.018*ln(x) [se=0.009]
Upset because somebody criticized you
ARG
AUT
BELBEL
BGRBRA
CANCAN
CHL
CHNCZE
DEUDEU
DNK
DNKESPESP
EST
FINFRAFRA
GBRGBRHUN
IND IRLIRLISLISL
ITA
ITAJPN
LTULVA
MEXMLT
MLTNGA
NLD
NLD
NORNOR
POL
PRT
ROM
RUSSVKSVN
SWESWE
USAUSAZAF
0
.2
.4
.6
.8
1
500 2000 8000 32000
Correlation = -0.18y=0.497+-0.021*ln(x) [se=0.016]
So restless you couldn't sit long in a chair
ARG AUT
BELBELBGR
BRA
CANCAN
CHE
CHL
CHN CZE
DEUDEU
DNKDNK
ESPESPEST
FINFRA
FRAGBR
GBRHUNIND
IRLIRL
ISLISL
ITA
ITAJPNLTULVA
MEX
MLTMLT
NGA
NLD
NLD
NORNORPOLPRT
ROMRUS
SVKSVN
SWESWE
USAUSA
ZAF
0
.2
.4
.6
.8
1
500 2000 8000 32000
Correlation = -0.31y=0.458+-0.030*ln(x) [se=0.013]
Very lonely or remote from other people
ARG
AUT
BELBELBGR
BRA
CANCAN
CHE
CHL
CHN CZE
DEUDEU
DNKDNKESPESPESTFIN
FRAFRA
GBRGBRHUN
IND
IRLIRL
ISLISL
ITA
ITAJPN
LTU
LVA
MEX
MLTMLT
NGA
NLDNLDNORNOR
POL
PRT
ROMRUS
SVKSVNSWESWE
USA
USA
ZAF
0
.2
.4
.6
.8
1
500 2000 8000 32000
Correlation = -0.32y=0.558+-0.037*ln(x) [se=0.015]
Depressed or unhappy
Pro
port
ion
expe
rien
cing
eac
h fe
elin
g
Real GDP per capita, PPP (log scale)Question: 'We are interested in the way people are feeling these days. During the past few weeks, did you ever feel...'Dashed line shows regression line; dotted line is lowess fit. Source: World Values Survey, 1981-84 and 1989-93 waves.
Recent Feelings and GDP
Within-Country: Rich are Happier than Poor
Stevenson & Wolfers, Economic Growth and Happiness 29
Similar relationship holds in other countries and eras “As far as I am aware, in every representative national survey ever
done a significant bivariate relationship between happiness and income has been found.” – Easterlin (2001)
Question: “In general, how happy would you say that you are?”
%Very happy rising with income
%unhappy falling with income
Between-Country Estimates: Happiness & GNP
Stevenson & Wolfers, Economic Growth and Happiness 30
Easterlin (1974) Easterlin (1995)
Cantrill data Eurobarometer data
“What is perhaps most striking is that the personal happiness ratings for 10 of the 14 countries lie virtually within half a
point of the mid-point rating of 5.”
“A positive happiness-income relationship typically turns up in international
comparisons”
Time Series: No rise in happiness, despite growth
Stevenson & Wolfers, Economic Growth and Happiness 31
U.S.A. Japan Europe
General Social Survey Life in Nation Surveys Eurobarometer
Implications of the Easterlin Paradox
Stevenson & Wolfers, Economic Growth and Happiness 32
“Why do national comparisons among countries and over time show an association between income and happiness which is so much weaker than, if not inconsistent with, that shown by within-country comparisons?” –Easterlin (1974) Reference-dependent preferences
Relative income matters [Other people’s consumption matters]Habit formation = hedonic treadmill [Other period’s consumption]
Policy implications: Growth: “My results, along with mounting evidence from other time
series studies of subjective well-being, do on balance undermine the view that a focus on economic growth is in the best interests of society.” –Easterlin (2005)
Public finance: If preferences are interdependent Pigouvian rationale for taxing labor supply / conspicuous consumption
Subjective Well-being
Stevenson & Wolfers, Economic Growth and Happiness 33
“Subjective well-being refers to all of the various types of evaluations, both positive and negative, that people make of their lives. It includes reflective cognitive evaluations, such as life satisfaction and work satisfaction, interest and engagement, and affective reactions to life events, such as joy and sadness.” (Diener, 2005)
Typical questions: Happiness
“Taking all things together, would you say you are: very happy; quite happy; not very happy; not at all happy.”
Life satisfaction“All things considered, how satisfied are you with your life as a whole these days?” [1=Dissatisfied – 10=Satisfied]
Satisfaction ladder: “Here is a ladder representing the ‘ladder of life’. Let's suppose the top of the ladder represents the best possible life for you, and the bottom, the worse possible life for you. On which step of the ladder do you feel you personally stand at the present time? [0-10 steps].”
Alternative measures of average happiness
Stevenson & Wolfers, Economic Growth and Happiness 34
ALB
ALB
ARGARGARGARG
ARM
AUSAUSAUTAUT
AZE
BELBELBEL
BGDBGD
BGR
BGRBGR
BIHBIH
BLRBLR
BLR
BRABRA
CAN
CAN
CANCHECHE
CHLCHLCHL
CHNCHN
CHN
COL
CZECZECZEDEUDEUDEUDEU
DNKDNKDNK
DOMDZAEGYESPESPESPESP
ESTESTEST
FINFINFINFRAFRAFRAGBRGBRGBR
GEOGRC
HRVHRVHUN
HUNHUNHUN
IDNIND
INDIND
IRLIRLIRL
IRNIRQ
ISLISLISL
ISRITA
ITAITAJORJPNJPN
JPNJPNKGZ
KORKORKOR
LTULTULTU
LUX
LVALVA
LVA
MAR
MDAMDA
MEXMEX
MEX
MKDMKDMLT
MLTMLTNGA
NGA
NGANIRNIR
NIRNLDNLDNLD
NORNORNORNZL
PAKPAKPERPER
PHLPHL
POLPOLPOL
PRIPRI
PRTPRT
ROMROMROM
RUSRUSRUS
SAU
SCGSCG
SGPSLV
SVKSVKSVK
SVNSVNSVN
SWESWESWESWE
TUR
TUR
TUR
TWN
TZA
UGA
UKRUKR
URYUSAUSA
USAUSAVENVENVNM
ZAFZAFZAF
ZWE
22.
53
3.5
4S
impl
e M
ean
of 1
-4 r
espo
nse
-1.5 -1 -.5 0 .5 1 1.5
y = 3.01+0.62*x (se=0.00)Correlation=0.998
Simple Mean
ALB
ALB
ARGARGARGARG
ARM
AUSAUS
AUTAUT
AZE
BELBELBEL
BGDBGD
BGR
BGRBGR
BIHBIH
BLRBLR
BLR
BRABRA
CAN
CAN
CANCHECHE
CHLCHLCHL
CHNCHN
CHN
COL
CZECZECZEDEUDEUDEUDEU
DNKDNKDNK
DOMDZA
EGYESPESPESPESP
ESTESTEST
FINFINFINFRAFRAFRA
GBRGBRGBR
GEO
GRCHRV
HRVHUNHUN
HUNHUN
IDN
INDIND
IND
IRLIRLIRL
IRNIRQ
ISLISLISL
ISR
ITAITAITAJORJPNJPN
JPNJPN
KGZKOR
KORKOR
LTULTU
LTU
LUX
LVA
LVALVA
MAR
MDAMDA
MEXMEX
MEX
MKD
MKDMLT
MLTMLT
NGA
NGA
NGA
NIRNIRNIR
NLDNLDNLD
NORNORNORNZL
PAKPAKPERPER
PHLPHL
POL
POLPOL
PRIPRI
PRTPRT
ROMROMROM
RUSRUSRUS
SAU
SCGSCG
SGP
SLV
SVKSVKSVK
SVN
SVNSVN
SWESWESWESWE
TUR
TUR
TUR
TWN
TZA
UGA
UKRUKR
URY
USAUSA
USAUSA
VENVENVNM
ZAF
ZAFZAF
ZWE
-2-1
01
2O
rder
ed L
ogit
Ind
ex
-1.5 -1 -.5 0 .5 1 1.5
y = 0.00+1.77*x (se=0.01)Correlation=0.999
Ordered Logit
ALB
ALB
ARGARGARGARG
ARM
AUSAUSAUTAUTAZE
BELBELBELBGD
BGD
BGR
BGRBGR
BIHBIH
BLRBLR
BLR BRABRA
CAN
CAN
CANCHECHE
CHLCHLCHL
CHN
CHNCHN
COL
CZECZECZEDEUDEU
DEUDEUDNKDNKDNK
DOMDZA
EGYESPESPESPESP
ESTESTEST
FINFINFINFRAFRAFRAGBRGBRGBR
GEOGRC
HRVHRVHUN
HUNHUN
HUN
IDN
INDINDIND
IRLIRLIRL
IRNIRQ
ISLISLISL
ISRITAITAITAJORJPNJPN
JPNJPNKGZKORKORKOR
LTULTU
LTU
LUX
LVALVA
LVA
MAR
MDAMDA
MEXMEX
MEX
MKDMKD
MLT MLTMLT
NGA
NGANGANIRNIRNIRNLDNLDNLDNORNORNORNZL
PAKPAK
PERPER
PHLPHL
POLPOL
POLPRI PRI
PRTPRT
ROMROMROM
RUSRUSRUS
SAU
SCGSCG
SGP SLV
SVKSVKSVK
SVN
SVNSVN
SWESWESWESWETUR
TUR
TUR
TWN TZA
UGA
UKRUKR
URYUSAUSAUSAUSA VEN
VENVNM
ZAFZAFZAF
ZWE
0.2
.4.6
.81
Pro
port
ion
quit
e or
ver
y ha
ppy
-1.5 -1 -.5 0 .5 1 1.5
y = 0.80+0.27*x (se=0.01)Correlation=0.919
Percent Happy
ALB
ARGARGARGARG
ARM
AUSAUS
AUTAUT
AZE
BELBELBEL
BGDBGD
BGR
BGRBGR
BIHBIH
BLRBLR
BLR
BRABRA
CAN
CAN
CANCHECHE
CHLCHLCHL
CHNCHNCHN
COL
CZECZECZEDEUDEUDEUDEU
DNKDNKDNK
DOMDZA
EGYESPESPESPESP
ESTESTEST
FINFINFINFRAFRAFRA
GBRGBRGBR
GEOGRC
HRVHRVHUN
HUNHUNHUN
IDN
INDIND
IND
IRLIRLIRL
IRNIRQ
ISLISLISL
ISR
ITAITAITAJORJPNJPN
JPNJPN
KGZKOR
KORKOR
LTULTULTU
LUX
LVA
LVALVA
MAR
MDAMDA
MEXMEX
MEX
MKDMKDMLT
MLTMLTNGA
NGA
NGA
NIRNIRNIR
NLDNLDNLD
NORNORNORNZL
PAKPAKPERPER
PHLPHL
POL
POLPOL
PRIPRI
PRTPRT
ROMROMROM
RUSRUSRUS
SAU
SCGSCG
SGP
SLV
SVKSVKSVK
SVN
SVNSVN
SWESWESWESWE
TUR
TUR
TURTWN
TZA
UGA
UKRUKR
URY
USAUSA
USAUSA
VENVENVNM
ZAF
ZAFZAF
ZWE0
12
3H
eter
osce
dast
ic o
rder
ed p
robi
t ind
ex
-1.5 -1 -.5 0 .5 1 1.5
y = 1.34+1.21*x (se=0.00)Correlation=0.999
Heteroscedastic Ordered Probit
Happiness: Ordered Probit IndexDashed line shows linear regression; dotted line shows lowess fit.
World Values Survey, Waves 1-4Alternative Estimates of Average Happiness
Income-Happiness Relationship in GSS
Stevenson & Wolfers, Economic Growth and Happiness 35
B
T
B
T
T
B
T
B
T
B
T
B
T
B
T
B
B
TT
B
T
B
T
B
T
B
T
B
TBT
B
T
B
T
B
T
B
T
B
T
B
B
TT
TT
B
-1.00
-0.75
-0.50
-0.25
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
$0$4
0k$8
0k
$120
k
$160
k
$200
k
$240
k
$280
k
Linear Income Scale
B
T
B
T
T
B
T
B
T
B
T
B
T
B
T
B
B
TT
B
T
B
T
B
T
B
T
B
TBT
B
T
B
T
B
T
B
T
B
T
B
B
TT
TT
B
-1.00
-0.75
-0.50
-0.25
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
$0.5k $1
k$2
k$4
k$8
k$1
6k$3
2k$6
4k
$128
k
$256
k
Log Income Scale
Hap
pine
ss: O
rder
ed p
robi
t ind
exE
stim
ated
for
eac
h in
com
e ca
tego
ry*y
ear
Annual Family Income (Thousands of $2005)Long dash shows: Happiness = -2.2239 + 0.2097 * Log income (se=0.0068)Short dash shows: Happiness = -0.2091 + 0.0036 * Income/$1000 (se=0.0001)
Incomes are midpoints of categories. Points labelled T and B have imputed incomes, due to top- or bottom-coding, respectively.Dot size is proportional to population in that income category.
Each point aggregates happiness in a GSS income category in a yearFunctional Form of Happiness-Income Relationship in GSS
Within-Country: Rich are happier than poor
Stevenson & Wolfers, Economic Growth and Happiness 36
Each cell reports coefficient on log Household Income from a regression:Ordered Probit: Well-being = log (Household Income) + Country*wave fixed effectsβ
No controls Age*gender IV: education IV: country-specific education
Gallup World Poll, 2006Satisfaction ladder
0.310***
(0.005)0.307***
(0.005)0.645***
(0.016)0.575***
(0.014)
World Values Survey:Life Satisfaction
0.211***
(0.005)0.226***
(0.005)0.301***
(0.014)0.254***
(0.012)
World Values Survey: Happiness
0.229***
(0.005)0.220***
(0.005)0.309***
(0.015)0.263***
(0.014)
Pew Global Attitudes SurveySatisfaction ladder
0.313***
(0.008)0.317***
(0.008)n.a. n.a.
Notes: ***, ** and * denote statistically significant at 1%, 5% and 10%, respectively.(Robust standard errors in parentheses, clustered by country.)Column 1: An ordered probit regression of well-being on log household income, and country fixed-effectsColumn 2: Adds gender, a quartic in age, and their interaction as controlsColumn 3: Instruments for log household income using indicator variables for levels of education. Second stage is an ordered probit regression of well-being on the predicted values, the residuals, and country fixed-effects.Column 4: The instrument set now includes indicator variables for levels of education, interacted with country dummies.
Within-Country Variation: Gallup World Poll
Stevenson & Wolfers, Economic Growth and Happiness 37
Between-Country GDP-Wellbeing Gradient
Stevenson & Wolfers, Economic Growth and Happiness 38
Each cell reports coefficient from a regression: Well-being = log (GDP per capita)β
Macro Data: OLS Dep. Var: National Well-being
Micro Data: Ordered ProbitDep. Var: Indiv. well-being
SampleRespondents
No controls Controls (clusters)
Gallup World Poll, 2006
Please imagine a ladder/mountain with steps numbered from zero at the bottom to ten at the top. Suppose we say that the top of the ladder/mountain represents the best possible life for you and the bottom of the ladder/mountain represents the worst possible life for you. If the top step is 10 and the bottom step is 0, on which step of the ladder/mountain do you feel you personally stand at the present time?
0.418***
(0.026)0.396***
(0.023)0.422***
(0.023)139,051(131 countries)
World Values Survey: Life Sat
All things considered, how satisfied are you with your life as a whole these days? [1] Dissatisfied – [10] Satisfied
4 waves combined (with wave FE)
0.316***
(0.052)0.296***
(0.048)0.302***
(0.047)261,490(82 countries)
World Values Survey: Happiness
Taking all things together, would you say you are: [4] Very happy; [3] Quite happy; [2] Not very happy; [1] Not at all happy.
4 waves combined (with wave FE)
0.181***
(0.063)0.169***
(0.056)0.188***
(0.055)256,283(82 countries)
Pew Global Attitudes Survey
Here is a ladder representing the ‘ladder of life’. Let's suppose the top of the ladder represents the best possible life for you, and the bottom, the worse possible life for you. On which step of the ladder do you feel you personally stand at the present time? [0-10 steps].
2002 0.224***
(0.041)0.223***
(0.041)0.242***
(0.040)37,974(44 countries)
Is there any evidence of satiation?
Stevenson & Wolfers, Economic Growth and Happiness 39
Rich countries (GDP>$15,000) Happiness=1.08*log(GDP) [se=0.19]
Poor countries (GDP<$15,000) Happiness=0.35*log(GDP) [se=0.04]
A 1% rise in GDP: Has three times larger effects in rich
countries than poor countries A $100 rise in GDP
3x larger effect in Jamaica than US 20x larger effect in Burundi than US
“if we compare countries, there is no evidence that richer countries are happier than poorer ones – so long as we confine ourselves to countries with incomes over $15,000 per head.” - Layard (2005)
Satisfaction v. Happiness (WVS)
Stevenson & Wolfers, Economic Growth and Happiness 40
ALB
ARG
AUT
BEL
BGD
BGR
BIH
BLR
CAN
CHL
CHN
CZE
DEU
DNK
DZAEGY
ESP
EST
FIN
FRA
GBR
GRCHRV
HUN
IDN
IND
IRL
IRN
ISL
ISRITA
JOR
JPNKGZ
KOR
LTU
LUX
LVA
MAR
MDA
MEX
MKD
MLT
NLD
PAK
PERPHL
POL
PRI
PRT
ROM
RUS
SAU
SCG
SGP
SVK
SVN
SWE
TURUGA
UKR
USAVEN
VNM
ZAF
ZWE
NGA
TZA
-1.5
-1
-.5
0
.5
1
1.5
500 1000 2000 4000 8000 16000 32000
y = -3.24+0.35*ln(x) [se=0.04]Correlation=0.71
Excluding NGA and TZA: y = -3.55+0.38*ln(x) [se=0.05]Correlation=0.72
Life Satisfaction
ALB
ARG
AUT
BEL
BGD
BGR
BIH
BLR
CAN
CHL
CHNCZE
DEU
DNK
DZA
EGY ESP
EST
FIN
FRA
GRCHRVHUN
IDN
IND
IRL
IRN
ISL
ISRITA
JOR
JPN
KGZ
KOR
LTU
LUX
LVA
MAR
MDA
MEX
MKD
MLT
NLD
PAK PER
PHL
POL
PRI
PRT
ROMRUS
SAU
SCG
SGP
SVK
SVN
SWE
TUR
UGA
UKR
USA
VENVNM
ZAF
ZWE
NGA
TZA
-1.5
-1
-.5
0
.5
1
1.5
500 1000 2000 4000 8000 16000 32000
y = -1.06+0.12*ln(x) [se=0.06]Correlation=0.26
Excluding NGA and TZA: y = -2.12+0.23*ln(x) [se=0.05]Correlation=0.48
Happiness
Wel
l-be
ing
Inde
x (o
rder
ed p
robi
t)
Real GDP per Capita, PPP (log scale)Dashed line shows linear regression; dotted line shows lowess fit.Source: World Values Survey, 1999-2004 wave.
Subjective Wellbeing and Real GDP per Capita
Happiness v. Life Satisfaction
Stevenson & Wolfers, Economic Growth and Happiness 41
AUSBRA
CAN
DEUFRA
GBR
IND
ITAJPNMEX
USA
-1.5-1.0-0.50.00.51.01.5
500 1000 2000 4000 8000 16000 32000
y = -4.20+0.45*ln(x) [se=0.14]Correlation=0.725
1975Happiness: Kettering
AUS
BRA
CANDEU
FRA
GBR
IND
ITAJPN
MEX USA
500 1000 2000 4000 8000 16000 32000
y = -4.77+0.52*ln(x) [se=0.14]Correlation=0.780
1975Life Satisfaction: Kettering
AUTBEL
BGR
CYPCZE
DEU
DNKESP
EST
FIN
FRAGBRGRC
HUNITA
LTU
LUX
LVA
MLT
POL PRTSVK
SVNSWE
TUR
-1.5-1.0-0.50.00.51.01.5
500 1000 2000 4000 8000 1600032000
y = -5.72+0.58*ln(x) [se=0.07]Correlation=0.852
2003Happiness: Euro_QoL
AUTBEL
BGR
CYPCZE
DEU
DNK
ESP
EST
FIN
FRAGBR
GRC
HUN
IRLITA
LTU
LUX
LVA
MLT
POL PRTSVK
SVN
SWE
TUR
500 1000 2000 4000 8000 16000 32000
y = -8.52+0.86*ln(x) [se=0.10]Correlation=0.870
2003Life Satisfaction: Euro_QoL
AUT
BEL
BGR
CZE
DNK
ESP
EST
FINFRAFRGGBR
GDRGRCHRVHUN
IRL
ITALTU
LUX
LVA
NLD
POLPRT
ROM
SLV
SVK
SWE
TUR
-1.5-1.0-0.50.00.51.01.5
500 1000 2000 4000 80001600032000
y = -4.89+0.49*ln(x) [se=0.12]Correlation=0.642
2006Happiness: Eurobarometer
AUTBEL
BGR
CZE
DNK
ESP
EST
FIN
FRAFRGGBR
GDRGRCHRV
HUN
IRL
ITALTU
LUX
LVA
NLD
POLPRT
ROM
SLV
SVK
SWE
TUR
500 1000 2000 4000 8000 16000 32000
y = -5.92+0.60*ln(x) [se=0.15]Correlation=0.608
2006Life Satisfaction: Eurobarometer
Real GDP per Capita (2000 US$), PPP (log scale)
WVS: Comparing within- and between
Stevenson & Wolfers, Economic Growth and Happiness 42
ALB
ARG
AUT
BEL
BGD
BGR
BIH
BLR
CAN
CHL
CHN
CZE
DEU
DNK
DZAEGY
ESP
EST
FIN
FRA
GBR
GRCHRV
HUN
IDN
IND
IRL
IRN
ISL
ISRITA
JOR
JPNKGZKOR
LTU
LUX
LVA
MAR
MDA
MEX
MKD
MLT
NGA
NLD
PAK
PERPHL
POL
PRI
PRT
ROM
RUS
SAU
SCG
SGP
SVK
SVN
SWE
TUR
TZA
UGA
UKR
USAVEN
VNM
ZAF
ZWE
-1.5
-1
-.5
0
.5
1
Wel
lbei
ng I
ndex
(O
rder
ed P
robi
t)
500 1000 2000 4000 8000 16000 32000
Country-year aggregates
Within country wellbeing gradient
Between country wellbeing gradient
Source: World Values Survey, 1999-2004 wave.
Comparing Within-Country and Between-Country EstimatesIncome and Life Satisfaction
Income and Happiness: Cross-section v. Cross-country
Stevenson & Wolfers, Economic Growth and Happiness 43
ALB
ARG
AUTBEL
BGD
BGR
BIH
BLR
CAN
CHL
CHNCZE
DEU
DNK
DZA
EGY ESP
EST
FIN
FRA
GRCHRVHUN
IDN
IND
IRL
IRN
ISL
ISRITA
JOR
JPN
KGZ
KOR
LTU
LUX
LVA
MAR
MDA
MEX
MKD
MLT
NGA
NLD
PAK PER
PHL
POL
PRI
PRT
ROMRUS
SAU
SCG
SGP
SVK
SVN
SWE
TUR
TZA
UGA
UKR
USA
VENVNM
ZAF
ZWE
-1.5
-1
-.5
0
.5
1
Wel
lbei
ng I
ndex
(O
rder
ed P
robi
t)
500 1000 2000 4000 8000 16000 32000
Country-year aggregates
Within country wellbeing gradient
Between country wellbeing gradient
Source: World Values Survey, 1999-2004 wave.
Comparing Within-Country and Between-Country EstimatesIncome and Happiness
China
Stevenson & Wolfers, Economic Growth and Happiness 44
Very satisfied
Somewhat satisfied
Neither satisfied nor dissatisfied
Somewhat dissatisfied
Very dissatisfied
1994 9% 41% 38% 12% 2%
1997 19% 53% n.a. 20% 7%
1999 19% 50% n.a. 22% 8%
2004 12% 51% n.a. 29% 8%
“Overall how satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way things are going in your life today?”
Happiness and the Output Gap
Stevenson & Wolfers, Economic Growth and Happiness 45
Happiness(right axis)
Output gap (left axis)
-0.10
-0.05
0.00
0.05
0.10
Hap
pine
ss I
ndex
(O
rder
ed P
robi
t Est
imat
es)
-.04
-.02
0
.02
.04
Out
put G
ap (
Shar
e of
GD
P)
Est
imat
ed u
sing
HP
filte
r
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Happiness = 0.00+2.11*Output gap (se=0.45)Correlation=0.69
Happiness and the Output Gap in the United States
U.S. trends by education
Stevenson & Wolfers, Economic Growth and Happiness 46
<Highschool
Highschool grad
Somecollege
Collegegrad
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
Hap
pine
ss: O
rder
ed p
robi
t ind
ex
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
U.S. Happiness trends by Education
U.S. Happiness Trends by Race
Stevenson & Wolfers, Economic Growth and Happiness 47
Blacks
Whites
-0.7
-0.6
-0.5
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
Hap
pine
ss: O
rder
ed p
robi
t ind
ex
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Not shown: 'Other' (cell sizes too small)
U.S. Happiness trends by Race
Gender Happiness Trends in the United States
-.2
0
.2
.4
Hap
pine
ss%
>m
edia
n ha
ppin
ess
/ Est
imat
ed h
appi
ness
inde
x
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
%>Median Happiness: Women Men
Ordered probit index: Women Men Difference
Source: General Social Survey
Happiness in the United States
World Values Survey Changes
Stevenson & Wolfers, Economic Growth and Happiness 49
ALB
ARG
AUS
AUT
BEL
BGD
BGR
BIH
BLR
BRA
CANCHE
CHL
CHN
CZE
DEU
DNK
ESP
EST
FINFRA
GBR
HRV
HUN
IND
IRL
ISL
ITA
JPN
KOR
LTULVA
MDA
MEX
MKD
MLT
NGA
NLD
NOR
PAK
PER
PHL
POL
PRI
PRT
ROM
RUS
SCG
SVKSVN
SWE
TUR
UKR
USA
VEN
ZAF
96
82
82
90
82
96
90
96
90
90
8290
90
90
90
82
82
82
90
9082
82
96
82
90
82
82
82
82
90
9090
96
90
96
82
90
82
82
96
96
96
90
96
90
90
90
96
9090
82
90
96
82
96
90
00
90
96
00
90
00
96
00
96
9690
96
9696
96
90
90
90
96
9690
90
00
90
96
9090
909096
96
96
00
9600
9096
90
90
0000
00
96
00
00
96
96
00
96
96
9096
00
90
00
96
96
00
00
00
00
00
00
0096
00
96
00
00
0096
96
00
00
00
00
96
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
96
00
00
00
00
00
96
00
96
00 00
00
00
00
00
00
00
-1.50
-1.00
-0.50
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50H
appi
ness
500 1000 2000 4000 8000 16000 32000
Happiness
ALB
ARG
AUS AUT
BEL
BGD
BGR
BIH BLR
BRA
CAN
CHE
CHL
CHN
CZE
DEU
DNK
ESP
EST
FIN
FRA
GBR
HRV
HUN
IND
IRL
ISL
ITAJPN
KOR
LTU
LVA
MDA
MEX
MKD
MLT
NGA
NLD
NOR
PER
PHL
POL
PRI
PRT
ROM
RUS
SCG
SVK
SVN
SWE
TUR
UKR
USA
VEN
ZAF
96
82
82 90
82
96
90
96 90
90
82
90
90
90
90
82
82
82
90
90
82
82
96
82
90
82
82
8282
82
90
90
96
90
96
82
90
82
82
96
96
90
96
90
90
90
96
90
90
82
90
96
82
96
90
00
90
96
00
90
00
96
00
96
96
90
96
9696
96
90
90
90
96
96
90
90
00
90
96
9090
90
90
90
9696
00
96
00
90
96
9090
00
00
96
00
00
96
96
00
96
96
90
96
00
9000
96
96
00
00
00
00
00
00
0096
00
96
00
00
00
96
96
00
00
00
00
96
00
00
00
00
00
00
0096
00
00
00
00
00
96
00
96
00
00 00
00
00
00
00
00 00
Lif
e S
atis
fact
ion
500 1000 2000 4000 8000 16000 32000
Life Satisfaction
Wel
lbei
ng I
ndex
(O
rder
ed P
robi
t)
Real GDP per Capita, PPP (2000 $ US; Log scale)82=1981-84 wave; 90=1989-93 wave; 96=1994-99 wave; 00=1999-2004 wave.Dashed line shows slope of regression line through pooled well-being and GDP data across wavesSource: World Values Survey.
Evolution of Well-Being and GDP Through Time
WVS: First diffs
Stevenson & Wolfers, Economic Growth and Happiness 50
ALB96-00ARG82-90
ARG90-96
ARG96-00
AUS82-96
AUT90-00BEL82-90
BEL90-00
BGD96-00
BGR90-96
BGR96-00
BIH96-00
BLR90-96
BLR96-00
BRA90-96
CAN82-90CAN90-00
CHE90-96
CHL90-96
CHL96-00
CHN90-96CHN96-00CZE90-96
CZE96-00
DEU82-90DEU90-96
DEU96-00
DNK82-90
DNK90-00
ESP82-90
ESP90-96
ESP96-00
EST90-96
EST96-00
FIN90-96FIN96-00FRA82-90FRA90-00
GBR82-90
GBR90-96
GBR96-00
HRV96-00
HUN82-90
HUN90-96HUN96-00IND90-96
IND96-00
IRL82-90
IRL90-00
ISL82-90ISL90-00
ITA82-90
ITA90-00JPN82-90
JPN90-96
JPN96-00
KOR82-90
KOR90-00
LTU90-96
LTU96-00
LVA90-96
LVA96-00
MDA96-00
MEX90-96
MEX96-00
MKD96-00
MLT82-90
MLT90-00
NGA90-96
NGA96-00
NLD82-90NLD90-00
NOR82-90
NOR90-96PER96-00
PHL96-00 POL90-96POL96-00
PRI96-00
PRT90-00
ROM90-96
ROM96-00
RUS90-96
RUS96-00
SCG96-00
SVK90-96
SVK96-00
SVN90-96
SVN96-00
SWE82-90
SWE90-96SWE96-00TUR90-96
TUR96-00
UKR96-00
USA82-90USA90-96USA96-00
VEN96-00
ZAF90-96
ZAF96-00
-.5
-.25
0
.25
.5
Cha
nge
in W
ellb
eing
Ind
ex (
Ord
ered
Pro
bit)
-.5 -.25 0 .25 .5 .75%Change in Real GDP per Capita, PPP
Source: World Values Survey. 82=1981-84 wave; 90=1989-93 wave; 96=1994-99 wave; 00=1999-2004 wave.
Economic Growth and Changes in Life Satisfaction
International Panel Data
Stevenson & Wolfers, Economic Growth and Happiness 51
Each cell reports coefficient from a regression: Well-beingc,t = log (GDP per capitaβ c,t)
Microdata Estimates(Respondent observations)
Macro Estimates(Country-wave obs)
Sample
Dep Var:Life Satisfaction (WVS)
All things considered, how satisfied are you with your life as a whole these days? [1] Dissatisfied – [10] Satisfied
Levels 0.317***
(0.036)0.339***
(0.031)259,165
(182 country-waves) Levels | Country FE 0.159**
(0.078)0.155**
(0.078)259,165
(182 country-waves) Levels | Country and Wave FE
0.265**
(0.110)0.251**
(0.100)259,165
(182 country-waves) First Differences n.a. 0.412***
(0.109)101 diffs
Long Differences 0.169(0.116)
0.180(0.113)
150,952(110 cty-waves= 55 diffs)
Happiness (WVS) Taking all things together, would you say you are: [4] Very happy; [3] Quite happy; [2] Not very happy; [1] Not at all happy.
Levels 0.168***
(0.043)0.181***
(0.035)253,986
(182 country-waves) Levels | Country FE 0.290***
(0.075)0.281***
(0.099)253,986
(182 country-waves) Levels | Country and Wave FE
0.033(0.103)
0.008(0.127)
253,986(182 country-waves)
First Differences 0.073(0.134)
101 diffs
Long Differences -0.015 (0.109)
-0.026(0.126)
152,452(112 cty-waves= 56 diffs)