ECONOMIC GROWTH 2 nd part : Applications
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Transcript of ECONOMIC GROWTH 2 nd part : Applications
Why are some countries richer than others?
• Part 1: capital accumulation and innovation benefit economic growth
• Next question: Why do some countries accumulate more and innovate more?
A few answers
• Geography: latitude, climate, etc.
• Institutions: political, legal, etc.
• Culture: trust, values, etc.
• United growth theory
• Finance
Textbook
• Aghion and Howitt, « The economics of growth », 2009
Organization of the course
• Part 2 counts for half of the grade
• No exam
• 3 papers to review
• Send the reviews to [email protected]
• Deadline: 1st June 2011 23:59
What is a review?
• 1. Question of the paper
• 2. Summary of the paper
• 3. Main contribution of the paper and relationship to the literature (attending the class helps)
• 4. Critique of the paper:– Limits– Extensions
What is a GOOD review?
• 2-3 pages long
• Clear and concise
• Shows you understood the paper
• Shows you understand the contribution and limits of the paper
• Shows you worked on the material presented in class
The first paper
• James Feyrer & Bruce Sacerdote, 2009. "Colonialism and Modern Income: Islands as Natural Experiments," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 91(2), pages 245-262, November.
• Can be found on the webpage of James Feyrer (Darmouth College)
The second paper
• F. Allen, J. Qian and M. Qian, "Law, Finance and Economic Growth in China,” Journal of Financial Economics, 77 (2005), 57-116.
• Can be found on the PERSONAL webpage of Franklin Allen (Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania)
The third paper
• Davide Cantoni, « The Economic Effects of the Protestant Reformation: Testing the Weber Hypothesis in the German Lands » , Working paper, December 2010
• Can be found on the webpage of Davide Cantoni (University Pompeu Fabra)
Geography
Some facts
1. Effort
• The Spirit of the Laws, Montesquieu (1748):
"The heat of the climate can be so excessive that the body there will be absolutely without strength. So, prostration will pass even to the spirit; no curiosity, no noble enterprise, no generous sentiment; inclinations will all be passive there; laziness there will be happiness"
2. Agriculture
• Tropical climates are less appropriate for agriculture:– Too hot– Too dry– Diseases
3. Diseases
• Tropical climates are more prone to diseases, like malaria
• Higher mortality/lower life expectancy– Lower saving and investment– Lower human capital
Caveats
• All these theories are plausible
• Major problem with this literature:– Correlations, not causality– Difficult to have natural experiments with
geography
Institutions
What are institutions?
• Institutions = rules of the game– Market (barriers to entry)– Property rights– Constitutions– Courts
Institutions vs geography
• Institutions and geography are both correlated with GDP
• BUT, do they cause GDP?
• We need natural experiments to answer that question
The Korean experiment
The Korean experiment
• After 1948, Korea was divided in two countries
• North Korea was socialist– No property rights
• South Korea was democratic– Property rights
• Geography was held constant
• BUT, need for more evidence
The colonial experiment
• Starting from the 15th century, Europeans colonized many countries
• They installed different institutions
• Geography was held constant
The Colonial experiment
• Two papers by Acemoglu, Johnson, and Robinson exploited this experiment:– “The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development: An
Empirical Investigation”, (2001) (Part I)– “Reversal of Fortune: Geography and Institutions in the Making
of the Modern World Income Distribution”, (2002) (Part II)• The literature on legal origins also exploits it (Part III)
– Colonized countries adopted the legal origins of their colonizer– Common law: anglo saxon world– Civil law: French (South America+french speaking Africa+latin
Europe), Scandinavian, German (german speaking + Japan+Korea+Eastern Europe)
Culture
What is culture?
• Religion• Values
– Preference for Redistribution (Alesina & coauthors)– Corruption and Civic Attitudes (Fisman & Miguel
2007)– Female Labor Force Participation (Raquel Fernandez
& coauthors) • Beliefs
– Pro-Market Attitudes (DiTella et al, QJE 07; Landier, Thesmar and Thoenig, Economic Policy, 2008)
– Trust• Etc.
How do you measure culture?
• You ask people what their culture is• Biggest database: World Values Survey
– -267'870 individual observations from 82 countries spread over 4 waves 1981-84 (21), 1989-93 (43), 1994-99 (54) & 2000-04 (70)
– Sample size: between 1000 and 1400 individuals by country/wave
– 817 questions in total + individual characteristics!– available for free on the Internet
• Example: Trust– “Generally speaking, would you say that most people trusted or
that you can't be too careful in dealing with people?”
Brief history
• Max Weber (1905): The Protestant Ethic and the Spirit of Capitalism– Protestants are more motivated by economic
gains than catholics
• Otherwise, culture and economics is a NEW field
Economic consequences of culture
• Arrow (1972): “Virtually every commercial transaction has within itself an element of trust.”
• Gambetta (1988) on trust: “When we say we trust someone or that someone is trustworthy, we implicitly mean that the probability that he will perform an action that is beneficial … is high enough for us to consider in engaging in some form of cooperation with him.”
Caveat
• Again, correlation, not causality
• Solutions:– Inherited trust (Algan Cahuc 09)– Use theory to predict (not prove) causality
(Doepke Zilibotti 08)